2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 982 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 24057 times:
Other new orders are not likely until some actual performance numbers are in. I doubt that the 748i will sell a lot more planes - but I would not be surprised by another 30-50. The 748F will sell for many years.
redrooster3 From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 217 posts, RR: 2 Reply 2, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 24016 times:
Paul787 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 38 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 23174 times:
DL is a true potential candidate for the 748i. Their current fleet of 747s is getting old and they really need a 'Jumbo' for some of their routes. For now it looks like they want to focus on narrow body fleet renewal.
FlyingCello From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 104 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 21384 times:
Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 4):
- BA have stated the 748I has no place in their future fleet plans, it's not going to happen folks.
BA did say this a few years back, but things change...
If Lufthansa and Korean prove that there is a place for the 748 beside the A380 (and the 77W / A346) then there may well be a similar place at BA. Also, Iberian could use the 748 for south Atlantic routes, and if the aircraft is in the group, then BA may want to benefit. Remember too that the 748 won the competition within BA for their new VLA, only for Airbus to offer the A380 at a knockdown price, and take the day. So BA like the 748 idea. Finally, in a world where oil prices are only going up, having the ability to match airframe to route precisely will bring economic benefits.
I'm not saying BA are a certainty for the 748, but don't rule it out.
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11708 posts, RR: 52 Reply 6, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 21248 times:
Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 4): BA have stated the 748I has no place in their future fleet plans, it's not going to happen folks.
Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 5): BA did say this a few years back, but things change...
Didn't they also say at one time they didn't need the B-77W?
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16260 posts, RR: 52 Reply 8, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 20615 times:
Quoting 2175301 (Reply 1): Other new orders are not likely until some actual performance numbers are in.
I agree with this, some solid performance numbers coupled with aggressive pricing/financing from Boeing are what's needed to stimulate additional orders. In terms of potential new carriers, UA might be a possibility at somepoint especially in light of this latest news about EWR:
Quote: NEW YORK – The biggest airliner Boeing has ever built could soon be coming to Newark Liberty International Airport.
This waiver is most likely to facilitate future LH 747-8I to EWR, as well as cargo carriers. However it helps Boeing make the sales pitch to UA, EWR would definitely at the top of UA's concerns with regards to any potential VLA orders.
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1709 posts, RR: 4 Reply 9, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 20490 times:
Quoting redrooster3 (Reply 2): I always thought 12 A380's and and 24 787's on order wont replace 61 744's. BA will have to order 748's at least.
I strongly believe that the majority of BA's 747s will be replaced by the 777-300ER, or the "777-9X". An order for A350-1000 also cannot be ruled out.
Quoting Paul787 (Reply 3): DL is a true potential candidate for the 748i. Their current fleet of 747s is getting old and they really need a 'Jumbo' for some of their routes.
Nope. If anything, Delta will get 777-300ERs/ "-9X" to replace their 747s. This way, they will keep fleet commonality with their existing 777-200LRs.
ebj1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 2 Reply 11, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 20111 times:
What an airline says today may not match its requirements in the future. For the 748i, I'd suggest just watch to see what happens. I wouldn't be too quick to count it out. True, the airlines aren't stampeding to Boeing's door to order them, but as has been mentioned before, the airplane isn't in airline service and the performance numbers aren't in. Airline plans change and equipment requirements change as well. The future for the 748i may be brighter than some on this web site believe.
767nutter From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 161 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 17382 times:
Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12):
Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?
i doubt i would find it among my stacks of magazines to give a more detailed reply but put simply in a article in a Airliner World issue Lufthansa were saying it fits perfectly between the A380 and A340 fleet on certain routes and to be able to offer passengers cheaper/better flying. sorry for not being more detailed but that was the basis of it
VC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2426 posts, RR: 9 Reply 16, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 16019 times:
I am old enough to remember watching the Sonny & Cher show. At the time, while popular, Cher was always ridiculed as not being particularly talented as an actress or singer. Years later she won an Acadamy Award for best actress. Fred Astair's first screen test said "can't sing, can't dance". In business the same rules apply.never can feel very certain, but really, only god knows. Today the 748-8i "seems" like a loved airplane that doesn't fit into anyone's plans, but, we could find that by 2018 the order books are packed. We can only hope that other posters are right: that once Lufthansa and Korean report, and the reports on performance are better than expected, others will line up with their orders.
Boeing didn't create the 747-8i on a whim to keep it's signature airplane flying - they did it because they had enough research that indicated it was worth the investment. And even if it becomes just the doll of cargo, I assume they will see a sizable ROI, or they will have a lot of punishing share holders to answer to.
But it ain't over until the fat lady sings. And fingers crossed that LH and the passengers create big demand!
Frankly, I will get tired of only spotting 2 holers!
The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
UAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 18, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 15318 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
Because they operate the A340-600.
Yup, Lufthansa made their bed with the A340-600. While it isn't as economically viable as the 77W, the A340-600 fills the exact same niche as the 77W.
As far as the 748, I believe United will be the first US customer for this aircraft. The A380 is too large, and they need a more match to match replacement for the 744's. As much as people like to dog the 744, it has a VERY huge roll in United's fleet planning. While United will say they want to reduce capacity, I just don't see it happening, especially on the Asian routes. Delta would be the next airline I would see buying it.
The 748 is not digging sales right now, but I think if we wait, it will be a big seller, because there is nothing in between an A340-600/77W and the A380 anymore, and that in itself, is a large market.
EPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 3593 posts, RR: 36 Reply 19, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 15280 times:
Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12): Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 5):
If Lufthansa and Korean prove that there is a place for the 748 beside the A380
Did they prove there was a place for the 747-8, or were they simply given an offer they couldn't refuse?
Probably a bit of both. LH is getting the biggest launch customer discount of course. And given the fact that the freighter capabilities of the B748i are very good, and given the fact that LH and KE are among the worldwide top 3 combined passenger & cargo airlines, their selection makes perfect sense.
I am not so sure if that would also be the case when we are talking about BA, which to me is a predominantly passenger airline.
EPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 3593 posts, RR: 36 Reply 20, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 15192 times:
Quoting UAL747 (Reply 18): The 748 is not digging sales right now, but I think if we wait, it will be a big seller, because there is nothing in between an A340-600/77W and the A380 anymore, and that in itself, is a large market.
But to be fair there is not that much room in the market imho to fill that gap. And what if the heavily speculated B777-NG arrives? Or a possible A350-1100? That will surely be the end of the B748, as the B77W almost already has done by itself (and helped a little bit by the A380 which took away "the top" of the possible demand).
Ire2008 From Ireland, joined Mar 2008, 115 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 15142 times:
What i kind of meant was why LH went for the 748 over the 777W? Jus because so many other airlines went 777W and not 748? Im sure discounted proces helped but can't be the only reason? Also when do LH plan to phase out the A346? Also thus a bit off topic, but why would say VS go for the A346 over the 777?
UAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks ago) and read 15049 times:
Quoting Ire2008 (Reply 21): What i kind of meant was why LH went for the 748 over the 777W? Jus because so many other airlines went 777W and not 748? Im sure discounted proces helped but can't be the only reason? Also when do LH plan to phase out the A346?
Because in numbers, the A346 can carry as much as a 77W (sort of), but not as economically. LH is a HUGE Airbus customer and I'm sure that also had something to do with it. I have a feeling though, they will be the last airline flying the big A346, while the rest of the world's fleets are retired. So that said, A346 fills the 77W gap, and the 748 definitely carries more than the 77W, but not as much as the A380. So they really only have a SLIGHT increase in capacity, whereas the 77W would compete directly with their already large fleet of A346's.
NWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 848 posts, RR: 3 Reply 23, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks ago) and read 14947 times:
Quoting VC10er (Reply 16): I am old enough to remember watching the Sonny & Cher show. At the time, while popular, Cher was always ridiculed as not being particularly talented as an actress or singer. Years later she won an Acadamy Award for best actress. Fred Astair's first screen test said "can't sing, can't dance". In business the same rules apply.never can feel very certain, but really, only god knows. Today the 748-8i "seems" like a loved airplane that doesn't fit into anyone's plans, but, we could find that by 2018 the order books are packed. We can only hope that other posters are right: that once Lufthansa and Korean report, and the reports on performance are better than expected, others will line up with their orders.
Boeing didn't create the 747-8i on a whim to keep it's signature airplane flying - they did it because they had enough research that indicated it was worth the investment. And even if it becomes just the doll of cargo, I assume they will see a sizable ROI, or they will have a lot of punishing share holders to answer to.
But it ain't over until the fat lady sings. And fingers crossed that LH and the passengers create big demand!
Frankly, I will get tired of only spotting 2 holers!
I got you beat. I can remember watching Howdy Doody, Hopalong Cassidy, Maverick, Dragnet, Roy Rogers and Gene Autry.
Delta will fly their 747-400s into oblivion, just like Northwest did with the DC-9-30s. Delta will wait for Boeing to build a better version of the 777 or some other large twin to replace the 747-400. If not ,Delta may acquire some late build 747-400s to replace their older 747-400s. Delta may consider the 747-8i only if the price is right and they really have a need for it.. Aircraft today are very expensive and have to show the operator a profit. A 747 can't be bought for 21 Million Dollars each, like Northwest paid for their first 10 747-100s in 1970.
EPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 3593 posts, RR: 36 Reply 24, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks ago) and read 14947 times:
Quoting Ire2008 (Reply 21): What i kind of meant was why LH went for the 748 over the 777W?
Like I already indicated I guess for both LH and KE the cargo capability on top of the a bit higher passenger capacity (compared to the A346 and B77W) will most likely have been the decisive factor. Added to the launch customer bonus of course. I doubt LH and KE have paid more for these B748I's then what a normal B77W would cost them. But that is a statement I can not back-up with any numbers, it is just a thought that I have.
25 GBLKD: I doubt that considering that mainline IB is an all airbus fleet and in theory all pilots can currently be trained to operate everything in the curre
26 FlyingCello: But it wasn't so long ago that the 744 was in the Iberia fleet...so some of that pilot / engineer pool will still be available, and can be revalidate
27 dkdaviator: Yes, I think this is right. At least one place where you can read more about this is in one of the 2011 Lufthansa onboard "Magazin" editions. I think
28 aircanada014: I disagree DL being a true canidate for B747s because they haven't flown the plane for a long time, they inherit the plane through mergering with NW.
29 lightsaber: I hear rumors and I haven't seen a finalization of the Hong Kong airlines order. I would also be very surprised if KE doesn't order more. Besides Indi
30 JayinKitsap: The VLA market for the last 30 years has been in the 25 to 40 per year. In that a) worldwide widebody demand is up and b) the 77W slots in well for th
31 dave2: Since most of this is comments one various opinions. So here is my 2 cents on the subject. Likely candidates for B747-8i are users of large fleets of
32 astuteman: I have to agree with that. Especially as the same is almost certainly true for the A380, too Again, I think the A380 shows that this is indeed possib
33 B777LRF: LH got the A346 partly because they were, and still remain, a very large A340 Classic operator and a very, very large Airbus operator. The other reaso
34 KC135TopBoom: Launch customers always get heavy discount pricing, just like CX did for launching the WhaleJet. Correct, and when it comes time to begin replacing t
35 scbriml: Do you mean A380? I can assure you that CX didn't get any discount for their A380s.
36 PlymSpotter: My feeling is that either SA or IB will take the honor of last major flag carrier flying the type, but even then A346s won't disappear, they'll just
37 FlyingCello: Thanks for that...didn't realise they were hired in...
38 Rara: But if there were to be a market, wouldn't Airbus react by offering a A387 to further eat into the 748's niche? That's true! Remember how hesitantly
39 lightsaber: I agree that many of the 744s were bought for range and 'abused' on capacity. However, today we now have the major airline alliances and other airlin
40 nycdave: My thoughts exactly. Most of UA's hubs have abundant room to increase frequency, but EWR is full up and only really leaves them with the option of in
41 B777LRF: You and i see the same pattern, and my money is on the A380 (in all its present and future variations) doing the stitching rather than the 748i.
42 PlanesNTrains: I don't know what will come of the 748i, but every day that passes puts the market one step closer to a more capable A388, an A389, and the proposed 7
43 Viscount724: When the 747-8 was launched in 2005 the world oil price was around $40 to $50 a barrel, not $100 like today. That's a big factor. No airline is going
44 cosmofly: The only game left that I can see for the 748i is a clever use of the OSU space to add more seats. Boeing has been advertising that the OSU has the s
45 ER757: Or the five for Air China - the finalization of both of those could come at the same time if the Chinese gov't decides to let them go through. There
46 SSTeve: They would have to figure out how to add lavs and galleys up there. Pretty much a non-starter for seats.
47 Stitch: Such a plane would probably have unfavorable economics due to weight to size. I recall Boeing muttering that the 747-8 would have fuel burn close to
48 Cerecl: I may be totally wrong, but I think the 20% fuel burn advantage 77W has over 744 refers to total trip. 747-8i on the other hand should have roughly e
49 CFBFrame: Why do you do that? The 747-8 will sell just like the 77W did. People said the A340-600 would own the segment only to be left at the gate while the 7
50 seabosdca: These days, belly capacity can take care of that. A 787-9 is a pretty killer replacement for a 74M, and is absurdly cheaper to fly. On TATL and Europ
51 AngMoh: Which effectively means that the can not sell any more of them because airlines are not willing to pay the minimum price Boeing is asking. I thought
53 PlymSpotter: I like your optimism, but it just wouldn't happen - the A380 has already left the B748 at the gate and its efficiency keeps getting better. We'll see
54 Stitch: Well the 747-8 has 12.5% more seats than the 747-400 (467 vs. 415 in a Boeing OEM three-class configuration), so a simple stretch of the 747-400 woul
55 InsideMan: oh well, every few weeks somebody asks the same (sorry) silly question. "Will there be more 747-8i orders?" The answer is, we don't know and nor does
56 WA707atMSP: China's trade wars with the US are much smaller than their trade wars with the EU over the Emissions Trading Scheme. I think China will favor Boeing
57 BlueShamu330s: It's pantomime season, so....Oh no they won't. Some myths there, I'm afraid. Myth 1/ The 748 did not ever win the competition within BA for their VLA
59 SEPilot: I fail to see your logic. The 77W left the A346 in the dust because of substantially better efficiency, and for no other reason. There is no indicati
60 travelhound: Well, I think they did do a little better than you assert. They increased the range by 800 NM which on a fuel efficiency front represents an advantag
61 hmelawyer: Aspire Aviation is reporting that the 748 has the leg up on the A380 in the upcoming competition at CX. The blog post is available at http://www.aspir
62 cmf: Well, he has had that opinion for years now. Basically his argument is that the 748 is better than A380 because it can carry more cargo and has less
63 lightsaber: Actually, for CX, if they have good passenger yield than the 748I does make more sense for them due to the cargo; this is for certain airports. The A
64 BlueShamu330s: . Furthermore, the 747-8I Intercontinental suits Cathay Pacific’s frequency-based business model, instead of a capacity-based one, better, which en
65 cmf: And the 748i is poor vs the 77W. The suggestion that the 748i is on the frequency end of the spectrum is also hard to follow.
66 travelhound: There are certain sectors in the CX network that require an aircraft larger than the 77W. This is where the 747 size aircraft comes into play. An adv
67 cmf: But that is not his argument. Why can't an A380 be used like that Completely agree. That is essentially my objection to his arguments.
68 Devilfish: I'd boldly venture that PR is another candidate for a couple to LAX...to convert their planned lease of a 3rd and 4th 77W...but not in this economic
69 travelhound: From my previous reading of articles on the matter, the 747 is suited to the network structure where as the A380 is not. It might be the case it is s
70 Stitch: It is in cargo volume, but not in payload weight or payload over range. So depending on CX's average cargo density...
71 PlymSpotter: Interesting, I didn't know it was being resold. Still, ultimately with the super-rich like that I believe it's not a case of A vs B, but A and B, it'
72 CXB77L: What A389? Airbus hasn't so much as hinted that they'll launch it, despite CX's desire for one. If no A389 is forthcoming, the 748i makes more sense
73 Asiaflyer: Airbus has no cargo revenue problem, but airlines has to match the right plane with the right route. So far it looks like A388 is the preferred plane
74 AngMoh: I read the article and the data seems to argue that the 77W is the best option and not the 748.
75 B738FlyUIA: TSO (Transaero) ordered 4 747-8I but till today there is no confermation about it!!! Does anybody know when this will be? Maybe Dubai AirShow in Feb?
76 Cerecl: You are right, of course. A comparison between 748F and 744 seems more favourable, but the numbers quoted above are Boeing's own numbers. I doubt the
77 PezySPU: It's not just CX, there are more airlines interested as well. I think EK expresed interest.
78 cmf: Don't know if you read his analysis but he is building his argument on volume, a chart that he has used over and over and even had to get Boeing to h
79 SEPilot: The problem is that almost all airlines who want the A389 will, if it is not built, buy the A388 (CX is the only one I have heard of who says that th
80 cmf: That is a big question and I certainly do not have the information to categorically state the additional sale and additional revenue per sold unit wi
81 SEPilot: No, I certainly cannot. I am merely voicing my opinion, and many on this forum disagree with me. But I would point out that it took considerable pres
82 Stitch: Has there been any indication of how many LD3 positions an A380-900 would have? I have 44 (26F/18A), but I don't know if that's accurate (as in it ma
83 OldAeroGuy: Interesting if correct. The 773ER has space for 44 LD3's. With far fewer passengers, the 773ER would still have a significant cargo volume advantage.
84 Stitch: Exactly. An A380-900 should offer about the same seating area as two 777-300ERs, so an airline that mostly moves people (or has a cargo arm that coul
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