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AirTran To Discontinue Newport News  
User currently offlinelesmainwaring From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 539 posts, RR: 3
Posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13935 times:

Figured it was just a matter of time - I thought PHF would lose out, being mid-way between ORF and RIC.

http://insidebiz.com/news/southwest-...g-airtran-service-out-newport-news


I want something under my wheels thats plenty long and mighty dry --- Vern Demarest
165 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineglobalflyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 901 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13908 times:

Sad but I think we will all see more cuts coming. The article also mentions Asheville, Atlantic City and Moline being discontinued.


Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1297 posts, RR: 18
Reply 2, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13905 times:
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The article also mentions that they are cutting Asheville, N.C., Atlantic City and Moline, Ill.


Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1297 posts, RR: 18
Reply 3, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13903 times:
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I agree with GlobalFlyer. This is just the first of many smaller markets that are going to get cut.


Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13879 times:

Sad news. I flew FL from MDW-ATL-PHF and back on a trip to Williamsburg in 1999 (my Chicago years), and loved the simple yet modern terminal facilities. And wasn't PHF expanding their terminal?

I also see this as an indicator that a CLE vs. CAK decision is coming soon - and it probably won't be in CAK's favor.



I don't work for FWA, their tenants, or their ad agency. But I still love FWA.
User currently offlineNutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 486 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13882 times:

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 2):
The article also mentions that they are cutting Asheville, N.C., Atlantic City and Moline, Ill.

Are these all 717 markets?



American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offline727LOVER From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5961 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13847 times:

I call BS, bad economy and fuel prices? What other markets has WN ever left because of those reasons?


Listen Betty, don't start up with your 'White Zone' s*** again.
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6729 posts, RR: 18
Reply 7, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13846 times:

Ha.. the article mentions "No news on how this will affect Norfolk International Airport'..

Uhm.. well, can we say new service to Atlanta and perhaps increased service to Orlando and/or BWI? I don't see how it could possibly HURT Norfolk....



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineN471WN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1490 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13796 times:
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Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 4):
I also see this as an indicator that a CLE vs. CAK decision is coming soon - and it probably won't be in CAK's favor.

My guess is both will stay---really different markets geographically


User currently offlinecelltower From United States of America, joined Apr 2011, 8 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13777 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 4):
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 4):
I also see this as an indicator that a CLE vs. CAK decision is coming soon - and it probably won't be in CAK's favor.

I sure hope not. CAK is a wonderful airport to fly in and out of....


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13725 times:

Quoting N471WN (Reply 8):
My guess is both will stay---really different markets geographically

Not really. CAK is sandwiched virtually halfway between existing WN stations in CLE and PIT.

And don't forget those constant CO/UA CLE dehubbing rumors.



I don't work for FWA, their tenants, or their ad agency. But I still love FWA.
User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1297 posts, RR: 18
Reply 11, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13693 times:
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I tend to think CAK will be kept, but who knows. This does open the discussion and obvious possibilities of other smaller markets getting cut.

http://airtran.innosked.com/(S(ss2w1s3i1gx4gj455crjgk45))/Default.aspx

I believe HSV, LEX, FNT, ICT, BMI, CRW, TYS, ROC, MDT, ABE, DAY, & PWM should all be concerned.



Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
User currently onlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 1986 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13532 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 10):
Not really. CAK is sandwiched virtually halfway between existing WN stations in CLE and PIT.

So? Just leverages WN in that entire area. WN also flies into CMH. Why not say DAY could be on the chopping block because it's between IND and CMH?

With AirTran picking up CAK-MKE (for now), I think it will stay. CAK has an amazing following and they would have no problems filling flights without sacrificing yields and it is cheaper then running more flights into CLE.


User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4630 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 13494 times:

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 11):
I believe HSV, LEX, FNT, ICT, BMI, CRW, TYS, ROC, MDT, ABE, DAY, & PWM should all be concerned.

The cities that I dont think should be too concerned are ROC and probably DAY and PWM

Safe Bets
ROC - BWI, MDW, ATL, MCO, TPA
DAY - BWI, MDW, ATL MCO, TPA

Moderate bets
PWM - BWI, MDW, MCO
LEX - BWI, MDW, ATL, MCO, TPA
HSV - BWI, MCO, HOU, (ATL?)

The cities close to BWI and MDW are going to be a tough call.

I think the target will be being able to achieve and support 6x daily flights



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinecelltower From United States of America, joined Apr 2011, 8 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13340 times:

With the recent NK pulldown at ACY, and now FL/WN pulling out, ACY has some big problems. I can't think of anyone that would even begin to pick up the slack there. If NK can't stimulate the market with their infamous barebones fares, who can??

User currently offlineN471WN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1490 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13206 times:
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Actually we here in the San Fran Bay Area have WN at all three of our major airports----which are in close proximity to each other and WN is at Sacramento as well-----again my guess is that CAK is too good a market to give up....

User currently offlineclemsonaj From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 265 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13204 times:

I was really hoping WN would keep the Florida only routes. I wonder if this is an indication that they were just not making money, or won't be sustainable in the WN system?

User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6839 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13124 times:

Quoting lesmainwaring (Thread starter):

Figured it was just a matter of time - I thought PHF would lose out, being mid-way between ORF and RIC.

This is huge for reading the tea leaves.

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 2):

The article also mentions that they are cutting Asheville, N.C., Atlantic City and Moline, Ill.

No surprises there.

Quoting Nutsaboutplanes (Reply 5):
Are these all 717 markets?

They must be parking 717s. There is too much flying disappearing for anything else to be happening...unless it is 735s.

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 11):
I tend to think CAK will be kept

I am very confident it will.

Quoting celltower (Reply 14):
With the recent NK pulldown at ACY, and now FL/WN pulling out, ACY has some big problems.

Not as big as PHF. They are officially screwed. They are going to be moving down into the world of Allegiant. I can't see DL and US staying long term without FL there. IMHO. It will turn into TOL.


User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1297 posts, RR: 18
Reply 18, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13119 times:
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Quoting rl757pvd (Reply 13):
Safe Bets
ROC - BWI, MDW, ATL, MCO, TPA
DAY - BWI, MDW, ATL MCO, TPA

I listed ROC because WN doesn't already fly there but they do fly to BUF, which is only 73 miles away.
I listed DAY because WN doesn't already fly there but they do fly to IND and CMH. CMH is only 71 miles away.

Quoting rl757pvd (Reply 13):
Moderate bets
PWM - BWI, MDW, MCO
LEX - BWI, MDW, ATL, MCO, TPA
HSV - BWI, MCO, HOU, (ATL?)

I listed PWM simply because it's not that big of a market. WN currently doesn'y fly to PWM, but they do fly to MHT and BOS.
I listed LEX because WN doesn't fly there, but they do fly to SDF, which is 75 miles down the road.
I listed HSV because it is not a huge market. WN doesn't fly there already and BNA and BHM are right down the road and are relatively big WN cities.

I feel most of the smaller cities that FL flies to that are already close to WN served cities should be concerned. Some are large enough and geographically unique to be fine, but others might simply be a distraction and waste of resources for WN.

A look at WN's current route map might give us clues. They tend to spread their cities out so they can make the most of each market and pull from large catchment areas.



Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
User currently offlinerampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3067 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13083 times:

This is similar in how WN discontinued (or never served) COS, EUG, or FAT following their acquisition of Morris Air. That was, I believe, the beginning of the transition to not take up mid-size markets (like their existing AMA, MAF, CRP) and focus instead on the larger margets. Yes, they needed to do that, but also leaving some potential on the table. COS, EUG, and FAT were stimulated by Morris Air, and would have enjoyed WN service.

-Rampart


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6839 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13061 times:

Quoting rampart (Reply 19):

This is similar in how WN discontinued (or never served) COS, EUG, or FAT following their acquisition of Morris Air.

ANC too? right?


User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4630 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13061 times:

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 18):
I listed ROC because WN doesn't already fly there but they do fly to BUF, which is only 73 miles away.

ROC is an entirely different market than BUF, no decent minded business traveler would fly into BUF for a meeting in downtown Rochester, WN would be leaving money on the table there along with handing over a decent Florida market (well served by FL now) to someone like B6.

ROC is actually a case where I think WN could be bigger than FL was, with something like 2x MDW 3x BWI 2x ATL 1x MCO 1x TPA or FLL or 2nd MCO for a total of 8x.

DAY is a similar case but to a lesser extent.

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 18):
A look at WN's current route map might give us clues. They tend to spread their cities out so they can make the most of each market and pull from large catchment areas

Thats not so much the case anymore though, with regions having multiple cities and also some smaller cities being served such as GSP and CHS. GSP is in the same boat as a LEX HSV and PWM really.

For leisure service the 75 mile argument works, but they wont get the business traveler which is WN's focus.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1297 posts, RR: 18
Reply 22, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13062 times:
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AVL is losing out to its proximity to GSP that WN recently inaugurated. I wonder how CLT plays into WN's future.


Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
User currently offlinesw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6265 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 13020 times:

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 11):
HSV
Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 11):
ICT

I don't know...I think these two might make it, especially ICT.


User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1297 posts, RR: 18
Reply 24, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 12991 times:
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Quoting rl757pvd (Reply 21):
Thats not so much the case anymore though, with regions having multiple cities and also some smaller cities being served such as GSP and CHS. GSP is in the same boat as a LEX HSV and PWM really.

Yes and no, and I knew someone would mention South Carolina. Outside of Southern California, New England and the San Francsico Bay area, it is still kind of the case. Look at how WN's cities are spread out on their route map.

WN likes big markets where they can put in a bunch of flights. I know ROC and BUF are two different markets, but does WN want ROC? Probably, but WN will be making tough decisions about where they want to fight and put precious resources.

These markets that have been announced as closing - why wasn't WN there to begin with?



Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
25 kingcavalier : If the subsidy stays then, like BKG, I think ICT will stay. Are the folks in ICT watching what happens closely? You bet.
26 cubsrule : Just out of curiosity, why didn't you include TYS on your list? I think it is actually the best analog to GSP.
27 rl757pvd : Its not like there are scarce resources with this merger, there are already airplanes flying there and no planes are getting parked. Any cutting is g
28 FWAERJ : Yes, Morris Air served ANC. WN axed it. You would be surprised at what I have found in my area. A surprising amount of FWA-area business travelers ma
29 kingcavalier : I didn't say scarce. You did. I said precious. It is a business and planes/cities/routes cost money. Money is precious to any business.
30 enilria : CLT will stay, I'd bet it even grows. My memory is that the ICT subsidy was recently extended for 12 more months. I'd put ICT and DSM in the same cat
31 kingcavalier : It's too bad for AVL, PHF, ACY and MLI. But I still feel any close in cities or real small markets are at risk of losing out in this merger. And I sti
32 rl757pvd : Same difference in this context... WN has already been reducing service at nearly every existing WN market since 2005, and those reductions have gone
33 Post contains images kingcavalier : I think it's all about ATL and connecting it to existing WN markets.
34 kingcavalier : No it isn't. WN isn't in business to lose money. Scarce is not precious. Precious is about making the smartest decisions with your resources.
35 rl757pvd : Fine, take my exact words and swap thw words out, the point remains the same in what i said....
36 Nutsaboutplanes : That is exactly what I was thinking. Does anybody have any information on this?
37 rl757pvd : I would guess much of this is the removing of aircraft from service to transition them over to WN... that will probably take out anywhere between 6-1
38 kingcavalier : If resources weren't precious then AVL, ACK, MLI and PHF would not close. Simple as that. What markets that were profitable (or marginally profitable)
39 WWTRAVELER99 : How about before, during or after this weeks earnings call? Is that early enough? Does anyone know how many aircraft were used to serve the cities th
40 smoot4208 : PHF simply doesn't work with WN having ORF. I would bet you are correct on the other 3 cities not being profitable for FL
41 enilria : I still don't think you will see any net expansion in ATL, maybe even contraction. Nope, but the fleet looks to be negative when coupled with the PHL
42 WWTRAVELER99 : I have heard 7 planes at a time. Maybe the other planes will be used to increase their on-time percentage. They could add a couple of operational spa
43 MAH4546 : Agreed. CLT will stay, and so will MIA. WN will grow in both those markets. Nothing extraordinary, but it will give them a presence. From both I coul
44 rl757pvd : The PHL reductions are WN aircraft, and WN aircraft picked up some FL- Florida routes in WN cities (like CMH-MCO) The Jan sched with WN was near flat
45 Post contains images OzarkD9S : Doesn't FL fly 2-3 PHF-LGA's? This will free up a couple of LGA slots, and you can probably bet they aren't going to ORF. Also frees up some space in
46 cubsrule : Agreed. I could see TPA-MIA as well.
47 ScottB : It really depends on what they plan to do with ATL. If the gate space exists, I can easily see ten aircraft worth of new flying from WN cities to ATL
48 TeamInTheSky : It's a shame about AVL, FL keeps DL honest on that route.
49 lesmainwaring : Here's a huge reading of the tea leave - you don't have a clue one way or the other unless you are running Southwest Airlines. But thanks for trying
50 MAH4546 : The free market keeps airlines honest on any route, by allowing airlines to charge what the market will bear.
51 kric777 : I hope you're right, but I've come to expect the worst when it comes to service to/from Richmond. I hope this takes RIC off the radar screen to be cu
52 Flytravel : Fl added CAK MKE so the addition of a route there perhaps indicates continued interest. At ACY, the ATL subsidy is to expire, and wasn't going to be r
53 nkops : Some of the NK pulldown has to do with multiple NK aircraft going for checks in Q3... We were told to expect things back to somewhat normal by Nov ag
54 OzarkD9S : Well now WN has RIC. There will cerainly be some tweaks but I think that with the PHF closing RIC is safe for the time being. WN to MDW might just ki
55 Post contains images kric777 : I guess I'm late to the party...I assumed Eagle was still flying STL-RIC? I flew that route a few times in summer 2005...but that was six years ago,
56 CIDFlyer : AA closed its hub in STL in April 2010 so there are no more Eagle or Connection routes out of STL anymore.
57 Post contains images USAirALB : FL currently has 2 gates in CLT. If they plan it right, they could easily do I'm thinking: MDW: 2x ATL: 3x (already flown by FL) BWI: 3x (already flo
58 DeltAirlines : I think you'll see something more in tune with what you saw when WN open LaGuardia (or Boston for that matter). Something like 4-5x BWI/ATL, 5-6x MDW
59 Post contains images SANFan : The only "news" I see here is that FL is cancelling cities instead of WN cancelling them later on... Otherwise, no surprises and I'm sure there will b
60 cubsrule : Why would WN "open" CLT like it opened BOS and LGA rather than like it opened GSP or MKE?
61 smoot4208 : WN will not be a player in CLT. I would look for something very similar to what they had in IAD. Prior to the FL merger, they would have had a maximum
62 cubsrule : IAD has underperformed exceptionally. Why would CLT be similarly bad?
63 Flytravel : It would have been better if NK would have made it possible for ACY-MYR-ORD year round, and if not asking too much, shorter layover in MYR if ACY-ORD
64 enilria : @rl757pvd: Your math is incorrect because you are assuming it is a 1 month mod on these airplanes. Unless they are doing early C-checks (which they w
65 USAirALB : I'm actually starting to think that WN will axe CLT-ATL in favor of BWI. I don't know why I believe that, I just do. I also think that WN will go eas
66 kcrwflyer : You might want to reference a map. Probably not. They probably don't plan on being a major player in CLT, and even with a lack of gates there is much
67 flyiguy : How so? Our load factors are 90% across the board month after month. We may only have 8 flights there but they are always full and all great money ma
68 USAirALB : This is true. I completly forgot about the hard stands. Plently of room there.
69 usairways787 : I'm willing to bet money, that all the FL employees in PHF found out the day they went in. Sounds typical of FL. My heart goes out to them. I hope the
70 Post contains images SurfandSnow : Really? I was under the impression PHF had a fairly good chance of being kept, or at the very least given a fighting chance to prove itself in the WN
71 TeamInTheSky : Fair enough MAH, I do agree with you. I should have stated that FL keeps the route at an artifically lower cost than it truly should be priced at. Ho
72 IndianicWorld : The consolidation will continue for quite a while I would suspect. The conditions in the US market are hardly ideal, and after years of a strongly com
73 cubsrule : WN hasn't grown and, indeed, has dropped a number of cities despite no slots, plenty of gates and no congestion to speak of. Where else is that true?
74 FlyPNS1 : However, the two airports are 90 miles apart and serve very different areas. PNS may not survive, but it won't be because of ECP. And really, if WN c
75 WWTRAVELER99 : Not questioning your statement just asking, is WN able to paint at all the outsourced MX bases. They have GSO, IND, DAL (not outsourced), GEG, PAE an
76 AVLAirlineFreq : Well, this sucks for AVL. FL did very well with the particular operation it had here to MCO and TPA. But it was never going to work in the WN model, e
77 cubsrule : With low enough fares, I think 2-3 daily ATL and/or BNA might actually get enough local traffic to work. It's about 2 and a half or 3 hours to Nashvi
78 FlyPNS1 : But given fuel prices and WN's overall cost structure, I don't think they can offer low enough fares to create enough O+D on such a short haul. I thi
79 cubsrule : The question for me is how much O&D they'd need to offer, say, 3 daily flights to ATL. I think something like 80 PDEW might be on the very high e
80 ScottB : That's not entirely true, as we see monopoly and/or cartel pricing in routes with limited competition or no competition at all. The distance between
81 enilria : Here are my opinions... I do not expect WN to have seasonal stations, even int'l ones... ABE : MCO (2) ; Dropped April ACY : ATL (2) ; Announced as cl
82 cubsrule : Do you see GSP/CHS - which are similar to many of the cities you see dropped - getting dropped?
83 enilria : As you know, there is a big difference. The biggest difference is that WN made those decisions. AVL/GSP is a great example. Which got dropped? WN's d
84 cubsrule : I don't see much difference between GSP and TYS. Do you?
85 enilria : Doesn't GSP have 6 or 8 flights on WN and TYS has less than 1 on FL? That's a really big difference.
86 cubsrule : Why? FL opened TYS as FL opens small cities. WN opened GSP as WN opens small cities.
87 rampart : Small point here, but yes, Morris Air did serve ANC, but I wouldn't classify it as a small market equivalent to COS, EUG, or FAT. Small population, y
88 kcrwflyer : You might want to reference a map. What else can FL realistically do from TYS outside of Florida flying? It kills me to see people say " well FL only
89 rl757pvd : With sandwiches that size, BDL would be considered "sandwiched" between BOS and LGA This sandwhich is kinda lopsided too.... PIT-CLE = 124 miles PIT-
90 Buddys747 : MDT and BWI are a huge catchment area. Central PA has a huge population that often gets overlooked. That said, I'm still undecided if MDT will stay.
91 AVLAirlineFreq : FWIW (not much now), AVL also has service to TPA. Haven't the FL flights been a trial period? HSV is an interesting case. While WN could conceivably
92 Post contains images F9Fan : Uh, no. CAK is about 40 miles from CLE and about 120 Miles from PIT Yes, but there are a heck of a lot more people living in the San Francisco/Oaklan
93 FutureUScapt : Seriously? You will probably see DL replace mainline flying with regional flying in an effort to increase yield, but its extremely unlikely that eith
94 Flytravel : Which MSAs did you add to get 5 million? I added Cleveland, Akron and Canton and it summed a little over 3 million to form "Greater Cleveland". I did
95 Flytravel : I agree. Also from PHL, ATL will be the only reasonable connection as there is no PHL-BWI. I also am reasoning that EWR-BWI and maybe LGA-BWI could b
96 rl757pvd : My guess is you will see a more florida-centric operation out of CAK and a more business like network out of CLE. CAK - MCO, TPA, FLL. I think MDW BWI
97 enilria : Here is the problem with that statement. Could WN take these 10 cities that are on the bubble and multiply their flights to 7 or 8 from 1 or 2? Yes,
98 AVLAirlineFreq : What do you define as the "season"? They currently fly AVL-TPA for what is the seasonal "peak" for AVL-Florida routes, summer and fall (just as FL di
99 FlyPNS1 : I wouldn't be suprised if DL leaves PHF. The ONLY reason DL ever launched PHF was to attack FL, otherwise they were quite happy at ORF. Assuming WN e
100 FutureUScapt : TOL isn't really a great comparison though. In the case of TOL, DL's second largest hub was just 40mi up the road so there isn't really a great need
101 cubsrule : It seems like DL has dropped a good chunk of DL/US duopolies in the southeast lately. HHH and LYH come to mind, though the former was as much related
102 AVLAirlineFreq : FLO is another recent example...
103 F9Fan : Tack on Erie, PA, Sandusky, Mansfield, and Amish country and you get closer. Erie is about 15 minutes closer to CLE than it is to PIT. Although there
104 FutureUScapt : All true, though I think as Cubs says those reductions you have pointed out were largely based on having too large of a gauge for those particular ma
105 cubsrule : LYH and FLO were AT7/CRJ routes for a long time.
106 enilria : On the conference call it was stated that "WN will be flat or shrink next year". I bet the latter. They are taking 20 737s or maybe more if you includ
107 smoot4208 : The US domestic market is already too saturated. While WN may grow in ATL, there still is too much capacity. You are already seeing this on the WN si
108 enilria : On the call they said there would be "3 or 4 lines of conversion work" which means 3 or 4 FL planes out of service at a time. So, that does not expla
109 smoot4208 : The small cities should go. Especially in the southeast where DL and US can connect any passenger from Florida to the northeast in one stop. ABE/MDT/
110 ScottB : It is very likely that Allegiant will move back into many of these markets, so I wouldn't be counting on that windfall to US/DL just yet...
111 kcrwflyer : What the hell kind of logic is that? Small cities should go just because they can connect anywhere on other airlines? In that case all cities should
112 enilria : They probably should be left out of the WN network, but I guess I bemoan two things. 1) This merger should never have been approved because it is not
113 FlyPNS1 : Mergers rarely benefit consumers particularly in the airline industry. Ask the people at MEM and CVG how "beneficial" the DL/NW was for them. Most of
114 enilria : To me its worse because there is rarely price competition among the legacies. Two legacies generates the same pricing as four. FL was a bull in the c
115 flyguy89 : Your argument in overly-emotional and not logical. Small cities will have to go because they will not be able to support multiple daily 737 services
116 cubsrule : The point that many of us have been trying to make - apparently unsuccessfully - is that WN wouldn't serve those markets with sub-daily Florida servi
117 kcrwflyer : My argument got just what I wanted out of someone. A logical answer, which is what you just gave me. They will go because they wont be able to suppor
118 enilria : I think there are really two parts to this. The underlying basic is that WN won't keep a domestic station with under 5-7 flights. I think the "small
119 FlyPNS1 : But FL's pricing wasn't sustainable in the current environment. So they either would have slowly died on the vine or been merged with WN. Somehow I d
120 cubsrule : . . . especially when NK will still serve CRW.
121 enilria : I don't really agree with that. F9 is under far more competitive pressure for far longer than FL and they still limp onward. I think you sell FL shor
122 cubsrule : Agreed, but I don't know how you capture that quantitatively and craft a rule.
123 FlyPNS1 : F9 survives because it has a wealthy parent (RAH) keeping it alive using it's fixed fee business. If not for that, F9 would be gone by now. You know
124 rl757pvd : I think a significant number of flights will be to/from Florida. probably every citiy that will ahve ATL service will also have MCO service with a go
125 AVLAirlineFreq : Here's an oddball idea...what if WN used ATL to make itself more competitive in weaker WN markets?
126 FlyPNS1 : False. ATL only accounts for about 50% of FL's capacity. My expectation is that most of the FL cuts come from 3 places: 1) Florida p2p markets 2) BWI
127 ScottB : CRW-Florida probably makes money in the spring-season peak (but loses money for much of the year) while AVL might not have had that advantage. Late A
128 AVLAirlineFreq : Much simpler than that. It's because of a new WN station (GSP) that just opened 80 minutes away from AVL in the same media market.
129 AVLAirlineFreq : Presumably you are referring to FL markets that are only Florida p2p, as I don't see WN cutting back on flights to a place like MCO, one of its bread
130 Post contains images enilria : You have to divide the industry and say there is an LCC industry and a legacy industry. WN dominates the LCC side. They didn't used to have one. It i
131 smoot4208 : Agreed.They merged because they say this as a way to cut overall domestic capacity and because they believe ATL is profitable. If it wasn't for that,
132 FlyPNS1 : You say WN will de-hub ATL, but at the same time you say WN will make ATL like DEN. I got a suprise for you, DEN is a hub for WN. Nearly half of WN's
133 enilria : I agree completely with your first two points, but I really do think that FL would have survived. There was always the opportunity for wage givebacks
134 rl757pvd : There is no large scale network LCC besides WN to be doomed. Closest thing is B6 which is a few key cities and Florida, then next closest is F9, each
135 ScottB : Why? OAK doesn't have non-stop service on WN to anything east of MDW anymore. The only remaining transcon on WN out of SAN -- BWI -- has stuck around
136 cubsrule : . . . because it has a captive (military) market. That's simply not true of any of the ATL transcons, though ATL will presumably be a good bit bigger
137 flyguy89 : I had a feeling you took it that way but obviously that's not what they meant. It has nothing to do with 'deserving' anything, but whether or not WN
138 kcrwflyer : It's not about a single flight to Florida, it's now about Southwest not leaving WV and giving the state access to a LCC network. Same to you. ^ I'll
139 F9Fan : That is what I am thinking. WN has plenty of rrom at CLE to absorb the extra flights from CAK without having to expand (and they have plenty of room
140 WWTRAVELER99 : Hope this is announced today as it is the last day of the week. I will be surprised if we make it through next week without ATL announced. Did you al
141 WWTRAVELER99 : When does a LCC stop being an LCC? Don't look for F9 to fold up anytime soon. They make it through at least 2012, unless there is a double dip recess
142 kcrwflyer : I guess never? That would be one way to keep a few of the smaller cities, but I can't imagine them wanting to complicate things for themselves that m
143 rl757pvd : I think CRW could support a small WN station but while thier location helps them have good service to a variety of airlines I think it presents a chal
144 WWTRAVELER99 : After taking a look at what you posted about the number of frequencies I tend to agree with you, to a point. I don't see the cuts as deep as you. MCO
145 kcrwflyer : You're right about that. I think BWI and MDW would be the best gateways for us. I believe ATL would do better than BWI, but I couldn't imagine us bei
146 knope2001 : A key thing to remember is that with very few exceptions, it takes nearly f o r e v e r for an airline to die. I'm not suggesting I believe Frontier
147 cubsrule : But while West Virginians want that, where's the business case for it? Metro Charleston is only about 300,000 people (or less than half the size of T
148 FlyPNS1 : ECP only has a metro population of 165K...granted ECP has a larger tourist draw. ECP supports 8 flights and WN hasn't used it's subsidy, so far.
149 kcrwflyer : I don't think the metro population is a fair metric to view this market by. There are 2M within a 2hr drive of us. The closest competing airports are
150 Buddys747 : I don't know I agree with you on that. The reason the smaller cities don't have that now is because that's not FL style. Who is to say they won't sup
151 Atrude777 : Not picking on you Enilria, but did they actually physically SAY "we will announce ATL this week"? or as you worded it there was "implication"--impli
152 WWTRAVELER99 : You can read it for yourself and decide what Gary Kelly meant. From the conference call transcript: Duane Pfennigwerth - Evercore Partners Inc. Okay.
153 bjorn14 : I really don't get WN dropping MLI as it has a bigger metro than some Texas markets they serve and it's a perfect distance from MDW for them to at lea
154 Post contains images SANFan : I agree with everything you said here Scott. I too have wondered a bit about folks automatically assuming OAK-ATL will be added; Oakland, although st
155 Post contains images 727LOVER : An airport loses an airline with over 40% of the traffic because another airline wants to consolidate at a nearby airport? This reminds me of ATA's de
156 wwtraveler99 : Why not? As you know WN is always making changes and evolving. They would be cutting off a lot of connecting opportunities by doing away with the red
157 cubsrule : How many of those folks are as close or closer to PIT, IAD or CLT, though?
158 kcrwflyer : Neither airline flies to CID, you might be thinking DSM. IAD is entirely out of the equation at 6 hours away. PIT is 4 hours away. CLT airport is at
159 Post contains images SANFan : You mean "continue select AirTran red-eyes from the west"... Again, I don't think WN will choose to keep them. In many of the (frequent) A.net discus
160 Post contains images bjorn14 : I must be remembering A.nutters fantasies then.
161 zippyjet : We do quite well on our BWI-PWM and BWI-ROC runs. I could see WN in both stations. Service from ROC-TPA, ROC-MCO and ROC-FLL would do well. I do hope
162 cubsrule : But take examples like Parkersburg or Clarksburg. Clarksburg is roughtly equidistant from PIT and CRW - 2 hours from each. Even with WN at CRW, those
163 kcrwflyer : I can't sit here and prove this.. and I don't expect you to believe me at this point, but those in CKB and PKB much prefer using CRW than the larger
164 cubsrule : I could see security and baggage claim at CRW getting real hairy with 1000 more seats a day (a smallish WN operation). CRW's parking and rental car o
165 kcrwflyer : Security typically runs at half capacity as-is. Which is fine provided FL and NK aren't departing at exactly the same time. When they were both leavi
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