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Will We Ever See Certain A/c Off The Map Entirely?  
User currently offlinegoblin211 From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6292 times:

I was browsing through the database of pictures at MIA and i saw a lot of Amerijet 727s and Centurion cargo MDs, etc. this got me thinking, will airlines ever really replace their outdated a/c? My mindset is, if Amerijet still keeps their 727s around then why would an airline such as DL replace their DC9s let's say? Yes i know their getting outdated and will eventually need to be replaced but there are so many old a/c from the 80's or so flying for modern airlines today so what's the rush? and when DL let's say replaces their 744s with the 748i will we ever really see the 744s in VCV or wherever?


From the airport with love
10 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineIMissPiedmont From United States of America, joined May 2001, 6287 posts, RR: 34
Reply 1, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5820 times:

You don't see many Curtiss Condors around these days so yes, all airplanes disappear.  


Damn, this website is getting worse daily.
User currently onlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6088 posts, RR: 29
Reply 2, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5740 times:
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The Caravelle is gone from the sky. So is the CV 880 and 990.

Quoting goblin211 (Thread starter):
will we ever really see the 744s in VCV or wherever?

There is some already there.



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5740 times:

After 9/11, a number of older a/c were phased out at major airlines especially older 747's, 737's and most remaining 727's due to sharply lower demand, economic necessity, and taking advantage of the situation. We have more recently seen the L-1011 pretty much gone from pax airlines as well as the remaining DC-8's, DC-9's, A-300's from pax and freight use but for a few owners as they reach the end of their useful lives, maker support reduced or have become fuel hogs, In the end, it is always about the money and if an aircraft cannot make enough revenue to support it's costs, then it will pretty much disappear from common use.

User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4313 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5701 times:

I am also not sure what point you try to make.
I keep track of current fleets for airlinerlist.com and almost all aircraft will eventually disappear.
You mention 727s... Only 10 years ago most major US airlines still had sizeable fleets. Now only a dozen still fly passengers (Aerosur, Iran Air, Iran Aseman, Ariana). Cargo aircraft survive longer, because they make fewer hours, the economics are better, as the purchase price is low compared to the operational costs. About 250 Boeing 727s are still flying. Even here, FedEx is phasing them out. Maybe in 15 years no more 727s are operational.
The DC-9 will follow the same track. Delta and a few Venezolan and African airlines fly passengers, a few more freight but numbers are a shadow of 10 years ago when about 700 DC-9s were still flying.

Some planetypes which don't fly anymore at all: Comet, Caravelle, Concorde, Trident, Tu-104, Tu-124, Tu-144, Ilyushin 14, Viscount, Britannia, CL-44, Vanguard, HP Herald, Stratocruiser, Boeing 720, Fairchild built F-27/FH-227, Convair 880/990, Martin 404
Some planetypes which only fly with preservation groups or for flightshow presentations: Lockheed Constellation, Ju-52, Ford Trimotor, DH Heron, DH Dove
Some planetypes which have between a single one and a fifth of the production run still flying, some commercially but mostly cargo or military nowadays: DC-3, DC-4, DC-6, DC-7, Curtiss Commando, Boeing 707, 727, DC-8, DC-9, Fokker F-27, Fokker 28, Nord 262, Convair props, VC-10, VFW-614, Ilyushin 18, 62, 86, HS-748, NAMC YS-11, GAF Nomad, Lockheed Electra, Tristar etc



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineNavigator From Sweden, joined Jul 2001, 1207 posts, RR: 14
Reply 5, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 5322 times:

Quoting goblin211 (Thread starter):
I was browsing through the database of pictures at MIA and i saw a lot of Amerijet 727s and Centurion cargo MDs, etc. this got me thinking, will airlines ever really replace their outdated a/c? My mindset is, if Amerijet still keeps their 727s around then why would an airline such as DL replace their DC9s let's say? Yes i know their getting outdated and will eventually need to be replaced but there are so many old a/c from the 80's or so flying for modern airlines today so what's the rush? and when DL let's say replaces their 744s with the 748i will we ever really see the 744s in VCV or wherever?

Technology advances and potentially all types go. But there will always be museums or the kinds of "Buffalo Airways" or even less wealthy airlines like Delta where older airframes survive longer than expected  



747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25117 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4470 times:

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 4):
Some planetypes which don't fly anymore at all: Comet, Caravelle, Concorde, Trident, Tu-104, Tu-124, Tu-144, Ilyushin 14, Viscount, Britannia, CL-44, Vanguard, HP Herald, Stratocruiser, Boeing 720, Fairchild built F-27/FH-227, Convair 880/990, Martin 404

Don't forget the Dassault Mercure.  
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Photo © Michel Gilliand



User currently offlinen9801f From Samoa, joined Apr 2004, 332 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 3529 times:

Quoting goblin211 (Thread starter):
will airlines ever really replace their outdated a/c?

I'm gathering your point is that sometimes it seems like a "shell game", with airlines simply shuffling planes among themselves rather than airplanes being truly eliminated.

Given that there are still some DC-3's flying around, etc., it sort of seems like the old ones never truly go away.

The bottom line is that planes usually become economically outdated before they wear out. But passenger airplanes sometimes find a second life as lower-utilization cargo or charter planes because of their low purchase price (meaning you can afford to pay the bank interest on the purchase even when it sits around) and also because the operating costs are less important (since they sit a lot of the time, fuel economy isn't as important.) However eventually maintenance costs get very high, or else the next crop of "old" (but cheap and more efficient) airplanes moves down from passenger airlines.

So even if a few planes get a second life, in the end they all eventually meet the cutter and get recycled. Remember that the next time you drink a beverage from an aluminum can (!)


User currently offlineAirportugal310 From Palau, joined Apr 2004, 3608 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 3379 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 2):
The Caravelle is gone from the sky. So is the CV 880 and 990.

Too bad really....those specific a/c you mention were some nice aircraft.

The CV990, in particular, an "go green or go home" nightmare!



I sell airplanes and airplane accessories
User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3239 times:

Quoting Navigator (Reply 5):
less wealthy airlines like Delta

Say WHAT? Care to guess what their market cap and COH is?



Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (3 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2948 times:

Another factor for a model of aircraft to no longer be in service can be the failure of the manufacure, it's merger into other companies and over time, if a poor seller or as active models decline to very low numbers, that there is no economic benefits or profits to continue to support it. In some cases, like with the DC-3, other companies can take over the continuation of making parts to keep remaining a/c flying, but even then, they too will reach a point where new or rebuilt parts are no longer a profitable enterprise. Without support, parts, service, an aircraft really cannot continue to fly.

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