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AirTran Mainline To MKE-DSM/CAK  
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6962 times:

The six Skywest markets operating as FL* appear to be ending after labor day, as discussed eleswhere. The flights have still been out for sale on the AirTran site, but as of late they have had all inventory zeroed out, or discount fares zeroed out, etc.

Today, MKE-IND, MKE-OMA, and MKE-PIT are all gone. But two markets...MKE-DSM and MKE-CAK...show mainline 717 flights starting after labor day when the CRJ's go. 2x/day each.

Des Moines 717 are pretty much the same schedule as the CRJ's ran until recently...about 6:00am and noon eastbound, and about 10:30am and 8:30pm westbound. There are connections to-from BOS / LGA / DCA, Atlanta, and MCO / TPA. But those are the connections they have already had, when the Skywest flights only averaged around 28-29 pax per flight.

Akron 771 flights are on a somewhat different schedule than today. There's one flight each direction which doevetails pretty well with flights to LAX / LAS / SFO / SEA, but the other flight connections to just about nothing. However both flights both directions operate 1-stop to MSP. With no connection opportunities, they will probbaly need to rely very heavily on CAK-MSP 1-stop traffic.

When Skywest started the MKE operation, it was 3x/day to all six cities. Both Des Moines and Akron where quickly cut back to 2x/day because of low loads. It's quite a surprise to see these as the two cities being backfilled with mainline, while other cities which continued to support 3x/day CRJ not being backfilled.

Milwaukee-Akron was upgraded back to 3x/day a few weeks ago, but that 3rd flight was abruptly pulled from the schedule yesterday (effective 7/6), apparently due to low loads. So if they are pulling the 3rd Akron CRJ trip so suddenly, it seems odd that starting in fall the market will go from 100 seats to 234 seats.

It will be interesting to see how things do.

The 6th market...MKE-STL...still shows 2x/day on the CRJ through mid December, but with only full-coach fares. Since it was not pulled outright like PIT, IND and OMA, maybe there's something still in the works for that market.

74 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebcoz From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6819 times:

Maybe I'm way off base here, but....DSM and CAK are the only two markets in the MKE FL/OO deal that aren't currently served by WN. Just food for thought...

bcoz


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6606 posts, RR: 24
Reply 2, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6803 times:

Quoting bcoz (Reply 1):

Maybe I'm way off base here, but....DSM and CAK are the only two markets in the MKE FL/OO deal that aren't currently served by WN. Just food for thought...

I think that's the logic behind it.


User currently offlinemke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6786 times:

I'm a little surprised they're keeping CAK, I thought it would've been IND since I believe FL already ran a 717 on that route before Skywest took over.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
The 6th market...MKE-STL...still shows 2x/day on the CRJ through mid December, but with only full-coach fares. Since it was not pulled outright like PIT, IND and OMA, maybe there's something still in the works for that market.

If I had to guess, I'd say WN is going to go out of their way and start STL-MKE sometime soon.



Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
User currently offlinebcoz From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6751 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 3):
If I had to guess, I'd say WN is going to go out of their way and start STL-MKE sometime soon.

I would have to think that would be at the expense of MKE-MCI on WN. I just can't see WN running MKE to both markets before SOC with FL.... and maybe even after. MCI and STL serve the same purpose for MKE in the WN network...

bcoz


User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1540 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 6682 times:

I expect both these routes to simply move to MDW by next summer.


717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlinemke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 6555 times:

Quoting bcoz (Reply 4):
I would have to think that would be at the expense of MKE-MCI on WN.

Right now WN is flying MKE-MCI 2x daily so I don't see why they can't at least move one of those flights over to STL.



Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Reply 7, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6474 times:

Quoting bcoz (Reply 4):
I would have to think that would be at the expense of MKE-MCI on WN. I just can't see WN running MKE to both markets before SOC with FL.... and maybe even after. MCI and STL serve the same purpose for MKE in the WN network...

They serve the same purpose from OKC, but they both still exist. Pretty common out here and not a shock they would do both MCI and STL.


User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7263 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6466 times:
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Yet another reason we won't see B6 in MKE for a while.   

User currently offlinebcoz From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6462 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 6):
Right now WN is flying MKE-MCI 2x daily so I don't see why they can't at least move one of those flights over to STL.

They certainly COULD do both, but I just don't see it... at least not until a comprehensive integration plan is completed. 1X to both cities isn't going to give business travelers much flexibility/choice. You'd be going up against F9 with 3x to STL and 4x to MCI.

Now, I'm not saying that STL isn't a good option for WN from MKE... I'm just saying that, right now, I don't think both MCI and STL together are good options.

But, again... that's just one man's opinion!

BTW, mke717spotter, really enjoy your trip reports! Good luck at U of A!

bcoz


User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1304 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6421 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 3):
I thought it would've been IND since I believe FL already ran a 717 on that route before Skywest took over.

IND doesn't perform very well for FL. They couldn't make IND-LGA/BWI/LAX/SFO work and they can only make LAS work in the summer. IND-MKE on a 717 didn't do well off the bat which is why it was reduced to CRJs when that became an option.


User currently offlinetimberwolf24 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 575 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6342 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 5):
I expect both these routes to simply move to MDW by next summer.

     



Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Reply 12, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6309 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 5):
I expect both these routes to simply move to MDW by next summer.

You know, that's very possible. With FL and WN not integrated in any way at this point, it does not make sense to fly DSM-MDW or CAK-MDW with AirTran aircraft. And while they could put WN 737's into Des Moines or Akron to fly to Midway, the cost and effort to add WN into an existing FL city for a short time before integration is probably not worth it. Or the 737 is too big. So perhaps they are keeping a presence in the DSM-east flow and a CAK-west flow for the gap between the end of Skywest and the start of WN/FL integration.

I'm still skeptical that either route will fill a lot of seats, but we shall see.


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6559 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6271 times:

There will also be a connection offered between DSM and MSY for the 8 people a day in each direction who travel that route. 

User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1540 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6128 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 12):
I'm still skeptical that either route will fill a lot of seats, but we shall see.

I'm with you. I'll be surprised if either fills over 50%.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6124 posts, RR: 23
Reply 15, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6051 times:

Quoting bcoz (Reply 1):

This may bold well for CAK and that WN will keep CAK, as many people have questioned the future. I myself and very happy to see this.



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Reply 16, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5975 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 13):
There will also be a connection offered between DSM and MSY for the 8 people a day in each direction who travel that route.

Ahh...I didn't happen to hit one of the days MKE-MSY operates. It's Friday/Saturday/Sunday from 10/7 to 11/7. Then when MKE-MSY is planned to go back to daily on 11/7, the southbound connection doesn't work. But maybe there will be some tweaking.


User currently offlinekcrwflyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3811 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5688 times:

Looks like FL is just keeping DSM in the system.... CAK I don't understand one bit.

User currently offlineSMPPLNOHoW2FLY From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 72 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5582 times:

Will DL or UA respond by putting more FC on MSP and ORD?


The beginning is the end is the beginning
User currently offlinekcrwflyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3811 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5479 times:

Quoting SMPPLNOHoW2FLY (Reply 18):
Will DL or UA respond by putting more FC on MSP and ORD?

No. Neither care about MKE.


User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2001 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5256 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 12):
I'm still skeptical that either route will fill a lot of seats, but we shall see.

While I'm skeptical, if there's an airport that can pull this off it will be CAK. Look at what they went from - they were announced at 3x daily with just 3 turns which really didn't work out that well. Are you sure that 3rd flight was pulled because of low loads or was it because Skywest needed that airplane elsewhere? I've heard they are very tight on the CRJs for this operation so maybe it was just pulled because they couldn't swing it operationally. Also, according to your latest analsys, CAK was the top (or one of the top) cities from MKE in terms of load factor (I know LF doesn't mean squat). I would look for it but I'm on vacay and I will do it later when I have more time. Also, I looked at CAK's O/D a short time ago and I remember them making $2500 per flight one way in just O/D alone. They also were the top carrier from CAK to MSP. CAK has a very loyal following over there and while it's not ideal to have 717s flying this route, it's better then not.

Oh..and I agree, I think CAK-MDW will be flown at least 2x daily maybe even 3x daily.


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2895 posts, RR: 30
Reply 21, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5045 times:

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 20):
While I'm skeptical, if there's an airport that can pull this off it will be CAK. Look at what they went from - they were announced at 3x daily with just 3 turns which really didn't work out that well. Are you sure that 3rd flight was pulled because of low loads or was it because Skywest needed that airplane elsewhere? I've heard they are very tight on the CRJs for this operation so maybe it was just pulled because they couldn't swing it operationally.

The fleet is staying the same...three aircraft...before and after the July reduction of MKE-CAK. The 17:45 MKE-CAK-MKE is the one being pulled, and that aircraft will sit idle from 16:59 when it comes in from Omaha, until 21:26 when it departs for Omaha again.

From what I've heard, that third MKE-CAK-MKE flight has been weak. The issue is that Milwaukee-Akron relies a lot on connectivity, and that flight connects very poorly. The 17:45 MKE-CAK departure leaves too early to catch connections from the west coast. And the return flight from Akron at 20:27 arrives Milwaukee just before 21:00, meaning it's too late to connect westbound to anything except Omaha. I think they added this in the hopes of getting a lot of local Milwaukee business traffic gong to/from Akron/Youngstown/Cleveland, but it hasn't done so well. So that's why they are going back down to 2x.

The schedule for connectinos between Akron and Minneapolis have been somewhat hit and miss since Skywest started -- sometimes good connections, sometimes not. With the upcoming 717 thru service, they might build CAK-MSP traffic up compared to what they already get. From Q3 2010 it appears AirTran carried about 10 passengers between Akron and Minneapolis each way per day, which was about 41% of the total market. But if they promote this new, better service and draw passengers who usually use CLE or PIT, that could grow. Might not be enough fortification to keep CAK-MKE-MSP, but it might make CAK-MDW-MSP do better if that's what ultimately happens.


User currently offlineWABENNER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 4311 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 5):
I expect both these routes to simply move to MDW by next summer.

MDW-DSM should perform well for WN.


User currently offlineSkedGuy From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 135 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4174 times:
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Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 17):
Looks like FL is just keeping DSM in the system.... CAK I don't understand one bit.

Then you're uninformed. A simple review of trended DOT OD1B data for CAK reveals that the airport shifts considerable market share from CLE onto routes where FL flies nonstop -- even against WN in CLE. CAK is a strong market in the FL system, and I expect that it will continue to thrive post-merger. The NE Ohio region can support a burgeoning WN at CAK, as well as the existing franchise at CLE, plus or minus a few tweaks.


User currently offlinedbo861 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 886 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (3 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4120 times:

Quoting WABENNER (Reply 22):
MDW-DSM should perform well for WN.

Agreed. I'm hoping this is an indication that WN will keep DSM after the merger. Hopefully we'll get more details soon.


25 kcrwflyer : Actually, I know all about CAK, FL's success there, and the airports great marketing which allowed FL to grow into what it is there. I'm far from uni
26 Post contains images SurfandSnow : Great news for CAK and DSM! It looks like WN is very committed to these markets, even if it means eating losses on these routes for a short period unt
27 evanbu : I agree, look at last months inflight magazine for WN. It was explaining how WN has gotten to where they're at. They specifically mention that the ne
28 Post contains images OzarkD9S : Well this Polly Positive could also see: DSM-DEN x 2 DSM-ATL x 2 DSM-TPA x 1
29 FlyPNS1 : I think DSM has a good chance in WN's system. There are plenty of other markets that are smaller and have survived for many years in WN's system. DSM
30 WABENNER : I think DSM-DEN would come before DSM-PHX. WN seems focused on growing DEN over PHX recently. So: DSM-MDW 3x DSM-DEN 2x DSM-LAS or PHX 1x DEN is a be
31 Post contains links and images LoneStarMike : I think you're right. Several of the smaller cities served by WN are situated midway between larger markets where WN has at least a few nonstops. So
32 enilria : Both routes will be awful. The only reason they are doing this is because they made a commitment to continue all the FL routes/cities for a period of
33 dbo861 : I was looking up Airtran tickets out of DSM this fall and they are significantly more expensive than other airlines. I looked up tickets to BOS, LGA,
34 splitterz : The route was reduced because OO pulled a plane from FL dedicated service. Had nothing to with loads for any city.
35 phllax : The DSM route is probably being kept to increase connectivity, and if they make it one-stop to/from either BOS/LGA/DCA they will appear before connect
36 enilria : OTOH, this is Skywest at-risk flying so if it was making money they wouldn't be so eager to pull planes in Summer. That is the second plane to be pul
37 knope2001 : If this is motivation at all, then why when there are six FL* markets to potentially backfill, do they pick one of six with no Frontier MKE flights a
38 joeljack : Could it be that the CAK and DSM flights were loaded through Airtran because WN doesn't serve those cities yet and WN is going to load MKE to PIT/OMA
39 enilria : We don't know if WN mainline is going into any of those. I think it is interesting that WN does not operate to the two "announced".
40 enilria : If WN puts mainline on the other routes (which they could do because in the Fall they have a bunch of extra airplanes), it will really hurt F9 flying
41 knope2001 : Actually, the reduction in aircraft (from 4 to 3) is not affecting Akron. That fleet reduction already happened June 1, and it did mean one less flig
42 mariner : I agree with that, but I have a huge admiration for what Southwest can do. If they can make money on those routes, good luck to them. I suspect we ar
43 Post contains links knope2001 : WN adding MKE-STL http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Southw...and-prnews-663415233.html?x=0&.v=1 MKE-DSM and MKE-CAK announced (FL metal) MKE-STL annou
44 Post contains links Atrude777 : Confirmed, Southwest will be adding MKE-STL, 2 daily, and 1 Daily MKE-DEN, in addition to Air Tran adding mainline to the already mentioned MKE-DSM/CA
45 Cubsrule : Yup, and often two. AA and YX were historically able to get astronomical yields (~$1/mile) and pretty good loads; with much lower fares and some conn
46 Post contains images mke717spotter : Excellent news, and hey, one of my predictions actually came true for once! But does this mean that MCI might get reduced or cut sometime soon as oth
47 bcoz : And I assume no other cuts in WN service at MKE (i.e. MCI stays 2x)? I stand corrected. I was wrong. bcoz
48 dbo861 : Airfares have come down significantly..inline with other airlines. They must have been waiting to make the formal announcement
49 WABENNER : Problem with your analysis is that all these markets are unstimulated. WN would stimulate them and DSM is far enough from Chicago that low fares to M
50 Post contains images SurfandSnow : Very bold move indeed. I am guessing that they'll try to get MDW-DSM and MDW-CAK online as soon as possible to stop massive losses on these routes .
51 Cubsrule : I don't know about "much more." STL is a more direct connecting point for the likes of BNA and gives access to LIT/MSY/HOU/BHM/TUL, but MCI is better
52 Post contains images bcoz : Maybe I'm missing something here, but I just wonder why, if STL is such a better option connectivity wise, it wasn't the choice for WN to begin with
53 Cubsrule : At the time they made the decision, AA still had a hub at STL and WN was just beginning the emphasis on business routes at STL. Now, WN is making a c
54 bcoz : Touche. It seems like just yesterday that WN started service at MKE when, in reality, it was a year and a half ago.... and those service decisions wo
55 Atrude777 : It is now...back in June of 2009 when WN announced MKE as a new station and the cities they'd be flying to, keep in mind back then MKE-STL was flown
56 FL787 : The flight times on MKE-STL look good: MKE-STL 0725-0840 1720-1835 STL-MKE 0910-1020 1910-2020 MKE-DEN has similar times to FL but it doesn't really m
57 splitterz : I know this. I wasn't specifically just talking about CAK. Just in general the reduction in flights has nothing really to do with loads in general.
58 evanbu : In the case of DSM, how will F9 respond, if at all? I don't know about you, but if I'm flying DSM-MKE, with MKE being my final destination, I would mu
59 enilria : The full picture is that this is simply triage. They are covering booked passengers just like they did with DFW remaining after the merger date. It i
60 QANTAS747-438 : WN announced today that this is the first set of cities that have been scheduled under "ONE" airline. From the site: Effective September 6, Southwest
61 dbo861 : Um, no. They already announced for sure that DFW is ending later this year..wasn't it in November sometime? DSM and CAK are getting upgraded and soun
62 flyinryan99 : With that schedule, I can see why it would've been low loads. I think they probably had a plane sitting idle and wanted to see how the O/D market wou
63 Post contains images enilria : That is an interesting piece of rhetoric presumably aimed at F9. DSM has to be upgraded because they made a commitment not to close stations and it w
64 kcrwflyer : They're using CAK to flow a 717 between another city and MKE. The aircraft should only be half empty or wose on one leg of its CAK-MKE, or reverse, t
65 izbtmnhd : WN has CLE-MDW service. That's in the same market.
66 enilria : Yes, but it is a double alternate. Apparently they didn't consider that reasonable for their customers. Ask their planners why...
67 ScottB : The message was already in the press release (emphasis added):
68 smoot4208 : Well at least it looks like F9 will get some relief on MKE-IND/OMA/PIT
69 enilria : True, but it is hard to separate signaling from marketing hoo-ha. It seems so. What is interesting is that BB seemed to know about this in advance as
70 bcoz : Sort of unrelated, but.... Despite the fact that FL is wholly-owned subsidiary of WN, is the IT infrastructure there for them to easily reaccomodate
71 ScottB : I suppose that's possible, but I doubt there was much need for a tip from Skywest. The end of the AirTran-Skywest agreement was known to be impending
72 WNCrew : As of today, no, but eventually yes. I believe the company is planning the ability to codeshare which would also allow reaccomodation etc.
73 izbtmnhd : Fair point.
74 n7371f : Um, no. Everyone in the free world knew SkyWest's MKE operation was toast. And why would SkyWest talk with Republic?
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