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Delta Delays Guangzhou Route Start-up  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Posted (3 years 9 months 6 hours ago) and read 7819 times:

No surprise with the mess in Japan, Delta Airlines filed with the DOT for delay in start-up of its intended service between Tokyo and Guangzhou, China citing "severe impact on travel demand".

Delta originally planned a April 6th commencement, and now advises of intents to start service on July 5, 2011.

OST-2010-0285


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
20 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineSonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1888 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 9 months 6 hours ago) and read 7805 times:
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Not surprising given how badly travel to Japan was affected by the disasters. Expect to see more such announcements going forward as all airlines evaluate the traffic impact over the next several weeks.

User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20822 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (3 years 9 months 5 hours ago) and read 7476 times:

As a 5th freedom flight, shouldn't the route be evaluated by the US->Guangzhou traffic potential, regardless of what's happening in Japan? It really shouldn't matter that much where the flight stops in Asia. Or does DL depend on such a high percentage of local traffic ex-NRT that that component alone can make or break their intra-Asia 5th freedom routes?


International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineusdcaguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 1005 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (3 years 9 months 4 hours ago) and read 7422 times:

Don't be fooled by this announcement. Everyone knows DL wants to delay the flight due to lack of demand, whether it be coming from the US, Japan or China and whether it be due to an earthquake, irrational consumer fear of Japan or an unattractive hard product. I've grown very skeptical of NRT-CAN for DL. There just is not the demand in that market that there should be to make the flight viable for them in anything other than the best of circumstances.

User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6532 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (3 years 9 months 4 hours ago) and read 7392 times:

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 3):
Everyone knows DL wants to delay the flight due to lack of demand,

Are you sure that everyone knows this?

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 3):
There just is not the demand in that market that there should be to make the flight viable for them in anything other than the best of circumstances.

What demand do you show there is for the market? You seem to be very sure is isn't enough?


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7768 posts, RR: 27
Reply 5, posted (3 years 9 months 4 hours ago) and read 7378 times:

OUTRAGE!

How dare DL delay the start of a route! They should never, ever be allowed to do that. They filed to start it, therefore they should fly it!

How cares if demand isn't there and there was one of the world's largest natural disasters in recent times, who cares! They should fly it, and put a 744 on it, and fly it empty!

Just the typical DL dartboard!

....there, someone had to say it, might as well be me.

Ok, we can just go on and turn this thread into DL bickerfest, then whine about how DL is going to close MEM & CVG, and how DL is going to downsize MSP, and how DTW is going down because the city is decline, and how DL is going to get run out of ATL by WN.


Might as well just lock the thread now!


User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2908 posts, RR: 31
Reply 6, posted (3 years 9 months 3 hours ago) and read 7127 times:

Now now, why should DL try to develop a nascent foreign market with enormous future growth potential when they have much more important priorities such as, oh I don't know, LAX-MCI  .

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
No surprise with the mess in Japan, Delta Airlines filed with the DOT for delay in start-up of its intended service between Tokyo and Guangzhou, China citing "severe impact on travel demand".

Actually, this is surprising. Most of the demand for CAN should be coming from the U.S., with NRT (Japan) O&D being the icing on the cake. Although Westerners have been advised not to visit Japan at this time, I doubt too many are going out of their way to avoid mere transit through it...

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Delta originally planned a April 6th commencement, and now advises of intents to start service on July 5, 2011.

By July, I don't think things will be a heck of a lot better for Japan. It will be a long, slow, painful, arduous recovery process. Look at how long it took New Orleans (and its airport, in terms of air service) to recover from Katrina...

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 1):
Not surprising given how badly travel to Japan was affected by the disasters. Expect to see more such announcements going forward as all airlines evaluate the traffic impact over the next several weeks.

If it were just about any other city, I would agree. However, slots at NRT and HND are (or were) some of the most highly coveted in the entire world. I don't think any major airlines are keen on potentially losing some or even all access to the world's largest metropolis..

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
As a 5th freedom flight, shouldn't the route be evaluated by the US->Guangzhou traffic potential, regardless of what's happening in Japan? It really shouldn't matter that much where the flight stops in Asia.

In most cases, the stop wouldn't matter. DL could move the flight to KIX, NGO, or even someplace like ICN, but then they lose the important feed from key markets like LAX and JFK (only available from NRT). They would never be able to do CAN from anywhere other than NRT. Something like SEA-NGO-CAN or DTW-KIX-CAN would be as much a success as ATL-DKR-LAD!

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
Or does DL depend on such a high percentage of local traffic ex-NRT that that component alone can make or break their intra-Asia 5th freedom routes?

Well, we saw that NRT-SGN flopped - because they were forbidden to carry local traffic on it. The only established flight over an hour or so that I know of with zero local traffic rights would be QF's LAX-JFK. Local traffic is a key component of virtually any successful 5th freedom route.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlinedeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (3 years 9 months 3 hours ago) and read 7061 times:

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 5):

lol nice one.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 4):

Are you sure that everyone knows this?

I missed the memo.....

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 6):

Actually, this is surprising. Most of the demand for CAN should be coming from the U.S., with NRT (Japan) O&D being the icing on the cake. Although Westerners have been advised not to visit Japan at this time, I doubt too many are going out of their way to avoid mere transit through it...

NRT depends ona good bit of local traffic, It is a bit more than just icing on the cake.

But people are seeing non-stop on Delta.com from LAX(on CZ) or a stop in TYO and they are taking the codeshare because of the way the media is talking about Japan. The stupid American doesn't understand it is safe to fly via NRT.



yep.
User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3489 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (3 years 9 months 2 hours ago) and read 7020 times:

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 3):
Don't be fooled by this announcement. Everyone knows DL wants to delay the flight due to lack of demand, whether it be coming from the US, Japan or China and whether it be due to an earthquake, irrational consumer fear of Japan or an unattractive hard product. I've grown very skeptical of NRT-CAN for DL. There just is not the demand in that market that there should be to make the flight viable for them in anything other than the best of circumstances.

Almost none of what you've said is true. There is a ton of demand for NRT-CAN, from both Japan and from US markets. The uncertainty in Japan is the reason for this delay, keep in mind that before the Japan disaster DL had seen better than expected results in the region.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 6):
Actually, this is surprising. Most of the demand for CAN should be coming from the U.S., with NRT (Japan) O&D being the icing on the cake. Although Westerners have been advised not to visit Japan at this time, I doubt too many are going out of their way to avoid mere transit through it...

I work with a number of people who frequently travel to Asia, both Japan and beyond. Living in MSP, most travelers fly DL and most fly through NRT to get to anywhere else in Asia they need to go. It would amaze people how many people I know who've canceled trips just through NRT, even as far out as May and June, and how many others have rebooked through other airports, like ICN, rather than connect or fly to Japan at all. DL's forecast 20% drop off in demand to Japan is not happening for no reason. Many don't want to deal with the whole mess at all, and would rather avoid Japan, for now, if they can. I'm sure this will change in the future, but for now many simply don't want to go to Japan.

Jeremy


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 9, posted (3 years 9 months 2 hours ago) and read 6975 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 8):
There is a ton of demand for NRT-CAN, from both Japan and from US markets.

Japan? Absolutely.

United States? Nope.

LAX-CAN: 58 PDEW
NYC-CAN: 38 PDEW
SFO-CAN: 25 PDEW
CHI-CAN: 6 PDEW
WAS-CAN: 3 PDEW
MIA-CAN: 2 PDEW
DFW-CAN: 1 PDEW



a.
User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2234 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 9 months 2 hours ago) and read 6762 times:

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 6):
By July, I don't think things will be a heck of a lot better for Japan. It will be a long, slow, painful, arduous recovery process. Look at how long it took New Orleans (and its airport, in terms of air service) to recover from Katrina...

I disagree. Japan is a huge economy, and Tokyo is the center of that. Those in charge will likely be doing everything they can to get their infrastructure in order STAT. New Orleans was/is by no means of any significance to air travel in the United States.


User currently onlinejetjack74 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 7438 posts, RR: 50
Reply 11, posted (3 years 9 months 1 hour ago) and read 6468 times:
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Quoting luckyone (Reply 10):
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 6):
By July, I don't think things will be a heck of a lot better for Japan. It will be a long, slow, painful, arduous recovery process. Look at how long it took New Orleans (and its airport, in terms of air service) to recover from Katrina...

I disagree. Japan is a huge economy, and Tokyo is the center of that. Those in charge will likely be doing everything they can to get their infrastructure in order STAT. New Orleans was/is by no means of any significance to air travel in the United States.

Nor was NRT directly hit by the tsunami(Sendai was, but not NRT). Eventually, in a matter of weeks, when infrastructure goes from a search and rescue to a recovery mode, business will return in full force. Peoplenare frightened by what theyre seeing on Fox News, CNN, and BBC of continued devastation and the almost hourly change in the "current situation". But no US airlines have pulled out of NRT, and none will. Because if we do, someone else is bound to jump in. Ive had 5 trips this month NRT/KIX, and each time I go, things are changingbfor the better. 3, 5 weeks from now, you wont be able to get a seat into Japan its going to be so busy.



Made from jets!
User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3489 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (3 years 9 months ago) and read 5933 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 9):

LAX-CAN: 58 PDEW
NYC-CAN: 38 PDEW
SFO-CAN: 25 PDEW
CHI-CAN: 6 PDEW
WAS-CAN: 3 PDEW
MIA-CAN: 2 PDEW
DFW-CAN: 1 PDEW

That's 7 markets, but if you include the hundreds of US markets DL serves, whether they only add 1 or 2 passengers PDEW, I'm sure the numbers justify a daily 767-300ER from NRT, especially when adding in Japanese passengers. If there was no market from service from the US to China I doubt that UA would've applied for SFO-CAN rights, despite the route never actually materializing. Additionally, this is a market that will only grow in the future, it's not as if it's a mature market like many that DL has entered in the past.

Jeremy


User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Reply 13, posted (3 years 9 months ago) and read 5817 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 12):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 9):

LAX-CAN: 58 PDEW
NYC-CAN: 38 PDEW
SFO-CAN: 25 PDEW
CHI-CAN: 6 PDEW
WAS-CAN: 3 PDEW
MIA-CAN: 2 PDEW
DFW-CAN: 1 PDEW

That's 7 markets, but if you include the hundreds of US markets DL serves, whether they only add 1 or 2 passengers PDEW, I'm sure the numbers justify a daily 767-300ER from NRT, especially when adding in Japanese passengers. If there was no market from service from the US to China I doubt that UA would've applied for SFO-CAN rights, despite the route never actually materializing. Additionally, this is a market that will only grow in the future, it's not as if it's a mature market like many that DL has entered in the past.

Jeremy

But one thing these number do support is the fact that Delta was counting on NRT-CAN local traffic to help support this service. Which is exactly why the situation in Japan has impacted the launch.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 14, posted (3 years 9 months ago) and read 5803 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 12):
That's 7 markets, but if you include the hundreds of US markets DL serves, whether they only add 1 or 2 passengers PDEW

Seven markets that account for a 86% of Guangzhou-United States demand (throw in Seattle and you cross 90%).

Most markets don't even register .5 PDEW, let alone 1. Dallas is one of the largest U.S.-Asia markets and still is only 1 PDEW. It just shows the market is small, not huge like you claim. It's no wonder United keeps delaying the service and Delta has already pulled out once - the market has shown very little growth over the past few years.

I don't disagree it shows promise, but not right now. China Southern has it covered, and the fares are quite low between the U.S. and Guangzhou, because its a lot of ethnic traffic.

[Edited 2011-03-25 17:30:34]

[Edited 2011-03-25 17:35:44]


a.
User currently offlinemgold07 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 19 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (3 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5697 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

No surprise with the mess in Japan, Delta Airlines filed with the DOT for delay in start-up of its intended service between Tokyo and Guangzhou, China citing "severe impact on travel demand".


Delta AIR LINES.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4068 posts, RR: 13
Reply 16, posted (3 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5230 times:

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 3):
Don't be fooled by this announcement. Everyone knows DL wants to delay the flight due to lack of demand, whether it be coming from the US, Japan or China and whether it be due to an earthquake

Actually Delta was the US airline that was hardest hit by the travel slump in Japan. Their actions seem justifiable.



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User currently offlinegweilo88 From Hong Kong, joined May 2009, 26 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5138 times:

Quoting luckyone (Reply 10):
LAX-CAN: 58 PDEW
NYC-CAN: 38 PDEW
SFO-CAN: 25 PDEW
CHI-CAN: 6 PDEW
WAS-CAN: 3 PDEW
MIA-CAN: 2 PDEW
DFW-CAN: 1 PDEW

I wonder how are these numbers determined? For example, is it by number of daily passengers that currently buy a ticket from NYC-CAN with connections?
These days many of my customers arrive at HKG and immediately board a bus at HKG to go directly to China and skip staying in Hong Kong at all. If I want to meet them I need to go to China to see them rather than in my Hong Kong office. Many tell me if there were better flight choices to CAN they would prefer to fly to CAN and skip HKG. Would these people be included in the above statistics?


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 18, posted (3 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5039 times:

Quoting gweilo88 (Reply 17):
Quoting gweilo88 (Reply 17):
Quoting luckyone (Reply 10):
LAX-CAN: 58 PDEW
NYC-CAN: 38 PDEW
SFO-CAN: 25 PDEW
CHI-CAN: 6 PDEW
WAS-CAN: 3 PDEW
MIA-CAN: 2 PDEW
DFW-CAN: 1 PDEW

I wonder how are these numbers determined? For example, is it by number of daily passengers that currently buy a ticket from NYC-CAN with connections?
These days many of my customers arrive at HKG and immediately board a bus at HKG to go directly to China and skip staying in Hong Kong at all. If I want to meet them I need to go to China to see them rather than in my Hong Kong office. Many tell me if there were better flight choices to CAN they would prefer to fly to CAN and skip HKG. Would these people be included in the above statistics?

No, it would not. But I find it hard to believe a lot of people are willing to pay more money to fly to Hong Kong and the take alternative transport to Guangzhou. U.S.-Guangzhoy fares are cheaper. They are essentially spending more money to add hassle. I could imagine that business travelers do this because of time constraints or the superior premium products on airline flying to Hong Kong, but not the bulk of the market, which is VFR.



a.
User currently offlineMPDPilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1005 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (3 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3302 times:

I think Delta is quite justified in their request. Another thing to consider with this discussion about the viability of the route over all is the massive hub that China Southern operates out of CAN. Delta's partner operates a hub there so it isn't just US-CAN demand but US-CAN-and beyond as well. Once again enough to fill a 767 (which is the aircraft I believe they were using).


One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
User currently offlinefilejw From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 359 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (3 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3291 times:

FYI NWA flew NRT CAN a few years back and only stopped because they traded a China frequency for a route they thought would do better.Having flown NRT CAN many times during that period I can tell you it rarely had any open seats. The reason the CAN flight start was delayed is because of a worry about fuel in NRT, general logistics in NRT for crew and then the forecast of reduced demand through NRT for the next 60 to 90 days.

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