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TOL News Thread  
User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1669 times:

So obviously the major story to start this out is that regarding the DB Schenker/BAX Global hub. It was made official today that the domestic air operations will end September 1st. They will transition to all ground transportation in the US.

Story from the local rag up there: http://www.toledoblade.com/local/201...-Toledo-Express-700-jobs-lost.html

The one uncertainty at this point are the international flights operated by Qantas (via Atlas) to Sydney and by Emirates (via Atlas) from Hong Kong and to Frankfurt/Dubai. Schenker only paid for a portion of the cargo space on those flights, so they are probable to remain as the capacity is opened for other customers.

Other news from the Airport Committee meeting today, via FlyTOL.com: http://www.flytol.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=21

Allegiant had an 89% load factor for June.

American had an 83% load factor for June, 4 points above system average.

Cargo movements so far for the year is up 4M pounds over 2010, but still far from the 2008 YTD numbers.

The Port Authority will be filing for a SCASD grant this year with Denver via Frontier. The other targets will be PHL, CLT, IAD and LGA as a back up.

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3104 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1631 times:

Quoting ouboy79 (Thread starter):
It was made official today that the domestic air operations will end September 1st.

Courtesy: WTVG-TV - Video Report Available

BAX Global Layoffs Expected

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvg/story?section=news/local&id=8265391


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2757 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1574 times:

Quoting ouboy79 (Thread starter):
The Port Authority will be filing for a SCASD grant this year with Denver via Frontier.

It seems that there is an awfully lot of places concerning SCASD, DEN, and F9......  .... ?


User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3289 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1561 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
It seems that there is an awfully lot of places concerning SCASD, DEN, and F9

The current business model for F9 relies heavily on grants, subsidies, incentives, or direct payments of some kind. IF they get the grant, F9 will fly here until the money is gone, then retreat back to DTW.


User currently onlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9330 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1528 times:

I hinted this development in another thread. Schenker was losing money on this operation and had to pull the plug. Rumors about the clsoing of the US domestic air operation came about a few weeks ago.

Next day is dominated by FX and UPS and there#s hardly a chance for any one else, they are simply put out of the market, especially when it is a foreign owned corporation.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1515 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
It seems that there is an awfully lot of places concerning SCASD, DEN, and F9......  .... ?

Might as well subsidize the whole airline. LOL

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 3):
The current business model for F9 relies heavily on grants, subsidies, incentives, or direct payments of some kind. IF they get the grant, F9 will fly here until the money is gone, then retreat back to DTW.

Could always hope they find a way to make it work in TOL after the money is gone, after what a year or 18 months it'll take. Maybe. If F9 doesn't work out, at least they were smart on the backups...UA to IAD, US to CLT or PHL, and someone to LGA...probably AA.

I for one would be happy to see F9 there as it would allow me to fly in to TOL without paying out the wazoo.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 4):

I hinted this development in another thread. Schenker was losing money on this operation and had to pull the plug. Rumors about the clsoing of the US domestic air operation came about a few weeks ago.

Next day is dominated by FX and UPS and there#s hardly a chance for any one else, they are simply put out of the market, especially when it is a foreign owned corporation.

Yup, there were reports in the Financial Times in the middle June that hinted at this. They are moving around 1.2 million pounds a night, so the demand for the type of freight they haul will need to go somewhere. I wouldn't be shocked to see some other company come in and pick up certain pieces of the TOL operation - at least on the domestic side. Internationally, the Qantas and Emirates flights will likely continue as long they are able to arrange for someone else to do the ground handling in TOL as well as find another partner to fill up the other 35-50% of the aircraft.


User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3289 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1462 times:

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 5):
If F9 doesn't work out, at least they were smart on the backups

I like the backups better, TBH. I have thought US to CLT to be the best shot, with UA to IAD second.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6606 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1457 times:

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 6):

I like the backups better, TBH. I have thought US to CLT to be the best shot, with UA to IAD second.


I agree. TOL needs service to the East....not the West. F9 could work since no one flies TOL-DEN and WN isn't likely to fly it either.


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3739 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1457 times:

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 5):
Could always hope they find a way to make it work in TOL after the money is gone, after what a year or 18 months it'll take. Maybe. If F9 doesn't work out, at least they were smart on the backups...UA to IAD, US to CLT or PHL, and someone to LGA...probably AA.

Not to sound pessimistic, but if US Airways hasn't returned to stronger Midwestern airports like GRR, MSN, FWA, and EVV, why would they serve TOL?

Yes, US has a huge gaping hole when it comes to small Midwestern markets on their route map. Still, I don't think that they are in a rush to return to markets that they orphaned after the PIT dehubbing.

Quoting ouboy79 (Thread starter):
American had an 83% load factor for June, 4 points above system average.

Good to hear that both they and G4 are doing well at TOL. Maybe Eagle could retry DFW if the fourth ORD is successful?



Primary Airport: FWA/Alternate Airport: DTW/Not employed by the FWACAA or their partners
User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3104 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1431 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 8):
Yes, US has a huge gaping hole when it comes to small Midwestern markets on their route map.

Add to that JetBlue would have to plead guilty for overtly avoiding small or large Midwestern markets.


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1430 times:

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 6):
I like the backups better, TBH. I have thought US to CLT to be the best shot, with UA to IAD second.

I agree. Like PNS said, TOL needs east bound service. I would have preferred UA to IAD over any of them. However, UA has always been reluctant to come back to TOL since they left in '93. Perhaps after almost 20 years thing have changed.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 8):
Not to sound pessimistic, but if US Airways hasn't returned to stronger Midwestern airports like GRR, MSN, FWA, and EVV, why would they serve TOL?

TOL was always a decently good market for them, but Shuttle America screwed it up with their horrible efficiency. TOL was pretty rich in CP's flying so it was doing very well with yields - well until AirTran came in. However, I don't think US will bite as they have had no interest in resuming service to the Great Lakes airports that they've cut.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 8):
Good to hear that both they and G4 are doing well at TOL. Maybe Eagle could retry DFW if the fourth ORD is successful?

I would definitely love to see that, but the lack of suitable equipment is going to keep it from happening. The economics must be just right from FWA, but TOL was always weight restricted when they operated the route. So they are going to need something with more legs to make the trip before they go down that road.


User currently offlineATLgaUSA From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 144 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1397 times:

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 6):

I like the backups better, TBH. I have thought US to CLT to be the best shot, with UA to IAD second.

If DL couldn't make ATL work, US won't be able to make CLT work (once the subsidy runs out).


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 1352 times:

Quoting ATLgaUSA (Reply 11):
If DL couldn't make ATL work, US won't be able to make CLT work (once the subsidy runs out).

There is a difference between "couldn't make it work" and "didn't want to make it work". TOL-ATL was a relatively strong market for decades. The market typically averaged around 180 pax a day when they were only running RJs on the route 3-4 times a day. Then they decided to stop over flying CVG and did a very gradual pull down by offering horribly timed, mid-day flights. Then CVG became to expensive to operate with an RJ. Then they wanted to get rid of the Saabs, so they made a pointless move to add MSP. If they had done ATL instead of MSP, there is a better chance the flights would still be operating. However, they probably decided they can easily serve the market through DTW - even though TOL could likely fill at least a couple flights to ATL a day based on past history.


User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3289 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1279 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 7):
F9 could work since no one flies TOL-DEN and WN isn't likely to fly it either.

Westbound service with connections is plenty served by AA via ORD. Its not like there's a ton of TOL-DEN O&D traffic.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 8):
Not to sound pessimistic, but if US Airways hasn't returned to stronger Midwestern airports like GRR, MSN, FWA, and EVV, why would they serve TOL?

Because the port authority is applying for a SCASD grant, and has suddenly shown a willingness to provide real incentives to attract service.

Quoting ATLgaUSA (Reply 11):
If DL couldn't make ATL work, US won't be able to make CLT work (once the subsidy runs out).

US has a lower cost per pax over CLT that DL does by a long shot. DL knows there's O&D to ATL in the market, but would have to seriously discount the remaining seats to fill them. The Port destroyed the market by bringing in bottom feeders like Allegiant and Direct Air. TOL locals only fly out of TOL when it's cheap, otherwise they drive to DTW. Attempting to bring in another carrier into TOL will probably be futile. I expect AA to be gone within 24 months unless they can keep yields well above average.


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Reply 14, posted (3 years 1 month 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 1064 times:

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 13):
Westbound service with connections is plenty served by AA via ORD. Its not like there's a ton of TOL-DEN O&D traffic.

AA definitely has the market served appropriately right now, but the addition of F9 to DEN would obviously help to bring some pax back that others are turning to Spirit, Southwest, Delta, and Frontier in DTW.

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 13):
Because the port authority is applying for a SCASD grant, and has suddenly shown a willingness to provide real incentives to attract service.

They have taken too long to get on board with doing appropriate revenue guarantees to expand/secure service. The SCASD grants they had before were just handled poorly and the companies that assisted with the bids didn't do their part either.

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 13):
US has a lower cost per pax over CLT that DL does by a long shot. DL knows there's O&D to ATL in the market, but would have to seriously discount the remaining seats to fill them. The Port destroyed the market by bringing in bottom feeders like Allegiant and Direct Air. TOL locals only fly out of TOL when it's cheap, otherwise they drive to DTW.

The problem has always been pricing pressure from DTW impacting how TOL performs. Any time an LCC has come in, the airport has definitely seen an upswing in traffic. However, you could also say that AirTran (both times) didn't help with the retention of DL and US. G4 and Direct Air provide a service that doesn't compete with really anyone except for Spirit in DTW. If DL still operated to TOL, they would hold their own in number of pax going to MCO even with G4 there.

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 13):
Attempting to bring in another carrier into TOL will probably be futile. I expect AA to be gone within 24 months unless they can keep yields well above average.

The market is very price sensitive so you have to back the service up with nonstops to high O&D markets to make it work. MSP wasn't one. Which is why your employer pulled out and the station's agents you managed were put out on the street, unless they were able to transfer to a different position like you were. AA has been doing well and they are wanting to fly to TOL and serve the market. Delta gave up on the market when they started cutting back ATL flights years ago.


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