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Dubai Airshow 2011 - Middle East Orders  
User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (2 years 11 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 16415 times:

With the 2011 Dubai airshow fast approaching, any thoughts on whether we are likely to see bumper orders? I recall that the 2009 show was a rather sombre affair, with Airbus fairing better than Boeing in orders, but still way short of levels from previous years.

I think it will be interesting to see whether the "Arab Spring" will have a knock-on effect on orders from Middle East carriers. For a start, given the recent fighting Libya undoubtedly needs a new fleet. Also, Yemen has plans to acquire A350's - will that still happen or will those plans get shelved with the current turmoil?

Another interesting point is that Boeing has maintained "off the record" / "back channel" contact with Iran Air over the years, and met with the Iran Air folks at the 2009 show. The question is whether Boeing is going to continue such contact in light of the new sanctions imposed on Iran Air by the US government:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...nctions-iran-idUSTRE75M5EF20110623

Word is that Qatar Airways are set for a mega order - however is there really enough passenger demand to accommodate Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad's plans for world domination?

65 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineQatarA340 From Qatar, joined May 2006, 1838 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (2 years 11 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 15985 times:

Quoting koreana380 (Thread starter):
"Arab Spring" will have a knock-on effect on orders from Middle East carriers

I dont think so.

Libya wasnt sanctioned during Gadaffi's last few years--its airlines are operating modern 737's, A320s, And A330s no problem! It will continue to recieve the new jets. The growth of this is affected for sure.

Egypt has seen a decline in aviation, but not that bad. Yemen is still struggling as the country is still ruled by a madman.

As for airlines of the Arabian Gulf, their growth is expanding with no signs of slowdown!



لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12566 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (2 years 11 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 15970 times:
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I expect to see the following:

QR - 5-10 additional A380, 30 or so NEO family.

EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.

EY - not sure we'll see anything from them.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 11 months 20 hours ago) and read 15190 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.

Perhaps the launch of the A380-900?
  


User currently offlinesirtoby From Germany, joined Nov 2007, 378 posts, RR: 22
Reply 4, posted (2 years 11 months 16 hours ago) and read 14630 times:

ALAFCO firming and topping up their A320neo order.

User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1610 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 11 months 15 hours ago) and read 14440 times:

Quoting koreana380 (Thread starter):
For a start, given the recent fighting Libya undoubtedly needs a new fleet. Also, Yemen has plans to acquire A350's - will that still happen or will those plans get shelved with the current turmoil?

Funny, that. In a thread about A350-800's someone thought the ones for Afriqiah and Yemen would surely be cancelled... However, before those are to be delivered it will be 2016, and who knows what the world would like by then.

For the record: Afriqiah has 6 A358's on order, Libyan Arab 4, and Yemenia has ordered 10 A358's.

I don't know about the state of Afriqiah's current fleet. They lost an A332 last year of course, and it seems an A306 was destroyed in the fightings. There were also reports about an A332 being damaged. I guess they will try to lease some A330's to bridge capacity gaps - or they can convert Gadaffi's A342 into a pax jet, since he doesn't need it anymore      



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 13842 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 5):
it seems an A306 was destroyed in the fightings. There were also reports about an A332 being damaged.

A report on CNN stated that Most of Libya's airline fleet had been destroyed in the fighting - I found that hard to believe.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 13834 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
QR - 5-10 additional A380

With or without engines?


User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12566 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 13570 times:
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Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
With or without engines?

With engines = Airbus.

Without engines = bus.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13129 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 13241 times:
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Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
QR - 5-10 additional A380

With or without engines?

Which engines will they select? I suspect RR, but I have not seen confirmation.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineyegbey01 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1726 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 13152 times:

I sure hope MEA would pick up 2 or 3 A350's!!!

User currently offlineHiJazzey From Saudi Arabia, joined Sep 2005, 869 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 13141 times:

I would like to see SV order some NEOs. Something like 10x A320 , 10x A321, and 40 options would be ideal. When they start arriving they can return some of the A320s back to the lessor.

User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9821 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 13108 times:

Quoting Chiad (Reply 3):
Perhaps the launch of the A380-900?

Now there's something I can see happening. To my knowledge EK and CX have indicated they would be interested in the -900 version. Any others (QF)?

A388


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 12658 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 12):
To my knowledge EK and CX have indicated they would be interested in the -900 version. Any others (QF)?

Some of the pax in (over) full QF388s might welcome a 389 or 5! But pax wishes might not be that high on the QF agenda!!   


User currently offlineOLBA From Lebanon, joined Jun 2011, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 12565 times:

Didn't MEA say a couple years ago that they would pick either the 787 or the 350? what happened with that?

User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 12295 times:

Quoting OLBA (Reply 14):
Didn't MEA say a couple years ago that they would pick either the 787 or the 350? what happened with that?

From what I recall they were swaying towards the A350, haven't heard much about this in a while though.


User currently offlinehal9213 From Germany, joined May 2009, 302 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 12137 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
EK - maybe another 30 A380s plus more 77Ws.

I dont see a reason, why they should order more A380 now. Later, sure, but what benefit do they have ordering now rather than later?
77Ws definately. They have a huge gap between the current last 77W delivery and any A350-1000 coming, especially if we take any possible delays into account. My bet is on 30 77Ws.


User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 11992 times:

Quoting hal9213 (Reply 16):
My bet is on 30 77Ws.

If that does in fact happen their future 777 fleet will be in the neighborhood of 150 aircraft - pretty amazing considering these guys started out with just a couple of airplanes 25 years ago.


User currently offlinePanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 4162 posts, RR: 89
Reply 18, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 11876 times:
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COMMUNITY MANAGER

Quoting sirtoby (Reply 4):
ALAFCO firming and topping up their A320neo order.

Definately, they announced yesterday we are to expect an increase in their order for the A320neo

He added that Alafco was in talks with Airbus over a new order. "We are in negotiations with Airbus to increase the last order, and any outcome will be announced at the Dubai Airshow in November," Zabin said.

At the Paris Airshow in June, Alafco signed a memorandum of understanding to purchase 30 A320neo family aircraft, worth a total of $2.7bn at list prices.


Source

Quoting HiJazzey (Reply 11):
I would like to see SV order some NEOs. Something like 10x A320 , 10x A321, and 40 options would be ideal. When they start arriving they can return some of the A320s back to the lessor.

A good point and it may not just be limited to narrowbodies either as they have stated they intend to order 50 more aircraft to modernise their fleet. The A320neo must be a part of their plans along with the possibility of them firming 10 77Ws.

Only a small article available here Bloomberg

Overall, there are indications it could be a good show for the OEMs and Middle Eastern carriers

Regards,

Paul



Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 11489 times:

Any thoughts on Gulf Air's 787 order, I believe they recently cancelled a number of planes which leaves them with approx 16 787's on order - think they will see it through?

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6920 posts, RR: 63
Reply 20, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 11271 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
Which engines will they select? I suspect RR, but I have not seen confirmation.

I wonder why you say that? Some months ago I was given the weakest of hints that it would be RR but I'm still holding my breath.

It's certainly a critical order for both RR and EA.


User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10694 times:

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 18):
The A320neo must be a part of their plans along with the possibility of them firming 10 77Ws.

Anyone think the 737"Max" is in the running for SV's single aisle fleet development?


User currently offlinemalioil From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2010, 124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 10644 times:

Quoting koreana380 (Reply 19):

So far they should do, there is talk that they might return the 2 leased E170s back to Embraer due to issues with too little cargo capacity on the regional jets.

Also, there is a very strong possibility that some if not all the 20 A330-300s on order will be converted into A319s or A320s.

If GF gets (and it must with the age of its fleet) new aircraft for a long haul fleet they are going to be the B787s, so I doubt those 16 will get any less. All other orders are in doubt though.

[Edited 2011-10-29 11:32:48]


Flights Booked: BAH-DOH-EDI-LGW-JER-LGW-EDI-DOH-BAH-LHR-EDI-LHR-EDI-LHR-BAH-DXB-HKG-SIN-HKG-DXB-BAH-LHR-EDI
User currently offlinekoreana380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 10169 times:

Quoting malioil (Reply 22):

Also, there is a very strong possibility that some if not all the 20 A330-300s on order will be converted into A319s or A320s.

If that happens, do you think they will opt for NEO's?

Quoting malioil (Reply 22):

If GF gets (and it must with the age of its fleet) new aircraft for a long haul fleet they are going to be the B787s, so I doubt those 16 will get any less. All other orders are in doubt though.

I had read some time ago that Samer Majali was planning on transitioning Gulf Air into a regional carrier as he had come to the realization that his carrier simply couldn't compete against the likes of Emirates and Qatar Airways in the long haul market. So with that considered are their 787 orders really that secure?


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9360 times:

From today's press release, looks like we're going t get some annoucements from at least Airbus:

http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/new...ficient-aircraft-at-dubai-airshow/


"Airbus will hold several media briefings and announcements during the course of the show including an update of the Global Market Forecast for the Middle East. The general Airbus press conference will be held on Wednesday 16th November starting at 12:00 noon in the Dubai Airshow Press Conference Room 2 (in the East Hall). Airbus Military will give a press briefing on Tuesday 15th November starting at 11:00, also in Conference Room 2. "


25 Post contains links flood : Citing "widespread leaks", AirInsight expects EK to order another large number of A380s while QR takes 10 A380s and the 50 NEOs which were previously
26 Post contains images scbriml : The article says they'll increase their commitment to ten in total. In other words, an additional five. In addition to the suggested 50 for QR, we co
27 lightsaber : The A320neo numbers 50 and should be with the PW GTF engine. What's a very good run for Pratt? Thanks, Neil
28 Post contains images lightsaber : From Scbriml's link: It is possible BBD will have one or two other announcements, but don’t expect Qatar to be one of them. Al-Baker continues to to
29 N14AZ : From that press release: ??? I am not a native speaker as you all know, but are they are seriously saying that the ACJ 318 and the ACJ 320 will have
30 Post contains images Chiad : Could this mean that the A380 order-book will once again increase year-on? Sounds fantastic! And yet are still some people who wonder why Airbus laun
31 wingman : I didn't see the story of EK's financial reporting from yesterday which showed a 79% drop in net income, attributed by the writer to excess capacity..
32 Post contains links and images sf260 : It was a 76% drop http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...tes-earnings-idUSL5E7M12UJ20111103 Disappointing result nonetheless. With the delay in the A3
33 Post contains links and images scbriml : Absolutely not. A more balanced view from Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...tes-earnings-idUSL5E7M12UJ20111103 Revenue was up 15% and p
34 Chiad : Doesn't have to be. We'll have to look at the load factor for that. It could simply be higher cost without the ability to raise fares?!? Much of the
35 scbriml : Load factor was down marginally from, I think 81% to 79%. But, more revenue from more passengers doesn't suggest over-capacity to me.
36 wingman : The comment on capacity is right in there. Load factors are down. Maybe that analyst has his head up his ass. I'm just pointing it out. Any way you cu
37 Post contains links mffoda : Speaking of Dubai... Has anyone seen this bit of news? "Dubai Aerospace Said to Seek $3.3 Billion Boeing Order Shift" http://www.businessweek.com/news
38 scbriml : Well, you know, I suspect that EK's management has a much better idea of how to run arguably the World's most successful airline than any analyst. If
39 Post contains images Chiad : Oh no! That's not good! Is the B748 really under-performing that much?
40 Ferminios : Maybe we can see WY ordering a few extra A330s or ordering some A350s? Last time I heard they were evaluating their 787 orders (or at least demanding
41 BrouAviation : What do you guys think of the fact that Airbus doesn't even bother to bring its flagship to the show this year. Coincidence?
42 flash330 : How many test aircraft do they have? Because remember one is doing the Trent xwb tests at the moment
43 BrouAviation : Thank you, that could very well be the reason. Is the new engine fitted to F-WWDD? Anyone with more info on this?
44 Post contains images scbriml : I don't think it means anything.
45 hal9213 : For me, the only thing making sense for EK to order is more 77W to bridge the gap between the current last 77W delivery and first, possibly further de
46 sf260 : Clark said they expect to replace 58 (IIRC) aircraft, they still have 40+ 77W on order and of course new A380s will also free up more 77W's. I can al
47 frigatebird : And not just EK. Expect a top-up order from QR for 777s as well.
48 Post contains links N14AZ : I am not sure if this has been posted somewhere else before but Reuters is saying now that Qatar will make an announcement for 5 additional A 380s and
49 Post contains images lightsaber : NOT ME! and to award an engine contract for the planes to Engine Alliance, a joint venture between GE and Pratt & Whitney Finally EA wins a new a
50 Post contains links koreana380 : Any thoughts on the likelihood of PIA placing an order at the show? They have gone on record as saying that they plan to place orders in December, so
51 scouseflyer : Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 41): How many test aircraft do they have? Because remember one is doing the Trent xwb tests at the moment There were 5 ori
52 koreana380 : That would certainly would kill two birds with one stone and would get some nice PR kudos for the Airbus marketing folks.
53 Post contains images Chiad : Thank you for the news! That would be a formidable order! I have hopes that Airbus will pass 1500 orders this year. With Republics firming up yesterd
54 lollomz : No rumors about russian planes order/s ????
55 Post contains images PM : I did. It ain't over yet...
56 Post contains links flood : According to Reuters, EK is in talks for "at least 30 and possibly as many as 50 Boeing 777s" which may be announced in time for Dubai. The article a
57 Post contains links sirtoby : Irkut blocked a press conference room on Monday - look here: http://www.dubaiairshow.aero/press/press-conferences Looks like we can expect a few anno
58 flood : It seems fedex did as well. Could we be seeing their 767F or A332F order?? It was reported in September they were asking for the best and final offer
59 Post contains links koreana380 : Does their order for 50 A320's have anything to do with their expansion into Iran to operate Iranian domestic flights? http://gulfnews.com/business/a
60 Post contains images lightsaber : With Al Baker, I wouldn't disagree. Holy cow! If that is the widebody freighter order, that could rock the industry. So mark the clocks for 15:00 (Du
61 Post contains images GBan : I'm rather confident that they won't arrange press conferences at a show for bad news
62 lollomz : I hope they will announce some new orders for the future, I'm really curious....
63 Post contains images Ferminios : Just noticed that FZ (FlyDubai) has booked time on Tuesday at 1 PM right after Boeing. May be they'll have something to tell as well?
64 Post contains links koreana380 : Analysts have valued the deal to be worth $15 billion: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/1...bai-emirates-idUKTRE7AC08L20111113
65 Post contains links moderators : As the event has started please continue in the following threads; Dubai Air Show 2011 Airbus - EADS Orders (by moderators Nov 12 2011 in Civil Aviati
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