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Media Report - Iran Accounts For 25% Of World Air Fatalities  
User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 5654 times:

I'm not sure if the article below is entirely accurate, but if it is, Iran accounts for 25.5% of global air crash fatalities, with 800 out of the 3400 people killed in air crashes over the past 7 years being Iranian - a truly shocking statistic. It would be interesting to see if other information/news sources have verified this statement.

http://www.isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1715499&Lang=E

With statistics like this, the national aviation regulator - the Iran C.A.O (Civil Aviation Organization) should hang their heads in shame. Hundreds of innocent lives have been lost as a result of their incompetence in developing and implementing suitable safety standards. The current head of the Organization, Reza Nakhjavani, has a lot of explaining to do.

[Edited 2011-02-14 03:05:26]

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8114 posts, RR: 53
Reply 1, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 5608 times:

What is odd is that the old American hardware does OK (until last month's 727 accident) despite being very old and covered by US sanctions and therefore runs without support of any kind from the mnfr. Whereas the Russian metal, unencumbered by sanctions, crashes with monotonous regularity - 154s of Iran Air Tours have suffered CFIT, mid-air collision, mechanical failure and pilot error. Taban tried to land in zero vis. Aria's Il-62 landed in the second half of the runway at 200mph. Meanwhile Saha's 707s fly on, year in, year out. And Iranair write-off Fokker 100s on a yearly basis (but never kill anyone along the way, thank god).

So, quite an odd picture, and sanctions are not the only cause of this woeful performance.



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineLH526 From Germany, joined Aug 2000, 2366 posts, RR: 14
Reply 2, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 5476 times:
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Iran get's second-hand 744 and A320, so getting proper parts and maintenance through the same channels should be no problem either ...


Trittst im Morgenrot daher, seh ich dich im Strahlenmeer ...
User currently offlineFlyingsottsman From Australia, joined Oct 2010, 548 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 5360 times:

That suprises me considering the amount of air crashes that have happened in Russia.

User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 5087 times:

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 3):
That suprises me considering the amount of air crashes that have happened in Russia.

What is truly frightening is that Iran comprises just 1% of the worlds population, yet accounts for a QUARTER of all air accident fatalities globally. I believe that this makes Iran the most dangerous country in the world for air travel, on a per-capita basis.


User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4328 posts, RR: 35
Reply 5, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 4925 times:

There have been 2 or 3 military accidents with lots of fatalities (an Il-76 with about 300), did they also count here?
The irony is, I am now in a Tehran hotelroom, in the last 5 days I had 6 wonderful Iranian domestic flights (2 x 707, a Tu-154, A300-B2, A300-600 and A-320) and I felt safe in all of them.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 4729 times:

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 5):
The irony is, I am now in a Tehran hotelroom, in the last 5 days I had 6 wonderful Iranian domestic flights (2 x 707, a Tu-154, A300-B2, A300-600 and A-320) and I felt safe in all of them.

With air safety statistics like Iran's I am not sure it is possible to feel entirely safe on any flight there. True, there is generally a tiny margin of danger in all aircraft flights, in any country, even with state of the art airplanes such as the A380 (e.g. Qantas) however the difference with Iranian aviation is that the margin of danger is generally much larger.

In an attempt to address safety concerns, the head of Iran's C.A.O, Reza Nakhjavani, recently issued an order for the complete removal of Tu-154's from service in Iran. The ban comes into effect later this month:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...-to-ban-tu-154-flights/428929.html

Those familiar with the Tu-154 know that the majority of incidents have been caused as a result of pilot error or freak circumstances (shot down etc) and not an intrinsic fault with the aircraft. In this sense, I do not believe that Nakhjavani's knee jerk/half baked idea to ban all Tu-154's is going to cure the intrinsic safety deficiencies that exist in Iran.

Furthermore, it is simply not sufficient for a national regulator to attempt to take the easy way out by blaming a particular aircraft for the country's poor aviation safety record. Rather, in my opinion, it is the general incompetence and lack of suitable oversight from the C.A.O which is largely to blame for Iran's aviation woes. Banning a particular aircraft type in the hope that it turns things around, is simply naive. But maybe we shouldn't expect too much from a technocrat like Nakhjavani, who is rumored to be just 34 years old and with questionable experience to hold his post.

The Iranian C.A.O and Reza Nakhjavani in particular, must fully accept and live up to the mandate given to them by the Iranian government, for having the responsibility of improving air safety standards for the Iranian people.

A huge amount of work still needs to be done to bring Iran's level of air safety on par with international standards. They could make a start by banning inexperienced, incompetent technocrats, instead of banning aircraft such as the Tu-154 that serves as part of the backbone of their industry, and to which Iran has an easily accessible and plentiful supply of spare parts and technical support.


User currently offlineZKCIF From Lithuania, joined Oct 2010, 297 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 4658 times:

Quoting turbofan1960 (Thread starter):
I'm not sure if the article below is entirely accurate, but if it is, Iran accounts for 25.5% of global air crash fatalities, with 800 out of the 3400 people killed in air crashes over the past 7 years being Iranian - a truly shocking statistic. It would be interesting to see if other information/news sources have verified this statement.

The article posts the biggest POS that might ever happen.
First, between 2003 Jan 1 and now, there have been 458 casualties in Iran according to http://aviation-safety.net/database/dblist.php?Country=EP

Second, with the number of casualties worldwide averaging 700 a year (in crashes of passenger planes exceeding 15 passenger seats), there have been about 5,000 casualties worldwide.

Result? That's about 9 per cent. Horrible, but definitely not 25.5.

Some folks here see what they want to see but they do not check facts at all. If we go on this way, then on February 12, 2009, USA accounted for, GOSH, 100 per cent of aviation casualties on that specific day.


User currently offlineyak42 From Ireland, joined Oct 2000, 801 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4384 times:

That article is total nonsense. Like alot of articles in Iranian papers its probably just made up without reference to anything and repeats the government excuses: Crashes because of sanctions or because of Tu154 and Tu154 because of sanctions. That doesnt explain all the F100 incidents but they'll probably just blame those on sanctions too and hope people will just buy it. Never is the real reason even hinted at: Crashes because of corruption and incompetence.

User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8539 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4340 times:

Quoting turbofan1960 (Reply 4):
I believe that this makes Iran the most dangerous country in the world for air travel, on a per-capita basis.

But probably not on a per flight mile basis. Iran has relatively a lot of flights. Still very poor safety compared to OECD countries. But, my guess is certain African countries have even less oversight and even more danger, on a per flight basis. Even if fewer people die each year. The probability of me dying on a given flight is probably highest in DR Congo or similar.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8539 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4340 times:

On a side note, I asked my Congolese coworker if he had ever ridden a Dassault Mercure... He said yes!

User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6656 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4150 times:

I'm not sure the support for Tu-154s (or any Russian airliner/cargo plane for that matter) is that great.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 7 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4022 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 11):
I'm not sure the support for Tu-154s (or any Russian airliner/cargo plane for that matter) is that great.

Granted, customer support for the Tu-154 may not be on par with the high standards of Airbus and Boeing, however, as it's Russian metal it's not sanctioned and Iran has easy access to spares and support from Tupolev - unlike Boeing and Airbus.


User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4575 posts, RR: 41
Reply 13, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3740 times:

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 7):
First, between 2003 Jan 1 and now, there have been 458 casualties in Iran according to http://aviation-safety.net/database/...ry=EP

I count 740 in the 8 years since 1 Jan 2003 (I suspect you counted since 1 Jan 2004, which is 7 years which the article talked about):

19-FEB-2003 Ilyushin 76MD 15-2280 Iranian Revolutionary Guard 275 near Kerman A1
25-JUN-2003 Lockheed C-130 Iran AF 7 near Rudshour A1
20-APR-2005 Boeing 707-3J9C EP-SHE Saha Air 3 Tehran-Mehra... A1
06-DEC-2005 Lockheed C-130E 5-8519 Iran AF 94+ 12 Tehran A1
09-JAN-2006 Dassault Falcon 20 15-2233 Iranian Revolutionary Guard 11 near Orumiyeh A1
01-SEP-2006 Tupolev 154M EP-MCF Iran Air Tours 28 Mashad Airpo... A1
27-NOV-2006 Antonov 74T-200 15-2255 Iranian Revolutionary Guard 37 Tehran-Mehra... A1
15-FEB-2009 HESA IrAn-140-100 HESA90-04 HESA 5 near Isfahan/Shah... A1
15-JUL-2009 Tupolev 154M EP-CPG Caspian Airlines 168 near Qazvin A1
24-JUL-2009 Ilyushin 62M UP-I6208 Aria Air 16 Mashhad-Shah... A1
22-SEP-2009 Ilyushin 76MD 5-8208 Iran AF 7 near Varamin A1
09-JAN-2011 Boeing 727-286 EP-IRP Iran Air 77 near Urmia (Orumi... A1

However, if we take out Air Force and Revolutionary Guard accidents, we are left with 297 fatalities.

We should also look at ASN's numbers for the years in question. These don't include military, corporate jets or hijacking:
2003 » Over the year 2003 ASN recorded a total of 27 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 684 fatalities and 24 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2004 » Over the year 2004 ASN recorded a total of 28 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 431 fatalities and 3 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2005 » Over the year 2005 ASN recorded a total of 36 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 1062 fatalities and 49 ground fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 3 fatalities.
2006 » Over the year 2006 ASN recorded a total of 27 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 889 fatalities and 4 ground fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 28 fatalities.
2007 » Over the year 2007 ASN recorded a total of 26 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 750 fatalities and 41 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2008 » Over the year 2008 ASN recorded a total of 32 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 577 fatalities and 39 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2009 » Over the year 2009 ASN recorded a total of 30 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 757 fatalities and 1 ground fatalities. 3 accidents in Iran with 189 fatalities.
2010 » Over the year 2010 ASN recorded a total of 29 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 831 fatalities and 6 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
So far in 2011 there have been 6 accidents with 107 fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 77 fatalities.

In total, that makes 6088 civil airliner fatalities in the 8 and a bit years since 1 Jan 2003 (plus 167 ground fatalities), or 5404 civil airliner fatalities in the 7 and a bit years since 1 Jan 2004 (plus 143 ground fatalities). Thus Iran's 297 civilian airliner fatalities represent 4.9% of fatalities since 1 Jan 2003 (4.7% including ground fatalities), or 5.5% since 1 Jan 2004 (5.4% including ground fatalities). Whichever way you look at the numbers, it seems that the numbers in the article cited by turbofan1960 in the thread opener disagree with those from ASN, overstating the number of Iranian fatalities and understating the global fatalities.

I think it is worth pointing out that accident fatalities aren't necessarily the best indicator of safety, given that air accidents are infrequent enough that that statistics can be skewed by chance occurrences, and it ignores non-fatal serious accidents which may be just as relevant. More importantly, it is entirely possible for many safety failures to lie latent for many years without ever manifesting as fatal accidents, by pure good luck (and the corollary is that it is possible for an operation with very few safety failures to have a fatal accident through bad luck). A more thorough analysis of an operator's safety should audit a number of factors, including procedures, processes, training, regulation and oversight.  

On that thought, it is interesting to note that on one hand Iran Air is limited to only operating 14 A300s, 8 A310s and a 737 into the EU according to the list of airlines banned within the EU, but Caspian Airlines, Iran Air, Iran Asseman, Kish Air and Mahan Air all hold IOSA certifications. Read into that what you will.

I would be interested in seeing a breakdown of recent accidents in Iran by cause and contributory factors, and what remedial action, if any, is being taken by authorities to address any recurring safety failures.

On the subject of Russian aircraft, I have heard anecdotal accounts from friends of mine from Iran that Russian types such as Tupolevs are perceived as unsafe by the general public.

V/F



"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
User currently offlinea300 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3667 times:
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Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 13):
On the subject of Russian aircraft, I have heard anecdotal accounts from friends of mine from Iran that Russian types such as Tupolevs are perceived as unsafe by the general public.

Yes, that is indeed the mass perception. As has been mentioned above, the CAO has ordered the entire Tu154M fleet removed by 19FEB11. All of Iran Air Tours' Tu154Ms are newer than Iran Air's own 727-200s. I have flown 12 times on the 154 and I will miss it. I think the type has become the scapegoat for the poor oversight the CAO has exercised over aviation safety. There quite a few small scale operators with questionable financial stability and safety cultures. The fact that the CAO allows SAHA (ie IRIAF) place military 707s and 747s on the civilian register is puzzling and problematic too.

All of this said, the Iranian air crash fatality count has been inflated by including the military and paramilitary crashes. I was on 6 flights operated by Iran Air and Mahan last month, including one on the former's last airworthy 727. I must say that I did not feel particularly unsafe.



Boland Aseman Jayegah Man Ast.
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21627 posts, RR: 55
Reply 15, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3619 times:

Quoting LH526 (Reply 2):
Iran get's second-hand 744 and A320, so getting proper parts and maintenance through the same channels should be no problem either ...

   They might not come from the US, but there's still plenty of support for Boeing products through other countries. And Airbus, being European, doesn't have the same sort of restrictions.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 16, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 3544 times:

This link provides quite a useful indicator of where accidents happen:

http://aviation-safety.net/statistics/geographical/


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3486 times:

Quoting a300 (Reply 14):
As has been mentioned above, the CAO has ordered the entire Tu154M fleet removed by 19FEB11. All of Iran Air Tours' Tu154Ms are newer than Iran Air's own 727-200s. I have flown 12 times on the 154 and I will miss it. I think the type has become the scapegoat for the poor oversight the CAO has exercised over aviation safety.

I totally agree, although unfortunately the CAO seems to be able to constantly get away with their poor standards of oversight, without facing the wrath of the Iranian government. I'm not sure exactly why this is the case, but the very fact that the Iranian Transport Minister (Hamid Behbani) was fired over the Iran Air Boeing 727 crash, shows how adept the CAO is in sidestepping it's responsibilities and putting the blame on the shoulders of others. The person who SHOULD be held accountable for Iran's relatively poor air safety record is the head of the CAO, Reza Nakhjavani.


User currently offlineAviopic From Netherlands, joined Mar 2004, 2681 posts, RR: 41
Reply 18, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3458 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 1):
Meanwhile Saha's 707s fly on, year in, year out. And Iranair write-off Fokker 100s on a yearly basis
Quoting yak42 (Reply 8):
That doesnt explain all the F100 incidents but they'll probably just blame those on sanctions too and hope people will just buy it.

"All" those F100 incidents are easily explained as a function of numbers.
There are 40+ F100's in Iran performing between 120 and 200 flights a day compared to ??? 707/727 performing ??? flights a day ?
If there is a mx problem caused by the sanctions(which are a severe problem) it will most likely show on the frames utilized the most, and it does.



The truth lives in one’s mind, it doesn’t really exist
User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2865 posts, RR: 30
Reply 19, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3454 times:

Iranian airlines (well, at least Iran Air) are subject to E.U. inspection/oversight in order to be able to serve the E.U. Time and time again they satisfy those requirements, whereas other countries and/or their airlines - including Indonesia and the Philippines - fail. So, I have to wonder if travel in Iran is nearly as dangerous as these statistics imply. Seems to me like the Iranians are meeting (or at least fully capable of meeting) safe western standards. Personally, I would much rather fly any Iranian airline than a dubious airline from Central Africa...


Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineyak42 From Ireland, joined Oct 2000, 801 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3239 times:

^^
Mahan Air and Iran Air that both serve the EU have both been subject to restrictions other than political ones. Mahan Air was served with a temporary ban a few tears ago. They could do A LOT better. They have a safety problem. I dont think they are addressing it.

Quoting Aviopic (Reply 18):
If there is a mx problem caused by the sanctions(which are a severe problem) it will most likely show on the frames utilized the most, and it does.

F100 aswell as Tu154 aircraft are popular in Iran for a reason. They are not subject to US sanctions. So the mx issues thrown up by the sanctions should not affect these types. Yet these types are well represented in the woeful incident figures even considering their numbers. Not just fatal accidents but a long list incidents have damaged or written off these types over the years. The goverment and media's favorite scapegoats for fatal crashes are the US (with some justification) and communists/Russians who made the "rubbish" aircraft which they are forced to use (nonsense). In any case this narrative does not fit with Fokker aircraft incidents. Only in the last month have relations between The Hague and Tehran deteriorated to the point that support for Fokker aircraft may be under threat.


User currently offlineAviopic From Netherlands, joined Mar 2004, 2681 posts, RR: 41
Reply 21, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3065 times:

Quoting yak42 (Reply 20):
They are not subject to US sanctions. So the mx issues thrown up by the sanctions should not affect these types.

You couldn't have been more wrong.

Quoting yak42 (Reply 20):
In any case this narrative does not fit with Fokker aircraft incidents.

Check the numbers again and you'll find most F100 incidents happening the last 2 to 3 year and hardly anything the previous 10-15 or so.

Quoting yak42 (Reply 20):
Only in the last month have relations between The Hague and Tehran deteriorated to the point that support for Fokker aircraft may be under threat.

The relation between Fokker and Iranian operators is fine, always has been and the relation The Hague-Tehran has nothing to do with it.
Still no mx(apart from a very few minor things) is allowed(not even mandatory AD-notes).


Yak I don't blame you for missing the point(haven't seen someone who didn't) but this issue is more complicated than obvious for the naked eye.
Include these lines of thinking:
http://www.fokker.com/Defense-USA
http://www.fokker.com/Programs
http://www.fokkerelmo.nl/15777/Products__Markets-Markets.html



The truth lives in one’s mind, it doesn’t really exist
User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3063 times:

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 7):

Second, with the number of casualties worldwide averaging 700 a year (in crashes of passenger planes exceeding 15 passenger seats), there have been about 5,000 casualties worldwide.

According to the data on the following link there have been a total of 919 deaths in Iran as a result of air incidents, since the Fars Qeshm air accident in 2001 that killed 30:

http://aviation-safety.net/database/dblist.php?Country=EP

If we take the above mentioned figure of 700 worldwide casualties (deaths) per year as the average, then in the period 2001 until present there have been approximately 7000 deaths worldwide as a result air accidents. Iran accounts for 919 of these deaths, and therefore approximately 13% of the total. This certainly differs from the figures cited in the article from the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) website, however nevertheless is still a disgracefully high figure.


User currently offlinecloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3032 times:

A large part of which is contributed by the American led embargo on the country. If the Iranians had the spare parts they needed, if they had the newer planes they needed, if they had the technical knowhow they needed transferred, a lot of the deaths could have been avoided. And yet those who are at least partially and/or indirectly responsible are criticizing the Iranian record. What have you offered to help them improve their safety standards? More embargoes.


A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4575 posts, RR: 41
Reply 24, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days ago) and read 2961 times:

Quoting turbofan1960 (Reply 22):
According to the data on the following link there have been a total of 919 deaths in Iran as a result of air incidents, since the Fars Qeshm air accident in 2001 that killed 30:

http://aviation-safety.net/database/dblist.php?Country=EP

If we take the above mentioned figure of 700 worldwide casualties (deaths) per year as the average, then in the period 2001 until present there have been approximately 7000 deaths worldwide as a result air accidents. Iran accounts for 919 of these deaths, and therefore approximately 13% of the total. This certainly differs from the figures cited in the article from the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) website, however nevertheless is still a disgracefully high figure.

You may wish to look at the numbers I crunched up in reply 13. I'll do them again here for the period 1 Jan 2001 to the present.

17-MAY-2001 Yakovlev 40 EP-TQP Faraz Qeshm 30 near Sari A1
12-FEB-2002 Tupolev 154M EP-MBS Iran Air Tours 119 near Sarab-e Do Rah A1
23-DEC-2002 Antonov 140 UR-14003 Aeromist Kharkiv 44 near Baghrabad A1
19-FEB-2003 Ilyushin 76MD 15-2280 Iranian Revolutionary Guard 275 near Kerman A1
25-JUN-2003 Lockheed C-130 Hercules Iran AF 7 near Rudshour A1
20-APR-2005 Boeing 707-3J9C EP-SHE Saha Air 3 Tehran-Mehra... A1
06-DEC-2005 Lockheed C-130E Hercules 5-8519 Iran AF 94+ 12 Tehran A1
09-JAN-2006 Dassault Falcon 20 15-2233 Iranian Revolutionary Guard 11 near Orumiyeh A1
01-SEP-2006 Tupolev 154M EP-MCF Iran Air Tours 28 Mashad Airpo... A1
27-NOV-2006 Antonov 74T-200 15-2255 Iranian Revolutionary Guard 37 Tehran-Mehra... A1
15-FEB-2009 HESA IrAn-140-100 HESA90-04 HESA 5 near Isfahan/Shah... A1
15-JUL-2009 Tupolev 154M EP-CPG Caspian Airlines 168 near Qazvin A1
24-JUL-2009 Ilyushin 62M UP-I6208 Aria Air 16 Mashhad-Shah... A1
22-SEP-2009 Ilyushin 76MD 5-8208 Iran AF 7 near Varamin A1
09-JAN-2011 Boeing 727-286 EP-IRP Iran Air 77 near Urmia (Orumi... A1

The inclusion of the UR-14003 accident is dubious for this comparison given it was not being operated by an Iranian operator. I'll do the numbers both with and without it. With it, there were 933 fatalities (I suspect your number of 919 didn't count ground fatalities as a result of the 5-8519 accident), without it there were 903 fatalities. If we take out Air Force and Revolutionary Guard accidents like we did in the previous analysis, we are left with either 490 or 460 fatalities.

The 10-year average for 2001-2010 actually stands at 785 fatalities, using ASN's numbers for the years in question. These don't include military, corporate jets or hijacking:
2001 » Over the year 2001 ASN recorded a total of 28 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 768 fatalities and 10 ground fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 30 fatalities (UR-14003).
2002 » Over the year 2002 ASN recorded a total of 37 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 1101 fatalities and 78 ground fatalities. 2 accidents in Iran with 163 fatalities.
2003 » Over the year 2003 ASN recorded a total of 27 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 684 fatalities and 24 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2004 » Over the year 2004 ASN recorded a total of 28 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 431 fatalities and 3 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2005 » Over the year 2005 ASN recorded a total of 36 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 1062 fatalities and 49 ground fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 3 fatalities.
2006 » Over the year 2006 ASN recorded a total of 27 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 889 fatalities and 4 ground fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 28 fatalities.
2007 » Over the year 2007 ASN recorded a total of 26 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 750 fatalities and 41 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2008 » Over the year 2008 ASN recorded a total of 32 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 577 fatalities and 39 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
2009 » Over the year 2009 ASN recorded a total of 30 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 757 fatalities and 1 ground fatalities. 3 accidents in Iran with 189 fatalities.
2010 » Over the year 2010 ASN recorded a total of 29 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents, resulting in 831 fatalities and 6 ground fatalities. No accidents in Iran.
So far in 2011 there have been 6 accidents with 107 fatalities. 1 accident in Iran with 77 fatalities.

In total, that makes 7957 civil airliner fatalities in the 10 and a bit years since 1 Jan 2001 (plus 255 ground fatalities). Given the above annual numbers don't include military operations, it would be incorrect to include Iranian military accidents when determining the percentages. This shouldn't be an issue here anyway, since we are discussing civil aviation. Thus Iran's 490/460 civilian airliner fatalities represent 6.2%/5.8% of fatalities since 1 Jan 2001 (6.0%/5.6% including ground fatalities). Again I would draw your attention to the pro viso I made before in providing these numbers:

Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 13):
I think it is worth pointing out that accident fatalities aren't necessarily the best indicator of safety, given that air accidents are infrequent enough that that statistics can be skewed by chance occurrences, and it ignores non-fatal serious accidents which may be just as relevant. More importantly, it is entirely possible for many safety failures to lie latent for many years without ever manifesting as fatal accidents, by pure good luck (and the corollary is that it is possible for an operation with very few safety failures to have a fatal accident through bad luck). A more thorough analysis of an operator's safety should audit a number of factors, including procedures, processes, training, regulation and oversight.  

For what it is worth, if I have time tomorrow I will run the numbers over a longer time scale, and see whether we can see any trends developing.

V/F



"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
25 turbofan1960 : Iranian operators have been able to acquire the mentioned aircraft, but as I understand, still have serious difficulties obtaining spares and mainten
26 UAL747DEN : I have a novel idea; if the Iranian's don't like the sanctions they should comply with the international community and the sanctions would be lifted.
27 turbofan1960 : We could consider the fact that Iran's national aviation regulator (CAO) is highly incompetent - I think that has a pretty big bearing on Iran's air
28 Viscount724 : The IOSA audit for Iran Air also doesn't cover all their aircraft. The following note appears next to the IR entry in the IOSA carrier list in the IA
29 Post contains links turbofan1960 : As Iran's C.A.O has now officially banned the Tu-154 from service it looks like the "IRAN-140" is going to be phased in to fill the gap. More info on
30 AirNZ : With due respect, I do not believe you do either and you are confusing many sactions from 'the international community' as that of refusing to do the
31 Post contains images PlymSpotter : That is not going to work. Replacing a large fleet of 180 seat Tu-154Ms with half a dozen or so 50 seat IRAN-140s which, ironically, have a proportio
32 turbofan1960 : As you correctly point out, the IRAN-140 has a proportionally worse safety record than the Tu-154Ms - I can't understand why the C.A.O has banned the
33 Post contains images PlymSpotter : I wouldn't say it's incompetence, the opposite in fact; I'd say it's a cleverly orchestrated fanfare for Iran's national aircraft industry - if you l
34 turbofan1960 : Considering the point you raise, that would imply that the head of the C.A.O, Reza Nakhjavani, has endorsed the plan for the IRAN-140 to absorb Tu-15
35 Post contains links and images VirginFlyer : Well, it took me a bit longer to get around to it than expected, but here it is. The numbers are all sourced from http://aviation-safety.net and take
36 Post contains images PlymSpotter : I don't think it's acting against the interests of passenger safety, the safety records of the two are, considering the claims made, bemusingly ironi
37 Post contains links turbofan1960 : If the head of a national aviation regulator bans a specific type of aircraft (Tu-154), because it is deemed to be "too dangerous" and at the same ti
38 Post contains images PlymSpotter : No, you are forgetting that you have to take it in context. That is key. Dan
39 Tu204 : Ok, I don't know much about the Iranian situation. I know one thing: No Russian airlines want to buy Tupolevs that were used in Iran and China. A very
40 turbofan1960 : Totally agree - the head of the C.A.O SHOULD do more to improve the maintenance criteria required for flight approval in Iran. Instead the C.A.O swee
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