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NCL-JFK/EWR Back Un The Cards  
User currently offlineBA174 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 753 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7941 times:

http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/business...g-apple-link-talks-51140-29278123/

I personally think he is very over confident about it. I doubt AA/DL/UA will be interested. If anyone would have made a go of it that would be UA (nee CO) as they lead the NYC-UK regions boom but even that is now dwindling with the axe of BRS. AA deemed it a non-starter years ago when they had poor forward bookings for their announced service.

23 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8051 posts, RR: 54
Reply 1, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7839 times:

I wonder why AA's forward bookings were so poor, and for that matter why CO never had a bash at it during the height of their UK provincial expansion (Belfast, Bristol et al) - it's a big city and right there on the North Sea (oil), it's wealthier than most of northern England.

Emirates had a fantastic start-up at NCL. Shame it can't be reproduced westbound. (I agree with the interviewee, at $120 / bb for oil it won't work. And oil ain't gonna go below $120 again, ever.)



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7363 posts, RR: 14
Reply 2, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7818 times:
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At a time when the majors are scaling back long-established regional UK routes due to the financial crisis, please tell me why anyone would launch a route from the States into NCL?

User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3379 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7739 times:

"And oil ain't gonna go below $120 again, ever."

Isn't it $84 today?


User currently offlinegkirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24907 posts, RR: 56
Reply 4, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7653 times:

Not going to happen for at least 5 years, if ever IMO.

AA failed because they didnt do any advertising whatsover after the launch event, plus oil prices went up so that was a no-go.



When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
User currently offlineBA174 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 753 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7537 times:

BA do very well on the LHR-NCL-LHR shuttle flights with a lot of those pax going on to JFK/EWR so I doubt AA would want to tread on them anyways.

User currently offlinesandyb123 From UK - Scotland, joined Oct 2007, 1072 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7390 times:
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Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 3):
Isn't it $84 today?

Yes! $85 a barrel at close.

The article quotes that NCL want a 777 but average loads are 83% so surely that is a reason not to add another 130 seats a day!?

Sandyb123



DC3, 727, 737, 744, 753, 777, A32X, A345, A388, ERJ145, E190, BaE146, D328, ATR72, Q400
User currently offlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7363 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7360 times:
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Quoting BA174 (Reply 5):
BA do very well on the LHR-NCL-LHR shuttle flights with a lot of those pax going on to JFK/EWR so I doubt AA would want to tread on them anyways.

Wouldn't matter with the ATI that's in place.


User currently offlineHUYfan From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2001, 1406 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7190 times:

While I think AA and UA are out, DL may be onto something with a NCL-JFK route.

I think it would certainly work in the summer, doubtful in the winter. It is true to say that BRS is much more accessible to LHR, and NCL doesn't have that facility in such close proximity. BRS was dropped, and it maybe wasn't expected, but Newcastle has proven it can support long haul routes with EK.

The dollar is now much lower than it was when AA announced the route, and DL's connections out of JFK to MCO and LAS in particluar could be heavily promoted to help support a service.

Just my two pence!

Regards

Mike


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7040 times:

Quoting david_itl (Reply 7):
Quoting BA174 (Reply 5):
BA do very well on the LHR-NCL-LHR shuttle flights with a lot of those pax going on to JFK/EWR so I doubt AA would want to tread on them anyways.

Wouldn't matter with the ATI that's in place.

   If that were the case, AA wouldn't be flying ORD/JFK-MAN either. I flew MAN-ORD back in May and the plane was completely full in Y and about 1/2 full in J.

Quoting HUYfan (Reply 8):
DL may be onto something with a NCL-JFK route.

I got the feeling DL might a carrier ready to make this a go. I doubt we'll be seeing AA give it a go, but with the JV/ATI with BA, this route just might work during the summer season.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3920 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7021 times:
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Quoting sandyb123 (Reply 6):
Yes! $85 a barrel at close.

There's not one price of oil, but several, because there are several oils. West Texas oil may be at $85 a barrel, but Brent Crude (North Sea) is at $111 today...
Add to that the fact airlines hedge a sizable amount of their future needs, and the spot (daily) price of oil turns out to not have a lot to do with how much airlines pay for their jet fuel.



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8051 posts, RR: 54
Reply 11, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days ago) and read 6897 times:

Quoting sandyb123 (Reply 6):
Yes! $85 a barrel at close.
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 3):
Isn't it $84 today?

(To clarify, I was looking at Brent Crude, at $111, not the West Texas Intermediate at $85.)



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlinecslusarc From Canada, joined May 2005, 838 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days ago) and read 6821 times:

Isn't West Texas Intermediate the International benchmark for petroleum?

Jacobin777, why to you think that DL is a the carrier that is most likely to make NYC-NCL a go? In my eyes, either the new UA or AA will try it first. The new UA has the strength of the EWR hub, while AA has its international JV with BA. IMHO, UA has the best chance to make NYC-NCL succeed because it can capture the most flow traffic through its EWR hub.



--cslusarc from YWG
User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days ago) and read 6784 times:

Quoting cslusarc (Reply 12):
Isn't West Texas Intermediate the International benchmark for petroleum?

only in the Americas.

Europe: Brent.

Asia: Tapis.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 14, posted (2 years 11 months 5 days ago) and read 6761 times:

Quoting cslusarc (Reply 12):

Jacobin777, why to you think that DL is a the carrier that is most likely to make NYC-NCL a go? In my eyes, either the new UA or AA will try it first. The new UA has the strength of the EWR hub, while AA has its international JV with BA. IMHO, UA has the best chance to make NYC-NCL succeed because it can capture the most flow traffic through its EWR hub.
Cslusarc, a couple of reasons (IMHO of course).

1)DL is the carrier which is a bit more willing to take chances. Lets face it, even in the article, Airport chief executive David Laws stated it will be tough to make it a go. Given AA's very conservative style, I just don't see them trying this route.
2)I think UA/CO will work more on "fine-tuning" their existing schedule w/out adding new routes (besides some of the routes which will be assigned to the B787's).



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2584 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (2 years 11 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6631 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14):
1)DL is the carrier which is a bit more willing to take chances. Lets face it, even in the article, Airport chief executive David Laws stated it will be tough to make it a go. Given AA's very conservative style, I just don't see them trying this route.
2)I think UA/CO will work more on "fine-tuning" their existing schedule w/out adding new routes (besides some of the routes which will be assigned to the B787's).

Probably agree. DL would probably enter, then pull down to summer only or cancel service all together. I'm sure CO/UA would want to run service all year and would think the 752 would be the best aircraft. The question would be yield and if there are any incentives. UA should have more aircraft available with 763ER conversion to international and 787s coming in. This should reduce the 752 TATL load on this fleet. I hope CO/UA gets some good info on service from the NCL folks and starts this route as it would provide NCL with one-stop conncetions to most of the U.S.A. via EWR.


User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4488 posts, RR: 21
Reply 16, posted (2 years 11 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6444 times:

It would be nice, given the alternatives (EDI and MAN) are both several hours away.

I'm somewhat surprised that Emirates seems to be doing somewhat well into NCL. Does anyone know for sure how they're doing on the Newcastle route?



I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently offlineFURUREFA From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 801 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (2 years 11 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6172 times:

Quoting cslusarc (Reply 12):
Isn't West Texas Intermediate the International benchmark for petroleum?

Delta uses Brent - it's just more reflective of fuel purchasing for a global airline than WTI.


User currently offlinegkirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24907 posts, RR: 56
Reply 18, posted (2 years 11 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 5819 times:

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 16):
Does anyone know for sure how they're doing on the Newcastle route?

I know loads isn't everything, but July saw loads over 90% on the A332HD. When EK used the 77W as a one off into NCL last year as part of the airport 75th anniversary, they managed to fill 98% of the a/c. Bigger a/c used = slightly smaller fares = more pax.

I've a feeling NCL may have to wait for the A350 though.



When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
User currently offlinesandyb123 From UK - Scotland, joined Oct 2007, 1072 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 11 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5229 times:
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Quoting cedarjet (Reply 11):
(To clarify, I was looking at Brent Crude, at $111, not the West Texas Intermediate at $85.)
Quoting tayser (Reply 13):
Europe: Brent.

I stand corrected.

We are talking about American carriers so isn't the American price more relevant? Is it an open market? I.e if the American product is cheaper then buy from there?

Sandyb123



DC3, 727, 737, 744, 753, 777, A32X, A345, A388, ERJ145, E190, BaE146, D328, ATR72, Q400
User currently offlineordjoe From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 11 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4247 times:

I will say that crushing APD is not helping matters.

User currently offlinetsnamm From United States of America, joined May 2005, 628 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2813 times:

Quoting sandyb123 (Reply 6):
The article quotes that NCL want a 777 but average loads are 83% so surely that is a reason not to add another 130 seats a day!?

what does EK operate to NCL now? A330?...certainly any NCL/JFK-EWR would be a 757-200....


User currently offlinesandyb123 From UK - Scotland, joined Oct 2007, 1072 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2753 times:
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Yes, A330 2 class.

Sandyb123



DC3, 727, 737, 744, 753, 777, A32X, A345, A388, ERJ145, E190, BaE146, D328, ATR72, Q400
User currently offlinebeeweel15 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1739 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 11 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2641 times:

Quoting tsnamm (Reply 21):
NCL/JFK-EWR would be a 757-200....

Would a 737-800 or 900 be good also


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