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"Official" No More UK Ash Clouds In Our Life Time.  
User currently offlinereadytotaxi From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2006, 3337 posts, RR: 2
Posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6678 times:

   I thought I would get that in first.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14500157

"The UK is unlikely to see another giant volcanic ash cloud in this lifetime, according to a new study."
"But analysis of a record of such clouds stretching back into prehistory across northern Europe showed big ash clouds of the type seen in 2010 occurred on average only every 56 years."

http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2011/08/05/G32146.1.abstract

So no need to take out travel insurance for the next 56 years.  


you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
11 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinedsaf From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2009, 77 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 6056 times:

So until next week........... ! 

Lew



XH558 - The Spirit Of Great Britain!
User currently offlineRobK From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 3958 posts, RR: 18
Reply 2, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 5978 times:

Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter):
I thought I would get that in first.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14500157

"The UK is unlikely to see another giant volcanic ash cloud in this lifetime, according to a new study."
"But analysis of a record of such clouds stretching back into prehistory across northern Europe showed big ash clouds of the type seen in 2010 occurred on average only every 56 years."

http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2011/08/05/G32146.1.abstract

So no need to take out travel insurance for the next 56 years.

Why do I get the feeling we'll be referring back to this post in the not-too-distant future...  


User currently offlinehomsar From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1197 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 5339 times:

I'm sure there is more than one person alive today who will be alive 56 years from now.


I was raised by a cup of coffee.
User currently offlinemffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1101 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4843 times:

Quoting homsar (Reply 3):

I'm sure there is more than one person alive today who will be alive 56 years from now.

Not if we get one of those ash clouds the size of the one that killed off the dinosaurs...  



harder than woodpecker lips...
User currently offlineferminbrif From Venezuela, joined Dec 2010, 102 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3958 times:

Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter):
The UK is unlikely to see another giant volcanic ash cloud in this lifetime, according to a new study

Respectfully to all those scientist and geologist, I disagree because it´s impossible to know that. indeed, now a day, earthquakes and/or tsunamis can not be detected but until a few minutes before happens.

Quoting homsar (Reply 3):
I'm sure there is more than one person alive today who will be alive 56 years from now

I totally agree with you. As a matter of fact, I hope to be among them.... AMEN!!


User currently offlineflylku From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 825 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3716 times:

... and the Titanic was unsinkable! We had more control over her fate than we do over mother nature and she is sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic. Never say never... well almost never say it.


...are we there yet?
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11686 posts, RR: 60
Reply 7, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2738 times:

That means we might have one a year for the next decade and then none for 500 years. In all seriousness, with several major volcanoes in Iceland within their eruption cycles, I'd say downplaying the possibility of another ash cloud is a little hopeful.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4405 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2334 times:

If there is one such event every 56 years, that still means that the likelihood of this to happen at a Time T from now is
P(T)=exp[-T/56years] - so the most likely day is still tomorrow.


User currently offlinebreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1917 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2269 times:

I hope somebody will send a memo to the volcanoes in Iceland  

User currently offlinerampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3151 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2235 times:

Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter):
So no need to take out travel insurance for the next 56 years.
Quoting ferminbrif (Reply 5):
Respectfully to all those scientist and geologist, I disagree because it´s impossible to know that. indeed, now a day, earthquakes and/or tsunamis can not be detected but until a few minutes before happens.

I'm fairly certain the scientists were paraphrased or misquoted. Not their fault. It IS possible to figure out a recurrence interval based on the geological record. This is NOT a prediction of the next erruption. Read the details:

Quote:
mean return interval of 56 ± 9 yr (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 115 yr)
The return interval varies between 6 and 115 years! Why focus on the average? Even this has an error of 9 years either side. All this is dividing the number of events into 7000 years of record. One eruption could happen today, and another next month, and it would be within the norm, figured into the long term average. SCIENTISTS do know this.

And no, they aren't able to pinpoint the next one with any kind of long or medium term accuracy.

Same thing with floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, recurrence interval is poorly understood. People fault weather forecasters for underestimating floods. ("We just had a 100 year flood this year, and now we get another one!" Well, how about moving out of the flood plain? That might solve your problem.)

-Rampart


User currently offlineInitious From Singapore, joined Dec 2008, 1066 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (3 years 3 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 1810 times:

Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter):
on average only every 56 years

I'm not so sure as to whether to believe these statistics. We were told by our government that flash floods only happens "once in 50 years" here in Singapore but it has happened like 5 times in a year.  

[Edited 2011-08-15 23:02:46]


One way I will fly around the world!
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