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Less Than 50 Seat RJ's Going Way Of The Dinosaur?  
User currently offlinejetpilot From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3130 posts, RR: 29
Posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 14076 times:

How many planes are we talking about being scrapped. Thousands? What's going to replace them. CRJ700/900/1000 and the like?

http://news.yahoo.com/airlines-cut-s...ts-fuel-prices-soar-161057500.html

[Edited 2011-11-25 16:17:38]

[Edited 2011-11-25 16:20:42]

57 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 14016 times:

Quoting jetpilot (Thread starter):
What's going to replace them. CRJ700/900/1000

...and ATR42/72, Q400, E-Jets, MRJ, SSJ100.


User currently offlinejetpilot From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3130 posts, RR: 29
Reply 2, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 13993 times:

They are getting rid of the turboprops too.

User currently offlineirshava From Ukraine, joined Oct 2011, 249 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13915 times:

Regional Props are the way to go... at least in Europe....


“If you were born without wings, do nothing to prevent them from growing.”
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 4, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 13897 times:

The under 70 seat segment will probably mostly go to the big T-Props by the end of the decade....perhaps even under 90 if BBD and ATR go ahead with their long awaited 90 seaters.

The next gen jets coming out will be significantly more efficient than todays models but I reckon we've seen our last new under 70 seat jet.



What the...?
User currently offlinestarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1129 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13309 times:

and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

I would think the pricing would allow someone to get larger aircraft than they could otherwise afford.

And private aircraft have no where near the cycles that would cause concern for a buyer....



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13520 posts, RR: 100
Reply 6, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13176 times:
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It won't change the conclusion, but the OP link example has the CR2 buring more fuel than I believe it will for a 500 mile journey (19gal/pax*50pax)=950 gallons. While the MD-90 is at 1200 gallons for the same flight. If my memory serves, the CR2 is more like 13gal/pax for a 500 mile journey. Using 2900 lbm/hr which is ~426 gal/hr. Both end up at approximately 650 to 700 gallons for a 500nm flight (vs 950 if it is 19 gal per pax for 500 miles).

CRJ200 Fuel Burn (by TechSpec Oct 27 2008 in Tech Ops)

I'm personally surprised 50 seat RJs have survived this long. The economics haven't been there for years. This is from someone who *loved* CO's ERJ-135s.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
The next gen jets coming out will be significantly more efficient than todays models but I reckon we've seen our last new under 70 seat jet.

I agree. While I'm excited for the GTF, I wonder what today's fuel prices are doing to the business case of the MRJ.  
Quoting starrion (Reply 5):

and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

At what price? I'm sure CO and AA would love to sell their parked E135s. But at this point, it could be cheaper to pay the lease and return them to the financing company. Until a few years ago, I'm sure they were worth more as parts for the E145 fleet.

How many could be converted to executive jets? We're talking 1900 RJs of which perhaps 500 are not in condition to become executive jets (e.g., older RJs with lower MTOW/range and thus not suitable for conversion).

It will be interesting when AA or DL does their next round of RJ 'consolidation.'

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineunityofsaints From Ireland, joined Nov 2011, 50 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 12963 times:

Hopefully more turboprops. Better for the environment and more fun to fly on.

Longtime lurker, first time poster  


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 12938 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
It will be interesting when AA or DL does their next round of RJ 'consolidation.'

Lightsaber



DL will be about done next year. From 2010, they had said they will park and return to lessors, CR2s that they do not need through 2012. The shuttering of Comair will continue until they are only flying a handful of 50 seaters and a few CR7s/9s. As a matter of fact they are loosing 3 additional CR7s to GoJet in conjunction with the 12 that are transferring from OO/EV to bring the contract count to 15.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineCRJ 900 From Canada, joined Mar 2001, 595 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 11445 times:

They're retiring ours (jazz), aside from their speed I'm not sad to see them go. I agree that big propjets are the way to go for the shorter routes and then 75 +seat jets for the rest. Our new Q4s are very nice, there's only a couple problems with them. If AC wants Jazz to fly those from YQM-YYZ(which starts next month) then they should have coughed up the money to have tvs put on them(even tho Jazz owns those airplanes). That route is blocked at 3h10 (Q4)compare to 2h10 on the jet(winter). I think the airplane is best suited for 1h or 1h30 max from YYZ and would be perfect for ops out of YVR. They also made a huge mistake installing "poor man's coffee machines". They've actually had to remove them due to issues. They should have installed either the jugs or potable h2o system. People need to get over this perception that props are antiquated technology. Those are jet engines driving those big props afterall.

User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8034 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 11332 times:

With new and improved turboprop engines, we could see a LOT of ATR's sold to replace older smaller jets, on the proviso that ATR redesign the wing to better accommodate the type of icing conditions we see in the upper Midwest and US Northeast in winter--in short, the wings may have to be electrically de-iced.

User currently onlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 10921 times:

Quoting starrion (Reply 5):
and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

There's a lot of companies specialized in CR2 conversion :

MJet, Flying Colours, Comlux America, Project Phoenix, Field Aviation West, JetCorp, Capital Aviation, etc


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7804 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 10792 times:

AA uses the ERJ out of DFW and CO does out of IAH on tons of profitable routes that are too far for a turboprop.

I cant see them going away completely.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineaamd11 From UK - Wales, joined Nov 2001, 1061 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 10671 times:

Quoting CRJ 900 (Reply 9):
If AC wants Jazz to fly those from YQM-YYZ(which starts next month) then they should have coughed up the money to have tvs put on them(even tho Jazz owns those airplanes). That route is blocked at 3h10 (Q4)compare to 2h10 on the jet(winter).

3:10 is one hell of a block for YQM-YYZ... Porter's YQM-YOW-YTZ services on their Q400s are blocked at around 3:15 including the 30 minute stop in YOW. The direct YQM-YTZ flights operated by PD over the Christmas period are only 2:40.

I think PTVs on a Q400 make little sense economically... conventional wisdom has it that Q400s, and turboprops in general, are more efficient on the shorter hops. To operate a Q400 on a longer route where the efficiency advantages taper off and then lumber the aircraft with heavy IFE equipment seems counterproductive.

In-flight Wifi might be a thought for Q400 fleets (particularly for Porter) but PTVs I can't see making their way onto Q400s, really.


User currently offlineAcey559 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1544 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9480 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):
AA uses the ERJ out of DFW and CO does out of IAH on tons of profitable routes that are too far for a turboprop.

I cant see them going away completely.

Back in September when I was going through indoc, Dan Garton came to talk to us and basically said the same thing. He said that because there are so many routes that AA/MQ controls pricing on, especially the longer intra-Texas flights, even the -135s can be profitable. He said he doesn't see the end of them at MQ in the near term, and for my sake and many of my fellow employees I hope he's right.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 15, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9398 times:

Wifi can definitely sub as IFE, considering how many people have tablets, smartphones or smaller notebooks, or even...I shudder to think...books.

As it is, expectations of IFE are getting a bit over the top, I reckon. Passengers should be able to find some way to amuse themselves for 3 hours, without it being the responsibility of the airline.



What the...?
User currently offlinecyeg66 From Canada, joined Feb 2011, 210 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 9203 times:

Quoting CRJ 900 (Reply 9):
That route is blocked at 3h10 (Q4)compare to 2h10 on the jet(winter).

???

Quoting aamd11 (Reply 13):
3:10 is one hell of a block for YQM-YYZ... Porter's YQM-YOW-YTZ services on their Q400s are blocked at around 3:15 including the 30 minute stop in YOW. The direct YQM-YTZ flights operated by PD over the Christmas period are only 2:40.

Sorta what I was thinking, it would *probably* only take about 20 mins more than CRJ100/200.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 15):
As it is, expectations of IFE are getting a bit over the top, I reckon. Passengers should be able to find some way to amuse themselves for 3 hours, without it being the responsibility of the airline.

Couldn't agree with you more.



slow to 160, contact tower, slow to 160, contact tower, slow to....ZZZZZZZ......
User currently onlineABQopsHP From United States of America, joined May 2006, 861 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 9184 times:

Quoting Acey559 (Reply 14):
the longer intra-Texas flights, even the -135s can be profitable.

When I first started with XE the 135's were still in the system. Now I only get to see MQ bring theirs into CRP. I always liked the sporty little jet, and find it interesting that AA/MQ can make it profitable, but CO could not. The Q400's are on some of the longer markets out of IAH, such as IAH-TUL and OKC. They operate on IAH-MAF / MFE and DFW/DAL in state. The longest route I saw out of IAH was to MTJ last spring . If UA post merger gets rid of all the 50 seaters I am curious to see what will replace them on midsize markets such as AMA CRP and MAF. And what about cities such as VCT, who has Colgan Saabs? My guess is it will not have service to IAH at all, only MQ to DFW.

JD CRP



A line is evidence that other people exist.
User currently offlinecanoecarrier From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2843 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 8363 times:

Quoting queb (Reply 11):
There's a lot of companies specialized in CR2 conversion

There may be, but as lightsabre said:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
How many could be converted to executive jets? We're talking 1900 RJs of which perhaps 500 are not in condition to become executive jets

The market for large business jets isn't at 1400 aircraft. It's true you can convert a CR2 for about half the cost of a new Challenger 850. There is a market, but I wouldn't say you could take a significant percentage of the under 50 seat RJ market and continue flying them as bizjets.

Flightglobal covered this a few years ago.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ions-are-good-for-business-316592/

You'll notice that Flying Colors was looking at delivering 8 CR2 conversions in 2009. I suspect those numbers didn't grow much over the past couple years given the economy.



The beatings will continue until morale improves
User currently offlineMD80Nut From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 978 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7862 times:

From what the linked article says, they are discontinuing service to many small cities alltogether, so nothing is going to replace many of them. Already many are sitting somewhere awaiting their fate. I suppose they will keep using the remaining 50 seat or less jets until the more efficent 70+ pax models become available. Some routes which are served by multiple RJ will probably be consolidated into a one or two MD80/A320X/737.

I don't have a problem with turboprops at all, I like the ATRs and Dash 8s. I hope they are a solution to help maintain service to the remaining small cities that have it.

Given the state of the economy, at least here in the US, I believe few of the parked RJs will be conversted to private / executive use.

Cheersd, Ralph



Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
User currently offlineUM78 From Italy, joined Nov 2011, 42 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7399 times:
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In Europe the trend is already started, lot of dismisions.
LH has been one the first to decide to never go under the 100 seats.


User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26785 posts, RR: 75
Reply 21, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7386 times:

Quoting irshava (Reply 3):
Regional Props are the way to go... at least in Europe....

Regional props are the way to go everywhere. Props + smaller mainline. Majors are stupid to have their smallest aircraft as 73G/A319

Quoting starrion (Reply 5):

and there is no market to refurb the CRJ and ERJ for private jets?

I would think the pricing would allow someone to get larger aircraft than they could otherwise afford.

No range and bad economy.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):

AA uses the ERJ out of DFW and CO does out of IAH on tons of profitable routes that are too far for a turboprop.

I cant see them going away completely.

You put mainline or larger regional jets on those routes

Quoting ABQopsHP (Reply 17):
I always liked the sporty little jet, and find it interesting that AA/MQ can make it profitable, but CO could not.

Remember, AMR owns MQ, while CO no longer owns ExpressJet.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2983 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7172 times:
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Would Embraer be able to sell Legacy "kit's" to change the E135's into private jets or refurbish them for smaller regionals around the world or charter service? What is an E 135's range?


The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
User currently offlineUnited727 From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 412 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 6928 times:

Quoting VC10er (Reply 22):
Would Embraer be able to sell Legacy "kit's" to change the E135's into private jets or refurbish them for smaller regionals around the world or charter service? What is an E 135's range?

And with that said, what is the current "book" value of the E35's/CR2's, etc?



Looking for the impossible way to save those dying breeds!!!!
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 24, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 6516 times:

I wonder if there's a market for military/coast guard/border patrol/air ambulance/SAR type usage for these aircraft. I would guess that the majority of these craft are being mothballed due to operating cost, as opposed to mx costs.

They'd certainly lead a more docile life doing government work of some sort than the slam/bam grind they currently go through.



What the...?
25 nycdave : In choosing between the E-Jets and the CRJ700/900 being the two big players in this field (especially in the US), what qualities are there for an airl
26 Coronado : The sad conclusion is that a whole bunch of airports that currently have CRJ/ERJ 37-50 pax service will be loosing service alltogether, unless: a) The
27 CRJ 900 : OOOOPS my bad I dunno what I was looking at yyz-yqm 2h12 and yqm-yyz 2H47 blk...just checked in in the bid package. Maybe it was the rumored YYG -YYZ
28 EMBQA : To a fully Legacy..? The cost would be astronomical. To a Corporate Shuttle Legacy, it has already been done. But why...? The secondary market on Leg
29 bjorn14 : Published range is 1,750nm for an LR. About a 1/4 of them are in the desert right now.
30 scutfarcus : My two cents - this is a screaming call for regional high speed rail in the United States. Fat chance it happens given the political climate, but rail
31 JoeCanuck : It's not just political climate...it's billions of dollars that just aren't available, and most of it would be picked up by the public purse. Most ai
32 TOLtommy : Majors didn't want it that way. AC flew the CRJ100 under an agreement that got furloughed pilots back to work. But once all those pilots were back, i
33 9w748capt : You bring up a good point. I also wonder what will happen at an airport like AZO. We used to have (gulp!) at least 1-2 mainline flights a day on DC-9
34 PPVRA : I'm thinking corporate shuttle and charter could take a few of them. Tough part is the economy right now. Book value isn't going to tell you anything
35 Post contains links and images Devilfish : At least those got built and flew revenue service.....this never did... http://www.astronautix.com/graphics/d/dynab52.jpg
36 saab2000 : I predict a number of the 50 seaters will be in service for quite a few years to come. The fact is that like the ancient DC-9s at NWA, once the acquis
37 TOLtommy : Rail will never break even, high speed rail even less so. The infrastructure for regional air service is already in place. I don't advocate subsidizi
38 planemaker : Your airline might but the the overall domestic airline industry future is very uncertain. The more people I talk with the more I realize that few pe
39 747400sp : GOOD! I can not stand those CRJ 100/200, now I do like the EMB ERJs, but a MD80/90 flying in its place, is fine with me. What I would like to see, is
40 knope2001 : At least in the US, while I do think that some communities will lose all air service, I don’t think that’s the biggest story here. The bulk of 50-
41 747400sp : From that article, it looks like MCI is going to get some orders from Air Bus of Oxnard CA, for their Oxnard-LAX shuttle. Hey this may be an opportuni
42 boberito6589 : I saw on here that the airline i think you work for was actually adding 2-3 more CRJ-200s, how is that going? Hopefully better than Piedmont's attemp
43 DBQ : Two things I am not getting: 1. Would airlines really bring back turboprops when passengers are used to jets. 2. If they don't bring them back can the
44 LOWS : Yes. CO does it with 9L on former mainline 735 routes (OKC-IAH, from personal experience). People seem to get on just fine. Of course in Europe, we a
45 EuroWings : Indeed, European carriers never really ditched turboprops on the same scale as the US. Cityjet (AF) is even still flying refurbished Fokker 50s. Most
46 saab2000 : I have not heard that one, but you never know. We just added the 71st airplane which is operating as an 'operational spare' just to try to improve ou
47 catiii : I don't get it... Agreed. And as someone who has done a lot of CRJ2 flying out of ATL, having had occasion recently to fly on both Porter's Q400s and
48 Post contains images Devilfish : It was just a pun on the misspelled "dinasaur" and the old project.....Dyna-Soar.
49 Post contains images Mainliner : Honestly, I feel that it really doesn't matter what the passengers are used to. The majority of people will book with the airline with the fare that'
50 JoeCanuck : It's the same thing with 10 abreast 777's. Passengers might grumble about SQ being more comfortable but EK doesn't have any trouble filling its planes
51 Flight152 : I've had the unfortunate chance to ride on several Dash 8 models (200, 300 and 400) and can say for certian that all three were noisy, vibrated quite
52 JoeCanuck : Different strokes, I guess. Not everybody is going to agree on everything.
53 baje427 : Has the reliability improved on the Q400
54 tsugambler : The ATR-72 is the only aircraft on which I've become airsick and vomited. I hate it. It is louder and rougher than a jet, and cannot fly as high or as
55 Burkhard : 950 CRJ 100 and 200 from 1992 on and about 1000 ERJ135-145 (from 1995 on) have been built - so in the end which is before 2025 2000 have to be scrapp
56 flyingAY : I don't know if that's a ATR72-200 or -500, but my experience with countless 72-500 and 42-500 flights has been totally opposite. Somehow the turbopr
57 r2rho : Many small communities will have to face the choice of prop service or no air service at all. A Q400 or ATR can do the same trip for similar or lower
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