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Will QF's Soon-to-go Routes Be Back Again One Day?  
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 7662 times:

Very sad to learn that HKG-LHR, BKK-LHR will go soon. Will they ever return after years when they have more aircraft?

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9466 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 7663 times:

I doubt it. QF has a big disadvantage to Europe. Having a hub in the middle of Europe - Australia is ideal. The Middle East and Asian airlines have the advantage and don't have to depend on connections. QF in my opinion will never be able to gain back market share to Europe. It's the same geographic problems that hurt US carriers to India and Indian carriers to the US. On the long haul markets, an airline based in the middle wins.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinedeltamartin From Sweden, joined Dec 2010, 1061 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 7620 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
On the long haul markets, an airline based in the middle wins.

And that is especially true on a market like Europe - Australia, since nonstop is impossible to do profitable in with the available technology and rising fuel price.
Which means that the traveler, regardless of choice of airline, will have to land somewhere on it's way to the destination.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2947 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 7348 times:

Very doubtful. If there are additional flights into LHR (or Europe as a whole) in the future with QF then they will be from their new Asian base (which all depends on where they decide to set up their new airline -- my bet is SIN but KUL is also on the cards).

User currently offlineFlyboyOz From Australia, joined Nov 2000, 1985 posts, RR: 26
Reply 4, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 6986 times:

Qantas international flights are unprofitable more than other QF businesses such as domestic, cargo and frequent flyer. So QF CEO has decided to change the business in order to bring the profit back to normal. Too many competitors take over Qantas business.


The Spirit of AustraliAN - Longreach
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 6777 times:

When QF takes more A380s will they bring back HKG-LHR and put them on this route? They can be the first to put the A380 on the route.

Thought BKK-LHR was QF's first ever route to LHR. Why didn't it perform well?


User currently offlinesydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2905 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 6752 times:

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
Will they ever return after years when they have more aircraft?

The next LHR fligth for QF will be PVG-LHR once the bilateral with the EU is sorted out. I doubt HKG-LHR or BKK-LHR will return with QF concentrated on routing all of it's Europe bound traffic, on its own metal, through SIN.

The next QF Group Airline to add Europe service will be Jetstar using 787's.


User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 6741 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
When QF takes more A380s will they bring back HKG-LHR and put them on this route? They can be the first to put the A380 on the route.

Well they have deferred the A380s which would operate such a route, which should answer your question. It is possible that QF decides to accept delivery ultimately rather than forfeit the deposit, although I doubt that consideration would rate much.

I think the only way these flights will be back is a change in the CEO and therefore a possible change in strategy.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
Thought BKK-LHR was QF's first ever route to LHR. Why didn't it perform well?

Probably a lack of feed. While there was a JQ MEL-BKK flight, I doubt this fed into the QF BKK-LHR one much. I don't think there was even a code share. Basically BKK-LHR would go out minus people who are heading to BKK from SYD, only adding code share BA LHR-BKK pax, which impedes loads and profit. Similar problem with HKG-LHR, but less severe.


User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5602 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 6739 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
Thought BKK-LHR was QF's first ever route to LHR.

Your are kidding, right????

BKK-LHR (NS) didn't come along until the B744s arrived, the main Australia-UK route with the B742s was SYD-SIN-BAH-LHR, I can't remember if B742s served BKK, the B707s certainly did. QF have served BKK en-route to Europe and the UK since the late 1940s when up to 12 stops were the norm.

SIN has always been a more important port for QF than BKK. Partly because QF was on the route very early, in conjunction with IA (Imperial Airways) since the mid 1930s, SIN was the change over point between QF & IA for the route from Australia to the UK. QF have flown the whole way to the UK, in their own right since the late 1940s. As well as this there is an enormous amount of trade in goods & services between Australia & SIN, which encourages traffic. So when it was decided to cut LHR services it wasn't a strange call to decide to continue SIN and cut BKK & HKG.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 9, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6701 times:

Oh I see. Sorry I forgot.

But why did they use QF1/2 as flight numbers?


User currently offlineshnoob940 From Australia, joined Sep 2008, 185 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6578 times:

Man that sucks, I was going to fly SYD-HKG-LHR sometime soon.. What flights will get QF1 and 2 now?


A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A388 733 734 735 737 738 739 743 744 762 763 773 788 E170 E190 Q400
User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6547 times:

SYD-SIN-LHR. Current QF31/32.

User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2066 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6331 times:

Quoting thegeek (Reply 7):
I don't think there was even a code share. Basically BKK-LHR would go out minus people who are heading to BKK from SYD, only adding code share BA LHR-BKK pax, which impedes loads and profit. Similar problem with HKG-LHR, but less severe.

The BKK flight was part of the JSA with BA throughout the journey, it was the HKG flight that was excluded.

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
Very sad to learn that HKG-LHR, BKK-LHR will go soon. Will they ever return after years when they have more aircraft?

Lots of reasons for these flights going, and many threads discuss what people believe QF could have done differently over the years. Part of the issue was that QF was trying to serve markets through different stopover points. It has tried to use SIN as a hub for many years, and possibly the most successful incarnation of this was when under the JSA BA operated LHR-SIN-BNE and LHR-SIN-PER, whilst QF operated MEL-SIN-LHR and SYD-SIN-FRA. Part of the problem though was how many flights were routing to LHR. Only FRA had daily service in Europe. When QF wanted to operate daily SYD-SIN-CDG, the bilateral with France prevented it. When it served FCO, the routing was MEL-BKK-FCO, so the only connections came via SYD flights.

The new full-service Asian subsiduary will allow QF Group to offer onward connections from a mid-point hub (I'd favour SIN given the presence of not only QF but BA and AY). Perhaps service to European and Indian destinations will come from there, with connections to the main Australian ports that way.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6137 times:

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 12):
The BKK flight was part of the JSA with BA throughout the journey, it was the HKG flight that was excluded.

That only affects who collects the profit/loss on the flight, not the actual profitability of the flight.


User currently offlinetrb10 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2004, 179 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5860 times:

When are the LHR-BKK and LHR-HKG routes ending?

User currently offlineFlyingsottsman From Australia, joined Oct 2010, 507 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5751 times:

I dont think you will see Qantas come back to those routes they have dropped, the compitition to Australia is huge, if some sort of service does return and with Australian metal on it, it will be with JQ. Qantas has become a small mino now and cant compete with the ME carriers and the South East Asian carriers flying to Australia.

User currently onlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 904 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 5696 times:

Quoting thegeek (Reply 7):
I think the only way these flights will be back is a change in the CEO and therefore a possible change in strategy.

I know many like to place the woes of QF at the feet of Allan Joyce, but the simple reality is the QF strategy is a response to market forces at play.

I think it is fair to say one of the reasons QF International is not profitable is because of the capacity being placed into the market place by QF's main competitors.

If we look at EK alone their growth is just phenomenal. The investment in product (aircraft) is just something the likes of the QF's in this world can't keep up with.

I think part of the QF strategy is a recognition of this fact and until such time the market place stabilises or QF can successfully re-position itself with their Asian base the strategy will remain intact.

On this point there is still a lot of unknowns with the strategy and from I can work out QF international is going to need investment in aircraft around the 2015 mark.

[Edited 2011-10-09 04:44:54]

User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5167 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 5632 times:

Quoting travelhound (Reply 16):
I know many like to place the woes of QF at the feet of Allan Joyce, but the simple reality is the QF strategy is a response to market forces at play.

It's often not acknowledge enough on here that both SQ and EK pax numbers Aus-UK are GOING DOWN as well. This is a market wide phenomenon.

Unfortunately I havn't the time to find the sources for that right now, but I think that SQ are yoy -1%. For EK I can't think of such concrete percentages, but in the article in the Manchester Evening News about EK's growth at MAN their UK General Manager (or whatever the official title of the position) said that EK's passenger numbers had dropped yoy from the UK to Australia, even though passengers numbers at MAN were up 50% overall.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2947 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5203 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
When QF takes more A380s will they bring back HKG-LHR and put them on this route? They can be the first to put the A380 on the route.

The final 6 A380s will be taking over the final few B744 routes, so there will be no room for any VLA expansion unless QF were to ever decide to order some more (and if they did they'd be A389's -- OT but anybody else think that their final 6 could be A389's assuming it happens?)

Quoting thegeek (Reply 7):
Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
Thought BKK-LHR was QF's first ever route to LHR. Why didn't it perform well?

Probably a lack of feed

Hmm, I don't think that was the case. The BA/QF combo that operated within half an hour of each flying around 700 seats SYD-BKK-LHR each night was always pretty busy. I think it's more to do with a desire to consolidate operations at a hub that is going to bring more reliable business feed -- this flight was probably doing perfectly well, but QF/BA found a way to make more money consolidating at their SIN hub (which they really should have done years ago anyway IMHO).

Quoting thegeek (Reply 7):
Similar problem with HKG-LHR, but less severe.

See HKG-LHR probably was performing badly. QF had little chance of picking up local traffic in the face of fierce competition from their partner airlines on the route, so had to rely heavily on through pax from MEL with some very limited connecting traffic from BNE etc (which was hampered for a long time by terribly timed flights). The flight was also the primary MEL-HKG service, so (going by their new schedules) QF have 250 people each day just flying between MEL and HKG (you refer to this issue) which puts a drain on LHR seats and loads beyond HK

Quoting trb10 (Reply 14):
When are the LHR-BKK and LHR-HKG routes ending?

Final flights leave Australia on March 23rd 2012, leave LHR on the 25th... QF31 becomes QF1 on the 25th as well...

Quoting travelhound (Reply 16):
The investment in product (aircraft) is just something the likes of the QF's in this world can't keep up with.

Not entirely true IMO. QF has invested heavily in their A380s, are working on refitting the 744s at the moment and have 50 787s come over the next 9-10 years... Sure QF doesn't have a 10 year aircraft cycle, but taking into account the scale and needs of each carrier's international operations I'd say they're on par.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 17):
It's often not acknowledge enough on here that both SQ and EK pax numbers Aus-UK are GOING DOWN as well. This is a market wide phenomenon.

The issue being that it affects QF much harder than SQ and EK. They still have their feed from the rest of the world to minimise the impact while QF gets hit with the entire reduction...


User currently offlinezbbylw From Canada, joined Nov 2006, 1981 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4441 times:

It's a shame that the Aussie government does not stand up for airlines inside it's own country. They should limit EK to a daily flight from SYD and maybe MEL. The fact of the matter is hardly anyone going on EK is O&D to Dubai they all carry on. Besides airport workers, the only Aussies that EK employ are all expats that don't do much for Australia. Regular airlines can't compete with airlines that are dependent on the low tax/oil subsidized airlines in the middle east. It's time countries start following both Germany and Canada and stand up for their own tax payers.


Keep the shinny side up!
User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2066 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4348 times:

Quoting thegeek (Reply 13):
Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 12):
The BKK flight was part of the JSA with BA throughout the journey, it was the HKG flight that was excluded.

That only affects who collects the profit/loss on the flight, not the actual profitability of the flight.

I'm not getting your point. Your original post that I replied to implied that BA and QF did not codeshare on the LHR-BKK-SYD route. Now you are talking about profitability or not of individual flights

Under the JSA at present the following routes are pooled for costs/profits, whether it is BA or QF that operates the flight: -

FRA-SIN-SYD (QF)
LHR-SIN-SYD (QF)
LHR-SIN-MEL (QF)
LHR-SIN-SYD (BA)
LHR-BKK-SYD (BA)

Someone with more knowledge could tell us if BA's LHR-SIN terminator and some of QF's terminators into SIN are also covered by the JSA, but I know that routings via HKG were excluded.

From the Summer 2012 (Northern Hemisphere) timetable the QF SYD-BKK and BA LHR-BKK terminators stop being part of the JSA and neither carrier will codeshare on the flights to/from BKK. The JSA becomes restricted to the flights operating to/from/through SIN, which is why I think that QF's full service Asian carrier will be at SIN, because that is where it could add most value to the remaining flights.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4047 times:

But they have A380 options. I suppose they will order more or exercise them right?

User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5602 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3941 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 21):
But they have A380 options. I suppose they will order more or exercise them right?

QFs original order was for 12 aircraft with 12 options. 8 of those options have been exercised and the first two are due in 13/14, the other 6 have been deferred for 5 years. So I wouldn't expect the last 4 options to be exercised much before the deferred aircraft are due, unless those aircraft are brought forward again.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently onlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 904 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3759 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 18):
QF has invested heavily in their A380s, are working on refitting the 744s at the moment and have 50 787s come over the next 9-10 years

QF currently have 21 operational 744's and 10 A380"S. That's a total of 31 VLA's.

They also have 26 767's

Now with 12 of the 744's being retired in the 2012-2015 and four additional A380's being added to the fleet, this represents a decrease in the VLA fleet by 8 aircraft.

From what I can remember the entire 767 fleet will be retired by 2015. The new 787's coming into the fleet will be juggled with the capacity needs of JQ. Now with 15 788's coming before 2015 and the 789's starting deliveries in 2014, I just can't see QF having enough 787's to replace the entire 767 fleet, add new capacity to JQ and supplement long haul flights traditionally flown by VLA's.

Either we are going to see a major reduction in the QF international operations or there is more to this equation. My guess is "more to this equation"


User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3689 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 18):
Hmm, I don't think that was the case. The BA/QF combo that operated within half an hour of each flying around 700 seats SYD-BKK-LHR each night was always pretty busy. I think it's more to do with a desire to consolidate operations at a hub that is going to bring more reliable business feed -- this flight was probably doing perfectly well, but QF/BA found a way to make more money consolidating at their SIN hub (which they really should have done years ago anyway IMHO).

Are you saying the flight was doing well and they canned it anyway?

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 20):
I'm not getting your point. Your original post that I replied to implied that BA and QF did not codeshare on the LHR-BKK-SYD route. Now you are talking about profitability or not of individual flights

The flights that IIRC aren't code share are the JQ MEL-BKK and QF BKK-LHR. So if you want to fly MEL-BKK-LHR on QF group airlines you need to take your chances.

BA and QF have code shared on via SYD-BKK-LHR for as long as I can remember. Both flights rely on getting a few code share pax for BKK bound so that each airline's tag flight doesn't have empty seats. Not sure how this worked out, but I imagine not well given that the flights are going.


25 Post contains images LV : I'm hoping some of those will be used to open up SYD-LAS. The Aussies seem to love Vegas.
26 RyanairGuru : load factor and yield are two very different things... The 767s will be here until 2019, but given that SYD-HNL is the only long haul 767 flight left
27 tullamarine : Were Vegas to ever happen, it would be JQ only. Not enough business traffic and limited connections means it is tourist route only so JQ would be the
28 qfa787380 : I'm expecting the final 6 388 deferrals to be eventually cancelled and the QF 380 fleet will not increase from 14. Maybe they will see the light 1 da
29 qf002 : BA and QF are both codesharing on each others BKK flights from next March when the change occurs (eg the new QF3501/2). I'm not 100% sure, but I thin
30 gemuser : That's your opinion. I disagree. I'm expecting the A380s to be brought forward again when the financial markets improve sufficiently that QF can rais
31 thegeek : I agree that at least some of them will be eventually delivered. In addition to SYD-DFW, by the end of this decade even the 744ERs will be starting t
32 qfa787380 : I hope you are right but as that would mean some expansion of QF. I'm just a bit negative these days about all things QF I'm afraid.
33 n729pa : And with the passing of these flights, the Qantas 747 operations at LHR will end after 41 years. I think SYD-SIN-LHR (via umpteen stops along the way
34 jfk777 : There is truth to this but this has been done by Singapore, Thai, Cathay and Malaysia Air for years. Emirates and Qatar have just taken it to another
35 RyanairGuru : ... only fly to MEL, so not to much of an issue. EY are #2 MidEast here. Go back to the early 90s and the rhetoric was the same about state-owned, lo
36 tullamarine : Partly true but these routes are fairly low yielding VFR routes. What has killed QF has been its inability to defend European services and the delusi
37 weebie : Because that policy would hurt our tourism industry which employs 1 million people and generates billions of dollars of revenue.
38 weebie : Qantas is a good product. There is nothing wrong with the airline the problems they are facing are more related to Australia itself rather than the Ai
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