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AA Removing Mainline From MKE?  
User currently onlinemke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2442 posts, RR: 5
Posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4683 times:

About seven months ago we learned that AA was going to upgrade DFW-MKE to three daily MD-80 flights: AA Mainline Returns To MKE, CLE And LIT (by MAH4546 Nov 21 2010 in Civil Aviation)?threadid=4989921&searchid=4993709&s=aa+mke+dfw#ID4993709 . After that announcement it seemed like the general consensus around A.net was that this service was performing very well for AA, and even my DFW-MKE flight in May was oversold by nine seats. However, I was just browsing around AA.com and after 11/16 its showing that the MD-80 has been replaced with five daily ERJs. If this isn't some kind of seasonal/temporary change, it'd be pretty disappointing to have this new service be so short lived. Could this move be related to F9's intent to add E190s on the route? Their website is still showing MKE-DFW as E170 into December, which doesn't make sense since all of those frames are supposed to be moved to DL by October.


Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinejpetekYXMD80 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 4378 posts, RR: 27
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4573 times:

Oh man, that would totally suck.


The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2069 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4559 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Thread starter):
even my DFW-MKE flight in May was oversold by nine seats

AA has to do something because they are losing money fast. Oversold does not mean anything. Every flight could be oversold and AA could still lose money. Load factor is an important metric for investors and management, so yield management is set to optimize load factors, even if it results in IDBs because the penalties for such are lower than the benefits of high load factors. Unfortunately supply exceed break even demand, so in order to keep the load factor high, yields are underwater at current fuel prices.


User currently offlinesfredspot From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 25 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4541 times:

Geez... A 90-seat reduction? Seems kind of extreme. Anybody know if there's an accompanying frequency increase – or are they actually cutting capacity by 64%? I didn't see anything in enilria's last OAG changes.

User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22726 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4311 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Thread starter):
However, I was just browsing around AA.com and after 11/16 its showing that the MD-80 has been replaced with five daily ERJs.

It's almost six months out. Are you sure it's not a dummy schedule?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 645 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4283 times:

It could be that equipments for this winter haven't been updated yet, and they are showing the default equipment of last year.

User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2000 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4239 times:

Quoting realsim (Reply 5):
It could be that equipments for this winter haven't been updated yet, and they are showing the default equipment of last year.

From what I understand, the fall schedule should be loaded in on Sunday.


User currently offlinepilotfox From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 551 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4117 times:

I'm hearing the same info, AA mainline gone in November....

User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3893 times:
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Sad but true. A direct casualty of rising fuel costs. From what I've heard (rumor mill) AA has decided to pull a few more MD80s out of service at the end of this year and plans on replacing that missing MD80 winter capacity with the RJs that were being used on some of the summer seasonal increases from DFW. Whether they return with mainline service next summer, after delivery of a few more 738s over the winter, is anybody's guess,

Unfortunately for the folks in MKE is not only means a 44% reduction in the number of seats (194 seats) on the route but with no increase in MKE-ORD flying it means an overall reduction in AA capacity of 29% out of MKE.

And just to add insult to injury to the MKE folks ... MKE will lose all F class service for the first time in several years when this change becomes effective in November. But after all, who needs F class when your competing with crap like F9 and WN in you're hometown  


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3853 times:

Dont panic bro, its a dummy schedule.

It will be updated soon. Anything past November 16 is not up to date.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4646 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3835 times:

Perhaps this is a seasonal reduction? something like Regional Nov-April, maiinline May-Oct?

Since AA has a poorly planned fleet the changes are a bit sharper than an airline that has CR9s and E175s like DL



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1294 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3822 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
It will be updated soon. Anything past November 16 is not up to date.

However for a lot of airlines, it just reverts back to what is operating at the present. It shouldn't show 5 ERJs unless thats what it currently is.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3766 times:

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 11):
However for a lot of airlines, it just reverts back to what is operating at the present. It shouldn't show 5 ERJs unless thats what it currently is.

In this case its just reverting to what it was at that time last year. Its showing DFW-SEA going back to all MD-80's when I know for a fact that wont be right. They are phasing the MD-80s out on that route.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3734 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
Dont panic bro, its a dummy schedule.

Deep breath ... don't panic ... just place holders ... breathe ... DFW will be back to mainline soon ... and they're going to add MKE-MIA mainline service too          .

Only time will tell but I hope you're right ... although, while F seats were nice, it kindda sucked having to spend 2 uprade stickers for my S.O. on flights with no meal services.


[quote=smoot4208,reply=11]However for a lot of airlines, it just reverts back to what is operating at the present. It shouldn't show 5 ERJs unless thats what it currently is.

Agreed, unless for some reason AA's system reverts to what it was last year at that time.


User currently onlinemke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2442 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3726 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
It's almost six months out. Are you sure it's not a dummy schedule?

I hope you're right, but I could've sworn that when I was looking about a week ago for flights over Thanksgiving they were still showing MD-80s.



Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2000 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3641 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 8):
Sad but true. A direct casualty of rising fuel costs. From what I've heard (rumor mill) AA has decided to pull a few more MD80s out of service at the end of this year and plans on replacing that missing MD80 winter capacity with the RJs that were being used on some of the summer seasonal increases from DFW.

Can someone enlighten me...what is the cost difference between running 3x M80s and 5x ERJ-145s on this route? Then, what is the overall revenue potential between the two? Do they think they will be able to make a bigger margin with RJs then they can make with M80s? I just don't understand that type of rationale especially when there is competition with lower fares on the route. I would think 3x M80s would be just fine to compete in this market. Then again, I don't get to see the numbers and the larger picture.


User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3519 times:
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I don't think it has to do with the costs of the route directly, but rather the overall costs of operating the MD80s in the fleet. As I mentioned above, the rumor (and I really mean rumor because I wouldn't consider the source anything more) is that AA is planning on cutting additional MD80s out of the fleet by years end. The result will be an even greater decrease in domestic capacity. To fill the gaps of these MD80s AA will be using the ER4s that will be freed from the draw down some of the summer seasonal capacity.

Although the MKE flights have been running fairly full, occasionally oversold, I don't think there has been much of a demand for the premium cabins. I'm EXP and have always been upgraded at the 100 hour window - but even then it's been rare to have more than 1-2 other seats filled in on the F seat map when I've been upgraded.

Either way, I agree with your point that it's counter intuitive to making a profit out of MKE. F9 is cutting flying because they realize RJ flying is unprofitable out of MKE. Despite that AA has made the decision to go back to 50 seat RJ flying on a flight that's over 2.5 hours and compete in a market with a WN/FL operation running all mainline.

I have no insight if this is a temporary change until they get more 738s are delivered, a response to decreased competition from the WN/FL merger, rumored increase in capacity of F9 equipment coming up, or it may be a way for AA to cut some expected losses due to the entry of NK ORD-DFW market without cutting ORD-DFW frequency.


User currently offlineMNMncrcnwjr From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 3325 times:

From the OAG changes Thread posted 6/28

*AA DFW-MKE NOV 3>4 DEC 3>5 JAN 3>5 FEB 4>5

No mention of AC type ....



CV340/580DC3DC9super80MD88/90DC10717273747576777A319/20CRJ2/7/9F27AVROJET31CITAT5/7/XSAAB340YS11Dash8E135/45/75
User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 3271 times:
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Quoting MNMncrcnwjr (Reply 17):

No mention of AC type ....

AA.com has ER4s scheduled beginning Nov. 16th. However, you do bring up an interesting point, especially with others saying that the schedule may not be finalized and these could just be place holders. Maybe we'll end up seeing a combination of equipment on the route.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11426 posts, RR: 61
Reply 19, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3223 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 18):
AA.com has ER4s scheduled beginning Nov. 16th. However, you do bring up an interesting point, especially with others saying that the schedule may not be finalized and these could just be place holders. Maybe we'll end up seeing a combination of equipment on the route.

This is not a placeholder- AA mainline is off the route from 11/16.


User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3179 times:
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Quoting commavia (Reply 19):
This is not a placeholder- AA mainline is off the route from 11/16

Yeah, I know.   

Denial and rationalization are powerful tools though ... ain't they? I'm probably not going even going to be alive if we have to wait another 17 years for it to come back         


User currently offlinePI767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3161 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 8):
But after all, who needs F class when your competing with crap like F9 and WN in you're hometown

A lot of people seem to like the "crap" that WN offers and a lot of cities are begging to have that "crap" serve their airports.

Must not be too bad.

 


User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3124 times:
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Quoting PI767 (Reply 21):

Must not be too bad.

Yeah ... but before you go rolling your eyes, not all of us look for the cheapest flights to get us from point A-B and like to fly the coach cattle cars. Some of us like to fly outside the US, use the millions of miles we accumulate, and yes, even take advantage of the upgrades we earn.   


User currently onlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2755 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2975 times:
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Quoting crAAzy (Reply 22):
Yeah ... but before you go rolling your eyes, not all of us look for the cheapest flights to get us from point A-B and like to fly the coach cattle cars. Some of us like to fly outside the US, use the millions of miles we accumulate, and yes, even take advantage of the upgrades we earn.

I thought people were starting to get that WN was nearly never the cheapest anymore. Though those are great points, I prefer the excellent service on every flight compared to what I get on AA. I can't afford the luxury of flying overseas so visiting my family or going to Disney works for me too!
Sad to see MKE lose mainline. Its already regional jet city there, looks like it's going to get even better!
Blue



You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger- Ken Foltz
User currently offline9w748capt From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 554 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2261 times:

This really stinks. I guess there wasn't enough cash coming in from the front cabins to make the flights worth it, however full steerage was. Very much enjoyed this flight out of MKE. Amazing how little market share the legacies have here, save for maybe DL.

User currently onlinemke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2442 posts, RR: 5
Reply 25, posted (3 years 1 month 22 hours ago) and read 1531 times:

Its been speculated in another thread that AA's initial upgrade to MD-80 was a result of FL starting the route. That's certainly possible, but FL ended MKE-DFW in January and then AA's mainline service didn't start until April.


Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
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