Dfw-man From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 215 posts, RR: 0 Posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 1741 times:
think about how airtravel has changed within the past 50 years?when i ask this question think of how the airports will be (i.e)atlanta which i think will out grow its boundaries by 2040 will there be any turbo prop aircrafts how will the newly built airports be made what airports existing now will be redone or just totally demolished and built anew,how many operations will the busisest airports have how many estimated passengers.will the 727 be gone by then .the numbers at todays airports are staggering as is but 40 years from now the numbers that are here today will be small in comparison.
DL 604 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 1, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 1649 times:
I think by 2040 the only 727 you'll see will be in a MUSEUM!
I don't think we can really say what airports will be like in 2040, but we can guess.
I'd say by then there will be few turboprops, due to the fact that in the present turboprops are being replaced by more efficient jets. Maybe a 4-seater cessna-sized jet aircraft will be the "family vehicle"
You say that future nubers will be staggering, well, it depends. If the FAA gets up and does something about the clogged airways and taxiways, maybe the numbers of delays will be lower. If not, the nubers will continue to increae, until people will choose the train over the airplane, and the Jet Age will end. Maybe. Or, maybe this guy who's developed the flying car will finally recieve some orders.
But who's to say?
I think by then we will have much more efficient ways of air travel, both quicker and more reliable. Not to knock modern aircraft, but an aerospace craft might be the way to got for long, long flights, say New York to Sydney.
But, for domestic flights, or flights under 5 hours, let's stick with airliners.
I say the future of air travel will be aerospace travel, and airports will no longer need lot's of runway length. At least that's according to Discovery, in which they say all future air/aerospace liners will land like a Harrier Jet.
I doubt it.
What airline can affort THAT kind of jet?
And yes, Atlanta will have gone WAY out of bounds.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11950 posts, RR: 37 Reply 2, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 1630 times:
I think this is a fascinating question and I do agree that it's difficult to predict. We can, however, get some idea of trends by looking at manufacturers global market forecasts and by trying to make a calculation as to passenger numbers, based on them.
There is a formula you can use. Say, for example, ATL now handles 80m ppa (I don't know the exact figure, but that's a neat round number.) If you want to predict the growth at a particular rate over a particular period, say, 5% pa over 40 years, the formula is :
1.05 (to the power of) 40, and the answer to that, (which is 7.03!) multiplied by 40, is 563m. I know that sounds absurd and given space constraints, growth may be considerably less, but even at 2%, you'd be looking at 176m ppa. This does suggest a need for much larger aircraft, but I really don't see flying cars!
(By the way, if you want to try out that formula on your calculator, go to the Accessories page of your opening screen and pick calculator and select the Scientific calculator. Use the x^y key for "to the power of" and play around with a few airports. For example, my own home airport, Dublin, if it maintains a growth rate of 7%, from a current 11m, will be handling 164m. Roll on 2040, assuming I'm still around then!)
Doug From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 825 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1624 times:
a good question to ask there are a lot of ways to try and start and answer to this topic one thing is for sure the numbers will be mind boggling atlanta will probably need to build another airport by then or annex everything in its circumfrence ohare should not be constrained to slots or at least let the increase of slots co inside with the demand for travel and i hope there are no more commuter aircraft or at least maybe they should have there own airport facilities here in miami it will be interseting to see what has happen by that time with only 4 runways it would be nice if mia and ft lauderdale could merge and have one huge airport built in between the metro area like maybe dfw but that is wishful thinking and the enviornmentalist will kill that plan as they have done before.the demand for air travel will always be there it might fluctuate but it will always be constant.
Hmmmm... From Canada, joined May 1999, 2088 posts, RR: 5 Reply 4, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1624 times:
I predict just more of the same. As I said in another post, little has changed in the last 10, even 20 years. The planes will still be subsonic, they will still cruise at 35,000 feet, they will still be cylindrical in shape, they will still have wings, and they will have anywhere from two to four engines, and the engines will still burn fossil fuels. The fossil fuel will just cost more. This won't present a problem. You will just pay more. The engines will still make noise, of course, just a little less. However, neighbors will still complain.
Planes will still crash, just not as frequently, but with the increased numbers, it won't appear that way. In 40 years, there will be one crash per 1.4 hours. The public will not be alarmed. At that rate of frequency, it will no longer be considered news, and so the media will stop reporting them. Ignorance is bliss.
There will still be flight attendants in 40 years, but they won't be called that. They will be called inflight service representatives. They will be older, fatter, not as pretty, more pregnant, a but more mouthy, and some of them will be handicapped, even paraplegic. In 40 years, dismissing anyone, for anything, will be a violation of fundamental human rights.
The pilots, themselves, might just as easily be handicapped, because they won't be required to do anything other than look as if they are monitoring something, anything. They won't be doing much flying. Like Homer Simpson in a nuclear power plant, they will merely be stationary engineers. We won't need the pilots. We don't need them now on many planes flying many routes. But focus groups indicate that the public likes to see people in the cockpit. Some people are funny that way. So by 2040, it'll just be a good marketing gimmick. There will still be a cockpit, of course, but only because we will need a closet in which to put them.
Planes won't be much bigger than they are today. In 40 years, the biggest ones will carry about 1000 passengers on two levels. The smallest ones will carry 10. The small ones will be called commuter jets. They will have two engines, two stationary engineers, and one inflight service representative. However, Airbus will talk about the world market for a super jumbo to carry 1200 passengers. Boeing will claim that there's no demand for such a big plane and will shelve its plans, opting instead to stretch the current model.
In 40 years, even the biggest planes will still have two aisles, three at most. There will be no swimming pools, no casinos, no discos, and no grand ballrooms, not even a diningroom. Everybody will still eat off a tray. The food will not levitate on tractor beams, nor will it float around in weightlessness. For no better reason than there will be no space plane to take us from L.A. to New York just as there will be no family space car to take us to the mall. They predicted the space car 50 years ago. Fifty years from now, they will predict it again. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
AC_A340 From Canada, joined Sep 1999, 2251 posts, RR: 2 Reply 5, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 1612 times:
It will be absolute chaos. The skies will become so crowded, and airports will not beable to handle all the planes and people. I think we're gonna see more stuff like what happened on Jan. 1 witha ll the NW planes on the taxiway.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11950 posts, RR: 37 Reply 7, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1602 times:
. . . . and don't forget the brand new, totally redesigned 737-15,16, and 1700, a new, fresh design, seating from 450 to 600 people, new cockpit, new wings, same fuselage. "passengers in row 90 to 105, please step onto the moving walkway now!"
Boeing 1967-2042 - CELEBRATING 75 YEARS OF THE 737
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11950 posts, RR: 37 Reply 8, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1599 times:
HEADLINE 2040 -
SHOCK AS NORTHWEST CREWMEMBER SMILES AT CUSTOMER!
A Northwest spokesman has said that an investigation has begun into whether a customer may have mistook a smile by one of its crew, on an A315 airliner, en route from Minneapolis to somewhere else. The passenger said he had definitely detected signs of courtesy during the flight on the 30 seat aircraft and decided to report her to the supervisor.
Said the spokesman, "this is the exactly the sort of attitude we have to stamp out. We just cannot have individual staff members spoiling our hard won reputation like this, going around irresponsibly helping customers. We needed to act before word got out and the individual concerned has been identified and will spend a while flying on our other services; we're confident that she'll be snarling like everyone else. However, we believe that the customer had a few drinks taken, so it might have been just an illusion."
DL 604 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (13 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1595 times:
OK, now I don't think it'll be THAT bad!
Of course many airlines will be courteous to customers. Take Midwest Express for example. And c'mon, the pilot's won't just SIT there, they'll have their jobs to do, but they won't do as much then as they do today. I imaging a voice activated engine ignition system. Stowaways will be out of the picture beacuse everybody will have to do the James Bond thing and need to place their hand on a screen and their eye on a lasrer for DNA identification. Talk about prevention!
I can name a few airlines, of which are not made yet, that will be exactly the opposite of what is predicted. Fly on TPA, it'll take you back to the good 'ol days of 1999, same for Academy or Trans Caribbean.
Boy, if air travel is THAT bad in 2040, God help us all, because we'll by then hate aviation!