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OAG Changes 8/15/2011:AA/DL/F9/UA/US/YV  
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7721 posts, RR: 15
Posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 8504 times:

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

Note:
THERE WILL BE TWO UPDATES THIS WEEK BECAUSE I WAS MOVING LAST WEEK.



Replaced by AA to ORD
*9K ALB-ART NOV 3>1.6 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 4>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0
9K SJU-NEV NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>1.2 JAN 0>1.5 FEB 0>1.6 MAR 0>1.6 APR 0>1.6

9V MIA-BLA SEP 0.6>0.9

Was AA hiding some slots?
*AA BNA-LGA DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6 FEB 6>7 MAR 5>6 APR 5>6
*AA CLE-LGA NOV 3>4 DEC 3>5 JAN 3>5 FEB 3>6 MAR 3>5 APR 3>5
AA DFW-BJX DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 5>4 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3
AA LAX-SLC APR 4>3
*AA LGA-RDU DEC 7>8 JAN 7>8 FEB 7>8 MAR 7>8 APR 7>8
*AA LGA-YUL NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>6 MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
*AA LGA-MAR 8>9 APR 8>9
AA MIA-GND DEC 0.5>0.4 JAN 0.6>0.4
AA ORD-IND DEC 8>9 JAN 8>9 FEB 8>9 MAR 8>9

AC ABE-AC GRR-AC LAS-YUL JAN 1.0>1.3 FEB 1.0>1.3
AC MDT-AC MHT-AC PDX-MAR 1.0>0

AM DEN-MEX DEC 0.5>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.4 FEB 1.0>0.4 MAR 1.0>0.5 APR 1.0>0.4

CO CLE-LAS NOV 4>3
CO CLE-PHX NOV 2.0>1.2
CO EWR-ATL NOV 7>5
CO EWR-BQN NOV 0.8>0.7
CO EWR-CLT NOV 6>4
CO EWR-CMH NOV 6>5
CO EWR-CUN NOV 1.9>1.3
CO EWR-DTW NOV 6>5
CO EWR-IND NOV 6>3
CO EWR-JAX NOV 4>3
CO EWR-MSP NOV 6>4
CO EWR-PIT NOV 7>5
CO EWR-RDU NOV 7>5
CO EWR-YHZ NOV 4>3
CO EWR-YUL NOV 6>4
CO HNL-SNA NOV 0.4>0.1
CO IAD-CDG OCT 2>1.9
CO IAD-EWR NOV 3>5
CO IAH-ABQ NOV 5>3
CO IAH-ACT NOV 4>6
CO IAH-ATL NOV 9>7
*CO IAH-AUA DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.2
CO IAH-AUS NOV 10>9
CO IAH-BNA NOV 7>6
CO IAH-BPT NOV 5>8
CO IAH-CAE NOV 1.5>1.0
CO IAH-CLL NOV 7>8
CO IAH-CMH NOV 5>3
CO IAH-COS NOV 5>1.4
CO IAH-CUN NOV 6>5
CO IAH-CVG NOV 5>3
CO IAH-DFW NOV 9>7
CO IAH-DTW SEP 4>5
CO IAH-GRK NOV 6>4
CO IAH-GSO NOV 3>1.6
CO IAH-IAD NOV 1.3>0.4
CO IAH-IND NOV 6>4
CO IAH-LCH NOV 6>4
CO IAH-LEX NOV 1.8>1.1
CO IAH-LFT NOV 8>7
CO IAH-LIT NOV 6>5
CO IAH-MBJ NOV 0.3>0.1
CO IAH-MCI NOV 9>7
CO IAH-MEX NOV 9>8
CO IAH-MKE NOV 5>4
CO IAH-MLU NOV 4>2
CO IAH-MSP NOV 5>3
CO IAH-MZT NOV 1.0>1.1
CO IAH-OAX NOV 0.7>0.9
CO IAH-OKC NOV 8>7
CO IAH-OMA NOV 6>4
CO IAH-ORF NOV 1.7>0.1
CO IAH-PIT SEP 4>3
CO IAH-PNS NOV 5>4
CO IAH-PVR NOV 1.7>1.9
CO IAH-SEA NOV 7>6
CO IAH-SHV NOV 7>8
CO IAH-SJO NOV 4>3
CO IAH-TUS NOV 4>1.5
CO IAH-TYR NOV 5>6
CO IAH-VCT NOV 1.9>1.1
CO IAH-VSA NOV 1.0>1.1
CO IAH-CO LAX-IAH NOV 13>11
CO OGG-SNA NOV 0.3>0.1
CO SFO-EWR NOV 6>7
CO SFO-LAS NOV 1.7>0.2
CO SFO-ORD NOV 0.9>0.2
CO SNA-HNL NOV 0.4>0.1
CO SNA-OGG NOV 0.3>0.1

CX DFW-SFO NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.8 JAN 0>1.9

DL ATL-AEX NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5 MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
DL ATL-BRU NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.7 MAR 1.0>0.8
DL ATL-DUB NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.8
DL ATL-LGW NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.8
DL ATL-MAN NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.8 JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.8
DL ATL-SGF NOV 4>5 DEC 3>4 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4 APR 3>4
DL ATL-TYS NOV 11>10 DEC 11>10 JAN 11>10 FEB 11>10 MAR 11>10 APR 11>10
DL ATL-ZRH NOV 0.8>0.7 FEB 0.9>0.8 MAR 0.9>0.8
DL BNA-MSP OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5 MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
DL CVG-ATL DEC 8>7 JAN 8>7 FEB 9>8 MAR 8>7 APR 8>7
DL DTW-MDT NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>6 MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
*DL EWR-AMS NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.8
DL SLC-ABQ APR 6>5
DL SLC-ATL DEC 8>7 JAN 8>7 FEB 9>8 MAR 8>7 APR 8>7
DL SLC-LGB DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4
DL SLC-PHX OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 7>6 MAR 7>6 APR 7>6
DL SLC-RNO NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4

F9 DEN-ABQ JAN 3>4
Back to try again. I never understood why they left before. The numbers were good in DOT.
*F9 DEN-LIT DEC 0>0.8 JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>0.9
*F9 DEN-PHL NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0.5
F9 DEN-PVR NOV 0.8>1.0
F9 DEN-SJD NOV 0.8>1.0
*F9 MCI-LAX NOV 1.0>2
*F9 MCI-LGA NOV 3>4

Earlier demise
*FL ATL-ACY JAN 2>0.4 FEB 3>0
*FL MCO-AVL JAN 0.6>0.1
*FL MCO-MLI JAN 0.5>0.1

HY JFK-RIX NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.1 JAN 0>0.2 FEB 0>0.1

IB JFK-MAD JAN 1.6>1.5 FEB 1.6>1.5
IB SJU-MAD JAN 0.1>0

JL ROR-NRT SEP 0>0.3

KE GUM-KIX NOV 1.0>1.3 DEC 1.0>1.8 JAN 1.0>1.7 FEB 1.0>1.7

LX LAX-ZRH FEB 1.0>0.9
LX SFO-ZRH NOV 1.0>0.9 JAN 1.0>0.9 FEB 1.0>0.9

MU HNL-PVG NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

OZ CLT-SEA NOV 0.2>0.1
OZ HNL-ICN SEP 0>0.1 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3
OZ PHL-SEA NOV 0.6>0.1
OZ SPN-KIX SEP 0.2>0.5

TS MCO-MAR 0.3>0 APR 0.3>0

U5 ORD-CUN OCT 0.9>0.7

UA DEN-ASE JAN 11>12 FEB 11>12 MAR 11>12
UA DEN-YQR NOV 2>1.9
UA DEN-YVR NOV 1.9>1.8
UA DEN-YXE NOV 2>1.9
UA DEN-UA IAD-EWR NOV 4>1.2
UA IAD-MAD NOV 0.9>0.5 DEC 1.0>0.6 JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.7
UA IAD-UA IAH-ASE JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>3 MAR 1.0>2
UA LAX-ASE JAN 3>4 FEB 4>5 MAR 3>4
UA LAX-LAS NOV 5>4
UA LAX-PVR NOV 0.1>0.3
UA LAX-SAN NOV 12>11
UA ORD-CUN NOV 1.1>0.9
UA ORD-MSP NOV 12>11
UA ORD-YEG NOV 2>1.9
UA ORD-YVR NOV 3>1.9
UA ORD-YWG NOV 5>4
UA ORD-UA ORD-UA PDX-SEA OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8 JAN 9>8 FEB 9>8 MAR 9>8 APR 9>8
UA SFO-KOA NOV 1.8>1.6
UA SFO-LAX NOV 15>14
UA SFO-PVR NOV 0.4>0.8
UA SFO-RNO NOV 6>5
UA SFO-YEG NOV 2>1.9
UA SFO-YYJ NOV 2>1.9

US ALB-BOS NOV 3>1.6
US BOS-LAS NOV 0.6>0.1
US BOS-LGA NOV 14>13
US CLT-LGA NOV 12>11
US CLT-MOB DEC 3>4 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4
US CLT-YUL NOV 1.7>1.9
US PHL-DCA NOV 12>11
US PHL-LGA NOV 20>19
US PHX-ANC NOV 1.0>1.1

UX JFK-MAD NOV 0.8>0.7 DEC 0.9>0.7

VS LAS-LGW JAN 1.0>0.9 FEB 1.0>0.9
VS MCO-LGW FEB 1.8>1.6
VS MCO-MAN JAN 1.4>1.3

The hits keep on coming
YV HNL-ITO OCT 4>3
YV HNL-KOA OCT 6>5
YV HNL-LIH OCT 6>5
YV HNL-OGG OCT 7>6
YV ITO-HNL OCT 4>3
YV KOA-HNL OCT 6>5
YV LIH-HNL OCT 6>5
YV OGG-HNL OCT 7>6

ZK MCE-VIS SEP 1.0>1.8 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>3 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2

[Edited 2011-08-15 04:28:03]

49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6791 posts, RR: 17
Reply 1, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 8478 times:

OMG.. what a great Monday morning wake-up call! Thanks enilria! Now, monday morning is not so demonic..  


Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineDFWEagle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1076 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 8205 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Was AA hiding some slots?

No, these LGA additions utilize slots from the soon-to-be-cancelled LGA-BOS Eagle route. I think the LGA-BOS cut was included in your last report.



Ryan / HKG
User currently offlineDesertAir From Mexico, joined Jan 2006, 1481 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 8095 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO IAH-TUS NOV 4>1.5

Wow! Is this correct. This is high season in the Tucson area. COx always has had 4 flights a day.


User currently offlinemcmax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 7879 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CX DFW-SFO NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.8 JAN 0>1.9

CX has announced passenger service to DFW as a tag from SFO!? When did this happen? (If true, this is brilliant!)



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11983 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 7860 times:

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 2):
No, these LGA additions utilize slots from the soon-to-be-cancelled LGA-BOS Eagle route. I think the LGA-BOS cut was included in your last report.

I still think AA/Eagle could be making better use of its LGA slots.

I don't believe AA/Eagle need the kind of frequency they are running to the likes of RDU, ATL, etc. - they can trim these routes to lower frequency with CR7s, and use some of those freed slots to start some new flying to a select group of markets with strong O&D and where AA has a reasonably strong local presence (I thinking of places like MCI again and maybe even HOU/IAH again). I don't think they need 8 flights to RDU or 6 to BNA.


User currently offlinecubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23308 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 7858 times:

Quoting mcmax (Reply 4):
CX has announced passenger service to DFW as a tag from SFO!? When did this happen?

It's almost certainly a misfiled AA codeshare.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 7858 times:

Quoting mcmax (Reply 4):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CX DFW-SFO NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>1.8 JAN 0>1.9

CX has announced passenger service to DFW as a tag from SFO!? When did this happen? (If true, this is brilliant!)

CX won't go from 0 daily to near 2x daily in Jan all of a sudden

probably a cargo flight mis-coded as pax. flying SFO-DFW with a full 77W/744 without 5th freedom rights is a nice way to guarantee red ink. unlike QF@LAX, CX@SFO is not a scissor hub that can have a tag benefit from multiple inbound segments.


User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2730 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 7828 times:

UA IAD-MAD NOV 0.9>0.5 DEC 1.0>0.6 JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.6 MAR 1.0>0.7
Is this the Aer Lingus service?
I don't show UA flying this route.


User currently offlineDrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5209 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7821 times:

Quoting DesertAir (Reply 3):
Wow! Is this correct. This is high season in the Tucson area. COx always has had 4 flights a day.

UAx makes up the rest with 70 seaters.

Quoting mcmax (Reply 4):
CX has announced passenger service to DFW as a tag from SFO!? When did this happen? (If true, this is brilliant!)

Is this cargo?



Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently onlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6791 posts, RR: 17
Reply 10, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7421 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
I don't think they need 8 flights to RDU or 6 to BNA.

Oh contraire! They need the 11 flights back just to make sure they have enough flights of they day to LGA. Look at it this way.. they offer 8 flights, 5 will actually fly with 3 cancelled (as it always seem to be cancellations).. if they offer 11 flights, then 5 will be cancelled.. it's just the way LGA is for the jungle jets.. And, btw, the majority of the RDU-LGA flights are already CR7.. the next step is a MD80 and they did it once with failure.. RDU-NYC is an inportant market and frequency counts nearly as much as the LGA-BOS/WAS market.. Could AA/MQ do it with less frequencies? Yes. DL and US does it with 6 each. Is AA the first choice to LGA? They probably have more market share than the others but decreasing frequency is not going to help keep that share or the corporate contracts. So I guess it just goes down to AA deciding if they want to make the busienss people happy (as RDU-LGA is probably WAY more business than leisure) or lose market share and customers.

Just a thought.



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3258 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7349 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL SLC-LGB DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 6>5 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4

I thought DL/OO only went into LGB once daily. When did that change, or is this correct?


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11983 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7339 times:

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 10):
Oh contraire! They need the 11 flights back just to make sure they have enough flights of they day to LGA. Look at it this way.. they offer 8 flights, 5 will actually fly with 3 cancelled (as it always seem to be cancellations).. if they offer 11 flights, then 5 will be cancelled.. it's just the way LGA is for the jungle jets.. And, btw, the majority of the RDU-LGA flights are already CR7.. the next step is a MD80 and they did it once with failure.. RDU-NYC is an inportant market and frequency counts nearly as much as the LGA-BOS/WAS market

Okay, well yes, reliability is obviously priority #1 - I know Eagle can be very frustrating. But, alas, I still believe AA/Eagle do not need that kind of frequency in these markets. Frankly - what AA needs most is a 90-seater, which would be great for markets like LGA-RDU/ATL, but failing that, I think that AA's LGA slot holdings could be more efficiently and strategically deployed than they are now. Or, failing that, see if they can work out a deal with B6 to swap LGA slots for more JFK slots.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 10):
Could AA/MQ do it with less frequencies? Yes. DL and US does it with 6 each. Is AA the first choice to LGA? They probably have more market share than the others but decreasing frequency is not going to help keep that share or the corporate contracts. So I guess it just goes down to AA deciding if they want to make the busienss people happy (as RDU-LGA is probably WAY more business than leisure) or lose market share and customers.

I've been attacked here repeatedly for advocating frequency when it makes sense. In this case, it seems as though Eagle's LGA schedules are more about slot-sitting than profitability or what makes strategic sense. On LGA-RDU, I don't think it makes sense. I believe AA could successfully retain a strong share of the premium business in the market with less flights.


User currently onlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6791 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7204 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I believe AA could successfully retain a strong share of the premium business in the market with less flights.

Look at it this way, if AA went down to 6 flights, and only 3 or 4 actually went.. how well would that work? I mean, just speaking historically, RDU-LGA is frequently on the cancelled list.. it could be a case of slot holding.. but holding slots with flights that won't actually be used to buffer those other flights.. meaning, if a RDU-LGA flight is scheduled but there is a hold up the slot could be used for a MIA-LGA flight to land instead.. I'm just thinking out loud though.. If AA/MQ was to offer an AUS-LGA flight in one of hte RDU-LGA flight timeslots, and that flight gets cancelled, AUS is screwed.. RDU is not.. sometimes it's best to buffer for the inevitable cancellations than have a destination flight cancelled with no backup..



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3003 posts, RR: 31
Reply 14, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7135 times:

Thanks for finding time to squeeze this in...I hope the move went well this weekend

User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6936 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7135 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*DL EWR-AMS NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.8

Seasonal adjustment?



"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5604 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7054 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AC ABE-AC GRR-AC LAS-YUL JAN 1.0>1.3 FEB 1.0>1.3
AC MDT-AC MHT-AC PDX-MAR 1.0>0

I'm confused with the AC entries....???

bb


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6828 posts, RR: 32
Reply 17, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 6933 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 DEN-PHL NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0.5

I'm not entirely sure that's accurate (it does seem to operate most days in November; there are just some day-of-week cancels) unless the OAG filing is ahead of their reservations system.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 10):
RDU-NYC is an inportant market and frequency counts nearly as much as the LGA-BOS/WAS market.. Could AA/MQ do it with less frequencies? Yes. DL and US does it with 6 each.

US won't be in this city-pair long-term after the LGA slot swap proceeds. There is plenty of demand for RDU-NYC, but I very strongly doubt it makes money with 50-seat jet economics given current fare levels. The big question is whether AA is willing to defend their remaining point-to-point routes at RDU against Delta, which has recently moved in on several point-to-point routes from RDU dropped by AA.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US BOS-LGA NOV 14>13

Does this reflect the reduced schedule on the weekends and around the Thanksgiving holiday? A "normal" weekday schedule is 16 round-trips, but there are only a total of seven round-trips over three days combined from Thursday to Saturday of the holiday weekend. How viable will the US Shuttle between BOS and LGA be once the US presence at LGA shrinks to BOS/PHL/PIT/DCA/CLT?


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2766 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 6853 times:

As usual, thanks for this and as usual, an excellent job, considering all that is going on....  
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-UA IAD-EWR NOV 4>1.2

Is it possible to get a clarification of this? Sorry if I'm missing this here.


User currently onlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6791 posts, RR: 17
Reply 19, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 6267 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 17):
but I very strongly doubt it makes money with 50-seat jet economics given current fare levels.

Correct. The 50 and 35 seat jets they were using can't be very economical. But the F100 would have done well at 5-6 times a day. But they don't have those available. They currently use 70 seats and some 50 seats and they all go out full (at least from the RDU gate agents). But if 33-45% of your flights are cancelled a day, what can you do? And I"m sure those cancelled slots are not going to waste.. it's probably allowing AA to get mainline flights in at the expense of the regional flights. So again, what's better in the view of AA?

1. Have 8-11 flights at RDU at which 5-7 actually run and carry the corporate contracts?
2. Have 5-6 flights at RDU at whcih 3-4 actually run; and have 2 2-a-day flights from another city that could get cancelled with little to no backup flights and upsetting the corporate contracts?
3. Have 3-4 mainline flghts at RDU against 6 70 seaters from Delta and 6 50 seaters from US with a LOT more connecting opportunities and eroding business to the more frequent flights?

The thing about RDU-LGA is that you can go to a morning meeting and still be back at work in time for an afternoon meeting. Or, you could fly to RDU for the day and get back without a serious disruption of your activities. More frequencies allow that. Less frequencies and you start looking at airlines that allows that kinda frequency.. Unless everyone all of a sudden say we only gonna run RDU 4-5 times a day, it's just too easy to jump ship.. And the fares aren't too high.. but they aren't also that low..



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6828 posts, RR: 32
Reply 20, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 5782 times:

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 19):
They currently use 70 seats and some 50 seats and they all go out full (at least from the RDU gate agents).

I'm always wary of the "they all go out full" claims; for the first five months of this year, RDU-LGA on MQ saw a 69% load factor.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 19):
Less frequencies and you start looking at airlines that allows that kinda frequency.. Unless everyone all of a sudden say we only gonna run RDU 4-5 times a day, it's just too easy to jump ship.. And the fares aren't too high.. but they aren't also that low.

There's the dilemma. RDU-LGA has traffic which can absolutely support mainline service (RDU-NYC sees close to 1200 PDEW) but the fragmentation among five different non-stop carriers and three airports makes things challenging. Without a real hub at either end, AA would struggle to fill a 140-seat aircraft (the MD-80). Delta might be able to make mainline to LGA work with their future hub operation. So if they need lots of frequency to LGA to be competitive, but they can't make a profit with RJ costs and B6 fare levels to NYC, I can't see how AA makes LGA-RDU work long-term.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 19):
But if 33-45% of your flights are cancelled a day, what can you do?

If your customers are dealing with regular cancellations, it's not clear that they would remain your customers long-term. If they can't run the schedule consistently, they need to run a realistic schedule.


User currently offlinecubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23308 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5472 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 20):
If they can't run the schedule consistently, they need to run a realistic schedule.

If they "run a realistic schedule," they'll lose the slots and DL (or someone else) will pick them up and gum up the airspace equally with their own flights. It doesn't solve anything.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinergreenftm From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 300 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 5393 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
OZ CLT-SEA NOV 0.2>0.1
OZ HNL-ICN SEP 0>0.1 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3
OZ PHL-SEA NOV 0.6>0.1
OZ SPN-KIX SEP 0.2>0.5

Are these codeshares? Didn't think Asiana or any foreign carrier could operate P2P in the US.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA ORD-UA ORD-UA PDX-SEA OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8 JAN 9>8 FEB 9>8 MAR 9>8 APR 9>8

Is this a typo? Does UA/OO really operate 8-9 daily on the SEA-PDX market? I thought QX more or less owned that market, with a token UA flight added to the mix.


User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3180 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 4812 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US BOS-LAS NOV 0.6>0.1

Will be gone by mid to late Winter I presume.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
US PHX-ANC NOV 1.0>1.1

US seems to be doing well in Alaska. PHL-ANC returned for a second time this year. I guess they hold a monopoly on East Coast-Alaska, seeing as DL no longer flies ATL/CVG-ANC.



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
User currently offlinenkops From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2709 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (3 years 4 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4417 times:

Thanks again for the update, hope your move went well....

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*FL ATL-ACY JAN 2>0.4 FEB 3>0

Welcome to Spirit Int'l Airport!!!! I hate having just one carrier!!!



I have no association with Spirit Airlines
25 AeroWesty : The OZ HNL-ICN flight could be interesting. Up against KE double-daily (A330 + B744) and HA's new service. Yes, on EMB-120s. 9x daily currently.
26 phatfarmlines : IB SJU-MAD going seasonal? I see flights in March 2012
27 PlanesNTrains : I have no idea about the specifics of this route, but if they need to cancel a flight, and RDU-LGA has "plenty", and RDU-LGA also has some empty seat
28 PSUmd80 : Me too... anyone?
29 usdcaguy : Is this frequency reduction new, or is it reduced every year? I seem to remember this staying daily in prior years. Regardless, the winter pull-down
30 RWA380 : Nice to see OZ in HNL again, flew them on this route shortly after they commenced it the first time on 763's, great J class experience all the way to
31 Post contains images enilria : Good catch. I forgot that from the prior week. That's what was published, but as usual there is all sorts of mess with the UA/CO operators in this me
32 enilria : It happened again. It is an a.net posting glitch.
33 FlyASAGuy2005 : Thank you. Of course it solves something. Just MAYBE, DL will actually operate the flights, unlike AA. Seems like a win to me..
34 Post contains images SurfandSnow : Of course, we'll have to see what happens at ART in 2 years when that AA subsidy ends . So did AA already drop its SJU-NEV service? If so, I can only
35 Post contains images mariner : I must have missed something. Frontier still flies to BOI seasonally and I haven't seen that it is dumping either MSY or TPA or PHL. mariner
36 slcdeltarumd11 : No one seems to be able to make DEN-MEX work for some reason. If they are slimming down this much in ski season i bet the route is really hurting. Ma
37 enilria : ...or if the EAS program is cancelled completely before that. I think I will create a thread and discuss whether there should even be an EAS program.
38 miaami : I think you omitted from LGA to Where? Is this LGA-MIA????
39 enilria : It is the same a.net problem. It is Toronto, but for some reason a.net is changing the hyphen and airport code into a month abbreviation. It is a gli
40 greenair727 : AA has been slowly and quietly building their presence at CLE, likely in the event that if UA withdraws some service, they can readily grab some of t
41 rgreenftm : Isn't that what Qantas does between JFK and LAX on their way to SYD? Never flying the route, I assumed they either kept pax on the airplane, or had a
42 TOMMY767 : JV with AF/KL plus it was a solid moneymaker when NW operated the route.
43 ScottB : There's not much left for them to cut at BOS. The Saabs on Colgan are all at-risk or EAS and Colgan makes the marketing decisions for that flying. Ap
44 HPRamper : Maybe the Shuttle gets cut down a little in frequency without the focus city at either end, but my impression is that it's mostly an O&D route an
45 point2point : Okay, thanks for the explanation, so I would assume this is Toronto (YYX)? Is it possible to get the correct numbers in there? Unless the system give
46 enilria : To be more clear, no foreign carrier has 8th freedom authority in the USA. That prevents QF from selling a ticket NYC-LAX. They can sell a ticket NYC
47 smoot4208 : The Shuttle is very profitable for US. LGA-BOS isn't going away any time soon. That p2p route will last
48 ScottB : Are you sure about that? For the first five months of this year, the load factor is at 47.5% for LGA-BOS. And that's with the smallest mainline aircr
49 enilria : I don't think the shuttles have ever made money. US tried to sell the slots for LGA-BOS a few years ago to other carriers, but nothing happened. I wo
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