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Bombardier Expects 300 Orders For CSeries By EIS  
User currently offlineCRJ900X From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 197 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4954 times:

According to Gary Scott, Bombardier's Commercial Aircraft president, they expect to have further orders this year and around 300 orders when the CSeries enters service.

Source: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ast-300-cseries-orders-by-eis.html

I believe that we will see a Qatar Airways order as well as a Chinese order along with possibly a Gulf Air order and another North American airline (Delta?) as some of the orders for the upcoming year.

Any other thoughts about operators possibly ordering this jet? Could we also possibly see a major lessor ordering some of these?

Cheers,
CRJ900X

24 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 1, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4912 times:

I am surprised by the following from the linked article in OP:

Quote:
But Scott says adamantly that Bombardier has no intention of adding a CS500 to the family. Technically, Bombardier could stretch the CSeries, but the manufacturer is "leaving above 150 [seats] to Boeing and Airbus", says Scott, adding: "They can fight it out and they can take on China and Russia and so many others that want to go into that market segment. We just have no interest in that."


User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8977 posts, RR: 39
Reply 2, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4873 times:

What's with all these manufacturers going out and putting such numbers out there? Free publicity?

You have to wonder why put this added pressure on yourself.



"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2559 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4844 times:

I could see more from LH for themselves and SN. India could be a good option too, particularly 9W. Im sure SK could use them too, but they need some money first which rules them out within the time frame. Otherwise I think you have it covered.

I dont think we will see an order from AC any time soon, though eventually it may work for them.

WS could jump on board if Boeing do decide to go with a 180+ pax 797 only.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 4, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4761 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 3):
WS could jump on board if Boeing do decide to go with a 180+ pax 797 only.

Same would be likely for WN.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 3):
India could be a good option too, particularly 9W.

Not sure about 9W, but I can see Spicejet ordering some in the future. Spicejet which has a seat pitch of 29" on its 738(189 Y seats) could configure the CS300 for 145 seats.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8772 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4684 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
We just have no interest in that."

That is very surprising. It seems like a 150 seat version would please a lot of buyers. Maybe they have calculated that, if the announce a 150 seater, Boeing would benchmark that and then declare war.

The China comment is also strange. I thought it was the super RJ segment that is way over subscribed.


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 6, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4626 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 5):
It seems like a 150 seat version would please a lot of buyers. Maybe they have calculated that, if the announce a 150 seater, Boeing would benchmark that and then declare war.

This crossed my mind too. However, Boeing would need a 5-abreast platform to effectively take on CS500 if the 797 platform is going to be built to span 180-220 seat category.

I wish Boeing would do a JV with BBD on Cseries that would cover the 110-150 seat category on an efficient 5-abreast platform, and use the 797 platform to cover 170-180 to 220-230 seat category.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 7, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4560 times:

I think BBD is not unwise to take the CS500 off the table for now...they can always change their mind later. First things first; at least get the CS100 up and running, on time and on spec.

First flight shouldn't be much more than a year from now...not very long to wait to see if BBD can really pull this thing off. If they do, I don't think sales will be a problem. Get the first two models right and the CS500 will follow right behind.



What the...?
User currently offlinedavs5032 From United States of America, joined Sep 2010, 394 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4510 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 7):
I think BBD is not unwise to take the CS500 off the table for now...they can always change their mind later. First things first; at least get the CS100 up and running, on time and on spec.

First flight shouldn't be much more than a year from now...not very long to wait to see if BBD can really pull this thing off. If they do, I don't think sales will be a problem. Get the first two models right and the CS500 will follow right behind.

  

-The CS500 will happen, it's only a matter of when IMO. Whatever PR statements they make to the contrary now are just attempts at "flying under the radar" of A and B. (Although, if the 797 starts at the high capacity that's been rumored, Bombardier may not have concede the ~150 market so quickly, rather it would be theirs to gain as the MD80's aren't going to replace themselves.)


User currently offlineYXXMIKE From Canada, joined Apr 2008, 310 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4480 times:

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 8):

-The CS500 will happen, it's only a matter of when IMO. Whatever PR statements they make to the contrary now are just attempts at "flying under the radar" of A and B. (Although, if the 797 starts at the high capacity that's been rumored, Bombardier may not have concede the ~150 market so quickly, rather it would be theirs to gain as the MD80's aren't going to replace themselves.)

Yeah, I think keeping the old nose to the grind stone on the CS100 won't do them any harm. If FR where to come along with a spec sheet of their own and a potential larger order for a CS 5000 then who know's but for now I think this is a project which BBD is determined to come in on time and on budget for its initial customers which after the A380 and current 787 debacle then it's an excellent strategy.


User currently offlinecolumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4416 times:

Delta, Lufthansa, Qatar, United are my guess for the next orders


It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13549 posts, RR: 100
Reply 11, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 4349 times:
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I love the C-series concept and I'm optimistic on the type, but I have trouble believing 300 by EIS unless a *big* order is coming down the pipeline.

My rumor mill is optimistic on the C-series. But not a series whiff about a large order.

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 4):
Spicejet which has a seat pitch of 29" on its 738(189 Y seats) could configure the CS300 for 145 seats.

I could see Spicejet and the C300, but not by EIS.  
Quoting columba (Reply 10):

Delta, Lufthansa, Qatar, United are my guess for the next orders

Delta would be huge. They are looking at the C-series.... But I'm not holding my breath.

LH and QR are likely in my opinion.

UA I do not know the chances.

I do also think AA is a possibility.

U2 has promise, but not at EIS.

As I look at your list, it is US airline heavy. However, there is the concentration of airlines that needs to do a fleet replacement...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinecolumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4211 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
However, there is the concentration of airlines that needs to do a fleet replacement...

These are the airlines that publicly have stated interest in the CSeries.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 13, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4085 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
I love the C-series concept and I'm optimistic on the type, but I have trouble believing 300 by EIS unless a *big* order is coming down the pipeline.

I am convinced that the main thing holding back orders is the uncertainty of the project. The 787 burned a lot of fingers trying something, (actually almost everything), all new and it bit them in the butt.

BBD is doing much the same thing...everything about this plane is all new for them; new materials, systems, layout and engines...even shooting for a new market.

The 787 has rightly made airlines nervous about committing to an all new type. After all, if mighty Boeing screwed up this badly, how can teeny BBD pull it off?

I think one more order before first flight then if the damned thing works, 300 before EIS isn't out of the question.



What the...?
User currently offlineAesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 6956 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3873 times:

So, what kind of production numbers are they expecting ?

I just found an old article saying the CRJ line was planned to get to 14,5/month in 2003 (article from April 2001, before 9/11), I had no idea they could go that high.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 5):
The China comment is also strange. I thought it was the super RJ segment that is way over subscribed.

Yeah, where mass competition is is exactly around where the CS100 is ! Including Bombardier very own CRJ-1000 !



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 15, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3849 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 14):
So, what kind of production numbers are they expecting ?
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...d-production-rate-for-cseries.html

Quote:
Bombardier is targeting a production rate of 20 aircraft per month for its CSeries aircraft by 2016 as the airframer readies to enlarge the Mirabel site dedicated to producing the aircaft.



What the...?
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 931 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3847 times:

From the article: "Rest assured that we will add significantly to our current numbers this year and we will begin to add to these numbers soon."

Well, they better do so or else they will lose credibility again. Last year after a disappointing Farnborough Airshow, Gary Scott said, "look forward to orders by the end of the year." Well that did not happen. He needs to rack up 210 more orders to bring it to 300. I think they will make some announcements at Paris this year.

This whole thing about comparing the CSeries orders to the B737 and A320 is a stretch. The B737 was plagued by ALPA who wanted it to be crewed by three (i.e. an observer). It took several years to resolve the issue. The DC-9 got around the issue, was in production, and they were killing the B737 sales efforts, and while at it, the 737 was still in development. One also has to look at aviation decades ago and scale demand for the different era's. Comparing the initial order book of the 737 in the 1960's or even the A320 in the 1980's is like comparing the demand for cars then versus today.

What is really worrisome right now is the CRJ line. They have pretty much produced almost everything in their backlog by now except for the remaining CRJ1000s. The Q400 orders are also having a rough time against ATR. They need big orders for the Q and CRJ Series to keep their current levels of production rates.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2776 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3358 times:

Perhaps as more detailed performance specs start to be made available to the airlines, and most importantly some real test data from the GTF in its final configuration, which is the number one risk element of the program, interested airlines might stop hesitating and sign up...

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
Technically, Bombardier could stretch the CSeries, but the manufacturer is "leaving above 150 [seats] to Boeing and Airbus", says Scott, adding: "They can fight it out and they can take on China and Russia and so many others that want to go into that market segment. We just have no interest in that."

I think this is purely a PR statement to distract attention and not create any additional pressure on BBD, they have enough on their hands for now to start thinking about another variant.

The first part reveals it all: a CS500 is technically possible, so IMO it will happen ifff they get the CS100 + CS300 right first.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13549 posts, RR: 100
Reply 18, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3221 times:
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Quoting r2rho (Reply 17):
and most importantly some real test data from the GTF in its final configuration, which is the number one risk element of the program

As much as I am excited about the C-series, it has two areas of risk.

1) The GTF as noted. (Fuel burn and maintenance costs)
2) The CFRP wing.

I'm very curious as to this year's Paris air show. It looks like QR will buy a few Cseries.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 16):
They have pretty much produced almost everything in their backlog by now except for the remaining CRJ1000s.

IMHO, the only CRJ that has a market niche is the CRJ1000 and, to a lesser extent the CRJ700. In my opinion, the CRJ700 market was oversold due to scope clauses. With the MRJ, Superjet, and improving E-series, I see little hope for the CRJ unless the CRJ1000 is upgraded to the Tech-X.

More likely, Bombardier must transition to making the C-series. While I'd love to see the Q-series stay in production, I could see Mirabel becoming a dedicated C-series plant. I'm not sure if that is a smilie or sad faced comment...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinerikkus67 From Canada, joined Jun 2000, 1684 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 3070 times:

Lightsaber...

I think it can be assumed that the CRJ1000 is a stop-gap until the C-Series is completely up and running. I can see the Q series continue on, but I think long term Bombardier needs to adress the needs for a new turboprop that hits the 30-50 seat range.

Like the original 737, I am sure the C-Series will hit it's stride. In the North American market we all know there is a need for an MD replacement coming up sooner, rather than later. Whether that will equate to a one to one replacement, that is yet to be seen.



AC.WA.CP.DL.RW.CO.WG.WJ.WN.KI.FL.SK.ACL.UA.US.F9
User currently offlineDash9 From Canada, joined Nov 2008, 212 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2972 times:

Even if the Q and the CRJ originated in two different companies (DHC and canadair), they have a similar 4-abreast cross-section. The CRJ cross-section has also been reused or at least inspired a lot the Global bizjet family.

Now with the C coming down the pipeline, BBD will have a brand new 5-abreast fuselage. I wonder if future derivative could be an eventual large 5-abreast turboprop (cockpit commonality with the C? TP400-D6 engine?) or a large ultra long-range bizjet? The Cseries could become the foundation of three aircraft families (commercial jet, commercial turboprop, bizjet) that span the main divisions of BBD aerospace. Just speculating of course.

Only missing aircraft would be a new water-bomber derivative and voilà! the whole portfolio ire renewed  
(PS the last is humor)

-Dash9


User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6428 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2927 times:

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 20):
Only missing aircraft would be a new water-bomber derivative and voilà! the whole portfolio ire renewed
(PS the last is humor)

On floats?    You wacky Canucks have been known to put just about any aircraft you make on a pair of pontoons  



Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 731 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 2742 times:

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 20):
or a large ultra long-range bizjet?

A business jet version of the Cseries is already planned (but not launched).

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ardier-will-build-vip-cseries.html

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
could see Spicejet and the C300, but not by EIS.  
Quoting columba (Reply 10):

Delta, Lufthansa, Qatar, United are my guess for the next orders

Delta would be huge. They are looking at the C-series.... But I'm not holding my breath.

LH and QR are likely in my opinion.

UA I do not know the chances.

I do also think AA is a possibility.

U2 has promise, but not at EIS.

Don't forget SAS

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-is-frontrunner-for-sas-order.html

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):
I could see Mirabel becoming a dedicated C-series plant.

Some rumors in Montreal say that Bombardier could assemble (FAL) and finish (interiors completion) the Global 7000/8000 at Mirabel plant.



[Edited 2011-03-16 19:55:24]

User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 23, posted (3 years 9 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 2638 times:

Airinsight has an interesting interview with Gary Scott, president of Bombardier, about the CSeries production, timetable and market segment;

http://airinsight.com/?p=1072



What the...?
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13549 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2495 times:
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I see some future for the CRJ1000 as it is a lower cost airframe. However... if the C100 is as good as I think it is... nevermind.

Quoting queb (Reply 22):
Don't forget SAS

I missed that. Thank you. Is SAS looking at 55 C-series or is 55 planes the upper bound that includes other types?

If SAS and QR both place orders for the C-series at Paris, it would be a HUGE boost for the type.

QR has set the Paris airshow as the deadline:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ier-cseries-by-paris-air-show.html

I would love to know all the airlines Bombardier is in serious negotiations. For small airlines, now is the time to order with options.   The CEO claims: "The company has been in serious talks with "a handful" of potential buyers." (might require a subscription):
Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 19):
I think it can be assumed that the CRJ1000 is a stop-gap until the C-Series is completely up and running. I can see the Q series continue on, but I think long term Bombardier needs to adress the needs for a new turboprop that hits the 30-50 seat range.
Quoting queb (Reply 22):
A business jet version of the Cseries is already planned (but not launched).

Interesting. I suspect Bombardier will wait a few years. I agree with your link that Bombardier should not distract itself from the launch of the C100 and C300. Only after 'talent is freed up' should they begin work on a business jet version.

Lightsaber


Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
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