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Future Of BA's 744 And 77W Fleets.  
User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4467 posts, RR: 5
Posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15212 times:

Over the past 2-3 years, we have seen British Airway's 777-300ER fleet expand while the 747-400 fleet has shrunken and then expanded. Hopefully, someone can answer my following questions;

777-300ER
1. What are BA's thoughts on the 77W so far?
2. What are the future fleet plans?


747-400
1. What are BA's thoughts on the 744 at this time?
2. What are the future fleet plans?


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
57 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2104 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 15065 times:

77W - six in service by Apr '12, with two on order for Winter '13/'14.

744 - 53 in service by Apr '12, with two stored (and two have just been scrapped).

Future fleet plans were were 744 fleet to start coming down as the A380 comes into service, as well as the 787 (latter replaces 777 on some routes, with 777 replacing 744 elsewhere).

However, the potential IAG purchase of BD could change this short term, as it was stated that some of the BD slots could be used to allow BA to add service to Asia and Latin America. Now some of thsi could be achieved by keeping the 763 around longer than planned, with the 777/787 fleet juggled about. Or it could be that more 744s stay around longer, with again 787/777 fleet juggled around (or a combo of both).

A number of 744s will leave the fleet this decade, but what comes in to replace them remains to be seen.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlinebennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7817 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 15019 times:

The B747-436s scrapped at Cardiff were G-BNLB and G-BNLC.

User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8517 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 14943 times:
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While BA has A380 and 787 on order they do not have enough to replace 53 747-400's. Some were delivered as late as 1999 so prhaps only 30 need to be retired soon. BA has 12 A380 ordered so there will be a reorder. 24 787's is more a 767 replacement. BA needs another 20 787-9's and 30 777 NG's.

User currently onlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14571 times:

Guess BA will order up to 30-40 A380s at the very end. They will certainly go beyond the 12+9 they ordered

User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4009 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 14426 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR

I don't know if they'll order as many as 40 A380s but they'll more probably order more 77Ws to replace the 744s. Because I don't think that all the intercontinental routes where BA flies the 744 will be so profitable with A380 equipment, on some of the long haul routes the 77W would be a better fit. I don't think they'll go for the 747-8i.

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently onlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 6, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 14243 times:

So maybe 35 A380s or so.

User currently onlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2847 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 14223 times:
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747-8 anybody? Though unlikely a guy can dream can't he?
Blue



All of the opinions stated above are mine and do not represent Airliners.net or my employer unless otherwise stated.
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12599 posts, RR: 34
Reply 8, posted (3 years 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 14100 times:

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
747-8 anybody? Though unlikely a guy can dream can't he?

And I can dream about EI A380s as well! The result will be the same.

I think BA is taking a cautious approach; it is not buying a large number of 77Ws. It may acquire more, but it will probably be 2 or 3 at a time. It's an ideal replacement for some of the older 744s.

There are a lot of calculations for BA to take into account, not least the economic situation. It doesn't want to buy 30-40 77Ws and then find that the economy goes seriously south. Also, it doesn't want to buy a large number of a particular type, only to find that it is outdated after a few years; the airline will be looking at types such as the 787-10 and A350-900/1000 as a long term long haul solution.


User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2721 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 13890 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 6):
So maybe 35 A380s or so.

Probably not.

I see BA sticking to the 77W to replace the 744 on routes that don't quite fill them while maintaining frequencies.
The A380 is a tool to free up some slots by reducing frequencies on routes that don't need them. But it's not the one to one replacement for the 744 people think it is.



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 13722 times:

Quoting garpd (Reply 9):
The A380 is a tool to free up some slots by reducing frequencies on routes that don't need them. But it's not the one to one replacement for the 744 people think it is.
BA was swapping it's 744 orders for 777's even while they were still being delivered. And that was years ago.

So with great regret that's one of the reasons why I don't think we'll see a 748-i in BA livery. With the aircraft that are available today the 748 is neither one thing nor the other to BA.

The 'worlds favourite airline' days are long gone due to increased competition and therefore BA doesn't look for the ''bums on seats'' capacity in a large number of aircraft in its fleet that it used to.

However there are so many high yielding 'passenger voluminous' O&D routes from London and given capacity issues at LHR (even with BD slots) I think it fair to assume that we will see a reasonable amount of A380's sporting the crest !!

[Edited 2011-12-21 01:04:36]


Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently onlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (3 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 13499 times:

I believe they will order more A380s still. Maybe up to 30. But I doubt they will go for the B 747-8. They almost did

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7743 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 13293 times:

As recently as November IAG published their future fleet plans for both BA and IB on Slide 17 at:

International Airlines Group Investor Presentation (by LHRFlyer Nov 11 2011 in Civil Aviation)

For the BA long haul fleet this slide includes actual aircraft numbers for 2011 and the planned aircraft numbers for 2016. They are as follows:

744. 2011: 52. 2016: 45

763. 2011: 14. 2016: 1

777. 2011: 49. 2016: 54

787. 2011: 0. 2016: 16

380. 2011: 0. 2016: 9

318. 2011: 2. 2016: 2

The slide also identifies that the retirement of the 744s and 763s is "flexible" whether the aircraft are owned or leased.

As can be seen there is a small planned expansion in the long haul fleet. 13 763s will be replaced by 16 787s. 7 744s will be replaced by 9 380s. In addition 5 777s will be added to the long haul fleet.

Whether or not the above data will be modified if IAG buy BD remains to be seen. But if it is it will presumably result in fewer 744 and long-haul 763 retirements by 2016.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (3 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 13286 times:

My prediction -- move towards using A380 aircraft on extremely high traffic routes (ie where lots of Y demand exists alongside F/J demand), and either 77W or A35J on pretty much every other current 744 route.

So in total, around 20 A380's flying to South Africa, a couple of North American destinations and a couple of Asian destinations. Then around 40 77W/A35J's to cover the rest of the world. Any reduction in capacity can be offset by opening up more destinations using smaller aircraft (787).


User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 13159 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
Whether or not the above data will be modified if IAG buy BD remains to be seen

If the BD purchase does go ahead maybe Boeing (given the empty dancy card of the 748i) could knock out a few 748's to BA on the cheap ?



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (3 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 13163 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
While BA has A380 and 787 on order they do not have enough to replace 53 747-400's. Some were delivered as late as 1999 so prhaps only 30 need to be retired soon. BA has 12 A380 ordered so there will be a reorder. 24 787's is more a 767 replacement. BA needs another 20 787-9's and 30 777 NG's.

I think it is dangerous to assume each plane going out is replaced by something else.

It is better to look at the fleet composition a constantly changing goal with extremely slow adoption. As such each plane leaving or being added is better looked at as an isolated event leading towards the fleet composition goal.

The fleet goal of course is based on the "dream" schedule and the current schedule is largely influenced by the current fleet. Constant interactions between them decides what is being ordered and what goes out.

In summary; don't try to predict orders based on current fleet.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31439 posts, RR: 85
Reply 16, posted (3 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 13123 times:
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Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
747-8 anybody?

BA could always reverse their position, but right now they are said to be firmly not interested in the 747-8 after deciding in favor of the A380-800.



Quoting mikey72 (Reply 14):
If the BD purchase does go ahead maybe Boeing (given the empty dancy card of the 748i) could knock out a few 748's to BA on the cheap ?

If BA does decide to add the 747-8 to their fleet, information I have been made privy to states categorically it will not be because of price. And since that is about the one thing the 747-8 has over the A380-800, see my comment above.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8517 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (3 years 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 13044 times:
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Quoting cmf (Reply 15):
I think it is dangerous to assume each plane going out is replaced by something else.

It is better to look at the fleet composition a constantly changing goal with extremely slow adoption. As such each plane leaving or being added is better looked at as an isolated event leading towards the fleet composition goal.

The fleet goal of course is based on the "dream" schedule and the current schedule is largely influenced by the current fleet. Constant interactions between them decides what is being ordered and what goes out.

In summary; don't try to predict orders based on current fleet.

CMF,

Its BA who ordered 12 A380, 24 787 and 6 77W's. Its NOT a big assumption to know they have 57 744( BA's number NOT mine). They need to be replaced, if they only have 12 A380's that means there will very likey be a second and perhaps even a third A380 order.

24 787 are a 767 replacement. The 77W's are also replacing 744's. One does NOT need a PhD fron MIT to figure this out. Happy New Year to you.


User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2721 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (3 years 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 12987 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Its BA who ordered 12 A380, 24 787 and 6 77W's. Its NOT a big assumption to know they have 57 744( BA's number NOT mine). They need to be replaced, if they only have 12 A380's that means there will very likey be a second and perhaps even a third A380 order.

They could just as easily order more 77Ws. It doesn't have to be the A380 that gets re-ordered.



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineLofty From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2008, 323 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (3 years 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 12857 times:

An issue that has not been raised is the lack of A380 / B747-8 stands at LHR T5.

User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (3 years 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 12596 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
One does NOT need a PhD fron MIT to figure this out. Happy New Year to you.

One does not. But I'm sure said PhD would have understood my post.


User currently offlineNCFC99 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 754 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (3 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 11774 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
For the BA long haul fleet this slide includes actual aircraft numbers for 2011 and the planned aircraft numbers for 2016. They are as follows:

744. 2011: 52. 2016: 45

763. 2011: 14. 2016: 1

777. 2011: 49. 2016: 54

787. 2011: 0. 2016: 16

380. 2011: 0. 2016: 9

318. 2011: 2. 2016: 2



I think it's pretty certain, IMHO that all options on both the 787 (was it another 24?) and A380 (7) will be taken up. This , along with maybe a few more 77W's should cover fleet replacement up until 2020. BA stated at the time of ordering that some 787's are to replace 747's. I assume with some fleet shuffling and right sizing planes to match routes and seasons will cover this. After 2020 the next batch of replacements will need to start arriving. The rest of the 747's and the 77E will start to be replaced in the first half of the decade. The big question is which planes will be ordered to be delivered in the 2020's. More A380's for a fleet of 30ish and more 787's for a fleet of 60-70 with a third type in between, 30-40 777NGs or A350s. This is how I see the BA fleet at the end of the 2020's.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8517 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (3 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 11775 times:
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Quoting cmf (Reply 20):
One does not. But I'm sure said PhD would have understood my post.
Quoting cmf (Reply 15):
I think it is dangerous to assume each plane going out is replaced by something else.

It is better to look at the fleet composition a constantly changing goal with extremely slow adoption. As such each plane leaving or being added is better looked at as an isolated event leading towards the fleet composition goal.

The fleet goal of course is based on the "dream" schedule and the current schedule is largely influenced by the current fleet. Constant interactions between them decides what is being ordered and what goes out.

In summary; don't try to predict orders based on current fleet.

CMF,

I understood your post, sir. You are correct in "each plane leaving or being added is...towards the fleet compostion goal" . Rather fancy way of saying a plane gets delivered and one leaves.

"Its dangerous to assume each plane going out is replaced by somethingelse" ? Why ? Old planes leave and get replaced in an expanding fleet. BA is not shrinking the fleet, its replacing planes like 744 with 77W and soon A380's.

"In summary: don't try to predict orders based on the current fleet" I am not, BA long ago ordered A380, its done.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7743 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (3 years 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 11513 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Its NOT a big assumption to know they have 57 744( BA's number NOT mine).

BA's current figure is 55 744s. On 22 November they started to break up G-BNLC at CWL. Then on 5 December they started to break up G-BNLB. Scroll down here

http://cardiffstathan.blogspot.com/search?q=g-bnlb

to see what little remained of 'LB just two days later.


User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (3 years 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 10478 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 23):
BA's current figure is 55 744s.

Says 61 on BA's Wikipedia page. God knows what that's all about.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 23):
On 22 November they started to break up G-BNLC at CWL. Then on 5 December they started to break up G-BNLB.

Such an unceremonious ending !

(Drifting away...I often wondered why they didn't put a Concorde inside Terminal 5 ??)



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
25 cmf : I'm sorry but with that you made absolutely clear you did not understand. It is a fallacy to assume fleet size is constant. Let's see if a practical
26 Post contains images GBLKD : Yep, R.I.P "never leaves base" G-BOAB was supposed to be the focal point for T5 however she's still full of pallets of "Highlife" mags for ballast an
27 Ychocky : The B747-8i does not require any modifications as the Boeing design from the beginning was to utilize the the B747 equipment already deployed around
28 qf002 : 1. The length of the 748i would likely be the issue in T5's case. While LHR can support the aircraft, the terminals have not been designed to. 2. At
29 mikey72 : What cost ?
30 Ychocky : Good point, I remember the hub bub about the "NO GO" areas on the LHR field for the A380, I suppose now with the B748i now certified and additional d
31 jackowilkinson : I was waiting for someone to suggest that! Why replace old 744s with other types when Boeing have just bought out a new 747?! I'm quite sure BA will
32 cmf : The real question is how difficult it is to make more gates capable. Construction costs Space that needs to be added during construction that may or
33 Post contains images mikey72 : Oh I see.....
34 jfk777 : CMF, I never said 50 744 were getting replaced by 50 A380 or 50 77W's. I realize that 50 744 may get replaced by more then 50 planes or less then 50
35 Post contains images AirbusA6 : On that basis you'd never order a brand new type ever, and BA would now be operating Comet 10s, Trident 12bs, 707NGs and Super Super VC10s! Which wou
36 Babybus : That would be an incredible sight. They could always buy a couple and lease them out? More like to even the competition out between existing A380 ope
37 mikey72 : Well the most important market to BA is the USA and as it stands at the moment BA will be the only carrier operating the A380 for a while to this gre
38 cmf : You should use the business plan to predict future orders. Not size of current fleet. Hope that clarifies the disagreement.
39 Clarkee82 : T5C has 7 A380 gates with triple jetways & T5B has 3/4 A380 gates with double jetways. BA are also expanding back into T3 to a small extent so th
40 Babybus : I think you'll find that every market is important for BA especially when it relies so heavily on transfer traffic. As you say, BA will need A380s to
41 bennett123 : IMO, most will accept an A330/350 or B767/777/787. Generally, they will not even notice.
42 OldAeroGuy : This is true only if you qualify it with "from the UK". Air France, Emirates, Lufthansa, and Qantas all operate A380's to the US
43 Post contains images qf002 : Thanks for that I still have my reservations about a fleet of more than 20-30 frames though, as I don't see them actively moving long haul flights ou
44 Speedbird2155 : Any A380 capable gate can also accomodate the 747-8i so all the gates/stands in T5 that are designed for the A380 can be used. As has been noted, the
45 garpd : If a terminal can handle the 77W, 744 and A380, it can certainly handle the 748. Good god, I hope not. The EK product is garish and very, very tacky
46 qf002 : That may be the case, but I was simply refuting the idea that if the 744 can use it then the 748i can as well. That's not always the case, and if it
47 mikey72 : I know...that's why I said ''most'' important market. If there is an ''A380 effect'' on markets then the UK/US market for BA should get a boost if th
48 iainbhx : I think this mornings news will keep some 744's around for a few years longer than planned.
49 garpd : What news?
50 VV701 : It is worth bearing in mind that if you include the cost of the aircraft in "operating costs" - and it is diffiucult to operate a flight without one
51 RTFM : IAG has just reached agreement with LH to buy BD.
52 NCFC99 : What implications will this have on the fleet plan? Are all BMI aircraft leased or do they own some? Are the 330's owned or leased? I'd love to see a
53 CX747 : With IAG seeing an increase in slots at LHR, could a call be be placed by BA to pull their remaining 744s out of desert storage?
54 robso2 : It was in their December HIgh Life magazine
55 audidudi : Don't forget Korean Airlines also.
56 American 767 : With the exception of Qantas, they all fly the A380 to JFK. I'm sure BA will. In one day, you can spot 3 A380s at JFK, if not 4. I'm sure that in LHR
57 qf002 : And SQ.
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