Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Are The Numbers On DL's MIA-LHR Correct?  
User currently offlineMAV88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 183 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8153 times:

Just curious if MIA's website numbers are correct. I was able to pull that for the month of April, there were 17,220 seats between MIA-LHR and 12,753 passengers.

26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32610 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8072 times:

Not the most accurate, but roughly correct. With most of the traffic Florida-originating, early flights in the first 2-3 weeks were around 90% LF MIA->LHR and around 60% LHR->MIA. But those figures usually are a bit off.


a.
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8016 times:

Needless to say. Miamia was/is doing much better than BOS. Out the gate they struggled but Boston is doing pretty good now, but that doesn't say much as this is the busiest time of year for European travel with everyone going on vacation.


What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinepanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4875 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7884 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MAV88 (Thread starter):
I was able to pull that for the month of April, there were 17,220 seats between MIA-LHR and 12,753 passengers.

That capacity number looks like it includes the tail end of March when the service first started. Strictly for the month of April (i.e., April 1 - 30), there should be a total of 14,700 seats (both ways) - 245 seats per flight.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 1):
With most of the traffic Florida-originating, early flights in the first 2-3 weeks were around 90% LF MIA->LHR and around 60% LHR->MIA

Actually, for April, most of the traffic was UK-originating (Easter break is a much bigger deal in the UK and Europe, than in the US), and LHR-MIA had a higher LF than MIA-LHR for April.
For LHR-MIA, except for some ligher loads the end of March when the service first started, April ran very high LFs during the first 23 days of April, and then it came down to mid-60s for the remainder.
For MIA-LHR, the first 9 days of April were light (half to less than half full), while the numbers were up in the 90s from April 10 on. The latter half of April was full due to the UK traffic that was returning to LHR after the Easter break.

For May (first three weeks at least) however, MIA-LHR was much stronger than LHR-MIA.


User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1020 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 7698 times:

Quoting panamair (Reply 3):

Were did you get these flight loads? Can you find similar numbers for the KL flight.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32610 posts, RR: 72
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 7584 times:

Quoting miaintl (Reply 4):

Quoting panamair (Reply 3):

Were did you get these flight loads? Can you find similar numbers for the KL flight.


KLM was just under 95%.

Quoting panamair (Reply 3):
Actually, for April, most of the traffic was UK-originating (Easter break is a much bigger deal in the UK and Europe, than in the US), and LHR-MIA had a higher LF than MIA-LHR for April.
For LHR-MIA, except for some ligher loads the end of March when the service first started, April ran very high LFs during the first 23 days of April, and then it came down to mid-60s for the remainder.
For MIA-LHR, the first 9 days of April were light (half to less than half full), while the numbers were up in the 90s from April 10 on. The latter half of April was full due to the UK traffic that was returning to LHR after the Easter break.

Thanks for the correction. A good start nonetheless at around -85% LF.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 2):

Needless to say. Miamia was/is doing much better than BOS. Out the gate they struggled but Boston is doing pretty good now, but that doesn't say much as this is the busiest time of year for European travel with everyone going on vacation.

CAM2:"Lightning coming out of that one." CAM1: "What?"

The true judge is definitely during off-peak times. Summer is easy to fill regardless, especially at the great prices DL has has.



a.
User currently onlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24863 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7334 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 1):
Not the most accurate, but roughly correct.

What source do you consider more accurate?


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6047 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7212 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 2):
Out the gate they struggled but Boston is doing pretty good now, but that doesn't say much as this is the busiest time of year for European travel with everyone going on vacation.

So good that didn't DL just drop the BOS-LHR they added (according to enlira's thread)



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7148 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 7):
So good that didn't DL just drop the BOS-LHR they added (according to enlira's thread)

They dropped a frequency. You also missed where I said I doesn't mean much as everyone in the states is heading to Europe for vacations. I guess a better word would have been "better".

Ultimately, they don't have the a/c that they would like to use. The original plan was to be 2X 764s until the first few 763s finish their flatbed mods then one of the frequencies was to be downgraded to a 763ER, with both eventually going to a 763 however that didn't work out because the suppliers couldn't keep up with a 764 and 763 line. Internally, they stated that now with the 764s complete, the first 763 will be going completed very soon. Not to mention TATL stats tanked due to over-capacity.

It's usually a combination of things that cause a route to fail and with BOS-LHR not doing so hot to start with, everything else only added fuel to the fire. Personally, I though double daily out of BOS was overkill.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11427 posts, RR: 61
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7095 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 8):
Ultimately, they don't have the a/c that they would like to use. The original plan was to be 2X 764s until the first few 763s finish their flatbed mods then one of the frequencies was to be downgraded to a 763ER, with both eventually going to a 763 however that didn't work out because the suppliers couldn't keep up with a 764 and 763 line. Internally, they stated that now with the 764s complete, the first 763 will be going completed very soon. Not to mention TATL stats tanked due to over-capacity.

Respectfully, from what has been described here, it doesn't sound like this route's problem was the aircraft. The problem was that the market is saturated and Delta is not able to fill the planes, at least not profitably, and is thus discounting and/or driving connections. If this is true - and I myself have no way of knowing if it is - then I don't think that bodes very well.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 8):
Personally, I though double daily out of BOS was overkill.

... as did I and many others.

The question now becomes whether Delta believes it is overkill, or is determined to force AA/BA to give up Heathrow slots no matter the cost. It appears that they have given up on the second frequency for the winter - I will be interested to see what that means for summer 2012.


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7034 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 9):
Respectfully, from what has been described here, it doesn't sound like this route's problem was the aircraft. The problem was that the market is saturated and Delta is not able to fill the planes, at least not profitably, and is thus discounting and/or driving connections. If this is true - and I myself have no way of knowing if it is - then I don't think that bodes very well.

Well, here was my angle on the whole thing and this is just my opinion. Many times airlines will come out and say routes were under-performing, etc. They didn't in this case but it's pretty obvious. Point being, we don't know unless we work for route planning/yeild management or are on the executive team; it's all speculation. Anyway, my feeling was that yes the route was doing terribly and although it did pick up on the back stretch, it was by and large due to the time of year and the large bucket of introductory fares that's still to beh had. That I don't dispute. To the flip side, from what i've been told by those that are in the know, DL was in fact willing to take a beating but it just didn't make sense in the end because the whole plan sort of fell through because of everything else stated. The a/c didn't kill the route, the route killed the route  but why try to put your name out there on a product that's not competative. You said it best below:

Quoting commavia (Reply 9):
... as did I and many others.

The question now becomes whether Delta believes it is overkill, or is determined to force AA/BA to give up Heathrow slots no matter the cost. It appears that they have given up on the second frequency for the winter - I will be interested to see what that means for summer 2012.

They knew it was overkill IMHO. We all know they couldn't transfer the slot so it's not like they went in to play a bait and switch game. Question is, what's their real angle with the 2 (arguably 3) slots. My other question is, how long are they allowed not to use the slot before the contract between BA breaks.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11427 posts, RR: 61
Reply 11, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7011 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 10):
They knew it was overkill IMHO. We all know they couldn't transfer the slot so it's not like they went in to play a bait and switch game. Question is, what's their real angle with the 2 (arguably 3) slots.

I don't disagree with the points you're making, although I frankly don't know why Delta ever even bothered going into this with the whole "it has to be 764s/lie-flat" thing to begin with. Frankly, I think they probably would have a better shot right now if they had just approached the whole thing from the start for what it realistically is: a steep climb to gain market share in an otherwise fairly well-served, already-dominated route. In that context, I think two daily 752s would have been a far more sensible start - I don't think the incremental new business Delta may think they're supposedly capturing by offering their 764 product is compensating for the glut of capacity those huge planes are putting into this already-crowded market.

To me, the most logical long-term solution would probably be either 1x 763 or 2x 752, but I think the idea of putting double-daily widebodies on this flight (as was the original plan) just seems a bit much to me.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 10):
My other question is, how long are they allowed not to use the slot before the contract between BA breaks.

I wonder how the regulatory agreement was structured. Does Delta have to operate the slots in consecutive seasons in order to hold them from AA/BA? If they do, then not requesting one of the slots for winter 2011/2012 basically means they've just forfeited that slot going forward. If, on the other hand, the use-it-or-lose-it stipulation of the agreement is based on a season-by-season basis, without a continuous use-it-or-lose-it provision, then Delta could conceivably turn the second BOS-LHR flight into a summer seasonal, with Delta taking the slot from AA/BA in the summer, and giving it back to them to use for each winter slot season.


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 6978 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 11):
I wonder how the regulatory agreement was structured. Does Delta have to operate the slots in consecutive seasons in order to hold them from AA/BA? If they do, then not requesting one of the slots for winter 2011/2012 basically means they've just forfeited that slot going forward. If, on the other hand, the use-it-or-lose-it stipulation of the agreement is based on a season-by-season basis, without a continuous use-it-or-lose-it provision, then Delta could conceivably turn the second BOS-LHR flight into a summer seasonal, with Delta taking the slot from AA/BA in the summer, and giving it back to them to use for each winter slot season.



This is what's not being discussed enough IMHO and what matters the most right now. Forget a/c type. This is what I really find interesting about the whole thing. I know the whole deal came up as a part of the ATI that they got. Now, not saying that AA/BA would even want to but are they allowed to sell these slot pairs or with the ATI agreement, they would have to forfeit them completely and they go up for auction or something? I also understand that if DL were to give them up, they would first have to made available to another carrier and if no one wants the BOS/MIA slots then AA/BA gets to use them in the future. My question is, was DL trying to get the slot pairs going only to offer BA/AA $$$ for them.

Again, the question really is, would this have been a possibility under the law/agreement.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11427 posts, RR: 61
Reply 13, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6922 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 12):
Now, not saying that AA/BA would even want to but are they allowed to sell these slot pairs or with the ATI agreement, they would have to forfeit them completely and they go up for auction or something?

AA/BA return ownership of the slots - Delta leases them at a "market competitive" rate.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 12):
I also understand that if DL were to give them up, they would first have to made available to another carrier and if no one wants the BOS/MIA slots then AA/BA gets to use them in the future.

If Delta releases the slots back to AA/BA, AA/BA get them unless another airline wants to fly BOS-LHR.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 12):
My question is, was DL trying to get the slot pairs going only to offer BA/AA $$$ for them.

Not sure what you mean. Delta has to pay for these slots - they're not free.


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6895 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 13):
Not sure what you mean. Delta has to pay for these slots - they're not free.



Yeah, I know Delta leases the slots from AA/BA (thus paying $$) but I mean buying them. Did DL jump on BOS/MIA only to make AA-BA a deal for them down the road. Is AA-BA even allowed to sell them?



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11427 posts, RR: 61
Reply 15, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6829 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 14):
Did DL jump on BOS/MIA only to make AA-BA a deal for them down the road.

I doubt Delta jumped into these markets/slots with that in mind, since if they did, they were deluding themselves. AA/BA are paying the small price they have to pay for the next few years in order to get their ATI/JV approved without route carve-outs, which is damaging to the underlying business case of the JV. They are merely going through the motions, upholding their end of their obligations under the regulatory framework, for precisely as long as they have to. But as soon as they no longer have to - for any reason, be it Delta's returning of the slot(s) and/or expiration of the entire requirement (I think it lasts for 5 or 10 years, can't remember) - they will happily bring these slots back into the fold and use them between AA/BA.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 14):
Is AA-BA even allowed to sell them?

I'm sure there is no legal or regulatory prohibition on them selling them to Delta, but I find it hard to believe that they ever would actually sell them.


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6802 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 15):
I'm sure there is no legal or regulatory prohibition on them selling them to Delta, but I find it hard to believe that they ever would actually sell them.



That I don't doubt for a second. I don't think they would but was curious if they were allowed to or because of the terms, they would have to offer them on lease to others first.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32610 posts, RR: 72
Reply 17, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6634 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 1):
Not the most accurate, but roughly correct.

What source do you consider more accurate?


A source that doesn't show certain airlines with load factors exceeding 100%.

The MIA published figures are roughly accurate, but far from spot on. If a flight is overbooked, and that passenger is stranded at the gate, or if they miss a connection, they still count as a "passenger."



a.
User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1020 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6556 times:

Mark, do you know if the KL flight was fuller from MIA or to MIA? Also when is peak season for MIA-AMS?

User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8212 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5493 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 9):
Respectfully, from what has been described here, it doesn't sound like this route's problem was the aircraft. The problem was that the market is saturated and Delta is not able to fill the planes, at least not profitably, and is thus discounting and/or driving connections.

Unfortunately for me, my unecdotal evidence is that for the first time in over 10 years my family is not flying to Europe this Summer because tickets are just too ridiculously high and I really can't justify it when we can travel at xmas instead for nearly half the price.


User currently offlinebhmdiversion From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 457 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5449 times:

From DLTerm for today:

260/03JUNMIALHR S/R-DL
J 002 C 002 D 001 I 001 S WL Z WL OK 002 OD WC
O WC
Y 006 B 005 M 005 H 004 Q 004 K 004 L 003 U 003
T 002 E 002 NK 006 ND 003 NP 001 NG 001 NM 001
N WC

CPT TOTALS C Y TTL
SHIP CPCTY 39 206 245
SEATS SOLD 37 208 245
--- --- ---
ACTUAL AVBL 2 -2 0 #>


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6047 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4838 times:

Quoting bhmdiversion (Reply 20):
From DLTerm for today:

260/03JUNMIALHR S/R-DL
J 002 C 002 D 001 I 001 S WL Z WL OK 002 OD WC
O WC
Y 006 B 005 M 005 H 004 Q 004 K 004 L 003 U 003
T 002 E 002 NK 006 ND 003 NP 001 NG 001 NM 001
N WC

CPT TOTALS C Y TTL
SHIP CPCTY 39 206 245
SEATS SOLD 37 208 245
--- --- ---
ACTUAL AVBL 2 -2 0 #>

I suspect this will be a full flight thru the summer....what the yields are like and what the loads will look like in Nov are another matter.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinewilld From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4764 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 21):
I suspect this will be a full flight thru the summer....what the yields are like and what the loads will look like in Nov are another matter.

Don't forget that for VS their most busy and high yielding time of the year for LHR-MIA is actually the winter. This is because of snowbirds from the UK and also due to it being peak time for cruises for the more senior she bracket who tend to be the majority of the UK cruise market. VS crew often comment that MIA can be quieter in the summer, where as MCO their other Florids destination is the exact opposite.


User currently offlineMAV88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 183 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4671 times:

Quoting willd (Reply 22):
Quoting yellowtail (Reply 21):
I suspect this will be a full flight thru the summer....what the yields are like and what the loads will look like in Nov are another matter.

Don't forget that for VS their most busy and high yielding time of the year for LHR-MIA is actually the winter. This is because of snowbirds from the UK and also due to it being peak time for cruises for the more senior she bracket who tend to be the majority of the UK cruise market. VS crew often comment that MIA can be quieter in the summer, where as MCO their other Florids destination is the exact opposite.

Do a lot of European carriers have cruise contracts that send passengers through MIA on their way to Port of Miami?


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 24, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4537 times:

Quoting MAV88 (Reply 23):
Do a lot of European carriers have cruise contracts that send passengers through MIA on their way to Port of Miami?

KL is pretty heavy in that game from what I understand, along with many others.



What gets measured gets done.
25 Viscount724 : Thanks, but I was wondering what source lacks those problems?
26 willd : VS seem to and often (couple times a year) fly special cruise charters to both MSY and GRU. Also VS sister company, Virgin Holidays runs Virgin Holid
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
DL/NW LHR-DTW-LHR = 767-400? posted Thu Sep 24 2009 06:44:36 by BHXDTW
Question About NW/DL From LHR To DTW posted Tue May 5 2009 06:01:54 by Gpbcroppers63
DL MIA Cancellations Today posted Sun Mar 1 2009 09:44:19 by OB1504
AA Flight 56 MIA-LHR posted Mon Feb 16 2009 16:09:00 by N62NA
DL MIA Bound Flight Diverted To SUA Or FPR Today? posted Tue Jul 15 2008 17:52:49 by John
DL To LHR, Anyone Get A Pic? posted Sat Mar 29 2008 20:03:18 by AV8AJET
AA Possibly Starting MIA-LHR Daylight Flight posted Tue Jul 24 2007 22:41:07 by N62NA
Virgin 6 MIA-LHR Diverted To BOS! posted Sun Dec 17 2006 05:51:09 by HighFlyer9790
Daytime Flight MIA-LHR posted Mon Feb 20 2006 05:12:25 by N62NA
BA: Third Daily MIA-LHR posted Tue Jul 5 2005 03:44:14 by MAH4546