Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Will We See Transatlantic RJs In The Future?  
User currently offline747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3507 posts, RR: 2
Posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5199 times:

With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago, we would not seen a 737 or A32X, operating TATL routes. Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.




PS: Do not get me wrong, I believe only wide bodies, SSTs (if one get built) and may be 757s, should be the only thing flying TATL, but lets face it, airlines are down sizing to save money, and if you put big an enough wing and fuel tank on a RJ, 20 years from now, they could be flying TATL.

23 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinesw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6306 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5184 times:

I think it would be tricky to imagine this for a couple reasons:

1) Cargo capacity would be nil. Many (most) airlines make big money off of cargo TATL.

2) Fares would likely be even higher than dedicated Privatair or BA LCY-JFK service, meaning there would be a very small market...no to mention that once you start getting fares incredibly high, you run in to the level of people who may have access to private jets instead of commercial transport.

Just two things that popped in my head right off the bat.


User currently offlineKcrwflyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3795 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5176 times:

The short answer is no. A plane that has seat costs too high to make money on most hour flights can't be profitable on a 6 or 7 hour leg.

User currently offlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1610 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5144 times:

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 2):
The short answer is no. A plane that has seat costs too high to make money on most hour flights can't be profitable on a 6 or 7 hour leg.

This pretty well sums it up. People who could afford to pay the fare necessary to make these flights profitable are probably already flying planes that size across the pond, except without all those other pesky passengers on them.

I could also argue that if a 50-seat plane started flying regular TATL service, we would no longer be able to call that plane a regional jet!   


User currently offlinefpetrutiu From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 881 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5033 times:

No way, there is no way they could fit that much fuel on board, or even if they did, there is no way it would be profitable. They very much depend on short hops and lots of cycles to be profitable.

Quoting steex (Reply 3):
I could also argue that if a 50-seat plane started flying regular TATL service, we would no longer be able to call that plane a regional jet!

I guess it all depends what you consider a region...


User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2173 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 4949 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

A CRJ900 or E190 could probably fly Halifax - Iceland - Europe, but fares would have to be quite cheap for people to take that route.


Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17056 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 4931 times:

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 5):
A CRJ900 or E190 could probably fly Halifax - Iceland - Europe, but fares would have to be quite cheap for people to take that route.

But they would never make any money out of that!



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineairindia787 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 90 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 4922 times:

As if sitting in a 757 for 7 hours isn't bad enough. There are several issues with using RJs for such long ranges, anyway, not least being cost. There is the issue of fuel capacity, catering (since many RJs are not equipped with ovens), lack of cargo/baggage capacity, etc. There is no advantage to using RJs on such short flights, the traffic that would use these flights can simply do what they do now, which is fly to a larger city nearby and connect to wherever they are going.

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12905 posts, RR: 100
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 4723 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

RJ economics tends to flatline after 2300nm. Since 2300nm provides connections anywhere in the USA from an 'interior hub,' there is no demand for adding more range (which adds weight).

There is a rule of '3 for 2' in aircraft size. A 150 seat aircraft will fly a distance on about twice the fuel of a 50 seater (if they were built to the same technology, which doesn't happen as RJ engines must be cheaper).

The cost of adding a TATL wing (4200nm still air range) to a RJ (50 to 90 seats) is insane. It would make the RJ non-viable on the typical 400nm to 900nm RJ route a la the 737-700LR.

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future?

We'll see business jets filling in the low demand routes. Those are much more flexible (non-fixed flight times and destination).

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 2):
The short answer is no. A plane that has seat costs too high to make money on most hour flights can't be profitable on a 6 or 7 hour leg.

   Even the 737-700LR isn't working that well.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 4642 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8):
The cost of adding a TATL wing (4200nm still air range) to a RJ (50 to 90 seats) is insane. It would make the RJ non-viable on the typical 400nm to 900nm RJ route a la the 737-700LR.

After Concorde went out of service Virgin took a hard look at using the GX for London-New York and the economics didn't work back then even with fuel cost lower.

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ

I had a chuckle... if it flew TATL it couldn't be an RJ, could it?  



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinejamake1 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1005 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 4630 times:

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago, we would not seen a 737 or A32X, operating TATL routes. Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.

Don't give 'em any ideas...



United's B747-400. "She's a a cruel lover."
User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2073 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 4557 times:

You might see them as some kind of high end non-scheduled service but as fuel prices rise, smaller planes become less viable. Basic physics start to apply where volume increases by the cube while drag increases by the square. Within practical limits, larger aircraft are more efficient than smaller aircraft.

The result is that there will probably be fewer but larger flights between fewer hubs. Some long, thin routes will bit the dust.


User currently offline747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3507 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4349 times:

Quoting jamake1 (Reply 10):
Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago, we would not seen a 737 or A32X, operating TATL routes. Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.


Don't give 'em any ideas...




Oh believe me, hope no airline will consider this ideal.      

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 11):
The result is that there will probably be fewer but larger flights between fewer hubs. Some long, thin routes will bit the dust.



Sounds good to me! A380s, 747s and 777s between hubs, the only way to fly.   


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11617 posts, RR: 60
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 4065 times:

I wouldn't completely rule it out - not on a large scale, but there may be a niche. Say in 10-15 years time a manufacturer is able to offer BA a 'regional' aircraft which can replace the A318 and ERJs with a single family. Another airline might use the same aircraft as a TATL/long haul route opener, in a similar way to QR's current use of the A319LR. Another could make use of it as an all premium aircraft flying between key economic hubs.

There's too many possibilities and variables to say it definitely wouldn't work; if a carrier feels they can make the numbers add up or save money then who knows.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinemalaysia From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 3333 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 4065 times:

for an RJ, Id rather take an IL-18 coot TATL


There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
User currently offlinecsturdiv From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1450 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4000 times:

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
With all this down sizing in the airline industry lately, do you think we will ever see TATL routes operated by RJ in the future? 20 years ago,

Many years ago when i was first learning how to compile flightplans for Microsoft Flight Simulator, I was working on plans for Olympic Airways, and due to an incorrect airport code in my compiler's database, I had an ATR 42-300 flying nonstop from Greece to some little airport in Kentucky. Although I eventually corrected the file, I always had a chuckle when I watched the little ATR land at the strip in Kentucky. So yes, it could be done and has been done, virtually that is and virtually due to my mistake.  



Posting from somewhere between KORD and KRFD
User currently offlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7363 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3767 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
Heck back then, we would not even have seen a 757 operating on TATL, but we see it now.

scheduled service perhaps not for that long - it's just 15 or 16 years worth of operations I believe. Charters from the likes of Air 2000, Monarch and Air Europe to MCO using 757s were quite common from LTN, LGW & MAN from 1989 onwards.


User currently offlinesawtooth From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 614 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3685 times:

CSeries is on the edge of TATL range, presume the rumored CS500 would increase range if it were built.

User currently offlinezippyjet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 5478 posts, RR: 13
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3570 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 9):
After Concorde went out of service Virgin took a hard look at using the GX for London-New York and the economics didn't work back then even with fuel cost lower.

What is GX? Did you mean VA taking over the Concordes? If so, it didn't happen because BA and AF refused to sell/lease them to Virgin Atlantic.

When I think of RJ across the pond I think of 007 Goldfinger where Pussy Galore pilots a Lockheed Jetstar with Bond as an involuntary passenger from Austria to Lexington, Ky. with a fuel stop at my stomping grounds BWI which was then known as BAL/Friendship International Airport.   


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Carlos A. Morillo Doria
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Jonathan Morgan




I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3537 times:

Quoting csturdiv (Reply 15):
Many years ago when i was first learning how to compile flightplans for Microsoft Flight Simulator, I was working on plans for Olympic Airways, and due to an incorrect airport code in my compiler's database, I had an ATR 42-300 flying nonstop from Greece to some little airport in Kentucky. Although I eventually corrected the file, I always had a chuckle when I watched the little ATR land at the strip in Kentucky. So yes, it could be done and has been done, virtually that is and virtually due to my mistake.

There's an idea. TATL in an ATR. Chosing between that and another hole in my head would be a tough call.  



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlinecontrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3525 times:

What a horrible thought. I certainly hope not.


Flying Colors Forever!
User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3423 times:

Quoting contrails (Reply 20):
What a horrible thought. I certainly hope not.

$5 cheaper than the competitors and someone will make a business out of it



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlinezippyjet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 5478 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3303 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 21):
$5 cheaper than the competitors and someone will make a business out of it

Pet Airways will do a Critter CrawTAT.



I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
User currently offlineaircanada014 From Canada, joined Oct 2005, 1513 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3264 times:

Don't forget during summer season AC flies A319 to LHR from YYT AC822

Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Planes With Winglets In The Future posted Fri Mar 11 2005 19:55:16 by B747PILOT
Airlines In The Future: What Do You See? posted Fri Jul 16 2004 03:30:10 by SIunitsrule
What Do You See Song In The Future? posted Sun Mar 14 2004 20:10:23 by AirplanePeanut
Whats Happening With Braathens In The Future posted Tue May 1 2001 10:13:39 by Emile
What Kind Of Airliners Will We See In The Future? posted Tue Apr 25 2000 04:35:31 by BH346
Delta To Resume BDL-AMS In The Future? posted Mon Oct 18 2010 16:46:59 by boeing71234567
Transatlantic Fares In The Future posted Mon Jun 28 2010 06:07:33 by BAfan
Check-in Obsolete In The Future? posted Mon Oct 5 2009 13:24:53 by Birdwatching
Where To See A Flying Connie In The US? posted Sat May 30 2009 19:22:10 by DALMD88
No More Removing Shoes At Airport In The Future? posted Wed Oct 15 2008 00:09:58 by Elite