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Will Qantas Airways Order The Boeing 747-8I  
User currently offlinemcpcshowcaseHD From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2009, 6 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17549 times:

I know they have the A380 in their fleet with more on the order books, but do you think Qantas will also order the Boeing 747-8I at some point in the future?

I personally hope they will because the Boeing 747-8I would look awesome in the Qantas Livery. It would also give Qantas a bit more flexibility in regards to capacity similar to what Lufthansa and Korean Air are doing by ordering both the A380 and 747-8I.

Your thoughts?


by mcpcshowcaseHD
87 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17512 times:
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Quoting mcpcshowcaseHD (Thread starter):
I know they have the A380 in their fleet with more on the order books, but do you think Qantas will also order the Boeing 747-8I at some point in the future?

I am 100% positive they will not. It serves no purpose in their fleet, as it can perform no mission the A380-800 cannot.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8289 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17513 times:
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Its highly unlikely Qantas will ever operate 748's as they have A380 and 787-9 on the way. IF QF needs a bigger then 787-9 but smaller then A380 its far more probable they would fly a 777NG, if it ever get built.

User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8880 posts, RR: 75
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17439 times:

The latest fleet plan shown on page 108 of the QF December 2011 investor relations documents shows :

QF international A380 only by 2021
QF domestic A330 and 737-800 only by 2021

No 747s, 767s, or 787s in the QF fleet by 2021.

Jetstar will operate A320 series and 787s only by 2021.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinemcpcshowcaseHD From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2009, 6 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17413 times:

Quoting BY738 (Reply 1):
They wont just do it because it would look nice

I know they won't just order because it looks good, it was just a personal thought. The 'business' reason I thought plausible would be to introduce slightly lower capacity below the A380 so to increase flexibility.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
Its highly unlikely Qantas will ever operate 748's as they have A380 and 787-9 on the way. IF QF needs a bigger then 787-9 but smaller then A380 its far more probable they would fly a 777NG, if it ever get built.

I hadn't even considered the 777NG on the basis that Qantas never considered the 777-200LR or 777-300ER.



by mcpcshowcaseHD
User currently offlinemcpcshowcaseHD From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2009, 6 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17413 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
The latest fleet plan shown on page 108 of the QF December 2011 investor relations documents shows :

QF international A380 only by 2021
QF domestic A330 and 737-800 only by 2021

No 747s, 767s, or 787s in the QF fleet by 2021.

Jetstar will operate A320 series and 787s only by 2021.

Thanks Zeke. I guess that definitively answers that (for the time being at least).



by mcpcshowcaseHD
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4387 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17315 times:

The question is, from which size on does a of 380+748 make more money than 380 only, and my guess is that this is from about 40 planes on. Qantas needs about that number of VLA, so I would not exclude it, but don't see them to order with A380s deferred, so not this decade, and will there be 748Is on offer the next decade?

User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10655 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 17305 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):

The latest fleet plan shown on page 108 of the QF December 2011 investor relations documents shows :

QF international A380 only by 2021
QF domestic A330 and 737-800 only by 2021

2021 is a very, very long time, and I am 99% sure QFs fleet will look a bit different in 2021 than they think in 2011. Btw their A330s will be very old by then. Be sure about a widebody order before 2018 (still a long time to go). But sadly I must agree that a 748 order is unlikely. QF without the 747 is not really QF anymore. For more than 40 years its their main aircraft type.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2949 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 17141 times:

Quoting na (Reply 8):
Btw their A330s will be very old by then

They're still taking A330's today. Their earliest A330's would only be 18 years old in 2021, so I'd definitely expect QF to still have them unless they got rid of them quickly.

As for the topic -- no way in hell. They'd order 777's or A350's over 748i's.


User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 17007 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
QF international A380 only by 2021
QF domestic A330 and 737-800 only by 2021

It is this type of reluctance to operate mid-size aircraft on QF mainline (as opposed to JQ) that allowed middle-eastern and east-asian competitors to continue erode QF's market share and forcing them to retrench back to the only area they're bullet proof - London and LA. Dumping everything else onto JQ is just running away from the problem that will eventually come back and haunt them.

The unique geography of Australia with population spread across multiple cities and SYD hub being a backtrack for most people calls for smaller sized aircraft performing p2p.

The 747-8i may not be the right plane for them, but there's no excuse on their international front not to operate anything other than A380s. Even EK's long term plan calls for A359 minimum.


User currently offlineliftsifter From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 16956 times:

I'll reiterate, no way in hell. The 77W is probably a better option than the 748i these days.


A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B738 B744 B763 B772 B77W B787 Q400 E190
User currently offlinefpetrutiu From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 881 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 16926 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
I am 100% positive they will not. It serves no purpose in their fleet, as it can perform no mission the A380-800 cannot.

Wouldn't be so sure about that. The 748i can land anywhere a 744 can, the A380 is very limited on which airports it can service (mostly because of its wingspan). On their current route structure, no problem, however if they want to expand, well that could be a problem.


User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10655 posts, RR: 9
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16909 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 9):
As for the topic -- no way in hell. They'd order 777's or A350's over 748i's.

No way in hell, if anything the A350 in two sizes is much more likely.

Quoting liftsifter (Reply 11):
I'll reiterate, no way in hell. The 77W is probably a better option than the 748i these days.

For some yes, for others not. 77W and 748I are no real alternatives, they belong to different market niches. Optimists go for the 748, pessimists for the 77W, tahats how I see it.


User currently offlinethadocta From Australia, joined Aug 2001, 397 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 16594 times:

Quoting na (Reply 8):
But sadly I must agree that a 748 order is unlikely. QF without the 747 is not really QF anymore. For more than 40 years its their main aircraft type.

Funnily enough, after the retirement of the last 707 and prior to the introduction of the first 767, QF was 100% 747.

Dave


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2949 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 16575 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):
No way in hell, if anything the A350 in two sizes is much more likely.

I should make it clear I'm thinking of a 777NG rather than the current generation. If QF were to order the A350 it would be in small quantities (ie 8 -900's and 4 -1000's) which makes me think that is anything, a Boeing 787-10 for high capacity regional flights, and an enlarged 787-9 fleet would be best overall rather than adding a small additional fleet.


User currently onlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5333 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 16501 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
QF international A380 only by 2021
QF domestic A330 and 737-800 only by 2021

No 747s, 767s, or 787s in the QF fleet by 2021.

What a very odd fleet strategy, and what a very odd network strategy it implies. Relying on JQ for everything but the very biggest trunk routes seems like a way to cede a big portion of their lucrative premium business to SQ and the like while keeping only the garbage fares.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 16279 times:
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Quoting seabosdca (Reply 16):
What a very odd fleet strategy, and what a very odd network strategy it implies.

Honestly, it might not be a bad idea.

NH, for example, is flying very low-density 77Ws on trunk routes, catering to the top end of the market for each class of service (so maximizing RASM to counteract the high CASM), leaving competitors to pick up the rest of the traffic (many using A380s where the lower CASM allows them to remain profitable with lower RASM).

So if QF can convince the top 450 daily customers (by spend) to pick the QF A380 service, they should do quite well for themselves. Then JQ can use the 787-9 for the more price-conscious customers.


User currently onlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5333 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 16005 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
Honestly, it might not be a bad idea.

I'm sure it will work very well on QF's core trunk routes. But I think QF is locking themselves out of other markets. Not every premium-heavy route from Australia can support an A380. I'd think it would be more logical to have some 787-9s configured in a QF international configuration, along with the ones configured for Jetstar.


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4705 posts, RR: 38
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 15828 times:
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Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 12):
The 748i can land anywhere a 744 can, the A380 is very limited on which airports it can service (mostly because of its wingspan).

Nonsense! The number of airports that can service the A380 is rising rapidly, and is not really that far behind the number of airports that can handle the B744. And do not forget that also the B747-8i is an ICAO category F aircraft, just as the A380.

As to the question asked: a B747-8i is highly unlikely for QF. They are even delaying the last batch of A380's so they have no plans to add further VLA-capacity to their fleet anytime soon. It would look good in QF's colors, but that is not a decisive element here.  


User currently offlineBY738 From Tonga, joined Sep 2000, 2266 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14731 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
Nonsense!

Nope, the 748 can land anywhere the 744 can, and lots of other places the A380 cannot


User currently offlinerutankrd From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 2963 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14524 times:
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Quoting BY738 (Reply 20):
Nope, the 748 can land anywhere the 744 can, and lots of other places the A380 cannot

EPA is quite correct the 748i IS CAT F and can therefore ONLY operate from the same cleared airfields as the 388 at this time due to taxiway pavement weight limitations. Nothing to do with length of runway.


User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3501 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14360 times:

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 21):
EPA is quite correct the 748i IS CAT F and can therefore ONLY operate from the same cleared airfields as the 388 at this time due to taxiway pavement weight limitations. Nothing to do with length of runway.

The test aircraft have been through SEA numerous times and it's one of the major airports in the U.S. that publicly stated they wouldn't be making the upgrades necessary to accommodate the A380 (not that anyone would send one there). How does that work? PAE, MWH, PDX, PMD and others have all seen the 748I on a regular basis and I'm not aware of any upgrades there...perhaps you could elaborate on the restrictions?

But yes, unfortunately I also doubt that we'll ever see the 748I in QF colors. Their fleet strategy doesn't seem to leave much room for an aircraft of that type and unless I'm mistaken, they've publicly said that they aren't interested. Really a shame, QF 747s are about as iconic an aircraft as you can find in the world and they will be missed.



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlinerutankrd From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 2963 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14164 times:
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Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 22):
The test aircraft have been through SEA numerous times and it's one of the major airports in the U.S. that publicly stated they wouldn't be making the upgrades necessary to accommodate the A380 (not that anyone would send one there). How does that work? PAE, MWH, PDX, PMD and others have all seen the 748I on a regular basis and I'm not aware of any upgrades there...perhaps you could elaborate on the restrictions?

As you said TEST aircraft operating under Special license and as i said its nothing to do with runway length, but every thing to due with pavement weight limitations.

An in service flight with cargo and/or pax and full fuel will almost certainly impart those loads on taxiways so the airfields need to be prepared way beyond the runway !

Admittedly there are other considerations beyond pavement weight that needs consideration when handling the 388 and even at large airports such as Heathrow specific taxiways are poorly configured and special dedicated routes are necessary. These limitation may be less important with the 748i landing gear geometry.


User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3501 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14017 times:

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 23):
As you said TEST aircraft operating under Special license and as i said its nothing to do with runway length, but every thing to due with pavement weight limitations.

I understood the difference between runway length/pavement limits, I just don't completely understand why restrictions related to pavement load limits don't apply to test aircraft. Those sort of rules seem to be in place for the sake of the infrastructure at _______ airport and not the airplane itself so I don't see the reasoning behind a test airplane being exempt. Are they required to operate within certain weight limits? I'm sure that's probably not an issue most of the time, but at some point the plane is going to have to do test missions that simulate full loads...



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 14161 times:
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Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 24):
I understood the difference between runway length/pavement limits, I just don't completely understand why restrictions related to pavement load limits don't apply to test aircraft.

Are they required to operate within certain weight limits? I'm sure that's probably not an issue most of the time, but at some point the plane is going to have to do test missions that simulate full loads...


I would expect this is the case - the test aircraft is not operating at a weight that would affect the pavement or an occasional movement at such a weight would not immediately affect the pavement.

[Edited 2011-12-12 12:09:38]

25 Post contains links fpetrutiu : The limitation has nothing to do with weight and runway lenght. It has to to with its wingspan and clearace from other taxiways. The A380 has a longe
26 TJCAB : not sure I understand the relevance of the two articles posted
27 fpetrutiu : Issues with the longer wingspan vs the 748i. Quote: "The main problem with the A380 at LAX is that the Superjumbo's wingspan is just too wide for exi
28 Post contains links and images EPA001 : It is just not more versatile just because it can land on a couple of airports more then the A380 is allowed to do. Not true. This document from ACI
29 rjm777ual : QF doesn't have that kind of money anyway. To order it would be a waste of money, especially with 787's and A380's on the way.
30 zeke : QF is changing their focus from being a ultra long haul carrier to more Asian centric where middle east airlines find ti hard to compete. Asia has fa
31 Airvan00 : Ill Informed comment!!! QF one of the most profitable airlines in the world. If they wanted it they would order the 747-8I but they don't need it.
32 rjm777ual : I didn't know this! i thought they were in financial trouble!
33 sydscott : Um that's actually completely incorrect regarding the 787. There is no way QF International can operate without the 787 in 2021. You missed the "Addi
34 ClassicLover : Glad someone finally said it! I was looking down the posts and thinking - everyone is missing the QF 787!
35 qfa787380 : Correct. Additionally, these things are remarkably fluid and subject to much change. No doubt QF will consider the 737Max, 777NG and 350 for its flee
36 QFA380SYD : Definitely no way. They Qantas should order 777-300ER because theirs a big gape between the A380 and 787-9 its 300 pasanger diference. Also 777-300ER
37 BoeingVista : Yep, thats what it says so no 747-8I or 777NG (or A350) Only A380's (and only 14-20 of them) does not look like a sensible stratergy for Qantas inter
38 sydscott : I'll go out on a limb and say that I doubt QF will order the 737Max in any significant numbers. I think they'll wait until the proper 737 replacement
39 PC12Fan : Be careful, sometimes hell does freeze over. It's more than a couple. And your own quotes somewhat contradict your own point. I admit that I didn't d
40 American 767 : I was going to say the same thing. True, the 747s and 767s will be gone by 2021 but why would the 787 be gone as well? Do you think they would have o
41 tullamarine : Can you think of one other airlport in USA that QF would ever consider flyyng an A380 to in continental USA not included on this list?...I can't. BTW
42 MoltenRock : QF will get the 748 exactly 4 months after it orders the Comac C919..... or aka as NEVER!!!
43 BMI727 : Not a chance. I think it's even unlikely that they would order a 777-9X at this point. American placed a record setting order after years of bleeding
44 tullamarine : I agree that QF will serve int'l routes with the 787 in the future. I do believe that it is likely that these will not be Australian based planes or
45 sydscott : A couple of points; - the 787 won't have first class. :P - the 787 will be needed by QF for services to PVG, HKG, SIN and NRT which are squarely aime
46 gigneil : Yeah, that't not right at all. The list doesn't mention most of the ones that get planes now. Also, wherever someone wants to fly an A380, they'll ge
47 fpetrutiu : Which would those be? which airport not listed below gets regular scheduled A380 service now in the US? Anchorage International Airport Denver Intern
48 EK413 : Simple answer no... QF fleet will consist of the A380, A330, B787 & B73H... No room for the B747-8I... EK413
49 gigneil : Dulles? Houston has been loaded. ORD is also ready. ATL has announced they're basically ready. Detroit is ready. NS
50 qf002 : QF only cares if their VLA's can land in LHR, SIN, LAX, DFW, HKG and NRT (maybe JFK/JNB/SCL). They can? Oh good, that means your point is moot. Keep
51 EK413 : Seem I got it wrong! A380, A330 and B73H... EK413
52 koruman : Welcome to Qantas management!
53 vheca : I see the fleet strategy as akin to the QF of old (70's - 80's) where you see key trunk routes operated by the Flying Kangaroo (see all 747 QF fleet)
54 fpetrutiu : OK great, you just proven my point. There are only a handful of airports that can take the A380, the B748i can land everywhere with B744 minimums. An
55 Post contains images EPA001 : Two posts clearly state (with evidence from Boeing to back that up) that your claim is incorreect. Still it is again posted by you as if it were true
56 Burkhard : We still don't know if the Boeing claims that the 748I is within a few percent CASM of the A380, so about 10-15% better than the 77W, are true. If th
57 Post contains links and images QFA380SYD : So I think his saying that the biggest passanger plane ever is the same size as a 767 300. Theirs a very big difference you chose whats is bigger. Cl
58 travelhound : If I remember correctly Sydney airport also has operational restrictions when A380's are landing or taking off. Someone else might be able to shed mo
59 Flyingsottsman : There are 2 reasons why Qantas wont order the 748i 1 A very small long haul network 2 A380s and 787s. Like the 777 argument there is no room for them
60 Mikey86 : In QF's current route structure the 388 can land at any of its ports it serves on an international level, and most major Australian cities. But judgi
61 Post contains images 747m8te : But those figures for the A343 aren't really relavent to most modern airline layouts of today, what airline would cram 295 seats in a three class lay
62 jfk777 : Qantas needs to serve more long haul cities. Why no flights to Dubai ? With all that is going on there O & D demand has to exist for Australians.
63 vheca : People have argued about what routes, if any, QF will expand to and what they will use to do so. I share in the opinion that, if QF choose to explore
64 zeke : I did not miss that note at the bottom at all. Current QF plans as per that document does not indicate any 787s to QF international. I would be more
65 cmf : I'm sorry but no point made because the argument is flawed from the beginning. All that counts are the airports where airlines want to fly. So far th
66 United Airline : They will take all 20 A380s and will exercise the 4 options with additional orders I think. Altogther maybe 30. It is unliekly that they will order th
67 qf002 : Personally I see a few less than 30, but agree that more than 20 makes sense (depending on how the 787s end up going). And if the -900 is around by t
68 sydscott : Most of the pax to Dubai are connecting not O&D. SYD-SCL as SYD-EZE finishes. QF will rely on LAN to connect pax in South America from SCL. Agree
69 gemuser : RedQ aircraft? Gemuser
70 sydscott : A pipe dream that will still require 787's if they pull it off. (And that's a big if!)
71 RayChuang : I think it's likely that QF will buy more A380-800's to serve their very long routes to completely replace their 747-400's soon and 747-400ER's after
72 gemuser : It will NOT require B787s AT QF! That's the point, they will be at the Asian full service airline, NOT the Australian one. The QF Group still has abo
73 zeke : I agree, with Scoot starting up, I think the chances of more QF metal expanding is slim. Jetstar could operate some of those routes. I think on route
74 United Airline : If that's the case QF has ordered 20 firm and 4 options for the A380. It will be at least 24 if they exercise all options
75 sydscott : And I think you're wrong in that there WILL be B787's in QF international. The point is that there won't be a full service asian airline that can use
76 Zkpilot : exactly, half of them were involved with AN before it collapsed including one A. Joyce. Why grow an airline when you can strip it bare and slowly kil
77 koruman : It is astonishing that people do not see the utter incoherence of the Red Rooster plan. Let's be absolutely frank about Qantas. It no longer leads th
78 gemuser : Yes they either can with the current Australia/SIN bilateral or it is a relatively minor amendment. True it will require cooperation from the 3rd cou
79 zeke : I do not think HKG is somewhere QF International is looking at flying in the future. I would think FRA, NYC, MNL, CGK, BKK, PVG, HKG, BOM, JNB, HNL,
80 sydscott : I don't know. Hong Kong has been qute protective of its rights in the past and CX would lobby hard against it. Even with the prospect of pan Asian Op
81 AngMoh : QF themselves are not sure that there will be 787s in QF mainline international colours so why are you? All routes you mentioned are going to be Jets
82 koruman : Agree, except for the last phrase. Because I am pretty sure that the Qantas board wants to sell Jetstar for a nice, fat profit based upon dodgy accou
83 sydscott : And we're not sure how many 777's Scoot will end up with just that it will have them. Same principle. The difference is that QF has existing routes s
84 gemuser : But that was NOT the talk, the talk was of having a full service, high yielding and highly profitable domestic product backed up by a full service, h
85 EK413 : Qantas announced it was deferring six of its ten remaining A380 orders, until 2018-2021... You could be spot on... Finger's crossed they take deliver
86 qf002 : Disagree. In my opinion, HKG is as important for QF as SIN. QF probably has more passengers ending their journey in HKG than in SIN (bearing in mind
87 gemuser : Good Questions, I don't have the answers. I don't think it is intended to, but who knows. IMHO QF I think QF WILL operate B787s, but it is not imposs
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