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What Would Happen At DEN And MKE If F9 Collapsed?  
User currently offlineDLHFLYER From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 184 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3714 times:

What would happen to the Denver and Milwaukee airports if Frontier collapsed? Who would expand as a result?
-Would these assets be sold in bankruptcy court to airlines?
-Would American be interested in creating a hub in Denver? Continental had a hub in Denver so having two legacy carriers hubbed at DEN wouldn't be the first time.
-Would Southwest expand rapidly at both Denver and Milwaukee?
-Would another LCC expand at Denver or Milwaukee?
-Would it be a free for all, leading to all current airlines at each airport expanding but not creating a hub?
-Would any airline be interested in a hub/focus city at either airport or shudder at the current yields at both airports, especially given the basement fares offered by Frontier? Would the gates sit empty?

According to a Frontier Fact Sheet, they have 151 daily flights at Denver and 76 daily flights at Milwaukee (as of April 2011).

Here is a look at the terminal maps on each airports website.

Denver Airport
http://i700.photobucket.com/albums/ww6/flyingperson/denverairport.jpg

Milwaukee Airport

Frontier operates gates D27-D51, D53, and D55 at Milwaukee according to the website.


Duluth is a nice city, we even get 3 months without snow per year
16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinebreaker1011 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 938 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3639 times:

Quoting DLHFLYER (Thread starter):
-Would American be interested in creating a hub in Denver? Continental had a hub in Denver so having two legacy carriers hubbed at DEN wouldn't be the first time.

No legacy in their right mind is going to pop into DEN with a new hub anytime soon.

Quoting DLHFLYER (Thread starter):
-Would Southwest expand rapidly at both Denver and Milwaukee?

Rapidly no, expand eventually yes. Probably just enjoy higher loads and better yields in the short term.

Quoting DLHFLYER (Thread starter):
-Would another LCC expand at Denver or Milwaukee?

Just don't see why anyone would want to go into DEN and do a pissing match with WN and UA. LCC or legacy. Resources best spent somewhere without so much blood on the floor. MKE, squatting in between ORD, MSP, MDW, and DTW, doesn't feel destined for any huge expansion. Add in CLE and CVG and the region is just over-hubbed. If neither F9 nor Midwest could make it work, it's probably destined for just a nice spoke city for just about every carrier with a few point to points here and there.

Quoting DLHFLYER (Thread starter):
-Would it be a free for all, leading to all current airlines at each airport expanding but not creating a hub?

Likely scenario for all the above reasons.



Life's tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid. J. Wayne
User currently offlineUALFAson From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 721 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3641 times:

Ah yes, the old "what will happen in DEN if/when UA/F9/WN collapses?" debate. We haven't discussed this in a few days and I can't sleep, so I'll bite and throw in my 2 cents worth.

I think other airlines' responses will depend on the timing of any F9 BK or liquidation. Meaning, if it were to happen tomorrow, I don't think you'd see a huge immediate response. There's no way AA will establish a hub there. They have recently drawn down some second-tier focus-city types to concentrate on their cornerstone hub strategy. UA might be interested in filling in lost capacity in certain select markets (DCA slot re-allocation anyone?) but it would have to come on CO metal and I think they have bigger fish to fry in opening new int'l markets. WN would be most likely to increase service, but they don't exactly have a lot of extra planes at the moment not to mention having their hands full with the FL merger.

I don't follow the MKE market enough to comment, but I doubt you'd see a huge expansion binge there either. Airlines are finally starting to post some profits thanks to continued strict capacity controls. So while you could, in theory, see other airlines pick up the slack from a hypothetical F9 collapse by increasing service to their respective hubs, I don't think you're going to see a stampede of route planners chasing after bargain-basement DEN-LAS or MKE-MCO traffic, for example.



"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
User currently offlineDLHFLYER From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 184 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3594 times:

Quoting breaker1011 (Reply 1):
Just don't see why anyone would want to go into DEN and do a pissing match with WN and UA. LCC or legacy.

I can't imagine the airport managers would just sit there at DEN and watch Concourse A become a Ghost Town. You have to think that they would offer an incentive to some airline. I can't imagine Southwest or United would cover all the capacity from F9 if it collapsed. Then again, perhaps nobody cares about the passengers Frontier was getting.

Quoting UALFAson (Reply 2):
I don't follow the MKE market enough to comment, but I doubt you'd see a huge expansion binge there either.

I do agree that Milwaukee would see little expansion but I'd think a legacy (Delta?) would come in and step up service to some cities especially if Southwest transferred a bunch of flights down to Midway.

Interesting to hear both of your perspective.



Duluth is a nice city, we even get 3 months without snow per year
User currently offlineADent From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1379 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3437 times:

DEN: DL moves to A Concourse A. WN owns C.

User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3440 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3421 times:

No airline would want to move a hub to either. They are too low airfare andclearly are not making Frontier any money.

Mke would just see less southwest cuts. I think those cuts are coming frontiers gonna be here for too long.

If frontier went under in den WN would scramble from other cities reductions of low performing point to points and get planes for more Denver gates. My two cents. United would be more commited and confident in Denver if they only had one other LCC hub to compete against.


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2757 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3334 times:

I think that the U.S. economy has been quite dismal the last few years, yet we've seen UA, F9, and WN all having hubs in DEN, and all showing profits. I don't think any airline is going to leave DEN anytime soon, and I think that F9 has lots of life and a long ways to go before they go away.

That being said, if any airline were to reduce by a large amount frequencies from DEN, I do think that VX and NK would probably jump into DEN fast with at least flights to their hubs. VX with flights to SFO and LAX, and maybe even to IAD, JFK and LAS, NK with flights to FLL, LAS, and maybe ORD LAX and DTW. I think that these two airlines are just waiting for something to happen here so that they can get in here, but it's just too difficult with the present situation.


User currently offlinedlramp4life From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 930 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3330 times:

Quoting ADent (Reply 4):
DEN: DL moves to A Concourse A. WN owns C.

So that would only fill 5 of F9s gates if F9 went under in concourse A. I see where you are going with this but F9 has 75% of the gate space in concourse A in DEN...how else would you fill up the other gates?



PHX Ramp, hottest place on earth
User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5070 posts, RR: 21
Reply 8, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3204 times:

DEN: Probably not much, UA/WN & the rest would enjoy higher load factors initially and then traffic would level out.

MKE: Far more interesting IMHO. WN would probably not cut much, as some speculate a rationalization at MKE is coming with the FL acquisition, and might add a few things they hadn't planned on. I could see WN moving to D, or everyone else at C moving to D with WN taking all of C.

MCI: Not much either, how many hubs/mini-hubs/focus cities have come and gone there?



Next Up: STL-LGA-RIC-ATL-STL
User currently offlineRamblinMan From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 1138 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2980 times:

DEN- No way AA or any other major comes in. You'd have to be insane to try and grow a hub from scratch when UA and WN are already entrenched there. The airport layout simply changes to WN on C, UA on B, and everybody else on A. Everybody quietly adds a couple flights here and there, fares creep up slightly, perhaps VX starts service, and the capacity is absorbed.

MKE- again, not much. WN will slowly grow instead of retreating. MDW capacity is about tapped anyway.


User currently offlineairfrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2860 times:

Quoting DLHFLYER (Thread starter):
What would happen to the Denver and Milwaukee airports if Frontier collapsed? Who would expand as a result?
-Would these assets be sold in bankruptcy court to airlines?
-Would American be interested in creating a hub in Denver? Continental had a hub in Denver so having two legacy carriers hubbed at DEN wouldn't be the first time.
-Would Southwest expand rapidly at both Denver and Milwaukee?
-Would another LCC expand at Denver or Milwaukee?
-Would it be a free for all, leading to all current airlines at each airport expanding but not creating a hub?
-Would any airline be interested in a hub/focus city at either airport or shudder at the current yields at both airports, especially given the basement fares offered by Frontier? Would the gates sit empty?

Given how aggressive WN has been in Denver, I think you would see a massive expansion of their effort there. DEN just works too perfectly in their point to point network.

the rest are not worth thinking about, because F9 is not going anywhere (I hope  


User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3440 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2762 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 6):
I think that the U.S. economy has been quite dismal the last few years, yet we've seen UA, F9, and WN all having hubs in DEN, and all showing profits. I don't think any airline is going to leave DEN anytime soon, and I think that F9 has lots of life and a long ways to go before they go away.
F9 maybe has made a profit a few quarters but Frontier is a loosing alot of money overall anyway you slice it. DEN and MKE as hubs have to be a major part of their losses they are both super low fares. IIRC they are the two lowest average fare hubs in the country aren't they? Frontier flies all fuel efficient planes so fuel increases aren't really a valid excuse for them. Republic is extremely nervous about Frontier and rumor is very high the headquarters will move back to Colorado even before Republic becomes a minority stakeholder or sells it off. I still think Frontier will be around for a while long enough that UA might be the first to really decrease then rebuild if Frontier goes under.

DEN and MKE - Neither hub is a gem or a cash heaven based on fares for anyone. With the three way battle i wouldn't be surprised if all three were loosing money in DEN especially talking about o&d. They each have their own reasons for staying but in the end i still think someones gonna have to shrink.

From the frontier CEO "Clearly, it's a third competitor in the marketplace," Bedford added. "And the good news is that fares are incredibly low here. Fares out of Denver on all three of us, on United, Southwest, and Frontier are lower than any other Southwest market, so they're selling product here cheaper than they would any other place that there's no Frontier. You can make your own conclusions on why they do that."

Southwest would add to Denver anyway possible if a major amount of gates opened up. I still think Southwest still truly believes they can get one of the other two to decrease significantly in DEN with continued pressure. When we are talking about DEN who really knows though? It has been incredibly interesting to see WN do very unsouthwest like things and built DEN up faster than any city ever and i cant wait to see what happens in the future at DIA.

[Edited 2011-07-22 12:54:44]

User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12138 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2680 times:

If F9 were to go out of business, DEN and MKE would face the same problems DFW did several years ago when DL de-hubbed there. There are just so many airplanes and airlines to go around. F9 is in real financial trouble, and I would guess both airports have contingency plans should a major airline at that airport leave, for any reason.

You may see some expansion from WN, but it would not replace 300 daily operations at DEN, nor 150 daily operations at MKE. The same goes for other carriers. UA will play a big role in what airlines decide to do at DEN. Are they as aggressive against competitors like AA is at DFW?

But no airline is going to build a new hub, anywhere for at least a few more years. AA has some fleet expansion with their recent Boeing and Airbus orders of some 465 firm airplanes, they will need to go somewhere. UA and AA already go head to head at their ORD hubs, do they want that at two major airports? UA/CO has a small but reasonable presence at DFW, so that really doesn't count.


User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7566 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2620 times:

Is there any reason to think that Frontier will collapse?.

User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3440 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 2535 times:

Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 13):
Is there any reason to think that Frontier will collapse?.

I don't think there is any short term risk. Others are more skeptical. ALot of Frontier fate maybe in other carriers moves and how easily Republic is to attract investors and limit its own risk. They are loosing money and don't have much cash for the airline world. Basically they need to raise money for Frontier. Republic has tons of cash but is trying to separate itself which is probably not a good sign. Also the fact that the employees would take vacation/401k cuts and future pay increases so easily probably gives some seriousness to Frontiers position. Frontier is in a hard position they have two of the lowest fare hubs neither MKE or DEN are really gems. Even last minute fares are pretty low at these airports its tough to make money with these two hubs i bet. If either southwest significantly slims down MKE or UA slims down DEN quickly Frontier has a good chance-they need airfares to go up in one of their hubs to actually make some money.

This is a new article "Republic pins Frontier Airlines’ fate to pilot vote on savings"
http://www.ibj.com/republic-pins-fro...te-on-savings/PARAMS/article/27758


User currently offlineHiflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2172 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 2521 times:

Interesting question....I would suggest a DL move to A if Southwest pays for it. I would not ignore the new UA...old UA would have done nothing...new guys not so much....they have worked off A before with TED...perhaps locking down a couple intl gates may be in order. Southwest gonna have a few more spare ac soon with the merger. Rest of the carriers....prolly business as usual as they have their hands full at their own hubs. MKE different animal...smack in between MPS and ORD....easy to pick off from those....unless DL does more downsize MSP...hmmmm

User currently offlineLambertman From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2074 posts, RR: 36
Reply 16, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 2 days ago) and read 2455 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 6):
I think that the U.S. economy has been quite dismal the last few years, yet we've seen UA, F9, and WN all having hubs in DEN, and all showing profits. I don't think any airline is going to leave DEN anytime soon, and I think that F9 has lots of life and a long ways to go before they go away.

If they are showing profits (the airlines), its not attributed to Denver. It's fairly common knowledge that Denver has been a financial bloodbath for United, Frontier, and Southwest. Denver went from being United's most profitable hub (on per seat basis, I'd assume) to its least profitable all after the Southwest developments. Even Southwest when asked about Denver's performance has hedged with quotes like, "we knew Denver would be competitive".

If Frontier were to leave Southwest and United would add back something in the range of 20 to 40% of the seats lost. I'm not implying it would be a catastrophic loss for the airport but it would be a noticeable loss, for sure.

Denver just doesn't have the demand to support three hubs. Like I said with Milwaukee, which is coming true it appears, the rubber will eventually meet the road.


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