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Future Of WN @ MSY  
User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6565 posts, RR: 51
Posted (3 years 1 month 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 3971 times:

Excluding the FL flights, WN will be up to 42 flights/day out of MSY come November. Add in FL's ATL and MKE service (assuming MKE sticks around, of which I have my doubts), and the number goes up to 47. That's only 10 shy of what the airline offered the day before Katrina struck. I know WN's slow build up in MSY over the past 6 years has been well documented. Do you think WN will build on FL's 4 flights a day to ATL? Do you think we'll see any additional spokes added? I wish WN had a more open mind in regards to overflying HOU because there's good demand on both MSY-AUS and MSY-SAT, markets which I think a carrier like WN would do very well in. They never brought back MSY-JAX, IND, OAK, SAN, and PHL. Out of those, I'd say PHL is certainly not coming back, considering the large pull back the airline just announced out of there. I also doubt we'll see MSY-IND return. For many years during MSY-IND's existence, WN never had a MSY-MDW nonstop. Now, they have two. The IND service always routed MSY-IND-MDW, and I believe vice versa. SAN I think has some potential...probably the most realistic out of the former nonstop destinations. Add a tag on to a Florida city, or heck, even ATL, and I think it could be successful once again. OAK...not sure...it did gangbusters while it was around, but I'm sure the cost of fuel is a big hamper on this one. JAX is sort of the wild card to me. I think they could easily axe the JAX-BHM and add JAX-MSY in its place...they'd have more connecting options in MSY, plus a slightly larger local O&D market.

Any thoughts on the future of Southwest in the Big Easy?

24 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3426 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day ago) and read 3653 times:

I think MSY's big problem is HOU/IAH and with the merger WN probably will have bigger fish to fry. Will they go beyond 4x to ATL probably not as not to antagonize DL too much. I've always thought AUS/SAT would be great but doing that would almost make MSY a mini-hub and not sure WN wants to do that. I am a firm believer that MSY could be a great N/S Americas hub if some airline would step up. But like many airports you have to "build it and they will come"


"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineDrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5174 posts, RR: 8
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 1 day ago) and read 3638 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 1):
N/S Americas hub if some airline would step up.

Maybe, New Orleans doesn't have the international girth, if you will, that ATL, DFW, IAH do though. No airline currently around would dare hub New Orleans. The only carriers in the realm of possibility are Alaska, Virgin America, Frontier, and JetBlue. I don't see any of those investing in New Orleans. Besides that, had an airline say the size of Virgin or Frontier had hubbed MSY when Katrina hit - the financial aftermath and complete change in O&D would have driven them bankrupt. With New Orleans still susceptible to another Katrina do to questionable infrastructure (as related to weather) - I don't see anybody investing in it. Prior to Katrina New Orleans had a negative population growth rate. MSY will probably make incremental gains from WN and a few carriers here and there.



Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlineapjung From United States of America, joined Aug 2002, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 23 hours ago) and read 3622 times:

Once again there's just no love towards MSY from the airlines even with conventions and Cruise Passengers matching and exceeding pre-Katrina levels by this November.


Andy P. Jung
User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5078 posts, RR: 21
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 10 hours ago) and read 3322 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 1):


I am a firm believer that MSY could be a great N/S Americas hub if some airline would step up.

Depending on what WN does with it's new international capabilities thanks to FL, it's possible MSY may become one of
WN's int'l gateway cities to the Carriebean/Central America. MEX/CUN/MBJ maybe. Nothing too grandiose but in the case of HOU/MSY, MSY has the advantage of commercial FIS.



Next Up: STL-LGA-RIC-ATL-STL
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3207 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 10 hours ago) and read 3310 times:

I think WN using MSY as a north / south hub would be great, add n/s service to AUS, SAT and more. Although HOU ain't that far to get great use of a large hub so close. Would most likely be a long and slow uphill battle.


AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6606 posts, RR: 24
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 month 10 hours ago) and read 3263 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Thread starter):
OAK...not sure...it did gangbusters while it was around, but I'm sure the cost of fuel is a big hamper on this one.

I think the same logic would apply to SAN as well. Too long and thin given current fuel prices...plenty of places to connect in between.


User currently offlineItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1099 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 month 7 hours ago) and read 3168 times:

Quoting apjung (Reply 3):
Once again there's just no love towards MSY from the airlines even with conventions and Cruise Passengers matching and exceeding pre-Katrina levels by this November.

I am not sure if its a matter or no love as it is diciplined capacity management. MSY, like LAS and to an extent, MCO, is top heavy on discretionary/leasure traffic. Look at the yield bloodbath in LAS in the mid 00s when US was operating a hub there, WN & G4 were growing gangbusters and legacies were throwing seats in there to keep market share. Everyone took a haircut and allot of capacity was knocked out, quickly., to stabilize the market.

While I would love to see my ancestrial hometown's airport thrive and grow...I agree with Drerx7 that slow, steady incremental growth is more sustainable over the long term vs. a rapid build up and possible tear down.


User currently offlinePI767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2944 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 5):
add n/s service to AUS, SAT and more.

Don't you think that if there was any hope for service on MSY-AUS/SAT it would have been done before? Yes, I know SAT has been done as an add-on, (TWA, I think JFK-MSY-SAT or something like that) and CO MAY Have done SAT briefly in the past.....I can't be sure....but dont you think it would have been done by at least WN in the past?

Even in the WN days of MSY-SAN, MSY-OAK, etc.....even WN didnt try MSY-AUS or MSY-SAT.


User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3426 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2847 times:

Quoting PI767 (Reply 8):
.....even WN didnt try MSY-AUS or MSY-SAT.

I don't hve the exact stats in front of me by I remember the PDEWs being between 150-200 for each of them. Looks like they could support 2x daily.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3813 posts, RR: 34
Reply 10, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2820 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 9):
I don't hve the exact stats in front of me by I remember the PDEWs being between 150-200 for each of them. Looks like they could support 2x daily.

You can find O&D statistics by looking at the Consumer Airfare Report (Table 6) Here's the info on those two markets for the four most recent quarters.

Q4 2010

AUS-MSY - 214 total passengers (107 PDEW)
SAT-MSY - 191 total passengers (95.5 PDEW)

Q3 2010

AUS-MSY - 168 total passengers (84 PDEW)
SAT-MSY - 188 total passengers (94 PDEW)

Q2 2010

AUS-MSY - 219 total passengers (109.5 PDEW)
SAT-MSY - 202 total passengers (101 PDEW)

Q1 2010

AUS-MSY - 184 total passengers (92 PDEW)
SAT-MSY - 181 total passengers (90.5 PDEW)

The actual PDEW's in these two markets are about half of what you are claiming them to be.

LoneStarMike


User currently offlineBRJ From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 264 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2751 times:

Quoting PI767 (Reply 8):
Don't you think that if there was any hope for service on MSY-AUS/SAT it would have been done before? Yes, I know SAT has been done as an add-on, (TWA, I think JFK-MSY-SAT or something like that) and CO MAY Have done SAT briefly in the past.....I can't be sure....but dont you think it would have been done by at least WN in the past?

I know this thread is about WN @ MSY, but didn't ExpressJet fly MSY-SAT and MSY-AUS at one point?


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6565 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2687 times:

Quoting BRJ (Reply 11):
I know this thread is about WN @ MSY, but didn't ExpressJet fly MSY-SAT and MSY-AUS at one point?

XE did fly nonstop to both.

Here's a brief rundown of the carriers (that I know of) that have served MSY-AUS/SAT.

MSY-AUS: XE, PA
MSY-SAT: CO, EA, XE, PA, TW


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5412 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2631 times:

And since I wanted to check the latest figures between SAN and MSY, I looked them up (on DOT) and they are:
4Q10 - TL Daily O&D PAX = 223 (ave PDEW is ~112)
3Q10 - TL Daily O&D PAX = 204 (ave PDEW is ~102)
2Q10 - TL Daily O&D PAX = 238 (ave PDEW is ~119)
1Q10 - TL Daily O&D PAX = 223 (ave PDEW is ~112)

Quite consistent (year-round), as I would expect between these 2 fair-weather cities, and very similar to the 2 Texas cities. Of course AUS ans SAT are much closer so the flights to MSY would be less costly for the carrier (which would most likely be WN for all 3 of these markets IMO.) However, all of these cities, unfortunately, are probably way too low at this point to see n/s service. Which, coincidentally, we don't! Funny thing how that works...

(And btw, as many know, I would like nothing more than to see WN reinstate SAN-MSY -- one of their 2 former routes to SAN that have not yet returned. I've been forced to become more realistic in my hopes for air service these days and I just don't see a good chance for this one in the near future.)

bb


User currently offlinetype-rated From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 4997 posts, RR: 19
Reply 14, posted (3 years 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2604 times:

And for a time TW flew SAT-MSY for awhile too.


Fly North Central Airlines..The route of the Northliners!
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3207 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (3 years 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 2407 times:

I was really only suggesting adding MSY-SAT/AUS if WN or even another carrier were to try a north/south hub in the big easy. My quote was taken a bit out of context.


AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3426 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (3 years 4 weeks ago) and read 2278 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 16):
I was really only suggesting adding MSY-SAT/AUS if WN or even another carrier were to try a north/south hub in the big easy. My quote was taken a bit out of context.

Yes then they can add ELP,OKC,TUL,RGV,ABQ  



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1305 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1942 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 14):
(And btw, as many know, I would like nothing more than to see WN reinstate SAN-MSY -- one of their 2 former routes to SAN that have not yet returned.

When did WN operate SAN-MSY out of curiosity? And what was the 2nd route that WN has yet to bring back out of SAN?


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5412 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1787 times:

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 17):
When did WN operate SAN-MSY out of curiosity? And what was the 2nd route that WN has yet to bring back out of SAN?

The SAN-MSY n/s ended in Sept 2005 (right after Katrina). I'm trying to find the start date of that route but I don't have access to all of my information at this time; I can say that the route was operating in October of 2003. (I would guess that it might have begun in 2001 or 2002.)

The other previous route yet to return is SAN-SLC, which of course was inherited from Morris in 1993/4. (We did have Saturday-only service in this market again in 2008 but it never quite made it back to the "daily/permanent" category.)

FYI, SAT and SFO are 2 routes that SAN had, lost, but have since regained -- and are flourishing.

bb


User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1305 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1727 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 18):
The SAN-MSY n/s ended in Sept 2005 (right after Katrina). I'm trying to find the start date of that route but I don't have access to all of my information at this time; I can say that the route was operating in October of 2003. (I would guess that it might have begun in 2001 or 2002.)

I found that last night after I posted. It started back in August 2000


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5412 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 1653 times:

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 19):
I found that last night after I posted. It started back in August 2000.

Ahh. Well thanks for that info; I'll make a note of that in my current database! It's interesting to know that it ran for that long a period -- over 5 years. And to think that SAN had a MSY n/s many years before we even got our first HOU service...

(Just out of curiosity smoot', did you find that on a particular site or do you have your own data/collection where you have such info?)

bb


User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1305 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 1636 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 20):
(Just out of curiosity smoot', did you find that on a particular site or do you have your own data/collection where you have such info?)

I collect timetables from every airline (at least while they still printed them) and from the June 2000 timetable it had the routemap on the back with a line connecting the cities saying service starts Aug 2000. I don't have the timetable in front of me, but I can give you a specific date/times of the flight later if you want


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5412 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 1530 times:

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 21):
I collect timetables from every airline (at least while they still printed them) and from the June 2000 timetable it had the routemap on the back with a line connecting the cities saying service starts Aug 2000. I don't have the timetable in front of me, but I can give you a specific date/times of the flight later if you want.

Ah hah! That's what I wondered. I too have a good collection of timetables (inc WN back to the early 80s when they started serving SAN) but I just don't have it accessible right now due to some remodeling going on.

Yes, if you could check that out, great. I'd love to have the start date of SAN-MSY and I'm also searching for the stop date of the original SAN-SAT service -- which was sometime in 2003 I think. (SAT restarted in Feb 2006 and has remained and grown since that time.) I appreciate it if it's not a lot of trouble, smoot'.

bb


User currently offlinesmoot4208 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1305 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (3 years 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 1482 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 22):
Ah hah! That's what I wondered. I too have a good collection of timetables (inc WN back to the early 80s when they started serving SAN) but I just don't have it accessible right now due to some remodeling going on.

Yes, if you could check that out, great. I'd love to have the start date of SAN-MSY and I'm also searching for the stop date of the original SAN-SAT service -- which was sometime in 2003 I think. (SAT restarted in Feb 2006 and has remained and grown since that time.) I appreciate it if it's not a lot of trouble, smoot'.

SAN-MSY service started 8/6/00

MSY-SAN

flt 461 5:50p 7:50p

SAN-MSY

flt 468 7:15a 1:00p


As for SAN-SAT, it's in the schedule as of Oct 02' but by Apr 03' it's gone


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5412 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (3 years 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1428 times:

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 23):
SAN-MSY service started 8/6/00
MSY-SAN flt 461 5:50p 7:50p
SAN-MSY flt 468 7:15a 1:00p
As for SAN-SAT, it's in the schedule as of Oct 02' but by Apr 03' it's gone

Thank you mucho for that!

Pretty nice schedule SAN-MSY-SAN; I really DO hope WN gets that back up and running sometime in the near future!... Of course the trend seems to be fewer p-2-p flights, and more hub-and-spoke, so I just don't know.

  

bb


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