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Head Of ALPA: More Mergers Inevitable. Who's Next?  
User currently offlineNorthwest727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 491 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8122 times:

U.S. Pilots Union chief: more mergers inevitable

Quote:
(Reuters) - More mergers of U.S. airlines are inevitable and essential for domestic carriers to compete globally, the new president of the largest pilots union said on Wednesday.

Lee Moak of the Air Line Pilots Association told reporters that passenger airlines are still too vulnerable to fuel price spikes and other business conditions that threaten industry profitability.

"I believe we need to be there sooner rather than later because we need to compete globally," he said. "How it will shake out remains to be seen."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...rlines-union-idUSTRE71F4RD20110216

Looking back into past threads, I've seen that US was in talks to create an alliance with AA in 2008, and of course, the failed US and UA merger of the 2001 and 2010. If Mr. Moak of ALPA is indeed correct, who do you think would be next?



[Edit: Link]

[Edited 2011-02-17 13:24:57]

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineflyorski From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 987 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8065 times:

Hawaii, Alaska, US...

Frontier, Jetblue, VIrgin America

AA--find a partner or die.. The problem is that no one wants the labor issues they face. If ownership laws get changed (highly unlikely) they could get purchased by an Asian or European mega carrier. The economy in the U.S. does not seem to be strong enough to support multiple weak carriers, and would rather support two to four stronger airlines.



"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2757 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8007 times:

I think that US may still be in the fold with UA/CO once UA/CO finish their merging...

User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 3, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 7997 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
I think that US may still be in the fold with UA/CO once UA/CO finish their merging..

I don't think the Feds would allow that.



Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19559 posts, RR: 58
Reply 4, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 7998 times:

Quoting flyorski (Reply 1):


AA--find a partner or die.. The problem is that no one wants the labor issues they face.

That and they have a distinct history of DESTROYING airlines that they acquire without a trace. TWA, RenoAir, etc. The whole point of a merger is that you are supposed to come out of it a bigger, stronger carrier with the best attributes of all the initial parts. And so the result is that the resulting AA is the same beast it was before the merger, with nothing gained except maybe a few aircraft.

But I agree that the labor issues are really bad. AA is in a bad way.

I think that the next mergers will be more along the lines of the US/HP merger, where the minnow swallows the shark. I can see B6 merging with someone, but I'm not sure who yet. I see some LCC/startup bootstrapping happening.

But if WN can swallow Airtran, then anything can happen.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2510 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7733 times:

Quoting flyorski (Reply 1):
Hawaii, Alaska, US...

Funny you mention this one - on a recent flight I was seated next to a US pilot who was non-revving back to his home base in PHX. We got to talking and the subject of mergers came up. He said he'd heard word from up the ladder at US that there's a deal in the works between US, AS and FL. Of course, there's a thread on here every week about AS merging with someone so I don't put too much stock in this rumor. Just throwing it out there as it related to the topic.


User currently offlinergreenftm From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 299 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7701 times:

Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
Funny you mention this one - on a recent flight I was seated next to a US pilot who was non-revving back to his home base in PHX. We got to talking and the subject of mergers came up. He said he'd heard word from up the ladder at US that there's a deal in the works between US, AS and FL. Of course, there's a thread on here every week about AS merging with someone so I don't put too much stock in this rumor. Just throwing it out there as it related to the topic.

I roll my eyes as soon as I hear "a pilot told me"...but that said, how is FL going to merge with someone if they are already merging with WN?

[Edited 2011-02-17 16:05:40]

User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2510 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7580 times:

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 6):
I roll my eyes as soon as I hear "a pilot told me"...but that said, how is FL going to merge with someone if they are already merging with WN?

Damn, wrong airline code - Frontier, not Airtran. My bad - but yeah, like I said, I don't put much stock in these rumors


User currently offlinetoltommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3289 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7505 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
I think that US may still be in the fold with UA/CO once UA/CO finish their merging...
Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 3):
I don't think the Feds would allow that.

Nor would the US East pilots. There's far too much baggage at US to absorb another merger at this point. Just a thought, but if US had been allowed to die (instead of being bought by HP) I wonder if all these mergers would have happened.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 5):
there's a thread on here every week about AS merging with someone so I don't put too much stock in this rumor.

When DL and AS signed their agreement last year, didn't DL get some kind of right of first refusal?


User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2360 posts, RR: 26
Reply 9, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7413 times:

Quoting flyorski (Reply 1):
AA--find a partner or die.. The problem is that no one wants the labor issues they face.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4):
But I agree that the labor issues are really bad. AA is in a bad way.

I'm sorry, but since when has US been labor issue free? Last time I checked, they're STILL fenced in. And how many years has it been since they "merged"? Not to mention the Pilots starting a whole new union.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4):
That and they have a distinct history of DESTROYING airlines that they acquire without a trace. TWA, RenoAir, etc.

At least they're integrated, unlike USwest/east. And, I'm sorry but the whole PSA merger was just as "destroying" as AirCal. Where are all those routes from PSA? So let's not make it out to look bright and cheery at other airlines. AA has issues, no denying that. But there are others who are not far behind.

I will give it to US for adopting retro liveries from all their past airlines. That's something AA should do.



"The low fares airline."
User currently offlineSanti319 From Mexico, joined Dec 2005, 395 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 7267 times:

VX and NK....just sayin what everybody is talking about in Miramar....

User currently offlineBlueman87 From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 535 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7133 times:

Frontier and jetBlue keeping the jetBlue Brand i hope is more likely


B6 T5 JFK DL T2/3 JFK
User currently offlineFlying_727 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 435 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7058 times:

Quoting flyorski (Reply 1):
Hawaii, Alaska,

I normally don't contribute to these types of discussions, but this merger idea got me excited! Great service and staff with both carriers and they seem to be running strong at the moment. Would be interesting to see how they operate: 2 seperate carriers, one carrier called "Alaska & Hawaii," or maybe even "The Last Two States." Maybe take Hawaiian back to "Proudly all Boeing" as well.

Flying_727


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4263 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6961 times:

Is Moak doing his members any favors by coming out with a statement like this? He almost makes it sound like mergers would be good for the ALPA membership as a whole. I am not sure that I share this philosophy. This is even more true if airlines like DL and UA decertify ALPA and form their own inhouse unions (Think USAPA). Then basically ALPA becomes a regional union.

While I feel more consolidation will happen, I don't see anything happening with the Majors or the National carriers in the near future. I do see more mergers at the Regional Level, with Air Wisconsin, Comair, and American Eagle all prime candidates to be bought by other carriers.


User currently offline727forever From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 793 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 6859 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 13):
Is Moak doing his members any favors by coming out with a statement like this? He almost makes it sound like mergers would be good for the ALPA membership as a whole. I am not sure that I share this philosophy. This is even more true if airlines like DL and UA decertify ALPA and form their own inhouse unions (Think USAPA). Then basically ALPA becomes a regional union.

Moak sees things from a different perspective than most. I met him a couple of years ago. Interesting fellow. From my observations he seems to see things on a macro level and generally is way ahead of everyone else in his foresight. That being said he can be a bit myopic with day to day issues. Fortunately, macro is his job as ALPA President.

I think he is neither doing harm or really helping the membership with the statement alone. I would think his statement is more of a preparation for the industry and membership to be ready for what is yet to come. I think he is telling the leaders of each MEC not to get caught with their guard down. They need to be assessing what the likely scenarios are and beginning discussions with the pilot leaders at those companies. What they should not do is retrench into their corners. He is saying that it is true that for the health of industry more consolidation is necessary. If the industry is healthy the membership is healthy. His statement is also to our Government. He is telling the Politicians not to interfere.

Moak is a quiet leader but a very strong leader. He prefers to do work behind closed doors and reach mutually beneficial agreements. When needed he will make statements like this but they are always calculated and are made to deliver a message.

As far as your comment about DL & UA and decertifying ALPA, while it is possible, quite unlikely. There will always be factions that are a minority who make a lot of noise but generally lack substance. Occasionally a crisis will push the majority to panic and side with the minority faction such as the US east group after their merger committee botched the integration negotiations. What has USAPA accomplished up to this point? Certainly not a whole lot considering all of the noise they made while decertifying ALPA.

727forever



727forever
User currently offlinecbphoto From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1552 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 6735 times:

I say these comments are more prevalent to the regional market. I think their are still more mergers to come from within the regionals! With companies looking to shed more 50 seat RJs and the possibility of EAS disappearing altogether, I think the market is very saturated. I think the merger show is about to begin at an airline (regional) near you  


ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 6678 times:

Quoting Blueman87 (Reply 11):
Frontier and jetBlue keeping the jetBlue Brand i hope is more likely

As long as they keep the tails painted like Frontier does, fine with me.


User currently offlinebahadir From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 1779 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 6115 times:

Republic has a very low market cap that makes it really attractive to be bought up..Of course it can be had for even lower than the market cap price , as long as you can split Frontier and CPA operations and sell the CPA ops to a rich regional carrier like skywest or the new pinnacle..


Earthbound misfit I
User currently offlinedeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9338 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5878 times:

1st of all, I think Lee Moak is a dumbass...just saying.

Quoting rgreenftm (Reply 6):

Me too. It is kinda shocking how little some pilots know. ( I had a DL pilot, 777 pilot, tell me they didn't 777-200ERs only LRs and they could have gotten them with Trent 1000s but went GE last min.)

Quoting toltommy (Reply 8):

When DL and AS signed their agreement last year, didn't DL get some kind of right of first refusal?

No one knows the details but they have something(my guess is someone will have to pay pretty big money) if they merge with someone that is not Delta. I don't really believe they have control over AS as far as who they can and cant merge with.

Quoting apodino (Reply 13):
This is even more true if airlines like DL and UA decertify ALPA and form their own inhouse union

Let go DPA.



yep.
User currently offlineetops1 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1073 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 5213 times:

Everyone keeps saying that the feds won't allow a UA/US merger. US is not a big airline. They only represent 8% of the Us market share. They would have to divest in some assets but it can be done and frankly ,I think it's whats going to happen . As far as the labor relations go .I think that will be a moot point when this opportunity presents itself .

User currently offlineNorthwest727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 491 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 5094 times:

I'm wondering what will happen to the regional side of things. I think that the majors are almost done merging, but the market seems saturated with regionals. With fewer majors, there will be presumably fewer regional contracts; I wonder if the regionals will start to mass merge in order to survive. Of course, anything I am saying just pure speculation.

User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 5060 times:

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 18):
Me too. It is kinda shocking how little some pilots know. ( I had a DL pilot, 777 pilot, tell me they didn't 777-200ERs only LRs and they could have gotten them with Trent 1000s but went GE last min.)

And I had a boeing one recently trying to tell me that KLM was going to operate non-stop A332 flights of 17 (yes 17) in an all business class and premium economy class configuration. Yes... were do you begin (he didnt work for KLM but another airline and also was a boeing pilot)... I was wondering how interested he was in aircrat for a start?


User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7519 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4516 times:

Quoting etops1 (Reply 19):
Everyone keeps saying that the feds won't allow a UA/US merger.

To some degree, that's exactly what happened in the 2000-2001 attempt. It was the Justice Department that blew the whistle on them.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/ar...0080501biz-USAirwaysMerger-01.html

Exerpt:

Economic realities of the airline industry, which was struggling even before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, also made the deal's price tag increasingly exorbitant. By the time the Justice Department formally rejected the deal after 14 months, United already was moving to try to call it off.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 19):
US is not a big airline.

They're bigger in size now than they were in 2000-2001; courtesy of the 2005 HP-US merger. UA also just recently got much bigger courtesy of the CO merger.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 19):
As far as the labor relations go .I think that will be a moot point when this opportunity presents itself .

Moot point? The HP-US merger is over 5 years old and the pilot groups STILL aren't integrated yet.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5220 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4414 times:

Quoting flyorski (Reply 1):
AA--find a partner or die.. The problem is that no one wants the labor issues they face. If ownership laws get changed (highly unlikely) they could get purchased by an Asian or European mega carrier. The economy in the U.S. does not seem to be strong enough to support multiple weak carriers, and would rather support two to four stronger airlines.

AA's situation isn't as dire as people think, and merging AA with a carrier of any size will be more trouble than it's worth. Neither AA nor TW pilots were happy with how the merger worked, and AA pilots aren't going to be overly cooperative with another merger, whether it's US, AS, or B6 (the carriers that make the most sense).

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4):
That and they have a distinct history of DESTROYING airlines that they acquire without a trace. TWA, RenoAir, etc. The whole point of a merger is that you are supposed to come out of it a bigger, stronger carrier with the best attributes of all the initial parts. And so the result is that the resulting AA is the same beast it was before the merger, with nothing gained except maybe a few aircraft.

AA doesn't destroy the carriers it merges with. The problem has been timing.

AA bought Air Cal, and then Southwest moved into the West Coast. It ran AA (Air Cal) out of SJC. It ran US (PSA) out of the West Coat. DL scaled back the old Western operation. UA responded with Shuttle by United, which wasn't a great success by any means.

AA bought Reno, and then the tech/dot.com bubble burst. A friend of mine tells me that it was just insane how dot.com executives were flying first class out of SJC (and SFO), because they were flush with IPO cash. Couple that with the tech sector going south (the aftermath of the Y2K spending spree), and the likes of Hewlitt-Packerd and Apple cut back on business travel.

Add the decline in travel to Las Vegas and Reno after 9/11, and it's no wonder that there is nothing left of the QQ operations at LAS, RNO, and SJC.

AA bought TWA, and then 9/11 came. The whole point of TWA was to get a reliever hub for ORD, since the summer of 2000 had been miserable with delays and cancellations due to a very stormy season. But with the downturn in travel, and the fact that St. Loius doesn't generate as much O&D traffic as Chicago and the Metroplex, STL turned into excess capacity.

Also, TWA had a lot of route authorities, used and unused, that over time, became worthless with Open Skies agreements.


User currently offlinegoblin211 From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4339 times:

I'd rather see competition as our free market economy is based on but if anyone should merge it should be AA and US. this way we have a national airline carrier that bares our nation's name on it. i.e BA, Turkish airways, qatar, etc. merging with B6 makes sense since they have codeshares with them i think. i'm really just basing my preference off of namesake though. It's not like i'd stomp my fet like a three-year old if AA chose B6 though.


From the airport with love
25 flyby519 : I agree that the regionals need consolidation as well, especially within the USAir Express carriers. But I doubt Lee Moak was referring to regionals
26 flyorski : Why would you assume that US will split in half? Just because the pilot groups are not integrated does not mean its two companies. Long term they can
27 AA767400 : Well, the flight attendants are not integrated as well. From what I have seen, these two groups do not get along at all. The onboard experience leave
28 mariner : I very much doubt that Republic could be had for less than than the present market price, that is the present price per share. If it were then, as a
29 Post contains images deltal1011man : Do they even have SOC? lol. Some Pilots and FAs are badddd about rumors and not knowing stuff. Now maintenance .... they aren't bad about that kinda
30 goldenstate : And why do you think that? Yes, he is doing them a huge favor by saying things that are based on reality, as opposed to what the extremist minority o
31 deltal1011man : anyone who can sell....sorry wrong word....give away Scope like he did at DALPA and say its a good thing for the pilots of DALPA is stupid. Now me pe
32 slcdeltarumd11 : AA is still a very large airline. I think its much more important they try to reduce costs most notably labor than merge. They have alot of great rou
33 Post contains images flyorski : This is all true, although the subpar product is of course based on opinion I guess the reason I look at them differently is because AA burns a lot o
34 ca2ohHP : No kidding - I can't imagine any carrier wanting to become involved in any way with US's pilot "integration" war. It's pretty toxic with no end in si
35 DTWPurserBoy : I would look for a DL/Alaska merger. We need more presence on the west coast, fleets are compatable. But mostly for the bragging rights of being "The
36 deltal1011man : 1st off, happy anet birthday!! 2nd Why does everyone say this? I don't see what HA brings Delta..... AS is by far the best partner, then i would say
37 Post contains images UnitedTristar : Sweet...and they can name the airline "the final two" or "49/50" -m
38 cloudboy : While I wouldn't doubt one more merger just for the sake of keeping up with fashion, I don't think we will see any more major mergers. While it sounds
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