MI5Flyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 65 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days ago) and read 1140 times:
I think WN service at TLH is prohibited by the agreement WN has with ECP. In fact service at the other NW FL airports is also restricted if I remember correctly the limit is something like 109 miles...maybe just enough to catch PNS.
srbmod From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 16896 posts, RR: 51 Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days ago) and read 1126 times:
FL previously served TLH as part of the limited intra-Florida routes they had (at one point they put the ZW operated JetConnect operation on those routes.).
I really do not think TLH is on WN's radar at all. Just because a city is a state's capital, that doesn't necessarily means it should have a ton of airline service. One thing to remember is that Atlanta has long been a significant transportation hub, even before it became the state capital of Georgia in 1868. It's all about location. This is why MIA is such a significant transportation hub for the state of Florida.
PI767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days ago) and read 1113 times:
So Tallahassee is the capital of Florida. Big deal. I mean...Southwest doesnt serve Baton Rouge yet it is the state capital and Louisiana borders Texas...home of some of Southwest's largest cities. It doesn't serve the capital of South Carolina, despite having a small presence in Charleston and Greenville. It doesn't serve Lincoln even though Southwest and AirTran both serve Omaha. State capital in states served by or states bordering large WN or FL operations means nothing.
As far as ECP, the agreement between St. Joe and Southwest states:
"Southwest has agreed that it will not commence air service to any airport within 80 statute miles of the new airport during the term of the agreement. In the event Southwest starts service to any airport that is more than 80 statute miles but within 120 statute miles from the new airport during the term, Southwest and St. Joe will either negotiate a modification to the terms of the agreement to accommodate the impact of such service or the minimum revenues used in the annual break even calculations under the agreement will automatically be increased by 10%. In such event, Southwest has agreed that the air service to the new airport in Bay County would not be diminished."
TLH is 101 miles from ECP according to google. So, yes, Southwest COULD go there with further negotations. So far, St. Joe has not had to pay Southwest for their service. That, to me, is a good sign that Southwest is going well there. It's not a hugely populated area. It's no Chicago or Dallas or Denver.....so perhaps Southwest would see it as cannibalizing its ECP service (which has guaranteed profits) if they head to TLH.
As far as your route predictions, I could totally see 3x to ATL, 3x to MCO and 3x to TPA. Perhaps even 1x or 2x to HOU or even 1x or 2x to BNA. Who knows. Southwest will definitely know the market stats if and when they choose to fly to TLH.
However, WN has A LOT on their plate right now. They have to get through the process of integrating former FL cities into their network, readjusting flight schedules, deciding which cities to close, etc.... I think it will be a while before WN opens any new cities (including TLH.)
MI5Flyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 65 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days ago) and read 991 times:
Looks like TLH is 86 miles from ECP as the crow flies. PNS is 83 miles. This puts both of these airports in the "negotiate" category if WN wanted to start service. VPS is 44 miles away and is apparently excluded. Based on the regional politics surrounding the new airport construction I don't think that was by accident.
skymiler From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 470 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 936 times:
As a TLH resident and very frequent user of the airport, I can say with some certainty that WN will not be here for a long time. I have discussed it with local groups (such as the Chamber of Commerce) and tried to explain some of the real economic issues surrounding the airport and airline industires.
The subject comes up every now and then, but there is simply not the population base in the catchment area that WN requires, plus there is dilution from ECP and JAX.
The usual comment is that "fares are too high" from TLH, but I do not find them so bad -- if you SHOP!!! The thought is that WN would cause all fares to drop, but this is not necessarily true.
Another factor that impacts fares is that there are a lot of lawyers and lobbyists who will drop in for a day or 2 at any fare (in many cases they can pass the costs on) and while those passengers are willing to pay higher fares for convenience, the airlines are willing to sell them -- and so they should!
The one issue (and I suspect that I may get raked a bit for this one) is that if ASA can not get its act together as it has about 60% of the flights between TLH and ATL then there will be competition. ASA has a very poor on-time record in TLH and I require my staff to "book away" from them whenever possible.