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OAG Changes 3/18/2011:AS/CO/DL/NK/TA/US  
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9492 times:

Due to recurring typos by me, I have fully automated this report. That required some changes. Now I show each month separately. It goes out 9 months from the next month.


How to read:
-This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).
-This report uses total operations over a week, so non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. Daily service is generally rounded up to the next whole number, but if the service is one or two flights per day the report may show a decimal approximation of the service level. For example, 0.8 would mean five flights per week.
-The code listed is the marketing code. Clearly there are a lot of regional operators, but that is too complicated for this report.
-In most cases only one direction is shown with the hub service shown together.
-Changes are shown for each month separately. Since the report goes out 9 months, a change which is not shown for the full 9 months does not take place in the months not shown.
-Flights shown are intended to represent daily flights or fractions thereof.
-DL XXX-YYY 4>4 This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear. I will look to change the automation to eliminate these in the future, but as of now we will have to live with them.


9K ACK-BOS SEP 17>12 OCT 17>13
9K ACK-EWB SEP 10>6 OCT 10>7
9K ACK-HPN SEP 3>1.1 OCT 3>1.0
9K BOS-MVY SEP 15>11 OCT 15>12
9K BOS-PVC SEP 13>9 OCT 13>10
9K BOS-RKD OCT 5>4
9K EWB-MVY SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4

AA SJU-DOM SEP 1.0>1.1

AB LAX-DUS AUG 0.4>0.6 SEP 0.4>0.6
AB RSW-DUS AUG 0.4>0.6
AB SFO-DUS AUG 0.3>0.4 SEP 0.3>0.4

AF ATL-CDG APR 3>2 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 DL made the same move

AM ORD-GDL APR 0.7>1.0
AM SAT-MEX APR 2>3

AS ACV-LAX APR 1.0>0.5 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0
AS ACV-RDD APR 1.0>0.5 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0
AS SEA-ANC MAY 16>17
AS BLI-LAS MAY 1.6>1.0
AS LAX-LAP APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.4
AS LAX-LTO APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.6
AS LAX-RDD APR 1.0>0.5 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0
AS SEA-PDX APR 22>21 MAY 22>21
AS PDX-SMF APR 5>4 MAY 5>4

AT JFK-CMN APR 1.2>1.1 MAY 1.2>1.0

B6 JFK-SXM MAY 1.1>1.0

BR LAX-TPE JUL 3>3 AUG 3>3

CO IAH-ABQ JUL 6>4 AUG 6>4
CO EWR-ATL JUL 7>3 AUG 7>4
CO IAH-ATL JUL 10>8 AUG 10>8
CO IAH-BTR JUN 10>9
CO CLE-MSY AUG 0.9>0.5
CO EWR-CLT JUL 6>5
CO IAH-CLT JUL 8>6 AUG 8>6
CO EWR-CMH JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
CO IAH-COS JUL 5>1.8 AUG 5>3
CO IAH-CVG JUL 5>4
CO EWR-DCA JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
CO IAH-DFW JUL 9>7 AUG 9>8
CO EWR-DTW JUL 6>4 AUG 6>4
CO IAH-ELP JUL 7>5 AUG 6>5
CO EWR-ANU AUG 0.6>0.5
CO EWR-IND JUL 6>4 AUG 6>4
CO EWR-JAX JUL 4>1.4 AUG 4>1.9
CO EWR-MBJ AUG 0.9>0.8
CO EWR-MSP JUL 6>1.8 AUG 6>3
CO EWR-PIT JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
CO EWR-POP AUG 0.9>0.5
CO EWR-RDU JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
CO EWR-SDQ AUG 1.9>1.7
CO EWR-SJD JUL 0.5>0.6
CO EWR-STL JUL 7>6
CO EWR-STR JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0.1
CO EWR-YUL JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
CO EWR-YVR JUL 0.8>1.0
CO EWR-YYT JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.9>0
CO GUM-NRT JUL 3>2 AUG 3>3
CO IAD-CDG JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0.1
CO IAH-BON JUL 0.5>0.3 AUG 0.3>0.2
CO IAH-CZM AUG 1.9>1.2
CO IAH-DGO AUG 0.6>0.4
CO IAH-GCM AUG 0.9>0.5
CO IAH-JAX MAY 6>5
CO IAH-MBJ AUG 0.9>0.5
CO IAH-MCI JUL 10>9
CO IAH-MFE JUL 6>7
CO IAH-MGA AUG 1.9>1.5
CO IAH-MKE JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
CO IAH-MSP JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
CO IAH-MZT AUG 1.3>0.9
CO IAH-NAS AUG 0.9>0.5
CO IAH-OKC JUL 9>7 AUG 9>7
CO IAH-OMA JUL 6>3 AUG 6>4
CO IAH-PHX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>6
CO IAH-PIT JUL 5>3 AUG 5>4
CO IAH-PVR JUL 4>3 AUG 4>2.0
CO IAH-RDU JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
CO IAH-RTB AUG 0.7>0.5
CO IAH-SAL JUL 3>3
CO IAH-SJD AUG 4>4
CO IAH-SLC JUL 3>2 AUG 3>3
CO IAH-TAM JUL 1.2>1.3
CO IAH-TUS JUL 5>1.0 AUG 5>1.2
CO IAH-YVR JUL 3>3 AUG 3>3
CO IAH-YYZ JUL 4>1.0 AUG 4>1.3
CO IAH-ZIH AUG 0.9>0.7

DL ATL-DSM JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
DL ATL-MGM JUN 9>10 JUL 9>10 AUG 9>10 SEP 8>10 OCT 8>10 NOV 8>10
DL ATL-MLU JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL ATL-VPS JUN 11>12 JUL 11>12 AUG 11>12 SEP 11>12 OCT 11>12 NOV 11>12
DL DTW-MHT SEP 5>7 OCT 4>7
DL DTW-PWM SEP 5>5 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
DL DTW-SDF JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
DL FAR-MSP JUL 7>8
DL JFK-CAI JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-PSA JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>0.8
DL ATL-CDG JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>1.9
DL LGA-RDU JUL 5>6

MEM loses 10 roundtrips.   My guess is that this funds the F9 attack to be loaded later. Anybody still think MEM is not in trouble? I spot checked a couple on delta.com and they do seem to be gone.
DL MEM-GPT APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>2.0 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
DL MEM-MGM APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.8 JUN 3>0.5 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0
DL MIA-MEM JUN 1.7>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.5>1.0
DL MEM-MLU APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>0.3 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
DL MEM-MOB JUL 3>1.8 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.9 OCT 3>1.8 NOV 3>1.9
DL MEM-VPS JUN 2>0.5 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0

F9 DEN-SAN MAY 6>5
F9 DEN-SJO MAY 1.0>0.7

FJ LAX-NAN NOV 0.6>0.4

JJ MCO-GRU JUL 1.0>1.9

K5 AST-PDX APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
K5 ONP-PDX APR 3>1.6 MAY 3>1.5 JUN 3>0.6 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0

NK DTW-TPA AUG 0.7>0.4
NK FLL-AXM NOV 0.4>0.3
NK FLL-CUN AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 1.1>1.0
NK FLL-MDE AUG 0.8>0.7
NK FLL-NAS AUG 1.5>1.0 SEP 1.7>1.6
NK FLL-SDQ SEP 1.4>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0 NOV 1.7>1.0
NK FLL-SJU NOV 4>3

OZ SEA-ICN OCT 0.7>1.0 NOV 0.7>1.0
OZ SPN-KIX MAY 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.5 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.2

TA MIA-GUA APR 1.0>1.9 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
TA MIA-MGA APR 1.0>1.6 MAY 1.0>1.6 JUN 1.4>2 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.2>1.7 OCT 1.0>1.6 NOV 1.0>2
TA MIA-SAP APR 1.0>1.9 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>1.9 JUL 1.0>1.8 AUG 1.0>1.9 SEP 1.0>1.8 OCT 1.0>1.9 NOV 1.0>2
TA MIA-TGU APR 1.0>1.5 MAY 1.0>1.6 JUN 1.0>1.6 JUL 1.0>1.5 AUG 1.0>1.6 SEP 1.0>1.6 OCT 1.0>1.6 NOV 1.0>2

TS FLL-YYZ APR 0.1>0

US BWI-LGA JUL 6>5
US CHO-LGA AUG 3>1.1
US IAD-LGA JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
US ITH-LGA JUL 3>1.4 AUG 3>0.7
US LGA-MDT JUL 3>1.7
US PHL-LGA JUL 16>14 AUG 18>17
US PHL-NAS MAY 1.3>1.0
US PHL-YHZ MAY 3>4

VS EWR-LHR MAY 2>1.9
VS IAD-LHR MAY 1.0>0.9
VS JFK-LHR MAY 3>3
VS LAX-LHR MAY 2>1.9

XL MIA-UIO MAY 0.9>0.7

95 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6630 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9436 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MEM loses 10 roundtrips. My guess is that this funds the F9 attack to be loaded later. Anybody still think MEM is not in trouble?

If you look you'll see DL adding flights to ATL-MOB, ATL-MLU and ATL-VPS. It's more just shifting traffic away from MEM to ATL.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL MEM-GPT APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>2.0 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
DL MEM-MGM APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.8 JUN 3>0.5 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0
DL MIA-MEM JUN 1.7>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.5>1.0
DL MEM-MLU APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>0.3 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
DL MEM-MOB JUL 3>1.8 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.9 OCT 3>1.8 NOV 3>1.9
DL MEM-VPS JUN 2>0.5 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0

It's amazing to see MEM-VPS go to nothing. Just a few years ago, they had 3x daily DC9 service to MEM. Now, it will be nothing. To be fair, the effect of WN in ECP has taken a toll on VPS traffic and I don't think Vision will save them.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US BWI-LGA JUL 6>5
US CHO-LGA AUG 3>1.1
US IAD-LGA JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
US ITH-LGA JUL 3>1.4 AUG 3>0.7
US LGA-MDT JUL 3>1.7
US PHL-LGA JUL 16>14 AUG 18>17

Preparing for a slot swap in the Fall maybe???


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 2, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9429 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MEM loses 10 roundtrips. My guess is that this funds the F9 attack to be loaded later. Anybody still think MEM is not in trouble? I spot checked a couple on delta.com and they do seem to be gone.

I'm too lazy to find my quote, but I said that this Summer would tell the tale of MEM. I guess we can all bemoan the price of jet fuel, but this wasn't done because of jet fuel. It was done because they needed these planes to fly Kansas City and Omaha routes up against F9. I'm sure the new routes will lose money and you can guess the routes they are dropping lost money, so what does that say about MEM going forward? Further, the Gulf markets are generally strong in the Summer so apparently they are so poor that they dropped them going into high season with just one month notice.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9399 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
If you look you'll see DL adding flights to ATL-MOB, ATL-MLU and ATL-VPS. It's more just shifting traffic away from MEM to ATL.

Not really. They added 3 and deleted 10. The other flights are headed to MCI/OMA.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
To be fair, the effect of WN in ECP has taken a toll on VPS traffic and I don't think Vision will save them.

What is odd for DL is that they are allowing Vision to operate with little competition. I don't think Vision will survive as a schedule airline in VPS, but it's surprising DL is not hitting them in the head.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
Preparing for a slot swap in the Fall maybe???

Good guess.


User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17659 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9346 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
NK FLL-AXM NOV 0.4>0.3
NK FLL-CUN AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 1.1>1.0
NK FLL-MDE AUG 0.8>0.7
NK FLL-NAS AUG 1.5>1.0 SEP 1.7>1.6
NK FLL-SDQ SEP 1.4>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0 NOV 1.7>1.0
NK FLL-SJU NOV 4>3

This is in addition to last week's int'l pulldown, yet they're flying LASLAX 5x/day. Just sayin.

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
I'm too lazy to find my quote, but I said that this Summer would tell the tale of MEM.

MEMSFO is out as well.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineRJNUT From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9294 times:

that saddens me about MEM as those were some real core markets from even back in the Southern Airways days. WOW, especially VPS, GPT and MOB!

User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3151 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9154 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS LAX-LAP APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.4
AS LAX-LTO APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.6

I assume these frequency reductions are seasonal, for Summer only? LAP and LTO are hotter than h*ll in the Summer. They are both wonderful places, but the last place I would go after May.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9147 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 4):
This is in addition to last week's int'l pulldown, yet they're flying LASLAX 5x/day. Just sayin.

I've been saying that FLL is souring in terms of NK performance. They are going to keep shrinking it for a while. They need a story to tell Wall Street to get their delayed IPO moving.

Quoting RJNUT (Reply 5):
that saddens me about MEM as those were some real core markets from even back in the Southern Airways days. WOW, especially VPS, GPT and MOB!

We should all be sad. We all hoped that cutting CVG would save MEM, but it's looking more and more like the attempt to escape that pile of bond debt in CVG has given CVG a stay of execution at MEM's expense.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 4):
Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
I'm too lazy to find my quote, but I said that this Summer would tell the tale of MEM.
MEMSFO is out as well.

Really? I thought it was just flying 3 or 4 days/week Summer only. That's basically gone, though.


User currently offlineFSDan From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 755 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9128 times:

Strange to see VPS, GPT, and MOB disappear from MEM as LNK, CID, and ATW come online...


SEA SFO SJC LAX ONT SAN DEN IAH DFW OMA FSD MSP MSN MKE ORD DTW CVG MEM JAN BHM RSW ATL CLT BWI PHL LGA JFK MEX LIM KEF
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17659 posts, RR: 46
Reply 9, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9086 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 7):
I've been saying that FLL is souring in terms of NK performance.

Why? Not that I disagree. B6 seems to outperform them on the LF/revenue/share side anywhere they compete.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 10, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9087 times:

Quoting FSDan (Reply 8):
Strange to see VPS, GPT, and MOB disappear from MEM as LNK, CID, and ATW come online...

Those flights only operate for 67 days. Not a big deal in the scheme of things.


User currently offlineDerridd From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 26 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 8896 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO IAH-OKC JUL 9>7 AUG 9>7
CO IAH-OMA JUL 6>3 AUG 6>4

They had Q400's loaded into OKC on one trip a day for July/August. Going to CRJ700's or more mainline? Because I don't see 7 145's covering the OKC route at all.


User currently offlinewn676 From Djibouti, joined Jun 2005, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 8697 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHL-YHZ MAY 3>4

Glad to see this, although it looks like it's Saturday only. Now here's the odd thing, on Saturdays in June I see they have a DCA-YHZ roundtrip in addition to the three flights from PHL...anyone know what that's about??



Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 8567 times:

In researching why MEM-ATW never appeared in my thread, I found that I missed one of the schedule load intervals...so here are some more changes. These are all route adds.

1X BKG-DAL MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7 NOV 0>0.7

AA DFW-MLM JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0
AA DFW-MZT JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0

AS PDX-BIL JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.9
AS PDX-MSO JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.9

B6 BOS-PUJ OCT 0>0.2
B6 BOS-STI OCT 0>0.2
B6 BOS-SXM OCT 0>0.2

CI ROR-TPE APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>0.6 JUN 0>0.6 JUL 0>0.6 AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5 NOV 0>0.6

DL EVV-MSP JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-ATW JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-CID JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-EVV JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-LNK JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0

F9 DEN-FSD JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-PVU JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 MCI-MSP JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>1.8 AUG 0>1.9 SEP 0>1.8 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>0.7
F9 MCI-SAT JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7

NK FLL-TLC JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3
NK LAS-LAX MAY 0>5 JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>5 SEP 0>5 OCT 0>5 NOV 0>5

UN MIA-DME JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0.1>0.3

US DCA-YHZ JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1

Y4 FAT-GDL APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.6 JUN 0>0.5 JUL 0>0.6 AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.6 NOV 0>0.5


User currently offlinejoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 939 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 8465 times:

Quoting Derridd (Reply 11):
CO IAH-OKC JUL 9>7 AUG 9>7
CO IAH-OMA JUL 6>3 AUG 6>4

They had Q400's loaded into OKC on one trip a day for July/August. Going to CRJ700's or more mainline? Because I don't see 7 145's covering the OKC route at all.

I'm not seeing the OMA reduction in OAG or continental.com yet.

As a note, OMA-IAH is operating CO 1x738 and 2x ERJ UA 3x CR7's in June so I'm assuming that's why it's showing a reduction in July and August as well. 2 or 3 of the frequencies will be UA CR7's.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6630 posts, RR: 24
Reply 15, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 8442 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
What is odd for DL is that they are allowing Vision to operate with little competition.

I think DL sees Vision as little real threat and no real need to respond. And with 12x daily flights on ATL-VPS, that's probably enough competition anyway.

Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
The other flights are headed to MCI/OMA.

What about the four extra seasonal MEM flights?

Quoting enilria (Reply 13):
DL EVV-MSP JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-ATW JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-CID JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-EVV JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
DL MEM-LNK JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0


User currently onlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6793 posts, RR: 32
Reply 16, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 8401 times:

Quoting Derridd (Reply 11):
CO IAH-OKC JUL 9>7 AUG 9>7
CO IAH-OMA JUL 6>3 AUG 6>4

They had Q400's loaded into OKC on one trip a day for July/August. Going to CRJ700's or more mainline? Because I don't see 7 145's covering the OKC route at all.

7 E145's are more than enough to cover CO's traffic on IAH-OKC; at most, they carry about 100 O&D passengers per day, each way. WN dominates that city pair.

Quoting enilria (Reply 7):
We all hoped that cutting CVG would save MEM, but it's looking more and more like the attempt to escape that pile of bond debt in CVG has given CVG a stay of execution at MEM's expense.

On the basis of fundamentals, CVG is a better market than MEM. That's not to say that MEM is unworkable, but even with higher costs at CVG, the overall revenue (and likely net profit) is going to be higher. MEM ought to have higher O&D traffic (based on regional affinity) to IAH and DFW than CVG does, but it doesn't. CVG has P&G, MEM has FedEx (great, except FedEx flies its own planes). To me, it's telling that there's a long wall on the bridge between Concourses B & C at MEM dedicated to the "Memphis Corporate Showcase" that has ONE company (AutoZone, I think) on it.

It's not a stretch to assume that Southwest will beef up MEM as part of the AirTran purchase, and that will be the end of the Delta hub.


User currently offlinediverdave From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 335 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 8319 times:

Thank you for the update.

Please double-check your automation, as it has obviously failed to pick up any cuts at CVG this week. 

David


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 18, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 8288 times:

Any guess why the Delta MCI/OMA expansion hasn't been loaded yet? One could speculate that they are waiting to see if Frontier pulls MCI-MSP, but that might completely wrong.

The additions showed up on the desktop timetable a week ago, and they are available on the DL site since this past weekend. Perhaps they are changing the schedule to reflect the addition of MCI-AUS and the pulling of MCI-CMH (if that's indeed what they are doing.)

For what it's worth, the currently-loaded schedule of MCI-BOS/CMH/MSY and OMA-DCA uses one E145, one CR7, and about 40% of an E175. If they do switch CMH to AUS, it will be interesting to see if they run 2x to AUS, or if perhaps they'll even take those two CMH frequencies and put them on SAT and AUS to further overlap Frontier.

E145
07:15 ….. 08:10 ….. cmh ….. mci
08:35 ….. 10:35 ….. mci ….. msy
10:50 ….. 13:05 ….. msy ….. mci
13:30 ….. 16:15 ….. mci ….. cmh
16:45 ….. 17:40 ….. cmh ….. mci
18:05 ….. 20:50 ….. mci ….. cmh


CR7
06:55 ….. 09:25 ….. bos ….. mci
09:55 ….. 13:50 ….. mci ….. bos
15:00 ….. 17:30 ….. bos ….. mci
18:00 ….. 21:55 ….. mci ….. bos


E175
07:00 ….. 10:30 ….. oma ….. dca
17:30 ….. 19:25 ….. dca ….. oma


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 19, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 8185 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 15):
Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
The other flights are headed to MCI/OMA.
What about the four extra seasonal MEM flights?

I hear you, but we know that those flights were announced before the F9 mess so it is likely they already had a plan to fund them. Additionally, being that those are only 62 day routes the timeframes don't really match the cuts they did this week.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
On the basis of fundamentals, CVG is a better market than MEM.

I would agree except that geographically I think MEM is better positioned for connections. I say that because CVG competes with ORD/DTW much more and MEM only competes with DFW. That's my opinion, but I think I could make that case. I do agree that the MEM business market is much weaker. The city is also poorer by most measures.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
CVG has P&G, MEM has FedEx (great, except FedEx flies its own planes).

Exactly...

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16):
It's not a stretch to assume that Southwest will beef up MEM as part of the AirTran purchase, and that will be the end of the Delta hub.

Exactly...

Quoting diverdave (Reply 17):
Please double-check your automation, as it has obviously failed to pick up any cuts at CVG this week.

LOL. They did axe CVG-EVV last week.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 18):
Any guess why the Delta MCI/OMA expansion hasn't been loaded yet? One could speculate that they are waiting to see if Frontier pulls MCI-MSP, but that might completely wrong.

I find it odd there is no press release either. I wonder if they are attempting to bluff F9 quietly to reduce the chances of DOJ irritation. You know you could put a bunch of flights in your online timetable as a lark with really no repercussions. I understand they are also for sale, so it's not quite that blatant, but I don't doubt they are waiting for an F9 reaction. We also don't know what is going on with RJET. DL has new leverage over RJET with the recent deal and I pointed out at the time that Hauenstein pointedly said in the quarterly call that the E170s would "come out of the Frontier network" as if that was a secondary benefit.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 18):
Perhaps they are changing the schedule to reflect the addition of MCI-AUS and the pulling of MCI-CMH (if that's indeed what they are doing.)

I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled CMH-MCI since it was a bit of a gaffe. There is such a thing as "selective distribution" now which allows an airline to release flights to only select channels of sale. That could be in use here. Why they would do that would revolve around their commitment to really flying the routes versus the exposure of the flights be more widely seen by regulators.


User currently offlineMSPNWA From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1965 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 8143 times:

Really sad to see MEM pulled down. I've connected through there a couple times, and I really enjoy the airport. It has a little bit of that small town feel to it. If the connecting opportunities still existed, I'd go through there instead of ATL. But alas, they don't.

User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1312 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 8140 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO EWR-CLT JUL 6>5
CO IAH-CLT JUL 8>6 AUG 8>6

Always nice to see

Quoting wn676 (Reply 12):
Now here's the odd thing, on Saturdays in June I see they have a DCA-YHZ roundtrip in addition to the three flights from PHL...anyone know what that's about??

DCA-business traffic on Saturdays is pretty poor compared to week days, so it makes sense to add a route (like they do with HHH and ILM) on saturdays that are leisure routes. Makes much better use of an airplane that way


User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1312 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 8106 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US BWI-LGA JUL 6>5
US CHO-LGA AUG 3>1.1
US IAD-LGA JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
US ITH-LGA JUL 3>1.4 AUG 3>0.7
US LGA-MDT JUL 3>1.7
US PHL-LGA JUL 16>14 AUG 18>17

Preparing for a slot swap in the Fall maybe???

I imagine we will hear very soon if the DOT/FAA/DL/US have come to an agreement on the deal, or if US/DL will pursue their lawsuit. My guess is the DOT/FAA/DL/US are waiting on the outcome of the congress ruling on the potential long-range perimeter slots before they make a decision.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7334 posts, RR: 14
Reply 23, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 7990 times:

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 20):
If the connecting opportunities still existed, I'd go through there instead of ATL. But alas, they don't.

Good point. ATL is hideous. I avoid ORD/ATL/EWR/LGA when connecting.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 22):
I imagine we will hear very soon if the DOT/FAA/DL/US have come to an agreement on the deal, or if US/DL will pursue their lawsuit.

I've thought that before.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 22):
My guess is the DOT/FAA/DL/US are waiting on the outcome of the congress ruling on the potential long-range perimeter slots before they make a decision.

Good theory, although I'm not sure it will change anything with the settlement.


User currently onlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6793 posts, RR: 32
Reply 24, posted (3 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7945 times:

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 22):
I imagine we will hear very soon if the DOT/FAA/DL/US have come to an agreement on the deal, or if US/DL will pursue their lawsuit. My guess is the DOT/FAA/DL/US are waiting on the outcome of the congress ruling on the potential long-range perimeter slots before they make a decision.

That's an interesting point; I wonder if the ability to shift large hub slots to out-of-perimeter flying might be holding up the potential slot swap. Delta's DCA slots become a LOT more valuable if they can be used to LAX/SFO/SEA/SAN/SLC/PDX/LAS/PHX. And my guess is that US Airways is still losing money at LGA, so Delta is happy to let them bleed a bit more.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 20):
Really sad to see MEM pulled down. I've connected through there a couple times, and I really enjoy the airport. It has a little bit of that small town feel to it.

To me, it feels like going back into a time warp to the 70's. Narrow corridors, tiny gate lounges (not that they need to be much larger when everything is 50 seats and under), low ceilings, and that ever-present gray brick for the walls. And apart from the moving sidewalks between the concourses, the walks can be pretty lengthy.

Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
I would agree except that geographically I think MEM is better positioned for connections.

Agreed, which is why I said it wasn't "unworkable." It could take on the role that DFW used to fill for Delta, though it's not quite as good. Even though Delta generally lagged in most O&D's from DFW, they actually led in most markets from the South, including Florida. They just got killed everywhere else. Unfortunately, they can be #1 in virtually every market from MEM, but it's meaningless since the markets are so small with the fares Delta chooses to offer. There is no reason that DAL/DFW-LIT should have over twice as much traffic as DFW/DAL-MEM apart from the outrageous fares on the latter.

And the geography isn't as good as DFW for MEM; it's not a great location for westbound traffic from Texas and it's not a lot better than ATL for much of Louisiana, either.

I think that ultimately both MEM and CVG are going to look like what Delta has been trying to do in STL, CMH, and RDU.


25 steeler83 : EWR-PIT losing one frequency and IAH-PIT losing 2 for July and August... Is that something up with the UA merger or some month-to-month tweak to the s
26 enilria : We agree. I think the fact that DL (and prior NW) can't seem to make MEM work to anywhere beyond Texas is a deathknell. Without those O&Ds to off
27 SJUSXM : Is it just me or does this seem like a rather large draw down for CO from both EWR and IAH?
28 smoot4208 : LGA was profitable in 2010...
29 n9801f : I definitely share the worry about MEM, and the sadness that RJNUT expressed. I've also scratched my head over a few of the MEM spokes (e.g. AMA). Bu
30 ouboy79 : I think it also needs to be considered does the information include the CR7s coded under UA and not CO? Since right now it is 9 daily with 2 CR7s, 3
31 crj200faguy : Are most of these mainline aircraft or CRJ200s?
32 n9801f : As one who's done it many times, I can tell you that these kinds of reports can be a large amount of work. I'm quite grateful to enilria for doing it
33 MSPNWA : Transfers to UA have to be a reason for some of the dramatic numbers. I know that's the reason behind EWR-MSP. UAX 170s have been placed on that rout
34 ADent : No UA changes listed this week?
35 whatusaid : That is now daily starting April 14/15, in response to AM starting up daily FAT-GDL on April 4. The two carriers will apparently beat each other up o
36 TheGov : As someone else mentioned, this might be in preparation of the Southwest arrival once the AirTran merger is complete. However, earlier in the week, t
37 enilria : I actually have barely paid attention with all the refleeting noise in their schedule. Just like TOL was... Yes, but again those flights only operate
38 yellowtail : CO really trimmed CentAmerica and Caribbean didn't they.... but they kept BZE at full force....gotta love those BZE yields!
39 Post contains images msypi7185 : I'm not so sure. Has WN annouced an expansion in MEM that I have missed. The flights are being pulled because they are losing money. DL and US both a
40 Santi319 : Spirit did too, jetBlue did too, makes you wonder if they are expecting an out of the ordinary hurricane season?
41 ouboy79 : I figured someone was going to take my comments wrong. LOL I'm not discounting the work, and yes I'm aware he has to do these all manually. I am just
42 n9801f : Glad I misunderstood, then. And yes, whether it's OAG, traffic data, etc., you are right to look deeply into the story behind the numbers. But that s
43 Post contains images ABQ747 : That sucks. CO really seems to be drawing down service at ABQ. Not too long ago, there used to be multiple daily 737s on IAH-ABQ. Now, it's nothing b
44 MAH4546 : It has always been 2x mainline during winter, 1x during summer. This year DL loaded a second daily summer frequency with a CR9, but looks like it won
45 Post contains images enilria : Not an expansion, but they have de facto announced service. Well, here's the thing. If I listed capacity changes for the whole U.S. the report would
46 flyinryan99 : What an ass...all he's simply saying is there is more to the story to the one guy. He's not discounting your work. Neither am I. I look forward to th
47 knope2001 : --Virtually all of us appreciate the time and effort it takes to compile the data and post it dilligently each week. Without that continued effort, th
48 enilria : Thank you. Very much appreciated and I agree.
49 yellowtail : Well NK is just having trouble filling its planes. With CTOs/GSA...it is very hard to get the VFR traffic. JetBlue is having to reallocate assets as
50 greenair727 : How does this operate--one flight every two weeks?
51 apodino : I don't get what DL is trying to accomplish in MEM, you mention the freq reductions to places like VPS, but then the following is also true Which are
52 BoeingGuy : Those numbers are the daily frequency, not weekly. So that flight is every other day. I see it doesn't work out exactly mathematically since it can't
53 enilria : No, that simply means that it operates 3 or 4 flights per week rather than 6 per week previously averaged over a month. In general, here's the way it
54 RamblinMan : Seems like you answered it, actually... MEM is kind of useless if it serves the exact same markets as ATL since it's quite close. But in a different
55 Santi319 : source? I actually can see the loads on NK and it is all oversold to the caribbean...I also have access to Jetblue and it is also all booked to capac
56 enilria : Well said. MEM could be a Western-feeding hub, but it isn't. I guess the bottom line is that there is not enough local business travel in Memphis to
57 Post contains images ouboy79 : I think there is some general confusion that I agree with your position and what you are saying and the details behind the reports you provide. It is
58 wn676 : Two of the PHL-YHZ frequencies will be on the 170 (starts in June), with the remaining PHL frequency and DCA-YHZ being flown with the CRJ. That's how
59 Post contains images enilria : That's fair... Perhaps some of the problem is that I want everybody to be happy and frankly that's impossible because the four sides of the rectangle
60 msypi7185 : I understand that WN will now serve MEM due the merger with AirTran, but I do not believe that other airlines are cutting MEM simply because WN will
61 PHLwok : DCA-YHZ is 811 miles and PHL-YHZ is 692 by the great circle route, so the CRJ shouldn't have range trouble. ZW flies MCI-PHL on the CRJ as well, and
62 Cubsrule : Why would WN do that when they do not fly LIT/BHM/IND/SDF-LAX?
63 Post contains images enilria : I agree that is probably not the main reason others are cutting service at this point. Somebody else made that point, but if you have a route that is
64 Cubsrule : Not really. BNA is a quite a bit larger market and also has relatively significant business ties to southern California (music and automotive primari
65 enilria : Automotive is fairly minimal except as an Asia connect. Music also has been on the wane for a while, but I'm not arguing that the market is as big. I
66 Cubsrule : Based on what measure? Looking at MSAs, MEM is ~400,000 smaller than IND and roughly the same size as SDF (~50,000 bigger).
67 CO777DAL : Who/What is this?
68 enilria : In terms of airport total O&D revenue, MEM is double LIT, 50% bigger than BHM, smaller than IND, and 33% bigger than SDF. I was shocked to see in
69 globalflyer : Why has CO reduced EWR to ATL by so much. On some days there are only two nonstops, a far cry from the hourly shuttle service a few years ago. FL aban
70 FlyPNS1 : But BNA is also used as a "hub" for WN. You can fly routes like ORF-BNA-LAX, JAX-BNA-LAX, BDL-BNA-LAX. I don't expect that WN will use MEM as a hub,
71 enilria : That's true, but WN chose it for a "hub" to a large extent because it was no longer a hub for AA. They could follow the same logic in MEM. I'm not sa
72 Cubsrule : Wouldn't killing the AA hub at STL (more quickly than it died) have been similarly easy or even easier? Where will WN get the gates?
73 IndyWA : There are still 7 flights per weekday from what I saw. 4 on CO/COEX metal and 3 on UAX metal (remember - UAX aircraft will not show up on CO website)
74 TOMMY767 : Likely because they are now flying the UAX 170s on the route now. DL has always kicked CO's ass on the EWR-ATL route anyway as they have always had t
75 enilria : Well, WN has had at least 30 flights at STL for a long time. I guess I'm saying MEM is more fragile. Additionally, Kelleher and Crandall had a handsh
76 Cubsrule : In LAX, which I believe has the highest utilization in the system.
77 CODC10 : In terms of the actual O&D on the route, the two carriers are much closer (only a few percentage points), but the strength of the ATL hub and onw
78 SESGDL : Where is WN getting the planes to start all these new flights once the merger with FL is complete? There are a number of cities that FL serves that W
79 Post contains images enilria : Ohhh. It's one flight. They'll just cut something else if they are maxxed out. That's not really a big deal. By closing a bunch of small AirTran stat
80 TOMMY767 : Still, you'd figure with FL out of the market CO would step up their game in terms of frequency to match DL. Back when FL flew into EWR DL largely fl
81 apodino : What flight numbers are the CRJs loaded with? I am just wondering if it will be ZW or JI operating these? The great circle route to YHZ is a very mis
82 Cubsrule : But why would they want to? Why is MEM-LAX an important route for WN?
83 FSDan : Whether or not DL draws down MEM, I think they will keep LAX. That is the only flight from MEM to the West Coast that consistently supports three dai
84 globalflyer : Thanks! I did not realize that it would not show up on the website.
85 TOMMY767 : IIRC, loads are rather healthy on EWR-MEM with DL. Like EWR-CVG, I think it will hang on for a while.
86 wn676 : They're ZW flights, 3706/3707 and 3984/3985.
87 FSDan : Very possible. I was thinking pretty much in terms of an absolute worst-case scenario, with a draw-down to just a focus city. If they keep a level of
88 enilria : Very well analyzed. I think, though, if MEM-LAX ultimately stays it will be because of LAX and not MEM. If they continue building LAX it might stay,
89 Cubsrule : How is STL not a former hub?
90 yellowtail : This time of year....height of the tourist season, spring break and carnival time...you won't get a seat anywhere in the Caribbean...after April 1 it
91 FSDan : No, but if they decide to grow LAX some more I could see STL being added. STL is bordering on being a focus city. I believe he was just talking about
92 Cubsrule : With what equipment and what schedule? It's going to be hard to compete unless AA exits (which could very well happen).
93 enilria : I completely agree that if they are going to fly dumb stuff like LAX-PHX which has trash yields, they should be in STL-LAX. Yes, I was talking about
94 FSDan : I would guess that it would probably just be 1x daily on a 320 or 738, similar to CMH/RDU. Maybe 2x daily like MSY. But hey, they're going into LAX-M
95 Cubsrule : How does that work at a frequency disadvantage to WN and AA, though? It's not like CMH or RDU where there's no competition.
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