Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Airbus Orders Backlog And Customes Wait Time  
User currently offlineAn225 From Israel, joined May 2005, 190 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 7830 times:

Hello all,
I am receiving Airbus's newsletter which announced the 7000th aircraft delivery to US Air (an A320). The article mentioned that Airbus has achieved this milestone two years after the delivery of the 6000th airframe. This means a production rate of an average 500 airframes per year.
Reading further on I learned that Airbus has delivered since its foundation 6,985 airframes with a backlog of 4,483 airframes. A quick calculation shows that at current production rate it will take Airbus almost 9 years to deliver the current orders in its book.

That brings me to some interesting questions:
1. Which airline is willing to wait so long for their orders?
2. Does Airbus includes in their order numbers both firm orders and non-firm orders?
3. If the answer to Q2 is yes, then how many orders are likely to be delivered? and,
4. Although different for each aircraft type, what is the actual wait time for an airline from signing a firm order till they receive their aircraft?

Thanks,

An225

15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineB777LRF From Luxembourg, joined Nov 2008, 1334 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 7589 times:

1: When an airline orders 20, 50, 100 or 200 of a type already in production, you may safely assume the deliveries will be spread over several to very many years, in line with the airline's growth and/or fleet replacement plans. If an airline orders equally large numbers of an aircraft that's still in development, a delivery schedule spanning more than a decade from time of order is not unusual at all. Even airlines ordering relatively small numbers may specify a delivery date 5 or more years into the future, if that's what the crystal ball in network planning says is the right thing to do. The answer to your question is therefore "Anyone who orders a fair chunk or with long-term plans".
2: Don't know
3: Question not understood
4: The delivery schedule to any single airline is not only driven by how fast a manufacturer can get the finished product out the door, as explained above.



From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
User currently offlineHeavierthanair From Switzerland, joined Oct 2000, 795 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7516 times:

G'day

Some annual production rates compiled from http://www.eads.com/dms/eads/int/en/...GIF-2011/FBregier%20GIF%202011.pdf

Model.....2011....2012....2013....2914....2015

320...........440......460......480......500......520
330.............92......103......115......115.......115
350...................................................20.........60
380.............26........30.........40........40.........40

Total.........558......593.......625......675......735

Some figures have been assumed (A350) and others extrapolated, they should be close though. While impressive and comfortable, the backlog is not as long as it appears to be. Most orders are staggered over several years, some up to 10 years. Also Airbus used the practice of overbooking its production line to compensate for airlines going out of business and for order cancellations.

So even though the production lines seem to be booked out there are windows to accommodate early deliveries for strategic customers, the recent order for AA comes to mind. There will be others for sure.

Cheers

Peter

[Edited 2011-12-18 02:42:26]


"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879
User currently offlineAn225 From Israel, joined May 2005, 190 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7392 times:

Thanks B777LRF and Heavierthanair for the answers.
It makes the whole thing much more understood

An225


User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1148 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7317 times:

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 2):

G'day

Some annual production rates compiled from http://www.eads.com/dms/eads/int/en/...GIF-2011/FBregier%20GIF%202011.pdf

Model.....2011....2012....2013....2914....2015

320...........440......460......480......500......520
330.............92......103......115......115.......115
350...................................................20.........60
380.............26........30.........40........40.........40

Total.........558......593.......625......675......735

Thanks! I have been looking for ust this data!!


User currently offlineRubberJungle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7247 times:

Quoting An225 (Thread starter):
A quick calculation shows that at current production rate it will take Airbus almost 9 years to deliver the current orders in its book.

It's not quite like that. When you take into account increased A320 production rates, the current A320 backlog would burn up by mid-2018, which is only six and a half years. Likewise the A330 backlog would run out in early 2015, the A380s in mid-2016.

That's purely based on production rates, not the agreed delivery times, but it's still a valid point I think. A simple production rate calculation also neglects to take into account the fact that deliveries in the second half of the decade will include brand new aircraft types.


User currently offlineAngMoh From Singapore, joined Nov 2011, 483 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 7084 times:

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 5):
It's not quite like that. When you take into account increased A320 production rates, the current A320 backlog would burn up by mid-2018, which is only six and a half years.

And if you read the latest EADS investor communication slides, it shows that the A320 is deliberately overbooked to take into account cancelled orders in order to keep production at the maximum capability of the line. So Airbus assumes that a certain percentage of the orders will be cancelled, and the further away the bookings are, the higher this percentage is.


User currently offlineExtra300 From Sweden, joined Sep 2011, 86 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6774 times:

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 2):
Model.....2011....2012....2013....2914....2015

320...........440......460......480......500......520
330.............92......103......115......115.......115
350...................................................20.........60
380.............26........30.........40........40.........40

Total.........558......593.......625......675......735

Thanks for this summary, very appreciated  

I think you are a little too optimistic on the A350. I expect maximum 10 frames to be delivered in 2014, and maybe 40 in 2015. Even for the A330 the numbers are a little high.
The total for 2011 is more like 520 aircraft.

After reading this thread and the link to the EADS document, I expect Airbus to reach 600 aircraft/year in 2014, or maybe even in 2013, which still is very impressive.

But 700/year seems far away, since I expect the A330 to decrease once the A350 is in the air, and harder competition on the single aisle market (Comac 919, and maybe even a 150 seater from Embraer)


User currently offlinedlphoenix From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 416 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5468 times:

Quoting An225 (Thread starter):
That brings me to some interesting questions:
1. ...
2. Does Airbus includes in their order numbers both firm orders and non-firm orders?
3. If the answer to Q2 is yes, then how many orders are likely to be delivered? and,

The answer to 2 is straight forward - publicly traded companies can only list firm orders.
What makes an order "firm" is subject to interpretation but in the case of Boeing and Airbus it involves not only a written commitment but also a down-payment.

Despite the answer to 2 there are cases where orders are canceled / converted to orders for different type etc. The rate depends mainly on the global economy and is therefore hard to predict.

DLP


User currently onlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13014 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3275 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 2):
Model.....2011....2012....2013....2914....2015

320...........440......460......480......500......520
330.............92......103......115......115.......115
350...................................................20.........60
380.............26........30.........40........40.........40

Total.........558......593.......625......675......735

Thank you for the numbers. IMHO, Airbus now needs to 'sell A330Fs' to keep those numbers up.
I have no worries on the A320, A350 (ok, EIS time... but that is normal today), or A380 sales to fill those slots.

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 5):
When you take into account increased A320 production rates, the current A320 backlog would burn up by mid-2018, which is only six and a half years. Likewise the A330 backlog would run out in early 2015, the A380s in mid-2016.

I'm posted again and again I believe A380 sales are hampered by long waits for aircraft.

The A330 needs fresh sales which will be tougher once the 787 and A350 enter 'mass production.' Unless FX orders freighters...   

Quoting Extra300 (Reply 7):
Even for the A330 the numbers are a little high.

They are Airbus' numbers.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinewimdemeester From Netherlands, joined Dec 2011, 17 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3189 times:

the backlog looks like 4483 for all types as per the end of November. But what would be a more realistic number if we take into consideration firm orders for for instance Grupo Marsans, Kingfisher, Kingfisher Red, America West, NW and UAL, Mandala and so on? The numbers for these and others count up and may represent several hundreds without almost any chance of delivery at all.

But having said that what remains is still to be considered an unprecedented number of certain orders!


User currently offlineUnited727 From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 399 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2925 times:

Quoting wimdemeester (Reply 10):
America West, NW

HUH???  Wow!

Do you mean US and DL?

[Edited 2011-12-19 19:02:52]


Looking for the impossible way to save those dying breeds!!!!
User currently offlineExtra300 From Sweden, joined Sep 2011, 86 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2806 times:

[

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
Quoting Extra300 (Reply 7):Even for the A330 the numbers are a little high.
They are Airbus' numbers.

You´re right about that, but still the total numbers a too high. It is not likely Airbus will produce 558 aircraft 2011. If we subtract 5-8% from the list I think we will be closer to reality. 520 is more likely for 2011

I don´t know if Airbus counts 12 productions month/year? Maybe 11 because of summer holidays?


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3389 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (2 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2787 times:

Quoting wimdemeester (Reply 10):
the backlog looks like 4483 for all types as per the end of November. But what would be a more realistic number if we take into consideration firm orders for for instance Grupo Marsans, Kingfisher, Kingfisher Red, America West, NW and UAL, Mandala and so on? The numbers for these and others count up and may represent several hundreds without almost any chance of delivery at all.

That is true but whilst a contract remains in place and Airbus is holding their deposits, then order is still firm.


User currently offlineRuscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1561 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (2 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 2633 times:

An interesting exercise with the Airbus backlog is the discrepency between stated value of unit backlog and actual sell price per unit.For 2010 I make it about 55million per unit.

Boeing also show a discrepency but it is in the region of 6 million a unit.

I realise that aircraft are not ordered and delivered in the same year, and the mix changes, but none the less interesting.

Ruscoe


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 8 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 2561 times:

Quoting Extra300 (Reply 12):
Maybe 11 because of summer holidays?

Yes the year has eleven months in France, plus 31 days of general shut down of everthing which is not global holiday.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Airbus Q1 Deliveries And Orders posted Wed Apr 6 2005 17:44:05 by PANAM_DC10
Qatar Airways News (Airbus Orders And New Routes) posted Sun Jun 2 2002 22:36:33 by QatarAirways
Rumor: Hawaiian To Cancel Airbus Orders. posted Wed Nov 16 2011 20:02:14 by nonfirm
Airbus Orders & Deliveries For August 2011 posted Tue Sep 6 2011 04:05:11 by PanAm_DC10
Airbus Orders & Deliveries 11/2010 posted Thu Dec 2 2010 11:33:31 by WINGS
Airbus Orders October 2010 posted Mon Nov 8 2010 03:27:29 by Flying-Tiger
Airbus Orders Slowing Down? posted Fri Oct 15 2010 00:24:37 by SKAirbus
Airbus A380 To Boston USA First Time posted Sat Feb 6 2010 09:09:11 by Aeroplaner
Airbus Orders January 2010 posted Thu Feb 4 2010 23:35:30 by Flying-Tiger
Turkish Orders A319s And A321s. posted Mon Jan 4 2010 07:17:22 by FCKC