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737 Likely To Be Re-engined - Avitas Opinion  
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 12414 times:

From flightglobal:

"Boeing will likely announce a re-engined 737 at the Paris air show, predicts Avitas's senior vice president Adam Pilarski, despite strong flirtations with an all-new aircraft aimed for a 2019-2020 entry into service.

Pilarski concludes that the strategic rationale for installing new CFM Leap-X or Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engines under the wings of the 737 outweighs building an all-new aircraft to replace the type."

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...737-re-engine-announcement-in.html

On its website, AVITAS describes itself:

"AVITAS is the leading aircraft expert advisor to airlines, financial institutions, maintenance facilities, manufacturers, government agencies and law firms. "

So, is a clean sheet 737 replacement currently the preferred option inside Boeing? Perhaps it is but the business case cannot be established to go down this route rather than taking the lower cost, lower risk re-engine route.

62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 48
Reply 1, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 12397 times:

Perhaps Boeing will announce both a 737NEO and 797(180-220 seats) at Paris.

User currently onlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3507 posts, RR: 27
Reply 2, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 12190 times:
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that could make sense since they say that the 737 line will continue for 20 more years,, and the 797 fills the 757 space...

User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 3, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 11994 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
Perhaps Boeing will announce both a 737NEO and 797(180-220 seats) at Paris.

That was something I was pondering after reading the various comments and rumors about the future of the 737. I don't give it any more or less credence than any other option, but it just might be the most interesting. It could also offer a 1-2 punch to the competition (and to Boeing's bank account over the next 10 years).

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinecosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 649 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 11985 times:

I started an earlier thread titled "Boeing New Light Twin" but the thread was removed.

In the post, I mentioned that a FlightBlogger interview mentioned that Boeing CEO said the New Light Twin (aka 797?) will not be a son of 787, will be 2x3x2 and the 737 will be produced for another 15-20 years. I therefore suggested that a 737NEO is much more likely and the NLT may incorporate some BWB features.

I have no idea why the thread was deleted.


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 11962 times:

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 4):
I have no idea why the thread was deleted.

This one might go the same way, as we already have a couple of 797-related threads. Yours wasn't bad, it just probably could have been more appropriately added to one of the existing ones. This will probably go the same path.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4489 posts, RR: 21
Reply 6, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 11950 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 3):
That was something I was pondering after reading the various comments and rumors about the future of the 737. I don't give it any more or less credence than any other option, but it just might be the most interesting. It could also offer a 1-2 punch to the competition (and to Boeing's bank account over the next 10 years).

I was also thinking along these lines. It seems quite plausible and the least risky move at the moment.



I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 7, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 11905 times:

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 6):
the least risky move at the moment.

Least risky in a sense, but much more expensive. However, it makes a lot of sense to keep a 737NEO if you go bigger on the 797, because otherwise you run the risk of losing loyal customers like WN, FR, etc. Between them they could easily take 500-1000 copies of a 737NEO over the lifetime of the program, giving them a strong basis for moving forward. If you consider that neither carrier would likely be looking as hard at a larger and more costly 797, you can figure that they aren't going to be cannibalizing too many sales between the programs.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 8, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 11854 times:
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Quoting kanban (Reply 2):
and the 797 fills the 757 space...

But would it?

In their publicity so far Boeing have quoted ranges near identical to the A32XNEO (c. 3 500Nm).
And 150-220 seats sounds like an A320NEO competitor, an A321NEO competitor and 1 larger variant - an "A322NEO" competitor.

Or for that matter a 738NEO competitor, a 739NEO competitor and 1 larger variant.

I'm not sure I see the point of re-engining the 737 AND having a new airframe that competes directly with the 737NEO over 2/3 of its range....

Rgds


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30908 posts, RR: 87
Reply 9, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 11773 times:
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Even in ER form, the 737-900 isn't exactly amazing. So I could see the 797 arriving in two flavors - a "797-1" around 200 seats (single-class) to replace the 737-900(ER)/757-200 and a "797-2" around 240 seats (single class) to replace the 757-300 / A300-600.

That would leave the 150-seat 737-700neo and 190-seat 737-800neo to anchor the bottom end of the range. The 737-800neo would also serve as the "value proposition" for airlines not wanting or not ready to go to the "797-1".

And a dual-track approach would protect them if indeed some amazing new technology looked to EIS in the early 2020's by allowing Boeing to stop development on the 797 while still having the 737neo.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 10, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 11686 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 8):
I'm not sure I see the point of re-engining the 737 AND having a new airframe that competes directly with the 737NEO over 2/3 of its range....

I agree. I think it's one or the other...not both...and I still think they will re-engine. Unless they have something in their all new bag that can beat the 320NEO by 10% on fuel burn, then there won't be enough of an advantage for Boeing to be able to capture any more market share than they would with a re-engined 737.

If you can't get more, that's 8ish billion bucks down the tubes.



What the...?
User currently offlineburkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 11649 times:

Management fights in public are a real alarm sight for the inner state of a company, and these contradicting public announcements will not increase trust into anything they say. If they do not find a common basis what to say and what not, who would put his airlines faith into such a chaotic gang?

User currently offlineodwyerpw From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 853 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 11563 times:

I believe they will re-engine as well. That will be the decision taken at Paris. 797 announcements are still a long way off. But I think the Re-engine effort will be geared soley at the 737-800 & 737-900. Furthermore, they will be dubbed 737-800LR, 737-900LR. They will have to keep the winglets, as P-8 blended edges won't fit into the gates. Sky interior will become standard.

Solely my opinion, but I believe the two narrow body options are:
1. Re-engined 737
2. New 797

While, the narrow twin-aisle option is:
1. 797 2X2X2 or 2X3X2

If they go for the re-engine, then 797 becomes a narrow twin aisle a few years from now. Again this is just my opinion.



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlinen1786b From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 559 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 11532 times:

Quoting burkhard (Reply 11):
Management fights in public are a real alarm sight for the inner state of a company, and these contradicting public announcements will not increase trust into anything they say. If they do not find a common basis what to say and what not, who would put his airlines faith into such a chaotic gang?

I was wondering if you made the same comment about airlines faith in such a stable and focused gang of Forgerard, Streiff, Leahy, Humbert, Lagardare and Enders? Think back a few years to the gestation period of the A350. How many "versions" of the A350 were announced? Heck even one had been launched before replaced.

This is all part of the decision-making process.....that is slowly being revealed to the public.


User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 11398 times:

737NEO would be a waste of time and money. If Boeing wants to kill A320NEO - as they have been saying in their PR mantra - they better offer a new frame that covers 150 - 220 seats in two class configuration with a single, all-new aircraft.

Edit: Also, keep in mind that the article does not reflect Boeing's position, but Avitas. Boeing keeps claiming their customers - at least the majority of them - want all-new aircraft, not another warm-over of the 737.

The old lady needs to be put to rest.

[Edited 2011-03-15 00:46:40]


STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 15, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 11123 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 14):
The old lady needs to be put to rest.

The old lady sold 500 units last year. If it can compete with the 320 now, it could compete with new engines.



What the...?
User currently offlineparapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1566 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 11018 times:

If you have not already, you may wish to give this piece a glance.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...s-gear-up-for-2025-and-beyond.html

Boeing real issue (I believe) are the huge developments going on in the engine dep't for EIS 2020-2025. It is very difficult for them. On one hand they do (probably) need to respond to the raft of new compeditors coming onto the market.But at the same time not to paint themselves into a corner.

Personally I have no faith in the man in charge.(He who masterminded the 787 - perhaps "de management" have handed him the poisoned chalace as a way of saying thanks!).

It is true that there have been many treads covering this area,but it is "the big one".This is the bread and butter market.They have to be in it.Boeing are making weekly releases about it so it is understandable that people react to it.

Clearly (from attached article) the 2 engines we see being developed now are just a beginning. P&W are gong for a much more advanced gearing system for the third varient of the GTF.They now talk of much higher by pass ratio's to com in future. (And why not if it works?). GE are overtly looking at OR ,they have also shown a contra rotating fan system too.

I don't know whether the aircraft illustrated in the article is a Boeing one or not.But it is typical of the sort of directions that may come next (a semi lifting ovoid body and super high aspect ratio wings - even FSW?) But most noteably the engines- super high by pass and.. - At the back!

If I were Boeing? I would go NEO- as long as it keeps them in the game (50% share or there about) for the next 10 years. You don't bet the farm in the dark do you?


User currently offlineyendig From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 10942 times:
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Quoting parapente (Reply 16):
I don't know whether the aircraft illustrated in the article is a Boeing one or not

Looks like it has NASA logos on the tail and is credited to NASA / Aurora Flight Sciences


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6897 posts, RR: 46
Reply 18, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 10935 times:

I am of the impression that Boeing does not have the resources to do a new aircraft, keep up with the 787 and 748, AND do a re-engine of the 737 (to say nothing of updating the 777.) This is just Avitas's wet dream. Boeing management has been saying repeatedly that they are going for a new aircraft; that means no 737NEO. They will only go that route if they decide against the new aircraft, which at this point I see as very doubtful.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlinebtblue From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 578 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 10899 times:

I believe Boeing will re-engine the 737 unless they've developed some new weight saving technology they can implement to the fleet within the coming few years, which I doubt.

People have speculated on other threads as to the demise of the 737. That's not going to happen - yet. A re-engining programme while costly will breathe a little more life into the old girl until newer, and yet more advanced propulsion systems come into play. Lets not forget the continuing oil issues and engine manufacturers are working on research and design for more efficent engines... and Boeing just are not going to let Airbus take all the glory here...

Also, why cede the market to Airbus when you can play them at their own game AND trump them with the introduction of the 797 that will deal with the A321NEO and 757 & 767/2 market as mentioned here. Airbus are up to their eyes in the development of the A350 to even think about launching a new airliner. Keep it simple, re-engine for now.



146/2/3 737/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 A320 1/2/18/19/21 DC9/40/50 DC10/30 A300/6 A330/2/3 A340/3/6 A380 757/2/3 747/4 767/3/4 787 77
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6897 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10699 times:

Quoting btblue (Reply 19):

Also, why cede the market to Airbus when you can play them at their own game AND trump them with the introduction of the 797 that will deal with the A321NEO and 757 & 767/2 market as mentioned here. Airbus are up to their eyes in the development of the A350 to even think about launching a new airliner.

And Boeing isn't????



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10642 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 15):
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 14):
The old lady needs to be put to rest.

The old lady sold 500 units last year. If it can compete with the 320 now, it could compete with new engines.

So? It's still old lady. The classic 737s also were selling after A320 was announced in early 1980s. Eventually, the botox and lifting job will stop being sufficient to compete with A320NEO, since Airbus is already studying their own all-new narrowbody for EIS after 2025. Boeing will have to design the all-new airplane and they know it.

[Edited 2011-03-15 06:28:55]


STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinemorrisond From Canada, joined Jan 2010, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10538 times:

Everybody's assuming that Boeing will make big changes to the 737 if they re-engine it. However what they could simply do is don't change the Fan diameter at all, just replace the engines and leave everything exactly as is. Aero and systems wouldn't change at all meaning that it would be very easy to certify. Make the engine makers use the same connections as the existing 737 as well, giving them a potential upgrade market.

The benefit of this is that it ties up very few resources at Boeing, and I would guess you would get at least half the improvement of going full NEO and optimizing for that.

That gives Boeing the engineering resources to do the 797.

They could also do the same thing with the 777. Just have GE make the GE90-115 more efficient by adapting GENX technologies and leave everything else as is, until you have time to properly redo it after 797.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 23, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 10365 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 21):

So? It's still old lady. The classic 737s also were selling after A320 was announced in early 1980s. Eventually, the botox and lifting job will stop being sufficient to compete with A320NEO, since Airbus is already studying their own all-new narrowbody for EIS after 2025. Boeing will have to design the all-new airplane and they know it.

So? It still competes head to head with the 320 and there is no evidence that a re-engined 737 couldn't compete with the NEO. Boeing has said for years a new plane will be needed eventually. They are in the process of deciding if that time is now.



What the...?
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7138 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (3 years 5 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 10316 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 1):
Perhaps Boeing will announce both a 737NEO and 797(180-220 seats) at Paris.
Quoting odwyerpw (Reply 12):
Solely my opinion, but I believe the two narrow body options are:
1. Re-engined 737
2. New 797

While, the narrow twin-aisle option is:
1. 797 2X2X2 or 2X3X2

I now think the 797 is a red herring intended to generate discussion. I spoke to some airline industry people who would be in a decision making role for acquisition and not a single one was interested in a twin aisle 200 seat airplane. Most mocked it as uneconomical as I do.


25 btblue : Well, the 787 is developed and will enter service in the coming months, so it is practiacally out the door but I know it will always be improved etc.
26 Aesma : A 737neo wouldn't surprise me in the least, as I said several times the ATW article looked like a disinformation campaign to me. That would probably m
27 Post contains images btblue :
28 Post contains links BlueSky1976 : It could, but it would not leapfrog the A320NEO the way Boeing would like it to, no matter what their PR department is saying. Some food for thought
29 SEPilot : They still have the 789 to get out, and there is talk of the 7810. And while it is hopeful that they have learned a lot of lessons, one of them is no
30 Post contains images TSS : Nor do I. I get the impression that the contradicting public announcements are just a smoke screen for what's really going on, and maybe a test to ga
31 parapente : Reply 30 and previous comment. Quoting enilria (Reply 24): I now think the 797 is a red herring intended to generate discussion. I spoke to some airli
32 manfredj : If there was a large and noticeable difference in performance/efficiency between the currenty 737 and 320, I could see your point. Eventually, the 73
33 Post contains links kanban : from The Seattle Timmes http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...echnology/2014461618_boeing11.html "The new jet family will skew larger than the single
34 Stitch : But the only engine technology that could not be adapted to a 797 with underwing mounted engines would be Open Rotor. And with some reports saying an
35 Post contains images ER757 : No conflicting announcements and public management fights - take a look at the OP again. This wasn't Boeing saying this, it was a consulting firm. I'
36 art : Yes, Boeing and Airbus seem content with a 50/50 split in the narrowbody market. Why would they not be content with a 50/50 split in a re-engined nar
37 ikramerica : This is what I said in the other thread: 737 will be reengined for 73G and 738 only. 797 will fill market that has existed and will exist for 739/A321
38 LAXDESI : If I am reading this correctly, 797 will cover the range from B739 to A332. I would think a single aisle is out of the question to span this range. D
39 ATA L1011 : May be a good 757-300 single class replacement but not so much on the A300-600, that would be a huge single class loss in capacity. 375 max vs 240 so
40 Post contains links n1786b : Interesting that everybody has overlooked this quote: The first critical decision for Boeing is how big the plane will be. Piasecki said three configu
41 ikramerica : Boeing recently said they are looking at the "all new light twin" with a 2-3-2. You can't do 150 seats with that. But also, there is just no return o
42 Stitch : So perhaps: A single-aisle of 34m, 40m and 46m lengths giving single-class capacity of 150, 190, and 220. This would be a direct replacement for the
43 LAXDESI : If Boeing is going to do a twin aisle, it would be better to go with 7-abreast as opposed to 6 abreast from an efficiency angle(better seat/cabin flo
44 qfa787380 : No way will Boeing do a 737Neo and 797. They have strongly indicated that the Neo is most likely not the path for them and an all new 737 replacement
45 Post contains images mffoda : Only someone from Australia could get away with calling 12 hours REGIONAL! Cheers
46 Post contains links wingman : No joke man, that's SF to LHR or AMS. Australia and NZ are just too far from everywhere. To put it in perspective: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8Vo
47 ikramerica : There is conflicting information about this. Would the 797 replace ALL 737s? Then it can't replace the 757 or 763 effectively. But if it's sized larg
48 Post contains images astuteman : Or call the A3510 "a good regional 10-12 hour plane but not a serious 77W long-haul challenger "....... 8 000 NM in 10-12 hours..... Rgds
49 qfa787380 : So, what do you call the 350-1000? Please expand, because there is lots of industry evidence it is underpowered and has no chance of reaching 8,000nm
50 SEPilot : Just as the A333 is not a serious 772 competitor. The 772 carries more farther, but if you don't need its range the A333 is more economical. I suspec
51 Post contains links JoeCanuck : The GTF seems to be getting all the press on the new engine front so LeapX sometimes seems to be forgotten. Jean-Paul Ebanga, president of CFM speaks
52 Post contains links KarlB737 : Courtesy: Air Transport World Boeing 737 Replacement Will Include 757-Size Offering http://atwonline.com/aircraft-engine...-will-include-757-size-offe
53 Stitch : Could Boeing be doing both a 737neo and the 797? A 737-700neo would keep them in the game in the 150-seat market. A 737-800neo would become the "valu
54 LAXDESI : A JV with BBD on Cseries will cover the 110-130 seat market, and enable Boeing to cover a large span from 110 to 250 seats.
55 odwyerpw : Airliners.net Member quotes Air Transport World quoting S.U.D. saying "A 737 replacement would feature a plane with 757 like capacity > 200". Funny
56 kanban : Stitch, I think the deal here is that the 737 line will continue for many more years mainly as a P-8 and derivatives line, however Boeing has said th
57 Post contains images ikramerica : The 739ER is not 757 sized. It's smaller than the 200, let alone the 300. I'm with Stitch. Actually, since I offered the idea first, Stitch is now in
58 slowroll : Couldn't there be a 717NEO? How would the economics of a 717NEO (or more precisely, a 717NEO stretched to carry 130-150 passengers) compare to the 73G
59 Stitch : Boeing did pitch a larger 717-300, but it did not gain sufficient interest to be launched and the entire family was terminated. That being said, the
60 JoeCanuck : Do any 717 jigs exist anywhere?
61 Post contains images Stitch : I imagine they were scrapped when McD Commercial's plant in Long Beach was sold and demolished. Rather then resurrect the 717 directly, I would think
62 drgmobile : I have often wondered if Boeing has ever considered buying Bombardier Aerospace, or more likely just the C-Series program, and coupling the work done
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