United Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9036 posts, RR: 16 Posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 2918 times:
Recently, there are reports, as well as rumours saying that the Proposed UA-US merger will never occur, regardless of how confident James Goodwin is.
I have had a few words with a few analysts, as well as the Managing Director Mr Tony Liu of Morgan Stanley. I have also attended one of their board meetings (I have proves!) They all believe that the proposed merger will go through.
First of all, Wolfy is a smart guy and he is fully aware that under Bush's administration, the merger will benefit he himself, as well as US Airways in terms of the whole company. Republicans are KNOWN to support huge firms.
By merging two airlines, UAL will dominate both West Coast as well as East Coast and that will be a monopoly. Nevertheless, let's look at Microsoft. Under Clinton's Administration, the Court has ruled that Microsoft as a monopoly. Anything happened to Microsoft? NO! Microsoft is not recieving any kind of penalties. The anti-trust thing is simply GONE.
There are all different kinds of monopolies in the US, as well as all over the World. It is hard to stop them.
Although it seems that the Justices do not favour the merger, the Managing Director, as well as the analysts here at M.S strongly believe that by selling D.C. Air to AA, the merger will probably go through. Actually, J Goodwin is likely to come up with something new in the coming months to have the merger going through.
The merged airline will create a fierce competition between airlines like American, Delta, Continental etc.
D L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 10794 posts, RR: 52 Reply 4, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2721 times:
United Airline, where is your source of information?
I find it a little hard to swallow that Morgan Stanley thinks this merger is going to go through, despite your 'proove.'
There's a huge problem with just selling off DC Air to American. You know how they just bought TWA? Guess what airline owns a very significant number of gates at National? Uh huh. TWA. Now, AA does. TWA currently leases out all this gate space to other airlines. (I believe they own the whole Banjo and a couple more.) With AA at the helm, you will see those gates being revoked, and AA flights moving in. Now, this is all before AA gets DC Air. The combo of the DC Air operation and AA's now current operation will be quite a bit ahead of the next largest airline at DCA - Delta.
And about Microsoft, don't go thinking it's over just yet. The case hasn't disappeared. It's in appeals right now. These cases take a LONG time. Especially when MS lawyers' sole purpose is to stall the case.
United Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9036 posts, RR: 16 Reply 5, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2706 times:
D L X:
I am now working as an Investment Trainee at Morgan Stanley for my summer Intern. And I had the chance to speak with a few analysts, Brokers as well as the Managing Director of Morgan Stanley (Hong Kong). More than 90% of them believe that the merger will go through. And of course, some of them believe that it will not due to the reasons we have discussed before.
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16555 posts, RR: 52 Reply 6, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2697 times:
UAL will not be allowed to aquire all of U, most likely scenario is that UAL picks up Charlotte and another piece while Philly,Pitt and everything else is sold off.
I definetly don't see UAL picking up all of U's LGA slots, the Port Authority and the FAA are pushing for parity at LGA. Most likely scenario at LGA each slot is auctioned off to the highest bidder and smaller carriers are given preference.
U is worth more piece by piece than it's whole, and that DC Air thing isn't going to fly either especially with AA involved. Again it's worth more to sell it off to the highest bidder.
D L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 10794 posts, RR: 52 Reply 7, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2693 times:
I strongly disagree with the idea that US is worth more piece by piece. That's (imo) an argument used by the people who are trying to get it sold piece by piece because no one is going to be able to swallow the whole thing.
US is so incredibly valuable because of its incredible market presence on the east coast. That wouldn't be the case if it was just an airline of DCA, or LGA, or BOS, etc. Fact is, from all big cities on the east coast, there are flights to most of the other big cities on the east coast non-stop. CO doesn't have that, DL doesn't have that, and none of the other airlines come that close even. Breaking US into pieces makes it just another airline.
As for Morgan Stanley's view, why hasn't Morgan bought the stock then? If the merger is so definite, there's a lot of money to be made. Wall street just doesn't seem to think that the merger will happen as evidenced by the stock price.
BHopsde From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 8, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2691 times:
There should be just one U.S. airline, they all pat eachother on the back anyhow, plus, there is no 'true' competition. Everyone, including analysts, just guess based on [historical] data. No one knows exactly what will happen. Business as usual, one could say!
B747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 11, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2683 times:
United Airline - interesting thread for a change. I'm impressed!
However, I must respectfully disagree with Tony Liu and his army of analysts. The UA-US deal is completely dead in the water in my opinion and here are the reasons why :
a) Justice Department.
I worked with DOJ's antitrust division on the TWA-AA deal and their views on UA-US were pretty clear. They will oppose it. That doesn't stop the deal from happening, but it will definitely put a huge obstacle in their path.
Lets not even go any further than the AFA. They are suffering from ALPA-envy and will go to any length to derail the merger, if only to just flex their muscle. The other unions aren't gonna welcome it with open arms either.
UA doesn't have the money to buy US. Simple as that. They don't have the leverage in the financial markets to raise that kind of capital either, unless they are willing to assume HUGE amounts of longterm debt at unfavorable rates. That will put them up shit creek with longterm debt up the wazoo. Not the best thing to do when you are bleeding more red than a Chinese flag in the washing machine.
d) DC Air
If you watched the Senate hearings on DCAir, you will have seen John McCain and Byron Dorgan stifling their laughter as Robert Johnson tried to justify the need for DC Air. Especially if AA gets the equity stake they are angling for, expect the Senate Transportation committee to crack down bigtime on this farce.
United Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9036 posts, RR: 16 Reply 14, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2614 times:
United said seeking to alter US Airways merger deal
Saturday June 30, 1:06 AM EDT
WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - With a key deadline fast approaching, United Airlines is seeking to discard its current $12.3 billion deal to acquire US Airways and devise a new plan, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.
Citing sources, the newspaper said United, the world's largest airline and a unit of UAL Corp (UAL), was seeking changes in the acquisition proposals in an effort to get a lower price and to address regulatory concerns that the deal could stifle competition.
Sources told the Post United is considering several changes, including buying only parts of US Airways instead of the whole airline. United was also considering selling some routes to low-fare carriers to generate competition, the sources said.
The Post said all three airlines declined comment.
United announced in May 2000 plans to acquire Arlington, Virginia-based US Airways Group Inc (U), the sixth-largest U.S. airline, in one of the biggest ever domestic aviation merger proposals.
In a move to satisfy Justice Department concerns about competition, United agreed to sell some US Airways assets to American Airlines as part of the complex merger deal. If completed, the merger would make United Airlines by far the largest provider of domestic air travel in the United States.
Since the deal was announced, antitrust concerns and a weakened economy have dramatically changed the prospects for United's acquisition of US Airways, the Post said.
United shares have fallen 41 percent, from $60.38 the day before the accord was announced to close at $35.15 on Friday while US Airways shares have fallen slightly over the same period, from $26.31 to $24.30, the Post said.
United has until July 11 to decide whether to notify the Justice Department that it intends to go ahead with the acquisition, the Post said. Failure to do so will automatically doom the current agreement, because the airlines promised antitrust regulators that they would provide 21-day notice before closing the acquisition, according to the newspaper.
The Post said under the terms of the deal, neither side can alter the proposed merger agreement until August 1. After that date, the paper said either party would be free to walk away or restructure the deal.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4419 posts, RR: 35 Reply 15, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2598 times:
It still seems to me that US's Board is intent on selling the airline, in whatever fashion they can do it for the best return for shareholders. This means that they'll stick with Wolf and Gangwal, and try to sell the airline even if they aren't going to get the $60 stock price for the whole that they agreed upon last year. If I read Petzinger's portrayal of Wolf in Hard Landing correctly, Wolf will do whatever it takes to accomplish the purpose of sale. He's batted .1000 so far.
This history and the continuing commitment of the board suggest to me that US will not enter Star and try to make it on their own. It's an intriguing possiblity Aaron, but would Star feed come at a high enough yield to feed US's voracious "Mr. Creosote" cost structure? High enough to satisfy the board and Wolf? Star membership would be great for existing US FF pax (like me) but it's unlikely to produce satisfactory returns.
If US and UA fail to propose a plan by July 11, they may be forced into a Star arrangement for awhile, but it seems to me that the board will keep trying to sell. Probably by putting the airline up to bid, so to avoid a collusionary situation. UA has made pretty clear with the original $60/ share offer, that they'll bid whatever it takes to get what they want--probably, IMO, CLT and PIT and BOS. LGA is possible but as someone else suggested, DOJ and FAA may try to break up US's huge share there.
So far I haven't seen anything to contradict the bidding/ breakup scenario I've discussed before; AA would probably also bid whatever it took to get what it wanted, IMO PHL including its int'l routes. NW would bid for the Shuttle, and CO and DL would slug it out for DC Air. (the 49 percent that Johnson would sell out in three years as he's suggested).
Cch362 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 147 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2572 times:
If US Airways were to be carved up piece by piece, I think PHL and its international routes would be rendered worthless. This is especially the case to AA because of incompatible aircraft in AA's Boeing fleet (plus a handful of A300s) and AA's intl network already established at JFK.
Mr. Wolf was brought to US specifically for making it a target for takeover. He painted the aircraft nicely, added international service and polished the airline's outward image. People's perception of US becomes highly inflated and they are deluded to think that it has great investment value regardless of signs of profitability. The fact remains that US has a high cost structure that makes it uncompetitive against other airlines. Some pieces like BOS, LGA, DCA, Shuttle and PIT may be great assets. Others like PHL, BWI, CLT, Florida and Europe are less attractive. In the long run, an acquisition of any part of US may generate more passengers, but its profitability is doubtful.
This is turning out like the story of Pan American repeating itself, the domestic version of an aviation dinosaur on its final approach. Who knows whether US will have a crash landing, an aborted landing, or somehow just disappear from the radar screen?
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2891 posts, RR: 7 Reply 17, posted (12 years 5 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2563 times:
You're probably right, Jim, that the board will continue to favor a sale, but I can't say that I blame them. The Star arrangement won't stop the blood forever but it would buy time until they can figure out their next moves...
I would expect UA to grab BOS and CLT, but I'd also expect them to go after PHL rather than PIT. Granted PIT is a much better facility, but PHL is a better market, especially if UA won't get the benefit of having _all_ of US' existing Northeast network and has to grow on its own.
Hypermike From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1001 posts, RR: 5 Reply 19, posted (12 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2532 times:
DCA-ROCguy, NO NO NO NO NO. The US Airways board doesn't want to sell the airline. It's Mr. Wolf (without the 'e') that wants to sell the airline.
Everyone seems to think that US Airways is a failing airline. Would you all please start listening to someone other than Mr. Wolf about US Airways' financial position! Do you realize just how easy it is for a corporation to declare a loss while its really making money hand over fist? Look at the balance sheet, will you! US Airways is PAYING CASH for most of their new fleet. Rather than finance them over the long-term, they're paying for them up-front and depriciating them at an accellerated rate.
Granted, not hedging fuel costs is just downright dumb.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4419 posts, RR: 35 Reply 20, posted (12 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2528 times:
Hypermike, you'll need to show us a news report from anywhere that says that US Airways' board doesn't back Wolf and Gangwal completely. Everything I've seen indicates that the board backs them strongly. That's who hired them.
Yes, US Airways is not failing; I've been arguing for awhile that they can hold out 8-10 years if they want to. But 13 cents seat/mile is a far higher cost structure than any of the other Six Families, and almost double that of Southwest. US Airways *will* fail eventually unless they can get their costs down into at least the 8-9 cents/ seat mile range. Between their unions, their hodgepodge fleet, mostly short flights, and sell-minded Board, US Airways is very unlikely to be a long term survivor on its own.
But at least this merger has failed, thank God. The airline will probably be broken up within two years.
Philly phlyer From United States of America, joined May 1999, 317 posts, RR: 1 Reply 21, posted (12 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2522 times:
You're profile reports that you are a "business analyst specializing in the airline industry." That is frightening based on your comments above. You stated that "PHL and its international routes would be rendered worthless" and that "great assets" would include BOS and PIT while PHL and CLT would be "less attractive."
You need to do your homework. If you take the shuttle out of the picture, U's operation in BOS is not that large and has several strong competitors (no ability to dominate market). While PIT is a very attractive and efficient physical facility (one of the best in the country), it is not their most profitable hub. On the other hand, CLT and PHL (with the Shuttle and LGA) are the assets that are sought after.
CLT is the only real alternative to ATL in the Southeast and is in a rapidly growing region. Every major carrier in the US would love to have that operation. PHL has a very large population base in driving distance and, as such, has the highest O&D traffic in the U system. It also presents a real alternative to JFK and EWR for international connections. [U is not the only carrier that has been adding international seats in PHL.] I would agree that AA would have no interest with what they are doing in JFK, but UA and NW are different stories.
As to the future of U. I believe that Wolf has been setting this airline up for a sale since he walked in the door. This is his history with every airline. [As such, unless the board throws him out, I believe that is the future.]
The airline dominates the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic (even with Airtran, JetBlue and Southwest) if you check number of seats and flights offered. [Who else, for example, will fly you from Albany to Harrisburg, Syracuse to Norfolk, or Buffalo to Richmond?] U can be profitable, but Wolf wants to sell and get out. [A Wolf is always a Wolf.] It's a real irony that he must make the patient look sick to be able to make a case to sell it (as a whole, in pieces or, after frightening the employees, to them) It is one of the quirks of this industry. Normally, you want to turn profits on your financial statements (whether they are real or not). In this industry, you want to post losses (whether they are real or not) to push the sale past the regulators.
Jaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (12 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2511 times:
My barber's cousin's dogwalker who is related by adoption to Stephen Wolf's personal chef, who once slept with a First Boston M&A analyst also told me that they were 99% sure that this deal would go through.
Hypermike From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1001 posts, RR: 5 Reply 24, posted (12 years 5 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 2505 times:
For once, I'm caught with my pants down. I can't back up what I've said. It's based on a lot of rumor. But I have a pretty good sense of when a rumor is just a rumor and when there is some basis to the rumor.
Frankly, I strongly believe that the board is going to hang Wolf. They're going to need a fall guy.
25 DCA-ROCguy: Philly Phlyer's right about PHL--it's a strong major-city market that will host a major-carrier hub operation after all this is over, whoever that car
26 D L X: Holy Crap! Is that Hypermike?! Welcome back! As for the thesis of this thread, yup yup. I'm going to be doing the opposite of what Morgan Stanley says
27 RayChuang: I have this feeling that the majority of the US Airways' board of directors will force out Mr. Wolf and his allies in the now-failed merger proposal.
28 DCA-ROCguy: DLX, the UA board probably gambled on a buyout of US because they thought they could get away with it. The Reagan Justice Department waved the late 19
29 Hypermike: Yup, It's me. In the flesh. DLX, drop me a line, off-line. Let's be serious here. HP buying US facilities? Puh lease. My prediction is that US will br
30 DCA-ROCguy: America West a target for US Airways? Very unlikely, although a West Coast hub would be attractive for US. Southwest has established hub operations at
31 Hypermike: You're forgetting something about CSMs. They are always higher in the northeast. Landing slots are expensive and winter maintenance is hell. When SWA
32 Philly phlyer: DCA-ROC Guy: My understanding is that the new commuter runway was designed and started before the move from turboprops (DH-8s, etc) to regional jets.
33 DCA-ROCguy: "CSM's"--cents per seat mile. In other words, what I was talking about in my last post. US's CSM of 13 cents will *not* be brought down to a tenable 7
34 DCA-ROCguy: "I fly them more than anyone else"--in other words, I fly US more often than I fly any other airline. Just in case that wasn't clear. Jim
35 Hypermike: DCA-ROC, you make some good points. But the board will be out to do what is best for the shareholders in terms of value. Granted, selling the airline
36 D L X: But, with the return of Hypermike, the good points about CASM are back. A long time ago on this forum, I postulated how irrelevant comparing WN's CASM
37 DCA-ROCguy: DLX, you've made a lot of maningless distinctions that distort the picture regarding US Airways cost structure and survival options. Your yield-measu
38 Hypermike: Remember one thing, CSMs, RPMs, routes, hubs, and fleets don't pay the bills. PROFITS DO! US Airways should be profitable, but in the zest to look lik
39 DCA-ROCguy: Yes, profits pay the bills. But an airline becomes dependably profitable by *building a cost structure* that fare yields can dependably support. With
40 Nycank: Jaysit: *ROTFLOL* Hypermike: CASM and RPM are indicators that analysts use, to make sense of an airline. Profits can be elusive if cost structure is h
41 RayChuang: Let's face it folks. US will never have a decent US West Coast hub due to the very fact that once WN entered the California market WN zapped all the c
42 D L X: Nycank, the last thing you want to do to lower costs is drop long distance flights in favor of short ones. Jim, my argument is not meaningless. You si
43 DCA-ROCguy: MCI's future does not lie with an oligopoly-mafia carrier hub; the city's O&D base isn't big enough and it's not close enough to enough people. US Air
44 Hypermike: Let me jump to DLX's rescue again. You really can't compare CSMs from US and WN. They have completely different business models. 1) US Airways operate
45 WorldVoyager: United Airline - How did you receive your intern position? I've heard they are quite hard to get.
46 DCA-ROCguy: Mike: You really can't compare CSMs from US and WN. They have completely different business models. 1) US Airways operates the hub-and-spoke model whe
47 D L X: Jim, note my quote when I said: "Especially when, adjusted for flight volume, the two airlines probably have less than a 10% overlap (even assuming th
48 Hypermike: DLX, I heard you. WN can't be making that much on those routes. However, if they make just a little bit, and then they do it six times a day, they're
49 ILOVEA340: I personaly could not bare to see this go through. There would be 2 us airline monopolies UA having east and west while AA has the central regions...
50 D L X: "Whynot have just one Government run mega-airline" Sure! Let's call it AmeriFlot.
51 ILOVEA340: hell why not. Have a huge fleet of like 4000 aircraft and just fly every where. Then the FAA doesn't have to get pissed at people for going something
52 ILOVEA340: anyways back on topic... I really want to know where this is from... Can anyone tell me if this is credible...
53 DCA-ROCguy: Aviation Week's Aviation Daily reports today that US Airways has seen yields drop at most of its top 100 domestic markets over the past three years. A
54 Cch362: Wow! After a long weekend this topic really grew! I just want to respond to an earlier comment to my thinking that PHL and CLT are less attractive ass
55 United Airline: WorldVoyager: Yes it is indeed hard to get one. I was lucky maybe? Des
56 United Airline: 'I am lucky' I mean. Actually, how long will US survive?Another 5-10 years? Or about a year or two? Breaking up US and have it sold piece by piece is
57 United Airline: Actually, I have read an article on Asian Wall Street Journal, as well as spoken with a few Analysts at Standard and Poor (S&P). Some of them believe
58 Heavymetal: Sounds like MS's boys are still high on the smoke of the 90s, wishing for it will make it so. There's still lots of thirty something ex multimillionai
59 D L X: "Breaking up US and have it sold piece by piece is one of the options. " Well, according to a press release issued this evening, that is not an option
60 USAIRWAYS321: I fly Airbus A320 family for US. I could not stand to fly for UAL. If this goes through---I would pack my bags and fly for Air Canada. I swear!!!! Any
61 Hypermike: Ahem.... Those are 767-200s and not 767-300s. You have eleven of them. Seven are owned, four are leased. Not only has US paid cash for a bulk of their
62 USAIRWAYS321: I forgot-----Why did USAir not keep 1 if not both of PSA's California HUB's when they merged in the 80's? USAir kept Piedmont's HUB in CLT.... So many
63 Hypermike: USAir was in a serious cost-cutting mode. They felt that they were fighting a war on two fronts. They closed up shop in California and stayed focused
64 USAIRWAYS321: Sorry Hypermike---i know its 767-200, i just hit the wrong key and dindn't catch it. And if USAir was in cost-cutting mode, thenwhy the hell were they