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New Frontier/Republic Part 28  
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 22341 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

This is a continuation thread of part 27 which can be found here: New Frontier/Republic Part 27.

Please feel free to join the discussion in this new thread.


Rgds

SA7700


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
277 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 22324 times:
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I see the other thread just got locked - although my post is there it is threatened with deletion - so I'll repost it here:

Quote:
Quoting mcg (Reply 250):
Frontier needs a leader, I hope the COO turns out to be a good one.

Arguably, yes, although I'd stress it is a secondary position, and a number of the naysayers - on the fixed fee side - are dismissing the role as "just a puppet of BB." Well - duh!

I think the most important thing, in terms of perception, is the separation of Frontier from Republic (of which the COO position is integral but secondary).

Perception has been a great problem all along. SM had just led the troops through an extraordinary battle - Chapter 11 - and they were fired up, ready to take on the world - as a stand-alone airline. Many felt slapped in the face that they were not to be stand--alone.

Even worse - that they were to be a subsidiary of a "regional" master and not based at DEN.

That perception was much wider than just at Frontier. BB is "just a regional" CEO, it was said, what does he know about running a real airline?

There were other perceptions that didn't help - the CW that DEN could not support three hubbing airlines and the over-riding perception that against Southwest, Frontier cannot win. Certainly, the Denver Post subscribed to this - "DIA planning for Frontier's departure" - and who knows how much damage that did?

It is interesting to see Ms. Day, at DIA, come out - at last - with a spirited defense of the three airline hub.

How do these perceptions change the financial reality, I hear you cry? Could they have changed it? I dunno - but they didn't help.

Did BB make mistakes? Sure did, and the greatest of those may be not understanding this subjective territory, but he was coming from a position of strength and rationality.

The move away from DEN compounded this and SM's resignation was pretty much the last straw - and I'm not just talking about staff morale, but about general perception. I criticized SM for his timing, here, and was pretty much accused of heresy to the Conventional Wisdom.

Nor was it just at DEN. I was quite shocked at the many in Milwaukee reacted to Frontier. RAH was perceived as the Midwest Killer, and Airtran somehow seen as the White Knight, riding in to help MKE. I stopped reading the Milwaukee press.

On the fixed fee side, many perceived the acquisition to be their way out of "just flying regionals" and became extremely bitter when that door seemed to be closing, the war between the two pilots groups has been sophomoric and probably destructive.

At least part of the present IBT action is based on that perception - that the Frontier pilots think their crap doesn't stink and they have to be brought down a peg or two, brought into line.

The IBT does not object to the idea of give-backs in return for shares - it has just negotiated that for the f/a's. It's the (they think) inherent concept of the FAPA people being "special" that drives them crazy.

The IBT action has been, at least in the short term, destructive, and has the potential to delay the separation. Hopefully, BB's wily financial brain may find ways around it.

And yet there is a wide school of (fixed fee) thought that believes it isn't destructive, presumably in defense of their union, and that the action didn't drive the $70 million away. Well, talk to the market.

Could the hybrid have worked? We'll never know. If oil had stayed at the price it was at the time the bid was made, then, at least theoretically, yes.

And yet - and yet - for all the many negatives, Frontier is largely a smooth running airline operationally, #1 at DEN for on time last month. The Airbus fleet is profitable at DEN and the tough, really tough, decisions have been taken at MKE.

The route map is developing beautifully - I think - and the fleet will eventually be composed of larger aircraft, not smaller. - "real" aircraft - LOL.

Those who ignore the past are condemned to repeat it, and Frontier has not been able to find its consistently profitable way in the world since about 2003.

Winter, always historically Frontier's weakest time, may be turned around and ultimately, if it is part of Frontier's future to be a very much bigger version of USA#000 with a huge - majority - hunk of scheduled service and a very much larger fleet, I really can't see the problem with that, except for airline elitists. It is certainly preferable to me than the decision Airtran made - to dump its future into Southwest's lap.

I've said I don't know if BB can pull this off - it's a tough ask in this economic climate - but I'm not betting against him.

I can't think why anyone would bet against him. Well, I can think why, but I prefer not to go there. .

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 22122 times:
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Just to give a clearer understanding of the Apple Vacations contract, I've always used DEN-LIR as an example of the "in conjunction" routes, but there are more - IND-CUN, for example, and SLC-CUN, as are several (all?) of the DEN-Mexico routes.

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/ind-indianapolis/

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/slc-salt_lake_city/

Many of these are long standing and they are routes for which Frontier holds a scheduled authority.

Nor are these unique to Frontier. Airtran holds a MKE-CUN scheduled authority but it is shown on the Apple Vacations charter roster as well - along with other routes for which Airtran does not have an authority, and thus does not offer as scheduled:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/mke-milwaukee/

Same with Sun Country at MSP:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/msp-minneapolis/

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2766 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 22021 times:

It's been a quite journey with F9 these last couple of years with BB, but then, it's been quite a journey throughout with F9 since it's beginning.

After reading all of the pros and cons of RAH and BB in the latter part of the last thread - it seems that the cons are becoming more prevalent as of late. With F9 loosing all the $$$ that they did last quarter surely that gives them plenty of ammo. It even may start converting a lot of those who are pro into cons.

I personally have to give a lot of credit to BB for all of the things he has achieved, and recognize the fact that really nobody has had to do what he's attempting to do - taking what no one can argue is a successful fixed-fee operation, albeit an operation in an industry with a current drawback that many may consider as having a limited future, and tackling this drawback with some outside-the-box-thinking in acquiring two (in varying degrees) struggling established branded airlines as a solution of the future. My biggest credit of BB is that he at least saving many, many jobs. Without RAH, it's anyone's guess where most of these new RAH employees would be now. And some can say WN here, but WN's intention was to shut F9 down. Conclude for yourselves where many of those F9 currently employed would be now with that scenario. And those in Milwaukee? We can discuss and debate this here, but my gut feeling concludes that at least for now that they are currently better off with RAH. Of course, I'm sure there will be those in disagreement, and I'll listen.

But I think that I've also been basically one of those who had been a quiet, early-on "con" of BB and a lot of his actions (although some here may have recognized this), continually keeping my fingers crossed that all will work out, most importantly for all of the employees who probably go paycheck to paycheck to earn themselves and their families as best they can some sort of quality lifestyle (whatever that can mean to anyone).

There are a number of things that BB did with branded that felt somewhat counter-intuitive to me at the time he did them. These will be avoided for now, since these things have already been discussed and debated ad-nauseam here in the last 27 threads, and I read and respect everyone's posting and opinion, and in some instances minds have been changed, and in others not. And generally it's not one specific instance, but rather the many instances, that in sum can add up to branded loosing $$$, and to the degree of the loss.

Now at this point (and also with the benefit of hindsight), RAH is intending to spin-off F9 (with supposedly YX merged in) into a its own separate entity, so to speak. Speculation has been that this had been the plan all along, and it per se strikes as a good idea. But with the latter, I have to question if even that in itself, could have been done differently? Of course, I'm not BB or the RAH board, and don't have the mounds of information that is available in-company. I'm not even that familiar with the whole "Wall Street process" in which companies with shares operate on such level. But questions such as - was it necessary to bring F9 (and to whatever extent was left of YX) into the RAH fold to begin with, and now have problems with the SLI, SLA, unions, and all of those other 'initials" entities that they are having problems with? BB created a 'fence' around F9, but now is this fence strong enough? Could a much better, stronger, more well defined fence have been made? Could a merged F9/YX been able on its own to have had its own publicly traded stock from the outset of bankruptcy, with RAH being the sole owners? I know the idea was to remake and grow these 'divisions' into profitability, and then spin-off and sell something appealing to investors, but could this whole thing have been structured differently without first bringing F9/YX into RAH, creating all sorts of problems while in this fold (I don't deny there may be some benefits as well) and then create the separation? Starting with separation maybe could have seemed more sensible if separation was the intention all along. So I guess my thoughts now are - did maybe BB and the RAH board maybe miss something along the way here in terms of how they proceeded in this aspect, and could have there been a better way? And would a lot of the many problems encountered not have been problems?

I don't claim to know at all the answers to the above. But this is now something else that looking back (hindsight is great you gotta admit) make me wonder that if (a big IF) better paths were maybe available, could it be because they were either unknown for lack of due diligence, or because it's possible bad decisions were made here? Or was how RAH and BB proceeded basically the only way that was available to them immediately per bankruptcy/post-bankruptcy?

And this is solely my opinion, but observing BB, I sometimes wonder (well actually, more than wonder ) if he can too be penny-wise and pound-foolish? I'll listen.....  

[Edited 2011-10-20 17:18:42]

User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3672 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 21710 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
RAH is intending to spin-off F9 (with supposedly YX merged in) into a its own separate entity,

I don't see any outside investor wanting a spun-off F9 if RAH or BB are still in control.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7664 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 21607 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
the CW that DEN could not support three hubbing airlines

The CW is right. None of the three is making money. Some people would argue WN is, but I seriously doubt it.

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
the war between the two pilots groups has been sophomoric and probably destructive.

I think it is pretty clear that BB orchestrated that fight. He knew that signing a deal with F9's pilots days before the union was eliminated would create this kind of fight. He did it on purpose. I actually would call it a master stroke. I've said that BB is good at a few things and one of them is keeping labor fighting with each other instead of management. So, from a shareholder perspective it was very well done. It's very bad for morale and the employees, but again that's the balance of managing a low margin business. I don't fault him for that. I fault him for his stewardship of the revenue producing side of F9. He is firmly in control of the cost side.

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
I can't think why anyone would bet against him. Well, I can think why, but I prefer not to go there. .
Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 4):
I don't see any outside investor wanting a spun-off F9 if RAH or BB are still in control.

The stock price shows that Wall Street is betting against him. They are doing that based on earnings and his stated plan for the future. It will be interesting to see what happens with Wall Street if he makes a U-turn and attempts to fundamentally change F9 as an airline into something else. I personally believe it won't work without a new credible management team as I have stated.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6825 posts, RR: 32
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 21478 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
what he's attempting to do - taking what no one can argue is a successful fixed-fee operation, albeit an operation in an industry with a current drawback that many may consider as having a limited future, and tackling this drawback with some outside-the-box-thinking in acquiring two (in varying degrees) struggling established branded airlines as a solution of the future.
Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
Now at this point (and also with the benefit of hindsight), RAH is intending to spin-off F9 (with supposedly YX merged in) into a its own separate entity, so to speak. Speculation has been that this had been the plan all along, and it per se strikes as a good idea.

And yet these two statements are contradictory -- the plan was to diversify RAH away from the fixed-fee business, but the plan all along was to spin off the branded business and return to fixed-fee? Huh?

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
Could a merged F9/YX been able on its own to have had its own publicly traded stock from the outset of bankruptcy, with RAH being the sole owners?

No; how can a stock be publicly traded with only one owner? There are certainly shares of Frontier Airlines Holdings which exist today, but Republic is the sole owner of those shares. Even privately-owned companies often have shares -- Facebook is a good example of this.

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
I was quite shocked at the many in Milwaukee reacted to Frontier. RAH was perceived as the Midwest Killer, and Airtran somehow seen as the White Knight, riding in to help MKE. I stopped reading the Milwaukee press.

Why was that a shock at all? BB and his team were at the helm when the old Midwest Airlines was shut down and its flight crews were let go, and he and his team made the decision to drop the Midwest brand as well. Why would the reaction to that in Milwaukee be positive?

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
The move away from DEN compounded this and SM's resignation was pretty much the last straw - and I'm not just talking about staff morale, but about general perception. I criticized SM for his timing, here, and was pretty much accused of heresy to the Conventional Wisdom.

Loyalty is a two-way street. If SM didn't feel that he was getting the right consideration and respect from BB, then he owed it to himself and his career to step aside. BB made the decision to run the branded operation from IND, and that may not have been what SM signed up for when he agreed to stay on originally. Or he may have chafed at having decisions overridden from IND.

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
On the fixed fee side, many perceived the acquisition to be their way out of "just flying regionals" and became extremely bitter when that door seemed to be closing, the war between the two pilots groups has been sophomoric and probably destructive.

At least part of the present IBT action is based on that perception - that the Frontier pilots think their crap doesn't stink and they have to be brought down a peg or two, brought into line.

And yet BB sought to take advantage of the division between the pilot groups in negotiating the concessionary agreement with FAPA. He could have worked to try to smooth things over between the groups, but he took the route of extracting cost savings. And the IBT was already angry with BB over the decision to "deactivate" one seat on the E190's -- so why should there be any great surprise over their decision to throw a monkey wrench into his scheme?

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
It's the (they think) inherent concept of the FAPA people being "special" that drives them crazy.

It's not that FAPA is "special." They (the IBT) have a contract stating that all pilots employed by RAH subsidiaries must be on the same seniority list, and the Frontier pilots along with BB are trying to subvert that requirement in their contract. And a 10-year captain at F9 makes over 50% more than a 10-year E190 captain at YX/S5/RP, so the financial motive is obvious.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 4):
I don't see any outside investor wanting a spun-off F9 if RAH or BB are still in control.

At least, not unless/until the branded operation is back to solid, consistent profitability.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 21408 times:
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Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 4):
I don't see any outside investor wanting a spun-off F9 if RAH or BB are still in control.

Investors come in all shapes and sizes and for all sorts of different reasons.

As one example, with full access to the books TPG put hundreds of millions into Midwest, and continued to do so, which, it is now clear, was not, seemingly, the best investment.

And I can't predict the future, but I assume that, as of now, RAH and BB will remain in control.

mariner

[Edited 2011-10-21 10:31:36]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7664 posts, RR: 15
Reply 8, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 21310 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 6):
And yet these two statements are contradictory -- the plan was to diversify RAH away from the fixed-fee business, but the plan all along was to spin off the branded business and return to fixed-fee? Huh?

Yes, I have seen the same logic posted here before. It makes no sense. I would say there were two possible strategies at play.

1) The stated strategy which was to diversify the company away from fixed fee and that is quite possibly true, although it has failed miserably because branded is a sink hole endangering the part of the business it was meant to protect.
2) The intention was to help F9 and YX survive as potential customers for RJs under CPA. So, the plan would be to buy them, make them profitable, sign them up to long term CPA, and then sell or float the companies thus creating customers for the core business. This is quite possible, but that strategy has also failed miserably since BB has realized that the small E-Jets can't make money at an LCC (or possibly anywhere else).

Quoting ScottB (Reply 6):
Loyalty is a two-way street. If SM didn't feel that he was getting the right consideration and respect from BB, then he owed it to himself and his career to step aside.

Sources told me that they fought loudly all the time behind closed doors and I've forgotten the date now, but there was a final blowout and they did not speak to each other after that. The bottom line is that they could not work together and I usually assume it is the higher up who sends the underling packing particularly when it is clear that it took SM time to find something else. SM is the kind of person where you can see the veins throbbing in his forehead when he was about to explode. BB clearly was not going to be bullied by SM and probably did bullying of his own. OTOH, I'm betting that if we knew what they were arguing about, most of the people who read this thread would have sided with SM in the argument that finally broke them apart.

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):
Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 4):
I don't see any outside investor wanting a spun-off F9 if RAH or BB are still in control.

Investors come in all shapes and sizes and for all sorts of different reasons.

Investors that don't intend to make a profit are just going to prolong the agony. They need an activist shareholder who will support positive change and block dumb decisions.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 21291 times:
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Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
Now at this point (and also with the benefit of hindsight), RAH is intending to spin-off F9 (with supposedly YX merged in) into a its own separate entity, so to speak. Speculation has been that this had been the plan all along, and it per se strikes as a good idea. But with the latter, I have to question if even that in itself, could have been done differently?

Just to add some clarity to that, Sean Menke and Ted Christie spent several months looking for money at the highest levels for a stand alone Frontier. Marshall Huebner, one of America's most respected attorneys, of Davis Polk and Wardwell, one of America's most respected law firms, opened a lot of doors.

And there was no money - none.

There was one offer - Perseus - which was a bit of a joke and would have left the stand alone Frontier with no effective capital. Indeed, it was so far out of left field that I have sometimes speculated if it was a set-up, to force RAH to show its hand. Which, as I predicted at the time, is what RAH did.

The only two other offers - RAH and Southwest - were both acquisitions.

I'm also very wary of the term "spin-off" - which might imply that RAH is trying to ditch Frontier. I don't see it that way at all.

I am also amused that this website seems to have become a financial website rather than a site for airline enthusiasts. Perhaps I should have stayed at the much better informed Yahoo Finance site.  

mariner

[Edited 2011-10-21 12:21:37]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6825 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 21075 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):
Perhaps I should have stayed at the much better informed Yahoo Finance site.

Yes, Yahoo! Finance's message boards have such well-informed users.   But if finance is unimportant, I suppose it's unimportant as to whether RAH lines up additional financing for Frontier or if the pilots do or don't take concessions.

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):
Sean Menke and Ted Christie spent several months looking for money at the highest levels for a stand alone Frontier. Marshall Huebner, one of America's most respected attorneys, of Davis Polk and Wardwell, one of America's most respected law firms, opened a lot of doors.

And there was no money - none.

And history might be showing why that money just wasn't there.


User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1329 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 21078 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 9):
I am also amused that this website seems to have become a financial website rather than a site for airline enthusiasts. Perhaps I should have stayed at the much better informed Yahoo Finance site.  

Its also full of brilliant CEO minds. Me, Im a simple pilot and observer. Nothing more. I have my ideas, but Im still quite content to watch what happens. It always seems interesting to me. I gave a report in a class over Frontier/Republic in November 2009, just after the Frontier deal was closed. Im preparing another for a different class next month, two years after the original. I am amazed at the difference between the two. Much has changed over that time, and the strategy is included in that. I cannot believe how many different actions have been taken by management. Many this year have been incredibly drastic. Im not sure what else I would ask of this management team honestly.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 month 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 20972 times:
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Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
Yes, Yahoo! Finance's message boards have such well-informed users.   But if finance is unimportant, I suppose it's unimportant as to whether RAH lines up additional financing for Frontier or if the pilots do or don't take concessions.

And another one putting words in my mouth.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
And history might be showing why that money just wasn't there.

Um - that was my point.   

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineazstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 629 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 20698 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
I fault him for his stewardship of the revenue producing side of F9. He is firmly in control of the cost side.

This is a critical point. Compare F9 fares to almost anyone else, including WN, and you'll find that they can frequently be more than 50% less than the competition. For example, one way to Denver "Business Select" on WN is 299.00 plus tax. F9 "Classic Plus" ranges from 99.00 to 134.00. The flights might be full, but every flight will still lose money. The other negative side of this policy is that it encourages the legacy carriers to react very strongly when F9 tries to enter a new market. MCI-MSP is an example. No legacy wants a carrier to enter a lucrative market charging 29.00 when their lowest fare might be 200.00. They will do whatever is necessary to force them out and it's happened to F9 many times.

[Edited 2011-10-22 05:26:01]

User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3672 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 20660 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
I fault him for his stewardship of the revenue producing side of F9. He is firmly in control of the cost side.

This was my point in the previous thread. BB knows the 'hard' (operations) side of the business but has failed to grasp the 'soft' (strategy) side. The CPA side didn't have to worry about marketing, revenue mangement, network planning, alliances, etc. Their customers just told them where and when to fly and that was it.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 20576 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 1):
I was quite shocked at the many in Milwaukee reacted to Frontier. RAH was perceived as the Midwest Killer, and Airtran somehow seen as the White Knight, riding in to help MKE. I stopped reading the Milwaukee press.

You need to understand that Midwest was a source of pride in Milwaukee for 25 years. Milwaukee is a medium sized city with a small town state of mind. When Airtran insisted on a hostile takeover of Midwest, the claws came out on the people of Milwaukee. Most were against the Midwest name disappearing. When Midwest was on its last gasps of oxygen, Republic came in and bought them making promises they would revitalize Midwest. Not long after that Republic bought Frontier. Everyone here saw the writing on the wall and knew that Midwest was toast and BB's promises for Midwest and MKE rang hollow. On the other hand Airtran kept their promise and built a hub in MKE. So in a nutshell that is basically what happened. Although Airtran is not on the hook to keep their promise anymore because in actuality they exist in name only. All in all, the Milwaukee media writes very little about Frontier now. Not like they use to for Midwest.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 16, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 20513 times:
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Quoting MKENut (Reply 15):
You need to understand that Midwest was a source of pride in Milwaukee for 25 years.

Oh, indeed, I understand that very clearly.

I don't understand why the pilot fury, for example, was directed at BB and not at TH who had invited Republic in. I do understand that Conventional Wisdom is a powerful thing.

Quoting MKENut (Reply 15):
When Midwest was on its last gasps of oxygen, Republic came in and bought them making promises they would revitalize Midwest. Not long after that Republic bought Frontier.

Just keeping the record straight, the bid for Frontier was announced before RAH bought Midwest.

mariner

[Edited 2011-10-22 10:42:48]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5787 posts, RR: 28
Reply 17, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 20483 times:

Quoting azstar (Reply 13):
This is a critical point. Compare F9 fares to almost anyone else, including WN, and you'll find that they can frequently be more than 50% less than the competition.

Every itinerary I've ever priced on Frontier has been higher than the competition. Every one. Having said that, I'm a small sample, but I've tried to fly them and simply can't justify it based on price. Maybe next time I can.

Interestingly, WN is often the lowest price. So I'm not sure that your example - or mine - are really all that accurate given the myriad of factors.

Quoting azstar (Reply 13):
The flights might be full, but every flight will still lose money.

I think that falls under the category of conjecture. While they have overall losses, certainly there are a number of flights that are profitable for them.

Quoting azstar (Reply 13):
The other negative side of this policy is that it encourages the legacy carriers to react very strongly when F9 tries to enter a new market. MCI-MSP is an example. No legacy wants a carrier to enter a lucrative market charging 29.00 when their lowest fare might be 200.00. They will do whatever is necessary to force them out and it's happened to F9 many times.

Again, in all fairness to Frontier, many airlines offer introductory rates when starting up a new route. I sincerely doubt that Frontier is offering consistent $29 fares on routes that other carriers' lowest fares are in the $200 range. Can it happen? Sure. Is your example in any way representative of what they are doing regularly? Doubtful. If anything, I would think that if this were a legacy, you'd see some of the same things going on. The difference is that Frontier is a weaker carrier and it'smuch easier for an established airline to throw capacity at them in an attempt to force them out. Frontier's a small carrier, and they don't have 5 hubs to support a temporary battle in a place like MCI for long. If I were Delta, I'd be willing to take them on knowing that they can't hold out forever. If this were another legacy, you might see something similar, but I doubt it'd be the full court press you see put onto Frontier.

These are just my opinions, but my own personal experiences and observations have been somewhat different than yours in a general sense.  

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 20416 times:
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I suppose what is baffling to me is the idea that Frontier should be somehow immune to the general economic temperature.

Most US airline shares are puddling around at or within coo-eee of their 52 week lows and, in a number of cases, their two year lows, which is where some were at the height of the GFC, and in some cases lower than then.

I very much doubt that United is cutting 11% January capacity at DEN because that capacity is flying profitably.

Europe is standing on the edge of a finacial abyss and BB has thrown in a fascinating tid-bit - he is close to achieving (or has achieved) the lease restructures despite having to deal with some European banks, which banks are almost paralyzed by the present Eurozone financial crisis.

It makes sense to me. I've just had to do a bit of (very tiny) business with a Eurozone country, where they were looking for "relief" from me and at the same time, a bit of (equally tiny) business with Australia - where they have been very much more generous than they needed to be.

Maybe the moral is to try and do more business with Australian banks/finance companies - it;s always been called the Lucky Country.  

I believe BB has also been able to do a deal with Embraer, which will provide some "relief' and yet still see 2 x E190 (new) coming into the fleet next month.

Mostly, I suppose, I puzzled by the idea that the $70 million going walkabout wasn't a considerable problem, especially when it is the CW that no one will lend Frontier money at the moment.

And yet BB is finding ways to replace that money. Ideal solutions? Probably not - but solutions all the same. In this financial climate, whatever works.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 20257 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 16):
Just keeping the record straight, the bid for Frontier was announced before RAH bought Midwest.

I think you are wrong... Publicly Republic announced the Midwest purchase before going after Frontier in auction.


User currently offlineTigerguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 20222 times:

Quoting MKENut (Reply 19):
Quoting mariner (Reply 16):
Just keeping the record straight, the bid for Frontier was announced before RAH bought Midwest.

I think you are wrong... Publicly Republic announced the Midwest purchase before going after Frontier in auction.

According to the RJET website, they announced their bid for Frontier on June 22, 2009. The next day, they announced their acquisition of Midwest. The YX deal closed on July 31 while the F9 deal closed on October 1.



Flying friendly for a while, but is that a widget I see in the rear-view mirror?
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 21, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 20208 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MKENut (Reply 19):
I think you are wrong... Publicly Republic announced the Midwest purchase before going after Frontier in auction.

June 22, 2009:

http://www.eturbonews.com/9954/under...blic-airways-buy-frontier-airlines

"Frontier Airlines would become a subsidiary of Republic Airways under a bankruptcy reorganization plan announced Monday afternoon."

The Journal Sentinel article refers to it in this article announcing the purchase of Midwest on June 23, 2009:

http://www.jsonline.com/business/48905032.html

"Republic Airways to buy Midwest Airlines

With the Midwest acquisition, and Republic's disclosure Monday of its plans to buy Denver-based Frontier Airlines for just under $109 million, Republic could end up owning two carriers, along with its business of flying regional routes for large airlines."


Only a day, I grant you, but Frontier was still first.

mariner

edit: Tigerguy - I guess you posted while I was composing. Thanks.

[Edited 2011-10-22 17:25:03]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 20177 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
Only a day, I grant you, but Frontier was still first.

You are right about the announcement, but Republic owned Midwest before they owned Frontier. Frontier wasn't a sure thing for Republic until Southwest backed out of the bid for Frontier and the bankruptcy court accepted the Republic bid.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 20147 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MKENut (Reply 22):
You are right about the announcement, but Republic owned Midwest before they owned Frontier. Frontier wasn't a sure thing for Republic until Southwest backed out of the bid for Frontier and the bankruptcy court accepted the Republic bid.

All true. But the statement I made was simply:

Quoting mariner (Reply 16):
Just keeping the record straight, the bid for Frontier was announced before RAH bought Midwest.


It should also be noted that BB had helped keep Midwest out of Chapter 11:

"Republic's role at Midwest has been growing since last fall, when Republic lent financially troubled Midwest $25 million.

That loan helped Midwest avoid Chapter 11 bankruptcy."


So I'm still not sure why he/Republic was seen as the villain of the piece or why that later attached to Frontier.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (3 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 19843 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
So I'm still not sure why he/Republic was seen as the villain of the piece or why that later attached to Frontier.

Because he replaced all the 717 flying with E-190s using Republic crews instead of bringing in the Midwest crews to do it. If he wanted to be the "savior of Midwest" (maybe he didn't really care or foster that image himself and it was media the media that portrayed that, I don't know) he should have hired the Midwest crews.

Instead it was Republic crews flying aircraft painted in Midwest colors and using the Midwest name. It was outsourcing to lower cost labor and that angered a lot of people especially since Republic crews weren't locals like the Midwest crews were. Also with the economy the way it was and people losing there jobs and watching them get outsourced over seas it was very easy for the general public to understand and relate to the Midwest crews since the same thing was happening to them. Finally it's a small city so I'm sure some of the passengers in MKE are friends with the ex-Midwest crews and heard how they lost their jobs to lower cost labor.

Even though the parking of the 717s wasn't RAH's decision, the replacement with RAH aircraft in Midwest colors and the furloughing of Midwest employees was RAH's decision. You don't lay off people in a smaller community like MKE, replace them with out of town lower cost labor, and then expect the town to embrace you with open arms. That just doesn't happen. Those employees spent decades building Midwest into what it was and to watch someone else pretend to be them obviously stirred up a lot of emotions. It's therefore not surprising at all to see how Republic and BB became the villain.

Honestly it should have been expected and it would have been much better if the Midwest name was put to bed early and Frontier name had been chosen as the new name as soon as the purchase was closed.


25 mcg : My experience has been that F9 is usually competitive to a little cheaper on trips to and from DEN. F9 is usually more expensive on trips that origin
26 Post contains links mariner : Well, well, I try to avoid pilot matters, and to some extent you and I agree. But I have some problems with what happened, starting with the fact tha
27 MKENut : I don't see Airtran portrayed the white knight here... Other than they opened a pilot base in MKE and hired some Midwest pilots. They also kept a pro
28 mariner : All I can go by is what i read in the Milwaukee press - and, to a much lesser extent, what I read here. mariner
29 norcal : That doesn't surprise me but BB has a face where as a company like TPG is largely unknown (and more importantly not an airline) by the public and the
30 mariner : We're just going round in circles, because I understand that, I understand all the subjectivity. I am more disturbed by the lack of objectivity on th
31 JBo : To follow up with Mariner's response, the replacing of Midwest aircraft with Republic aircraft began well before Midwest was sold to RAH. It was Uncl
32 CarsAir04 : [quote=]Well after 25 years with the company they laid me and everyone else off and brought in a bunch of less experienced lower paid crews to fly air
33 Post contains images MKENut : Well said! And that is part of what BB lead people to believe in MKE. I agree with you, but on the other hand I was trying to help you gain new insig
34 mariner : And as I have tried to point out, the people, certainly the pilots, were "lost" before BB. More than that, all the reasons for Midwest's problems exi
35 enilria : I've been saying the same thing. It couldn't be more obvious. That's why he needs to bring in a new CEO for F9 from a credible LCC or ULCC since that
36 mariner : I have only three basic responses to anything in this life - (a) yes (b) no and (c) silly. If you want to compare Frontier to AMR, my reaction would
37 sideflare75 : Pretty sure it was all but three and that is how many are left as of now.
38 FRNT787 : That is still the plan
39 Post contains links GentFromAlaska : On the lighter side, Breckenridge, CO made smarter travels top 10 list of the world's most scenic mountain towns. Girdwood, Alaska, located about 50 m
40 enilria : I thought it had been pretty clear that they were all going away to CPA, but apparently the deal on three fell apart and they will remain with F9. Yo
41 mikefrommke : You can hardly count the E170 fleet without looking at the entire Republic fleet of them. Same with the E145 and CHQ fleet of them when it comes to t
42 enilria : I disagree. It's three more types they need equipment to service at all the stations, it's station training on a bunch of types that are rarely seen,
43 FRNT787 : There was never a firm deal for the three that I am aware aware of. 14 were for DL, and they are working on shopping out the other three into CPA, or
44 mikefrommke : I never said it was optimal. But the point is they are already in the fleet and yes, they are different than the E190, but probably not enough differ
45 enilria : I wouldn't be so sure. I'm not sure the E190s are sticking around. I'm told they are deferring all future orders and we already know they are attempt
46 mikefrommke : BB and RJET have not introduced any new fleets yet. The fleets they have were based on decisions made by the carriers before they were purchased. F9
47 mcg : I think Frontier tried this strategy in the 1980's and it failed miserably. What I am referring to is the acquisition of original Frontier by People
48 azstar : I just flew on Midwest Ailines painted. E190. More than two years after the merger they still haven't repainted all of the 12 E190's they're flying fo
49 rampart : Breck used to have an airstrip. Unlike Leadville, Vail, or Steamboat, they never attracted air service (nor even sought it). Breck is a bit more conf
50 enilria : YET. Actually, the E190 was introduced. YX never had E190s on their cert as far as I know. I thought the E170 also came in under RJET. Once in Ch11 F
51 Post contains links mariner : Not to forget that when Republic acquired Midwest the airline had no - or very few - aircraft. RAH bid for Midwest in June 2009, but earlier that yea
52 Post contains links FRNT787 : That is contrary to what I hear. There are two 2 E190s introduced for sale, potentially. I believe they will take two E190s from the current order, i
53 mikefrommke : You mentioned this in another thread, but is RAH selling the US DCA slots back? I know they always had the option to do it, but I hadn't heard anythi
54 FRNT787 : It is an option for additional cash. It is one of the many things they have put on the table to raise cash, to remain at over $200 million in unrestr
55 mariner : I don't know if it is a done deal yet, but I believe BB has talked it at least twice. Nor is it just to raise money (which is does, very effectively)
56 FRNT787 : Ah good point there. Makes it an even more viable option IMO.
57 mke717spotter : As of now they still have six that will be delivered, correct?
58 FRNT787 : Yes. I am not of the opinion that they will be all delivered. In addition, 5 of the frames are on (I believe) 5 year leases.
59 loggat : BB's latest letter to employees stated that 2 will be delivered in November of this year. The rest are on an indefinite hold. He also stated that he
60 Post contains links mariner : As in this thread, the DOT has announced the terms of the upcoming DCA/LGA slots, as a result of the US/Delta deal: DOT Sets LGA/DCA Slot Reallocation
61 ScottB : I suppose anything is possible, but it is clear that DOT staff recognize Frontier's unique situation, and it seems the upcoming slot auction is so ex
62 mariner : Since that is the point I made originally, I'm not sure where you disagree with me. It does, however, have that subsidiary benefit - the separation.
63 ScottB : The AIR-21 slot exemptions are a different beast in that the eligibility requirements are written into the enabling act. And in that particular case,
64 mariner : And Frontier was invited to reapply for the slot - and believes that its status hurt them. Frontier still refers to that action as "illegal" in its f
65 Post contains images enilria : Exactly, BB's recent comments imply that they are open to the idea of shrinking or eliminating the fleet and make clear that there will be no more de
66 Post contains links mariner : And just to add some texture to that, MSN Airport believes that Southwest and Jetblue will likely win the auction and that the airport will suffer be
67 Post contains links n7371f : Bloomberg got a hold of an internal memo put out by BB...confirms some of the rumors regarding Embraer delivieres...and new stuff like taking out a la
68 Post contains links mariner : JetBlue, on the other hand, will bid "aggressively" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...t-laguardia-reagan.html?cmpid=yhoo "JetBlue to ‘Aggressi
69 mke717spotter : The slimmer seats they mention makes me think that they'll be doing away with the DirectTV as well...
70 mikefrommke : I'd be fine with that as long as they put in Wifi instead, but with how well that process has gone I don't have my hopes up.
71 ridgid727 : Although at one time F9's now parent company outbid WN. (a different scenario though)
72 Post contains images mariner : Republic didn't actually outbid Southwest, it's just that Republic had an ace of trumps. But that's old and very contentious ground. I suspect Fronti
73 mariner : With the stated intention of increasing aircraft utilization there have obviously been a few rumors - nothing specific - of more red-eyes, or red-eyes
74 JBo : This is correct, and I do remember this. As I recall, the original plan was that RW was going to fly the E190s "temporarily" until Midwest could get
75 rj777 : I got an e-mail from F9 saying there had been a change to my flight from MKE-OMA for 11-22, but the times are EXACTLY THE SAME as they were in the las
76 point2point : After I posted this, I sorta realized that maybe I had a bad choice of words here. I couldn't quite put my finger on how I wanted this reworded befor
77 mariner : I'm confused. That's part of the process that is happening now. By the time it is complete there will be clear blue (legal) sky. Of course. It was si
78 CarsAir04 : I remember some of our red eyes to the east. The Hartford flights seemed to always be full, at least on the ones I was always trying to get on! Our r
79 ScottB : The RAH pilots and the Frontier pilots are on a single list because the RAH pilots' contract requires a single integrated list among all the subsidia
80 mariner : Certainly, there is that danger, as I indicated. I'm not really keen on Frontier entering the plum (perceived "good") red-eye markets which are alrea
81 Post contains links and images mariner : I knew BB was looking at bigger aircraft, but if we are to believe Flightaware, somehow Frontier used a Boeing 767-300 for today's CUN-PHL flight for
82 Post contains links point2point : I don't think that anyone is not grateful to RAH for coming to the rescue of F9. The alternative at the time was the demise of F9. But also as questi
83 mariner : We've been over this ground before and my answer wis the same as I have given before. (i) There was no money - none - for Frontier as a standalone, f
84 MKENut : And that is what they are whittling the airline back to.... One hub in DEN. Granted, they still have MCI, OMA and MKE as focus cities. But hubs they
85 mariner : But the point is that they have MKE, OMA and MCI. Stand alone Frontier did not, and the attempts to create even a focus city didn't work. mariner
86 Post contains images wnflyguy : New F9 rumor I had 2 RAH captains jumpseat to DEN on my plane today.They said RAH pilot group voted to strike.They said they want a new contract and t
87 OzarkD9S : I can see the DCA slot sale back to US. No way in hell US wants any kind of DEN hub/hublet/focus city. They already have one called UA. Spirit: Plent
88 yellowtail : Does F9 even have international expansion on its mind anymore?
89 point2point : Maybe a silly question to ask here, but why can't they hire someone at F9 who knows how to run a branded airline, rather than have BB supposedly thin
90 mariner : I'm sorry - I find your continued statement of that very disturbing. But I'm a bit busy with the Qantas dispute right now to answer in full. mariner
91 IndyWA : This part is true at least
92 Post contains images point2point : There's no intent to disturb anyone... I think that BB has shown he really is shooting from the hip when it comes to branded. Some may not agree, but
93 mariner : Well, as I said to you before, given your previously stated attitude to BB, I think I'm just wasting my time, however, I shall respond to one point:
94 Post contains images point2point : At this point, neither do I. But the last couple of posts before mine sounded rather ominous, and even if there is a shred of truth, it could be a bi
95 mariner : If you mean post #86, the poster has WN - code for Southwest - in his user name. I smiled when I read the post because it takes little account of all
96 Post contains images point2point : Let's hope we can all smile baby.... But still, having another lead F9 for a while who knows what is doing with branded wouldn't be the worst of opti
97 IndyWA : Ok, time for me to pipe in a bit...as a employee of RAH (not F9), I say....CUT THEM LOOSE! It's been nothing but problems and drama since we bought th
98 Post contains images point2point : As RAH is a fixed-fee and F9 is branded, there really should be no reason at all for there to be any competition between the two. Again, management..
99 PlanesNTrains : Not much to berate you for. You are there, it's your opinion, and I appreciate hearing it. I think there is an assumption that if F9 had different le
100 ScottB : This isn't entirely a rumor, as BB apparently said, in his letter to RAH employees, that one of the avenues RAH was exploring to raise cash was selli
101 Post contains images mariner : I can't think why anyone would flame or berate you, or try to get you to change your mind - it is what most people want to happen. It's also what - I
102 CarsAir04 : Dont blame the F9 staff or YX staff, try looking at the RAH management and board. We had nothing to do with them taking us over. I come to work each
103 Post contains images point2point : It did have different leadership prior to take-over, and at least then it was running an operational profit. - And an independent F9 would not have b
104 alphascan : It is a proven fact that pilots, especially those who gossip while deadheading on a competitor, are the most able and fully informed airline managers
105 GentFromAlaska : Now that's stretch seating!
106 Post contains links mariner : I can disagree. I love the Q's, I think they could perform a unique role, but based on the earlier fleet review, they have 100% break even load facto
107 Post contains images GentFromAlaska : Concur, IMO the perfect flying environment for them outside of Colorado would be in Alaska, flying year around in the southeast and south-central reg
108 F9Animal : Yes, F9 is looking at International expansion. That is all I can share. Honestly, as a F9 employee, I am saddened by your views. To be honest, you fa
109 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : I'll take your word for it since I'm not intimately familiar with their quarter by quarter performance. I do, though, remember a Frontier in BK, and
110 enilria : BB has no experience leading an airline that gets its revenue from anything other than a contract and he did not want to share decision making with s
111 Post contains links mariner : There is another point to be made about the Q400's. The decision had been made to remove all of them, from the fleet. It was expected that the remain
112 FRNT787 : There's Daniel Shurz and Jim Reichart. There was a man with experience running an airline brought in. He chose to leave. And so it goes... It apparen
113 F9Animal : enilria, I have told you hundreds of times repeatedly that WN was not going to offer F9 employees any jobs. And you have been educated countless time
114 Post contains images MSYtristar : Wow...scary. There are too many unknowns right now to say either way what the future of F9 will be in the hands of RAH. Here's hoping for the best, ob
115 PlanesNTrains : Why do you assume that I am quoting an article? I was merely sharing my opinion of the Q. -Dave
116 azstar : Of all the mistakes made by RAH, the most serious, IMO, is the toxic environment they've created. Former Midwest employees blame Republic for their s
117 enilria : Shurz's background is route planning and running buses, not marketing. Here is his work history. Vice President, Network Planning at Air Canada Direc
118 ScottB : You can repeat that 500 times if you like, but that doesn't make it true. Southwest EVP Ron Ricks said the following when the Southwest bid for Front
119 FRNT787 : Yet there are men working at RAH management who have scheduled airline experience. Plus, im rather amused that everybody seems to think a "Proper man
120 PlanesNTrains : Well, it could be speaking "No one wants them." I know - not an acceptable answer. -Dave
121 GentFromAlaska : And that's the way it is suppose to be. In the Merger and Acquisition (M&A) arena. Internal controls need to be in place to weed out under perfor
122 enilria : Well, either he is incapable of running a revenue producing airline just like his predecessors at GO and FLYi, or he has squandered millions and mill
123 mariner : Once again, you are putting words in my mouth. I did not say "they are losing money." Or if I did, show me the quote. They may be losing money, but I
124 JA : Frontier is 100% sellable. It is just that Republic is going to have to finance it. The question is very simple: will Republic finance the sale of Fro
125 mariner : I don't know where this idea of RAH wanting to sell Frontier is coming from. I can only think of one reason why RAH would - a deal of money. All the
126 point2point : Okay, but I still have to wonder if the Qs had be used ex-MKE, rather than the expensive RJs, would have $55M been lost? I don't think that outside o
127 mariner : I go back to the posts by Azstar and Enilria pointing out how bad the Lynx load factors were. This was not a one time thing. There were other factors
128 RJNUT : As much as I do fall into the Pro-Q camp, I do remember hearing about such issues expecially in markets like FAR and SUX where they only had two flig
129 n7371f : That's an industry wide issue. Horizon has struggled for years with reliability of the Q, yes even though they made the decision to go all 'Q'. There
130 Post contains links mariner : Indeed. As at Scandinavian: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2007/10/28/sas-bombardier.html "Scandinavian Airlines drops Bombardier Q400 turboprops
131 Post contains images point2point : Hey, this is only a blog.... I don't think that whether I (or anyone else for that matter here) support (or not) anyone is really going to (pardon th
132 mariner : We've been having the same debate on the Qantas Grounding thread, where the CEO is detested by many of the staff - including possible death threats -
133 FRNT787 : No. 1. They announced they would go away. 2. They announced 4 would temporarily stay, as the deal had fallen through. They would actively search for
134 n7371f : ...and twice, most recently last month, Republic has leased one of the Q's to Horizon for temporary back-fill service.
135 PlanesNTrains : Well, if you are implying that by still being in service that they are making money, then why don't you stop rattling on about what a bad idea it is
136 Post contains links and images point2point : If possible, let's put this discussion over the Qs into some prospective, if we can. Bear with me and please follow me on this reasoning. These numbe
137 dbo861 : I just noticed that Frontier added a second DEN-DSM flight this Saturday on an A320, but there is no return leg. Normally they only operate one E190 o
138 kingcavalier : It's for a charter. The DEN - DSM flight is an extra section. The a/c will then operate a charter for the University of Kansas to FOE. The a/c then r
139 n7371f : More proof on industry-wide problems with the Q...here are some excerpts from the Pinnacle quarterly conference call today: Question: On the Q400 rel
140 bjorn14 : Yeah except that WF is keeping all theirs and eventually will do D+ checks.
141 mariner : They may be, but at the time the incidents caused a considerable examination of the Q's - and at Frontier. All of Frontier's Q's were sent back to Mo
142 ScottB : What relevance does the amount of Southwest's bid for Frontier and changes in it hold in relation to whether they would have hired Frontier employees
143 mariner : That it was rather more immediate than your quote suggested. I don't know what the "current trajectory" is. It isn't what it was at the time the earl
144 mcg : I think the relevant thing is that the Q's (at least 8 out of 11) could be sold for money, something RAH couldn't do with the RJ's. Thus the Q's go.
145 Post contains images point2point : I'd get BBD to have a few planes in spare if there are that many issues I would certainly have a hard time seeing the numbers of F9 employees over at
146 Post contains links and images mariner : There have been numerous studies done on it. Here's one - first hit on Google: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/regional-jets.htm "The tu
147 Post contains links mariner : All the eligible airlines have registered to be bidders in the DCA/.LGA slot auctions, including Republic/Frontier: DOT Sets LGA/DCA Slot Reallocation
148 Post contains images YXwatcherMKE : And for my I think that there are plenty of people round the MKE area that would not mind the turboprops as long as the service was still to the citi
149 Post contains links mikefrommke : October traffic numbers are out: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fro...ts-october-2011-traffic-2011-11-07 Good YOY increases in RPM and LF. Obviously
150 F9Animal : CHA CHING! Profitable, and NEOs firmed up! You heard it folks. Non believers...... Will the real Animals please stand up! To all my coworkers,,,, than
151 n7371f : $15.3 million profit without adjustments for special costs (including $10 million for the storm).
152 dbo861 : Have they firmed their C-Series order yet?
153 Post contains links and images Tigerguy : I certainly don't want to dampen your excitement, but you know you've just attracted the arguments about why your celebrations are short-sighted, sho
154 n7371f : Not a word mentioned in release. Certainly will come up during conference call on Tuesday. Doesn't look good for Bombardier with this order...
155 F9Animal : I do not know. I am happy with any profit! Mr. enilria... Remember how many times you have negatively commented on BB? Said he did not know how to ru
156 F9Animal : See above!! LOL! I totally expect it, but I know what this little airline is about. What it is capable of. And I trust the leadership to guide us bac
157 smoot4208 : I saw MCI-SAT is ending in January. Are they seasonally ending that route or is that gone for good?
158 FutureUScapt : So according to the press release, they have indicated that the branded operation will have only 5 aircraft with 76 seats or less by May 2012. Am I co
159 mke717spotter : If its gone for good then that would leave SAT with only one daily F9 flight to DEN, right? I can't imagine that UA/WN have similar frequencies.
160 FutureUScapt : It is no longer in the schedule past 03Jan, so I assume that it's gone. And while you are right that they will have just one flight to DEN that is on
161 FL787 : I don't have the answer but couldn't it just be 5 Q400s? In the press release RAH says they are operating 58 44-50 seat planes under fixed-fee flying
162 FRNT787 : I believe it was initially signed as a firm order. The plan, IMO will probably be 5 E145s. The E170s and Q400s are likely gone by May, either lease o
163 FL787 : Nevermind. Looks like I was missing the 2 spares.
164 Post contains images SurfandSnow : I agree. IIRC it was said that F9 asked the DOT to auction off the slots in smaller groups, presumably because a batch of 8 at either airport would b
165 Post contains links mikefrommke : Wall street apparently likes the results (up 20% at this posting), as do I: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:RJET
166 ScottB : The issue with ASE is not runway length; it is one-engine-out climb performance. I'm not sure anything makes MKE viable apart from Southwest pulling
167 mikefrommke : Even if WN doesn't pull down, their higher costs and even the fare rationalization we've seen already is definitely helpful to both parties.
168 smoot4208 : I saw in the OAG thread that BKG-PHX is ending; is the contract up on that?
169 enilria : True, but F9 lost money (vs. a profit last year) no matter how you calculate it despite shrinking MKE and getting labor savings. I also question whet
170 smoot4208 : It sounds like they are cutting frequencies to just about everywhere from DEN; maintaining all the destinations, just less flights. That should accou
171 mariner : I don't think it sees it as a "problem" either, but it would like more access - and, barring unusual circumstances, there is no more access at the Bi
172 enilria : I need to see the transcript. I missed some of the Q+A. They keep saying DEN is doing great, but you are right they are cutting a lot of DEN frequenc
173 mariner : Quite a lot, yes. As has been known for some time, mainline service at DEN is operating profitably, by using the old "less is more" philosophy. Howev
174 Post contains links kingcavalier : "Republic Airways Confirms Order for 80 Airbus A320neo Family Aircraft" http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20111108006624/en I thought the original
175 CarsAir04 : I know you're not a fan of F9 and always try to find the negative side of things and it probably irks you that F9 is turning around, but this is what
176 enilria : Another question came up in the Q+A and BB made it fairly clear that the "board has decided that we need to separate the business whether that be to
177 enilria : They just lost money in the best quarter of the year (even excluding all their ex-items) and made money the prior year, but please enjoy some delicio
178 mikefrommke : It was planned to end after December from the git-go. So is AUS-BKG, but I haven't heard anything either way about it. Seemed like a pretty full flig
179 mariner : Yes, it was - things change. I know that's not a popular concept among some on a.net. Not so long ago, BB said that the majority of the forward fleet
180 CarsAir04 : Even if they had made 100 million you would still find the negative. It just you and your personality. Nothing more. And its not kool aid, its being
181 Post contains links mariner : I think Frontier - branded - did extremely well. I'm not sure where the idea is coming from that Frontier (ex-items) lost money in the quarter. http:
182 CarsAir04 : Correct, and I look forward to F9 making money for a long time. Its tough to see on the layoff side due to those going away, but easy to see why it w
183 Post contains links enilria : That is the best news by far. It does appear that in a year if we are all lucky that BB will no longer be in charge of managing F9. The media is also
184 F9Animal : Who is we? And you are going to be gravely disappointed. BB has done a superb job, and he deserves a pat on the back. GOD BLESS BEDFORD!!!
185 CarsAir04 : And I look at that and like to see, and its been in other reports, an independant low-cost carrier. And I do hope it does become independent. I have
186 MSYtristar : Wow, these F9 threads have really devolved. What's the deal with the bickering, odd personal attacks, and comments that make no sense whatsoever just
187 mariner : Sorry, I disagree that it should have been done from the git-go. Without Republic and the resources provided (including the E190's) I doubt there wou
188 Post contains images CarsAir04 : not bad to disagree at all with the separation of F9 . And though it is water under the bridge, I always have to wonder back to when SM had to make t
189 Post contains images mariner : A very great deal of what is discussed here is water under the bridge. I'm not fond of post-mortems (yeh, I know, it should be post-morta) - I've nev
190 CarsAir04 : Well depending on the separation we will see what plays out. Are decisions still made at Republic, are they just looked at and given an opinion, is F
191 mikefrommke : In the call BB mentioned a 0-1% operating profit projected for Q1 2012, up from -3 - -2% projected as of the last call. As with all projections, who
192 Post contains images FRNT787 : Indeed it was. As Mariner pointed out when the deal was signed, the largess of the A319 portion could have been largely a "favor" to Airbus, a nice A
193 Post contains images mariner : I know everyone is love with the idea of separation, and some are in love with the idea of total separation. But the dickie birds have been chirping
194 FRNT787 : Im with you in this regard. Some sky between them is good. IMO though, I want some Republic influence for F9.
195 Quartz : As a shareholder with a significant portion of my net worth invested in RJET, its a great day. But what has me really excited is the future. Many fac
196 ouboy79 : Would hate to see them gobbled up. I truly enjoy flying the airline and look forward to them possibly getting into TOL to allow me to bypass DTW for
197 mke717spotter : I'm no expert on the financial aspects of running an airline, but isn't it more difficult for an airline not to be profitable during the summer months
198 Post contains images mariner : As in post #190 - that's the key. It's one thing to be profitable in the good times - summer. Being profitable in the weak times - winter - changes t
199 enilria : I wasn't aware that FAPA had gotten that commitment in their contract. Is the hiring of a COO the only part of the contract that is not presently in
200 CarsAir04 : Well from what I rememeber and I would have to go back into the archive on the post on a.net also, but finding a COO by November or end of year was p
201 mariner : Since you've quoted me directly, I'll respond and say that I see several more than two scenarios. But - unlike so many here - I cannot predict the fu
202 enilria : I have a lot in common with the pilots, apparently. (even though we didn't agree on the WN bid) Well, I wish them luck. I pray FAPA can enforce that
203 mariner : The share price, for one. Seriously, I don't know why you try and engage with me. I have no interest in your "Frontier must go away" scenarios. Other
204 n7371f : Some other observations from being on the call... >beginning in 1Q2012 MCI will have more ASMs than MKE >final (3) E-170's are leaving the netwo
205 FRNT787 : That was big IMO. This really highlights the major downsize MKE has seen, and the tough decisions being made there.
206 Post contains images kingcavalier : This pretty much sums up today very nicely - Congrats to everyone at F9, especially Daniel Shurz. I like the direction you're going. Ex items they mad
207 Quartz : +1
208 Post contains links mariner : There is a very great deal of cobblers being written out there by people who should know better, and especially with regard to the separation and als
209 Quartz : The FF business has it's problems. Setting aside the company specific issues like PNCL's failure to manage the mismatch between labor costs and annua
210 kingcavalier : Thanks for the perspective Quartz. The instability of the fixed fee business was one of the main justifications for RAH picking up F9 2 years ago. And
211 righteouswind : The great equalizer for PNCL is the upcoming rate resets where all of these issues will be captured and an 8% pre-tax margin will be tacked on. From
212 smoot4208 : So on top of losing 5 Airbus in 2012 and 2 E190s, does this mean that MKE will be completely drawn down by the end of May? With the exception of mayb
213 Post contains links mke717spotter : http://www.jsonline.com/business/rep...tier-1l2vk7a-133477233.html?page=1 Here's today's article from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel talking about Rep
214 smoot4208 : SAT ends later this month, PIT ends in January, and the EAS cities/Rhinelander end in March, pending that another carrier puts a bid in for those cit
215 mariner : There are some aircraft coming in - 3 that I know of. And given that it has kept MCO, PHX and LAS, for example, through this winter I would be mildly
216 smoot4208 : Ok so I guess a handful of routes could stay, but for the likes of CMH, IND, GRR, FNT, BNA, EWR, PHL I'm not so sure what their fate holds.
217 mariner : Isn't EWR staying through the winter, and PHL and DFW? If any route is staying through this winter, then I guess Frontier sees clear potential (CUN b
218 F9Fan : The news caught me off-guard today. From what I read, RJET was looking for a buyer for F9, and not just split them off (unless I misread something, wh
219 smoot4208 : The only reason WN was willing to buy F9 (I believe it was around $60M) was to buy out a competitor in the DEN market. Their rationale on how buying
220 F9Animal : Actually, WN is not licking their chops in DEN anymore. After their recent loss, I suspect they are applying bandages to their chops. Last week I fle
221 FutureFO : FAPA does not exist anymore. All pilots on the seniority list are represented by the Teamsters. Also the NMB has still declared F9 and RAH as a single
222 WWTRAVELER99 : Yes I am confused on this topic. I thought that the ruling was for intergration. How is it that it has not happened? Will it happen? Or has it happen
223 enilria : I see you didn't read the first of the two scenarios I posted, but I'm not surprised by that. It's one of the former USA3000 A320s. I'm surprised you
224 FutureFO : The representation that was elected was IBT. There was an election several months ago. Even regarding seniority. Yes the pilots contract as well as th
225 kingcavalier : But is not also true that there currently is a fence around F9, that no seniority list has been combined yet? I think everyone understands the IBT ru
226 enilria : The answer is that the IBT will eagerly back down and let the F9 people leave from whence they came. They are going to keep up the fight in the inter
227 ScottB : Not based on O&D traffic; that market is under 5 passengers daily each way. The same is true for MKE-FNT. So they'll need the connecting markets
228 mariner : Absolutely. The market was quite happy with the hybrid - until the essential and underlying problems revealed themselves. The market was not averse t
229 enilria : Put simply, the market likes profits and F9 is a huge drag on RJET performance. Now that BB has announced that F9 will be separated the market expres
230 Post contains images mariner : That changes nothing of what I said. But if you believe that fixed fee is a growth area of the industry then, once again, you and I have radically di
231 Post contains links enilria : Never said that or anything remotely close to that. The Dahlman Rose upgrade specifically cites the sale of Frontier as one of two reasons for the up
232 mariner : If you don't believe that then, like BB, you must assume that the future for fixed fee is problematic. Just about every analyst and commentator out t
233 enilria : There is no future for under 70 seat RJs in really any model. BB announced on the call he would attempt to reduce 50 seater lease prices and get labo
234 PlanesNTrains : Regardless of how it was executed. and regardless of the external factors that have played out over the past few years, I'd say that RAH diversifying
235 Post contains links mariner : I'm really not sure what you are trying to prove, beyond what has already been stated. Then history of Wall Street's attitude to the hybrid can be tr
236 enilria : Of course it was not virgin ground. Nearly the exact same stunt has been attempted by everybody except Skywest and Transtates (who have gone down the
237 PlanesNTrains : Ironically, in each of those cases part of the problem was trying to do it with 50 seat jets. ACA had a plethora of them and sank under the weight of
238 Post contains images mariner : Unless he is planning to sell Frontier in toto for peanuts - which is always possible but isn't BB's usual style and wouldn't be good for the shareho
239 enilria : ...and the same thing happened with F9, BB was intent upon sticking 50 seaters at F9 and apparently they will be the only sub-76 seaters left if the
240 mariner : Well, again, you've directly quoted me - and I have no idea why - but because of that I shall respond. Nothing that is happening here is a surprise t
241 GentFromAlaska : I think a top shelf Scotch or Brandy is in order
242 PlanesNTrains : Sticking some 50-seaters at F9 is hardly comparable to the other examples. F9 has 50-seaters, but they hardly make up the majority of the flying, or
243 Post contains links mariner : I love to watch BB's financial brain at work and I can sometimes work out what he is doing, but only sometimes. I understood the basics of the auctio
244 ScottB : It doesn't matter much who will own the slots; the relevant section from the Federal Register states:
245 mariner : Yes - thanks - but I was aware of that. I still think it is interesting, given all the hoo-haa, that Republic has structured it this way. I understan
246 mke717spotter : Honestly, a part of me wonders if there's even enough connections as of now to make it work. Lots of routes/flights have been axed and I think I reme
247 GentFromAlaska : May would be the perfect time to shift and use the Q's north and let them operate as a shuttle of sorts between Seward, Homer, Valdez to ANC, supplem
248 enilria : We know you do. I simply quote BB from the analyst call. It was indeed an interesting quote. Surely it was smaller potatoes, but endemic of the same
249 PlanesNTrains : He wasn't building a business plan around the 50 seaters. They were already there - he was just using what he already had. At the same time, he was a
250 tztristar500 : Spirit is exactly what F9 is slowly turning into with the ULCC comment from BB, the 168 pax coming to the A320s, 144 pax on the A319s, and then sliml
251 enilria : BB has pretty clearly called it an asset management strategy and I think one of the purposes of the deal originally in BB's head was pretty clearly t
252 ScottB : What successful LCC has tried to order/operate five different aircraft families? Republic had 76-seaters buzzing around the islands as Mokulele and t
253 PlanesNTrains : Scott, as you know JetBlue operates both the 170/190 families and the A32X families. However, I'm not advocating that it's a great idea for everyone,
254 Post contains links mariner : For my money, Spirit - and especially Allegiant - are doing some of the most interesting stuff out there. Cranky Flier has a link through to the Alle
255 smoot4208 : I agree. IMO that';s the only sure way for it to be profitable long term. I'm really not sure why you guys even respond to each other. Through 28 F9
256 enilria : There is some truth in that, but Mariner raises good points worth commenting on often. Besides, to ignore Mariner is to ignore this whole thread. He
257 PlanesNTrains : Yes, that'd be the first time someone operated aircraft with different engines..... It's really challenging to comment in these threads because every
258 enilria : Sorry, yes I have that happen too. My point was only that the E170 and E190 do not have as many cross-efficiencies as other "families", so B6 doesn't
259 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : No need to apologize. I'm sure it happens all over the place. I'm sure that's true, but again, it is spinning away from whatever it was I was actuall
260 mariner : Well, you've directly quoted me again, but I'm snookered - except to state an obvious fact - In its latter days, USA3000 was not so vibrant. At the t
261 enilria : On the OAG threads this happens all the time: I say X could happen. 2nd person says Y will definitely happen. I say Y could happen, but it isn't like
262 FutureFO : Since when does jetBlue operate the E170. They only operate the 190/A320.
263 PlanesNTrains : I said families. While not identical, the 170 and 190 are similar, so I just lumped them together. We could go on all day long about what does and do
264 Post contains images GentFromAlaska : Eyes don't fail me now. Did I interpet a of sorts?
265 Post contains images point2point : Lots and lots of chatter with F9 going on here in so many directions and threads. One can wonder where to jump in, and everything shifts around. But s
266 Post contains images mariner : By me? Absolutely. I don't come here to fight. I am told that BB has just confirmed to the staff most of the basics of what I have been saying - and
267 Post contains links pilotfox : Frontier cutting 120 more jobs in Milwaukee http://www.jsonline.com/business/fro...n-milwaukee-r130jg3-133655853.html
268 CarsAir04 : Yes, a lot of great things said, lots of clarification. A very good overview.
269 mke717spotter : Oh yeah? How about the 333 employees that are getting laid off at MKE? I'm sure they had a positive approach to the job and look where its gotten the
270 rampart : This makes no sense. Because colleagues are fired, customer service should suffer? Utopian, positive approach is grounds for chopping block? Or is it
271 mke717spotter : It doesn't have anything to do with customer service, its simply a warning not to get your hopes up too high and I'm not the first person to share th
272 thegoldenargosy : Did you forget that this is America? Of course the bitter employees are going to take it on the passengers.
273 CarsAir04 : I understand your point, but I dont think it is wrong for us employees to try and keep positive. Many of us lost, or know people who lost their jobs
274 mke717spotter : Sure, I guess I just get annoyed with some of the overly-biased posts because its easy to tell when someone's been drinking the Kool-Aid.
275 rampart : Honestly, just don't read it. I know if I'm in a pissy mood, I'll just bypass the annoying posts (even if I agree with them). It becomes apparent tha
276 Post contains images F9Animal : Please, understand that I have no choice but to be positive. I have been in this industry for over 15 years. I have been laid off over 6 times. I hav
277 Post contains links mariner : More than 250 posts - time for a new thread: New Frontier/Republic #29 (by mariner Nov 11 2011 in Civil Aviation) mariner
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