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W11/12 Transatlantic Offer Detailed Analysis  
User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Posted (2 years 10 months 2 hours ago) and read 8210 times:

Hi all,

Following a good reception of my previous transatlantic offer analysis (summer 2011), here's a new, more detailed analysis covering winter 2011/12. It's now in a PDF file because of the presentation limitations of this forum.

Here are some of the highlights:

- Airport with the largest transatlantic seats offer: London Heathrow.

- Country with the largest transatlantic seats offer: USA.

- Busiest transatlantic route: New York JFK to London Heathrow.

- Alliance with the largest transatlantic offer: Star Alliance.

- Airline with the largest transatlantic offer: British Airways.

- Most popular transatlantic aircraft: Boeing 767.

- Total weekly eastbound seats offered: 966 111.

- Total weekly eastbound flights offered: 3 580

Detailed rankings, charts, maps and trivia can be found in the analysis document:

Analysis download link (3.5 MB PDF)

Here's a simplified version of the raw data I gathered to write this analysis:

Raw data download link (400 KB PDF)

All comments and discussions in this thread are welcome.

Cheers

BrusselsSouth

32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineleftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 693 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 10 months 2 hours ago) and read 8154 times:

Simply amazing stuff! Thanks a lot for providing these sheets, amazing to look at when bored at work!

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16865 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (2 years 10 months 1 hour ago) and read 8017 times:

The page 21 chart about EWR is missing some destinations, such as DEL.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinefun2fly From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1043 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 10 months 1 hour ago) and read 7959 times:

Phenominal work! Welcome to my RU list.

User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (2 years 10 months ago) and read 7807 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
The page 21 chart about EWR is missing some destinations, such as DEL.

Good catch. Hopefully there aren't too many other omissions. Do you see any ?

Regards
BrusselsSouth


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16865 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (2 years 10 months ago) and read 7786 times:

Quoting BrusselsSouth (Reply 4):
Hopefully there aren't too many other omissions. Do you see any ?

EWR-ATH.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (2 years 10 months ago) and read 7686 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 5):
EWR-ATH.

It would appear that this route isn't operated during the week considered, but thanks anyway.

Regard
BrusselsSouth


User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 7638 times:

Fantastic work....

I think DLs flight ATL-JNB was the only thing that I saw missing.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 7532 times:

Quoting United1 (Reply 7):
I think DLs flight ATL-JNB was the only thing that I saw missing.

You're right. Thanks for pointing it out.

Regards
BrusselsSouth


User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7298 times:

I have updated the analysis document with both missing flights.

Regards
BrusselsSouth


User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1833 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7250 times:

Despite the minor aforementioned omissions this is one of the best reports I've seen. Great work and I look forward to future installments!

As an aside, I would enjoy seeing some sort of graphical representation of time series data for the week in question. It would be very interesting to see the variance in seat/flight offerings over the past, say, 5 years.

Again, well done!



Flying refined.
User currently offlinetoobz From Finland, joined Jan 2010, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7221 times:

wow
i thought DL was top dog across the Atlantic...when did BA overtake DL?


User currently offlinevadheim From Norway, joined Jul 2000, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7169 times:

EWR - OSL - EWR
CO 038/039 is daily and not 5 weekly.


User currently offlineGRUIAD From United States of America, joined Sep 2010, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 7028 times:

This analysis is superb!! So fun to look at

The week of 21 - 27 November includes the Thanksgiving holiday. While most flights operate on Thanksgiving Day, some airlines do cancel services on this day due to lower loads. Here is sample of November 24th cancellations versus November 17th schedule:

BA: JFK-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: EWR-LHR (3x frequency cxlld)
AF: JFK-CDG (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: BOS-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
DL: DTW-AMS (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: EWR-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
UA: IAD-FRA (1x frequncy cxlld)
BA: IAD-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AA: JFK-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AA: ORD-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
UA: IAD-LHR (2x frequency cxlld)
UA; ORD-LHR (2x frequency cxlld)
AA: BOS-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AA: DFW-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: EWR-CDG (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: IAH-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: IAH-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: JFK-LCY (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: LAX-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
IB: MIA-MAD (1x frequency cxlld)
DL: MSP-AMS (1x frequency cxlld)
UA: ORD-FRA (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: ORD-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: PHL-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
BA: SFO-LHR (1x frequency cxlld)
AF: YUL-CDG (1x frequency cxlld)
AC: YYZ-FRA (1x frequency cxlld)
CO: IAD-CDG (2x frequency cxlld)
BA: ATL-LHR
AF: BOS-CDG
LH: BOS-MUC
LX: BOS-ZRH
US: CLT-FCO
US: CLT-FRA
US: CLT-LGW
LH: CLT-MUC
DL: CVG-CDG
BA: DEN-LHR
BA: DFW-LHR
AF: DTW-CDG
CO: EWR-ARN
CO: EWR-BCN
CO: EWR-BFS
CO: EWR-BHX
CO: EWR-BRU
CO: EWR-CPH
CO: EWR-EDI
CO: EWR-FCO
CO: EWR-FRA
CO: EWR-GVA
CO: EWR HAM
CO: EWR-MAD
CO: EWR-MUC
LH: EWR-MUC
CO: EWR-MXP
CO: EWR-OSL
CO: EWR-SNN
CO: EWR-STR
LX: EWR-ZRH
UA: EWR-ZRH
CO: IAD-AMS
UA: IAD-DME
UA: IAD-GVA
UA: IAD-MAD
UA: IAD-MUC
UA: IAD-ZRH
CO: IAH-AMS
AF: IAH-CDG
CO: IAH-CDG
CO: IAH-FRA
DL: JFK-BRU
AA: JFK-ZRH
UA: LAX-LHR
DL: MEM-AMS
UA: ORD-AMS
UA: ORD-BRU
SK: ORD-CPH
LH: ORD-MUC
LO: ORD-WAW
US: PHL-AMS
US: PHL-BRU
US: PHL-CDG
US: PHL-DUB
US: PHL-FCO
US: PHL-FRA
US: PHL-LHR
US: PHL-LHR
US: PHL-MAD
US: PHL-MAN
US: PHL-MUC
US: PHL-ZRH
BA: PHX-LHR
AA: RDU-LHR
BA: SAN-LHR
UA: SFO-FRA
LH: SFO-MUC
LX: SFO-ZRH


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 6935 times:

This is a fantastic analysis. Thank you.

This helps clarify fact verus perception on everything from alliance share to premium seats offered in a particular market. How long did it take you to complete this analysis?


User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 6629 times:

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 13):
The week of 21 - 27 November includes the Thanksgiving holiday. While most flights operate on Thanksgiving Day, some airlines do cancel services on this day due to lower loads. Here is sample of November 24th cancellations versus November 17th schedule:

Believe it or not, when I picked the random week (back in October), I totally forgot about thanksgiving. While the analysis remains valid with respect to its assumptions, it would have been best to gather the data for the following week as to have a more standard picture. I wonder whether the offer for a "normal" week exceeds the one million weekly seats (one-way) mark...

Quoting vadheim (Reply 12):
EWR - OSL - EWR
CO 038/039 is daily and not 5 weekly.

Thanks for pointing that out. I had a look at CO's PDF timetable and it seems that flight operates only 5 weekly during the thanksgiving week (daily for other weeks). So while the analysis remains correct, the same remark as above applies.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 10):
As an aside, I would enjoy seeing some sort of graphical representation of time series data for the week in question. It would be very interesting to see the variance in seat/flight offerings over the past, say, 5 years.

This is something I too would enjoy, but I fear it goes beyond the scope of a simple, fun, free analysis.

Thank you all for your remarks.

Regards
BrusselsSouth


User currently offlinegoldorak From France, joined Sep 2006, 1843 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6591 times:

Simply amazing !!!  
I was particularly impressed about the rank of France-FDF/PTP routes : "Also note the impressive 5th and 7th place of the Fort de France and Pointe à Pitre to Paris Orly routes, making those as busy as the New York Kennedy to Paris CDG route."
I knew the traffic was huge but not at that point.
Also, I think the Corsair flight ORY-YUL is missing in the ORY analysis
Thank you so much for this great great work   


User currently offlinebnaowb From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5835 times:

Incredibly well done! An absolutely fascinating analysis! Thank you very much for posting this.

A few observations.....
1) Brazil has 50.4% of South America's transatlantic seats.

2) Mexico plus Panama/El Salvador/Costa Rica has only 23.84% of the "Central America" transatlantic seats. So, Caribbean island destinations dominate this category with the remaining 76.16%. Panama/El Salvador/Costa Rica (without Mexico) constitute only 1.2% of this category.

In the coming years, it will be interesting to see whether flights to Africa and the Gulf have significant gains in their respective shares of the overall transatlantic market.


User currently offlinerafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1229 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 5426 times:

Very good analysis,

However I do have one remark... The Fun Facts table lists the longest Central America-Europe flight as Guyaquil-Amsterdam. Ecuador cannot, under no circumstances, be considered Central America.

It is also curious (almost uncanny) not to see South Africa mentioned in the busiest countries table.

[Edited 2011-11-22 15:36:06]

User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3203 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5361 times:

Considering that LHR is by far the largest trans-Atlantic European gateway, it is interesting that CDG, FRA, and AMS all serve at least twice as many South American destinations than LHR and LGW combined. I would have expected this from MAD and LIS, but perhaps not the others.


FLYi
User currently offlineBrusselsSouth From Belgium, joined Aug 2001, 628 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 5210 times:

Quoting goldorak (Reply 16):
Also, I think the Corsair flight ORY-YUL is missing in the ORY analysis

This is only a seasonal (summer) service according to Corsairfly's web site. However, I'll be happy to add it in the document if you can provide an alternative source showing that it operates during the winter.

Quoting rafabozzolla (Reply 18):
The Fun Facts table lists the longest Central America-Europe flight as Guyaquil-Amsterdam. Ecuador cannot, under no circumstances, be considered Central America.

Oops, for some reason, it seems I associated Ecuador with Central America in my database. Thank you for catching this, it's now corrected.

Quoting rafabozzolla (Reply 18):
It is also curious (almost uncanny) not to see South Africa mentioned in the busiest countries table

South Africa appeared at the very bottom of the list after the addition of ATL-JNB. Thank you anyway for mentioning this.

Quoting EricR (Reply 14):
How long did it take you to complete this analysis?

Mmmmh, you don't really want to know  

The link in the OP now points to revision 3 of the analysis document, that includes the following corrections:

- DL's ATL-JNB flight (incidentally, becomes longest North America-Africa flight).
- CO's EWR-DEL flight.
- Air Europa (UX): Unaffiliated -> SkyTeam.
- Ecuador: Central America -> South America (including correction for shortest/longest flights).

Thank you all for your suggestions, remarks and kind comments. Keep them coming...

Regards
BrusselsSouth


User currently offlinegkirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24936 posts, RR: 56
Reply 21, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5178 times:

Quoting BrusselsSouth (Thread starter):
- Most popular transatlantic aircraft: Boeing 767.

Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest



When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7600 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 5021 times:

Nice work!

One other point is that EK is shifting one of it's IAH flights to DFW February 5.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3471 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4989 times:

Fantastic Job.

All these years later...JFK-LHR is still where it is at.

Ironically, dominance of this route started when Ocean Liners' most important route was Southhampton to Manhattan.

And just like now, the British liners had the largest market share on the route.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 24, posted (2 years 9 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4937 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest
Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Surprised thats not the 757 or 777 to be honest
Quoting gkirk (Reply 21):
Quoting BrusselsSouth (Thread starter):
- Most popular transatlantic aircraft: Boeing 767.

The difference between the number of flights weekly by a 767 is only about 10% more then a 777. The number of seats by 777 weekly is more then 767's.


25 rheinwaldner : Good analysis! Thanks for publishing it!
26 ual777uk : Absolutely brilliant report........you clearly have put hours of work into it, very well done. looks like the 777 could be close to taking top spot.
27 Ychocky : This is delicious. Nice work, good presentation.
28 Delta763 : I just wasted a whole day at work absorbing this. Great work!
29 bananaboy : Amazing work - thank you. Were Monarch Airlines not operating any transatlantic flights during the week evaluated? Not that it would make much differe
30 seabosdca : One million seats per week across the Atlantic. I knew it was a high-volume market, but that's just amazing.
31 Post contains images hooverman : Thanks for your analysis. Can't imagine the time it cost you. Looks like the middle eastern carriers are moving in fast and furious. Me too
32 BrusselsSouth : Really good to read all the positive feedback, thank you all. Apparently, no, according to their official schedule search engine (http://www.monarch.c
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