LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 22240 posts, RR: 51 Posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 30452 times:
Atlas Air exercised termination rights for three early build 747-8 Freighters due to delays and performance considerations.
Atlas Air now expects to receive three 747-8Fs in 2011, four in 2012, and two in 2013 with the first five having been placed under long-term ACMI contracts with customers already. (British Airways & Panalpina)
jetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2053 posts, RR: 1 Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 30463 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
Should be interesting to where these birds end up! Wasn't too unexpected after the announcement with Cargolux last week!
Blue
[Edited 2011-09-21 13:54:52]
Professor Foltz: You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger.
ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21041 posts, RR: 60 Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 30173 times:
This might add to the UPS rumors. If UPS can take the 5 early build birds at a 744F price or below, they might just do so. Their business model is a bit different and they could deal with the performance issues until the GE fixes are implemented in 2013.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
BoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1090 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 29830 times:
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 3): This might add to the UPS rumors. If UPS can take the 5 early build birds at a 744F price or below, they might just do so. Their business model is a bit different and they could deal with the performance issues until the GE fixes are implemented in 2013.
The GE fixes wont be implemented until first engine overhaul which will be in the 2016-2017 time scale
wjcandee From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 4588 posts, RR: 18 Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 29745 times:
Kind of funny that Atlas is acting imperiously, given that Boeing allegedly screwed Evergreen and gave the VLF contract to Atlas to keep it happy vis a vis the 748 delays...
ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21041 posts, RR: 60 Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 29460 times:
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 4): The GE fixes wont be implemented until first engine overhaul which will be in the 2016-2017 time scale
This I just don't understand. GE should be offering to swap out engines if that's the case and then overhauling them and offering them as discounted spares. It's obvious they are not PIP changes, but that doesn't mean the overhaul can't happen earlier.
Or it may be that GE is within their contracted spec, so they don't feel any obligation to do this, but overall, it puts the airframe out of contracted spec, and means airlines can cancel. In which case GE and Boeing are going to have a bunch of lawyers working out who is the one who owes what in that F-up.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
BlueBus From United States of America, joined Feb 2011, 81 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 29284 times:
Wow, not good luck for Boeing this week huh? Let's hope the 787 goes on Monday.
Quote:
Atlas Air’s decision is “absolutely unrelated” to Cargolux delaying their first 747-8 delivery.
and
“Though the first airplanes off the line are slightly short of expectations, these early-build models nonetheless will be great airplanes with unparalleled efficiency and low costs. As with all programs, we’ll continue to focus on performance improvements that increase the value these airplanes will bring to our customers.”
Story also talking about a big drop in Atlas stock recently. Things aren't going so well for them either.
glbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 487 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 29275 times:
This is going to rapidly spin out of control if it hasn't started already. You have to think every other buyer on the order list is reevaluating their options.
Newark727 From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 1192 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 29068 times:
Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 8): This is going to rapidly spin out of control if it hasn't started already. You have to think every other buyer on the order list is reevaluating their options.
But where do they go instead? The only alternatives I can think of would be the 777F (didn't CX spring for a few of these?) or more of the same (used 747 freighters or passenger conversions.)
FAEDC3 From Ecuador, joined Jun 2007, 149 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 28714 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9): Um they have been posting RECORD profitability for the last 3-years running, and are forecasting another $125mil+ profit this year.
If that is not 'well' then I don't know what is.
Stock price these days unfortunately does not very well reflect actual corporate performance. Atlas P/E is only about 8. Bargain of a stock.
Could be a bargain, but any stock that has lost 34% of its price in the last 6 months (from close to $70 to $45) does sound an alarm in any portfolio. Don't get me wrong, I agree with you on the fact that the stock is a bargain... but the market seems to think otherwise....
CX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4385 posts, RR: 5 Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 28714 times:
Over the past several days a "UPS Rumor" has been mentioned but I have yet to hear any details regarding said rumor. Can anyone elaborate on what the rumor currently consists of?
From an aircraft lover's perspective the above information is actually good. Boeing now has 3 747-8Fs to place with a carrier. It could be with a carrier that is already scheduled to operate the 747-8F or it could be with a NEW carrier that wasn't scheduled to fly 747-8Fs!
Also, if the 747-8 saga proves anything it is that marrying an airframe to one type of engine can be a headache in certain cases.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
Babybus From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 3537 posts, RR: 6 Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 28317 times:
Quoting BlueBus (Reply 7): “Though the first airplanes off the line are slightly short of expectations, these early-build models nonetheless will be great airplanes with unparalleled efficiency and low costs.
Hell, look at that for fantastic spin.
Surely the proof is in the eating. The fact that two airlines have got jittery about their new birds is not good at all.
Did BA order these miracle birds? If so what on Earth were they thinking?
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
CX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4385 posts, RR: 5 Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 28117 times:
The Cargolux and Atlas Air issues are not one in the same. I know this is airliners.net but let's not try to muddy the waters.
What can be taken from both airlines actions is the desire to operate the type as entire orders have not been cancelled. IF those issues can be mended, then an airline that can deal with them would be wise to step in and get great deal on new aircraft.
One question that hasn't been answered is what will fill the shoes of the three 747-8Fs for Atlas? It would almost behoove them to ask Boeing about the last two 747-400Fs built that currently sit and await initial owners.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
cosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 648 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 27689 times:
I suspect Boeing already found a new home for these birds. It is difficult to assume Boeing would allow cancellation easily after the fact that Boeing forced Evergreen to let Atlas operate the Dreamlifter as compensation for the delay.
The timing of the Atlas news release also seems to align with the CV stunt which could have triggered interests from someone who think they can operate the early 748Fs efficiently. Let's see what Boeing has to say in the coming days. High season is coming fast and Boeing needs time to repaint the birds.
The economy forward is not looking rosy so there may be more reshuffling of orders.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 22240 posts, RR: 51 Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 27622 times:
Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 11): but the market seems to think otherwise....
Well the market has dragged down Atlas along with the rest of the airlines simply as it does not have a proper understanding of the airlines business model.
Atlas has virtually zero exposure to fuel prices, and has long term contracts that generate fixed revenues.
If you look at analyst opinions, of the 10 that follow the company, 7 recommend a "buy" or "strong buy", 2 a "hold" and only 1 says "sell". Target price of these analyst is $80 for the stock.
All in all the company has done and continues to do very well financially.
Quoting CX747 (Reply 14): One question that hasn't been answered is what will fill the shoes of the three 747-8Fs for Atlas?
Atlas stated it is taking 3 later build models instead.
"three more recently built, better-performing 747-8 freighters were moved to the 2011 delivery positions."
Also remember Atlas has has long term options/purchase rights for additional tails that its free to exercise as appropriate.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
JoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5123 posts, RR: 29 Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 27395 times:
I can see quite a difference in the Atlas and Cargolux situations.
Atlas didn't go on record as recently as 3 weeks ago raving about how great the planes are, going as far as calling them game changers, planning a huge party then cancelling it at the last minute.
If Cargolux had acting in a similar manner as Atlas, nobody would have given it a second thought, especially since the same thing happend to the first few 787's.
col From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2042 posts, RR: 22 Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26982 times:
Damn, just how bad are these test aircraft!
Boeing may need to find homes for 3 to 5 underperforming 747's until PIPs can get them back in line. Obviously the cut throat nature of CV and Atlas business makes it difficult for them to accept these birds as is, or without proper compensation. It looks like they cannot afford the risk of fuel prices against operating these birds. I certainly see some definite relationship between the present decisions of these two carriers, even with the spin. Not good at present, but I am sure they will get placed.
redflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4181 posts, RR: 30 Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26806 times:
It would appear the Atlas cancellation is related purely to these birds being the first three that were going to be delivered to them, and which had performance issues as the early-builds:
Quote: Atlas said the three 747-8s it rejected had been set to be the first ones it received, starting next month, before Boeing rescheduled them to early 2012 and pulled forward three others that were in better shape.
It would appear if Atlas wanted better performing birds it really had no choice but to cancel these three, and probably because of the way the contract was written. These three are being swapped with later builds.
SUNRISEVALLEY From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 3998 posts, RR: 4 Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26802 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 18): Atlas stated it is taking 3 later build models instead.
Since these would be delivered still in 2011 it would seem to me that it is not an engine performance problem, this is going to take longer to fix. See reply 3.
BoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1090 posts, RR: 2 Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26759 times:
Quoting cosmofly (Reply 17): It is difficult to assume Boeing would allow cancellation easily after the fact that Boeing forced Evergreen to let Atlas operate the Dreamlifter as compensation for the delay.
Allow cancellation? Altas air excersized a termination option in the contract as they stated in their press release, there in no ambiguity here they had the right to cancel the order and they did.
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19): Atlas didn't go on record as recently as 3 weeks ago raving about how great the planes are, going as far as calling them game changers, planning a huge party then cancelling it at the last minute.
If Cargolux had acting in a similar manner as Atlas, nobody would have given it a second thought, especially since the same thing happend to the first few 787's.
Rubbish, if CV had cancelled some would still see have seen the hand of Al Bakka behind it, because of the board change. He is the current industry bogeyman.
SSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1 Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 25712 times:
Quoting Babybus (Reply 13): Hell, look at that for fantastic spin.
Surely the proof is in the eating. The fact that two airlines have got jittery about their new birds is not good at all.
Did BA order these miracle birds? If so what on Earth were they thinking?
WIth respect, your post sounds a bit like spin, no? It is not particularly substantive... Are you taking into consideration the acknowledged difference between the first three 8F's and subsequent frames.
I come in peace
25 Stitch: Indeed. Or that even with the 2.7% SFC miss, GE themselves are within contracted spec and it's only the overweight condition that is triggering the t
26 travelhound: I have just read through the Atlas Air press release to try and decipher what is happening. The press release from Atlas is headlined "Atlas Air World
27 aviasian: I get the feeling that delay in deliveries, overweight, performance issues ... are all mere scrapegoats for what is generally a softening of the freig
28 flythere: Oh dear, that must cost a lot of headache to Boeing in all these contractual issue after all the engineering ones. Guess the produced planes had to s
29 embrider: Any reason to truely believe the same issue wont plague the 747-i ?
30 BoeingVista: It is being reported by Scott Hamilton that currently produced frames are 5000 to 6000lbs overweight, that is over Boeings revised plan with the heav
31 PlanesNTrains: CargoLux-related articles and rumors are out there, and many point to the hand of AAB at QR as an instigator. It doesn't mean that the aircraft doesn
32 col: Stitch, are we dealing with two separate misses here? I am not sure of the line sequence of the 5 units being delayed/canx, but if they are the first
33 mdword1959: Hamilton would be a far more credible source of information and "analysis" if his only significant paying client wasn't reportedly the North American
34 JoeCanuck: Call it rubbish if you like...I can only speak for myself but it was the manner of the postponement that make me think Al Baker had a hand in it, not
35 flylku: Performance is an interesting thing. The aircraft can be compared to itself, in which case it has initially missed expectations, or it can be compared
36 par13del: In the Cargolux thread a poster mentioned GE having a PIP for 2013, that was not challenged so is your 2016-2017 something unrelated to the pending P
37 PlanesNTrains: BV was replying to this: Basically, he's saying that it wasn't up to Boeing to allow Atlas to cancel, that instead Atlas had the right as per their c
38 Stitch: Even with the cancellation of their first three frames, Boeing was still able to accommodate Atlas with three deliveries this year, so if the cargo ma
39 BoeingVista: Nope. Others are saying that. GE say that the PIP will be implemented at first engine overhaul, they put this at between 5 and 7 years of engine life
40 mariner: He may be (or his team), but I don't assign any ulterior motives to that. I don't think it is about aircraft issues. I think it is about contract iss
41 par13del: I do not know the details but I would assume that carriers are probably offered a choice since the engines are not up to the specs promised, X dollar
42 Revelation: It'll be interesting to see if this is what ends up happening. UPS took some of the last-build 747-400Fs presumably at a good price, and unfortunatel
43 ikramerica: True. It's funny how these airlines were tolerant of the delays in the program during the economic downturn, but finally now that the planes are read
44 PlanesNTrains: It will make an interesting story if it all ever comes out one day. Sure, but fortunately it sounds like it is resolving itself. -Dave
45 tdscanuck: That's when the PIP goes into the initial delivery engines...there's nothing preventing carriers from strapping newly built PIP engines onto their ai
46 LAXintl: You guys fail to note, Atlas is not reducing it deliveries in 2011 or 2012 arguably the period of greatest global economic uncertainty, but instead i
47 Aircal62: an aside. When Boeing was doing test flying out of the former Norton AFB (SBD) there was one evening as I recall that the 747-8F took off from SBD and
48 travelhound: Good point .... and it just might be the case with the Atlas business model and the contracts it has with its clients the performance shortfall of th
49 wjcandee: I read the Atlas Air press release to mean one thing, pure and simple: they weren't able to place 6 aircraft with carriers in 2011, only 3, and theref
50 Revelation: Other than the tens of millions of dollars to make such a thing happen, which I'm sure you know, so what's your point?
51 MillwallSean: Actually all posters from north America seem to assume so. Based on North American specualtion. European media though, those with access to CV, seems
52 LAXintl: Oh lord, don't know how you come up with such numbers. Atlas was never intending to take 6 in 2011. Plan was 3, which is what they are taking. You ca
53 Revelation: IMHO one must then reach the conclusion that the customers were still willing to accept A380s because they still felt they could make money with them
54 slz396: Correct. The A380 was late and came in a tad heavy, but it did what it was supposed to do from the start. The 748F is not only late and significantly
55 mdword1959: Nevertheless, despite the substantial shortcomings and poor execution, it's still only 20-25% the size of the financial black hole that is the A380 p
56 col: Funny the way both the 380 and 747 are both in this deep hole. Wait, they have another 20+ years to find a shovel and get out. My money is on the sho
57 mdword1959: Neither one of these programs was sold to investors/stakeholders as taking 20+ years to recoup the requisite investment - had that been the business
58 parapente: Everyone seems to expect the A389 to be launched in the "nearish" future.Pehaps in 2/3 years time? This will use the (already built) heavier wing.It m
59 col: Did you not like my spin. If I was actually being serious I may have put some fiscal facts in that in 20+ years both projects would pay back their de
60 mdword1959: LOL A large shovel is always necessary to dig for the proverbial pony in the manure pile.
61 Chrisba777er: Combi not going to work because of the weight required to get it certified by the regulatory authorities prohibitive and would make it unworkable. A3
62 N14AZ: I remember clearly an interview with a technical responsible during the time of the 748's first flight and he stated that the -8 still has potential
63 par13del: Yes it will cost money to replace the engines when the PIP becomes available, but if the PIP is to bring the engine up to the spec that it was initia
64 parapente: Reply 61. Sorrly my mistake I meant F not C!. I don't believe it would involve a major change.After all, the origonal "F" had garnered a load of order
65 nwaesc: Um, not so much... +1 to all of the above. Atlas has executed a huge turnaround since emerging from BK, and are well positioned going forward, even i
66 Stitch: If the 747-8F was as much a PoS as some folks are gleefully rubbing their hands at the thought of, we'd be seeing wholesale cancellations. Instead, we
67 tdscanuck: My point is that it's misleading to suggest the PIP improvements won't be in the fleet until 2017. If the original engines are short of spec the cust
69 lhrnue: Exactly. Nothing is confirmed by either Boeing or Cargolux, the only two parties which could confirm anything on this topic. However by permanently r
70 airplanecrazy: Does anyone know what the ton-mile costs differences are between a 747-400ERF and a 747-800F? I see references on Boeing's web site claiming 16%, but
71 Jacobin777: Such a bitter pill that CX has been on record just a day or so ago stating they can't wait to take their planes. Same with LH on the -intercontinenta
72 airproxx: What I thought at first read!... By "performances" we should understand Atlas performances, and not the 748's
73 slz396: I can very well imagine customers will finally want to take delivery of planes which they have been waiting for several years longer than they ever e
74 PlanesNTrains: It's a little unfortunate that you are so focused on making this about flags and fanboyism. But I can't control how you see things. If you choose to
75 airproxx: I'm not sure we should understand this "cancellations" as you do. As far as I know, Cargolux is running late on integrating the 748F to its fleet. Th
76 Jacobin777: Hesitation of delivery and "outright cancellations" are due to multiple causes (which have been mentioned ad nauseam). From reading your extremely bi
77 Revelation: If Cargolux ends up keeping the same number of frames then that case would be similar to what some 787 customers did, but Cargolux for some reason ch
78 airproxx: Very true. I think people mistake cancellations and delivery delay. But it still doesn't change anything in the fact that the 747-8 still is a very g
79 BlueBus: The 27th is when the first 787 Dreamliner is scheduled to fly off. This has to be hard for the Boeing employees on the 747 program. I know there has b
80 Stitch: At the moment, they have done just that, with Boeing recording three cancellations for today's order update. But Atlas could always place a new order
81 par13del: Atlas is cancelling 3 frames, some 787 customers have cancelled entire orders, I do not remember if any 787 clients have done similar reductions. On
82 Stitch: The QF Group have cancelled some 787-8 orders from their original agreement. AI would like to do the same, if the Indian government allows it.
83 747classic: For the record : we are talking in this thread about 747-8 airframe #10 , #13 and #18 , all three were earmarked to be leased to BA World Cargo (GSS),
84 odysseus9001: Trying to establish what happened with Cargolux and Atlas from their press releases and airliner.net speculation is probably going to be fruitless, th
85 phishphan70: What are the chances of CX taking these birds? I heard a rumor that they want to take them. Has anyone else heard this...or does anyone else have hard
86 blueflyer: You could argue that they didn't manage to place any. Why? Because the three aircraft will replace 744Fs on a one-to-one basis and Atlas has no custo
87 kanban: Hey guys... this thread is about Atlas cancellation, there is another thread (as you know) for Cargolux issues... let's keep them separate.
88 flyingAY: What do you base this claim on? I understood from LAXintl earlier in the thread that Atlas is actually doing pretty well...
89 Stitch: Atlas is taking their three planned deliveries this year, even if not the originally-contracted frames, so they must be doing well enough to afford th
90 lightsaber: I suspect the issues are the economy. As noted, this could be to save capitol dollars. I suspect 'get of jail free' clauses in the contracts are bein
91 GymClassHero: First Cargolux, now this? Good lord. Are the early-line models so bad that not even PIPs can redeem them?
92 packsonflight: The rumors inside Cargolux house is that she is 7000kg overweight and the burn is 4% more that promised. I would call that alot!
93 BoeingVista: Pretty sure that what LH said was that they did not think they would be affected on the routes that they were intending to run the 747-8I on. Can we
94 Baroque: Except for indications rather than answers from customers. Too much totally hidden except presumably from boards of Dirs, Not a good place for simple
95 Stitch: No, they're still on schedule to take the same number of deliveries for those years. It will be later years where they "come up short" if they don't
96 VV701: This is not bourne out by the facts. The first three Atlas aircraft were all destined for Global Supply Systems to be operated on behalf of British A
97 blueflyer: Why is it stretching credibility? Atlas has so far failed to win over a single new customer or to get an existing customer to augment their fleet wit
98 lightsaber: I hope those numbers have grown through the 'telephone' nature of rumors. I've heard 2.7% on fuel burn and less on weight. Either way, it impacts the
99 VV701: I was responding to a Reply that said Atlas business is in signing contracts to offer an ACMI service to the airlines. So I assumed that the pleural
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