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AirInsight; Expected Paris Order Breakdown  
User currently offlinejoecanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 6811 times:

AirInsight is offering their predictions of what sales they expect from the major airframe and engine vendors at the Paris Airshow. They expect the most noise to come from the NEO. Check it out;


http://airinsight.com/2011/06/04/outlook-for-paris-air-show/#more-1593

Quote:
The big news at air shows are orders for new aircraft.

Forget the drivel that Airbus “saves” up orders for the show and Boeing doesn’t. Customers drive when the announcements are made, and many like the limelight of air shows, and some don’t. Boeing has announced many orders at air shows that were “Unidentified” on the order books.



What the...?
29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12598 posts, RR: 34
Reply 1, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6683 times:

Good, interesting article; obviously, at this stage, there is a limit to what anyone outside Airbus, Boeing and the prospective customers can know; I think there are a lot of interesting points here.

The expectation of a new 747-8 order is one of them; I would be interested in knowing who they mean!

As for the A350/787 competition, although I know that AF/KL are close to making a major order, I would have expected TG and TK to be closer.

I wasn't even aware of HK Airlines being a prospective A380 customer; I know QR is almost 100% likely to order more A380s at Paris, while EK will want to have a major order to announce at Dubai in November - hardly much point in either Airbus or Boeing going there if they don't! If they do order A380s, I would expect them to be launch customer for the -900, but that's another day's debate.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6443 posts, RR: 34
Reply 2, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6526 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Good, interesting article; obviously, at this stage, there is a limit to what anyone outside Airbus, Boeing and the prospective customers can know; I think there are a lot of interesting points here.

I am surprised at how some of their analysis is just "filler", considering that they think of themselves of industry experts.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12970 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6381 times:

I found some of the RR stuff to be interesting:

Quote:

We expect a major announcement from Rolls at the Air Show, however; we believe Rolls is going to announce a larger version of the Trent XWB for the A350-1000, with an incremental thrust increase of perhaps 5,000 lbs.

The disconcerting element for Rolls is the loss of the narrow-body market, which they participated in through IAE and the V2500, replaced by the GTF for neo. The good news for IAE is that it appears to be the engine of choice for the Brazilian KC-390 tanker developed by Embraer.

I thought Airbus was all-good on the thrust for the A350-1000?



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 4, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6355 times:

Could anybody educate me on how much commonality there is to be expected between 777s and 787s and A330s/A340s and A350s?

I'd like to see LH go for the A350. They won't use either the 748 nor the A380 out of MUC, but they need an A346 sized replacement for that hub. LH smallest widebody as of now is the A330-300, which suggests something smaller (788) isn't needed. The same can be said about LX and SN. DE and OS 763s are a bit smaller than the smallest A350 variant, but maybe until the arrival of the A350s has come, demand will have grown enough to support the capacity growth.

Since we're talking about the introduction of a new fleet type altogether though, LH will most probably go for a dual fleet. The planes are just too new to put all your eggs into one basket and a mix of 788/789 and A359/A351, combined with the 748/A388 would offer them crazy flexibility. They are in no rush to order, and will with certainty not order either type at this year's LBG, but they also don't have the time to wait for the A350 to enter service. A dual fleet is a given.

And I see the same happening at KL/AF, with a slight chance of them going 787 only. The 787-800 and -900 could perfectly replace all A330s, A340s, 772s and MD11s. The 777-300ER could round up the fleet for the larger markets with A388s on their thickest routes. However, AF/KL don't seem to ''share'' aircraft very much. KL's short haul fleet is all 737 (except Cityhoppers), whereas AF is all A320. KLM won't use any A380s through AF, even though there are routes they could fill them on. Don't know what exactly the rationale behind that is, but following that logic I could see AF opt for the A350s and KL for the 787s. KL is smaller than AF, Airbus is a French product, KL has announced its future long haul fleet will comprise of 777s (Boeings) only, AF already operates the A388.

AF's A332 and 772s are all less than 10 years old. Their A343s are between 10-19 years old and virtually unsellable. They'll stick around till death does them apart. KL's 772/A332 are really young and they've even ordered A333s recently. They're not in a rush to order. If they're set on the 787s already, they might order them as early as this year's Paris. But that begs the question why they haven't done that already, if they want the 787 for sure? I say, they should wait for the 787 to enter service and re-assess their fleet planning based on real life figures.

Orders I see forthcoming are, consistent with airinsights, predominantly A320NEO orders. Virtually any current A320NEO operator could be a potential customer, but since they already have existing fleets of A320s, they're in a better position to wait this thing out. Most of them aren't in need of complete fleet replacements and buying small to medium quantities for future fleet growth is nothing you'd have to order now. I'm sure a few of those orders (VX, QR, TK, MU) will be among them, but my best bet is on start up airlines who have to build their future around one aircraft type and who can't afford to wait for future developments. They have to commit to one aircraft type now and if you've got a substantial order to place, you might as well go for the best available product in the market place. Look out for Indian, South East Asian and possibly Chinese airlines. LA, JJ and AV are all possible candidates as well, though probably a little further down the line. AV just recently added A318s to their fleet. Efficiency can't be their #1 concern at the moment.

SA)">DL could probably make great use of the A320NEO, but SA)">DL will always be a devoted Boeing airline in my eyes. US has no money and SA)">UA will follow SA)">CO's dictate. I expect them to buy 50-60 A320NEOs at some point, but they won't base their future fleet planning around them. Unfortunately, I think.

To me, it will be most interesting to see if the A380 has found a new home. JJ is too apprehensive, SA not ready yet. I find a TK announcement to be likely and I'd be thrilled to see an IB order. But nothing would beat seeing ANA to finally come to their senses and say herro to a 15 + 5 A388 order.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6302 times:

Quoting something (Reply 4):
LA, JJ and AV are all possible candidates as well, though probably a little further down the line.

LA already has multiple orders for short-haul a/c. LA has 30 Airbus A320 family aircraft to be delivered between 2011 and 2016; plus 50 Airbus A320 family aircraft to be delivered between 2012 and 2016.

Quoting something (Reply 4):
AV just recently added A318s to their fleet. Efficiency can't be their #1 concern at the moment.

That's correct, also AV is taking all 15 of LA's A318 a/c as LA phases them out of the fleet.

Quoting something (Reply 4):
A380 has found a new home. JJ is too apprehensive

Certain carriers view the A380 as not being a versatile a/c that fits their respective missions. Where will these carriers deploy the A380s during periods of crises when certain carriers will need to cut capacity significantly?


User currently offlineQFA787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 5345 times:

They don't even mention the 777 orders as a possibility for Boeing. The way this has been selling I wouldn't at all be surprised to see some 777 activity at Le Bourget.

User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 5034 times:

This enhanced range might open the possibility for the A35K as simple further stretch@reduced range.

User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4166 posts, RR: 36
Reply 8, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4793 times:

Garuda appears to be placing a narrowbody order for 25+25 frames at Paris. Boeing´s to loose:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-50-narrowbodies-at-paris-air.html



Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 61
Reply 9, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4545 times:

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 8):
Garuda appears to be placing a narrowbody order for 25+25 frames at Paris. Boeing´s to loose:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles....html

More 738s and possibly some 739ERs. Nailed on. Would be a massive shock if it was anything else.

I'm expecting some more 77Ws for CX and EY, some for Hainan.

A380s for QR and Hainan, and possibly LH as well. VN will firm theirs.

As for A350 and 787 - who knows? This one is well and truly up in the air. I think we're due a few surprises!



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12598 posts, RR: 34
Reply 10, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4341 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 9):
As for A350 and 787 - who knows? This one is well and truly up in the air. I think we're due a few surprises!

Certainly hope so!

Thai and Turkish for the A350 and/or 787, possibly even AF/KL if we're lucky.


User currently offlineQFA787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4093 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 9):
More 738s and possibly some 739ERs. Nailed on. Would be a massive shock if it was anything else.

I'm expecting some more 77Ws for CX and EY, some for Hainan.

A380s for QR and Hainan, and possibly LH as well. VN will firm theirs.

As for A350 and 787 - who knows? This one is well and truly up in the air. I think we're due a few surprises!

Very well summarised. But the main action will be the 320Neo. They seem to be lining up commitments from everywhere.


User currently offlinePanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 4217 posts, RR: 89
Reply 12, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 3943 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
COMMUNITY MANAGER

On the widebody front we will also likely see Jet Airways order more A330s according to reports today from Singapore.


Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1188 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3784 times:

Quoting QFA787380 (Reply 11):
But the main action will be the 320Neo. They seem to be lining up commitments from everywhere.

Indeed!
Even if less than half of the rumored orders materialises then NEO is a huge success.
Will be interesting to see what Boeing will do if the NEO has 500+ orders after the airshow.


User currently offlineQFA787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3430 times:

Quoting Chiad (Reply 13):
Indeed!
Even if less than half of the rumored orders materialises then NEO is a huge success.
Will be interesting to see what Boeing will do if the NEO has 500+ orders after the airshow.

Not sure if they have to do much as this is a long term decision for them involving many thousands of aircraft over quite a few decades. They may have to lose some orders at the start to get things right in the future. As long as they give and stick to a timeline for that decsion I'm not too concerned. If big 737NG customers start moving en masse to the neo, then it's time to get worried.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8513 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3391 times:
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Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 9):
I'm expecting some more 77Ws for CX and EY, some for Hainan

Would love to see more 777-300ER orders from AA and BA. Maye Qantas will order 777's too, but I doubt that will happen. Then I never saw Malaysia joining OneWorld, so stranger things have happened.


User currently offlineTeamInTheSky From United States of America, joined Apr 2011, 538 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3382 times:

Great article, thanks. I do not know about the rest of you, but I will still be surprised to see some 748i orders. My personal hope is for BA or some other large European carrier to order some, although I know that won't happen.

I wonder which Asian carriers might order some 748i's. Air China has already said they were going to purchase 5 correct? They just haven't firmed up the order. I really don't see MU or CZ ordering any. I don't see JL or NH ordering any either. Maybe MH? It will be interesting to see.



Since 2010: DL, KL, AF, WX, IG, FR , FL, U2, AK, BA, OK, UX, VS, VN, K6, AT, US, AY, BE, EI, LG, AZ, 9W, SG
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3289 times:
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From the OP link:
"We understand that a major order from ANI in Indonesia is near completion, which would provide additional momentum to the MRJ program. With the Trans States deal finalized, the MRJ, like the CSeries, needs to build backlog. With the GTF now selected by Airbus, customers that were initially skeptical of the GTF are now seriously considering the product as initial entry into service is within 2 years."

  

Go GTF!

I'll be very curious as to what QR orders. I was highly amused by:
"On the other hand, Akbar Al-Baker is so unpredictable that this might not happen, either. You can never tell with him–he’s alternatively embarrassed Boeing, Airbus and Bombardier. We just don’t know how to predict Qatar."   

Quoting QFA787380 (Reply 14):
If big 737NG customers start moving en masse to the neo, then it's time to get worried.

At that point it would be too late. If DL orders the NEO, then expect US to order the A321NEO to replace the 752...

Airbus only needs to sell 500 A320NEO to make the project worthwhile. If Boeing does a phenominal replacement, nothing stops Airbus from ending the A320NEO life early by replacing it. Heck, 3 to 5 years of production would make it a heck of a money maker. Note: I do not expect a replacement to be possible befor 2022.

All aircraft have finite sales lives. Airbus, with the A320NEO and A321NEO, has an excellent chance of making great money off the program. Even if the A320NEO is replaced early (early being 2022). So while Boeing has time... Airbus has bought themselves far more.

To think the A320NEO project has been going, on and off, for over a decade...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineQFA787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 3272 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
At that point it would be too late. If DL orders the NEO, then expect US to order the A321NEO to replace the 752...

Not necessarily but it wouldn't be good. Order commitmentsa are made to be broken and if airlines order the Neo and Boeing comes up with a superior alternative in an acceptable timeframe, expect neo orders to be cancelled. Airlines are likely to have a "bit each way" attitude to the cat-and-mouse game.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
I'll be very curious as to what QR orders. I was highly amused by:

One presumes 380/Neo/C-Series but as QR are showcasing their 77L at Le Bourget, I wouldn't be surprised to see some top-up 777 orders or even exercising some of their 60 787 options.


User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1385 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 3141 times:

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 12):
we will also likely see Jet Airways order more A330s according to reports today from Singapore.

According to the Economic Times:
"Jet Airways will buy 10 Airbus A330s worth $2.5 billion for its international plans"

GoAir also mentioned again:
"GoAir, the smallest budget airline in the country, will place a minimum order for 50 A320s worth $4 billion"

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...paris-show/articleshow/8783385.cms


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 3083 times:
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Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 12):
On the widebody front we will also likely see Jet Airways order more A330s according to reports today from Singapore.

That sounds like a wise top off order for Jet. Which version? A332 or A333? I could see either with this size of order, but I would suspect the A333.

Quoting QFA787380 (Reply 18):
I wouldn't be surprised

Nothing would surprise me with QR. 777, A380, A320, C-series, A330, 787...
Seriously, Al Bakar is quite the character and could pull about any surprise in an order. Ok, one thing would surprise me, if QR didn't order any aircraft this year.  
Quoting flood (Reply 19):
"GoAir, the smallest budget airline in the country, will place a minimum order for 50 A320s worth $4 billion"

Who? Ok, no offense intended, but where are they getting the financing?

And why wasn't Bombardier talking to them?  

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1385 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 3056 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 20):
Who? Ok, no offense intended, but where are they getting the financing?

They're a young Indian LCC with ~6% market share and are part of the Wadia Group:
http://www.wadiagroup.com/

I believe they turned their first profit last year and will be going public to help fund the new aircraft.


User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 22, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 2980 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 20):
Nothing would surprise me with QR. 777, A380, A320, C-series, A330, 787...

50 A320NEO firm + 50 options
10-20 A380 options
and 20+20 or so CSeries. Depending on how many landing rights in Canada they'll get.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 23, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2898 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 20):
And why wasn't Bombardier talking to them?

If you have your heart set on a 320, a CSeries just won't do. The 319 or 73G are a different story...



What the...?
User currently offlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1164 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2846 times:

Air India plans to take 10 A330 and 16 A320 on lease.

Could they be among the orders ALG talked about?

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...paris-show/articleshow/8783385.cms



SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
25 HB-IWC : Absolutely not Boeing's to lose seeing as how Garuda's CEO has publicly stated that the order will not necessarily be for more B738s. This order is f
26 flythere : Some rumour on pilot forum that those CX order would be 77F instead of the widely anticipated 77W.
27 Post contains links N14AZ : Maybe it has been reported before or somewhere else but Boeing's regional sales manager Aldo Basile reports about an order of 57 (!!!) planes from Tur
28 qfa787380 : I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 77W/77F combined CX order at Le Bourget.
29 sirtoby : This is a translation error: there are 57 unfilled orders from Turkish carriers.
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