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A359 First Flight Pushed To End Of 2012  
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 17220 times:

Delay of about six months.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...light-pushed-back-to-end-2012.html

Quote:
aiming for certification and service entry by the end of 2013 because of a delay to final assembly

While Airbus planned a mid-2012 maiden flight, this seemed at odds with its intention to maintain a lead time of about nine months between final assembly and first flight.

60 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12526 posts, RR: 35
Reply 1, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 16895 times:

Still just slightly ahead of the 787 in terms of delays. I know Airbus won't want to be complacent, but if all they have is a delay of six months (even if it creeps up towards a year), they're doing ok. Hopefully it won't, though!

User currently offlineoykie From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2754 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 16855 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
aiming for certification and service entry by the end of 2013 because of a delay to final assembly

Thanks for the info. The delay are in line with expectations when we understood final assembly was pushed back.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offline328JET From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 16589 times:

Hehe, the delay is starting...


 


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31132 posts, RR: 85
Reply 4, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 16520 times:
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Airbus have already said they would have to compress the flight test schedule (from 12 to 9 months, I believe) to meet the late 2013 EIS, so are they talking compressing it even more now. or is this just reiterating the original compression?

User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4815 posts, RR: 40
Reply 5, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 16383 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
or is this just reiterating the original compression?

I would think the latter.


User currently offlineferpe From France, joined Nov 2010, 2804 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 16359 times:

How realistic is a flight test time on less then a year (fly late 2012 and certify AND deliver end 2013) for a completly new aircraft and engine? Is this a pipedream where everything has to work spot on? One hickup at 787 delayed everything 6 months, would the 350 have none?

I think this test schedule sounds very optimistic, comments?



Non French in France
User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10127 posts, RR: 97
Reply 7, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 16249 times:
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Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
Delay of about six months.

From the original schedule.

For clarification, Airbus have not declared a further 6 month delay here..

Rgds


User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1659 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 16203 times:

I may be wrong here, but I believe this is old news.

Airbus plan with the current CFRP A350XWB was to have FF in Q1 2012, and EIS in Q2 2013. Then they ate up all the margin they had, and a first 'delay' was announced. Which wasn't a real delay, because:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
Airbus have already said they would have to compress the flight test schedule

From 15 to 12 months actually, therewith consuming the last margin they had. FF mid 2012, EIS still Q2 2013,

Then a real delay was announced, 3 to 6 months, pushing EIS back to the end of 2013, So, it´s officially 6 months now, with 3 additional months needed for final assembly of MSN001, Which IMO is not a bad thing, Airbus doesn´t want a 787 style roll out, an empty shell lacking almost all systems,,,,

Edit: rereading it, it is actually another compression of the test flight schedule. EIS 12 months after completing final assembly, unless, Airbus plans to have FF immediately after completing FA? Surely that would be not realistic? They need ground testing and simulations on the ground first?



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offline747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3682 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 14476 times:

Well I am not suprize! The A380 was late, the 787 was late, even the latest model of the classic 747 was late, so why would it be a shock that the A350 XWB is late.

User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4491 posts, RR: 21
Reply 10, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 14355 times:

Quoting ferpe (Reply 6):
How realistic is a flight test time on less then a year (fly late 2012 and certify AND deliver end 2013) for a completly new aircraft and engine? Is this a pipedream where everything has to work spot on? One hickup at 787 delayed everything 6 months, would the 350 have none?

I think this test schedule sounds very optimistic, comments?

It's certainly achievable, but I don't think it's 100% realistic. If they can get away with just this six month delay, I'd say that would be a notable achievement.



I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently onlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5637 posts, RR: 29
Reply 11, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 13482 times:

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 9):
Well I am not suprize! The A380 was late, the 787 was late, even the latest model of the classic 747 was late, so why would it be a shock that the A350 XWB is late.

And the CRJ-1000 (how hard could it have been??)

In any event, I can't believe we're getting this close to actual final assembly. A year out? I guess I stopped paying attention after the 787 debacle. I'm getting excited to see another all-new frame roll out.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineferpe From France, joined Nov 2010, 2804 posts, RR: 59
Reply 12, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 13305 times:

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 10):
t's certainly achievable, but I don't think it's 100% realistic

If you expect to find nothing that takes time to fix that is, but how realistic is that? Does one really enter flight test of a new type and count on smooth sailing?

But then one can have the approach that you don't know what contingency one shall allow for appearing problems, any major problem will then cause delays which will be taken as they appear.



Non French in France
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9179 posts, RR: 76
Reply 13, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 12957 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
I may be wrong here, but I believe this is old news.

It is in a way, EIS has been stated as H2 2013 for some time. I think Qatar however were told mid 2013.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):

Airbus plan with the current CFRP A350XWB was to have FF in Q1 2012, and EIS in Q2 2013.

Correct, see the bottom of this slide

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/A350ProgressDec2010.jpg

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
EIS 12 months after completing final assembly, unless, Airbus plans to have FF immediately after completing FA? Surely that would be not realistic?

No it is not realistic, they would need to so ground and taxi tests prior to first flight. However these tests also form part of the certification process, so it would be included in the flight test schedule.

With the A350 they have changed how they assemble and test aircraft as well, the aircraft will have "power on" during the assembly stage prior to the wings being joined. In previous programs "power on" only occurred after assembly was complete. This allows for the testing of systems prior to the aircraft being fully assembled, which is a parallel test and manufacturing process.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineqfa787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 12888 times:

I wonder when Airbus will formally announce EIS delay of the 350 into 2014. It is merely a formality IMO.

User currently offlineikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21544 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 12504 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
With the A350 they have changed how they assemble and test aircraft as well, the aircraft will have "power on" during the assembly stage prior to the wings being joined. In previous programs "power on" only occurred after assembly was complete. This allows for the testing of systems prior to the aircraft being fully assembled, which is a parallel test and manufacturing process.

Sounds like a smart change to make. Hope it turns out well.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineRubberJungle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 11747 times:

The delays in the article have not been mentioned by Airbus before, as far as I can tell.

First flight was still "officially" mid-2012. But moving it became almost inevitable after the final assembly schedule was changed.

As for the EIS, the key issue is the wording. In PR-speak there's a subtle difference between "second half of 2013" and "by the end of 2013", even if the actual date meets both criteria.


User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 11272 times:

This is really more the confirmation of what was already expected given recent statements about the A350 (delay of final assembly). It is still worrying, as it seems that the flight test schedule, being last in the process, is being made to absorb the margins that have been eaten up by the previous processes.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
Airbus have already said they would have to compress the flight test schedule (from 12 to 9 months, I believe) to meet the late 2013 EIS, so are they talking compressing it even more now. or is this just reiterating the original compression?
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
From 15 to 12 months actually, therewith consuming the last margin they had. FF mid 2012, EIS still Q2 2013,

Correct, this is reiterating the compression from 15 to 12 months. The flight test schedule remains at 12 months (end 2012 - end 2013).

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
Edit: rereading it, it is actually another compression of the test flight schedule. EIS 12 months after completing final assembly, unless, Airbus plans to have FF immediately after completing FA? Surely that would be not realistic? They need ground testing and simulations on the ground first?

I think you are misunderstanding, EIS is not 12 months after FA, but rather, Type Certificate is 12 months after FF. I would guess that end of FA would be a few weeks before FF, and EIS would be about 1 month after TC.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 6):
I think this test schedule sounds very optimistic, comments?

Yes! IIRC Airbus has never certified an aircraft in only 12 months. While, if the Airbus plan works well, the A350 should be more a more mature a/c at FF than previous ones, IMO 12 months leaves no margin for hiccups, and places a lot of pressure on the flight test department, which is being made to compensate for delays in design & assembly. It will be very tight. Personally I believe an EIS delay to Q1 2014 is almost a given.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9179 posts, RR: 76
Reply 18, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 11050 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 17):
While, if the Airbus plan works well, the A350 should be more a more mature a/c at FF than previous ones, IMO 12 months leaves no margin for hiccups, and places a lot of pressure on the flight test department, which is being made to compensate for delays in design & assembly. It will be very tight.


I do not think it would be impossible, the 777 was around 44 weeks from first flight to certification. As long as they have enough frames to do the flight test schedule it should be possible.

Also should keep in mind that Airbus is using the same supply chain on the A350 as what they are using on the A330/A340, and they are still assembling the aircraft much the same sequence. They have not taken massive risks on using new suppliers or totally turned their known assembly process out the window. This is one of the ways Airbus was able to satisfy customers that they would not be exposed to the same risks as the 787. Time will tell to see if this is the case.

What Airbus has been saying to customers a few times now is that they are willing to take at hit in the initial assembly phase to make sure things are done right first go. This has been a significant problem on the A380 and 787 where unscheduled rework cost a lot of time in delivering aircraft. Customers are “happy” with this honesty, and can see how the strategy would be best for both parties.

Airbus was also fairly realistic with their industrial ramp up on the A350, they will not be looking at a massive backlog even if it is delayed slightly.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1659 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 10809 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 18):
Quoting r2rho (Reply 17):
While, if the Airbus plan works well, the A350 should be more a more mature a/c at FF than previous ones, IMO 12 months leaves no margin for hiccups, and places a lot of pressure on the flight test department, which is being made to compensate for delays in design & assembly. It will be very tight.


I do not think it would be impossible, the 777 was around 44 weeks from first flight to certification. As long as they have enough frames to do the flight test schedule it should be possible.

Yeah, I was thinking about the 777 flight test schedule as well. So it can be done. But a lot will depend on how fast Airbus can have MSN002, 003 and 004 in the air. If they're all doing flight tests early 2012, there's reason to be optimistic. Apart from the obvious reasons regarding the electronics bay bay fire on ZA002, the main reason the longer than expected 787 test flight schedule was getting all test planes ready for flight (and more time than expected to change test equipment).

Quoting r2rho (Reply 17):
Personally I believe an EIS delay to Q1 2014 is almost a given.

   QR have said several months ago they expect their first A350 not sooner than early 2014.

There will probably occur some 'unknown unknowns' during flight testing, I expect. #1 in my mind: software related (it always is these days    )



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineworldliner From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 275 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 10195 times:

I highly doubt this will be the last delay.


@777Worldliner
User currently offlineqfa787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 10186 times:

So who is going to be the Captain X of the 350 on a.net! This plane is going to be delayed and significantly. I have no doubt about it at all. Like Boeing and it's 787 issues the delays will be announced as late as possible and in as small increments as possible(does 6 months sound familiar).

User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10127 posts, RR: 97
Reply 22, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9943 times:
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Quoting frigatebird (Reply 19):
Yeah, I was thinking about the 777 flight test schedule as well

The flight test schedule will always depend upon it's starting point - i.e. how much design churn is still in the system...

Quoting qfa787380 (Reply 21):
So who is going to be the Captain X of the 350 on a.net! This plane is going to be delayed and significantly. I have no doubt about it at all.

Question and answer in one sentence, I suspect.

Rgds


User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9852 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 18):
I do not think it would be impossible, the 777 was around 44 weeks from first flight to certification. As long as they have enough frames to do the flight test schedule it should be possible.
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 19):
Yeah, I was thinking about the 777 flight test schedule as well. So it can be done. But a lot will depend on how fast Airbus can have MSN002, 003 and 004 in the air.

Yes, it can be done, but Airbus has never done it, so there is a learning curve to include there. It is true that the first 4 test aircraft will come online pretty quickly, so Airbus now has to get the maximum out of them.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 19):
There will probably occur some 'unknown unknowns' during flight testing, I expect. #1 in my mind: software related (it always is these days )

Agree. I am confident in the assembly process, I think Airbus can put together a good, non empty shell, A350 MSN1. Airbus has deliberately taken less risks than Boeing on the 787, which was a good idea.
I am also confident that it will fly well and easily clear the flight envelope, and show decent aero characteristics. Airbus should be able to get that right.
Performance will hopefully be OK with issues not going beyond the usual overweight & fuel burn misses of the first frames   .
But as you say, systems today have become terribly (and unnecessarily, IMO) complex. A lot of the issues on A380s have been due to false fault messages, for which troubleshooting has become more and more complex. Cabin systems are also a source of trouble. Their failure won't make your plane crash, but does make customers unhappy. I'm sure that systems integration will cause a good share of the headaches during the campaign


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9179 posts, RR: 76
Reply 24, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9739 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 23):

Yes, it can be done, but Airbus has never done it, so there is a learning curve to include there.

A320 52 weeks, A330 50 weeks, A340 60 weeks.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
25 Post contains images Chiad : Auch! LOL I for my part think that this will be the only delay. Time will tell.
26 Post contains images ferpe : A have invested more then before in system test rigs for this very reason, they often refer to the fact that they are the only ones who have built a
27 BLIKSEM : New technology and remember the A380 delays. You must be naive to believe that the A350 project will be on schedule
28 Post contains images astuteman : Especially after Airbus as good as declare it's going to be 6 months late..... True. I think all engineering suffers from this today. An over-relianc
29 Post contains images mffoda : Only 6 at EB....
30 Post contains images astuteman : 6 is a sort of "depends when you actually start" number, I suspect. They're a bit quicker, I guess.... But then we haven't finished our second of the
31 Post contains links gigneil : That slide comes from a deck packed with interesting facts. The link for everyone's reference: http://www.eads.com/dms/eads/int/en/...2010/Roadshow%2
32 qfa787380 : Doubt it as I have no inside knowledge here but it is patently obvious that this program will run late. That, in the end, may be a good thing as Airb
33 rcair1 : As an engineer who has been at the loosing end of these type of "compress the test schedule" approaches many times - I seriously doubt it. Typically
34 PlanesNTrains : I think the fact that you even bring Captain X up is a real red flag to where you are coming from. It's comments like this that make me sometimes reg
35 qfa787380 : I didn't like Captain X but he was proved quite correct a number of times. To me, the 350 is being treated very leniently in comparison with the 787.
36 Decromin : Judge the program on it's *actual* performance, rather than your intuition or doubts. People who assume that something will work perfectly, or fail s
37 qfa787380 : I'm assuming there will be issues and delays of 18 months+. I'm not assuming it will be a spectacular failure. Quite the opposite. It's not hard to f
38 zeke : Based upon what ? it has been tracking all of its key milestones thus far very well. Still talking about another 2-2.5 years, you are indicating (1.5
39 Post contains images EPA001 : Four years away is a very pessimistic scenario for which at this time no basis can be found at all. I do not believe this doom-thinking some here are
40 Post contains links Wsp : I don't recall any significant critical treatment of the 787 (or A380) development or production processes that took place half a year before the sta
41 qfa787380 : Just today La Tribune is reporting an EIS for the 350-1000 of 2017. Read into that what you like and I would expect some delay here due to the higher
42 Post contains links Wsp : Other things that Richard Aboulafia has been saying: May 2006: http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=217 June 2006: http://www.richardaboul
43 KC135TopBoom : Is the A-350 going to fly most of its flight testing with "package A" engine from RR, then switch to the production version "package B", like the B-78
44 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : I don't care for his commentaries, but to be fair, this was when all seemed rosy for the 787. While A330's are in hot demand right now, that would ha
45 Post contains links Baroque : Try the thread on the TXWB A350-1000's TrentXWB Gets 5,000lbs Extra Thrust (by PolymerPlane Jun 5 2011 in Civil Aviation) Esp the link given by EPA10
46 zeke : That is 6 years away, that does not pass the smell test. The aircraft was launched late in 2006, it is 2011 and they already building the first A350
47 Post contains links ferpe : I have put the essence of the real article appearing today (the above was a WSJ leak of that article) in the La Tribune thread: http://www.latribune.
48 Post contains images EPA001 : Which is 1.5 years later then initially planned, not 2 years. (I know, you are just the messenger ).
49 Post contains images ferpe : I said nothing about delay years in my post
50 frigatebird : Actually, it is not so far-fetched. Airbus has more or less confirmed the A350-900 will be 6 months delayed, from Q2 2013 to the end of 2013. Still,
51 Post contains links Wsp : The A350 had sold 200 copies when RA made that comment. http://www.leeham.net/filelib/ScottsColumn040406.pdf Hazy, who loudly advocated for what beca
52 qfa787380 : I read the link that started this thread. What else did I have to read? It was crystal clear and only clarifies what i already know. I suspect this w
53 Post contains images astuteman : At least CaptainX had that excuse to fall back on As Airbus have indeed said so, I suspect that's a safe bet.... As a Boeing supporter, it's perhaps
54 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Sure, but clearly the 787 program momentum - particularly the PR - was putting a damper on the A350v1 program. In those days, it really felt like Boe
55 Post contains images frigatebird : That's an interesting angle. So, what you're saying is that the success of the 77W and the following demise of the A340NG was actually a blessing in
56 astuteman : I was merely pointing out that the outcomes might well have been different, and led to Airbus being in different parts of the "competitiveness cycle"
57 Post contains images EPA001 : No, we are not surprised about that. What surprises me is that being a fan of X blinds people into seeing and acknowledging the strong points of Y or
58 JerseyFlyer : Is that 110 in elapsed total - some must surely have been in parallel given the common gestation of A330 / A340?
59 David L : I think they were talking specifically about the time between first flight and certification in each case so, even if there was overlap in what was a
60 frmrCapCadet : I think it is disengenuous at this point to consider the 380 a success. WHEN they get to making 3 planes a month (actually 36 a year) it will be a suc
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