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WN Near 737MAX Order.  
User currently offlinemffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1071 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 12203 times:

Southwest in talks for 100+ 737MAX...  

"Southwest Airlines Co. is nearing a preliminary deal to order more than 100 of Boeing Co.'s planned 737 Max jetliners, according to people familiar with the matter.

Boeing and Southwest, one of the biggest operators of Boeing's workhorse single-aisle planes, could announce the planned order in the coming weeks, although details are still being worked out, the people said."

From WSJ article...


harder than woodpecker lips...
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineavi8 From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 648 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 12150 times:
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This was an obvious order. WN needs replacements for its aging 737 fleet (especially the 300's and the 500's) and also more fuel efficient aircraft to enable them to improve their LCC model.


avi8
User currently offlinewolbo From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 487 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 12063 times:

Probably the most predictable order on the market. I doubt Airbus even bothered to compete. Just need to find out the exact order number and which MAX type.

User currently offlineikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21515 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 12011 times:

Quoting wolbo (Reply 2):
Probably the most predictable order on the market. I doubt Airbus even bothered to compete. Just need to find out the exact order number and which MAX type.

Likely 737-8 and ultimately 400 frames.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30914 posts, RR: 87
Reply 4, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 11958 times:
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I would think a mix of 737-7 and 737-8, myself and yes, eventually totaling well into three figures.

User currently offlineairportugal310 From Palau, joined Apr 2004, 3625 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 11919 times:

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 3):
Likely 737-8 and ultimately 400 frames.

That will keep Boeing busy for awhile...



I sell airplanes and airplane accessories
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined exactly 7 years ago today! , 5410 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 11383 times:

An interesting question is what percentage of the total 737-7 built will go to WN.

I don't see a lot of other likely customers for the 737-7.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30914 posts, RR: 87
Reply 7, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 11331 times:
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Quoting seabosdca (Reply 6):
I don't see a lot of other likely customers for the 737-7.

I suppose it depends on what the trip cost delta between the 737-7 and 737-8 is, especially for two-class birds. If they are similar to those of the 737-700 and 737-800, I am inclined to agree with you that carriers will likely go for the larger model.


User currently offlineyyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16248 posts, RR: 56
Reply 8, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 11079 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 6):
An interesting question is what percentage of the total 737-7 built will go to WN.

I suspect most of the order will be the -7. They will need to replace the 717, 735 and 733 fleets.

WN has only 26 738's on order now. So their need for large numbers of -8's is questionable IMO.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 6):
I don't see a lot of other likely customers for the 737-7.

Agreed. WS here in Canada is one perhaps, other than WN.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3761 posts, RR: 12
Reply 9, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10827 times:
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Quoting seabosdca (Reply 6):
I don't see a lot of other likely customers for the 737-7.

KLM, Malev, Keyna Airways, Ethiopian, Air Seychelles, ANA, Aero Mexico...just to name some airlines that I can think of as likely candidates although I don't see these airlines ordering it in large numbers.

Other than regular airline customers, Boeing could also propose the 737-7 as a future BBJ.

But yes you're right, I see only WN ordering the 737-7 in large number since they are the only ones who ordered the 700 in large number. So yes, a significant percentage of them could go to WN.

One thing is sure, Boeing won't make a 737-6.

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13023 posts, RR: 100
Reply 10, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10759 times:
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Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 5):
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 3):
Likely 737-8 and ultimately 400 frames.

That will keep Boeing busy for awhile...

Only about 10 months of full production.  
Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
I am inclined to agree with you that carriers will likely go for the larger model.

It wouldn't surprise me to have all 738MAX. With WN's concern about labor costs per available seat mile...

Quoting American 767 (Reply 9):
One thing is sure, Boeing won't make a 737-6.

I see with the engine improvements the 'natural size' of the 737 shifting up one length.

When the 737 went from the JT8D to the CFM, we saw the popular model go from the 732 to the 733 (a stretch). With the 737NG, it has been the 738 as the popular model, albeit with the 73G selling very well. For the 737MAX, I see the 739 doing far better. IMHO, WN will order the 738 size while the competition will try to fill the 739.

I'm not a fan of the A319NEO or 73GMAX. In my opinion the best selling models are likely to be the A321NEO and 738MAX. Not at first, but over the life of the airframe.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineyyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16248 posts, RR: 56
Reply 11, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10696 times:

Quoting American 767 (Reply 9):
One thing is sure, Boeing won't make a 737-6.

Correct. Check out their 737 MAX advertising.... a -6 is not even mentioned.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
For the 737MAX, I see the 739 doing far better.

Agreed. The current 739 was offered later than the 738 and had performance issues; the penultimate 739ER came much later than the 738 which I think has hurt its sales. The MAX -9 is offered up front and should sell well.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
In my opinion the best selling models are likely to be the A321NEO and 738MAX.

I'm a betting man and I bet on the A320NEO and 738MAX.....both hit the 150-160 seat sweet spot. I do see the A321 NEO outselling the A319NEO and the 739MAX outselling the 737MAX though. So momentum is towards the A321 and 739 platforms....



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26444 posts, RR: 75
Reply 12, posted (2 years 8 months 4 weeks ago) and read 10499 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 6):
I don't see a lot of other likely customers for the 737-7.

That really depends on how the airlines decide to use the aircraft.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 8):
WN has only 26 738's on order now. So their need for large numbers of -8's is questionable IMO.

Well, the talk has been that they would order more 738s.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
When the 737 went from the JT8D to the CFM, we saw the popular model go from the 732 to the 733 (a stretch).

One must remember that the stretch didn't happen until the CFM came into existence.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10348 times:

Quite honestly, now that Southwest has the labour contract for larger aircraft settled with their unions, I do not expect them to order anything smaller than 737-8. So - no more 737-7s for WN, in my opinion.


STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3399 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10189 times:

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 8):
I suspect most of the order will be the -7. They will need to replace the 717, 735 and 733 fleets.

They can replace the 717, 735, and 733 with the 73G that are replaced with the 737-8. Going to be plenty of routes currently served by 737NG that will be replaced by 737MAX due to high loads or routes that you would naturaly want your newest equipment on even if the operating economics are no better. IE "prestige" routes.

I wouldn't be suprised if in the end the 737-7 never exists. If WN doesn't order it, who is going to order enough frames to justify it? Unless for some strange reason its a straight shrink of the 737-8 unlike the current 73G which has a number of differences to lower its empty wieght compared to its brother. The 737-700ER is the straight shrink of the current -800.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 12):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
When the 737 went from the JT8D to the CFM, we saw the popular model go from the 732 to the 733 (a stretch).

One must remember that the stretch didn't happen until the CFM came into existence.

With the NG the "best" size jumped another size class. While I doubt the MAX will cause the 737-9 to be a runaway sales hit, It should make the 737-7 a very very hard sell even if you can NEVER sell an extra seat over its capacity. The extra cargo volume and the extra resale value of the 737-8 is tough to ignore. Though saying this, maybe WN will order the 737-9 outfitted with 199 seats.... They will pick up a new type with the 737-8 and the -9 should be a straight stretch of it without the extra changes the -900ER threw into the mix compared to its smaller brother.


User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1941 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10187 times:

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 8):
WN has only 26 738's on order now.

WN currently has 33 738s to be delivered in 2012, starting in March, with up to 80-96 total frames planned throughout the next few years. All -700 orders will be converted into -800s once the first one rolls out in March.



My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10038 times:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 14):
I wouldn't be suprised if in the end the 737-7 never exists. If WN doesn't order it, who is going to order enough frames to justify it?

I think the 737-7 will share the fate of A318: very few airline sales, but quite signficant popularity as a corporate business jet (BBJ Max, anyone?).



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2649 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 9779 times:

As echoed by others, I think this order was a given once the MAX was announced.

[Edited 2011-12-08 04:43:09]


arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30914 posts, RR: 87
Reply 18, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 9548 times:
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Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
I'm not a fan of the A319NEO or 73GMAX. In my opinion the best selling models are likely to be the A321NEO and 738MAX. Not at first, but over the life of the airframe.

The main advantage the smaller models had - range - is effectively negated now because the A320-200neo and 737-8 should be able to fly as far (or farther) than the A319-100 and 737-700 can.


User currently offlineGizmoNC From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 309 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8876 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 13):

Quite honestly, now that Southwest has the labour contract for larger aircraft settled with their unions, I do not expect them to order anything smaller than 737-8. So - no more 737-7s for WN, in my opinion.

AT WN the pilots and the fa's approved the 800 but the TWU (ramp) has not been able to get that settled. The 737-800 is planned at 175 seats that is 38 seats more than the 737-700. WN was averaging 60 plus bags before the BFF (Bags Fly Free program) currently on the 700 we are seeing 90 plus bags. So if you add 38 passengers that is going to add a large number of bags, especially to flights to leisure destinations. WN staffs loading and unloading of 737 with 2 ramp agents. In order to make the turn time (not sure what the 800 is going to be as of yet). Also WN did not go for the option for the carpeted bins on the 800 that rear aft compartment will be about 18 ft longer than the current 700 and with 38 additional passengers there is going to be more bags.


User currently offlinePC12Fan From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 2433 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7002 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 16):
I think the 737-7 will share the fate of A318: very few airline sales, but quite signficant popularity as a corporate business jet (BBJ Max, anyone?).

I think that'll be a giiven, especially with the extra range capability.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 9):
One thing is sure, Boeing won't make a 737-6.

Fantasy thinking here, but I've often wondered what the range would be on a 736BBJ with "wet belly" tanks instead of aux tanks. Now the curiousity continues on a potential 737-6MAX with this design.



Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
User currently offlinedfwrevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 971 posts, RR: 51
Reply 21, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 6859 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
I see with the engine improvements the 'natural size' of the 737 shifting up one length.

When the 737 went from the JT8D to the CFM, we saw the popular model go from the 732 to the 733 (a stretch). With the 737NG, it has been the 738 as the popular model, albeit with the 73G selling very well. For the 737MAX, I see the 739 doing far better. IMHO, WN will order the 738 size while the competition will try to fill the 739.

Boeing did an outstanding job sizing the 737-800, which fit perfectly in the sweet spot of the narrowbody market. Through multiple generations and business cycles, the 150-175 seat market occupied by the 737-800, A320, MD80, and back to the 727-200 has shown the greatest demand.

I'm not saying this won't ever change or the 739MAX won't outsell the 738MAX, but if it does, I expect it will be as a market timing as 757 fleets are overhauled and not a shift in the "right size" of the 737MAX family.


User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9612 posts, RR: 52
Reply 22, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6658 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
I'm not a fan of the A319NEO or 73GMAX. In my opinion the best selling models are likely to be the A321NEO and 738MAX. Not at first, but over the life of the airframe.

The main advantage the smaller models had - range - is effectively negated now because the A320-200neo and 737-8 should be able to fly as far (or farther) than the A319-100 and 737-700 can.

They do have some purpose still. With the 757 gone, the 737-700 is the best short field performance airplane that Boeing makes. The 737-800 can come with an optional short field performance package to land on short runways, but is still payload restricted on takeoff. For an airline operating to runways under 5-6,000ft the 737-700 has a definite purpose as it is the only airplane that Boeing makes that still has enough payload to have adequate range. For example, at SNA, you'll find a large number of 737-700s from DL, CO/UA & AS. Those airlines all have more 737-800s, but the 737-700 is the only airplane that can operate their routes without payload restrictions.

It won't be a hot seller, but jet service into airports with 5,000ft runways is still important and Boeing is not giving up the market where takeoff/landing performance matters to the smaller Embraer E-jets.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offline747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3606 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6609 times:

This is very good news. I have been wondering why WN had yet to put in a order.

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13023 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (2 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 6185 times:
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I do expect 752 replacement to help with my predictions.  
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 11):
The MAX -9 is offered up front and should sell well.

Not only upfront, but with far better range. The current 739ER struggles on TCON missions against winter winds. I should note that Hawaii will remain 738MAX territory as I see the 739ER being non-economic on that length of route.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 11):
So momentum is towards the A321 and 739 platforms....

Yep.   

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 14):
It should make the 737-7 a very very hard sell even if you can NEVER sell an extra seat over its capacity.

Exactly. The 736 and prior to that the 735 taught the airlines a 'harsh lesson' in resale values. With some airlines such as FR, U2, Lionair, and others going to a 'replace early' business model, they must purchase the lengths with the best resale value. The same becomes true of many of the airlines purchasing 2nd hand; they will set the resale value based on the comparative economics.

Look at how poor the A318 and 736 re-sell versus their larger cousins. I expect the A319NEO and 73GMAX to suffer a similar fate.  
Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):
All -700 orders will be converted into -800s once the first one rolls out in March.

Which is another reason I am pessimistic on the 73GMAX. I expect WN to upgauge system wide over the next 15 years.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 16):
I think the 737-7 will share the fate of A318: very few airline sales, but quite signficant popularity as a corporate business jet (BBJ Max, anyone?).

I'll agree with that. In particular if they do a 73GMAXLR.   

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
The main advantage the smaller models had - range - is effectively negated now because the A320-200neo and 737-8 should be able to fly as far (or farther) than the A319-100 and 737-700 can.

   Of course excluding the BBJ market...

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 20):
Now the curiousity continues on a potential 737-6MAX with this design.

   I haven't heard of a hint of a 736MAX.

Quoting dfwrevolution (Reply 21):
Through multiple generations and business cycles, the 150-175 seat market occupied by the 737-800, A320, MD80, and back to the 727-200 has shown the greatest demand.

I expect the relative efficiencies to push the size up one stretch. However, due to the 739MAX's expect short field performance, I expect the 738MAX to outsell it. However, the ratio will 'lose sales' from the 73GMAX and more towards the larger lengths.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
25 PlaneAdmirer : Why not some 9's for restricted airports like DAL, LGA, MDW, etc. where the only way to grow is to increase seats on existing flights? They already go
26 Post contains images PC12Fan : Not until I mentioned it you hadn't!
27 Post contains links KarlB737 : Courtesy: Bloomberg News Southwest Said To Be In Talks To Order Boeing’s New 737 MAX Jet "An order of 100 to 150 of the new jets is under discussio
28 ikramerica : WN has a large fleet of 73G and 733, but also need to trim CASM and increase capacity over time without necessarily following the historic model of op
29 PlaneAdmirer : So why not consider the 737-9? There have to be routes where it makes sense.
30 planemaker : There are 110 airlines flying 644 733's (WN has 166), and there are 71 airlines flying 1,060 73G's (WN has 422) and there are 235 on order. (BTW, the
31 dfwrevolution : Probably for the same reason they picked the 738 over the 739ER (non-MAX)... any route that can support the 739ER can support the 738, but there are
32 LAXDESI : I expect the B73GMAX to be about 21% heavier than 717-200, with 20% higher seat capacity. The larger wings and newer engines of B73GMAX can perhaps o
33 Stitch : I would expect WN to take the 737-7 in order to maintain a single-family operator. They don't seem to want the 717s they inherited, so I don't see th
34 flymia : Well knew this would happen but after the AA order nothing is certain. Good news for Boeing and the Max program when it is in ink.
35 NASCARAirforce : Has the new United announced its future narrow body fleet - to replace aging 757s from both UAL and COA, 737s from COA, A319s/20s from United?
36 lightsaber : For HA short missions, the weight might matter the most for fuel burn. Anything more and the C-series will save money in fuel and engine maintenance
37 PlaneAdmirer : That's sort of where I am heading with this thought. DAL is going to be restricted and will have high volume routes. LGA slots are hard to come by, s
38 planemaker : There are an awful lot of non-738 aircraft in WN's fleet such that I do not see them not not getting the 73GMAX. As it stands now... 733 = 166 735 =
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