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Why No JFK-SYD Service?  
User currently offlinenycdave From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 546 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 21061 times:

I'm going to ask what might WELL BE a really stupid question, but my curiosity got the best of me...

Why is there no direct SYD-JFK service? Shouldn't that be inside the envelope for the 77L, and maybe just a squeaker for the 345? Or are there issues, capability-wise I missed or don't understand? It seems like, if it were possible, it'd be a surefire winner given the number of Aussies in NYC, and the global banking connections... GC Mapper gives a route of under 8700nmi, and all the wikis give a 77L design range of over 9300nmi...

83 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinedeltaflyertoo From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 1642 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 21086 times:

JFK to SYD is probably around 21 hours nonstop. There is no airliner that can do a 21 hour flight. I believe the longest flight out there is 18 hours, maybe 19? (Maybe I stand corrected).

User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6761 posts, RR: 76
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 20975 times:

1. It'll fly more distance than the Great Circle line... 8700 can be 8800 - 9000nm once you put everything in (although 8800 is more likely)
2. Wind. It may work going one way, but not on the way back. A 40kt headwind component over 8500nm already makes your net air distance 9300nm or so... Which will give you a maximum OEW of around 185 tons... which is only about 40 tons... (so not much cargo eh?)
3. "You need fuel to carry the fuel you use later on in the flight"... ie: expensive... around 130 tons each way give or take a few tons... which is about 10 tons more fuel than if you make it a 1 stop flight (and 1 stop allows it much much more payload capability).

But, that doesn't mean it won't work!   
The other issues is introducing a new type... where else can the 777-200LR be used for the airline.



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8541 posts, RR: 13
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 20964 times:
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I think you have to bear in mind that QF can barely make a daily A330 into JFK work even though it gets fed at LAX by flights from AKL/MEL/BNE and SYD, I really don't see how a theoretical SYD-JFK would work even if there was an aircraft capable of operating it.


Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 20839 times:

With so many one stop competition via LAX, DFW, SFO, DXB........ It will be a loss making route almost for sure....

Remember that SQ flight SIN-NYC is on a only Business class configuration, that´s why they do, otherwise yields wouldn´t allow to make a decent profit.
Crew and aircraft rotation is very expensive in this long routes.

I don´t think any airline is in the position to obtain almost 70-100 business class pax flying non-stop from SYD to NYC.

Some city pairs are just impossible, not only for the distance but also because of the competition. Another example SYD-LHR....


User currently offlinewn700driver From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 20736 times:

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 2):
A 40kt headwind component over 8500nm already makes your net air distance 9300nm or so...

While I certainly have no reason to dispute your claim, I'd like to know what formula you used to come up with those numbers. Just curious...


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2948 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 20226 times:

It takes just as long to go via LAX at the end of the day. 5 hours across the US then a couple of hours and a 13-14 hour Pacific crossing. Add to that the enormous cost of ULH travel, the fact that the corporate ties aren't that significant and the stigma that SYD has for pax in MEL, BNE etc. It's much more efficient and effective to hub on the West Coast, with the single flight feeding into SYD, MEL, BNE, AKL.

User currently offlinerafvc10 From Spain, joined Sep 2005, 1980 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 20209 times:
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Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 1):
I believe the longest flight out there is 18 hours, maybe 19? (Maybe I stand corrected).

You're not wrong... Longest non-stop scheduled flight is SQ from SIN to EWR with 18 hours and 50 minutes of average flight.

Gerard



El dia que los gilipollas vuelen, no podremos ver la luz del sol!
User currently offlineEK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 4856 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 20142 times:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-stop_flight

Singapore - Newark being the longest route to date with Los Angeles - Singapore in second place and Sydney - Dallas third...

EK413



Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
User currently offlineHKG212 From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2008, 144 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 19697 times:

Quoting migair54 (Reply 4):
I don´t think any airline is in the position to obtain almost 70-100 business class pax flying non-stop from SYD to NYC.

It does seem like a stretch, but then again I always thought the SQ all-biz SIN-EWR service was a stretch, but it's been going on for, what, 4-5 years now?...

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 3):
I think you have to bear in mind that QF can barely make a daily A330 into JFK work

Interesting, I was not aware that QF droppped the 3X weekly 744 in favor of a daily A330 on LAX-JFK. Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?


User currently offlineAustrianZRH From Austria, joined Aug 2007, 1362 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 19376 times:

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 5):
While I certainly have no reason to dispute your claim, I'd like to know what formula you used to come up with those numbers. Just curious...

Flying time in still air*headwind component speed.

If you assume a 8500 nm flying distance at a ground speed of 550 mph, this gives you a flying time just below 18 hours. Multiply that by a headwind component of 40 knots, and you get the equivalent additional distance, in the case of my calc approximately 712 nm.

Would be my way to calculate it.

[Edited 2011-12-27 04:17:02]

[Edited 2011-12-27 04:17:55]


WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
User currently offlinestaralliance85 From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 201 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 18514 times:

It would be interesting to see a UA 787 EWR-SYD All Business Class. But that is highly unlikely because UA is going to start IAH-AKL so their partner Air New Zealand can offer great connections throughout NZ/AUS. From NYC, there are so many connecting cities that have service to SYD such as LAX, SFO,DFW, YVR, DXB and AUH.


brad Fitzpatrick
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3204 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 17952 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Reply 11):
All Business Class. But that is highly unlikely because UA is going to start IAH-AKL so their partner Air New Zealand can offer great connections throughout NZ/AUS.

you seem to have forgotten that united already fly Direct to Australia, sending people to Houston and then New Zealand would be a downgrade. No net advantage over existing services. UAL needs to go IAH - Aust nonstop to get an advantage. But they can already do most of this from SFO. If they really want the upper hand, they should start SFO - BNE and SFO - MEL nonstop, allowing one stop from all major US markets via their hub. DFW works for QF because AA doesn't have a true hub at LAX. UAL however is in a different situation at SFO. Oh and I wouldn't get too keen on NZ helping with the connections. This IAH flight will undermine their LAX and SFO flights so they will not be happy chappy's at all.


User currently offlineordjoe From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 17868 times:

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
in favor of a daily A330 on LAX-JFK. Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?

I thought it was basically a way to keep that bird in the air, keep in mind QF's planes arrive in the morning and early afternoon in LAX and do not leave until late evening. I do though think there is a certain degree of prestige involved though.


User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2863 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 17618 times:
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An 18+ hour flight is hard to do for most humans in Y. I always take p.s to SFO and then onto SYD. The break is a much welcome, stretch your legs etc. Even in C or F to Sydney (or SIN) I prefer the break! I haven't done the SQ from EWR to SIN just for that reason alone, as wonderful as SQ is.

However you question begs A and B for a lighter, midsize sub orbital solution  



The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 17464 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 12):
If they really want the upper hand, they should start SFO - BNE and SFO - MEL nonstop, allowing one stop from all major US markets via their hub.

Agreed, but both could exist.

SFO-SYD/MEL/BNE trio for the major city 1-stop to Australia, then the IAH-AKL for 2nd-tier cities connection (connects to smaller ones like Adelaide, Perth, Cairns, etc).

Keep SFO-SYD on at least 772 size. Make the rest 787. LAX-SYD is the wildcard - with that much capacity, maybe UA should chase yields not volume.

ps : IAH-SYD is not crucial for UA since they have a proper hub in SFO already. Save those planes for SFO-Asia and IAH/EWR to South America

[Edited 2011-12-27 06:45:32]

User currently offlinefruitbat From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2006, 549 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 17384 times:

Quoting VC10er (Reply 14):
However you question begs A and B for a lighter, midsize sub orbital solution  

You mean one of these?

http://www.eads.com/eads/int/en/news/press.20110621_eads_zehst.html



Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals ... except the weasel.
User currently offlinegabrielz From United States of America, joined May 2004, 74 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 17384 times:

There is certainly enough premium O&D traffic to support an all-biz class flight daily NYC-SYD. The carriers currently historically serving the route however, lacked the ULH motivation - until now. CO management is very sensitive to the idea of providing good nonstop service from EWR to capture corporate contracts and premium flyers. Once the combined UA has a chance to absorb the route structure, pax demand and new aircraft orders, they will add more long-haul service at EWR.

All that having been said, only DL today has the aircraft with the legs to do the route, and they would need 3-4 77L to make it work.


User currently onlinezrs70 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 3122 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 16617 times:

Even if an aircraft could do it, would anyone really want to be in the plane that long?


14 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2013
User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 16570 times:

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
It does seem like a stretch, but then again I always thought the SQ all-biz SIN-EWR service was a stretch, but it's been going on for, what, 4-5 years now?...

Correct, but SQ has a lot of regional feeder flights from south east asia, however any other carrier on the SYD-NYC will have very few feeder flights in both ends because they possibility to go to LAX, SFO, DFW or IAH in the future and then fly to Australia BNE, SYD, MEL... Imagine business class pax flying from MEM or MCI to SYD... they can easily go to the destination avoiding a 20 hours flight...

I´m sure in the future we will see more flights out IAH and DFW to Australia offering excellent connexions to the most part of the USA, Mexico and Canada. However I don´t think we will see NYC-SYD flight.

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 17):
All that having been said, only DL today has the aircraft with the legs to do the route, and they would need 3-4 77L to make it work.

That´s why to make the flight they must be sure that it´s going to be a huge success, because dedicate so many planes and crews to do it will be very very expensive.


User currently offlineetops1 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1068 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 16286 times:

Can the A380 do it ??

User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 16152 times:

Quoting etops1 (Reply 20):
Can the A380 do it ??

No with a good load.


User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6761 posts, RR: 76
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 15656 times:

Quoting wn700driver (Reply 5):
While I certainly have no reason to dispute your claim, I'd like to know what formula you used to come up with those numbers. Just curious...

777-200LR FCOM Performance Dispatch - Enroute, "LRC with Step Climb" (the 0.84M numbers are... err... worse I think... don't have it open in front of me at the moment). I just took some rough numbers... so they're by no means precise.

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17051 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 15156 times:

Quoting zrs70 (Reply 18):
Even if an aircraft could do it, would anyone really want to be in the plane that long?

Well if you want to go from JFK to SYD there is no other way than spending that much time in a airplane.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8541 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 14835 times:
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Quoting gabrielz (Reply 17):
There is certainly enough premium O&D traffic to support an all-biz class flight daily NYC-SYD.

Can you back that up with figures or is that just a gut feeling?

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 9):
Not sure what the advantage is vs. feeding into AA's frequent 762 LAX-JFK service. Just a matter of prestige?

The advantage is providing a halfway decent product to their customers ( I say 'halfway decent' because the A330 operating the sector still has the obsolete Mark I sloping Skybed and also lacks premium economy)



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
25 richierich : B747 is right - and some ultra long haul flights are in the air that long or almost that long now. So I don't think that is the argument. And logical
26 Ben175 : Just out of curiosity here, I know it is completely out of this world and never going to happen, but would a 77L be able to fly PER-LAX in a 3-class c
27 kiwiandrew : Fair enough, we are all entitled to our opinions, but the reason I asked was because you said: To me, that sounded more like a statement of fact than
28 sunrisevalley : QF was within a heart beat of ordering the 77L for SYD-NYC service a few years ago. Well connected insiders said that it was a done deal. Not sure wha
29 sunrisevalley : Assuming 30k winds on the nose, westbound, and standard fuel capacity the payload would be something in the order of 32t which would be about max pas
30 Viscount724 : Those range figures don't consider winds or cargo, just passengers and baggage. You have to add up to 15% to get a real world range figure when looki
31 mariner : I guess it wasn't a done deal. I can't imagine there would be enough traffic to support SYD-JFK as a non-stop. The majority of Australians doing busi
32 flylku : I thought the SQ flight from New York to Singapore always heads eastbound to take advantage of the prevailing winds in the Northern Hemisphere. Can a
33 koruman : The problem is a lack of demand. The Business / First Class market NYC-SYD would probably be around 8-10 passengers per day - the rest of the passenge
34 sunrisevalley : It was probably the same proponents of the SYD-LHR non-stop service.
35 777STL : Not only that, but I would imagine that it would be difficult to make such a route economically viable even *if* you had a technically capable aircra
36 FlyboyOz : I would not imagine that I would like to stay inside the aircraft for over 20 hours. Too long to get there and It's not good for our healthy! Less th
37 B747forever : Yes, it might be many hours, but there is no other way if you want to get from JFK to SYD. There is no way that you can make the journey time shorter
38 aviateur : A couple of things here. First, be wary when citing mileage stats when it comes to aircraft range. It's not about miles, it's about HOURS. And hours
39 The Coachman : While true, you could route the flight as an international flight between the MEL and SYD international terminals and you get over this problem at SY
40 Post contains images cbrboy : Most Australians and Americans I know who have experienced US domestic airline service vs QF service will pay extra to travel QF.
41 cschleic : True, although in some cases, airlines have had to wait for the right plane to come along. SQ waited years for a plane that could do LAX - SIN non-st
42 slcdeltarumd11 : Theres certainly a demand for the route its just that there isn't enough of a demand that is willing to pay a premium to make it worth it. In fact i b
43 gegtim : As a huge fan of Concorde, why couldn't that aircraft have left JFK and flown over Canadian air space where it could achieve supersonic speed to go to
44 kiwiandrew : Concorde was far too short ranged to manage that. By the time you add in all the extra fuel stops I doubt if it would end up much quicker than going
45 Post contains images nycdave : None of the 787 have a design range in the same ULH neighborhood of the 77L and 345. Although, then, you have to ask why there's a DFW-SYD route -- t
46 thegeek : I would cite QF's performance on both BNE-LAX and SYD-DFW as counter examples. In both cases QF was very reluctant to start the route but it performe
47 solarflyer22 : Great, question. I have often wondered how you could accomplish this route and I believe its called "The Kangaroo Route". I even thought of including
48 nycdave : Not to fan any unneccessary flames, but Airbus has suggested that the A359-R would have a fully loaded range of over 10,000nmi -- plenty to accomplish
49 Post contains images mandala499 : I see that several references were made to "if SIN-EWR/LAX can do it, why not SYD-JFK?" Well... SQ has a nice large market feeding it long haulpax to
50 5MillionMiler : Actually, Virgin was. They were looking at 5 777LRs for SYD-JFK and PER-LHR. Never happened. I have dealt a lot with Qantas management and am not awa
51 Post contains images mandala499 : I just had another look... if on the way back the air distance is 9300nm... Once you start adding pax (I use 300 seats in 3-class), catering (and I c
52 ferminbrif : I guess you mean "NON-STOP"???. So, the answer would be pretty obvious as some guys said above: too far away.....
53 koruman : You should see the number of Aussie leisure travellers in Hawaii and Los Angeles then! I went to Hawaii four times this year, and one of them was jus
54 emirates202 : What airline do you think, if possible would do it? DL is the first that pops in to my head
55 nycdave : I said pax PREFER n/s... how much they'll pay for it is largely dependent on the market. In general budget travelers will pay a relatively small prem
56 sunrisevalley : Not surprising. A westbound flight plan summary posted on this site by SX1899 for PER-LHR showed a 19hr gate to gate time for a 77L. This is an ESAD
57 mandala499 : I was using the eastbound to respond to flyku, and that should anyone has an idea of going back eastbound... it's not worth it. As challenging as JFK
58 LONGisland89 : I'm afraid the only way we'll see JFK-SYD nonstop will be with low-earth orbit, scram-jet type aircraft that can make the trip in 1-3 hours. Maybe in
59 Post contains links and images lightsaber : This route will happen someday. *After* a non-stop SYD-LHR. They have the 77Ls... The only plane that might be able to make the route profitable. But
60 DIRECTFLT : I wouldn't want to be on a Jet Liner for that long. Maybe you get used to it, but the 10 1/2 hours I spent coming from FRA to DFW in Bus. class was a
61 Post contains images mariner : I won't do it anymore. About seven hours is it for me. mariner
62 gemuser : So you only go to the states via HNL and to Europe via the states? How practical/economic does that work out? Gemuser
63 mariner : I will always give myself a break on some tropical island on the way to the US from NZ. Not just Hawaii - it could also be Fiji or Samoa or Tahiti. I
64 skyduster : I think your question is why no direct SYD-NYC, as people often forget about EWR...NYC's other int'l airport. Anyways, there already is a direct SYD-
65 thegeek : By your definition there isn't a direct flight SYD-JFK as it is an equipment varies flight.
66 gemuser : How do you manage NZ - Europe with one stopover AND keep within your 7 hour sector limit? Gemuser
67 zrs70 : Not exactly correct. In fact, most direct flights do require plane changes these days. More often than not, there is an equipment change as well. And
68 747400sp : There is one answer to this, range.
69 mariner : I think I said "at least" one stopover. But it is easy enough to do the journey and avoid long-range non-stops. mariner
70 LAXintl : Since everyone seems to be focused on aircraft technical issues, lets also look at the potential underlying demand for any such service. So here are s
71 Post contains links koruman : I agree with all of LAXintl's points until this last one, which incorrectly ascribes American values upon Australians. If you consult: http://www.bes
72 OzGlobal : It's also a question of selling the same quality from Oz to JFK. If you've paid a handsome amount for a J or F seat and just arrived on a QF A388 at
73 tayser : Or you could just brave it out in LAX and still do a one-stop from MEL to NYC avoiding SYD altogether. SYD and LAX are probably the two most horrible
74 LAXintl : Its a pretty universal trait. People go after price. Australia does not have a burgeoning LCC sector because people want service, they want a low pri
75 tayser : USA was a closed shop with only QF and UA "competing". QF only ordered the 744ER to start MEL-LAX as UA was going to get in before them (And they did
76 Viscount724 : Personally I think the single daily AC YVR-SYD nonstop is enough for what is a rather small market. There are plenty of other connecting opportunitie
77 nycdave : Thanks! I'm kind of shocked that the numbers are so small! Does that include ex-pats at all (which I'm well aware would be an even smaller number) or
78 hsvflier : i know several folks who have done longer than 20 hours on one flight for a C-17
79 rjm777ual : Well, the 772LR has the range, it's just their isn't enough demand for this route.
80 LAXintl : The numbers are for anyone travelling on Australian passport making entry into the US. I'm not sure why you say the numbers are small. Excluding Cana
81 Post contains images nycdave : Haha, I guess because of the number of Aussies I've met in my home city of 8.5 mill The numbers make sense, it just feels weird to see those numbers,
82 HKG212 : The F and J products on AA transcon flights are quite good in fact. An Australian friend recently flew SFO-JFK in J and thought the inflight service
83 tayser : Flat beds aren't important on flights under 8 hours, full stop!
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