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AS Announces Daily SJC/OAK-HNL  
User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 962 posts, RR: 2
Posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 6279 times:

As many were predicting, AS is not finished expanding into Hawaii. Daily service from both SJC and OAK to HNL begins on April 10th, 2012. I'm sure that strong bookings SAN-HNL took a part in this decision to add more HNL service.

http://splash.alaskasworld.com/Newsr...s/ASstories/AS_20111101_063158.asp

60 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3077 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 6219 times:

You made the call Tom! I got your hint in the other thread.

Interesting to see how AS and HA do in the competition.

What's next for AS?


User currently offlinemikesairways From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 713 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 6064 times:
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It definitely will get interesting, with HA starting OGG in 2012. A little competition is good and it looks like the demand is there. Now if AS will only add points to destinations east.

Anyone know if AS/QX has considered adding RNO once Southwest cuts that route?



The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 962 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 6031 times:

Quoting mikesairways (Reply 2):
Anyone know if AS/QX has considered adding RNO once Southwest cuts that route?

The only city AS/QX serves RNO from is SEA. RNO has had a tough time the last few years and has lost a lot of service ...I don't see that changing. People interested in gaming now go to LAS...people interested in bowling go to RNO. 'Nuff said.  


User currently onlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3077 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 5852 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 3):
people interested in bowling go to RNO. 'Nuff said.

Only partially true, but I know what you mean. RNO is the gateway to some incredible ski areas and great outdoors activity. It's close to Lake Tahoe and interesting places like Virginia City. I personally have no use at all for the ugly sleaziness of LAS, except to get out of that hell hole as fast as I can on my way to places like Zion National Park.

Back to topic, it appears that AS is willing to go head to head with HA on routes outside SEA. Not much more Hawaii service that they can add from SJC and OAK. They've got all the main islands covered.

Without looking, let see if I can write all of AS's Hawaii routes. Can anyone fill in comments about how each route is performing?

ANC-HNL
ANC-OGG
BLI-HNL
SEA-HNL
SEA-LIH
SEA-OGG
SEA-KOA
PDX-HNL
PDX-OGG
PDX-KOA
SMF-OGG
OAK-HNL
OAK-LIH
OAK-OGG
OAK-KOA
SJC-HNL
SJC-LIH
SJC-OGG
SJC-KOA
SAN-HNL
SAN-OGG

Pretty impressive, huh? What's next?


User currently offlinemikesairways From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 713 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 5784 times:
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Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 3):
The only city AS/QX serves RNO from is SEA. RNO has had a tough time the last few years and has lost a lot of service ...I don't see that changing. People interested in gaming now go to LAS...people interested in bowling go to RNO. 'Nuff said.

Call me a dreamer - but I bet the Q400 would be a great fit to start a TVL service.



The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
User currently onlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3077 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 5756 times:

Quoting mikesairways (Reply 5):

Call me a dreamer - but I bet the Q400 would be a great fit to start a TVL service.

That's been stated before, along with CCR. Some people posted that neither airport allows commercial service anymore. But yeah, a QX Q400 would make a great modern day replacement for PSA and Air California Electras providing service to TVL.

I could see SEA-TVL (maybe seasonally); LAX-TVL, SFO-TVL and SJC-TVL working.


User currently offlinemikesairways From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 713 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 5739 times:
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In the 90's there was Tahoe Air that flew 73S SJC/LAX to TVL. It was somewhat short lived, but still.


The red zone is for the immediate loading and unloading of passengers only, there is no stopping in the white zone...(Ai
User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1963 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 5668 times:

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 4):
Pretty impressive, huh? What's next?

Yes, VERY impressive. That's 21 flts to the Islands out of 8 mainland cities.



My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
User currently onlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3077 posts, RR: 7
Reply 9, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 5606 times:

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 8):
That's 21 flts to the Islands out of 8 mainland cities.

Yes, but some of those are more than one frequency a day, so it's more than 21. If you told me five years ago that AS would be flying SJC-LIH, as an extreme example I'd have told you that you are nuts. Heck, I'd have said that about SEA-HNL.

Any insider know how much more Hawaii expansion that AS plans?

As I summarized in another thread, I can see these happening:

BLI-OGG
PDX-LIH
SMF-KOA
SAN-KOA
SAN-LIH
ANC-KOA

Apparently, AS does NOT plan these for a number of reasons:

SEA-ITO
LGB-Hawaii
SNA-Hawaii
SFO-Hawaii
LAX-Hawaii


User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 962 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5421 times:

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):

BLI-OGG
PDX-LIH
SMF-KOA
SAN-KOA
SAN-LIH
ANC-KOA

Of these, I'd say the least chance would be ANC-KOA or SMF-KOA, BLI-OGG and PDX-LIH a possibility but not daily. KOA and LIH just don't have the draw that OGG or HNL have. ANC- LIH / KOA would have to be x times per week as well. If ANC-OGG can't go daily then they never could.


User currently onlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3077 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5398 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 10):
KOA and LIH just don't have the draw that OGG or HNL

Not sure why. I like Kauai by far the best of any Hawaiian island. Anyway, do they take weight restrictions on OGG-ANC? That seems like an awfully long flight and OGG isn't the longest runway.


User currently offlinen7371f From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1734 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5371 times:
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Anyone know or have any guesses what routes the aircraft are coming off for this service? They've got to come from somewhere...maybe further capacity reduction along the west coast?

User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5437 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5312 times:

With today's surprising announcement of both OAK and SJC service to HNL, I'm counting a/c for all the newly announced flights during the first 4 months of 2012.

I count at least 5 new planes needed for what has already been announced:
> the March 12 increases in the SJC-LIH/KOA service = 1 new 738
> the March 12 increases in the OAK-LIH/KOA service = 1 new 738
> the March 12 new SEA-MCI route = 1 new 73-something
> the April 10 new OAK-HNL flight = 1 new 738
> the April 10 new SJC-HNL flight = 1 new 738
> I keep hearing that some SEA-Hawaii routes are seeing (temporary?) increased capacity and
> Jan 8 is seeing 2 new r/t between SEA and BOI/GEG (I don't know the a/c type).

My latest info shows that AS is supposed to be receiving new 738s (or 739s?) in Jan, Feb, May, Oct, Nov & Dec. I have also heard that some of the 734s that were supposed to be returned to the leasors may not be.

Seems to me like a LOT of additional a/c are needed and the deliveries from Boeing are certainly not covering those increases in service. Can anyone disclose how this is all possible? Are there routes/flights being cancelled? A lot of seasonal service changes? Or maybe I'm just not counting things up correctly...

Thanks for setting me straight here.

bb


User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5437 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5287 times:

(Hey n737', like minds... hope someone can help us figure this out.)

bb


User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1963 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5281 times:

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):

Yes, but some of those are more than one frequency a day, so it's more than 21

Ugh, you're right. Amazing. Meanwhile, WN is sitting there staring out the window doing nothing. Congrats to AS!



My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
User currently offlinen7371f From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1734 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 5176 times:
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Quoting SANFan (Reply 13):
> Jan 8 is seeing 2 new r/t between SEA and BOI/GEG (I don't know the a/c type).

That's on the Q400...

I believe AS management mentioned the option of keeping the 737-400's due to go back to lessors but I don't think the decision date is early 2012...think it's mid to late year.

I'm gonna guess the planes are coming off SEA-California runs and maybe off SEA-ANC. I recently looked at AS' schedule south of SEA and was amazed at how much it has shrunk by frequencies. There are routes where the drop is upwards of 25% over just a few years ago.


User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5437 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5132 times:

Yeah, I think we should talk amongst ourselves while we wait for an answer.  
Quoting n7371f (Reply 16):
That's on the Q400...

I wondered but there are so many flights already in those markets that I couldn't really tell which flights were new ones.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 16):
I believe AS management mentioned the option of keeping the 737-400's due to go back to lessors but I don't think the decision date is early 2012...think it's mid to late year

That was also my understanding. So that whole issue shouldn't be affecting these first quarter additions.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 16):
I'm gonna guess the planes are coming off SEA-California runs and maybe off SEA-ANC. I recently looked at AS' schedule south of SEA and was amazed at how much it has shrunk by frequencies. There are routes where the drop is upwards of 25% over just a few years ago

It's possible. I know that SAN's seasonal PVR flight ended last year right about the second week of April but what AS's done this year is simply use a SEA r/t to supply the a/c for the 3x weekly PVR flight. Therefore, unless they really cut the SAN-SEA service quite drastically, that shouldn't be providing any of the a/c for all these new flights...

As far as generally cutting SEA-CA flights starting in March and April, with VX and WN (to the Bay Area anyway) around, I can't imagine AS could risk cutting too much (more.) Interesting situation...

As I've said all along, I'm thrilled to see Chester doing so much new flying. It's just sometimes a mystery as to how he's managing to do it!

???

bb


User currently onlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3077 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5109 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 17):
As I've said all along, I'm thrilled to see Chester doing so much new flying. It's just sometimes a mystery as to how he's managing to do it!

Because he's getting lei'd so much lately that it keeps him youthful and full of energy!  


User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 962 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4992 times:

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 18):
Because he's getting lei'd so much lately that it keeps him youthful and full of energy!  

OMG that's a riot! LOL

So, there are three new -800 ETOPS coming as stated previously between January and May. One for MCI, one for SJC-HNL and one for OAK-HNL. Three -400's with expiring leases I assume are being held over a big longer. Winter reductions after Christmas on select non-sun and fun routes (ORD, DFW, MSP) will make a huge difference...reduce by one flight per day each and there's three a/c. There are two -900ER's coming late in the year.

I'm curious to see how this all gets pulled off come next May when the summer schedule with increased service to Alaska ramps up. I'm sure we'll see SEA/PDX-HNL/OGG return to only one or two flights daily so that's a huge help.


User currently offline777fan From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2502 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4960 times:

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):

Ugh, you're right. Amazing. Meanwhile, WN is sitting there staring out the window doing nothing. Congrats to AS!

I suspect that's only a matter of time and once it begins, I'd expect WN will have a tremendous feed into whatever West Coast point (LAX? OAK? SJC? SAN?) they decide to use. Naturally, I'm sure there are plenty more in the know and many more that will claim to be so, that can chime in on the matter.

777fan



DC-8 61/63/71 DC-9-30/50 MD-80/82/83 DC-10-10/30 MD-11 717 721/2 732/3/4/5/G/8/9 741/2/4 752 762/3 777 A306/319/20/33 AT
User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3471 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 4905 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 13):
Seems to me like a LOT of additional a/c are needed and the deliveries from Boeing are certainly not covering those increases in service.

If Hawaii is profitable it makes sense for AS to rush in and get planes on those routes ASAP. With Allegiant and Southwest both saying they are interested in Hawaii flying it makes sense for AS to even pull planes off/downgrading plane sizes on mediocre routes to get some Hawaii markets on lock down that are profitable. Try to push Allegiant and Southwest to enter Hawaii from different cities. Make those smaller profitable ones on AS lockdown and loyalty and seem less attractive for the other guys to start which will make the non AS cities seem more attractive where theres more wiggle room for an additional player with lower costs. I think we really could see Allegiant launch Hawaii from LAX first and go against the legacies and go for the o&d that LAX has so much of to Hawaii. I think AS is making some smart moves here and beating people on the less competative cities that are actually making money.


User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 962 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 4848 times:

It's going to be sloppy seconds for G4 and WN by the time they get their @#*% together. Announcing their 'intentions' years in advance only empowered AS to be even more aggressive on the Hawaii expansion. They have over 120 flights a week today...by spring closer to 140 a week.

I can't imagine what will be left for G4....Fresno, Bakersfield, Eugene-HNL twice a week? Why bother going through all the expense of ETOPS and starting Hawaii for the scraps they'll be getting. Hotels ain't cheap in Hawaii either...their business model is for low-budget travelers.

WN is another story....they'll make a run at OAK/PHX/LAX to probably HNL and OGG but since it doesn't appear they've even started an ETOPS program (heck, they don't even see their first -800's until March '12) I don't see them up and running until 2013 at the earliest. If they were smart they'd start now in certifying some -700's and go from BUR and SNA initially as no one is doing that. It's going to be years by the time they're a factor.

By the time we see either of them AS will own the west coast to Hawaii. Arguably they already do now in just five short years. Does AS have more flights mainland-Hawaii than HA?


User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1963 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 4846 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 22):

It's going to be sloppy seconds for G4 and WN by the time they get their @#*% together

Agreed.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 22):
but since it doesn't appear they've even started an ETOPS program

Apparently, WN has completed or is nearly finished with the paperwork aspect of ETOPS certification, so that's good news. But again, can't do the proving runs until an -800 comes... that's in MAR '12.



My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5804 posts, RR: 14
Reply 24, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4761 times:

I won't be surprised to see FAT to Hawaii 2 to 4 times per week, along with a few other cities.

I also expect G4 will likely do SCK to Hawaii easily 2 to 4 times per week. They've been marketing SCK-LAS in both the Sacramento and Livermore areas and drawing well from both. (Allegiant handled 50,632 pax at SCK in 2010, a 78% increase over 2009.) Cheaper parking at SCK (especially since SMF just raised parking rates again) for a week easily offsets the drive.

Allegiant attracts a higher demographic than many realize. G4 sells the convenience of non-stop from smaller cities which attacts more than low-budget travellers. Check the hotel list on the website and there are many higher price point hotels. The most recent management presentation put G4's customer mean income at over $104,000 per year.

More G4 customer demographics at the presentation slide:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...2468/000143774911006520/ex99-1.htm

Now if AS wanted to run 2 to 4 times per week thru FAT to Hawaii to keep the market from G4 I wouldn't object, either airline gives us a Hawaii nonstop.   



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
25 777fan : G4, perhaps, but unlikely for WN - as mentioned before, they'll have plenty of loyal pax to feed into the flights, most of whom they probably don't e
26 HiFlyerAS : True....SW will be able to feed traffic from their mid-con cities (DEN, ABQ, DAL, BNA, etc) so they may need less local-boarding people. In that AS m
27 wedgetail737 : It's great to see AS adding even more West Coast - Hawaii flights. This is the most Hawaii flights both OAK and SJC will have in its history. If some
28 laca773 : Does anyone know if AS will be placing extra fuel tanks in any of their new 739ERs? This would help these birds a lot during the strong head winds at
29 Post contains images HPRamper : But...WN is not a connecting airline!!! I think AS starting the Hawaii route from OAK was a great move to grab pax from a heavily WN station. If AS c
30 christao17 : According to Great Circle Mapper, ANC-OGG is only 160 miles longer than SEA-OGG and is within the range for the planes AS is sending on the route, so
31 wedgetail737 : Weight restrictions or fuel stops become necessary when the Pineapple Express comes into play. Since when has WN not been a connecting airline???? Pe
32 RWA380 : G4 is your non-connecting carrier, not WN
33 BoeingGuy : Given the apparent success of BLI-HNL, I've wondered if AS might try some more flights from secondary markets, maybe just once or twice a week. I won
34 HPRamper : That was tongue-in-cheek given all the recent flamewars regarding WN hubs. AS needs more planes before they could even think about it.
35 LV : I'm wondering if AS isn't making behind the scenes moves to secure more lift for the SEA/PDX - California/Mexico flying so it can throw every ETOPS 73
36 yeelep : There are currently no plans to have the 739ER's ETOPS equipped. I may be wrong, but I don't think the planes will have additional fuel tanks. There
37 BoeingGuy : Can you elaborate? Why would they need the -900ERs ETOPS? AS has enough -800s to fly to Hawaii until Chester's heart is content. The -900ERs can then
38 slcdeltarumd11 : Yeah i think AS is trying to make WN and Allegiants entry into OAK/SJC less attractive and taking on the O&D of LAX/SFO-HNL and the higher cost l
39 n471wn : I do not think so as the Mainland to Hawaii market is so underserved now that there is much room for more growth and WN will "grow the total market"
40 yeelep : A potential change to the ETOPS program as it applies to the 737NG. I don't think I should be any more specific. Not true, they're still converting n
41 BoeingGuy : Isn't that kind of what I was saying?
42 slcdeltarumd11 : I totally agree i think both Allegiant and Southwest stimulate the market with lower one way and last minute fares generally speaking but they are al
43 yeelep : Ah, I misunderstood your point. There's 20 more that could potentially be converted. However they aren't as easily converted as they weren't configur
44 Post contains images HPRamper : Walk-up fares are great for WN...but I don't see them being much of a factor if at all on Hawaii routings. Last-minute vacation bookings are not real
45 HiFlyerAS : Good point. Who decides the day prior to take off to Hawaii for a week? I don't understand why people STILL continue to think of SW as having 'low fa
46 777fan : Underserved? Hmmm, not sure about that. If anything, the capacity's probably about "just right" at least until the overall economy picks up again. As
47 Post contains images n7371f : Southwest is fooling a lot of people.
48 ha763 : IF, and it is a big if, AS wants more capacity on a Hawaii route without adding another flight. The 900ER doesn't need the extra tanks for a cross-co
49 Post contains images Hamlet69 : BoeingGuy, How about this one: PAE-HNL. Haha. Maybe one day, once all the NIMBY's are dead. :-/ Regards, Hamlet69
50 ha763 : Are there NIMBY issues with PAE? I thought it was BFI that had the NIMBY issue regarding pax flights? BTW, we already have pax flights BFI-HNL. Not c
51 Hamlet69 : Oh yes. Been on-going for well over two years now. AS/QX want to launch PAE-PDX and PAE-GEG flights, while G4 want to do PAE-LAS. However, after their
52 EA CO AS : Not exactly - AS/QX don't "want" to; PAE service was only being considered as a strategic move if other carriers were successful in starting service
53 Hamlet69 : True. IIRC, the QX announcement came about 2 months after G4 applied for LAS service. It seemed reactionary at the time, but in the intervening years,
54 Post contains images yeelep : I don't know what your talking about.
55 ha763 : I remember WN stating their desire for BFI service followed by AS and the NIMBY opposition. I guess I missed the PAE news.
56 Post contains images HiFlyerAS : BFI doesn't have the issue of NIMBY'S...that's PAE. Anyone could start commercial service at BFI if they wanted to and in fact it already exists (Kenm
57 BoeingGuy : Yeah, okay I get it now. I do recall someone telling me that AS and others were trying to change this certain 737 ETOPS related operational requireme
58 Post contains images BoeingGuy : Off topic, but don't forget that RW and its predecessors served BFI until about 1970-71. They flew yellow DC-9s into there, instead of SEA. As I stat
59 gmcc : I remember seeing an interview about the fuel hedging program where there was mention of working with the ETOPS regs regarding the APU.
60 yeelep : You remember correctly.
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