flyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2096 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 14378 times:
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 10): Not really. CAK is sandwiched virtually halfway between existing WN stations in CLE and PIT.
So? Just leverages WN in that entire area. WN also flies into CMH. Why not say DAY could be on the chopping block because it's between IND and CMH?
With AirTran picking up CAK-MKE (for now), I think it will stay. CAK has an amazing following and they would have no problems filling flights without sacrificing yields and it is cheaper then running more flights into CLE.
celltower From United States of America, joined Apr 2011, 15 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 14186 times:
With the recent NK pulldown at ACY, and now FL/WN pulling out, ACY has some big problems. I can't think of anyone that would even begin to pick up the slack there. If NK can't stimulate the market with their infamous barebones fares, who can??
N471WN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1848 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 14052 times:
Actually we here in the San Fran Bay Area have WN at all three of our major airports----which are in close proximity to each other and WN is at Sacramento as well-----again my guess is that CAK is too good a market to give up....
I listed ROC because WN doesn't already fly there but they do fly to BUF, which is only 73 miles away.
I listed DAY because WN doesn't already fly there but they do fly to IND and CMH. CMH is only 71 miles away.
I listed PWM simply because it's not that big of a market. WN currently doesn'y fly to PWM, but they do fly to MHT and BOS.
I listed LEX because WN doesn't fly there, but they do fly to SDF, which is 75 miles down the road.
I listed HSV because it is not a huge market. WN doesn't fly there already and BNA and BHM are right down the road and are relatively big WN cities.
I feel most of the smaller cities that FL flies to that are already close to WN served cities should be concerned. Some are large enough and geographically unique to be fine, but others might simply be a distraction and waste of resources for WN.
A look at WN's current route map might give us clues. They tend to spread their cities out so they can make the most of each market and pull from large catchment areas.
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
rampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3202 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 13929 times:
This is similar in how WN discontinued (or never served) COS, EUG, or FAT following their acquisition of Morris Air. That was, I believe, the beginning of the transition to not take up mid-size markets (like their existing AMA, MAF, CRP) and focus instead on the larger margets. Yes, they needed to do that, but also leaving some potential on the table. COS, EUG, and FAT were stimulated by Morris Air, and would have enjoyed WN service.
rl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4938 posts, RR: 11
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 13907 times:
Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 18): I listed ROC because WN doesn't already fly there but they do fly to BUF, which is only 73 miles away.
ROC is an entirely different market than BUF, no decent minded business traveler would fly into BUF for a meeting in downtown Rochester, WN would be leaving money on the table there along with handing over a decent Florida market (well served by FL now) to someone like B6.
ROC is actually a case where I think WN could be bigger than FL was, with something like 2x MDW 3x BWI 2x ATL 1x MCO 1x TPA or FLL or 2nd MCO for a total of 8x.
DAY is a similar case but to a lesser extent.
Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 18): A look at WN's current route map might give us clues. They tend to spread their cities out so they can make the most of each market and pull from large catchment areas
Thats not so much the case anymore though, with regions having multiple cities and also some smaller cities being served such as GSP and CHS. GSP is in the same boat as a LEX HSV and PWM really.
For leisure service the 75 mile argument works, but they wont get the business traveler which is WN's focus.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
kingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1339 posts, RR: 16
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 13837 times:
Quoting rl757pvd (Reply 21): Thats not so much the case anymore though, with regions having multiple cities and also some smaller cities being served such as GSP and CHS. GSP is in the same boat as a LEX HSV and PWM really.
Yes and no, and I knew someone would mention South Carolina. Outside of Southern California, New England and the San Francsico Bay area, it is still kind of the case. Look at how WN's cities are spread out on their route map.
WN likes big markets where they can put in a bunch of flights. I know ROC and BUF are two different markets, but does WN want ROC? Probably, but WN will be making tough decisions about where they want to fight and put precious resources.
These markets that have been announced as closing - why wasn't WN there to begin with?
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
: If the subsidy stays then, like BKG, I think ICT will stay. Are the folks in ICT watching what happens closely? You bet.
: Just out of curiosity, why didn't you include TYS on your list? I think it is actually the best analog to GSP.
: Its not like there are scarce resources with this merger, there are already airplanes flying there and no planes are getting parked. Any cutting is g
: Yes, Morris Air served ANC. WN axed it. You would be surprised at what I have found in my area. A surprising amount of FWA-area business travelers ma
: I didn't say scarce. You did. I said precious. It is a business and planes/cities/routes cost money. Money is precious to any business.
: CLT will stay, I'd bet it even grows. My memory is that the ICT subsidy was recently extended for 12 more months. I'd put ICT and DSM in the same cat
: It's too bad for AVL, PHF, ACY and MLI. But I still feel any close in cities or real small markets are at risk of losing out in this merger. And I sti
: Same difference in this context... WN has already been reducing service at nearly every existing WN market since 2005, and those reductions have gone
: I think it's all about ATL and connecting it to existing WN markets.
: No it isn't. WN isn't in business to lose money. Scarce is not precious. Precious is about making the smartest decisions with your resources.
: Fine, take my exact words and swap thw words out, the point remains the same in what i said....
: That is exactly what I was thinking. Does anybody have any information on this?
: I would guess much of this is the removing of aircraft from service to transition them over to WN... that will probably take out anywhere between 6-1
: If resources weren't precious then AVL, ACK, MLI and PHF would not close. Simple as that. What markets that were profitable (or marginally profitable)
: How about before, during or after this weeks earnings call? Is that early enough? Does anyone know how many aircraft were used to serve the cities th
: PHF simply doesn't work with WN having ORF. I would bet you are correct on the other 3 cities not being profitable for FL
: I still don't think you will see any net expansion in ATL, maybe even contraction. Nope, but the fleet looks to be negative when coupled with the PHL
: I have heard 7 planes at a time. Maybe the other planes will be used to increase their on-time percentage. They could add a couple of operational spa
: Agreed. CLT will stay, and so will MIA. WN will grow in both those markets. Nothing extraordinary, but it will give them a presence. From both I coul
: The PHL reductions are WN aircraft, and WN aircraft picked up some FL- Florida routes in WN cities (like CMH-MCO) The Jan sched with WN was near flat
: Doesn't FL fly 2-3 PHF-LGA's? This will free up a couple of LGA slots, and you can probably bet they aren't going to ORF. Also frees up some space in
: Agreed. I could see TPA-MIA as well.
: It really depends on what they plan to do with ATL. If the gate space exists, I can easily see ten aircraft worth of new flying from WN cities to ATL
: It's a shame about AVL, FL keeps DL honest on that route.
: Here's a huge reading of the tea leave - you don't have a clue one way or the other unless you are running Southwest Airlines. But thanks for trying
: The free market keeps airlines honest on any route, by allowing airlines to charge what the market will bear.
: I hope you're right, but I've come to expect the worst when it comes to service to/from Richmond. I hope this takes RIC off the radar screen to be cu
: Fl added CAK MKE so the addition of a route there perhaps indicates continued interest. At ACY, the ATL subsidy is to expire, and wasn't going to be r
: Some of the NK pulldown has to do with multiple NK aircraft going for checks in Q3... We were told to expect things back to somewhat normal by Nov ag
: Well now WN has RIC. There will cerainly be some tweaks but I think that with the PHF closing RIC is safe for the time being. WN to MDW might just ki
: I guess I'm late to the party...I assumed Eagle was still flying STL-RIC? I flew that route a few times in summer 2005...but that was six years ago,
: AA closed its hub in STL in April 2010 so there are no more Eagle or Connection routes out of STL anymore.
: FL currently has 2 gates in CLT. If they plan it right, they could easily do I'm thinking: MDW: 2x ATL: 3x (already flown by FL) BWI: 3x (already flo
: I think you'll see something more in tune with what you saw when WN open LaGuardia (or Boston for that matter). Something like 4-5x BWI/ATL, 5-6x MDW
: The only "news" I see here is that FL is cancelling cities instead of WN cancelling them later on... Otherwise, no surprises and I'm sure there will b
: Why would WN "open" CLT like it opened BOS and LGA rather than like it opened GSP or MKE?
: WN will not be a player in CLT. I would look for something very similar to what they had in IAD. Prior to the FL merger, they would have had a maximum
: IAD has underperformed exceptionally. Why would CLT be similarly bad?
: It would have been better if NK would have made it possible for ACY-MYR-ORD year round, and if not asking too much, shorter layover in MYR if ACY-ORD
: @rl757pvd: Your math is incorrect because you are assuming it is a 1 month mod on these airplanes. Unless they are doing early C-checks (which they w
: I'm actually starting to think that WN will axe CLT-ATL in favor of BWI. I don't know why I believe that, I just do. I also think that WN will go eas
: You might want to reference a map. Probably not. They probably don't plan on being a major player in CLT, and even with a lack of gates there is much
: How so? Our load factors are 90% across the board month after month. We may only have 8 flights there but they are always full and all great money ma
: This is true. I completly forgot about the hard stands. Plently of room there.
: I'm willing to bet money, that all the FL employees in PHF found out the day they went in. Sounds typical of FL. My heart goes out to them. I hope the
: Really? I was under the impression PHF had a fairly good chance of being kept, or at the very least given a fighting chance to prove itself in the WN
: Fair enough MAH, I do agree with you. I should have stated that FL keeps the route at an artifically lower cost than it truly should be priced at. Ho
: The consolidation will continue for quite a while I would suspect. The conditions in the US market are hardly ideal, and after years of a strongly com
: WN hasn't grown and, indeed, has dropped a number of cities despite no slots, plenty of gates and no congestion to speak of. Where else is that true?
: However, the two airports are 90 miles apart and serve very different areas. PNS may not survive, but it won't be because of ECP. And really, if WN c
: Not questioning your statement just asking, is WN able to paint at all the outsourced MX bases. They have GSO, IND, DAL (not outsourced), GEG, PAE an
: Well, this sucks for AVL. FL did very well with the particular operation it had here to MCO and TPA. But it was never going to work in the WN model, e
: With low enough fares, I think 2-3 daily ATL and/or BNA might actually get enough local traffic to work. It's about 2 and a half or 3 hours to Nashvi
: But given fuel prices and WN's overall cost structure, I don't think they can offer low enough fares to create enough O+D on such a short haul. I thi
: The question for me is how much O&D they'd need to offer, say, 3 daily flights to ATL. I think something like 80 PDEW might be on the very high e
: That's not entirely true, as we see monopoly and/or cartel pricing in routes with limited competition or no competition at all. The distance between
: Here are my opinions... I do not expect WN to have seasonal stations, even int'l ones... ABE : MCO (2) ; Dropped April ACY : ATL (2) ; Announced as cl
: Do you see GSP/CHS - which are similar to many of the cities you see dropped - getting dropped?
: As you know, there is a big difference. The biggest difference is that WN made those decisions. AVL/GSP is a great example. Which got dropped? WN's d
: I don't see much difference between GSP and TYS. Do you?
: Doesn't GSP have 6 or 8 flights on WN and TYS has less than 1 on FL? That's a really big difference.
: Why? FL opened TYS as FL opens small cities. WN opened GSP as WN opens small cities.
: Small point here, but yes, Morris Air did serve ANC, but I wouldn't classify it as a small market equivalent to COS, EUG, or FAT. Small population, y
: You might want to reference a map. What else can FL realistically do from TYS outside of Florida flying? It kills me to see people say " well FL only
: With sandwiches that size, BDL would be considered "sandwiched" between BOS and LGA This sandwhich is kinda lopsided too.... PIT-CLE = 124 miles PIT-
: MDT and BWI are a huge catchment area. Central PA has a huge population that often gets overlooked. That said, I'm still undecided if MDT will stay.
: FWIW (not much now), AVL also has service to TPA. Haven't the FL flights been a trial period? HSV is an interesting case. While WN could conceivably
: Uh, no. CAK is about 40 miles from CLE and about 120 Miles from PIT Yes, but there are a heck of a lot more people living in the San Francisco/Oaklan
: Seriously? You will probably see DL replace mainline flying with regional flying in an effort to increase yield, but its extremely unlikely that eith
: Which MSAs did you add to get 5 million? I added Cleveland, Akron and Canton and it summed a little over 3 million to form "Greater Cleveland". I did
: I agree. Also from PHL, ATL will be the only reasonable connection as there is no PHL-BWI. I also am reasoning that EWR-BWI and maybe LGA-BWI could b
: My guess is you will see a more florida-centric operation out of CAK and a more business like network out of CLE. CAK - MCO, TPA, FLL. I think MDW BWI
: Here is the problem with that statement. Could WN take these 10 cities that are on the bubble and multiply their flights to 7 or 8 from 1 or 2? Yes,
: What do you define as the "season"? They currently fly AVL-TPA for what is the seasonal "peak" for AVL-Florida routes, summer and fall (just as FL di
: I wouldn't be suprised if DL leaves PHF. The ONLY reason DL ever launched PHF was to attack FL, otherwise they were quite happy at ORF. Assuming WN e
: TOL isn't really a great comparison though. In the case of TOL, DL's second largest hub was just 40mi up the road so there isn't really a great need
: It seems like DL has dropped a good chunk of DL/US duopolies in the southeast lately. HHH and LYH come to mind, though the former was as much related