commavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 12208 posts, RR: 62
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6231 times:
Oh yeah - absolutely.
It's only a matter of time, as far as I'm concerned.
With the way AA has been growing at Miami in the last few years, if this growth trajectory continues at even a similar (not even necessarily comparable) rate going forward, San Diego is going to be one of the logical growth markets, I expect.
You really think so? MIA doesn't seem like a near term destination to me. I love Miami but it just doesn't seem like there is a lot of demand for MIA from SAN. A red-eye non-stop would be great for connecting with all the carribean flights in the morning.
slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3726 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6026 times:
I don't know it dosn't seem like it would be a priority on AAs radar to be honest. Its a long flight and uses alot of plane time.
Maybe it would be valuable for connections but how many Caribbean/South and Central American connections come from people in SAN who couldn't connect in DFW? They already live in paradise and if they were to get away i would think Hawaii and Mexico would be much more desirable for the vast majority of travelers. I just don't see it being something that AA has to fly that a connection in DFW cant handle. Europe even makes more sense via DFW or ORD than MIA from SAN. I don't see MIA being that valuable for SAN connecting passengers that i can think of off the top of my head which means its probably not worth the long flight time and usage of a 737-800 or 757.
psa1011 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 339 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5937 times:
I hear that people in SAN are more likely to do Hawaii or Mexico before Florida or the Caribbean. But how does this explain how other western cities of similar size, like Seattle and Phoenix, have had either AA/AS fly to MIA, and in the case of PHX, with competition from US. I would think people in those cities would vacation the aforementioned destinations first as well.
SANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5737 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5894 times:
Quoting psa1011 (Thread starter): People have mentioned this route countless times, but I am still unclear on it
And I'm one of those who's done a lot of the mentioning...
Some of the things I've pointed out:
>The average PDEW between SAN and S Florida over the last 5 years has been consistently well over 200.
>AA of course would also pick up connecting pax to the Caribbean and Latin America (and perhaps Europe.)
>SAN has no nonstop service to anywhere in Florida, including MCO, TPA, FLL and MIA.
>AA did serve the MIA market n/s briefly in 1992-93.
As has been mentioned in this thread, with the expected expansion at MIA by AA (with some pressure from DL's growth there), I'm certainly hoping that SAN, AUS, and SEA would be toward the top of the list of new destinations. Of course the horrible oil situation does have a huge effect on the matter, especially on the longer flights...
I have absolutely no faith in anyone besides AA starting anything in the market. (And it's impossible to imagine when that might eventually happen.) B6 and VX show no interest in anything new or outside the box from SAN (even though both would probably succeed with such service, whether it be from MIA or FLL); DL and UA are very unlikely. Apparently even WN -- with large op's in both FLL and SAN, has no interest in connecting those 2 cities, nor does NK. It has certainly been one of the most frustrating markets for those of us in SAN to watch over the years.
DesertAir From Mexico, joined Jan 2006, 1495 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5879 times:
This would be great for me since I often travel on AA to Latin America. This summer I am going to San Pedro Sula, Honduras and will travel SAN-LAX-MIA-SAP. SAN-MIA-SAP would be a gift from heaven. When I went to Ecuador I traveled SAN-DFW-MIA-Quito. The connections in DFW were tight due to loooooong taxing time on the ground and waiting for an available gate. I decided to cut out DFW this time.
irelayer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 1074 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 5725 times:
Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 2): You really think so? MIA doesn't seem like a near term destination to me. I love Miami but it just doesn't seem like there is a lot of demand for MIA from SAN. A red-eye non-stop would be great for connecting with all the carribean flights in the morning.
Anecdotally, I just flew SAN-AUS-FLL on WN two weeks ago and there were about 40 of us who got on at SAN and got off at FLL (aircraft was going to BNA and CLE next). This was on a Tuesday though...
Cool thing was it was a 735 instead of a usual 733/73G
SESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3508 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 5504 times:
MIA-SAN should be flying route now given the demand for it, along with MIA-SEA (on AA). Unfortunately, longer transcon routes like these are less practical in a high-cost fuel environment like what exists today. In the future, both routes will undoubtedly regain service.
SANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5737 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5318 times:
Quoting SANFan (Reply 5): >AA did serve the MIA market n/s briefly in 1992-93.
If anyone will notice THIS post of mine, I will add that AA flew SAN-MIA nonstop between 6/15/92 and 4/4/93. (I cannot provide exact flight numbers, times, or equipment at this time since I don't have access to my timetables at this time.)
Quoting MiAAmi (Reply 7): I get a lot of people who take the MIA-LAX nonstop and connect to SAN. We now have 8 nonstops from MIA-LAX and probably twice that on LAX-SAN so a pretty easy connection
Of course. As I've stated in previous threads about this subject, I would be willing to bet that at least one of those many AA n/s between LA and MIA could be moved 100 miles south (to Lindbergh) and that would nicely handle the 100+ pax a day (at least) who probably connect at LAX to fly between SAN and MIA! And yes, as you mentioned, MiAAmi, the way it is now, there are many possible connections at LA for those heading for SD. But a nonstop in the market would save that connection at LAX -- including a terminal change I believe? -- and all that that involves for a significant number of pax every day.
After all, MIA is supposed to be a major hub for AA, and SAN is even connected nonstop with JFK (in addition to DFW, ORD and LAX.) It therefore seems a rather major gap in AA's domestic route map to NOT connect MIA with a good-sized, AAdvantage-heavy, spoke-station such as San Diego...
lindy field From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 3133 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5172 times:
I remember the n/s SAN-MIA flights in the early 1990s twice daily on 767s. My recollection is that there was a RON flight with early morning departure out of SAN and a second departing in the early afternoon.
goblin211 From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4169 times:
Nah, I'm sorry but I don't think it'll work either. I flew from TPA-SFO and had to connect in ORD. Now, I bring this up b/c imagine going from MIA, which is farther than TPA, to SAN. AA already has a hub in LAX so, they'd probably just drop people off there instead of going to SAN when their hub is more convenient.
Aeroflot001 From Argentina, joined Oct 2009, 412 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 3945 times:
I anticipate this route eventually by AA and their growth here at MIA is clear, they recently just opened the final Section of the New North TerminAAl which used to be AAs newwest terminal before J and was known as terminal A,
Since I can see that some of you are worried about loads on the route what aircraft are you anticipating that will be used on the route? If the demand isnt trememndously high couldnt a 737 do the trick?
exFATboy From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2974 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3621 times:
Quoting SANFan (Reply 5): >The average PDEW between SAN and S Florida over the last 5 years has been consistently well over 200.
But is that enough to support a daily non-stop?
You don't say how far over 200 it is, but let's presume 250 PDEW between SAN and South Florida - I presume you're saying MIA, FLL, and PBI.
Right now, those passengers have a variety of connection opportunities, the most direct being AA at LAX and DFW, CO at IAH, UA and (I believe) F9 at DEN, and US at PHX and CLT. There's also other possibilities as well across connecting airports further afield. too.
So let's say we're AA, and we're looking at putting a 737-800 on SAN-MIA, with either 148 or 160 seats. If we presume the 148-passenger version, to get a 70% load factor 41.4% of the total PDEW would have to looking to fly at the same time and be willing to arrive and/or depart the same South Florida airport in order to avoid having to connect. If we wanted an 80% load factor, the share of PDEW jumps to 47.4%.
(And that's presuming my assumption of 250 PDEW isn't overly generous...if we cut it to 225, the market share required to hit 70% or 80% LFs jumps to 46.0% and 52.6%, respectively.)
There are certain conditions that could possibly make this profitable:
* Enough of the existing market wants to leave at the same time
* Enough of the existing market wants to go to/from the same destination airport (keeping in mind the distance between PBI, FLL, and MIA)
* Adding service to MIA generates new connecting business across the MIA hub (not taking any current AA customers who connect mainly at DFW, and to a degree at ORD, JFK, LAX).
* The non-stop commands enough of a fare premium to make a relatively low LF (below 70%) acceptable. Unless this market has a lot more close-in/first class business travelers than the mix of mainly leisure and some military that I suspect it is, the potential fare premium is probably pretty limited.
That's a whole lot of "if"s.
And that's why I suspect AA hasn't added the service - they've looked at the market and determined they can't get enough passengers to make it worth devoting a plane to, especially since if they have a 737-800 available, it's entirely possible the best use for it at $100+/barrel oil is to use it to park a Mad Dog.
And given the above, it's even less likely that any other airline, not having a MIA hub on one end, would be willing to start the route as well. If there was enough demand to their Caribbean destinations, JetBlue could consider it, but they offer more connections from MCO than FLL, so if the route was dependent on connecting traffic, that would make more sense.