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The A & B Duopoly Can Others Enter The Market  
User currently offlinebeeweel15 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1753 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 1665 times:

With all the talk at the Paris Air Show with A & B literally cleaning up the orders can any other manufacturer enter the market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...body-upstarts-at-bay-in-paris.html

The others Bombardier with their CSeries , China with their C919 , The Super Jet from Sukhoi in Russia and Embraer Brazil waiting on a Boeing decision can any of these companies really enter the B737/A320 market in the true sense. The designs and hard offerings they have are more for RJ market which they dominate. With the C919 and Embraer offering still on paper I am going to focus on the others. The CSeries and Super Jet from Bombardier and Sukhoi are nice aircraft but are they are more suited for the RJ Market each are 5 across. Range wise both aircraft are just under 3000 miles giving them trans con ability. Think they should have offered the aircraft with a 6 across seating and greater range to really penetrate the market if not what is really holding them back with A/B getting the orders left right and center. Whats your opinion. If topic discussed before I do apologies.

3 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinejonathanxxxx From United States of America, joined Feb 2011, 673 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (3 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 1648 times:

Well, Embraer is waiting very strategically. By waiting on Boeing's decision they can know what to make. Their E-Jets have been very popular and are not only used as regional jets but on much longer flights. Comac is a bit more progressed than Embraer because they already have their aircraft on paper as opposed to Embraer not even knowing what to do. Comac also is in discussions with carriers (FR) and has some backup from the Chinese Government (I think I'm Wrong, Correct Me If Possible).

Bombardier is in a completely different scenario. They have just entered the Airbus and Boeing Market. They are competing with the 737-600, 73G, A318 and A319. Although, the smallest variant; the CS 100 although will probably be used regionally. The CS 300 on the other hand is a jet with large potential. It seats just above the Embraer 195 and is very comparable to the Boeing 717. It should change the game. Although it hasn't raked in an extreme amount of many orders, it has laid a solid foundation with the current orders.

The Sukhoi Superjet seems like an interesting developement. I mean, it's gotten 223 orders in its lifetime and thats not too bad. Although it is definetely on the regional jet side. It has some potential competing against the Embraer 170 & 175 and the CRJ-900 and CRJ-1000 but it probably will sell like most other Russian aircraft mainly geared towards Asian and Eastern Europe operators with a few exceptions in Africa and other places. Although I could be wrong and it can sell amazingly, we just have to see.


User currently onlinepylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 1567 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1278 times:

The Duopoly actually exists for just about 20 years.
And I believe it shows some cracks in its basement.
A lot depends on Boeing's decision.
If they go with 797 project 180-200-220 and the prediction of some larger capicity/some lower frequency comes true - I believe that new entrants have a better chance. Even with 737RE.
Russian MS-21 is supposed to enter service in 2016. With P&W GTF and supposedely better economics than 320NEO.
I believe 919 Comac will materialise.
But it's too early. The dominating trend is not here yet.
However, a probability that the basement of the Duololy - which is narrowbodies - will start to weaken - this probability is real.


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6910 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1159 times:

No monopoly or duopoly can last forever, thanks to the inevitable and unavoidable universal application of the Peter Principle. Sooner or later someone with a fresh, unPeterized workforce will come along and offer a better product at a better price; and one (or both) members of the duopoly will fall by the wayside. This has already happened once in the civil market; Douglas and Lockheed pretty much dominated it until Boeing came along and blew them both away. It wasn't because Boeing knew more or had some secret tricks; it was because both Douglas and Lockheed had become stifled and complacent, plus Donald Douglas was getting old and was a better engineer than businessman. I'm less sure of what happened to Lockheed; but they made no serious effort to match the 707, and then shot themselves in the foot by building the same plane as Douglas to compete for a market that was not big enough for both, and bet on the wrong engine. The fact that the plane they built was magnificent was not enough to save them.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
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