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John Leahy Hints At A389 Launch This Year  
User currently offline76er From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 511 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26943 times:

This article just popped up in Dutch newspaper "De Telegraaf' (sorry, in Dutch only)"

http://www.telegraaf.nl/reiskrant/10...nieuw_supervliegtuig_bouwen__.html

A quote: "Ik zou werkelijk niet verbaasd opkijken als de plannen voor de extra large versie van de A380 tegen het einde van dit jaar al werkelijkheid zouden worden"

Roughly translated: "I would really not be surprised if the plans for a longer version of the A380 would become reality before the end of this year."

The article was written by John Eldering, a well respected travel industry journalist.

Interesting..

[Edited 2011-09-22 03:10:27]

162 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4705 posts, RR: 38
Reply 1, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26900 times:
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Quoting 76er (Thread starter):
"I would really not be surprised if the plans for a longer version of the A380 would become reality before the end of this year."

That would be a lot sooner then I anticipated. But then again, the A350-1000 has already sold 75 copies and is still at least 6 years away. So why not launch the A380-900 late 2011/early 2012 with an EIS of 2018-2020. I still think that would be the most realistic possible EIS for the long anticipated stretched and optimised A380-900.  .

Quoting 76er (Thread starter):
Interesting..

Oh yes, very interesting.   


User currently offlineferpe From France, joined Nov 2010, 2800 posts, RR: 59
Reply 2, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26848 times:

Given that the engine for the 389 (TXWB ) is being hung on the prototype as we speak and will be flown in the next days. I would not be surprised to see a 389 being launched by say CX or someone else.

Stretching the fuselage once the engine/nacelle combo has been verified by the 350 program should reduce the risk in a 389 program considerably. What a fine machine it should be, lots of room and lots of range with the leanest/best engine on the planet just now   , the 389 with the TXWB should be a winner into slot-restricted airports.



Non French in France
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2694 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26799 times:

There is another statement from Leahy in which he says "I wouldn't be suprised if the A 389 became reality at the end of this DECADE". Unfortunately, I cannot find the link (again).

An Airbus spokesman in Hamburg has been quoted saying: "it's not a project for the next two or three years but the plans could become reality at the end of this decade."
Source: http://www.shz.de/nachrichten/schles...tretch-version-fuer-den-a-380.html

Is this a contradiction? Or is it rather like EPA sn001 says: launch in 2011/2012 with a planned EIS for 2018/2020?


User currently offlineChrisba777er From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 4, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26740 times:

Too early, for me.

I think launching it now (unless is a very early launch and they have plans to EIS it in 2020 sort of time anyway?) means they're missing a trick in terms of features.

I mentioned in an earlier thread that a 2016 launch for a 2020 EIS makes sense in a lot of ways:

1 - the GENX and TrentXWB will be on wing, proven and nearing the end of their first development cycle, ripe for development and improvement.

2 - My understanding is that the Pratt GTF might be available around this sort of time which would be pretty compelling on an A380 I think.

3 - Airbus should get the A350 out the door first and then incorporate the lessons and efficiency savings they get from this programme into an A389 which would then hit the market circa 2020.

4 - SQ and maybe EK might start to roll over their early build A388s around 2020 and so the market for a prospective A389 around this sort of time would be larger than one now, where most (not all) of the target customers have just handed over billions for their A388s which are still yet to be delivered and are untouchable at present in terms of efficiency and CASM.

5 - We're staring down the barrel of a possible double dip GFC, and the banks are strained - massive capital outlay for an even larger VLA at the moment is not going to be easy to get past the shareholders, particularly with many companies still wrestling with pension shortfalls and forex losses. Wait for the danger to pass, growth figures to rebound and then watch the airlines jump on board in their droves.

6 - The A350 - particularly the A35J if reports are to be believed - is going to be a massive challenge, and taking on an A389 now before the full scale of any pre-EIS issues are known seems unnecessarily risky.

7 - World air travel growth in the key markets will ensure that by 2020 some routes that are 77W or 744 now will be A388 suitable with no difficulty. Routes that are A388 now will move to A389 easily as well.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlinewolbo From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 485 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26709 times:

And they call it the Airbus XXL.  

I can only find this Leahy quote on Dutch and German news-sites but there is a BIG difference in the translation.

The Dutch sites mention "I would really not be surprised if the plans for a longer version of the A380 would become reality before the end of this year." while the German news-sites mention "I would really not be surprised if the original plans for a longer version of the A380 would become reality before the end of this decade."


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6834 posts, RR: 46
Reply 6, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26680 times:

I would be very surprised at this; I think Airbus has more than they can handle in engineering right now, and I do not see any relief anytime soon. The A350 is going to require considerable resources for several years yet; the A320NEO is extremely urgent, and the A400 has not been satisfactorily resolved yet. And if Boeing does start work on the 737RS (which I expect they will) after they get the 737MAX done Airbus will have to answer. I just do not see a good business case for devoting resources toward the A389; there just aren't enough customers for it. I can see hanging A350 (or 787) engines on the A388; that shouldn't take that much effort and will improve performance; but stretching it as well will take a lot more.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlinecuban8 From Kiribati, joined Sep 2009, 269 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 26614 times:

Quoting Chrisba777er (Reply 4):
Too early, for me.

Agreed, unless a key customer that Airbus wants to add to their A380 portfolio is putting some pressure.   


User currently offlineparapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1548 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 26573 times:

There was a thread not so long ago where someone had spotted Airbus at Toulouse flying their test 388 very heavily loaded.

At the time people were speculating whether Airbus was trying to find out where the max (safe) load point was.

Certainly a couple of things are already happening.By frame "xx"/ Can't remeber the number - Think BA was first to receive.

Anyway the aircraft has been on a huge diet recently.I don't know how far they have got with that - but obviously a ton shaved off the weight is potentially a ton of fuel.

The other was a wing improvenment.Changing ther AOA as I recall. No small matter so one assumes they have spotted a decent gain via computer simulations.

The point being that the quote refers to longer - what. Body (thats normally called a "stretch"). So perhaps they mean Longer - range.
Just a thought


User currently offlineA520 From Switzerland, joined Jun 2006, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 26339 times:

Quoting parapente (Reply 8):
Changing ther AOA as I recall.

Sorry for my ignorance: what does AOA stands for?
Thanks


User currently offlinepetera380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 26166 times:
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Quoting A520 (Reply 9):
Sorry for my ignorance: what does AOA stands for?

Angle Of Attack


User currently offlineChrisba777er From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 25823 times:

Quoting cuban8 (Reply 7):
Quoting Chrisba777er (Reply 4):
Too early, for me.

Agreed, unless a key customer that Airbus wants to add to their A380 portfolio is putting some pressure.   

Cathay springs to mind.

Quoting parapente (Reply 8):
There was a thread not so long ago where someone had spotted Airbus at Toulouse flying their test 388 very heavily loaded.

At the time people were speculating whether Airbus was trying to find out where the max (safe) load point was.

Certainly a couple of things are already happening.By frame "xx"/ Can't remeber the number - Think BA was first to receive.

My reading of this is that the 600t magic number for A388 is inching closer.

Quoting parapente (Reply 8):
The point being that the quote refers to longer - what. Body (thats normally called a "stretch"). So perhaps they mean Longer - range.
Just a thought

That's what I thought. Can you imagine the range a 600t MTOW A388 would have? You'd be well into A345/77L territory there I'd imagine.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30612 posts, RR: 84
Reply 12, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 25603 times:
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I am in full agreement with Chrisba777er that this is far too early to announce the A380-900.

A good number of A380 customers have yet to receive their first frames and only SQ is close to receiving all the frames they have contracted for.

To announce now that you'll have a better version, even if said version is a decade away, could have a negative impact on the delivery schedule if customers choose to defer A380-800s in favor of the A380-900.

And Airbus needs to move every A380-800 they can out the hangar, both to reduce production costs (so as to raise revenues per airframe) and to give he 747-8 absolutely zero maneuvering room to secure orders based on better availability.

I would not expect a launch decision before 2015 for the following reasons:

  • The A350-900 will be in production and customer delivery.
  • The A350-1000 and TrentXWB-97 will be in firm definition.
  • All of the current customers likely to take delivery will have at least one bird in hand (I continue to believe VS and IT will not operate the type).
  • SQ and EK will be ready to place replacement orders for their earliest frames.
  • Airbus will have completed whatever engineering studies they need for a TOW beyond 590t.
  • Airlines will have had years to digest the A380-800 and update their traffic models for the coming decades.


User currently offlinehomsar From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1161 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 25349 times:

Quoting parapente (Reply 8):
The point being that the quote refers to longer - what. Body (thats normally called a "stretch"). So perhaps they mean Longer - range.

The quote doesn't say "longer" anything. That's the rough translation provided by the OP. The quote from the OP, in Dutch, says:

Quoting 76er (Thread starter):
Ik zou werkelijk niet verbaasd opkijken als de plannen voor de extra large versie van de A380 tegen het einde van dit jaar al werkelijkheid zouden worden

I don't speak Dutch. Never read any translation books, didn't use Google translate, etc., but I notice the words "extra large" in the middle of that quote. I'm guessing that gives a better context of what they're actually referring to.



I was raised by a cup of coffee.
User currently online747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3502 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 25253 times:

This is great news, I hope they do launch the A380-900 this year. If any thing, we can at least, know the size of A380-900 this years.   

User currently offlinePart147 From Ireland, joined Dec 2008, 480 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 25239 times:

Perhaps the comments aren't contradictory or misleading at all (although they ARE vague!)

I'm paraphrasing now - 'He would not be surprised if the PLANS (for a longer version A380) will become a reality by the end of this year (2011) and the actual AIRCRAFT itself will become a reality by the end of the decade (by 2019-2020)'

  



It's better to ask a stupid question during training, rather than make a REALLY stupid mistake later on!
User currently offlineneutronstar73 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 501 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 25218 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):

I'm with you and Chrisba777ER. As much as this sounds exciting, I think they have too much on their plate and I don't know where they'd get the resources to do it. But perhaps they are anticipating a relatively smooth A350 and A400 project completion, and they don't see any issue with moving ahead.

This also says to me that they intend to send the 747-8 to the showers early. Not like Boeing's woes with the aircraft won't do it for them...


User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 25140 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):

Agreed. I have a feeling the Dutch journalist mistakenly understood end of the year, and the German (thorough as Germans ever are   ) understood it right.

Added to Stitch' arguments, in 2015 the A32xNEO will also be in its final stages of development and nearing flight tests, so there would be resources available.

Many people claim the A389 will be powered by T-XWB engines and GEnx engines, but is that contractually possible? Pretty sure RR wants some more ROI on its Trent900s, and I'm sure P&W won't be thrilled when the GP7200 is dumped in favor of the GEnx. And, IIRC, both T-900 and GP7200 have been developed (and maybe even certified?) with thrust levels required for an A389 in mind, correct?

I seriously doubt P&W will have a GTF with those thrust levels ready by the end of this decade.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
To announce now that you'll have a better version, even if said version is a decade away, could have a negative impact on the delivery schedule if customers choose to defer A380-800s in favor of the A380-900.

Especially with T-XWB's, customers will without doubt want A388s with these engines as well. Another reason to wait a little longer launching the A389.

The -900 will be a far better proportioned aircraft IMO. The article mentions it as 1000 pax aircraft, 160 more than the -800. Can we expect 9 extra Y seat rows on each deck then? And a total length of just under 80 metres?



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineYchocky From Canada, joined Jul 2009, 171 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 25000 times:

A380 MAX?

I assume a simple body stretch? How many extra sections do we wonder will be added?


User currently offlineflythere From Hong Kong, joined May 2010, 438 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 24905 times:

If it were January, I may take a more serious thought on the validity of the news. Yet it is almost October, which I think anything new to come onto plate in coming 3 months is somehow impossible, esp. when Airbus has still very much thing to do with the A359 + 8/10 & A320s neo issues.

User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 24911 times:

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 16):
This also says to me that they intend to send the 747-8 to the showers early. Not like Boeing's woes with the aircraft won't do it for them...

The A380-900 won't kill the 747-8. The 777-9X will do that for the 747-8i, but the 747-8F should keep selling into the next decade.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlinesolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 851 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 24878 times:

Me hope for the A388XR (LHR-SYD / SYD-LHR non stop) about 2020-25

Doubt it will be this year for A380-900 announcement, but keep my fingers n toes crossed

Cheers   



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineFocker From Netherlands, joined Jan 2011, 149 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 24624 times:

Quoting Part147 (Reply 15):
Perhaps the comments aren't contradictory or misleading at all (although they ARE vague!)

I'm paraphrasing now - 'He would not be surprised if the PLANS (for a longer version A380) will become a reality by the end of this year (2011) and the actual AIRCRAFT itself will become a reality by the end of the decade (by 2019-2020)'

Say you are right, and just wildly speculating: Launch by EK on the upcoming Dubai airshow in November?


User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 24589 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Many people claim the A389 will be powered by T-XWB engines and GEnx engines, but is that contractually possible? Pretty sure RR wants some more ROI on its Trent900s, and I'm sure P&W won't be thrilled when the GP7200 is dumped in favor of the GEnx

In the case of RR it may be good to switch to T-XWB so they can streamline the production system. There is no reason to keep a line open just because it hasn't reached "break even." It is how the company makes most money that matters, not ROI on individual models.

P&W's situation is different as they would give away everything to GE.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30612 posts, RR: 84
Reply 24, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 24395 times:
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Quoting Focker (Reply 22):
Say you are right, and just wildly speculating: Launch by EK on the upcoming Dubai airshow in November?

Again, way too early for a launch.

Maybe the 2015 Dubai Air Show.


25 RubberJungle : I was there when John Leahy spoke about this. He absolutely did not say there was a possibility of an A380-900 launch at the end of this year. He only
26 EPA001 : Agreed. And that would fit perfectly after (hopefully) all NEO and A350-versions are in production.
27 bonusonus : Isn't a modification to the wings like this a significant structural change? How can Airbus do this without essentially creating a new sub-type?
28 Post contains images astuteman : RR want an ROI on its engines.... Replacing a T900 with a TXWB won't change that. In fact, the benefit for RR surely is that they will have a much mo
29 JoeCanuck : Are there any potential customers for the 380 that absolutely won't buy an -800 but would buy a -900? The 380 is now, and always will be the CASM lead
30 Extra300 : Maybe not, but they can probably get more payed for each a/c sold. Roughly 25% of the A388 ordered ave now been delivered. If Airbus reaches 36 frame
31 Buyantukhaa : The German article says "Ende des Jahrzehnts" (end of the decade), which the journalist understood as "Ende des Jahres" (end of the year) - this is ho
32 cmf : CX has often been suggested due to freight capacity.
33 FlyingCello : This is a key question. I am honestly not convinced of the viability of an A389. I think it was Richard Branson who said that the A388 would make lot
34 Post contains images a380900 : Sorry for taking this personally but I think I think I'm entitled to given my name tag. As much as I'd like to see that, I'm afraid that the financial
35 Kleiner : My understanding was that VS was only interested in the A389?
36 cmf : There are a lot of factors deciding if it makes sense to create the -900 model but break even isn't one of them. Simplified; if Airbus will make more
37 david_itl : Move that across a 40 year cycle and I'd imagine Airbus will be generating healthy profits... don't forget that those 240 aircraft will need replacin
38 Babybus : That's a really lovely sentiment but I can't see any airline in their right mind ordering a 747-8 just because they are available. With two airlines
39 Stitch : Well Boeing claims they have more Intercontiental orders in the pipeline, so...
40 cmf : True, but I'm sure there are airline who will order it because they think it is the right tool for the job.
41 tullamarine : Realistically Airbus need not rush the A389. The only real competitor to the A388 is the A389. So far there has been no competition that the 748i has
42 Aircellist : I do hope to see the A389, one day, but... If so, this thread is worthless... Sorry, folks, but we should move on... edit: I do not mean to be rude at
43 Post contains links PanAm_DC10 : To clarify, there was one, Air China and it was ackowledged by Airbus, Boeing announced on Tuesday it had done a deal to sell five of its 747-8 aircr
44 Post contains images Cerecl : Since we at A.net are so fond of sidetracking and dragging a thread off course , here is my contribution: The US just agreed to sell Taiwan F16s and
45 328JET : That would be awesome news! But why not - There is interest for that version from the gulf airlines, BA, AF, LH, QF and some asian airlines. Lufthansa
46 rheinwaldner : If only because RR would shake off the US engine competition on the A380...
47 thegeek : I think that represents the earliest possible time for launch of the A388. Airbus may well sell a few more to EK in the mean time, and there are othe
48 Post contains images qfa787380 : Re QF, they just deferred 6 388s for 5-6 years and have never expressed any interest in the 389. I think they would be more likely to order the 77W 1
49 thegeek : They would be crazy not to buy it if Airbus built it.
50 qfa787380 : Really? Why? Honestly, the 388 is such a niche plane suited to such a few carriers, that will only be exacerbated by the 389. I think Airbus would be
51 thegeek : Take SYD-LAX. For only slightly increased trip costs, the A389 carries more passengers and probably cargo. That would mean you could reduce frequency
52 Baroque : Forr RR, might depend a bit on how much of the TXWB can migrate back to the T900. Earlier RR were bullish, but that extra stage is not going in! Then
53 flyglobal : I see a couple of reasons for a 389 Launch - not necessary 2011, but probably 2012 and latest 2013. 1) Get the newest engine technology on this birds
54 na : I fully agree. And I think thats what will be happening. A A389 must have engines one generation ahead of the A388 now, and then it will be the all-c
55 Post contains images astuteman : An 80m long 600t A380-900 with Trent XWB's, say, should provide.. 13% or 14% more capacity 200Nm - 300Nm miles more range than the current A388 Fract
56 Stitch : One item that could hold back RR from tossing the Trent 900 in favor of the Trent XWB is if they do yank the engine early, that is going to impact spa
57 qfa787380 : That's great but who wants it? Is there really a business case for it? Do they sacrifice the slow selling 388 for this model and cop the loss? Is it
58 flyglobal : See a couple of points I listed in Reply 54 and you see some rational I could imagine which could make the launch soon and EIS 2019/ 2020 helpful. Bu
59 747400sp : Thank you for the info. I did not know, it took that long for the 747 to be truly successful. Who would have thought, all those 747s I saw as a kid,
60 thegeek : EK, CX, QF possibly: EY, QR, BA and really every current A380 customer. Less fuel per trip-mile? That'd be good. But why stick with the 79-80m stretc
61 JoeCanuck : The 380 will always be the biggest airliner and can have its already impressive performance improved without stretching. How many more 380's can they
62 Post contains images astuteman : Hey! Gets my vote The biggest reason might be that the 80m stretch is pretty much engineered in, whereas I'm not convinced our dream planes are. The
63 thegeek : Probably not many this decade (some), but they would be able to put a higher sticker price on the A389 than A388 IMO. So there is a possible justific
64 328JET : These "few" carriers are transporting 60 percent of the international traffic worldwide...
65 JoeCanuck : By virtue of its sheer size, the 380 will always be able to be upgraded to maintain its CASM advantage...no matter what Boeing does with the 777. ...
66 Post contains images Aircellist : Finally you were right to ignore my advice. This thread is fun after all, in all its speculation and educated guessing
67 thegeek : How can you be sure that revenue wouldn't be increased? Just depends on if the A389 has a higher price per seat than the A388. Given its improved ope
68 JoeCanuck : That's not quite what I said. The entire quote is; So the caveat was that more seats mean more costs and may mean fewer overall sales. In other words
69 abba : We must also say in this context that orders from China use to be as much based on political reasons as on economic reasons so.... Would it not be mo
70 thegeek : I was just objecting to the "at best" bit.
71 SchorschNG : I fully go with Stitch et el: we won't this aircraft soon, neither launch nor aircraft. Airbus has a monopoly, with the A380 being also the most effic
72 astuteman : Correct. That is exactly what they will do. And is the only answer required for the "why would they do an A380-900?" question. The decision has nothi
73 Aquila3 : Simply the 389 is the natural evolution of the 388, and was well forecasted in the initial project. It will came when the marker will dictate that som
74 Baroque : Hmmmm. I should know better than to argue this one with you but are you not understating the possible influence of a large customer wanting 20+ A380s
75 qfa787380 : [quote=astuteman,reply=72]And is the only answer required for the "why would they do an A380-900?" question. The decision has nothing whatsoever to do
76 thegeek : I think you've missed Astuteman's point. The A388's business case isn't relevant to the decision on the A389. Any more than the A35J's business case
77 cmf : Of course they need to look at the business case before committing to A380-900. But the A380-800 break-even number does not play a role in defining i
78 qfa787380 : I hope you are kidding. Of course the 388's continuing business case is highly relevant to what Airbus will do in regards to a 359. I'm not saying th
79 Post contains images astuteman : Are you taking the p*ss? ScorshNG said To which I replied I'm mystified as to how this differs from your subsequent comment of As even you can clearl
80 qfa787380 : It clearly occurs when the demand driven by the customers reaches a point where Airbus can make a business case for it. I didn't use the term break-e
81 flyglobal : In my opinion they will update the 388 with a 389 launch as well and give it the same features. I personally feel its a bit early for such a launch, a
82 kmz : Hasn't the A380F development covered some features of the -900 such as new fuselage alloys and strengthened wing? That should reduce development cost
83 Post contains images Cerecl : At least you are consistent, not an exclusive A350 detractor I see Seriously QFA787380, you have an amusing history of appearing to fundamentally dis
84 Post contains images frigatebird : They'll have to. Perhaps an A380-800NEO? Just like the A320, alongside with the A380 with the current engines, and charging a premium on the models w
85 Baroque : Don't forget the "Stitch" spares factor. Writing this in LHR waiting for QF32 - an A380 flight - but my seat row number suggests 747. So unless it wa
86 Post contains images astuteman : And they're not mutually exclusive. It's almost certain that any launch of an A389 would bring with it attendant improvements to the A388. It is easy
87 Post contains images wolbo : Well, you're flying over my house right now at FL 330 and it looks like a A380 to me. Have a good flight.
88 Post contains images Part147 : It's moments like this that make Airliners.net what it is
89 qfa787380 : I can see where you are coming from. However, if both Airbus and Boeing are maturing and enlarging their LH/ULH twins, then the business case for any
90 qfa787380 : What is the "real" A380 breakeven number? Can Airbus ever achieve this? I suspect it's way north of 500 in a program estimated to cost around $25-30b
91 thegeek : Give it a rest. They will continue to try to sell as many A380s as they can. Airbus has no reason to launch a new narrow body until Boeing does. The
92 astuteman : As I've not seen anyone else answer this question - no, it wasn't a significant structural change. It is debatable, and you ARE guessing. It would be
93 WingedMigrator : Or, to give an order of magnitude, the equivalent of six frames at list price. Maybe just five, since the A389 might be the first airplane to break $
94 Post contains images thegeek : Yes. Doubtless A340NG vs A330NG was a mistake. Perhaps an A350XWB sized plane at the time would have been even better although I doubt that. A nine a
95 qfa787380 : Of course that's in your opinion. Why aren't the big twins a threat to the 380/748I? The big twins are only going to get bigger and better and are in
96 astuteman : Indeed. Accepting that the model only works when the plane is deployed to utilise its potential, an 80m A389 is the equivalent of 2 x 773ER's, and as
97 Post contains images WingedMigrator : To make shitloads of money?
98 Post contains images frigatebird : I wonder if someone ever considered the A345/346 with 2 engines (would have been possible with 100k+ thrust Trent 800s), or A330's with A345/346 leng
99 Stitch : It does not, but one A380-900 will, at least in terms of passenger capacity.
100 Post contains images astuteman : I never said they weren't. It's clear that EVERY aircraft category is at threat from alternative strategies enacted with different aircraft types. Yo
101 Post contains images parapente : You only have to look at the growth rate of air travel year on year to see why the A380 exists. There is no sign of this growth changing for the secon
102 Stitch : It's possible the mere existence of the A380 will expand the VLA market because there now exists a model that can address that market and does so in
103 Post contains images Jacobin777 : If there are enough carriers wanting the A389 then there is no reason why Airbus shouldn't build it. Right now however, I think Airbus is more intere
104 Wsp : When are the first under-utilized production slots opening up on the 787 line?
105 Baroque : 100% correct wolbo - the seat row numbers must have been in my forgettory and not my memory. Been trying to say this for a couple of hours, but this
106 Post contains images astuteman : Couple of things. Funnily enough, I AM salivating at the prospect of a 787-10X, but then I'm not predicating it on the 787 programme having to break
107 Post contains images Jacobin777 : AFIK, it won't be for quite sometime but I don't know the year/dates. Fellow A.netter Stitch would probably know a bit more. I agree on that premise.
108 astuteman : As always the answer to this question is !it depends on what the scope is". We know that most of the requirements for a "simple" stretch of the A380
109 Post contains images EPA001 : Hard to say. We know Airbus has already everything in place to build a 600t 80m x 80m A380. But, will they do more? More CFRP or lighter aluminum? Wa
110 Post contains images EPA001 : You are usually correct imho. And you posted (just a bit earlier then me) something along the same lines as I have written. I guess we are in agreeme
111 thegeek : I see where you are coming from with the 79-80m stretch of the A380 then. I'd have trouble justifying triple the program cost for the 85m A380.
112 JoeCanuck : The difference I see between the proposed -10x and the 389 is that Boeing has competition in that segment and want their share of the pie and the 380
113 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : At least its some some range. I have no clue at all about the B787-10X. I got the feeling that at the very least, the "original" B789 wings will have
114 Post contains links Baroque : Wonder if you are referring to the parallel universe into which my password for a.net apparently disappeared? If you are there and happen to come acr
115 Stitch : We're at four years and three months since QR ordered the A350-1000 and Airbus is still fiddling with it. *shrug*
116 Post contains images Baroque : Help, nearly two more years of threads on what the 35J should be! And how inadequate the big Roller will be as well! Or then again, the 789 is not ye
117 Post contains images Stitch : Sorry. Been mostly staying out of that one as I am not in agreement with those who have been dismissive of the A380-900. We know Airbus has designed
118 Baroque : Or to put it another way, if they do not have a good feel for it ..........!!!!! Well lets say I would not be so keen to be a pax on the 388!! One is
119 Jacobin777 : The difference however is that the B787 "family" consisted of the B788/B789 and B783. The A350 had all three variants from the word "go" and thus was
120 Baroque : What I find a bit odd is that - maybe with the exception of the 787-10 but I am not holding my breath - all these new widebodies carry around a whole
121 rheinwaldner : Right! I have always said that the 77W would not be a medium twin but a VLA. The combined 77W, 748 and A380 sales mean that the VLA segment in the la
122 flyAUA : Being the sceptic that I am, I will question the "rumour" as I find it hard to imagine that Airbus will be "wasting" resources on an A380 stretch with
123 JoeCanuck : ...or, simply putting more seats into the 388.
124 Post contains images Stitch : Very much so. If Airbus was starting design work on the A3XX now, perhaps they would be considering CFRP for the primary structure. But at the time (
125 Post contains images Extra300 : Sorry if this it a little OT, but what does penalty mean in this sense. My interest for aviation is relatively new Thanks
126 Post contains images flyAUA : That and the fact that the user you are quoting is ingoring that not everything can simply be up or downscaled that simply. I dare to bet that CFRP w
127 Post contains images astuteman : To an extent I'd say that it may well still be "a wonder material" - especially in "GLARE2" mode. I don't think most A-netters who fly, or want to fl
128 Post contains images flyAUA : Really!? I could have sworn I was told (at the factory tour) that the A380 skin was aluminium with layers of glass on top!!! Are you messing with me?
129 Baroque : "Yes really" and "not he is not". And that description is not that far away, but doing that is quite tricky and having that sort of composite does ha
130 Post contains links U2380 : Interesting comment: "My own view is that the A380 would do most of the U.S. operations," said Mr. Clark in an interview. Airbus, owned by European Ae
131 U2380 : That quote was from a wall street journal article. I can't post the link, my fault.[Edited 2011-09-28 09:47:01]
132 parapente : Could this be hinting at an A389 or just the improved A388? Was it not BA that were said to be receiving the first of the higher MTOW A388's? Or am I
133 Post contains images astuteman : The upper part of the fuselage skin is indeed an aluminium/glass composite - GLARE. And most of the rest of the fuselage skin is good old-fashioned a
134 Post contains images Stitch : Penalty in terms of carrying the necessary structural weight to tank enough fuel to fly 15,000km when the majority of your operators might only fly 1
135 qfa787380 : There's ample evidence out there now that the 77W, in particular, is threatening VLAs at many carriers. Heck, BA have only committed to 12 380s to re
136 cmf : Of course you are. Are people allowed to question the rules you apply? Why is less than 300 (236 actually) an issue? There has only been 188 x 767 an
137 Baroque : Yes, I had seen that episode on our SBS network. It was that which set me thinking as we approached SIN. But the ITCZ was pretty quiet early on Tuesd
138 Post contains images flyAUA : Okay, so you were talking about absolute numbers. Funny how one word changes the meaning of an entire phrase! So yeah, basically we were in agreement
139 Extra300 : Don´t underestimate the marketing value of having the largest bird in the skies. Airbus wouldn´t be so well known world wide if it wasn´t for the
140 qfa787380 : Subtract EK(90) out of that and it's miserable IMO. Production slots are only sold out for that long because the production rate is at snail's pace.
141 qfa787380 : How long has it been for sale for? What % of that number is accounted for by 1 carrier? The 767 and 747 have been at end of cycle(until Boeing announ
142 Post contains images thegeek : Criticising the A380 business case is off topic in this thread. You are free to start a new thread to see the interest in such discussion
143 cmf : A lot of numbers that mean nothing. Success of a model doesn't depend on how many are sold in relation to other models. If it was only 737-800 and A3
144 qfa787380 : It is not as this thread is talking about the viability of the 389, which is inherently linked to the A380 business case. It is highly relevant!
145 qfa787380 : The poor business case for the 388 is highly relevant for the business case for the 389. You do know that by buying a 787 now, you won't get it until
146 Wsp : So your argument against the business case of the A380 works best if we pretend some $30bn in orders for the type (at list prices) do not exist. Very
147 thegeek : No way! Whether or not the A380 as a whole is profitable is completely irrelevant as to whether the A389 should be launched! You still seem to have t
148 qfa787380 : Against what cost for the program? Can I assume 50% discount at list so that's $15bn in orders. When was it launched? When will all ordered planes be
149 Post contains images astuteman : So the irony WAS lost on you..... Which is a) simplistic, and b) in no way makes it right to suggest that the A380-800 has to break-even before Airbu
150 thegeek : Well if that is what you are trying to say you are putting it very poorly. Perhaps the reason why the A388 program shows poor profit so far (besides
151 Post contains images astuteman : It's impossible to know whether or not the A380 has failed yet. And you actually acknowledged this in post #145. Then proceed to completely ignore/di
152 mariner : That may say more about the present financial situation at Qantas than it does about the A380. Qantas would be foolish to dive too far into the well
153 flipdewaf : So if you take away some of the orders then there isnt as many orders? lol. Money from EK must be worht less than other money. No, I dont think you c
154 tropical : The A388 is a failure? That will come as a surprise to just about everybody... It is entirely possible the A380 programme might never break even, or
155 maxter : I find this statement highly presumptuous and way premature... On what basis has it failed? Edit: While it appears that I have repeated this question
156 Baroque : And about its decision to order "106-110" A320 aircraft. This latter seems like a major change in strategy especially the use they plan for the 78 A3
157 Wsp : I am sure you can look up the cost according to the business plan in one of the press releases around program launch. So why did you suggest to ignor
158 Post contains images Stitch : Did I just see a ? So if EK orders 100 A380-900s, the model will have traction in the marketplace. Having only ordered 90 A380-800s, I can see how th
159 cmf : I do not see a problem with the business case. I thought it was a small chance when they launched it but I think they have proved there is a market.
160 Baroque : Ouch! That is the wonderful thing about a.net, you never know when you are going to bump into someone who actually DOES know. That looked like an ace
161 zeke : I would not be surprised either. More and more people can afford to fly these days, and it is putting a lot more pressure on ground infrastructure, h
162 thegeek : ^ That's a very short time frame. I'd be impressed. Isn't there more percentage in squeezing at the lower end? I.e. RJ->737->A330. I think airpo
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