An225 From Israel, joined May 2005, 165 posts, RR: 0 Posted (1 year 5 months 5 days ago) and read 6680 times:
Hello all,
I am receiving Airbus's newsletter which announced the 7000th aircraft delivery to US Air (an A320). The article mentioned that Airbus has achieved this milestone two years after the delivery of the 6000th airframe. This means a production rate of an average 500 airframes per year.
Reading further on I learned that Airbus has delivered since its foundation 6,985 airframes with a backlog of 4,483 airframes. A quick calculation shows that at current production rate it will take Airbus almost 9 years to deliver the current orders in its book.
That brings me to some interesting questions:
1. Which airline is willing to wait so long for their orders?
2. Does Airbus includes in their order numbers both firm orders and non-firm orders?
3. If the answer to Q2 is yes, then how many orders are likely to be delivered? and,
4. Although different for each aircraft type, what is the actual wait time for an airline from signing a firm order till they receive their aircraft?
B777LRF From Luxembourg, joined Nov 2008, 998 posts, RR: 3 Reply 1, posted (1 year 5 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 6439 times:
1: When an airline orders 20, 50, 100 or 200 of a type already in production, you may safely assume the deliveries will be spread over several to very many years, in line with the airline's growth and/or fleet replacement plans. If an airline orders equally large numbers of an aircraft that's still in development, a delivery schedule spanning more than a decade from time of order is not unusual at all. Even airlines ordering relatively small numbers may specify a delivery date 5 or more years into the future, if that's what the crystal ball in network planning says is the right thing to do. The answer to your question is therefore "Anyone who orders a fair chunk or with long-term plans".
2: Don't know
3: Question not understood
4: The delivery schedule to any single airline is not only driven by how fast a manufacturer can get the finished product out the door, as explained above.
From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
Some figures have been assumed (A350) and others extrapolated, they should be close though. While impressive and comfortable, the backlog is not as long as it appears to be. Most orders are staggered over several years, some up to 10 years. Also Airbus used the practice of overbooking its production line to compensate for airlines going out of business and for order cancellations.
So even though the production lines seem to be booked out there are windows to accommodate early deliveries for strategic customers, the recent order for AA comes to mind. There will be others for sure.
Cheers
Peter
[Edited 2011-12-18 02:42:26]
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879
RubberJungle From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2010, 287 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (1 year 5 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6097 times:
Quoting An225 (Thread starter): A quick calculation shows that at current production rate it will take Airbus almost 9 years to deliver the current orders in its book.
It's not quite like that. When you take into account increased A320 production rates, the current A320 backlog would burn up by mid-2018, which is only six and a half years. Likewise the A330 backlog would run out in early 2015, the A380s in mid-2016.
That's purely based on production rates, not the agreed delivery times, but it's still a valid point I think. A simple production rate calculation also neglects to take into account the fact that deliveries in the second half of the decade will include brand new aircraft types.
AngMoh From Singapore, joined Nov 2011, 320 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (1 year 5 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5934 times:
Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 5): It's not quite like that. When you take into account increased A320 production rates, the current A320 backlog would burn up by mid-2018, which is only six and a half years.
And if you read the latest EADS investor communication slides, it shows that the A320 is deliberately overbooked to take into account cancelled orders in order to keep production at the maximum capability of the line. So Airbus assumes that a certain percentage of the orders will be cancelled, and the further away the bookings are, the higher this percentage is.
I think you are a little too optimistic on the A350. I expect maximum 10 frames to be delivered in 2014, and maybe 40 in 2015. Even for the A330 the numbers are a little high.
The total for 2011 is more like 520 aircraft.
After reading this thread and the link to the EADS document, I expect Airbus to reach 600 aircraft/year in 2014, or maybe even in 2013, which still is very impressive.
But 700/year seems far away, since I expect the A330 to decrease once the A350 is in the air, and harder competition on the single aisle market (Comac 919, and maybe even a 150 seater from Embraer)
dlphoenix From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 412 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (1 year 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4318 times:
Quoting An225 (Thread starter): That brings me to some interesting questions:
1. ...
2. Does Airbus includes in their order numbers both firm orders and non-firm orders?
3. If the answer to Q2 is yes, then how many orders are likely to be delivered? and,
The answer to 2 is straight forward - publicly traded companies can only list firm orders.
What makes an order "firm" is subject to interpretation but in the case of Boeing and Airbus it involves not only a written commitment but also a down-payment.
Despite the answer to 2 there are cases where orders are canceled / converted to orders for different type etc. The rate depends mainly on the global economy and is therefore hard to predict.
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10668 posts, RR: 100 Reply 9, posted (1 year 5 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2125 times:
Thank you for the numbers. IMHO, Airbus now needs to 'sell A330Fs' to keep those numbers up.
I have no worries on the A320, A350 (ok, EIS time... but that is normal today), or A380 sales to fill those slots.
Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 5): When you take into account increased A320 production rates, the current A320 backlog would burn up by mid-2018, which is only six and a half years. Likewise the A330 backlog would run out in early 2015, the A380s in mid-2016.
I'm posted again and again I believe A380 sales are hampered by long waits for aircraft.
The A330 needs fresh sales which will be tougher once the 787 and A350 enter 'mass production.' Unless FX orders freighters...
Quoting Extra300 (Reply 7): Even for the A330 the numbers are a little high.
wimdemeester From Netherlands, joined Dec 2011, 12 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (1 year 5 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2039 times:
the backlog looks like 4483 for all types as per the end of November. But what would be a more realistic number if we take into consideration firm orders for for instance Grupo Marsans, Kingfisher, Kingfisher Red, America West, NW and UAL, Mandala and so on? The numbers for these and others count up and may represent several hundreds without almost any chance of delivery at all.
But having said that what remains is still to be considered an unprecedented number of certain orders!
Extra300 From Sweden, joined Sep 2011, 66 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (1 year 5 months 3 days ago) and read 1656 times:
[
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9): Quoting Extra300 (Reply 7):Even for the A330 the numbers are a little high.
They are Airbus' numbers.
You´re right about that, but still the total numbers a too high. It is not likely Airbus will produce 558 aircraft 2011. If we subtract 5-8% from the list I think we will be closer to reality. 520 is more likely for 2011
I don´t know if Airbus counts 12 productions month/year? Maybe 11 because of summer holidays?
scouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3254 posts, RR: 10 Reply 13, posted (1 year 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1637 times:
Quoting wimdemeester (Reply 10): the backlog looks like 4483 for all types as per the end of November. But what would be a more realistic number if we take into consideration firm orders for for instance Grupo Marsans, Kingfisher, Kingfisher Red, America West, NW and UAL, Mandala and so on? The numbers for these and others count up and may represent several hundreds without almost any chance of delivery at all.
That is true but whilst a contract remains in place and Airbus is holding their deposits, then order is still firm.
Ruscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1404 posts, RR: 2 Reply 14, posted (1 year 5 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 1483 times:
An interesting exercise with the Airbus backlog is the discrepency between stated value of unit backlog and actual sell price per unit.For 2010 I make it about 55million per unit.
Boeing also show a discrepency but it is in the region of 6 million a unit.
I realise that aircraft are not ordered and delivered in the same year, and the mix changes, but none the less interesting.
Sponsor Message: 
From Israel, joined May 2005, 165 posts, 
From Luxembourg, joined Nov 2008, 998 posts, 
From Switzerland, joined Oct 2000, 634 posts, 
From Norway, joined May 2006, 907 posts, 
From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2010, 287 posts, 
From Singapore, joined Nov 2011, 320 posts, 
From Sweden, joined Sep 2011, 66 posts, 
From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 412 posts, 
From Netherlands, joined Dec 2011, 12 posts, 
From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1404 posts, 
From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4248 posts, 
Printer friendly format 
){kind=link}