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107 Boeing 747-8's Ordered So Far  
User currently offlineturbofan1960 From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 122 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 28701 times:

Interesting article concerning the sales of the Boeing 747-8:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...47-8-sales-in-middle-east-and.html

67 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10733 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 28622 times:

Interesting yes, nothing new though in the details.
There is a 50%+ chance Korean Air will take more 748Is. Not so sure about LH, I hope they´ll convert their options though. Btw I found LH´s Buchholz speech rather weak yesterday. TK, well, they´ve been good for many surprises in recent years. They have expressed interest in the A380, but the step seems rather ambitious to me, giving the 748I indeed a chance.

But I have virtually given up any predictions regarding the 748I, there have been too many disappointments on the sales front. The key will be to make the 748I look better against the 77W. Boeing will never acknowledge that, but thats the truth.


User currently offlinekrisyyz From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 28298 times:

I personally think that the success or failure of the flight test campaign will have significant influence on future sales of the -8. I remember that the B77W shattered Boeing's performance expectations during its flight testing. Perhaps the -8 will do the same. A lot of airlines are too nervous at the moment not only because of the global economic uncertainty but also due to the troubles that Boeing has had with the B787.

The B747-8 can be a very attractive aircraft for current users of the B744. If the economy improves significantly over the next year, some airlines may very well operate diverse fleets and therefore the B747-8 may find a sweet spot with some large carriers.

Will the B747-8 go the way of the A346/5 or the B764 ? Or will it be a late bloomer like the original 747 or the A330 ? Only the future will tell.

KrisYYZ


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4105 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 27904 times:

Even though I don't think it will happen, maybe Boeing can offer UA a sweetheart deal on 10 or so as part of 787 delay compensation...

User currently offlineSchorschNG From Germany, joined Sep 2010, 500 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 27709 times:

They say that pretty much every year.
The red color and the big "8" on the tail will probably not knock Asian decision makers into a state of blind optimism about this aircraft. Most airlines will probably see how well it performs. For many network carriers it suffices to use a B777-300ER on most route or switch to increased frequency. When demand increases the step to an A380 isn't that far.

Even if Boeing scores more orders, the prices will probably not be that great.



From a structural standpoint, passengers are the worst possible payload. [Michael Chun-Yung Niu]
User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21461 posts, RR: 53
Reply 5, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 27557 times:

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 2):
Will the B747-8 go the way of the A346/5 or the B764 ? Or will it be a late bloomer like the original 747 or the A330 ? Only the future will tell.

The availability of A380 delivery slots will probably be a major factor as well.


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 24903 times:

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 3):
compensation...

Now that is interesting. How about QR for replacement of the 340-600s? How about the China group of airlines? They've not been big buyers of the 77Ws, so they fit in the space well. Also as that market expands they will need various size of a/c to support growth. How about LAN, don't they have a need for some hot and high? How about KL, they have such a small fleet of 77Ws? The US airlines are excellent customers, since only one has pruchased two 77Ws? Then you have the strange world of Thailand, who knows what fleet plant they will have.


User currently onlinedfambro From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 327 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 24027 times:

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 3):
maybe Boeing can offer UA a sweetheart deal on 10 or so as part of 787 delay compensation...

UA's order was only a year ago, so most of the 787 delay was already factored in


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4105 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 23534 times:

Quoting dfambro (Reply 7):
UA's order was only a year ago, so most of the 787 delay was already factored in

Continental's wasn't, and they were not merged at the time of the order...I don't think Boeing compensated UA for CO's much longer delay.


User currently offlineultrapig From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 23264 times:
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OK in the same denisty what is the difference on seat per mile between the i and the W?

With modest density seating how do they differ?


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6907 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 23156 times:

Quoting krisyyz (Reply 2):
I personally think that the success or failure of the flight test campaign will have significant influence on future sales of the -8.

  
The numbers will dictate the future for both the 748i and 748F. The competition is the 77W and 777F; if the 748 gives better economics it will sell; if it doesn't it won't; simple as that. And if the 777NG comes along the 748 will then be in competition with that as well. If the numbers prove that it can be economically competitive with the A380 then it will steal some sales from it. But it has to prove itself first.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineSchorschNG From Germany, joined Sep 2010, 500 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 22619 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
The numbers will dictate the future for both the 748i and 748F. The competition is the 77W and 777F; if the 748 gives better economics it will sell; if it doesn't it won't; simple as that. And if the 777NG comes along the 748 will then be in competition with that as well. If the numbers prove that it can be economically competitive with the A380 then it will steal some sales from it. But it has to prove itself first.

As you imply the B747-8I is equally competing with the A380 as it is with the B777-300ER.
The B747-8I probably exceeds demand of most directly linked city pairs which are not hubs.
Maybe US airlines will shift to amore hub'n spoke type of network in the future, and demand for larger aircraft bounce back. Then the B747-8 may become an attractive alternative, also due to early availability (I think getting one in 2013 is possible).

Hansa's B747-8I has a lower seat count than Emirates' B777-300ERs.
Hansa's aircraft will feature a large business class (80, their A380 has 98). It depends on what type of PAX the airline wants to move. As the B747-8 is slightly less attractive for business class seating (its main deck is too wide for a normal 2-2-2 layout, the upper deck is a bit too narrow.

Not sure how the low number of orders in combination with its limited future makes it less attractive as financial asset.



From a structural standpoint, passengers are the worst possible payload. [Michael Chun-Yung Niu]
User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1111 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 22208 times:

How do the list prices compare between the 747-8i/F and the 77W/F?

User currently offline14ccKemiskt From Sweden, joined Nov 2010, 71 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 21241 times:

Quoting SchorschNG (Reply 4):

They say that pretty much every year.
The red color and the big "8" on the tail will probably not knock Asian decision makers into a state of blind optimism about this aircraft.

Word. I can not see why this event would trigger more sales than any other during the last five years. If airplanes were sold based upon flashy house liveries and roll out events we would live in a strange world. I can understand that many people are emotionally attached to this model, but emotions doesn't sell that many planes either.


User currently offlinekl911 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2003, 5136 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 20283 times:

Hmm, how about the 5 or 6 full pax 744,s KLM has to replace? Im sure they can fill the A380 or 748 to PBM, CUR, AUA, NYC and JNB

User currently offlineMCO2BRS From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2007, 540 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 19507 times:

Quoting kl911 (Reply 14):
Hmm, how about the 5 or 6 full pax 744,s KLM has to replace?

If and when KL decides to replace the full pax 744's (415 seats) I can see them being replaced by 77W's (425 seats).

Cheers

MCO 2 BRS


User currently offlineNCLflysBA From UK - England, joined Nov 2010, 15 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 19452 times:

Bucholz kept saying the same thing over n over again! u could tell he was dying to mention the word Airbus A380 along side his largest 744 fleet  


The Webs Favourite Aviation Enthusiast :-D
User currently offlineBoeEngr From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 321 posts, RR: 35
Reply 17, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 19386 times:

It's a beautiful aircraft. I, for one, love the color scheme. What a great surprise!

Congrats to the 747 team for yet again producing a beauty for the rest of us to admire!

Now, let's hope for many more sales. Hopefully a successful flight test program can help with this.

BoeEngr

[Edited 2011-02-14 14:36:46]

User currently offlineGarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2654 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 19267 times:

I have dibs on my mates car if this bird fails to sell 250 units before 2020.

Mmmm... 1968 Dodge Charger.....

[Edited 2011-02-14 14:40:03]


arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6170 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 19232 times:

LAN and IB need them bad for LatAm.....MEX-MAD, SCL-FRA, maybe even a new LIM-LHR screams for the 748i


When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 19007 times:

LH FRA-IAH most could be a likely route. The heavy biz cabin could fill up.


“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
User currently offlineusair330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 824 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (3 years 7 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 17379 times:

I think the 747-8 will see more orders depending on if it meets the expected performance. I would expect another order after they are put in service with Lufthansa and Korean.

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User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 14674 times:

Well this certainly opened my eyes. KL's 77W have 425 seats in them, while Boeing says 467 can sit in a -8I comfortablely. So a 77W leaves 42 at the gate, does it honestly make sense to have two additional engines to carry those extra passengers? I guess the industry is saying, make the 77W more efficient and give us those extra seats with two engines. As much as I hate to admit it, those 42 additional passengers may not produce enought revenue to justify the the -8I investment.

User currently offline328JET From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 14428 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 22):
As much as I hate to admit it, those 42 additional passengers may not produce enought revenue to justify the the -8I investment.

The main problem is:

These additional 42 pax are mainly y-class, which means an airline gets only 400-700 Euros for a return ticket from them.

That is nearly equal to the fuel burn costs of these 42 pax, which means the extra revenue is very low.


The question is:

What is the real price of a B77W and a B748I for the same airline?

Is it worth to pay the higher price or is it better to focus on high yield pax?


And that answer is different from airline to airline.


User currently offlineSankaps From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2255 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (3 years 7 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 13326 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 22):
Well this certainly opened my eyes. KL's 77W have 425 seats in them, while Boeing says 467 can sit in a -8I comfortablely

I don't think many people will call KLM's 425-seater 77Ws comfortable! At similar density, I would expect the -8I to seat 500+.


25 BlueSky1976 : I think at one time I've seen Boeing advertising standard two-class seating for 747-8i at 520 or so passengers. I'd expect more passenger comfort in
26 Post contains links AirCanada787 : The 2010 prices in millions were: 747-8i - 317.7 77W - 284.1 747F - 319.3 77F - 269.1 Taken from Boeing's own website: http://www.boeing.com/commerci
27 SSTsomeday : Actually some of us remember the 747 to be a true "nine."
28 MSPNWA : I do too. I feel that if the 747-8 does really well in testing, more orders will come in and make the program a success for Boeing. But that's a big
29 Post contains images wilco737 : I really do hope it will become a success. 107 orders aren't too many yet. Compared to the 787 orders. I still keep my fingers crossed more airlines
30 Post contains images Sankaps : I hope this is proven true. I am not an A or B fanboy, but I think the 747 design is a classic, and would love to see it around for another 40 years
31 SchorschNG : More "true" than the B777 as 10-abreast or the B787 as 9-abreast. The new "true" 10-abreast is the A380. Another disadvantage of the B747, while airl
32 Burkhard : Lufthansa needs the 40 long term. Of course they will wait to see how it really performs, but then I see some smaller addon orders to get most or all
33 Sankaps : I just flew Y class on an EK A380, and did not notice the 10-abreast A380 to be any different (wider seats) than a 10-abreast 747. So any difference
34 gipsy : The A380 has a 48cm larger cabin width than the B747. That translates to 4,8cm wider seat space per seat at 10 abreast. assuming the aisle is equally
35 Sankaps : However is this 4.8m largely lost in the "gap" between the window seat and the window? I really did not notice any difference in the actual seat widt
36 Post contains images francoflier : Could be true, but that Braniff orange -100 you posted looks about as sexy to me as a big chunk of aluminium can ever get! No amount of cosmetic enha
37 Aesma : Well, Boeing and GE have already conceded that the fuel burn of the GEnx-2B is not where it should be, and that it will not be corrected before a 201
38 Post contains links gipsy : As the 747 and the main deck of the A380 have nearly perpendicular side walls I would presume that this is not a real issue there. I tend to believe
39 NAV20 : Sincerely hope that's the way it works out, Sankaps - but the figures so far don't support anything like that outcome. Boeing have so far sold only 1
40 CFBFrame : Point being, is it really worth the additional investment in adding another a/c type to your fleet when the good portion of that revenue will be on t
41 Sankaps : Interesting line of thought. If we extend the logic in the other direction, why dont airlines only fly BBJs or A318s with business class seating only
42 SEPilot : These differences are really peanuts when operating costs are considered. Also, since nobody pays list, the actual differences are much smaller. If a
43 CFBFrame : There are examples of that actually happening; BA's all business A318s and SQ's all business A340-500s. But it will need to support their long term s
44 SSTsomeday : Much as I love the 747, you are right. I wonder if any airline will ever try to do 3-5-3 on the 380?
45 tugger : I always find it annoying that people seem to believe this, that Y class passengers don't matter and airlines don't care about them. The truth is the
46 cosmofly : The 748i may also find a new place in premium traffic routes, especially with its king of VVIP plane status. The recent Korean Air plan to equip their
47 Post contains images travelavnut : Which it is indeed. I still find it incredible they sold 6 of those flying palaces! She´s still the prettiest of them all! Indeed, although, as an A
48 Klaus : That seems very unlikely for several reasons, 40 years of difference in aerodynamics being the primary one (the updated part of the aircraft begins o
49 Post contains links and images zippyjet : Thats what I like to see; order books gaining weight. Hope Boeing, Airbus and the smaller companies keep having an increase in business. Shows maybe t
50 WingedMigrator : Forget gaps and cabin width, and just compare cabin floor width. 5.90 m for the 747 and 6.30 m for the A380 main deck.
51 Aerosol : So far it is more successfull than the 346....
52 SchorschNG : John Leahy once said it's possible.
53 Sankaps : Yes I know it is happening. The point I was trying to make is that the airlines are still not giving up large aircraft and Y class, nor are they like
54 Klaus : Airbus and Boeing obviously use different nacelle technologies, apparently for patent licensing reasons among other things. Airbus has made quite a b
55 turbofan1960 : I'm not sure about that - I think that the VIP A380 "Flying Palace" ordered by a Saudi prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz truly holds the king o
56 328JET : The floor is the important factor for the possible number of seats in each row. But for the passenger the difference of the cabin width is visible at
57 UAEflyer : Well, we are back to such mentaltiy which thinks that those wealthy people are aliens and came from outter space. I can assure you, unlike your rumor
58 SchorschNG : Pretty stupid investment indeed. I think the B747-8 is the better VVVVVVIP aircraft. While I think no human needs anything bigger than an A319 or com
59 SEPilot : Hey, when you get into this league, it's a matter of ego and personal taste far more than practicality. For personal transportation anything larger t
60 rheinwaldner : Please do the best you can and dig out the most likely A380 delivery rate in 2015. Just consult the best sources and the closests approximations. You
61 Garpd : Please read posts more carefully and quote in proper context. NAV20 was clearly referring to the rate of 16 deliveries a year which was achieved in 2
62 Klaus : That assumption is most likely unrealistic.
63 Garpd : Never said otherwise. However, Airbus are not going to be able to double the production before the 748i enters service are they? The quick delivery a
64 rheinwaldner : That was exactly my point. It is so artificially unrealistic that it mostly speaks about the agenda of the poster. How can you draw any meaningful co
65 Garpd : That is not a true comparison, as the A380 is being delivered. The 787 and 748i are not. NAV20 mused over deliveries that have actually happened. He
66 rheinwaldner : If I would have been mean I would have said 2010-delivery rates. But I have not. In 2011 I assume that Boeing will deliver some 787's and 748's. You
67 Garpd : No, because they have not happened yet. A380 deliveries on the other hand, have. It's a remarkably simple concept, you just can't accept it for some
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