Aduum From Australia, joined Sep 2000, 335 posts, RR: 1 Posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 2917 times:
This is an article that I found in the paper by Geoffrey Thomas. It looks at Ansett's fleet renewal choices.
The ownership uncertainty has not stalled plans for Ansett's fleet renewal program.
The airline looks to be headed for an all Airbus fleet for its major domestic operations as the leasing division of SIA moves to secure 10, 300-seat Airbus A330 aircraft for delivery next year.
The Airbus A330-200s would be a major part of Ansett's fleet revamp which will also include a big fleet of smaller 150seat jets.
According to industry sources, the Airbus A330s are earmarked for Ansett.
Whichever course the NZ Government takes, SIA will be a major player in Ansett's fleet renewal program.
On that basis, SIA management is looking at options to revamp quickly Ansett's ageing fleet. SOme of Ansett's 200-seat Boeing 767-200s have the highest number of flight hours and the highest number of flight cycles in the world.
ANd Ansett faces new competition from Qantas' A330-300s and A330-200ss which will be delivered late next year.
One option was for Ansett to take some of SIA's Boeing 300-seat 777s but these are considered too heavy for short-haul domestic routes and the 767 is not as wide as the A330. Another problem has been delivery positions of the 777s which are the world's best selling twin aisle aircraft.
All speculation but still weighs up their options pretty well.
Dalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2403 times:
I know for a fact the 777 is still a big chance at AN/NZ. I wouldn't discount the article and AN are likely to go all Airbus for the narrow bodies but i wouldn't rule out more 763s,777-200ERs and 744s for the supposed rapid expansion of AN International.
Dalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 5, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2390 times:
don't forget that although Geoff Thomas is a well respected aviation journalist, he can get it wrong also.
I still have an article written by him from May 2000 saying QF had agreed to buy 12 777-200ER/LR with 18 options. How wrong that turned out to be.
The AN situation has too many variables at the moment to accurately forecast their future fleet requirements.
I gather the A332 the article mentions would be the ones that SALE will be leasing.
It certainly could happen, but I don't know if it will happen.
Tullamarine From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1252 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2368 times:
As part of the sales of the 762s to GECAS, AN has agreed to lease a number of 763s as well as the 3 763s they are leasing from AC. What are the terms of these leases? It would seem to me that with about a total of 13 763s being leased, A332s don't make much sense in the short term unless the 763s can be returned early or the A332s are for int'l expansion.
B727-200 From Australia, joined Nov 1999, 1051 posts, RR: 3 Reply 8, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2363 times:
The first thing that has to happen is AN need to sell their B767-200's. As an interum step they are supposed to be selling these to GECAS and leasing them back short term until a replacement is chosen. I think Ansett currently owns 5 of its 9 B767-200's.
For A330's, it is still felt that these aircraft may be a bit too heavy for short-haul domestic sectors also. They are not designed to operate up to 7 x 1hr 20min sectors, which is why Airbus were toying with an A330-100 version designed for this very purpose.
If AN were to get these aircraft, however, then I imagine they will do the same work the current domestic B767's do. This is MEL-SYD, SYD-BNE, SYD-PER, MEL-PER domestically, and MEL-DPS, SYD-DPS and SYD-NAN internationally.
The Coachman From Australia, joined Apr 2001, 1415 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2355 times:
Personally, I think there is room for B767-300ER's in the fleet, at least in the short term. The 763's can fly the domestic routes and occasional international (NAN, DPS etc.). They would have about 230-240 seats. Mind you, the B767-300ER's are LEASED from AC, not bought. Sure, it might be capitally less intensive in the short-term, but if they were a part of a long-term fleet for AN, then they might have considered buying some.
The A330-200 would fill a niche of about 270 pax (since they would be operated in a 2 class config. If these birds were internationally configured, Asian expansion is likely. However, if the A330-200's came along, the B767-300ER will have to go unless AN can demonstrate that they can economically run two types in that range of the market.
Their current fleet of A320-200's is well-loved by the general public (at least the best-loved of a supposedly bad bunch) and is the last aircraft pictured on one of the 'Absolutely' ads. They're of about the same age as the B737-300's they currently have. I therefore think that it's impossible to tell which they're going to ditch. NZ still have B737-300's which may be the decider. It would be better economics to run NZ and AN B737's as a single unit I think. AN can buy some B737-700's or B737-800's as replacements.
The general public perception, who, let's face it, are the revenue generators for AN will, however, not see this and perceive the B737's as old, aging aircraft (even if AN bought 73G's or 738's). If they buy the A319, a type that isn't commonly seen (if at all) in Australia, then the public would PERCEIVE that AN had a newer fleet which would help immensely.
There's no point buying the A321, though the costs would not be much more. It would probably seat 165 or so and the size premium over the A320 (144) is not much and turnaround times at airports like SYD would be longer and may lead to slot problems.
I hope I'm not starting an A vs B war because I'm only pointing out perceptions of a very ignorant general public, of which I hope not to be a part of.
I could probably have written more, so if there's anything that should be added, please suggest, because time is limited at the moment.
Dalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 10, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2344 times:
the first batch of QF A330s(7 332s and 6 333s) will be almost solely flown domestically. This is no secret. Therefore, I think AN could do the same thing as 763s will not match A330s capacity wise on domestic sectors(250 v 300+ pax).
So it definitely could happen but I am not sure it will happen.
Travel From Australia, joined May 2001, 355 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2287 times:
If the NZ government approve SQ's higher stake in NZ,
I believe that both NZ and AN will steer towards boeing aircraft.
At the end of the day whatever AN and NZ choose whether a new fleet of Boeings or Airbuses, it will all be worth it in the end. It will certainly give them a boost in passengers and profit in the long run.
Ruscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1474 posts, RR: 2 Reply 14, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2272 times:
I would be surprised if the public cares much whether it is A320 or B733. Qantas don't currently fly A320 and the public have clearly shown a preference for Qantas.
Also, I fly a lot on both Qantas and Ansett domestic, and I have tried to be objective. I really can't say I prefer the A320 or 737. Second thing is, Ansetts 767's are rarely full on the flights I mostly take, to and from Brisbane, so why would they need the capacity.
Skystar From Australia, joined Jan 2000, 1363 posts, RR: 3 Reply 15, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2274 times:
I wouldn't dismiss the A321, as Ansett has been very impressed with its economics in the past, and would have the best seat costs in the domestic fleet. Ansett did have some A321s on order, however it converted them to A320s. I was told by the A320 Fleet Manager that an A321 in Ansett configuration would have a capacity of 170+ pax (can't remember the exact number). Currently a significant gap exists between the 144 seats of the A320 and the 211 of the B762. In regards to its turnaround time, the 40mins on MEL-SYD routes is definately ample, and they've coped in Europe with such aircraft for a while.
Unfortunately, Airbus has no real solution for Ansett, as it has no real product in the 200-250 seat market. The A330-200 is not an optimal fit, but it'll have to do - AN does not need a 230ton MTOW for domestic ops. It also does present operational inflexibilities at SYD, with its long wingspan unable to be accomodated at all gates.
The B777 is simply far too big for domestic operations, especially at our frequencies (ie MEL-SYD 30mins all day). Without a doubt, the most flexible aircraft currently is the B767-300, and it's the right size.
Remember, NZ's 733s are a temporary filler, they have acknowledged that this is not a long term fleet solution. At one time, they were even quite keen to get their hands on the Ansett A320s.
Johnnybgoode From Germany, joined Jan 2001, 2187 posts, RR: 7 Reply 18, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2228 times:
in some ways i agree with The Coachman.
i really think that one of the major points which plays an important role in AN´s future fleet will be to give the impression to introduce a very modern fleet with state-of-the-art aircraft. i certainly don´t want to trigger any offence on airbus or boeing sides, but Coachman is right when he suggests that planes which haven´t been seen in australia widely or which 15 year-old concept (the a320s) in comparions with the 737NGs, which are based on a 35 year old concept deliver a more modern image. myself, i really consider both the a320s and the newer 737s to be state-of-the-art, but people who don´t fly frequently might not make this difference.
and the reason why people prefer QF so much, i think, is primarily the fact that QF hasn´t had such problems in the last years and offers a vaster network...
and about the 767s and 330s. i really could see AN switching to the a330s, on the one hand because so many voices suggest that the 777s are too big, and i think one could say that it´s highly unlikely that AN will build a new fleet of new 767s. in my opinion, in the longer term AN must face out its 767s to eliminate the image it triggered with the grounding of its entire 767 fleet this spring.
in addition, the a330s offer a wider cabin which qantas, having a330s on order, could easily use to market themselves whereas AN would still stick to its 767s, so that´s certainly no win-situation for AN.
so, if they want to stay competitive in the wide-body market, imho AN must go for the a330s as well...
in addition, if AN would go for the a330s offered on lease by SALE, they could get them almost as early as QF gets its a330s, afaik.
however, Skystar pointed out some good points as well. the a330s are quite heavy for short-haul ops and only fit into to large parking positions, which could prove a major problem on slot restricted airports (and these are exactly the reasons why LH on the one hand isn´t fond of the a330-200 as replacments for its a300/310s either). so what about the 767-400? it´s only slightly wider than the 763s... but it´s still a 767...
we´ll just have to wait and see
If only pure sweetness was offered, why's this bitter taste left in my mouth.
The Coachman From Australia, joined Apr 2001, 1415 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2207 times:
Your comments are welcomed. I realise that the gap between the A320 and the B767-200 in terms of capacity is quite large and that an A321 would be a good filler (170 or so as you say, and say correctly). I was basing my turn-around info on some info from another thread and they pointed out some problems, but as I've just realised, with the 2nd door before the wing, a little congestion can be saved by biz class pax turning left and plebs turning right on entering the aircraft, which would help quite a lot.
I agree, the A330-200 is too big for Australian domestic ops. It's wingspan is too large, and it's weight is a problem with slot determination (I think that's what another forum said). But, basically it's too large. It begs the question of if it's too big, then why did QF order it? A purely international bird? What will QF use their 332 and 333 fleet for?
One possible solution, as mentioned, by johnnybgoode is the B767-400ER. It's a B767, yes, but that's good in some ways because AN has pilots who are already on 767's. The 764ER has a MTOW of 204T, which is more manageable than the stated 230T of the 332. The public will get a blabber if they get them of "the newest 767's in the world" which can't be bad for the public perception.
Ruscoe, I know the public don't care generally, but they will care when they book the ticket. It's like things that don't happen to us often. I know that when I go to the footy (rarely), I choose where I sit quite carefully, or a concert etc. When the non-enthusiasts buy a ticket, they will want to know.
Jet_guy From New Zealand, joined Aug 2000, 231 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 2174 times:
I persoanlly dont think we will see any more airbus a/c in AN colours apart from the A320 which they have currently. Anyway these 320 are getting old, and i heard (could be wrong) thay they will start to phased out in the next 5-10 years. NZ i think wouldnt go near airbus with a 100 foot stick, and look at SQ they cant get rid of their 340 quick enough, even to the rival manufacturer. I dont know much about their 310s though.
The 737-900 would fill the role of the 320 quite nicely, it has the range, capacity, and small enough to be used on shorter routes with quick turnaround times e.g. SYD-MEL
Airlines down in this region have a trend of not 'rocking the boat' to much when it comes to a/c orders. The only order that i can remember (and im sure this 1 or 2 more) was QF order for the A380, which also bought the A330 at a bargin.
I am not anti-airbus they provide many good products, but I just believe it will be a long time yet before we see them in the skies down here which in some ways is a pity.
Dalecary From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (12 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 2107 times:
to The Coachman,
I have stated as have QF, that the first 13 A330s,comprising 7*332 and 6* 333 will predominantly be used on the Australian domestic scene. Obviously QF have many options for the A330s, although this fiqure is unknown, it is believed the QF A330 fleet could eventually total 35-40.
The first batch of domestic A330s will be operated at a paper reduced MTOW around 200t and will have structural strengthening to allow their short haul use.
QF will have no problems operating them at SYD,MEL or BNE. The gates are available now. Off the top of my head MEL has at least 7 gates capable of holding A330s.
AN will have big problems,however as their terminal developments lag far behind QF's. Much work will be needed at all airports before the A330 can be accommodated at a meaningful number of gates.
AN's problems are not just related to it's fleet: the whole infrastructure needs a big and expensive facelift. It is quite embarrassing comparing the AN and QF terminals at MEL now. To me the QF MEL terminal looks like it could handle roughly twice the pax of the AN terminal.
BNE is not such a big problem, but I understand AN lags far behind in SYD as well.
Don't think we will see the A330s in AN colours next year. Maybe down the track but not in the next 12 months. Pretty hard to get an A332 production slot at the moment as well. They are one mighty popular and powerful plane. From what I know, SALE are only looking at ordering A330s and as yet no official order has come in. So how would AN get them next year? They won't.
The 763 is the short term solution for AN. Cheap to operate and don't require the infrastructure changes that the A330 will incur.
25 Tullamarine: Dale Whilst I agree that AN's terminal in MEL is in serious need of a facelift, your comment about their SYD terminal suggests you haven't been there
26 Aussie_: A little off topic, but speaking of terminals: if MEL is embarassing, who has seen ADL??? With QF and AN lumped together in one large departure hall w
27 Dalecary: Tullamarine, I haven't been to SYD domestic for a while but I know the A330 wingspan problem has been thought about by QF and adjustments are minor co
28 B727-200: I am sure with the right gate management, AN could find enough space for A330's in both SYD and MEL. For SYD, I am sure odd-numbered gates 11-19 (on t
29 Tullamarine: B727-200, The SYD gates you mentioned in the old concourse are 31-39. Of these I think only 39 is a definite A330 capable gate and 35 a maybe (there i
30 Aussie_: We talk about A321s - but if Boeing ends up with the order, why has the 757 (-200 probably rather than -300) never been brought up?? The aircraft offe
31 The Coachman: Dale, What's being sacrificed? Is 8-9 hours worth of fuel 30 tonnes? If it isn't, would cargo be sacrificed? I have to agree, I believe the B767-300ER
32 B727-200: Tullamarine, It was the newer of the two concourses or the old concourse "B" as it was formerly named I was referring to. Basically before AN renumbe
33 Jupiter2: I'll go into bat for the 757, it is an extremely capable aircraft, it has at least as much range as the 762's AN have now which would allow them to do
34 Dalecary: The Coachman, Paper reduced MTOW means QF buys the weight they want to operate the planes at. At 201t the A330s will be cheaper to buy/operate than at
35 Manuel: No one has mentioned the commonality of the A330 to the A340. As much as I can remember Ansett plans to expand their international network (which sure
36 Aduum: So do you all think that the major factor here is weather they go for the A340 for international ops or more 747s for international service, to decid
37 The Coachman: I think they can mix it up, eg 744, 763/764, 319/320/321. Dale, But if QF buys the strengthening needed, for the domestic market, that will increase w
38 Oz777: Interesting that the B757 issue has been raised. While we are discussing pilot cross qualification on the Airbus fleet, one thing that must be factore
39 RayChuang: I wonder why Ansett has not considered the 747-400D that is used by Japan Airlines and All-Nippon Airways. However, instead of using the JL/NH 30" pit
40 The Coachman: RayChuang, I'm not even going to comment on the first paragraph. The AN doesn't want an all economy aircraft. It needs some sort of business class to
41 Skystar: Well, Ray, the simple fact is in order to have frequency, you can't fly that big an aircraft. Secondly very few gates at the domestic terminals can ha
42 BA FOREVER: I'd love to see an Airbus A380 in Ansett Colours ! ! !
43 Jet_guy: but i dont think you will BA FOREVER.....just like you wont see NZ give up AN without a fight!
44 Aduum: You never know BA FOREVER and Jet_guy, what if SIA offloads it's A340's to Ansett, then Singapore has some problem or dislike with their A380's and so
45 The Coachman: In that case, the Air NZ parent would snap them up and put em to use on the US routes. Unless SQ gains a direct equity access into AN. But that topic'
46 Celticmanx: If Ansett want to replace the 767 fleet, they will but in long-term. Meanwhile they are operating the 762 and the 763 for the high density domestic ro
47 Jupiter2: Celticmanx, the only 767's QF are replacing with the 332's are the 762's, QF have no intention of getting rid of their 763's for a long time. If you l
48 Aduum: Another question... Why doesn't Ansett think about leasing all these aircraft instead of buying them for $5billion? At least until they have the money
49 RayChuang: Actually, there's a potential new issue in regards to flying between Sydney and Melbourne--the possibility of a high-speed rail link between the two c
50 Dalecary: The Coachman, I know for a fact that QF will be operating their initial 330s at a paper reduced MTOW of 202t(not 201). This has been discussed on othe
51 B727-200: Skystar, Just on the A321's, they can not fly MEL/SYD-DPS. In fact, they will struggle with a full load SYD-PER during Sep-Oct. The MTOW you quote fo
52 Skystar: B727-200, Thanks for your response. The 93ton MTOW increase for the A321 is reasonably recent, I remember at the time AN was looking at it, they were
53 Oz777: Dale You will appreciate this....over the last two weeks ANZ has been offered very good terms from Boeing over 4 777-200 ER's (a cancelled order perha
54 Dalecary: Oz777, obviously the 777s will not come from SALE,although they could be from another leasing firm(ILFC,GECAS...). I would be surprised to see 4 777s
55 Dalecary: Oz777, interestingly, on the Boeing web-site, it shows that RG indeed have 4 GE powered 777-200ERs on order starting later this year. As far as I know
56 B727-200: SKYSTAR, Maybe the 1-ton difference is figure rounding, where independant engineers use a "half empty" view and Airbus use a "half full" view of the
57 Aussie_: Varig being a star alliance airline might one other reason why AN/NZ may be getting these planes. I however wonder if NZ needs a 777 size plane. The 7
58 The Coachman: 777's would not be a good domestic aircraft for AN. As discussed, they're too heavy. Internationally...well...perhaps. Dale, I don't think the failure
59 Dalecary: The Coachman, I completely disagree. The 777 would have been a very powerful tool in QF's hands. I doubt they need either the A330/777 for domestic op
60 Tullamarine: Dale I know you have always been disappointed with QF's decision not to take the 777 but I think you will find their reasoning was quite sound. QF hav
61 Jet_guy: I think that you will find that QF are operating 1 stop flights from BNE-LAX, via AKL on a daily basis with a 744 About the NZ 777, I believe it would
62 Dalecary: Tullamarine, Russ is a good personal friend of mine and if you read the orders forum when the A330/380 possibility came up around October last year, y
63 The Coachman: Dale, If the B777-200ER had been a better aircraft for QF why didn't they order it? The reasons I believe (among others) need to be looked at closely.
64 Dalecary: The Coachman, Just a few points and I agree we should get off the topic. The 772ER is an extremely versatile machine and not one for long-thin sectors