"The UK is unlikely to see another giant volcanic ash cloud in this lifetime, according to a new study."
"But analysis of a record of such clouds stretching back into prehistory across northern Europe showed big ash clouds of the type seen in 2010 occurred on average only every 56 years."
RobK From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 3932 posts, RR: 19 Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5545 times:
Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter): I thought I would get that in first. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14500157
"The UK is unlikely to see another giant volcanic ash cloud in this lifetime, according to a new study."
"But analysis of a record of such clouds stretching back into prehistory across northern Europe showed big ash clouds of the type seen in 2010 occurred on average only every 56 years."
homsar From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 802 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4906 times:
I'm sure there is more than one person alive today who will be alive 56 years from now.
mffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 908 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4410 times:
Quoting homsar (Reply 3):
I'm sure there is more than one person alive today who will be alive 56 years from now.
Not if we get one of those ash clouds the size of the one that killed off the dinosaurs...
ferminbrif From Venezuela, joined Dec 2010, 91 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3525 times:
Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter): The UK is unlikely to see another giant volcanic ash cloud in this lifetime, according to a new study
Respectfully to all those scientist and geologist, I disagree because it´s impossible to know that. indeed, now a day, earthquakes and/or tsunamis can not be detected but until a few minutes before happens.
Quoting homsar (Reply 3): I'm sure there is more than one person alive today who will be alive 56 years from now
I totally agree with you. As a matter of fact, I hope to be among them.... AMEN!!
flylku From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 721 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3283 times:
... and the Titanic was unsinkable! We had more control over her fate than we do over mother nature and she is sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic. Never say never... well almost never say it.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11117 posts, RR: 63 Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 2305 times:
That means we might have one a year for the next decade and then none for 500 years. In all seriousness, with several major volcanoes in Iceland within their eruption cycles, I'd say downplaying the possibility of another ash cloud is a little hopeful.
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4248 posts, RR: 2 Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1901 times:
If there is one such event every 56 years, that still means that the likelihood of this to happen at a Time T from now is
P(T)=exp[-T/56years] - so the most likely day is still tomorrow.
rampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 2851 posts, RR: 7 Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1802 times:
Quoting readytotaxi (Thread starter): So no need to take out travel insurance for the next 56 years.
Quoting ferminbrif (Reply 5): Respectfully to all those scientist and geologist, I disagree because it´s impossible to know that. indeed, now a day, earthquakes and/or tsunamis can not be detected but until a few minutes before happens.
I'm fairly certain the scientists were paraphrased or misquoted. Not their fault. It IS possible to figure out a recurrence interval based on the geological record. This is NOT a prediction of the next erruption. Read the details:
Quote: mean return interval of 56 ± 9 yr (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 115 yr)
The return interval varies between 6 and 115 years! Why focus on the average? Even this has an error of 9 years either side. All this is dividing the number of events into 7000 years of record. One eruption could happen today, and another next month, and it would be within the norm, figured into the long term average. SCIENTISTS do know this.
And no, they aren't able to pinpoint the next one with any kind of long or medium term accuracy.
Same thing with floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, recurrence interval is poorly understood. People fault weather forecasters for underestimating floods. ("We just had a 100 year flood this year, and now we get another one!" Well, how about moving out of the flood plain? That might solve your problem.)
I'm not so sure as to whether to believe these statistics. We were told by our government that flash floods only happens "once in 50 years" here in Singapore but it has happened like 5 times in a year.
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From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2006, 2596 posts, 
I thought I would get that in first. 
From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 802 posts, 
From Venezuela, joined Dec 2010, 91 posts, 
From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11117 posts, 
From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4248 posts, 
From France, joined Mar 2005, 1808 posts, 
From Singapore, joined Dec 2008, 1011 posts, 
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