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WN/FL Route Consolidation/Station Elimination  
User currently offlinetxagkuwait From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1803 posts, RR: 43
Posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13554 times:

I noticed a similar topic yesterday, and I found the subject matter interesting. I did a bit of research beyond just looking at route maps but by the time I came back to reply, the thread had disappeared. Oh well.

I printed out the FL system timetable for the March/April time frame and started looking at markets and frequencies. I factored in the DL drawdown of mainline service in/out of Memphis and looked at the O&D traffic to selected destinations to and from Memphis. I tried to put myself in Gary Kelley's shoes and consider what I was going to do when the acquisition closes and I own FL.

I'll apologize in advance - the schedule print was small and I couldn't find my reading glasses. I may have messed up the frequency in a few markets - especially when they have a flight that operates 1257 or 246. I also did a bit of "fractional" calculation along those lines. All things considered, a review of the timetable was enlightening to say the least.

Lots of a.netters think that WN has never opened a station with less than 8 or more flights per day. In the early days (Texas intrastate from 1975 - when they opened HRL as the first new station after the original 3 to the first outside-the-state-forays {MSY,OKC,TUL,ABQ,MCI, and even LIT} the standard was 4 flights per day. It requires some creativity with staffing but I see no reason why WN can not or will not run stations with 4 flights per day. The economics have to work but there is no hard-and-fast rule that says that a 4 flight station can't make money.

Let's look at the FL stations and see what they have and see what WN might do....

Akron: Has 4 to ATL, 1 to BOS, 2 to LGA, 2 to MKE, 2 to MCO, 1 to TPA. That's 12 trips. No problem. I'm not sure if they'll keep the LGA flights - I expect WN will want to use those slots for the highest yielding market they can find. If that happens to be CAK - no problem. I'm just not certain it will be. WN also hates (except in special circumstances) markets with a single flight per day. That kind of jerks the one day commuting business traveler around. So I might expect another BOS flight each way per day. Adding 2xMDW, 2xBWI, or a single daily LAS flight are also realistic possibilities.

Allentown: Has a flight to FLL and a flight to MCO. It isn't far enough away from PHL or BWI. I doubt that WN will want to try to go 2xATL each way and I think they really need 4 trips a day. They might try a shot at 2xMDW and 1xTPA tp see what will happen. Otherwise, ABE will fall by the wayside.

Aruba: Doesn;t matter how many trips per day. The international is one of the reasons WN is spending the $$$ for FL.

Asheville: 1 trip daily to MCO. It's too close to a lot of other stations with service. To quote Karl Marx (no relation to Groucho) you can toss it on the ash heap of history, it's gone.

Atlanta: The other main reason for the purcha$e. 200ish trips a day. Connecting the WN dots with ATL is going to keep WN, former FL employees, and Boeing busy for quite a while.

Atlantic City: PeoplExpress made it work. FL seems to be making it work. They have 2xATL. I'm not sure what else you can do with it. NK generates a lot of traffic to Florida. So maybe we add 2xMCO, 1xRSW, 1xTPA, 1xFLL. That gets us to 7 trips a day. Considering the current mindset of the boys and girls at Love Field, maybe 2xDEN (or 1xDEN, 1XMDW) for connections to/from the West Coast. I say WN keeps it and it evolves to a 8-10 trip per day station.

Baltimore: Combining the operations is no big problem, BOS, FLL, MCO, TPA frequencies are about the only thing that will have to be tweaked. I'm not certain WN retains the LAX nonstop, though.

Bloomington: 3 trips a day to Atlanta and a less than daily flight to MCO. WN makes the MCO trip daily and they keep it as a 4 flight per day station.

Boston: Tweaking the frequencies to BWI won't be too much of a challenge, I am not certain that they will keep the once a day flight to PHF. What you might very well see is the destination changed to Norfolk and the frequency go to twice a day.

Branson: once day to Atlanta. I'm not sure what to do with Branson. Would it generate enough traffic in 4 directions (ATL, HOU, MDW, DEN) to support 4 trips per day? HOWEVER, Missouri is a Wright Amendment state. Southwest can legally come out of Dallas Love Field to Branson as an intermediate stop and go anywhere. Thus, it might get a chance to prove itself as an intermediate point on something like DAL-BKG-MDW or DAL-BKG-RDU or DAL-BKG-BWI.

Buffalo: 3 trips to Atlanta. Just put 'em on WN's arrival/departure board. No big deal. Operations easy to integrate.

Cancun: Expect to see, before too long, requests for additional routes to/from Cancun.

Charleston WV: It gets less than daily service to a single destination. This will likely be the first station gone.

Charlotte: 3 a day to ATL and 2 a day to BWI. If WN/FL can get gate space, I could envision this becoming a much larger station. I would expect WN to link it to BNA and MDW for starters. I have no clue as to what gate space is like there - but 3 or 4 gates would enable WN to operate 40+/- trips a day and I don't think they would have any trouble finding places to connect to CLT.

Chicago: 7 a day to Atlanta may not be enough but it'll do for starters. 3 to RSW and 4 to MCO can be balanced with what WN already has.

Dallas-Fort Worth. CLOSED. That was 6 trips a day to ATL and 1 to MCO. But not all is lost! Until the Wright Amendment completely goes away, Dallas travelers can schlep out to convenient Love Field for 1-stops. New 1-stops to expect: DAL-JAN-ATL (2x); DAL-LIT-ATL (2x); DAL-MSY-ATL (3x) (may have to up frequency between MSY & ATL); DAL-BHM-ATL (let's see if there is any market between BHM and ATL if priced correctly. It's only 140 miles or so on I-20 but ATL traffic can be horrendous. Right now the AVERAGE fare between ATL & BHM is $334 one way on DL so it isn't really surprising that there are only 18 O&D psgrs in the market each day. A walkup fare of a hundred bucks and an advance purchase fare of $49 or so might encourage a few more folks to leave the car at home. The MCO trip is done/can be done via HOU, MSY, BHM, or JAN. Another possibility is DAL-HSV-ATL or maybe DAL-HSV-DCA.

Dayton: 8 trips a day already. 3 each to ATL and BWI, 1 each to TPA and MCO. This station looks like it was designed by WN for WN. The only thing missing right now is service to MDW/. Only 55 O&D psgrs per day between Chicago and Dayton. It is 240 miles and the average fare is $315, which might have done quite a bit towards stifling demand. I would suggest that WN will try a couple of daily round trips between Dayton & Midway.

Denver: 3 to ATL and 1 to MKE. I see no real changes in the work except it might require doubling the DEN-ATL frequency, simply because WN offers so much more in the way of connecting possibilities at Denver.

Des Moines: Twice a day to Milwaukee and a less than daily frequency to Orlando. What in the world in WN gonna do in a place like that? Add 3 round trips a day to Chicago for a walk up fare of $149 and an advance purchase fare of $59, for starters. Right now United gets an average fare of ~$245 each way and it is only 300 miles or so. Add a trip to Phoenix, a trip to Denver, and a couple to ATL. Make the MCO flight daily. Voila'. Instant WN station.

Detroit: 3 or 4 trips to ATL and a couple to Orlando every day. Intergrates seamlessly into the WN network.

Fort Lauderdale: No real issues integrating the WN & FL operations and the only question marks remain ABE and MDT.

Fort Myers: Combined, the two carriers will have around 40 flights a day. This is actually a bigger FL station than it is for WN. They totally complement each other (no duplication) except for the BWI & MDW pieces. Maybe a bit of a tweak to frequency across there. Then again, if both carriers are filling their flights up across there then there is no need to reduce.

Grand Rapids: It is 137 miles to Chicago as the crow flies, but if the crow is having to drive, then it is almost 190 miles. Think Houston to San Antonio. There is not much O&D between GRR and Chicagoland - 49 psgrs/day - but that might have something to do with an average fare in the market of $279 one way. I predict that WN keeps GRR, and adds 2 MDW to the current 2xBWI, 1xMCO and 1xTPA. That would get them to 6 trips a day. Throw in a DEN flight and a PHX or LAS flight (both decent markets, and both of which offer decent connections to all of WN's western destinations) and you have a typical 8 flight per day WN station.

Harrisburg: 1xFLL and 1xMCO won't cut it. I think WN would like to keep it, and would if they could find a way to run 6 trips a day from there. Or maybe even 4. But ultimately I don't think they can and I think Harrisburg goes away.

Houston: 6 trips to Atlanta daily. No problem. WN employees might not even notice until they get assigned a gate to work the Atlanta flight (Gee, when did we start flying there?). Frequency might have to be upped, as folks flying as thru passengers ATL-HOU-SAN or ATL-HOU-OAK occupy enough seats to make capacity an issue. Heck, they might even route some stuff DAL-HOU-ATL.

Huntsville: 2 a day to BWI and 1 time a day to MCO won't cut it, and it is awfully close to Birmingham. Still, there is a lot of governmental business traffic that flows in and out of there. You can probably double the BWI service simply by going DAL-HSV-BWI (which is a legal thru flight) and that gets you to 7 daily trips. You can probably double the MCO frequency, too, if you were to route them MDW-HSV-MCO. or maybe 1 each MDW-HSV-MCO and MDW-HSV-TPA. If you can capture enough thru traffic, then it doesn't kill you to stop in HSV and pick up 45-60 more folks (see:DAL-AMA-DEN). I bet WN gives something along these lines a try. They won't kill it without a trial.

Indianapolis: Adding FL's 20 or so trips a day to the current WN schedule presents no problem.

Kansas City: 3 to Atlanta and 1 to Orlando. Totally complementary. No problems.

Key West: You know, in your heart, that WN wants to keep this station. FL serves it with a daily RT to TPA and a daily RT to MCO. It would be a terrific station for folks to use their Rapids Rewards tickets to get to. IF there is a domestic exception to 4 trips a day, this is it. I don't think there is much they can do with it, although the increased connection opportunities on the WN network might allow WN to double their frequency. 2xMCO and 2xTPA would make everyone happy.

Knoxville: One time a day to Orlando won't cut it. There's no place to go that will support a 717 or a 737 and even if they were economical to operate, nobody wants to fly on a Convair 600. Southwest would love nothing better than to seize Tennessee - west, middle, and east side - but Knoxville isn't going to work.

Las Vegas: Adding 4 ATL and 3 MKE trips to WN's LAS operation will be like a new baby for parents who alreadyhave 20 children. Nobody will notice an increase at all. Seamless integration.

Lexington: See Knoxville. It's gone.

Los Angeles: The 3 ATL flights stay. They might even up the frequency if need be. The BWI flight? Who knows? That is a bit longer a nonstop than what WN really likes to offer.

Memphis: 4 a day to Atlanta. DL cutting mainline capacity. Memphis isn't renowned for great O&D traffic. That might have something to do with prevailing fares. MDW to MEM picks up a couple of daily flights and the average fare gets cut in half from what UA currently gets. You might see a trip or two MSY-MEM-STL. WN will try to figure out a way to link MEM up with its western markets - whether they do it via HOU or DEN or LAS or PHX or some combination thereof is anybody's guess. Memphis is definitely a keeper, and it will grow. WN will do it not because they are trying to hurt DL - they will do it because you have a community of size with depressed O&D traffic due to high fares (349 mile jaunt to MSY has an average fare of $301 each way). WN will run 4 or 5 trips a day at DAL-LIT fares just as soon as the Wright Amendment goes away for good.

Miami: Huh? 1 flight daily? to BWI? Why? Miami won't be on the WN route map.

Milwaukee: WN will keep what both they and FL have, adjust frequencies as needed, and proceed to build MKE without cannibalizing MDW. I don't think they have similar catchment areas, anyway.

Minneapolis. 4 to Atlanta and 3 to Milwaukee and I don't see things changing once these flights are operated by WN.

Moline: Less than daily to Fort Myers and Orlando. Probably closed before a WN flight ever calls in range there.

Montego Bay: Again, regardless of frequency, this is one of the main reasons WN is buying FL.

Nassau: See Montego Bay.

New Orleans: More frequency to Atlanta. Possibly service to Memphis. MSY makes a pretty good intermediate/connecting point (change planes w/o the hassle of a hub) so you may see WN add some more west coast service - capture MSY O&D and provide additional lift out of Atlanta. Integrating FL into WN here should be a picnic based upon WN's historically important role and robust size in/out of Nawlins.

Newport News: Do they close it and consolidate everything to ORF? Maybe. Do they close ORF and move it all to PHF? That's possible too. I don't see anything going away - except maybe the LGA flights, if WN decides they can use the LGA slots to make more money someplace else. That will certainly be true once WN gets the 738s and can run 175 seat planes out of slot restricted places like LGA. I also see BOS getting a second trip from the ORF/PHF area - WN hates to put 1 trip a day on business heavy routes since it eliminates the possibility of up-and-back trips.

Omaha: 2 trips to MKE. With WN marketing, make that a third trip there daily. Nothing else changes in Omaha except the Huskers are moving to the Big 10 - a move they'll undoubtedly live to regret.

Orlando: Adjust frequencies as needed. AVL, TYS, CRW, LEX, MLI are going away:

Pensacola: 3 trips a day to ATL. Let's add maybe a couple to MSY or HOU to provide westbound connections and see what happens. It doesn't get eliminated despite the proximity to ECP unless it violates the terms of WN's ECP subsidy agreement. if so, then ECP gets a couple of daily ATL nonstops.

Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh: Minimal change as WN absorbs the FL frequencies esp. the ATL flights with no indigestion at all.

Portland Maine: Gets a 3rd BWI flight daily. They'll need it to connect with a much more robust WN menu of connecting cities. Maybe even a 4th. Add a couple of Florida nonstops. B6 seems to do okay out of there. WN can compete with B6. B6 had no qualms about sneaking in to Austin. WN will have no qualms about sneaking in to Portland, ME. They keep it, at least for a decent trial.

Punta Cana: See Montego Bay.

Raleigh/Durham: ATL is a wonderful addition to WN's offerings out of RDU. Might very well have to add frequencies. Don't forget WN's pricing model is different than FL. FL has a walk up fare of $274 (before tax) and it still carries with it a $75 change fee. It is 356 miles. Southwest's 349 mile DEN-ABQ has a walkup fare (fully refundable) of $152 before taxes. Houston to Jackson (359 miles) is $172. Southwest will waste little time changing the FL pricing model to match their own - fewer ultra cheap advance purchase tickets, and a lot lower walk up fare. If you are after the business traveler - and WN is - you earn their business by avoiding the price gouge and not nickeling and diming them to death with fees.

Richmond: Give them a 2nd MCO trip, give them a couple of trips to Midway, and you have a WN station with 8 flights per day (they already have 4 to Atlanta).

Rochester: has 6 trips a day - 2xBWI, 2xATL, 1xMCO, 1xTPA. Rochester survives the cut. WN adds a couple of daily trips to MDW to access the western network and, once again, you have a 8 flight per day WN station.

St. Louis/San Antonio: Only noticeable change will be the aircraft paint scheme and the fact that the ATL flights are now operated by WN. Easily integrated operations.

San Francisco: Two trips a day to MKE and two to ATL. WN can merge them in to their SFO operation. OR WN may elect to move these over to Oakland, which is also easy enough to do BUT it provides a lot more connectability.

San Juan: Has 6 trips a day, and I don't see that being reduced. Increased, perhaps. To other WN stations, sure.

Sarasota: Seems to work for FL so WN doesn;t mess with it too much. Maybe increase the BOS flight to daily. Look at demand. Look at where folks are actually going beyond Atlanta. It might support some stuff like PVD-SRQ or BUF-SRQ.

Seattle: One a day to MKE? If it is carrying good loads, WN will keep it and build on it. If not, well......it's not like WN is going to close SEA. I see them trying to weave several decent SEA-ATL 1 stops at convenient intermediate points. Denver comes to mind. Maybe STL.

Tunica: less than daily service to ATL gets reduced to zero service to ATL. If they want to go to Tunica, let them eat cake, then fly to Memphis.

Washington National: Does WN get to keep the slots? If so they may pare back MKE to add some MDW, no change to ATL, and probably ditch the MCO in favor of something with better yields than Florida.

Dulles: 4 trips a day to Atlanta meshes well with WN's existing schedule there. No change.

West Palm Beach: 3 trips a day to Atlanta mixes nicely with the existing WN schedule. Again, no change.

I apologize profusely for the length of this post....but to do a real analysis one has to look at all the stations, where the flights go, and how many on each route each day etc etc. Merging the two route maps is far too simplistic.

At any rate, the addition of ATL to a robust WN network is worth a lot.

Despite the chronic naysayers, an airline cannot make a living off of 15 or 20 folks up front who most likely got those seats via a mileage upgrade. It is the folks in Y....."the main cabin"....who pay the bills. There are just far too many of them.

You can believe otherwise but do so at your own risk - WN offers a superior Y experience to DL. The only thing DL can trumpet is an assigned seat. WN can sell (and already provides) more pitch, a fleet that is adding wireless internet capability, a very user friendly website, no change fee, no baggage fee. I am not sure if DLNW outsources their res to a foreign country but all of WN's res agents are in the United States and there is no extra charge to book a seat with a person instead of online.

WN is not all corny singing flight attendants and lame jokes. It has probably been 18 months since I've been on a flight with someone who sang, and that was a FA who led the cabin in singing "Happy Birthday" to an 87 yr old woman on her way to see her grandkids as we made our descent in to San Antonio. What I do get is a beverage service, with frequent refills, with no charge for peanuts or cheese nips or other Nabisco snacks (I do miss the Lorna Doone breakfast out of El Paso, although the cinnamon grahams aren't bad). Check in online, get an A boarding pass, and life looks good. Big plane, lots of room, no shortage of bin space, and FAs who care. I gave up my window seat for a mom with a kid and the FA told me whatever I wanted to drink during the entire flight was on the house. She was amused when I told her to bring me a Dr Pepper on the rocks, and keep 'em coming.

FL has been a worthy competitor for DL for many years but they don't have quite the same mindset as the folks from Dallas. WN wants pricing power, and to do that they need market share dominance. Not for the entire station.....but for the O&D on selected routes.

WN will not conquer ATL, but they will make it a lot more interesting place with quite a bit more choice and their historically reasonable walk up fares will create some turbulence within the marketplace. Look at the markets now where DL has 2/3rds and FL has 1/3rd of the local traffic. WN's goal will to make those markets much more of a 50/50 split. Look at Denver, look at DFW-MCI and DFW-STL before/after WN got the authority to operate those nonstops. Everyone in DFW is addicted to AAdvantage miles but that didn't prevent WN from growing the market and ultimately capturing over 50% of both.

History is not a sure predictor of what will happen but if we study it, and pay a bit of attention, it will provide us with some clues. WN is not a bug DL can squash.

[Edited 2011-02-07 20:34:52]

114 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4646 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13515 times:

As long as PVD-ATL gets added sooner rather than later!

Also with some aircraft freed up from consolidation and a smaller station formula, I wonder if we could see a few additional new stations like an SYR pop up with something like 3x BWI 2x MDW 1x MCO 1x TPA

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Miami: Huh? 1 flight daily? to BWI? Why? Miami won't be on the WN route map.

You dont think they could easily grow MIA into something like 3x BWI, 3x ATL, 2x MDW 2x HOU?



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2740 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13492 times:

Very interesting...

Good job with all the detail and big picture.

The only quirk that I can find here is Branson. Remember that it's a private airport, and it doesn't have to follow the rules of other airports. I thinks that it's a toss-up as to what can happen here...


User currently offlineatrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5692 posts, RR: 52
Reply 3, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13490 times:

This is great!

Thanks for that!

What do we do to cities that only saw the OO service to MKE on FL Side? Does WN replace them?

Perfect example you mentioned STL, and yes we have ATL on FL but we have STL-MKE also, and it is a strong market for FL/OO, do we see WN replace it and STL-MKE with 737, 717 or is it dropped?

I thought I read FL was dropping MIA anyway before the merger? Did this not happen or just a rumor?
Alex

[Edited 2011-02-07 20:44:59]


Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2052 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13372 times:

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Aruba: Doesn;t matter how many trips per day. The international is one of the reasons WN is spending the $$$ for FL

It will have to grow to remain in the WN system. They may want to add international flying, but it will have to grow into a station like the ones below. I think it will take four a day for these international stations to stay in the system.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Cancun: Expect to see, before too long, requests for additional routes to/from Cancun.
Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Montego Bay:
Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Nassau
Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Punta Cana:

All of them will support single flights from multiple cities, especially in spring break and vacation season. I think it's more likely to see the flights spread out, one from each of several cities, than to see them add frequencies solely from one location.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Fort Lauderdale: No real issues integrating the WN & FL operations and the only question marks remain ABE and MDT

ABE is gone due to PHL and EWR, makes no sense to grow that station to a higher level and makes more sense to shutter it.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Harrisburg: 1xFLL and 1xMCO won't cut it. I think WN would like to keep it, and would if they could find a way to run 6 trips a day from there. Or maybe even 4. But ultimately I don't think they can and I think Harrisburg goes away.

MDT is gone. Too close to PHL and BWI for it to grow. WN already gets a pretty good number of people from the MDT area driving to PHL and BWI, there is no benefit to growing the station.


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4234 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13300 times:

Interesting post, I will try to add my own thoughts.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Akron: Has 4 to ATL, 1 to BOS, 2 to LGA, 2 to MKE, 2 to MCO, 1 to TPA. That's 12 trips. No problem. I'm not sure if they'll keep the LGA flights - I expect WN will want to use those slots for the highest yielding market they can find. If that happens to be CAK - no problem. I'm just not certain it will be. WN also hates (except in special circumstances) markets with a single flight per day. That kind of jerks the one day commuting business traveler around. So I might expect another BOS flight each way per day. Adding 2xMDW, 2xBWI, or a single daily LAS flight are also realistic possibilities.

CAK is not far from CLE. What I think will happen though is LGA freq will shift to BWI, MKE to MDW, and BOS bye bye.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Asheville: 1 trip daily to MCO. It's too close to a lot of other stations with service. To quote Karl Marx (no relation to Groucho) you can toss it on the ash heap of history, it's gone.

The closest pre merger station to AVL on the WN side is actually GSP, and there are not that many stations near there that are close as you put it. That being said, one daily MCO won't cut it for a WN operation, and with O and D not being much at all I also see this going bye bye. If they can make a couple of flights to BWI work, this may have a chance since many airports are still a drive from AVL though. I doubt it though.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):


Charleston WV: It gets less than daily service to a single destination. This will likely be the first station gone.

I am not convinced WN can't make CRW work, but it would likely be with just 717s and a mix of BWI, MDW and ATL.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Dayton: 8 trips a day already. 3 each to ATL and BWI, 1 each to TPA and MCO. This station looks like it was designed by WN for WN. The only thing missing right now is service to MDW/. Only 55 O&D psgrs per day between Chicago and Dayton. It is 240 miles and the average fare is $315, which might have done quite a bit towards stifling demand. I would suggest that WN will try a couple of daily round trips between Dayton & Midway.

Agreed, and DAY coming online greatly reduces the chances of WN coming to CVG anytime soon.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Knoxville: One time a day to Orlando won't cut it. There's no place to go that will support a 717 or a 737 and even if they were economical to operate, nobody wants to fly on a Convair 600. Southwest would love nothing better than to seize Tennessee - west, middle, and east side - but Knoxville isn't going to work.
Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Lexington: See Knoxville. It's gone.

These are both college towns, and have bigger population bases than you think. DL fills mainline planes to ATL from TYS, plus if you look at other carriers maps, LEX sees a significant share of pax. TYS I think stays. Although SDF is not a long drive from LEX, I think WN can make LEX work too.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Memphis: 4 a day to Atlanta. DL cutting mainline capacity. Memphis isn't renowned for great O&D traffic. That might have something to do with prevailing fares. MDW to MEM picks up a couple of daily flights and the average fare gets cut in half from what UA currently gets. You might see a trip or two MSY-MEM-STL. WN will try to figure out a way to link MEM up with its western markets - whether they do it via HOU or DEN or LAS or PHX or some combination thereof is anybody's guess. Memphis is definitely a keeper, and it will grow. WN will do it not because they are trying to hurt DL - they will do it because you have a community of size with depressed O&D traffic due to high fares (349 mile jaunt to MSY has an average fare of $301 each way). WN will run 4 or 5 trips a day at DAL-LIT fares just as soon as the Wright Amendment goes away for good.

With US pulling cutting the MEM-PHX route, WN probably moves right in on that route. HOU is a given, as is ATL, and probably MDW as well.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Charlotte: 3 a day to ATL and 2 a day to BWI. If WN/FL can get gate space, I could envision this becoming a much larger station. I would expect WN to link it to BNA and MDW for starters. I have no clue as to what gate space is like there - but 3 or 4 gates would enable WN to operate 40+/- trips a day and I don't think they would have any trouble finding places to connect to CLT.

Gate space in CLT is real tight. Except for B6 (Who uses a common use gate in D), all the CLT airlines not named USAirways are in A, and there is just very little gate space in A. While I see a few round trips in CLT, it is not going to become a major station for WN at all.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Los Angeles: The 3 ATL flights stay. They might even up the frequency if need be. The BWI flight? Who knows? That is a bit longer a nonstop than what WN really likes to offer.

The one issue in LAX is WN is running out of space in Terminal 1. One solution could be to move US to Terminal 2 (With NW gone there should be room there for them), but who knows.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Washington National: Does WN get to keep the slots? If so they may pare back MKE to add some MDW, no change to ATL, and probably ditch the MCO in favor of something with better yields than Florida.

Since WN doesn't even have DCA slots to begin with they will get to keep them without issue, and the precident was set anyways when US got to keep the old HP slots despite already having more DCA slots than anyone. DCA will get MDW, HOU, ATL, and possibly BNA I would think. MKE will be dropped, and I think Florida flying will be left at IAD and BWI.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Huntsville: 2 a day to BWI and 1 time a day to MCO won't cut it, and it is awfully close to Birmingham. Still, there is a lot of governmental business traffic that flows in and out of there. You can probably double the BWI service simply by going DAL-HSV-BWI (which is a legal thru flight) and that gets you to 7 daily trips. You can probably double the MCO frequency, too, if you were to route them MDW-HSV-MCO. or maybe 1 each MDW-HSV-MCO and MDW-HSV-TPA. If you can capture enough thru traffic, then it doesn't kill you to stop in HSV and pick up 45-60 more folks (see:DAL-AMA-DEN). I bet WN gives something along these lines a try. They won't kill it without a trial.

With all the NASA ties here, HOU is almost a given as well. Also, HSV commands some of the highest fares in the country (I think they were number 1 in average fare), not something WN will walk away from.


User currently offlinewilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1260 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 13262 times:

Tx, I have read your stuff for years,you know what you are talking about. However, Delta has been competing with SWA for years at Salt Lake City. DL will keep the status the quo, because of the feed that SWA can't touch. SWA doesn't care cities that too small for 717. Not to mention the loyalty DL has built up over the years in the ATL.

SWA will do some damage. ATL,delays and all will be an anchor in the SWA network for the same reason it is for DL. A great O&D city and hub location. It will be interesting to see SWA add FL's destinations and connect the dots, more so than FL could.

Didn't FL fly to Gulfport/Biloxi? I don't see why both Pensacola and Panama City could not be linked to ATL.

SWA may look at Memphis as a diamond in the rough. With DL pulling back there, Memphis has the making of being a focus city,ala Nashville. Memphis to STL, MDW, HOU,MSY,and ATL at a minimum. FDX employees traveling will no doubt give SWA some love. Keep your eye on Memphis.


User currently offlinedbo861 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 13205 times:

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Des Moines: Twice a day to Milwaukee and a less than daily frequency to Orlando. What in the world in WN gonna do in a place like that? Add 3 round trips a day to Chicago for a walk up fare of $149 and an advance purchase fare of $59, for starters. Right now United gets an average fare of ~$245 each way and it is only 300 miles or so. Add a trip to Phoenix, a trip to Denver, and a couple to ATL. Make the MCO flight daily. Voila'. Instant WN station.

Des Moinesians have been frothing at the mouth for Southwest service for years. Unfortunately, as much as I would LOVE to see WN stay the course in my hometown, I'm not very optimistic. It seems too easy for them to drop the existing Airtran service and leave DSM in the dust. First of all..Airtran has only been serving DSM for just over 2 years. I think we all agree the Skywest flying out of MKE will disappear almost instantly once the merger(buyout) is finalized. Which leaves the weekend only service to MCO..not much to cling to here.

If they did stay, I agree with MDW, ATL, and possibly PHX.

MDW is a given due to the close proximity to DSM. Throw in ATL and you have excellent east and southeast connecting opportunities.

PHX would be a home run as their only competition would be US which flies CRJs on this route. PHX is also one of the most popular destinations from DSM, especially in the springtime.

DEN, I could see it happening, but there's also competition from Frontier and United on this route. Frontier would be the loser here, but there is a large United customer base in DSM. On the other hand, it would provide west coast connecting opportunities for Southwest passengers.

I wouldn't expect Southwest to grow beyond those 4 cities in the beginning, and obviously don't expect DSM ever to be a large station for them. I personally believe Southwest would be very successful in DSM, due to their cheaper airfares and lack of regional jets; 2 of the biggest complaints about existing travel options I hear from Des Moines travellers, who are all too willing to drive the 2-3 hours to OMA or MCI for a better deal.


User currently offlineCitrus737ROC From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 31 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 13195 times:

ROC also has RSW 4x a week next month, as well as an occasional 3rd ATL and BWI depending on the year. I'm hoping that ROC does make the cut, will be easier for me to get home when needed!!  

User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1294 posts, RR: 12
Reply 9, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 13145 times:

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Charlotte: 3 a day to ATL and 2 a day to BWI. If WN/FL can get gate space, I could envision this becoming a much larger station. I would expect WN to link it to BNA and MDW for starters. I have no clue as to what gate space is like there - but 3 or 4 gates would enable WN to operate 40+/- trips a day and I don't think they would have any trouble finding places to connect to CLT.

See below. There is no gate space. Also WN started GSP and CHS this year. Two small cities ahead of CLT. This should show you that WN does not have any big intentions of making CLT a destination in the near future.

Quoting apodino (Reply 5):
Gate space in CLT is real tight. Except for B6 (Who uses a common use gate in D), all the CLT airlines not named USAirways are in A, and there is just very little gate space in A. While I see a few round trips in CLT, it is not going to become a major station for WN at all.

There have been rumblings that B6 may move over to A concourse with US continuously building up CLT International ops. (D6 is a FIS gate that US could really use). They (B6) would Essentially be taking over the gate that FL uses for an overnight aircraft only. If this were to happen, WN/FL would be limited to their current one gate. FL YOY has reduced CLT ops' Including cutting ATL, BWI, MCO, and MDW flights. While WN may use start MDW service, it would likely come at the expense of ATL service getting axed. (Really with one gate, WN wouldn't be able to have more than 9 flights)


User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4537 posts, RR: 18
Reply 10, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 13125 times:

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Indianapolis: Adding FL's 20 or so trips a day to the current WN schedule presents no problem.

I do not agree with your assessment of IND. LGA is gone or being dropped shortly. BWI has been axed as well. What does that leave FL?

(as of May 2nd)
3x MKE
3x ATL
4x MCO
2x TPA
3x RSW
1x FLL
1x SRQ
1x LAS (Very Seasonal)

So that is at most 17 daily and I believe FLL and SRQ may be seasonal. LAS is very seasonal. It runs for a very short time. You may be looking at no more than 15 daily flights on a full year schedule. When the two companies merge you will likely see the end of the 3x to MKE since that is all RJ service. That brings daily service down 3 flights. You may see 1x drop to MCO and TPA. I don't think WN keeps 6 daily to MCO and 3 daily to TPA. That very seasonal LAS flight is probably gone too. RSW? Hard to tell. It is possible WN keeps it at 3x daily. FLL and SRQ? I wouldn't count on those being around. But lets assume WN keeps them and they are yearly flights. If these changes happen as I have describe, which I expect they will, then those (at max) 17 daily year round flights will be chopped down to maybe 12. You could see it much lower.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlinetxagkuwait From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1803 posts, RR: 43
Reply 11, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 12939 times:

Excellent responses. You've caused me to consider some things I neglected earlier.

I also left off Wichita and White Plains.

Congratulations, ICT. You get what you have desired forever. Southwest. In Wichita.

You keep the 3 trips to ATL. Or at least two of them. Probably all three.

You become a stop ATL-ICT-DEN. That gives ICT a nice western gateway. It is one of those things that just makes sense.

You get a couple of DAL-ICT-MDW thrown in for good measure.

Use it or lose it.

I also think WN keeps HPN. Right now it gets 5 flights daily - 2xATL, 2xPBI, and 1xMCO.

WN is not as afraid of DL and B6. I would suggest they beef up the FL service, add perhaps 2x to BWI and 2x to MDW.

All my comments (esp my original thoughts) are conjecture at best but I tried to consider the "markets between communities of interest" concept as well as "$300 avg fare for a 250 mile flight will kill short haul demand" and the DOT O&D data from Q2 2010.

With the possible exception of the single flight or less per day stations, I think WN will try to make things work at many of the stations. This is not a replay of AA/Reno Air where AA bought them and immediately dismantled everything about them. WN is buying FL to make money.

ATL brings a lot to the table. So do the Caribbean/International routes. Yet those stations alone have not kept FL profitable.

As far as the commuter carrier partner - hasta la vista, baby. WN will do it themselves with 717s or 737-500s. If things are priced right, small markets can become bigger markets. PHL-PVD and PHL-MHT used to be less than 100 psgrs per day back when USAir had an average fare of $300 each way. Nowadays, the average fare is around $125 (which is perfectly reasonable for a flightof 250-300 miles) and there are 800 to 900 psgrs per day in those markets.

The demand for air travel is very elastic. WN has a pricing model which has worked well in good times and not so good times.


User currently offlinebpat777 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 412 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 12917 times:

I'm curious to see if the merged airline will continue to fly to RIC, PHF and ORF. I'm thinking that ORF would be the first to go if they had to make a choice. They could possibly lock down PHF especially since the airport recently opened a new concourse last year.

User currently offlinebrooklynchris13 From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 48 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 12818 times:

I almost feel guilty pointing out another market that got left out of the comparison given the amazing work and analysis, but.. there is also my hometown of CMH- which is already quite a battleground for DL and WN and will likely only become more so given that WN will be the only signifcant LCC carrier in the market, and that DL has been expanding service and first class seats in the market.

In many ways, CMH may serve as a good indicator of how these airlines will compete going forward and which strategy will ultimately be successful-- or if both will fight to draw.

FL's CMH service is very seasonal and different in each of the three posted on their site, but generally...

ATL- 2x daily
FLL- 1 (less than daily)
MCO- 1 or 2 daily
RSW- 1 or 2 daily

WN:
BNA- 2x daily
BWI- 4+ Daily
DEN- 1X daily
LAS- 2x daily
MCO- 3x daily (extra flight on certain Saturdays- Seasonal
TPA- 3x daily (extra flight on certain Saturdays- Seasonal)

Combined: 20 flights per day
Total passengers in 2010 between both airlines: 2,108,193 (flycolumbus.com)

For comparison, DL: (many changes on or about 3/1)

ATL- Approx 9xdaily
BOS- 1x daily (x6)
CUN- 1X weekly
DCA- 2x daily
DET- 6x daily
JFK- 1x daily
LAX- 3x weekly
LGA- 4x daily
MEM- 1x daily
MSP- 4x daily
RDU- 2x daily (approximately 32 flights a day)

[Edited 2011-02-08 00:59:53]
Total Passengers in 2010: 1,430, 551 (flycolumbus.com)

Edited: to add passenger totals from Port Columbus


[Edited 2011-02-08 01:34:26]


be the change you want to see in the world (mg)
User currently offlinestlgph From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 9303 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 12637 times:

On AirTran, Bloomington is getting service to Ft Myers 4 days a week this spring. Unless Southwest changes their tune about less than daily frequencies, I see either Bloomington going 4 daily into Atlanta, and frequencies to Chicago Midway, or being eliminated altogether. Southwest has a following in Central Illinois...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Des Moines go away. Nor Moline.

White Plains I see them keeping it just because of the fight for air carriers to get in there, and it gives them a niche to the upper NYC suburban market. However, their expansion is limited because of the seat restrictions into White Plains.

I suspect if the Caribbean cities stay, you'll see frequencies from Baltimore and Orlando.



Eternal darkness we all should dread. It's hard to party when you're dead.
User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1900 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 12615 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 5):
Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):

Dayton: 8 trips a day already. 3 each to ATL and BWI, 1 each to TPA and MCO. This station looks like it was designed by WN for WN. The only thing missing right now is service to MDW/. Only 55 O&D psgrs per day between Chicago and Dayton. It is 240 miles and the average fare is $315, which might have done quite a bit towards stifling demand. I would suggest that WN will try a couple of daily round trips between Dayton & Midway.

Agreed, and DAY coming online greatly reduces the chances of WN coming to CVG anytime soon.

I don't buy this argument for one second and never have. The idea that WN is just going to ignore a 2.1+ million metro population to 'sustain' IND, CMH, and DAY is laughable. The gradual opening up of CVG from the defacto lock-down it has been under for the last 15 years will definitely have an impact on the travel dynamics of the tri-state. Adjustments will probably need to be made in the surrounding stations as Cincinnati residents continue to further gravitate away from using IND, CMH, and DAY, but the thought that WN is going to leave such a large, high-yielding LCC-starved population unserved in the long-term is ridiculous.


User currently offlinejoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 933 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 12479 times:

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 7):
Des Moinesians have been frothing at the mouth for Southwest service for years. Unfortunately, as much as I would LOVE to see WN stay the course in my hometown, I'm not very optimistic. It seems too easy for them to drop the existing Airtran service and leave DSM in the dust. First of all..Airtran has only been serving DSM for just over 2 years. I think we all agree the Skywest flying out of MKE will disappear almost instantly once the merger(buyout) is finalized. Which leaves the weekend only service to MCO..not much to cling to here.

I completely agree. I live in West Des Moines and it's only 1 hr 40 minutes to OMA where WN currently serves. Moline is also pretty close to Chicago. What would make sense to me is to drop both Moline and Des Moines and add CID. Geography wise, it's much more centrally located between currently WN stations of MSP, MCI, OMA, STL and MDW then Moline or DSM are. I really think DSM is just too close to OMA (very similar situation to COS and DEN) just too close together and drive is too easy.

CID would be a nice alternative to OMA for DSM travelers as it's only 110 miles from the east side of Des Moines.

We'll have to wait and see though.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22727 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 12414 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 5):
These are both college towns, and have bigger population bases than you think. DL fills mainline planes to ATL from TYS, plus if you look at other carriers maps, LEX sees a significant share of pax. TYS I think stays. Although SDF is not a long drive from LEX, I think WN can make LEX work too.

If WN thinks GSP can work, I see no reason TYS can't with the same service pattern (perhaps minus BNA but plus ATL).

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 9):
There have been rumblings that B6 may move over to A concourse with US continuously building up CLT International ops. (D6 is a FIS gate that US could really use). They (B6) would Essentially be taking over the gate that FL uses for an overnight aircraft only. If this were to happen, WN/FL would be limited to their current one gate.

There are rumors, but then again, if they can get EN off of D4 (which, IIRC, can take anything up to a 320), then B6 can just slide down. There's something to be said for having ticket counter, bagroom, and bag claim down in the less congested end of the terminal; although DH used A7 back when they existed, that was one of the nicer things about flying them.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently onlinediverdave From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 320 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 12333 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 5):
With all the NASA ties here, HOU is almost a given as well. Also, HSV commands some of the highest fares in the country (I think they were number 1 in average fare), not something WN will walk away from.

Great thread, BTW. Thank you OP for starting it!

Yes, we did take CVG's crown of highest fares in the country, at least for a while.

Initially, AirTran was running poor loads (40s and 50s). I took the airport's December stats http://www.hsvairport.org/rc/documents/AirStat10_013.pdf and that roughs out to 66% loads at 3 flights per day. AirTran had been running some dirt cheap fares to Orlando and Baltimore, so that may be a factor as well.

Our top O&D markets are listed here: http://www.hsvairport.org/rc/stats_hia.html Houston is our 6th market, with 27,312 passengers in 3rd quarter 2010. Apparently our CO service to IAH is down to 2x ERJ145s, so perhaps that market is ripe to be picked. But CO/UA might defend the route, as their combined operation here has become rather sizeable (IAH, DEN, ORD, and IAD).

With HSV located smack dab (as we say) between BNA and BHM I never expected to see the orange belly birds flying in here. But you never know!

David


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7038 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 12218 times:

First I will provide the likelihood of survival and then why.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Akron

50%; I think when UA closes the CLE hub CAK flights go to CLE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
ABE

0%; too small a station

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Aruba

10%; too far away, too thin, too few opportunities to expand

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Asheville

0%; see ABE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Atlantic City

20%; PHL sucks for WN and being here will hurt it more; would only stay to hurt NK.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Bloomington

10%; see ABE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Branson

10%; gone unless Branson shuts BranAirExp and given WN subsidy for 6-7 RTs

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Cancun

100%; high volume int'l station potentially with 20 RTs over time

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Charleston WV

10%; see ABE, unless politics become an issue

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Charlotte

100%; the only question is how big

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Dallas-Fort Worth

0%; gone sadly, we all know why

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Dayton

25%; If WN is thinking about CVG post-DL hub it would be dumb to do DAY

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Des Moines

30%; existing routes won't be kept, but works for MDW/DEN
Flint (you left it out?): 10%; duplicate to DTW; WN went from 2 airports to 1 in Detroit already

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Grand Rapids

15%; possible, but unlikely as they won't fly the short flight to MDW

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Harrisburg

10%; see ABE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Huntsville

20%; BWI is potentially a strong market, but I think it's too close to other WN stations.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Key West

20%; WN does not like complicated stations and EYW is very complicated due to runway length

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Knoxville

10%; see ABE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Lexington

10%; see ABE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Memphis

100%; see CLT

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Miami

0%; g-gone. FL barely flies there, might be gone on Day 1.

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Moline

10%; see ABE

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Montego Bay

70%; Not the same potential size as CUN, but probably a keeper

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Nassau

70%; WN could return former glory and its close to the USA, but not guaranteed

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Newport News

25%; either PHF or RIC will go, PHF is more likely to die

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Pensacola

50%; either ECP or PNS will go, ECP should go, but WN defends their own decisions

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Portland Maine

30%; geographically unique, but it's gonna be a small station and that's a problem for WN

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Punta Cana

40%; I don't think it's mass-market enough for them

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Richmond

75%; see PHF

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Rochester:

20%; proximity to BUF

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
San Juan

100%; exactly the kind of "int'l" market WN wants, i.e. not very int'l

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Sarasota

10%; RSW has sucked for WN, they won't add another nearby airport

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Tunica

5%; unless they write a big check ala ECP it's gone

White Plains 50%; In normal circumstances I'd think it was definitely gone as a small station with limited growth potential, BUT those slots will go to B6 if they don't sit on them and they probably don't want that. They may move the service to MDW x2 and BWI x3.

Wichita 80%; I think it stays with DEN and maybe DAL service.

I think that AirTran is WN's entry into int'l, but only very high volume markets and largely markets that FL doesn't even serve. These are the int'l markets that I expect to see WN/FL be in:
Winners:
SJU - Not technically int'l, but requires overwater A/C which is the same issue for WN, year-round
CUN - There are probably 20 markets WN could fly, year-round
Canada - YUL/YVR/YYC are all going to happen. I'm not sure what they do with Pearson's high costs, they might do an alternate there. Not sure where. year-round, of course.
PVR - I think this market has a lot of growth potential and affinity to a lot of their network, year-round

Losers:
SJD - I'm not sure they will go in unless they can pry loose some California authorities which are mostly blocked now.
PUJ/AUA/SXM/GCM - I don't feel like these can have more than 1 to 3 flights and I'm not sure that fits the WN model

Maybe:
BDA - WN has never done seasonal stations
SDQ - Meets volume requirements, but requires ethnic traffic skills that WN (and FL) don't have
CZM - Hard to make it a year-round station
MEX - See SDQ
GDL - See SDQ
MTY - See SDQ

[Edited 2011-02-08 06:35:39]

User currently online727LOVER From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 6413 posts, RR: 17
Reply 20, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 12175 times:

Quoting txagkuwait (Thread starter):
Chicago: 7 a day to Atlanta may not be enough but it'll do for starters. 3 to RSW and 4 to MCO can be balanced with what WN already has.

Were you aware FL has 2X daily to SRQ?



Listen Betty, don't start up with your 'White Zone' s*** again.
User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 12104 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Meets volume requirements, but requires ethnic traffic skills that WN (and FL) don't have

Actually they do have those skills. SJU has some of the same dynamics of any of those markets you have. The people packing those planes are those visiting relatives and going home. Yes there are plenty tourists.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
CZM - Hard to make it a year-round station
CZM would be a good addition.

I think you all are missing something very very key in all of this. 1. The point of this merger is for expansion to new markets which FL provides 30 plus that WN doest fly to. 2. For the expertise and knowledge and route authorities for international, not least of the planes equipped for the task. 3.I understand they have a model that i has worked, but the key word is has, how much longer will it work.

If WN cannot adapt to a hybrid of its model or accept that you dont have to necessarily have 10 flights a day to be successful and to make a profit, then they will be outclassed, out schooled, and outbid. They are aware of that and this deal seeks to help them with that. Very very very good analysis from all of you guys And yes will something be cut? Sure will cities be retooled? Sure but will the FL network be gutted just to keep maybe 10 cites extremely doubtful.

[Edited 2011-02-08 07:05:04]


ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5008 posts, RR: 21
Reply 22, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 12098 times:

Quoting stlgph (Reply 14):


White Plains I see them keeping it just because of the fight for air carriers to get in there, and it gives them a niche to the upper NYC suburban market. However, their expansion is limited because of the seat restrictions into White Plains.

WN could shift the 6 daily FL flights to 3xATL and 3xMDW and just let it ride. When the "old" WN was doing the "major airport avoidence" thing (PVD/MHT is the prime example) I continually expected WN to start service to SWF as a NYC "bracket airport" in conjunction with ISP. Never happened for some reason, if any airline can make SWF work it's WN. I cant imagine WN hasn't looked at SWF a few times....but now with them in EWR and LGA I doubt we'll see it anytime soon.

Excellent analysis TxAg.



Next Up: STL-LGA-RIC-ATL-STL
User currently online727LOVER From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 6413 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 12066 times:

Quoting Atlwest1 (Reply 21):
Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 20):
CZM - Hard to make it a year-round station

]Watch who you are quoting please.

For years MOL had ATL flights. Would they stay if they still had them?



Listen Betty, don't start up with your 'White Zone' s*** again.
User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 12039 times:

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 23):
]Watch who you are quoting please.

Whooops hit the wrong button sorry no harm meant  



ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
25 wwtraveler99 : Not sure if you mean the FL flight or flight BWI-LAX? WN already has thier own non-stop that was retain for year round service. (it was supposed to b
26 AVLAirlineFreq : While it likely doesn't affect your analysis or the end result, FL also flies AVL-TPA seasonally (summer and fall). On a separate and unrelated note,
27 enilria : "Ethnic" sales primarily means the sale of non-business tickets to the residents of the destination. AirTran's own people will tell you that they don
28 rl757pvd : Again you lose all credibility with a statment like that. ROC is a 1-million plus independent market with little leakeage to BUF. FL already operated
29 Flytravel : I don't think ACY-DEN would be happening if WN kept ACY. The longest route out of ACY is ACY-FLL, so ACY-DEN might be viewed as long and thin, could
30 Atlwest1 : Yes those are some of the main reasons, but if thats all it is then they could have done that for the most part on there own. The merger has far more
31 apodino : That may be true, but you forget about other stations that WN serves that are complicated operationally. Stations like RNO, SNA, BUR, and even MDW to
32 enilria : With you I do, but I'm extremely consistent. I think they will close DAY/PHF/ROC/FNT/and probably CAK. I don't see WN "entering" alternate airports a
33 rl757pvd : ROC is not a FNT PHF or CAK, DAY is the only remotely close comparison and ROC is about double the size RIC/ORF is not much different than BUF/ROC Ea
34 rampart : In the manor that WN (and FL) have kept multiple cities operating within a large metro area or conurbations (see Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco,
35 apodino : EYW is not as big a training deal as you might think. I work for a carrier that has flown into EYW in the past, and the only training was in a home s
36 KarlB737 : I'm thinking of all the smaller regional stations like FNT for example, and many in Illinois that when they got wind of Southwest acquiring AirTran f
37 Atlwest1 : Well sometimes pride can be ones undoing. Yes they have great leg pitch but they would do well to glean somethings from the airtran product. Sorry yo
38 EMB170 : Regarding BHM, IIRC DL used to be 757 on this route approx 6-8 times/day, and this was due to a fat BellSouth contract that required employees to be a
39 Post contains images PHLBOS : I think one needs to look a little closer at those multiple-city airports scenarios by which CARRIER is doing the serving. Since WN typically, starts
40 Post contains links point2point : On a bit of a parallel note, WN just announced that they will introduce nonstop service DEN-BUR. http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_17329165 Se
41 txagkuwait : [quote]Well sometimes pride can be ones undoing. Yes they have great leg pitch but they would do well to glean somethings from the airtran product. So
42 phllax : Try telling that to the folks in BUR who have trouble getting a half full flight up to the Bay Area in the dead of summer when the temps are 90+.
43 ckfred : Here's a thought: Midway-Key West. I'm sure that a lot of people in the Midwest fly AA to MIA via ORD or DFW, then either connect for Key West or rent
44 rl757pvd : They can offer MDW-EYW but theres no way they can do EYW-MDW, unless it was just the pilots and no f/a's
45 Atlwest1 : The issue with the 717 is it does not have the necessary braking capabilities to stop on the runway. The 737-700s that FL has can. In general FL has
46 luv2fly : GRR will be gone from the route map first of all. FNT might last though still not sure if it survives.
47 rampart : DET, as you may know, had the original WN service to Detroit. It also had a shortlived airline hubbed there. I don't know Detroit's current stance on
48 Atlwest1 : Are you sure about? Grr route recieves heavy subsidies and was basically made at the request of a very powerful family which ties in to sponsorship d
49 luv2fly : No service started first at DTW and then was added DET, DET lasted just over 5 years until is was gone from the route map.
50 luv2fly : It might last until the money runs out though the market itself could easily go to FNT, DTW or MDW.
51 papatango : I think you have understated the Delta flights.
52 keagkid101 : MIA will definitely be closed, given WN's presence in FLL. If WN really wanted to keep MIA, I'd see them going 2x daily to BWI and perhaps 2x to ATL a
53 luv2fly : DTW started June 4th 1987 and DET started July 6th 1988 and ended 9-15 93
54 Flytravel : They compete on nonstops to MCO, but also 1 stop connection itineries to other cities in Florida, Texas, Ohio, some cities in the midwest: , MSP, and
55 MLI717fan : I wouldn't be surprised if MLI, DSM, BMI type stations stick around (probably seeing some considerable reworking, of course). In the wake of MLI losi
56 USAirALB : FL currently uses 2 gates at CLT, A6 and A8. Two gates can handle a lot of flights, if they schedule things right. The 738 will be perfect for WN at
57 keagkid101 : I hope you mean HOU!
58 IADLHR : MLI-BWI would be nice too. However, I am not planning on it.
59 keagkid101 : I wouldn't be suprised if WN abandoned IAD entirely in favor of DCA and BWI. WN has already cut down IAD, and FL only flies a handful of flights to AT
60 FlyPNS1 : I think many on this board will be very surprised by how many of the smaller stations survive. Right now, too many people are applying WN's business m
61 Buddys747 : That would be WN's loss as well as central PA's. MDT and ABE have the population base. Not everyone drives to PHL and BWI, traffic has increased at t
62 Cubsrule : How is GRR-MDW different from a route like BWI-ORF, which is a similar distance as the crow flies but also too difficult to drive due to water in bet
63 SyrAlex : Us here in SYR really hope this happens
64 Post contains images CIDFlyer : Oh how I would love this!! Works in theory if SWA doesnt want to saturate service by having multple nearby airports. That may work in heavily populat
65 Post contains images Kcrwflyer : Yikes.. first gone!? C'mon at least second. Let's just say they'll do cut's alphabetically one afternoon... AVL goes first All of the smaller cities
66 slcdeltarumd11 : Good discussion. Thanks for posting I guess your answer has to be what direction you think WN is heading. The answer to that can vary alot I think the
67 milesrich : For over ten years, FL operated three flights daily ATL-MLI, and then dropped the service last November. But WN has a way of making service to medium
68 rampart : I stand corrected, thanks. Was DTW service added around the same time as the original DEN service? -Rampart
69 JaxMan19 : You forgot about JAX? Its still a FL station with 7 or 8 flights...Whats gonna happen in JAX?
70 Flytravel : There are some wealthy communities within 25 miles of IAD, where BWI is too far. By being in DCA and IAD, WN can attract that area better than just b
71 Cubsrule : Status quo - what's the gate situation on the WN side? I thought that side was pretty tight, but last time I was there CO and UA were not merged eith
72 luv2fly : May 26th, 1983 Southwest inaugurates service from Denver (DEN) with six roundtrips per day. DEN closes on Sept. 30, 1986 and reopens in 2006
73 luv2fly : DEN was gone before DTW was even added
74 CIDFlyer : very true, i dont think people in MLI would drive to CID to fly to Chicago, but they probably would drive to make connecting flights at a cheaper rat
75 Post contains images KingFriday013 : If they cut out ROC, I can see B6 picking up the slack. Lots of the travelers here (especially during holiday periods) are students who have to take t
76 apodino : You can add HOU, and after wright goes away, DAL to that list as well. Just a thought here, FL just moved out of Airside 2 in MCO to Airside 4. I sti
77 Post contains images AVLAirlineFreq : I heard they were starting in reverse alphabetical order using the name of the airport as their basis.
78 Post contains images wnflyguy : Here are the FL cities I see being cut once the WN takeover begins: Tunica, Gulfport/Biloxi, DFW,MOLINE/QUAD CITIES, Huntsville, Asheville, Lexington,
79 keagkid101 : LGA: Will probably never go above 4x...no need for 117, 122, or 137 seat aircraft flying 7 times a day between these cities. Remember, US Airways fli
80 USAirALB : Doubt it. For both MHT and BUF. Will probably be 2 daily.. Good except, but probably 3x MDW, 1X DEN, and a couple of flights to IAH and PHX.
81 keagkid101 : You have some inconsistencies in your post. You have 7x BWI-LGA but 6x LGA-BWI and 3x HPN-BWI but 2x BWI-HPN.
82 BDABOY : I would argue that WN has a great chance to become part of the substantial non-seaonal market out of Bermuda, especially if they can offer lower cost
83 wnflyguy : You have some inconsistencies in your post. You have 7x BWI-LGA but 6x LGA-BWI and 3x HPN-BWI but 2x BWI-HPN. It should be 6 BWI-LGA and 6 LGA-BWI and
84 AVLAirlineFreq : I don't see TYS (Knoxville) on this list....[Edited 2011-02-12 04:41:26]
85 keagkid101 : Lol you copied and pasted from my post?
86 Flytravel : For central PA, I'd think WN could choose one (ABE or MDT) and build it up with flights, but my thinking is ABE as it might capture better than MDT, a
87 wnflyguy : It should be 6 BWI-LGA and 6 LGA-BWI and 3 HPN-BWI and 3 BWI-HPN. this work better for ya.
88 wnflyguy : I see TYS being cut also.
89 Post contains images nkops : If we aren't cut ( ) I see 2x ATL, 2x MDW and maybe BOS... I don't see MHT adn BUF in the mix. BWI I believe is too short a hop for here.
90 wnflyguy : If ACY stay's it will be a 717 only city and talk around WN is the new Small 717 only cities will have a min of 5 to 6 flights a day. I think you wil
91 LoneStarMike : Since Branson is a private airport (not built with any federal funds) they can do things differently there. One thing they offer to the airlines is e
92 upsmd11 : Though I will never fly this route it will be nice to force DL to lower their rates on SDF-ATL as they have had a monopoly on this route since EA wen
93 rangercarp : I think you are a bit too optimistic. I think ATL stays at twice per day with a DAL-ICT-MDW or two thrown in. I think 80% is about right for ICT's od
94 Post contains images flyguy89 : I know right! SDF has much potential in the new, consolidated WN/FL network. I know they'd love to get a flight out to LAX
95 Post contains images SurfandSnow : Not going anywhere. FL made the airport into what it is today, and is about as synonymous with the facility as B6 is to LGB. BOS, LGA, and MKE will p
96 Post contains links LoneStarMike : They (AirTran) are pulling out again on March 6. AirTran says it plans March end to its Gulfport service LoneStarMike
97 SurfandSnow : So, just to recap what I think will happen to the FL-only stations once it's all said and done... 100% chance of survival (basically, the reasons why
98 BMI727 : I'd guess eliminated altogether. The yields to ATL can't be that good considering how much capacity is in the market and whatever following they have
99 Buddys747 : I think they could both stay, but if they had to choose, I would think MDT would be the better choice. MDT has more passengers yearly and also has mo
100 Cubsrule : What is different about GSP and TYS? I've asked this question several times, and no one has provided a good answer. Both have pretty solid fundamenta
101 AVLAirlineFreq : Agreed. I don't think there's much difference. I think the mistake some posters make is that they look at TYS and see FL flying less than daily to MC
102 diverdave : I grew up in the TRI area. Folks drive all the time to BNA for the right fare. I drove to TYS myself several times. David
103 keagkid101 : If you didn't copy and paste, then wow....we think alike!
104 ERJ170 : Oh.. I would love to see SJU service.. as well as Saturday NAS service.. the only other viable option I see is New Orleans service.. Otherwise, good
105 Cubsrule : Umm - what do you know that we don't? FL uses two.
106 kcrwflyer : It's always interesting to see the amount of people that look at an airport and say " this is all you have so this is what you should have". When you
107 EMB170 : BMI has been an FL station since at least 2000-2001 (if not longer), and got a great deal of corporate traffic from State Farm Insurance Corporation
108 PI767 : In my opinion, I hate to say it, but I think post-merger, one of the WN cities that may be a goner is CLE. Some people have questioned Akron's surviva
109 airguardtn : TYS can fill 8 or 10 B-117's per day. It is my home airport and we experience a lot of bleed to BNA and ATL. Fares here are some of the hightest in th
110 izbtmnhd : Surprised it took 108 replies to get to this. How can you consolidate and expand CAK when there is no space to? With a possibility of UA leaving CLE,
111 Post contains images flyguy89 : ...and yet you fail to mention the big CO/UA elephant in the room that already flies multiple daily non-stops from CLE to MCO, TPA, FLL, LAS, and PHX
112 casinterest : I disagree on this one. ECP is not a proximity issue for PNS. The real threat in both of these stations is to Delta. Delta Flies to Atlanta and Memph
113 Flytravel : I was rethinking it, and think WN could make MDT, ABE, along with ACY, and for CLE region, even CAK along with CLE work. It makes sense to keep most o
114 SurfandSnow : You have covered the benefits - have you considered the costs? That 10 flight operation out of the second airport means hiring a station manager, gat
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