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Becoming MD-90 Country....MSP/MN Discussion Thread  
User currently offlineck8msp From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 73 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 19 hours ago) and read 6022 times:

previous MSP thread has been archived....Would like to start a new one.


A couple of thoughts for discussion:

With the AirTran/Southwest merger is it likely that either Virgin America or Jet Blue would start service in the near term?

Delta seems to be making a lot of fleet changes,,,i.e 744's out, accelerating retirement of D95's. Any guesses on what else is in store?

How are the winter trans-lant capacity cuts going to effect MSP?

What will the new UA look like in the future at MSP?

If a new international carrier were to start MSP service, who would be the most likely?

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 1, posted (3 years 18 hours ago) and read 5917 times:

Doubt B6 or VX would be coming in. VX just got into ORD and seems to have bigger fish to fry. B6 seems to be avoiding the midwest still. Not to mention that SY would be a LCC presence on any routes they start, which might give them some pause.

Don't expect much more in changes for Delta. Some mainline frequency might be reduced by a flight or two in some markets to make up for the -90s replacing the -9s, but that's about it. It's an upgrade from a customer perspective having the 777 on Narita now instead of the 747 - BusinessElite is far superior with the lie-flats, and Economy is a lot nicer too with AVOD and in-seat power.

I wouldn't expect much in terms of changes from the new United at MSP. EWR and IAH will continue seeing more ExPlus. IAD recently came onboard. The combined carrier serves all its hubs save LAX from MSP now, and they have a pretty decent following there...there are a lot of 1Ks and Globals there, and they are the only other airline with a club.

Don't hold your breath on any new international carrier. Best hope would really by AC upgauging to an E-170 or a CRJ-705, but that might even be unlikely. Just not enough demand for another carrier when Delta has 4-5 flights a day to Europe.


User currently offlineItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1099 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (3 years 17 hours ago) and read 5797 times:

I totally agree with DeltA above. The only caveat being that if and international carrier were to come to MSP, it will be a skyteam member like KE or AF.....but that is an outside chance.

User currently offlineDeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (3 years 17 hours ago) and read 5729 times:

Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 2):
it will be a skyteam member like KE or AF.....but that is an outside chance.

Agree but don't see it happening soon.

ICN might come down the line when KE gets 787s. A 777 is too much plane for MSP-ICN at this time.

The 767-300 is the right-sized plane for CDG right now with the amount of capacity going to Amsterdam as well. In the summer season, it's possible that down the line it might switch with AF to a higher-capacity A330 or A340, but for the winter, a 767 is sufficient. Delta could always be the one to add the A330 to CDG; they have the crews in MSP, so it might make sense to allocate the AF planes to other cities in the network where there aren't as many efficiencies from a Delta network/scheduling side.


User currently offlineaf773atmsp From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2688 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (3 years 16 hours ago) and read 5607 times:

I noticed DL's MSP-MEX service didn't last long. I wonder why.

This October I will be flying FI MSP-KEF-LHR, BA LHR-MUC-LHR, and FI LHR-KEF-MSP. I'll make sure to get plenty of photos and make a trip report.  



It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
User currently offlineacidradio From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1874 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (3 years 14 hours ago) and read 5430 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

In my heart I'd love to see more international service to MSP too. But I hate to tell you that the Minnesota economy is kind of sluggish right now. The economy is really tough. Business is not growing and is very stagnant or stale. In reality much of America is in a doldrum right now.

MSP seems to lose service bit-by-bit. The 744 to NRT is going to be DOWNGAUGED to a 777 (first time since, oh, NW bought the 747 and started flying it to Japan). While not an international flight the direct HNL is gone. CDG is wishy-washy; it's either seasonal or they threaten to pull it altogether. LHR seems to stick around but the fear of it disappearing is always there. It's getting to the point that regional service within Minnesota itself is going to mostly disappear once the Saabs leave the DL fleet! If really bread-and-butter flights like those are changing in size or disappearing altogether I hate to say that it is not very likely that exotic carriers are going to plant their flag at MSP.

Quoting af773atmsp (Reply 4):
I noticed DL's MSP-MEX service didn't last long. I wonder why.

To make a flight work they either need lots of business traffic or lots of people trying to get home. Some large Minnesota companies has offices or facilities in Mexico. The manufacturing tends to all be in the northern part of Mexico - closer to the US border enabling shipment of goods north. People trying to get to those cities are less likely to use a connection through MEX and more likely to use direct service on the likes of CO, AA and others who can get to those northern Mexican cities more directly. As far as business traffic to MEX itself there just isn't enough to justify a whole flight. Some Minnesota companies may have business offices in MEX but they aren't sending enough people there to fill the flights. And Mexican people just trying to go home and visit Mexico? In this day and age with the way fares are priced they are going to take a connection on somebody and save their money.



Ich haben zwei Platzspielen und ein Microphone
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22995 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (3 years 6 hours ago) and read 5206 times:

Quoting acidradio (Reply 5):
The 744 to NRT is going to be DOWNGAUGED to a 777 (first time since, oh, NW bought the 747 and started flying it to Japan).

How does that matter to the local market or to the airport? Every local passenger will still have a seat. Likely, every profitable connecting passenger will still have a seat. Those paying $600 for ORD-MSP-NRT-MNL are those the ones that won't be on the flight anymore (remember, NW was a master at using consolidators to fill aircraft to Asia). Losing those passengers, though, may well be a net gain for the hub's strength.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFSDan From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 755 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (3 years 5 hours ago) and read 5091 times:

As for international service, I would love to see LH on MSP-FRA (333) or KE on MSP-ICN (332). Neither is very likely until the economy starts recovering, and the LH flight seems the most unlikely right now. However, if either LH or KE was looking to expand their US network, MSP would be a logical add for either.


SEA SFO SJC LAX ONT SAN DEN IAH DFW OMA FSD MSP MSN MKE ORD DTW CVG MEM JAN BHM RSW ATL CLT BWI PHL LGA JFK MEX LIM KEF
User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3483 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (3 years 5 hours ago) and read 5065 times:

Quoting FSDan (Reply 7):
As for international service, I would love to see LH on MSP-FRA (333) or KE on MSP-ICN (332). Neither is very likely until the economy starts recovering, and the LH flight seems the most unlikely right now. However, if either LH or KE was looking to expand their US network, MSP would be a logical add for either.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that MSP will eventually get service to ICN and/or PVG. ICN obviously would be because of the KE partnership, and as China continues to grow in demand and importance, a 4-5x weekly MSP-PVG on a 77E or 787 would do well, thinking 3-5 years from now. Also, MSP-FRA is something that has been mentioned before by MAC officials. Back in the mid-2000s LH was supposedly considering a flight. I think a DL 763 would do better in the market, however; LH doesn't have any aircraft small enough to support a nonstop flight between FRA and MSP.

Jeremy


User currently offlineck8msp From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 73 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 4 hours ago) and read 5017 times:

Quoting acidradio (Reply 5):

In my heart I'd love to see more international service to MSP too. But I hate to tell you that the Minnesota economy is kind of sluggish right now. The economy is really tough. Business is not growing and is very stagnant or stale. In reality much of America is in a doldrum right now.

I know that Minnesota has lost some fortune 500 companies the past couple of years, mostly because of M&A activity. Just the past week we learned that Alliant Tech was moving HQ to the DC area.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22995 posts, RR: 20
Reply 10, posted (3 years 2 hours ago) and read 4864 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 8):
Also, MSP-FRA is something that has been mentioned before by MAC officials. Back in the mid-2000s LH was supposedly considering a flight.

What are the business links like between Minnesota and Germany?

If AA/BA ever start using AA 763s for LHR point to point flying, I'd think MSP would be a city they'd look at.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFSDan From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 755 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (2 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4569 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 8):
I think a DL 763 would do better in the market, however; LH doesn't have any aircraft small enough to support a nonstop flight between FRA and MSP.

I suggested LH over DL because of the beyond connections on the other side of the Atlantic. It seems to me that there would be more of a market for MSP-FRA-Europe/India/Middle East/East Africa than for Upper Midwest-MSP-FRA.



SEA SFO SJC LAX ONT SAN DEN IAH DFW OMA FSD MSP MSN MKE ORD DTW CVG MEM JAN BHM RSW ATL CLT BWI PHL LGA JFK MEX LIM KEF
User currently offlineusflyer msp From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4395 times:

Quoting FSDan (Reply 11):
I suggested LH over DL because of the beyond connections on the other side of the Atlantic. It seems to me that there would be more of a market for MSP-FRA-Europe/India/Middle East/East Africa than for Upper Midwest-MSP-FRA.

A CO 762 as part of the Star JV would be perfect for MSP-FRA.


User currently offlineplanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3527 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3813 times:

Quoting acidradio (Reply 5):
It's getting to the point that regional service within Minnesota itself is going to mostly disappear once the Saabs leave the DL fleet!

I started noticing that on the schedules, and that's a bummer. I remember visiting a bunch of small northern Minnesota towns with my grandparents when I was a kid, and I could almost always count on seeing a red tail Saab landing at least once in Grand Rapids, Bemidji, Thief River Falls, etc.



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3731 times:

Quoting FSDan (Reply 7):
Quoting FSDan (Reply 11):

If you're talking about beyond connections and not the local market between MSP and FRA then what exactly does the new flight bring to the table that isnt already offered by MSP-CDG-XXX or MSP-AMS-XXX? Save the intra Germany stuff of course.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineacidradio From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1874 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3630 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
How does that matter to the local market or to the airport? Every local passenger will still have a seat. Likely, every profitable connecting passenger will still have a seat. Those paying $600 for ORD-MSP-NRT-MNL are those the ones that won't be on the flight anymore (remember, NW was a master at using consolidators to fill aircraft to Asia). Losing those passengers, though, may well be a net gain for the hub's strength.

I agree. I guess it's more of a symbolic loss though more than anything. NW was the 747, that was their flagship bird. They were the launch customer for the 744! Those 747s were maintained by many Minnesotans! The daily 744 to NRT has been a piece of local pride. How many other cities the size of Minneapolis have something like that? Not many.

As far as all these discussions about places like FRA, PVG, ICN... is there THAT MUCH traffic or demand for seats to these places ex-MSP? I'm just not getting that feeling.



Ich haben zwei Platzspielen und ein Microphone
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22995 posts, RR: 20
Reply 16, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3622 times:

Quoting acidradio (Reply 15):
I guess it's more of a symbolic loss though more than anything.

I think that's right (and, don't get me wrong, I understand the symbolism). The 747 has probably always been too big for most of the Asia routes ex-MSP and DTW, but NW didn't have a good alternative. DL does, but the downgrades don't mean that the routes (or the hubs) are in trouble - they just mean that DL has more flexibility, and that's a good thing both for DL and for MSP.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2091 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3550 times:

Quoting ck8msp (Thread starter):
What will the new UA look like in the future at MSP?

I do not expect to see much out of UA except for small decline in capacity at MSP.


User currently offlineMSPNWA From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1944 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3481 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 14):
If you're talking about beyond connections and not the local market between MSP and FRA then what exactly does the new flight bring to the table that isnt already offered by MSP-CDG-XXX or MSP-AMS-XXX? Save the intra Germany stuff of course.

What's new is that an MSP originating or ending passenger finally has a choice other than SkyTeam. It may also bring a superior product too.

Quoting acidradio (Reply 15):
I agree. I guess it's more of a symbolic loss though more than anything.

I believe it's far more than a symbolic loss. It's another mark on the line of decreasing importance for the MSP hub. Let's say MSP-NRT was full of connecting PAX. Well, it's called a hub and spoke system for a reason. It's designed to grab and send off connecting PAX to supplement O&D passengers, primarily to the longer higher-yielding routes. PAX that used to connect in MSP will now connect somewhere else. When they connect in another hub, that creates a shift to an oversupply in the MSP hub feed, so now that could be due for a trimming. This cycle, which has been ongoing at MSP for a while, only leads to a smaller, less important hub. That's not a positive for the airport.

Quoting acidradio (Reply 15):
As far as all these discussions about places like FRA, PVG, ICN... is there THAT MUCH traffic or demand for seats to these places ex-MSP? I'm just not getting that feeling.

Why wouldn't there be. Does the local CLT market deserve what they have for non-stop destinations? Does a smaller leisure market like MCO deserve a FRA flight over MSP? Or how does SEA, and not MSP, support not only Delta but also all the major players from Europe? MSP is in no way spoiled.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22995 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3481 times:

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 18):
It's designed to grab and send off connecting PAX to supplement O&D passengers, primarily to the longer higher-yielding routes

And what evidence do you have that the passengers connecting on to MSP-NRT were all "higher-yielding?" Given the general economics of the NW Asia operation, I'd be shocked if that were the case.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineMSPNWA From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1944 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3438 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 19):
And what evidence do you have that the passengers connecting on to MSP-NRT were all "higher-yielding?" Given the general economics of the NW Asia operation, I'd be shocked if that were the case.

That was a general term, Cubs. I don't need to prove that the hub-and-spoke network is designed to grab and send as many people as it can to higher-yielding routes, like international destinations. It wasn't invented so the domestic passenger could get the beach from anywhere for $100.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22995 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3408 times:

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 20):
I don't need to prove that the hub-and-spoke network is designed to grab and send as many people as it can to higher-yielding routes, like international destinations.

But that's not the question. The question is how many higher-yielding passengers. If there are only 250 or 275, the downgrade was shrewd and says nothing about the viability of the hub.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinetreebeard787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 659 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3396 times:

Quoting planespotting (Reply 13):
I started noticing that on the schedules, and that's a bummer. I remember visiting a bunch of small northern Minnesota towns with my grandparents when I was a kid, and I could almost always count on seeing a red tail Saab landing at least once in Grand Rapids, Bemidji, Thief River Falls, etc.

Yeah, I am going to miss the Saab 340. I just flew into BJI yesterday on a CRJ and it was sold out, So I really hope DL can find a way to make Bemidji work.
I remember a few years ago there were as many as 6 flights a day to BJI from MSP on the Saab 340, How times change. One of my favorite plane trips I remember involved taking NW100 PHX-MSP on a DC-10-40 and NW2756 to BJI on a Saab 340, Nothing but a memory now just like Northwest its self.



Allons-y!
User currently onlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4058 posts, RR: 8
Reply 23, posted (2 years 12 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3360 times:

Quoting ck8msp (Thread starter):
With the AirTran/Southwest merger is it likely that either Virgin America or Jet Blue would start service in the near term?

Probably not. The Southwest-AirTran merger just makes the new airline that much stronger. With no new subtractions or additions, they have 24 flights daily combined. I don't think the new Southwest will be cutting the Atlanta routes and I'm undecided on MKE, but it's more likely that Southwest will add than subtract at MSP.

Quoting ck8msp (Thread starter):
What will the new UA look like in the future at MSP?

Probably not terribly different. UA is a relatively minor player at MSP as is CO.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 1):
Not to mention that SY would be a LCC presence on any routes they start, which might give them some pause.

I don't think an airline that only owns 12 aircraft gives much pause to anybody, no matter how popular they are.

Quoting acidradio (Reply 5):
MSP seems to lose service bit-by-bit. The 744 to NRT is going to be DOWNGAUGED to a 777 (first time since, oh, NW bought the 747 and started flying it to Japan).

It's a downguage in capacity, not product. From what I've heard the 777 is a better product. It's also more fuel efficient than the 744, which may well be better utilized on a much shorter Europe routing.


User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7188 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (2 years 12 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3213 times:

yeah when i was there on the 12th there certainly were plenty of MD90s compared to MD80s,752s,753s. Saw at least 2 DC9s though and travelled on one too. There are bucket loads more RJs than anything else though..

I've heard that DL are looking to dehub MSP. Don't know if it's true or not though.


25 HPRamper : Just what we need, THAT can of worms to be opened on A.net. Highly, highly doubtful. MSP is the hub for a region not effectively served from any of t
26 aerorobnz : I tend to agree with your sentiments CVG/MEM will have long since gone as hubs by the time MSP gets the boot as a hub but remains a focus city.
27 PSU.DTW.SCE : Yep, DL's long-range plan by 2020 is to de-hub CVG, MEM, DTW, MSP, and SLC. Retire all of the 744, A319/A320, the A330s, drop 50% of the TATL & T
28 mcg : i can't help but share a memory I have of NWA and MSP. 15 or so years ago my daughter and I were standing on Concourse G. She was about 10 years old.
29 cslusarc : .. only if WTI was $40/barrel. In today's economic environment a 762 on MSP-FRA is totally uneconomic. The best plane would be a two-cabin 763 (or th
30 PSU.DTW.SCE : MSP-FRA, no market. TATL flying is a stinker across the board right now, see all of the pull-downs by DL, UA, and AA plus their JV partners. Between t
31 danild : I think Delta got greedy with the route, We run a local travel agency, and I remember at some point Delta's round trip to MEX non-stop was like 1200,
32 usflyer msp : IMHO, MSP-MEX has to be operated by AM in order to be successful. Most of the connections are going to be on the MEX end and DL was reluctant to make
33 usdcaguy : What if it the prorate from MEX to other destinations in MX was too expensive to make the fares low enough? You likely have a point, that AM would do
34 usflyer msp : Its more of a matter that DL flies to all of the major cities in Mexico themselves from ATL and would rather keep all of the revenue (I can't blame t
35 sunking737 : I see this has become a Delta thread, I thought it was about MSP. IIRC other airlines do serve MSP. Like SUN COUNTRY. Also about MN aviation in genera
36 aerorobnz : It's hard not to, DL has a major impact on MSP. What they say goes. In the course of a 8h spotting trip DL accounted for probably 80% of movements. O
37 HPRamper : Most A320/321 but also some E190s mixed in. Definitely a bigger op than it used to be.
38 ck8msp : I talked to a Sun Country mech the other day and he mentioned that they were/are picking up 2 more 737's. They should be on stronger financial ground
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