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Arpey: "Fuel Crisis."  
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19603 posts, RR: 58
Posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 16319 times:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/08/news..._crisis/index.htm?cnn=yes&hpt=Sbin

Quote:
"We're facing another fuel crisis, and crisis is not too strong of a word," said American Airlines CEO Gerard Arpey, speaking at a conference of business journalists in Dallas.

Lufthansa is investing in long-term biofuels development with their "PureSky" program. I think that they are hoping that biofuels, while not necessarly less expensive, will offer superior price stability to fossil fuels. As biofuel production increases and both advances in technology and economies of scale bring down prices, it will rapidly outcompete fossil fuel. This, to me, is so obvious I do wonder why US airlines haven't considered it.

71 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16862 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 16117 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
This, to me, is so obvious I do wonder why US airlines haven't considered it.

CO has already test flown aircraft flown using bio fuel;

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28547191/ns/us_news-environment/



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinedfwrevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 971 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 15976 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
As biofuel production increases and both advances in technology and economies of scale bring down prices, it will rapidly outcompete fossil fuel. This, to me, is so obvious I do wonder why US airlines haven't considered it.

I think "rapidly" is optimistic. I would comfortably estimate that biofuels will not significantly alter the economics of transportation fuels for another 25 years (if that). That is a long, long time; given that most businesses are looking for a return on capital in 5 years or less. An airline could perhaps operate an entire generation of aircraft types longer before approaching a decision regarding biofuels.

On the flip side, I think we have both the technical readiness and market conditions for gas-to-liquid conversion to become a relevant source of transportation fuel. We have more natural gas than we know what to do with in the United States and the byproduct of the Fischer-Tropsch reaction is closer to aviation kerosene than gasoline. Even better, it would not require a capital commitment on behalf of the airlines.


User currently offline0NEWAIR0 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 939 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 15960 times:

American's problems are so much greater than fuel alone, but fuel will indeed exacerbate them... but I digress...

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
As biofuel production increases and both advances in technology and economies of scale bring down prices, it will rapidly outcompete fossil fuel.

But how long will that take? 10 years? 20 years? ...

One thing that I think is different between European companies and US companies (public companies) is that European companies seem to be better at making long term decisions while the US companies are all about maximizing stock price for the short term... perhaps a reason why it "appears" that US airlines, in general, haven't considered biofuels.

[Edited 2011-04-10 18:32:34]


"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams."
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2084 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 15581 times:

Quoting 0NEWAIR0 (Reply 3):
But how long will that take? 10 years? 20 years? ..

If you don't the race, you never get to the finish line.

I agree 100% about the problems with paying more attention to quarterly reports than long range planning.


User currently offlineKFlyer From Sri Lanka, joined Mar 2007, 1226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 15524 times:

When EK starts using bio-fuels, that's when others should too. No, not because any fuel subsidy but because TC would definitely know the right timing.


The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
User currently offlineFURUREFA From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 801 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 15484 times:

I wouldn't call it a "fuel crisis", but more of a revenue management/pricing crisis... The airline industry will absolutely need to continue managing capacity responsibly and charge fares that are more in line with the costs required to operate an aircraft....

User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19603 posts, RR: 58
Reply 7, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 14715 times:

Quoting dfwrevolution (Reply 2):

I think "rapidly" is optimistic.

Given the rate at which new technologies tend to emerge, I would predict with within 15 years after introduction, biodiesel would be on par with fossil fuel for costs. The initial drop in price would probably be the fastest, just as improvements in jet engines were fastest at the start of the technology. It took less than two decades to go from Comet 1 to 747-100. At first, simple tweaks and obvious solutions to problems are plentiful. It's not until the technology matured that we had to start resorting to "fancy tricks" to improve the technology using CFD and high-tech materials.

Once such an investment is made, the improvements will come rapidly.

Quoting 0NEWAIR0 (Reply 3):

One thing that I think is different between European companies and US companies (public companies) is that European companies seem to be better at making long term decisions while the US companies are all about maximizing stock price for the short term... perhaps a reason why it "appears" that US airlines, in general, haven't considered biofuels.

This is a problem with the United States in general. We have no long-term vision, and that may well be the downfall of the country. We haven't planned ahead for eventualities such as $200+/bbl crude or reaching Peak Oil before we thought we would. Europe is preparing. Asia is preparing. We are not.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8492 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 14395 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Thread starter):
This, to me, is so obvious I do wonder why US airlines haven't considered it.

If airlines were experts in this area, they would quit with the airline business altogether and join the commodity trading business. They do not have a competence in energy. Generally speaking

In time, airlines will connect with leading fuel procurement / hedging consulting services. That's the best they can hope for.

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 6):
but more of a revenue management/pricing crisis..

...for American Airlines. It's kind of like GM in the credit crisis in 2008. Is it a crisis, sure... will it cause fundamentally unstable companies to collapse, sure it will.

Quoting 0NEWAIR0 (Reply 3):
American's problems are so much greater than fuel alone, but fuel will indeed exacerbate them... but I digress...

It has a lot to do with the value of the dollar. Not saying I expect the dollar to fall further, but it could. As a result, by definition, the dollar price of oil rises. (not "more expensive oil" per se). Just something to think about.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19603 posts, RR: 58
Reply 9, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 13836 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):

If airlines were experts in this area, they would quit with the airline business altogether and join the commodity trading business. They do not have a competence in energy. Generally speaking

No, because up until recently they didn't need to.

But they are responsible for 1-3% of global fossil fuel consumption and so they use a god-awful lot of the stuff. Some of them, like LH, are wising up and trying to become experts.


User currently offlineairbuster From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 442 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 13835 times:

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 5):
No, not because any fuel subsidy but because TC would definitely know the right timing.

Are you kidding me? TC is like a puppet on a string....



FLY FOKKER JET LINE!
User currently offlinefuelfool From United States of America, joined Feb 2011, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 13597 times:

Biofuels will not have wide spread success until they discover ways to produce cellulosic ethanol (grass, wood) in large quantities. The shear volume of fuel needed to power the airlines will hold back the use of biofuels until a large infrastructure is in place. The production facilities to produce large amounts of biofuels simply do not exist, yet. It will be 20 years, at least, till there is wide spread use of biofuels in automobiles. Only after lengthy use will the FAA approve biofuel use in airliners.


I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning...Smells like victory!
User currently offlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1133 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 13442 times:

Quoting fuelfool (Reply 11):
The production facilities to produce large amounts of biofuels simply do not exist, yet. It will be 20 years, at least, till there is wide spread use of biofuels in automobiles.


Huh?? Have you been in Europe recently and seen how they sell E85 (85% ethanol) fuel at petrolstations?
I see Europe being far ahead of the rest of the world in this.
The problem is not the production facilities itself, but how to produce the biomass without damaging environment or cannibalise on resources needed for the food production.



SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
User currently offlinephunc From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2011, 140 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 12981 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
CO has already test flown aircraft flown using bio fuel

VS too:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7261214.stm


User currently offlinefuelfool From United States of America, joined Feb 2011, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 12681 times:

There is a finite amount of fuel that can be produced from corn starch, roughly 15 billion gallons a year. The U.S. consumes over 20 million barrels of oil a day. That is a huge gap. Ethanol produces less energy so you will need to decrease range or increase the size of a fuel tank. It does not matter in a car if your fuel economy decreases as much it does in an airplane.


I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning...Smells like victory!
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2619 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 12158 times:

I wouldn't talk about fuel crisis yet, but it's coming sooner or later, so any steps to prepare for it, in the long term, will pay off.

There are several small-scale initiatives by several airlines around the globe. The most recent one from IB for example:
http://atwonline.com/eco-aviation/ne...alue-chain-biofuel-initiative-0330

They're a good start, but we need more of that, and at larger scale. Then again, most of these initiatives are coming from private industry alone, without government help. If EU governments subsidized them with just one-tenth of the money being dedicated to solar panels, we would be much farther ahead in sustainable biofuel development today.

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 12):
Have you been in Europe recently and seen how they sell E85 (85% ethanol) fuel at petrolstations?
I see Europe being far ahead of the rest of the world in this.
The problem is not the production facilities itself, but how to produce the biomass without damaging environment or cannibalise on resources needed for the food production.

Careful, your last sentence says it all. The ethanol we consume here is taking away the farmland from others. If the trend continues, eventually people [in poorer nations] will go hungry so that we Europeans can drive our cars. That is hardly a solution, but politicians & enviromentalists here refuse to see it.

But since the current 1st generation, unsustainable biofuels (corn starch, sugar cane, etc) are useless for aircraft use, the airline industry can make a big contribution by developing 2nd generation biofuels, which can be used on aircraft, and don't compete with food crops for land & water resources, apart from being much more energy-efficient over their life-cycle.


User currently offlinesrqmuc From Germany, joined Jun 2010, 58 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11811 times:

I can remember an article or a statement I read a couple of months ago about LHs biofuel long-term test (started this month), which states that if the oil price rises to the 2008 level, the use of biofuel would be economically.
Does somebody else remeber this article? I am not sure about the exact numbers and the official LH press release provides no informations on the cost effectiveness.


User currently offlinebond007 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 5414 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11725 times:

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 12):
Huh?? Have you been in Europe recently and seen how they sell E85 (85% ethanol) fuel at petrolstations?
I see Europe being far ahead of the rest of the world in this.

Actually, for E85, Brazil and the USA are probably the leaders. Europe have been using biodiesel (B100?) for a long time, since they have a high proportion of diesel cars, unlike the USA, but for E85, it's common at many pumps in parts of the USA. Even Saab, who I believe is a European leader for E85, is a GM owned company, who are the US leader with their 'flexfuel' technology.


Jimbo



I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12468 posts, RR: 25
Reply 18, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 11293 times:

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 6):
I wouldn't call it a "fuel crisis", but more of a revenue management/pricing crisis... The airline industry will absolutely need to continue managing capacity responsibly and charge fares that are more in line with the costs required to operate an aircraft....

This will be a neat trick to pull off while making sure demand doesn't collapse.

The 25% price increase we've all felt at the pumps in the last year puts a mean dent into our travel budgets.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 7):
Once such an investment is made, the improvements will come rapidly.

Realistically, the ones making such investments will most likely be the current players in the energy market, and they won't have any incentive for the price of biofuel to drop below that of fossil fuels.

Quoting bond007 (Reply 17):
Even Saab, who I believe is a European leader for E85, is a GM owned company, who are the US leader with their 'flexfuel' technology.

The Wiki sez:

Quote:

Saab Automobile was acquired by General Motors in 1990 who sold it to Spyker Cars in 2010.

So during the period of interest they were owned by GM, but not any longer.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7277 posts, RR: 85
Reply 19, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 11062 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Is this another reason for Ourpay to validate his $5.50/share stock and raising of ticket prices?   

User currently offlineRDH3E From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 1659 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 10959 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):

If airlines were experts in this area, they would quit with the airline business altogether and join the commodity trading business. They do not have a competence in energy. Generally speaking

No, because up until recently they didn't need to.

But they are responsible for 1-3% of global fossil fuel consumption and so they use a god-awful lot of the stuff. Some of them, like LH, are wising up and trying to become experts.

At UA they have said that we use approximately 1/365th of world oil consumption, or 1 days production for the whole world. There is obviously some rounding there, but you get the picture. Now roll up all the world's airlines...

[Edited 2011-04-11 06:17:42]

User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7583 posts, RR: 25
Reply 21, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 10874 times:

Quoting fxramper (Reply 19):
Is this another reason for Ourpay to validate his $5.50/share stock and raising of ticket prices?

Im thinking he may be setting the stage for Chapter 11 or some major cuts.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4396 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 10852 times:

Quoting fuelfool (Reply 14):
There is a finite amount of fuel that can be produced from corn starch, roughly 15 billion gallons a year. The U.S. consumes over 20 million barrels of oil a day. That is a huge gap.

If your numbers are right, then there is a huge gap as long as your year has less than 750 days.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6617 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 10440 times:

Quoting bond007 (Reply 17):
Europe have been using biodiesel (B100?) for a long time, since they have a high proportion of diesel cars

Some people/villages make their own fuel (colza oil) but it's not really a biodiesel, as it only works in older simpler engines, not current turbocharged high pressure injection ones. There are regulatory problems, too, for example, should fuel taxes be paid ? Taxes are more than half the price of gasoline/diesel fuel, here, even 80% when oil is cheap.

At an industrialized level, what exists is an European directive forcing the use of at least 5% biofuel in all fuels (for cars, at least). So gasoline is now E5-E10 and same for diesel. There are indeed some pumps for E85 but for some reason almost no car sold is flex. People end up experimenting themselves with it, I would if I didn't drive so little.

About gas-to-liquid, you have to first look at where the gas comes from. Fracking has just been banned here, literally days ago, just before it should have started being used, because of environmental and safety concerns.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineripcordd From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1160 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (3 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 10439 times:

There is no fuel crisis there is a plenty of fuel on the market. The price is controled by the speculators and the mafia known as opec. We need to see 5-6 dollar gallon before we make permenant changes in the us on how we use fuel. More working from home, 4 10hr days, mail 4 days a week, fix the stop lights.

25 Post contains images fxramper : It's comical what AA has become. Love getting all the Fwd: joke email from different AA pilots. They think a lot of Ourpay.
26 LAXdude1023 : More reason why I think Arpey is setting the stage for something.
27 LAXdude1023 : Some painful changes have to be made pure and simple. I dont believe for a moment that AA will cease to exist, but they need bold and inspiring leade
28 AirNZ : What factual 'fuel subsidy' are you referring to (and I mean factual, not which is a.net fashionable)
29 tristarsteve : Motorists buying cars are driven by the tax regime. Here in Sweden E85 costs less per km to use than petrol. Also E85 cars are exempt from the Conges
30 enilria : There is a huge problem with alternate energy. Actually, there are two problems. 1) The price of alternate forms of energy tend to rise with the pric
31 BOAC911 : We may see a reduction in Regional Jet fleets if oil continues to increase as much as it has in the past weeks.
32 Baroque : That is fairly easy as long as you mean costs and not price: 1. Cost assumptions do not include escalation for fuel related factors. This explains wh
33 ordjoe : Have you seen what the price of corn and soy have done in the past few months. You are sheltered somewhat from precipitous price increases, but not i
34 fxramper : Why order just two 773s? Why did AA and the gurus not see this coming with the economy back when the banks failed and dump the entire MD80 fleet for f
35 aajfksjubklyn : How do you dump 250+ planes and instantly swap them for 737's and maintain a schedule like AA's? It takes time and is called a phase out, which clear
36 LAXintl : Bio-Fuels as we understand them are hardly the answer today. There is a myraid of technical, logistical and most important financial issues that must
37 enilria : It's already happening. The real question is whether it will kill the 70 seater market which has been untouched as yet. I'm not sure I understand tha
38 DocLightning : *facepalm* Do some research about biofuels before you say things like that. But since you didn't, let me do it for you. Neither soy nor corn are vali
39 ozark1 : Well, right now at the training center they are wrapping up new hire 7 week classes for 30 Chinese Mandarin speakers and beginning today there will b
40 aail86 : In the airline world, Arpey is certainly one of the more controversial executives. Just about everyone I know connected to this business has an opini
41 Post contains links r2rho : I believe that, and there's not just the issue of price, but price stability. If I can produce 2nd generation biofuels at 140$ per barrel consistentl
42 Post contains links r2rho : Yet another interesting presentation: http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_...ents/biofuels-gmd-presentation.pdf Actually, as early as this year. And A
43 irelayer : No long term vision? Are you talking about just in the aviation sector? Or in general? I'd say that's a pretty general statement, and a ill-conceived
44 rdh3e : Not to mention other industries like Healthcare where the large majority of innovation occurs in the US.
45 CALPSAFltSkeds : First, if AA puts a 20% mix of biofuels into it's MD80s, it will use somewhere near the same amount of regular fuel because the MD80s are so inefficie
46 BOAC911 : I believe the tendency of U.S.-based corporations to over-emphasize short-term quarterly earnings or short term results is what is meant.
47 DocLightning : To be fair, all but Google, and iPhone are products of the 1990's. And while new ways of brokering information are crucial to the future, without ene
48 irelayer : To be fair I could list a lot more things that prove we have long term vision. I guess it depends on what you mean by "we". If it means The United St
49 ltbewr : Clearly the airlines around the world are fearful as to the rise and likely staying high, oil prices, it economic effects that will take away money fo
50 LMP737 : What he said.
51 lucky777 : As has been stated time and again. There really is no "fuel crisis", actually the U.S. currently has a glut of all types of fuel (gasoline, crude, eth
52 irelayer : I do agree with this, however there were (sometimes HUGE) oil shocks wayyyy before there was large scale market manipulation through fancy securities
53 Post contains images Asiaflyer : This more than a speculative bubble. Wealth in for example India and China is increasing rapidly, meaning more people can afford cars, motorcycles, r
54 bond007 : So for the past 10 years, they've been owned by GM ...my point. AFAIK they weren't making biofuel cars until 2006. jimbo
55 lucky777 : The 2006 U.S. Senate report showing that 60% of the price of a barrel of WTI crude being driven by speculation is indisputable. That isn't to say the
56 fuelfool : A barrel is 42 gallons. So at 20 million barrels a day, that is 306 billion gallons a year, by the U.S., alone. Pretty big gap, if world max producti
57 Post contains links wsp : http://www.greenpeace.org/internatio...limate-change/solutions/bioenergy/: Sounds like there is a "considerable amount" of straw-manning going on in y
58 DocLightning : There is the inconvenient and absolutely incontrovertible fact that the amount of fossil fuels on Earth is finite and limited. Even if the whole plan
59 fuelfool : If restrictions were put on oil speculation, or if the U.S. government put a cap on price per barrel, the current global economic downturn would be a
60 Lufthansa : Yes that is going to happen, it is happening in other countries already. Virginblue, for examle here are dumping the E-170 in favour of using the lar
61 genybustrvlr : I don't dispute that recent increases in fuel prices are forcing tough decisions in management meetings in addition to causing many sleepless nights f
62 Lufthansa : Oil is only part of the problem its about changing the business model. The problem bringing this about is it requires a reduction in frequencies, but
63 genybustrvlr : May I ask you background/experience in economics and financial markets? 1) Oil is a global commodity. The U.S. Government has no power to cap the pri
64 Asiaflyer : Speculators only trade the financial instrument, such as Crude oil futures. They accordingly appears as buyers as well as sellers, and does not in th
65 tristarsteve : Not all biofuels use lots of energy. The new plant BA is sponsoring in London will convert household waste to jet fuel. It will use the waste to prod
66 r2rho : Oil reached around 140$ per barrel before the crisis, dropped to aroun 50$, and as soon as the economy showed signs of recovery (IMO we are still not
67 fuelfool : 1. Oil is traded in U.S. markets, the government could easily put restrictions on it. They could also make it a public utility. I was suggesting it w
68 fuelfool : 1. Oil is traded in U.S. markets, the government could easily put restrictions on it, such as the subsidies you mentioned or dump reserves into the m
69 Asiaflyer : Which not even was posted by me!! ??? Anyhow, interesting regarding the topic is the buying side has not hedged much in this upturn, but sellers has
70 fuelfool : There you go. I was looking more for the text not the poster.
71 rdh3e : They cannot make Oil a public utility, it does not work that way. The reason public utilities exist is because they have a virtual monopoly on their
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