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Who Will Order The First 737 Max?  
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 17313 times:

Man I usually hate threads like these but I had to do it!

Now that it's official and Boeing will in fact be offering a re-engined 737-700, 737-800, and 737-900 thereafter the 737 Max 7, 737 Max 8, and 737 Max 9, who do you guys think will ink the first order.

It seems the obvious "official" first order will be AA as they had stated in their recent order for the NEO that they signed an LOI with Boeing for their 737RE (as everyone was calling it back then) pending the official launch of the program. As the program hasn't been fully defined yet such as all the planned upgrades, I don't even think a list price has been published. OR will be for quite some time now.

But behind or ahead of AA, who do you guys think is next?

My personal feelings is either AA or WN will be the launch operator.


What gets measured gets done.
57 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29671 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 17323 times:
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WN has yet to order it. Evidently foreign customers are involved, so maybe FR finally pulled the trigger on the 200 frame order they've been holding back.

User currently offlineflyorski From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 987 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 17290 times:

This will be exciting to watch 

I would agree WN and of course AA. I know this is something most people do not consider, but I also think LH could order a small amount. They have always wanted a mixed fleet and with the last 737s retiring from the fleet, I could see them placing a small order. However for the launch customer I would guess WN, AA, QF (possible), and FR. JL or ANA could also be contenders.



"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 17226 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Evidently foreign customers are involved

Yes, because I keep reading in Boeing soundbites that they already have a commitment for 496 frames from 5 operators. My question is who. Then, I thought FR would be an obvious candidate but with their commitment to the COMAC project, i'm not sure we'll see them getting any or at the very least, they may mix the fleet but who knows with them.

Quoting flyorski (Reply 2):

I think we can definately add KL to the list.

CO/UA is a headscratcher though. They have a VERY robust fleet of new 738s and 739s (still taking deliveries). The fleet overall is quite young so I question when they will feel the need to augment or replace the frames. Even their earlier build 320s are quit younger than Delta's so I don't think they are necessarily in the same boat.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently onlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5266 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 17193 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
so maybe FR finally pulled the trigger on the 200 frame order they've been holding back.

I wonder if they would take a bunch of NG's - at a highly reduced rate, I'm sure - along with a good chunk of MAX's? They could be rolling over their fleet for the next 12-15 years leading up to the next all-new narrowbody.

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29671 posts, RR: 84
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 17142 times:
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FR's issue is not price - it's the ability for them to resell the planes in short order.

With the 737MAX coming, the value of the 737NG is going to get crimped so perhaps FR feels there is no longer a reason to hold out and placed their order.


User currently offlineInsideMan From Vatican City, joined Aug 2011, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 16823 times:

the issue was PDPs and RVGs.

Boeing could probably sweeten the deal for FR with little to none PDPs, but RVGs go out the window now that the MAX is announced.... Will be interesting to see what happens with FR


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4091 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 15902 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
CO/UA is a headscratcher though. They have a VERY robust fleet of new 738s and 739s (still taking deliveries). The fleet overall is quite young so I question when they will feel the need to augment or replace the frames. Even their earlier build 320s are quit younger than Delta's so I don't think they are necessarily in the same boat.

The only thing I could see UA doing is possibly ordering ~100 737-9MAX or A321neo to replace UA's 757 fleet, which is starting to get long in the tooth. However, seeing that CO has ~55 737NGs on order yet, they could just replace most of the oldest 757s with 739ERs and push the fleet replacement til next decade and new narrowbodies.


User currently offlinefpetrutiu From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 15583 times:

Didn't UA cancelled all the A32X's that were to be delivered and forfeited their deposits a while back? Wonder why that was and what implications it might have on a potential order.

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12409 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 15321 times:
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Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
Yes, because I keep reading in Boeing soundbites that they already have a commitment for 496 frames from 5 operators.

Not a bad start. Many airlines will take some time to review the offer, so more orders will follow quickly.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
so maybe FR finally pulled the trigger on the 200 frame order they've been holding back.

I would consider that a good possibility.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
I thought FR would be an obvious candidate but with their commitment to the COMAC project, i'm not sure we'll see them getting any or at the very least, they may mix the fleet but who knows with them.

FR's commitments to COMAC have so many holes it isn't even funny. I doubt they'll buy the C919 before 2020 (probably later, if ever). For FR's short missions, the greater fan diameter of the C919 is actually a net cost disadvantage.

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently onlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5087 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 15063 times:

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 7):
The only thing I could see UA doing is possibly ordering ~100 737-9MAX or A321neo to replace UA's 757 fleet, which is starting to get long in the tooth. However, seeing that CO has ~55 737NGs on order yet, they could just replace most of the oldest 757s with 739ERs and push the fleet replacement til next decade and new narrowbodies.

They are definitely not in the urgent situation that DL and AA are. But I don't think they can last all the way until the mid-2020s without a narrow body order, because by then most of their A320 fleet would be over 30 years old. So I expect they'll buy some neo/MAX frames at some point, but they don't have to do it right away if they don't want to.



Most gorgeous aircraft: Tu-204-300, 757-200, A330-200, 777-200LR, 787-8
User currently offlinePlainplane From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 832 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 15046 times:

Since the most significant change in the 737 MAX program appears to be the engines could it potentially be made possible to put the newer engines on the older 737-700s, -800s, and -900s?

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16689 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14881 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
CO/UA is a headscratcher though.

Perhaps the 737-7 to replace PMCO's 737-500s.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2428 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14880 times:

If it comes with a 4800nm range, CM (thinking on PTY-MAD non-stop).   


I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2152 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14799 times:
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Norwegian will probably order 50 x B737 Max 8, that is my bet.


Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlinefpetrutiu From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14721 times:

Quoting Plainplane (Reply 11):
Since the most significant change in the 737 MAX program appears to be the engines could it potentially be made possible to put the newer engines on the older 737-700s, -800s, and -900s?

I would seriously doubt that. I really don't think it is as simple as hanging new engines.


User currently offlineck8msp From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 72 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14665 times:

So are the 100 firm 737 orders on Boeing's order book from AA NOT for the Max? Or were they the 737NG with the options being for the RE?

User currently offlineMauriceB From Netherlands, joined Aug 2004, 2487 posts, RR: 26
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14567 times:

I could see airlines like Norwegian and KL to be amongst the first airlines to order the MAX.

Both have a significant fleet of 737NG's, and as far as KL is concerned, by the time the MAX is up for delivery, the first 737-800's are 19+ years old... I could see a combined Transavia/KL order, as HV is already replacing older NG frames, and want's to keep up with its filosofy of keeping the fleet young to stay away from technical problems.

Maybe some conversions from Lion Air?


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16689 posts, RR: 51
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14415 times:

Quoting ck8msp (Reply 16):
So are the 100 firm 737 orders on Boeing's order book from AA NOT for the Max? Or were they the 737NG with the options being for the RE?

AA ordered from Boeing 100 737NGs (current model), plus 40 additional options.
AA also committed to ordering 100 737s with the new engine (MAX), plus 60 options.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1845



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently onlinehomeland545 From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14204 times:

Maybe it could be Fly dubai, EL AL, Aeromexico for there SA ops :p and i forgot the name of the SE asian airline boeing was trying to convince to buy 737 instead of the NEO but i could be wrong


AM2499, AM2082, LY2, AM58
User currently offlinefpetrutiu From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 14136 times:

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 17):
Maybe some conversions from Lion Air?

I think they specifically said that these are NOT conversions, they are all new orders.


User currently offlinemptpa From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 541 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 13601 times:

I had take a wild stab and guess:
Chinese carriers
Korean Air
Air NZ
ANA
JAL
Jet Airways
FR
GOL
AeroMexico
COPA

Just wild guesses.....

Cheers.
MP TPA


User currently offlineusscvr From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 13515 times:
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Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Thread starter):
My personal feelings is either AA or WN will be the launch operator.

I feel that you are exactly right. I feel certain there were a lot of behind the scenes discussions with WN. Here’s why I feel it is so:

WN is the largest US domestic carrier
WN has had nearly 40 consecutive years as a profitable airline
• Meaning it makes good/sound business decisions and
• Meets its financial obligations
WN is the largest 73X operator in the world
WN is a single frame operator (currently) of the 73X with 560 active 73X airframes and 44 in storage
• 44 inactive 732 and 733 in storage
• 169 active 733
• 25 active 735
• 366 active 737NG
• WNs acquisition of FL provide additional leverage opportunities
FL has 52 active 737NG
WN will leverage the 88 FL 717s for MAX frames to maintain its 73X fleet

That means WN will operate 612 73X frames, some of which are aging and will eventually be retired. This will create the “need.” WN will have 88 717 frames that they really don’t want and can leverage for additional cash to purchase MAX frames and/or leverage for better pricing on MAX frames .

I really don’t want this to sound over simplified, but much like politics: Follow the Money. With this much money at stake on both sides, it makes good sense to factor who the major players will be.


User currently offlinebonusonus From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 403 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 13391 times:

Quoting Plainplane (Reply 11):
Since the most significant change in the 737 MAX program appears to be the engines could it potentially be made possible to put the newer engines on the older 737-700s, -800s, and -900s?

Highly doubtful. There will definitely be more modifications required than just engines. Most likely Boeing will have to do something to the landing gear to account for the 9 inches (or whatever it is) being added to the fan diameter. Either that or a reshaping of the engine pylon, or possibly both. People are talking about a new tailcone too for improved airflow/efficiency. With new engines, usually the hydraulics/wiring for them need to be revised. If Boeing goes with bleedless engines, I suspect this complicates things significantly too. On top of that, Boeing will probably offer a new, lighter interior, and maybe reduce the width of the sidewalls to provide a little bit more interior space.


User currently offlinefpetrutiu From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 13361 times:

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 23):
Most likely Boeing will have to do something to the landing gear to account for the 9 inches (or whatever it is) being added to the fan diameter.

There will be nothing done on the landing gear to my understanding, any changes would have to make major design changes to the fuselage.


25 FlyASAGuy2005 : I think the second part is more likely. However, the first 737 Max has is to EIS around 2016, no? I guess many things can change in the next 5 years.
26 seabosdca : The rendering shows the new tailcone and new canoes, and appears to show elimination of one body join on the 737-7. We've also heard rumors of fly-by
27 XT6Wagon : No, They in fact will NOT have to do anything to the landing gear. Its been gone over lots and lots of times, but they have a huge number of options
28 delimit : 2017, but that could possibly change. The program is still being defined. FR rather likes publicity. It's was also a bit of sabre-rattling at Boeing.
29 TP313 : I understand aileron FBW for wing load alleviation / drag reduction purposes, but what would be gained extending FBW to the tail surfaces? I think if
30 FlyASAGuy2005 : LOL now that you put it that way and looking back at what lightsaber originally said, it all makes sense (FR sense that is).
31 Post contains images Navigator : I think you stay inside your US borders too much. Think worldwide... Start thinking Ryanair and such and maybe we have an answer
32 Post contains images einsteinboricua : Would DL be willing to rethink their 737 order and split it so that the first frames are current 737s and future ones are MAX? How about UA/CO? With f
33 FlyASAGuy2005 : Yes indeed this will be a global airframe. I think we'll see very impressive orders much like the NEO.
34 Stitch : A 2017 EIS assumes significant "unknown unknowns" cropping up. Boeing expects that if things go smoothly, EIS will be 2016 (the smoother things go, t
35 Post contains images delimit : Thanks for the correction. I thought 2017 was being a tad too conservative (although I am perfectly happy with Boeing being conservative for a bit ),
36 Blueman87 : i was just about to ask if AA ordered them allready
37 contrails15 : Going a little out of the box here BUT Alaska and Sun Country if of course there still around to get any of these planes. Gives Sun Country some serie
38 Post contains links bonusonus : http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ons-for-737-from-787-overruns.html This article has a bit more detail on the MAX, including a bunch of renderin
39 fpetrutiu : Doubt it, all the 737-900ER's should be delived by 2018 to satisfy their immediate need.
40 Babybus : It's going to have to be the Japanese as always I presume. I feel sorry for them in many ways always having to pick up the gauntlet. I suppose they'll
41 ER757 : Don't know if they'll be first, but I'd bet AS will be an early customer, if not one of the five already committed. Their current fleet is all 737 and
42 Post contains images FlyASAGuy2005 : I think Stitch put it best although he was talking about the actual EIS of the 737 Max but I think the analogy can be applied here. Many "unknowns" c
43 VZLA787 : Now,for example, if AA orders the new 737-8 MAX, will this new aircraft also be a 737-823? Will there be any difference in the way we identify these b
44 FlyASAGuy2005 : That is jsut Boeing's customer number. No telling how they will do it with the 787s and the 737 Max. They may very well jsut drop it. It won't be a h
45 ghifty : I'd imagine the same way the A320NEO and the A320 will be differentiated. Without any..
46 PlanesNTrains : Please tell me you're not implying that the only way Boeing is going to get this plane launched is by the Japanese taking a bullet for them? If you a
47 CALPSAFltSkeds : I've looked through the MAX threads, but haven't seen how the efficiencies will play out. I thought I read where the engines will be heavier. That pro
48 Post contains links flood : AA apparently aren't interested in being the launch operator. From Leeham: "We asked American about this. Sean Collins, director of financial communi
49 XT6Wagon : Its a "free" range increase if what we are hearing is true. The extra range is completely from a reduction in fuel burn, and there will be no lowerin
50 HiFlyerAS : I'm quite certain AS will be placing an order....and likely a pretty big one (50+). We have deliveries of NG's scheduled through I believe 2016 so th
51 Post contains links aacun : There are conflicting reports on this. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sourc...AFQjCNErynk811UU-bQaN-AGN1Dyk6XfJw While Boeing Commercial Airplane
52 brons2 : 737-7xxB? 737-8xxB? 737-9xxB?
53 TP313 : Just remembered another 737 operator: CI They could be another launch custommer
54 qf002 : Boeing is marketing it as 737MAX-7/8/9 so I think: 73X-7xx 73X-8xx 73X-9xx
55 HiFlyerAS : Every aircraft type in the world has a three-character IATA code. I'm not sure if Boeing gets to chose what that will be or IATA but it's got to get
56 qf002 : Yep, I am aware... For the three letter code I think they're more likely to go with letters (like the 77L and 77W) - they could do anything then (bar
57 BA174 : BA for LGW 734 replacement? I am sure I heard they are evaluating it.
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