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How Long Will UA Stay The World's Largest?  
User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2793 posts, RR: 10
Posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 11724 times:
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Of all the ways an airline is measured (fleet size, revenue, pax traffic etc) I don't know how fully merged UA will be measured as largest? (or "leading") in every measure? If things go as planned!?


Also, since nothing is forever how long do you or the industry or market think the new fully merged, single flying cert UNITED will keep that title? If DL or AA merge with someone like US will that change overnight?

Smisek's word "LEADING" is clearly carefully chosen (as in my last boss was the worlds leading idiot) so it can be interpreted in many ways, does he more elude to size vs quality?


The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
54 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSulley From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 524 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 11657 times:

Forever. The new UA and the globe are the alpha, the omega...  


In thrust we trust!
User currently offlineaznmadsci From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 3635 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 11630 times:

Quoting Sulley (Reply 1):
Forever. The new UA and the globe are the alpha, the omega...

  



The journey of life is not based on the accomplishments, but the experience.
User currently offlineGreenArc From United States of America, joined May 2000, 78 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 11501 times:

Quoting VC10er (Thread starter):
Also, since nothing is forever how long do you or the industry or market think the new fully merged, single flying cert UNITED will keep that title? If DL or AA merge with someone like US will that change overnight?

After integration, UCH will immediately begin shrinking back to the size of pre merger United. A merger will be announced with US Airways and the executive management will reap an additional windfall. Repeat as necessary.


User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9375 posts, RR: 52
Reply 4, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 11374 times:

I imagine they will shrink some. DEN and CLE will likely shrink. DEN was a great hub until WN came in and the F9, WN, UA fare wars began. DEN has artificially turned into one of the lowest fare airports in the country just like MKE has. A lot of connecting traffic can go elsewhere. CLE's death was already imminent.

The old UA shrunk so much because after they tried with Ted, they just gave up serving markets where there was too much low fare competition. They gave away Florida which at one point was a key market. They have mostly given up SEA to AS, which use to be a UA mini-hub. They shrunk in LAS, PHX & LAX. They kept their high revenue airports like ORD, SFO, and IAD, but pulled down everything else and gave in and acknowledged that they can't compete with WN, B6, etc.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineORDBOSEWR From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 399 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 11179 times:

Quoting VC10er (Thread starter):

Smisek's word "LEADING" is clearly carefully chosen (as in my last boss was the worlds leading idiot) so it can be interpreted in many ways, does he more elude to size vs quality?

They don't want to have the issue that DL had when they merged and played that up. Bigger was not always seen as better by the public.

Quoting VC10er (Thread starter):


Of all the ways an airline is measured (fleet size, revenue, pax traffic etc) I don't know how fully merged UA will be measured as largest? (or "leading") in every measure? If things go as planned!?

Where would LANTAM fit in the order?

I would venture to say that they will be the largest until 2 of the ME airlines merge  


User currently offlinerdh3e From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 1458 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 11178 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 4):
I imagine they will shrink some. DEN and CLE will likely shrink. DEN was a great hub until WN came in and the F9, WN, UA fare wars began. DEN has artificially turned into one of the lowest fare airports in the country just like MKE has. A lot of connecting traffic can go elsewhere. CLE's death was already imminent.

I'm not sure why everyone keeps parroting that DEN is going anywhere, it's not. There is plenty of premium traffic that flows through there and all of the connecting traffic helps keep frequencies up and gives everyone more options.


User currently offlineSASMD82 From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 709 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 10990 times:
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Look at Deltal. They had a fleet of nearly 1,000 planes in times of the merger. Now they have a fleet that consists of 725 planes and they are still talking to reduce capacity. That's why I am not sure if United will sustain as #1.

User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2015 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 10989 times:

Quoting VC10er (Thread starter):
Also, since nothing is forever how long do you or the industry or market think the new fully merged, single flying cert UNITED will keep that title?

It is possible that by the time UA has a single operating certificate, they will be smaller than DL, although DL appears to be reversing some of its aggressive expansion. CO plans to park the 735s and 762s and overall capacity has been inching downward. If AA has been the most conservative airline and DL the most aggressive, UA is somewhere in between, probably closer to AA. DL has to be aggressive because outside of its hubs, it is at best second or third in the major business centers. UA has a large but precarious position in the top markets. AA is hunkering down at its key stations.

Being the largest airline is probably a liability when fuel prices are high.


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7276 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10793 times:

The name of the game is profit, not size!


Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineindiansbucs From Costa Rica, joined May 2007, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10797 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 7):
Look at Deltal. They had a fleet of nearly 1,000 planes in times of the merger. Now they have a fleet that consists of 725 planes and they are still talking to reduce capacity. That's why I am not sure if United will sustain as #1.

Not true... by the time of the merger... DL plus NW on mainline aircraft reached 752 planes... 1300 was the number if they included DL Connection carriers...now thay have around 730... which by the way they still are the largest ailine of the world in terms of fleet. Same happens to UA/CO... or any other US Legacy carrier... in terms of counting fleets. UA/CO has the largest amount of employees...


User currently offlineBCEaglesCO757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 241 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10546 times:

As an employee, I'll speak for myself and say this much : I never have, and don't think "Wow ! We're the largest and biggest airline on the whole globe." I'd say most of my coworkers from conversation would agree.

What I DO care about is this : The combined carrier has Hubs in EWR,IAD,ORD,IAH,CLE,DEN,LAX, and SFO domestically.

Some of the highest yielding and premium markets in the country. If the combined carrier had 300 planes I'd be happy ( ok,not really,but you get the point. ) If the guys in Chicago are as bright as they lead myself and coworkers to believe, they can turn the combined company into a healthy and profitable carrier. The markets are there. The employees are here. provide a good product and the sky is the limit.


UA covers a great deal of the country, if not 3/4ths of it. You can reach nearly any corner of the globe, and major business center from most hubs. Plus some vacation and small to midsize destinations too.

I'm most concerned with this company utilizing the hubs it has to the max. Much the way - despite it's small size - CO utilized its fleet, which we did well.

If we get passed tommorow by AA,DL, or whoever I don't think anybody here could care less.

Just an insiders two cents and POV.


User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2491 posts, RR: 9
Reply 12, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 10383 times:

My guess is the domestic market may shrink a bit with maybe CLE going away and DEN having competition issues.

However, if size is based on ASMs, movement toward even more international service will boost UA/CO's size. The conversion of 763ERs to international aircraft means more seats flown across the pond and ASMs pile up pretty quickly on international widebody flights. Those currently flown domestically 736ERswill be replaced by 753, 752 and 738/9 aircraft. That may bring down domestic ASMs, but frequency may be increased.

There are several international markets that can be added from IAD and EWR to cities already served from their opposite hubs and rationalization of widebody plus PMCO 752s equipment will be a plus internationally.
Possible EWR-DME-KWI-DXB-ACC Upgrade of numerous EWR routes from 752 to 763ER
Possible IAD-TLV-MXP-MAD-BCN-LIS-SNN-DUB-MAN-EDI-BHX-GLA-CPH-OSL-ARN. Many can be flown with 752 equipment.
There are more opportunities to South America, Asia and Hawaii/Pacific.

It may be temporary, but DL has seemed to pull back on JFK international flights - UA/CO could be positioned to enter some of those market with better feed and the additional widebodies that will be available.

With more domestic hubs, there will be more ways to connect passengers, which could signal frequency reduction in some markets. However, this could be balanced by being the biggest airline in many of America's largest cities (EWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, DEN, LAX, SFO), boosting its frequent flyer base as the merged airline can take people to more places more frequently.
Note that UA/CO will be the largest airline at America's largest 3 metro areas and 6 of the top 11 metro areas
NY/#1, LA/#2, CHI/#3, IAH/#6, DC/#7, SF/#11 (None of these markets are shrinking)
Top 11 markets: AA-DFW & MIA, DL-ATL & BOS, US-PHL (of course they all have presence in NY, LA and CHI)

UA seems to have shed it's inefficient equipment, so one would expect PMCO to shed the 735s and remaining 762 when either the opportunity for sale arises or fuel prices go higher. However, there are many more 73NG on order than 735s and many more 787 and A350s on order than 762. As time goes by, a fleet modernization program must replace the older UA 744s, 752s, 763ERs and A320s.

Who knows what could happen in the future however that could have a huge impact on all of our theorizing:
Terrorism
Economic collapse
Bankruptcy by AA
Mega-Mergers
Fuel Prices


User currently offlinebreaker1011 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 938 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 10300 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 7):
Look at Deltal. They had a fleet of nearly 1,000 planes in times of the merger. Now they have a fleet that consists of 725 planes and they are still talking to reduce capacity. That's why I am not sure if United will sustain as #1.

Delta did not dump 300+ aircraft in the past 24 months.

I will ask though if someone has total passenger, revenue, RPM numbers lately to compare DL and UA/CO including their respective affiliate/regional networks. I've counted at a glance a couple of times based on monthly reports and it seemed that UA/CO and DL were interchangeable to some degree as #1. Anyone have quick access to data that demonstrates the #1 and #2 spots?



Life's tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid. J. Wayne
User currently offlineDTWLAX From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 760 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 9903 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 8):
DL has to be aggressive because outside of its hubs, it is at best second or third in the major business centers

Same can be said about UA outside of its hubs too.
UA is certainly not the best in the NYC region. In fact most business travelers fly into LGA and some into JFK.
UA is nowhere compared to DL or AA for business travelers to New York.

Quoting BCEaglesCO757 (Reply 11):
The combined carrier has Hubs in EWR,IAD,ORD,IAH,CLE,DEN,LAX, and SFO domestically.

Can you really call CLE a hub anymore?


User currently offlineATLflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 735 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 9624 times:

When will Emirates be the world's largest?

User currently offlinesyncmaster From United States of America, joined Jul 2002, 2015 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 9432 times:
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Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 14):
Same can be said about UA outside of its hubs too.

Ding ding. It's hard to say that any single carrier dominates the entire US domestic market. On a market-by-market basis you can certainly say other lead the way, but not for the whole country.


User currently offlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 1977 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 9275 times:
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DEN may be fined tuned like other hubs. But it's doubtful it will leave DEN a la CO in 1994. DEN has many advantages, and has a weakened competitor in DEN. So shrink is not the right word at all in my opinion.

User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2793 posts, RR: 10
Reply 18, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 9213 times:
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Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 14):

What do you mean by UA is nowhere near DL and AA in NYC? I live in NYC. EWR has a perception problem vs JFK (I would agree to that) but most New York business travelers I know try to get flights on the most chic of international carriers when possible but so many people I know do prefer CO over AA or DL. Even when CO's hard product (Pre flat seats) was so much more horrible.
It is true with so many top execs living north of NYC prefer JFK and felt like EWR was like driving to Atlantic City!



The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
User currently offlinegoblin211 From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 9021 times:

I don't see any other airlines growing to UA's size so I'd say for several years to come IMHO


From the airport with love
User currently offlineBCEaglesCO757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 241 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8744 times:

Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 14):
Can you really call CLE a hub anymore?

Point taken.

I was looking at it in the sense that the hubs that we have now,cover just about every major region for the time being.

Key words - just about. I know people will say the southeast is a gaping hole.


User currently offlinegreenair727 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 544 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 8701 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer:
I imagine they will shrink some. DEN and CLE will likely shrink. DEN was a great hub until WN came in and the F9, WN, UA fare wars began. DEN has artificially turned into one of the lowest fare airports in the country just like MKE has. A lot of connecting traffic can go elsewhere. CLE's death was already imminent.

???Huh? CLE will remain. CLE is a very strong O&D market. IF UA leaves, pax will not be herded through ORD or IAH. They'll be swooped by another carrier that will come and provide the direct service. There's too much happening right now in CLE for any airline to cut any service (watch Enrila's weekly OAG updates--no cuts beyond anything seasonal in CLE and in fact CLE-SFO was just increased from once daily to 3x daily). UA knows this. If they de-hub, their loyal passengers will just use other carriers that will expand service.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6577 posts, RR: 32
Reply 22, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8054 times:

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 12):
Note that UA/CO will be the largest airline at America's largest 3 metro areas and 6 of the top 11 metro areas
NY/#1, LA/#2, CHI/#3, IAH/#6, DC/#7, SF/#11 (None of these markets are shrinking)

UA/CO is not the largest carrier in the L.A. metro area. If the DL/US slot swap proceeds, DL will probably become the largest carrier in NYC.


User currently offlineMax Q From United States of America, joined May 2001, 4067 posts, RR: 19
Reply 23, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7867 times:

Under Smisek ?



Expect steady contraction, closing of hubs, outsourcing as much as possible with the maximum use of regional jets (he may find this tough now though with far stronger union opposition)



Expect continued demoralisation due to his non existent leadership and people skills.



He presided over the killing of a fine Airline with no qualms whatsoever, 'taking the helm' of this juggernaut, not with an eye on its potential but on how much he could cut costs by taking away what we at Continental have spent a lifetime building up.



He has no vision and should be replaced as soon as possible.



The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
User currently offlinemrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (2 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 7426 times:

Quoting Max Q (Reply 23):
He presided over the killing of a fine Airline with no qualms whatsoever, 'taking the helm' of this juggernaut, not with an eye on its potential but on how much he could cut costs by taking away what we at Continental have spent a lifetime building up.

He has no vision and should be replaced as soon as possible.

Agree. Add to that his social awkwardness, and it's a match made in.. well, certainly not heaven.



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
25 Post contains images SASDC8 : UA will loose the title when BA/IB take over AA
26 united319 : Maybe he meant specifically LAX, I know they are the biggest there. Rumor has it that they are looking to beef the LAX hub back up again. They have b
27 Style : No, actually the same can't be said. UA is THE dominant carrier at the major business centers. That was one of the selling points of this merger, rem
28 SCL767 : Perhaps UA isn't satisfied with TACA's services on the GUA-LAX, SAL-LAX and SJO-LAX routes, even though UA code-shares with TACA on those routes.
29 teaminthesky : I am hoping asking this does not get me stoned due to it being the proverbial a.net conspiracy theory. But even in the exceptionally unlikely event th
30 ScottB : He might have meant LAX, but the L.A. metro area has more than just LAX. By that sort of logic, we should exclude EWR because it's not actually in NY
31 CALPSAFltSkeds : OK, then who is biggest in the LA Area total? Let's see does DL or AA have a huge operation at SNA, BUR, ONT, LGB that would overcome UA in total? Ma
32 BCEaglesCO757 : I'd take having a substantive market share in LAX,EWR,ORD, and WAS than in ATL,DTW,MSP. Nothing against the latter markets,but the former have alot o
33 point2point : Just out of curiosity, since IAH is the predominant connection point of the UA/CO system into Mexico, Central and South America, would anyone know how
34 AADC10 : Yes, but UA's hubs tend to be in the major markets, EWR, LAX, ORD and IAH. SFO and IAD are smaller but in economically strong regions. DL is of cours
35 breaker1011 : Didn't Delta already "squeak" past AA in NYC a few years ago?
36 Post contains images VC10er : You post calls for a "don't hold back, tell us how you really feel" I don't know anything about the guy but I will admit he has a very small fan club
37 VC10er : always 'provided' great service to their elites) sorry, needed to correct a boo boo above.
38 IPFreely : Ah, Cleveland -- regional jet hub of the world!!! UA may not leave but I expect reductions in the next 1-2 years. The beneficiary of this will be Sou
39 gigneil : That means Washington, DC and Cincinnati don't have airports at all. NS
40 taxpilot : How Long Will UA Stay The World's Largest? Until WN decides to make its move!
41 thegeek : That's what I expect from the other side of the world. The question then is: why did CO agree to this takeover (merger if you prefer your words mince
42 SESGDL : DL is not a huge player in ATL, one of the largest O&D markets in the country, or NYC, where it is the 2nd largest carrier, or DTW and MSP, which
43 ScottB : I was pointing out the idiocy that the only airport worth considering in the L.A. area is LAX, when clearly that isn't true. It really depends on how
44 Max Q : Not sure I understand you. CO, unfortunately is controlled by management, they were bought and paid for.
45 thegeek : Was trying to ask why the owners of Continental would agree to such a merger? United were/are in a pretty shaky financial position weren't they?
46 Max Q : Yes, very and still are but they simply didn't care. Smisek and his cronies stood to make a lot of money for themselves with this merger so they jump
47 thegeek : In Australia, I'm sure a deal like that would require shareholder approval though. Not the case in the US? Or did they just screw up?
48 Burkhard : If the order UA-DL-AA remains ( no future big mergers there ) I would say 10-15 years until Air China takes that ( dubious) crown.
49 gigneil : It received OVERWHELMING shareholder approval. The merger is planned to contribute nearly a billion dollars in synergistic savings, and the combined
50 United1 : Both UA and CO were actually pretty stable prior to the merger and UA especially had turned a corner both financially and operationally prior to merg
51 Viscount724 : Over 98%.
52 seatback : Completely agree. Not to mention Salt Lake City, Memphis and Cincinnati. All great cities (I live in CVG) but none are premium business centers such
53 SESGDL : Neither is CLE nor DEN, for that matter. DL does just fine with its bases, and deals with less competition than UA/CO does. DL still has its megahub
54 gabez : How much smaller than UA is the next-smaller airline? I could imagine more consolidation happening in either Asia or in the Americas - larger airlines
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