Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
AA Drops ORD-DEL,EK Opportunity?  
User currently offlinenomorerjs From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 509 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 7747 times:

With AA exiting ORD-DEL, will EK pounce on this opportunity for ORD-India/Pakistan/SE Asia?

UA/CO have not announced any ORD-Int'l service since the merger and the market is opeing. EK could jump in and trump UA/CO, give AI/EY/RJ some competiton, and provide n/s service from ORD to DXB (probably the largest market not served by anyone). Thoughts?

39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25626 posts, RR: 22
Reply 1, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7706 times:

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
EK could jump in and trump UA/CO, give AI/EY/RJ some competiton,

Many of the major European carriers serving ORD are also major operators to India. I'm sure they carry a high percentage of the traffic, and routings via the European hubs are as short (sometimes shorter) than via hubs in the Middle East.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
ORD to DXB (probably the largest market not served by anyone)

I have no data but I would think there are many unserved O&D markets from ORD much larger than DXB. The vast majority of passengers on any future ORD-DXB nonstop service would be connecting to points beyond, just like almost all other longhaul flights to DXB.


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3368 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7399 times:

If there was a real big demand for ORD-DEL/BOM flights, I'm guessing AA wouldn't be pulling out, I'm sure a decent percentage of the passengers flying AA's 777 to India were also connecting passengers as well. Certainly not a valid reason in itself to warrent EK to start flying the same level of aircraft into a city they have recently by-passed in favor of DFW & SEA.


AA AC AQ AS BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OO OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN
User currently offlineburj From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 901 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7310 times:

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
With AA exiting ORD-DEL, will EK pounce on this opportunity for ORD-India/Pakistan/SE Asia?

Yes there is definitely an opportunity for EK to serve ORD which has a large South Asian community independent of AA but AA pulling out of ORD-DEL means even LESS competition for them to deal with.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 1):
Many of the major European carriers serving ORD are also major operators to India. I'm sure they carry a high percentage of the traffic, and routings via the European hubs are as short (sometimes shorter) than via hubs in the Middle East.

But none of those airlines serve other South Asian countries like Pakistan...the EK DXB hub allows for onward connections to almost every major population center in South Asia.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 2):
I'm guessing AA wouldn't be pulling out, I'm sure a decent percentage of the passengers flying AA's 777 to India were also connecting passengers as well.

But how many people were willing to fly on AA from ORD to DEL if they wanted to connect to Bangladesh or Pakistan? DEL is not a good connection point for any non-Indian airports...however DXB has been created and grown over the years to facilitate onward connections to pretty much every significant city in all South Asian countries...


User currently offlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2068 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 6996 times:

For whatever reason, EK and QR are in no hurry to launch ORD at this time.. One will probably do so eventually. I doubt EK is paying much attention nor is influenced by anything AA does.

User currently offlineteme82 From Finland, joined Mar 2007, 1569 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 6974 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Hmmm. Could AY jump in with it's via HEL idea  


Flying high and low
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8424 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 6952 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 4):
For whatever reason, EK and QR are in no hurry to launch ORD at this time.. One will probably do so eventually. I doubt EK is paying much attention nor is influenced by anything AA does.

Ethihad Airways flies to Chicago from Abu Dhabi so there is already an airline from the United Arab Emirates flying to ORD. AA is doing what AA needs to do, it wouldn't abandon the route unless it was loosing buckets, no word yet on ORD to PEK or PVG.


User currently offlinetharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1865 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6837 times:

Quoting burj (Reply 3):
But how many people were willing to fly on AA from ORD to DEL if they wanted to connect to Bangladesh or Pakistan? DEL is not a good connection point for any non-Indian airports..

Not just Bangladesh and Pakistan, but also secondary Indian cities.


User currently onlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5591 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6813 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 6):
it wouldn't abandon the route unless it was loosing buckets

Not necessarily true; it just means there's another route where that aircraft could make more money.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23148 posts, RR: 20
Reply 9, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6761 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 4):
I doubt EK is paying much attention nor is influenced by anything AA does.

I certainly understand (and agree with) where you are coming from, but I do think that any reduction in ORD-India capacity makes the business case for EK somewhat better. How much better is a difficult question, and I doubt that if EK was number 50 on EK's list of prospective destinations 2 weeks ago, it's now number 2 just because AA dropped ORD-DEL. But it might be number 45 now.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4801 posts, RR: 44
Reply 10, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6739 times:

Etihad sends an A320 daily to DEL which is being fed with traffic from USA/UK/EU/GCC etc so hardly any impact.

Loss of AA on ORD-DEL would be a bigger blessing in disguise for QR to launch ORD versus EK as EK is not as heavily reliant on India bound traffic from USA as QR is in comparison. EK has a vast GCC, Saudi, African and Far East network to compliment the route with.


User currently offlinehohd From United States of America, joined May 2008, 433 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6715 times:

EY has the most to benefit, plus they have a frequent flyer relationship with AA. When AA announced the FF relationship with EY, I am assuming that they were already thinking about terminating ORD-DEL route. And EY will be only airline to provide service to Pakistan, secondary Indian cities and other nearby cities.

This certainly makes it easire for EK to enter, however ORD has plenty of other airlines providing service to similar service to cities that EK does (except for markets in Pakistan, Iran etc.).


User currently offlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2068 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6684 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 6):
Quoting klwright69 (Reply 4):
For whatever reason, EK and QR are in no hurry to launch ORD at this time.. One will probably do so eventually. I doubt EK is paying much attention nor is influenced by anything AA does.

Ethihad Airways flies to Chicago from Abu Dhabi so there is already an airline from the United Arab Emirates flying to ORD. AA is doing what AA needs to do, it wouldn't abandon the route unless it was loosing buckets, no word yet on ORD to PEK or PVG.

This is true, I have had the misfortune of taking that flight. However I doubt the presence of EY is keeping out EK, since EK added DUB with EY already in the market. We can only guess why EK and QR have stayed out of ORD.

EK might look at ORD sooner without AA, or maybe not. We don't know.


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2208 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6637 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 12):
This is true, I have had the misfortune of taking that flight. However I doubt the presence of EY is keeping out EK, since EK added DUB with EY already in the market. We can only guess why EK and QR have stayed out of ORD.

Dublin is also approximately half the distance to Abu Dhabi than it is from Chicago, meaning the costs (fuel, aircraft utilization rate, etc) were significantly less and therefore was lower hanging fruit for EK.

So, it's not really a vis-a-vis comparison.

Back to the subject, I don't think that AA's removal of ORD-DEL traffic will affect EK that much. If PK (or even more drastically, AI) were to pull the plug on ORD, THEN I think the barriers to entry would be lowered for EK and they would certainly jump in.

But, I don't see that happening unless these carriers go under.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8424 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6621 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 8):
Not necessarily true; it just means there's another route where that aircraft could make more money.

This flight is 15 hours per sector, the longest in AA's route system thus the most expensive to fuel. Its so far the whole trip is all the way around the world, from India to ORD to travels eastward.


User currently offlineyeogeo From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 883 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5845 times:

ORD is extraordinarliy well-connected by many one-stop options as well as the daily AI non-stop to DEL.

I can't help but think that EK would have O'Hare on its list as one it must serve eventually, but not one that is critically important for them to serve right now, as Cubs implied above. Still, they may prove me wrong tomorrow!

Just to illustrate how well-connected ORD is to South Asia, I did this little exersize this morning ...

First, a map of South Asian destinations served by existing Middle Eastern Carriers with nonstop service to ORD:




Second, a map of South Asian destinations served from Europe on European carriers that fly nonstop from ORD and Pakistan Intl. Airlines' one-stop through BCN:




And finally, all South Asian destinations served by Emirates from its Dubai hub:




You'll notice only AMD is not served by any other carrier but by EK and that CGP ( Chittagong) and PNQ are served by other carriers from their hubs but not by Emirates.

Of course many more options than what is shown here are available. For example, these maps do not include any interlining from hubs which could occur, any transfers that could be made in DEL from AI’s nonstop or any that could be made in PK’s hubs to other South Asian destinations or any transfers that could be made in other US, Canadian or East Asian hubs. -Did I forget anything?   (The maps do not account for any impractical or impossible connections either).

Whether the average traveller would be aware of all his/her options, ORD/ S. Asia, is another matter. Perhaps EK has an advantage in that many would recognize it as the place to go for "one-stop shopping" (pun?).

EK, however, does not enjoy an advantage to its peers in having more destinations in S. Asia or shorter distances to cover, would it fly from ORD.

yeo



Yokoso! to my world
User currently offlineordjoe From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 717 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5581 times:

It is my understanding that the AA flight was almost full in all 3 cabins on most flights, so the market is there. I will though agree EK and QR do not seem quick to start ORD. Could EK or QR do a fifth freedom ORD-DEL direct if they suddently wanted

User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8142 posts, RR: 54
Reply 17, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5414 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 12):
This is true, I have had the misfortune of taking that flight.

I also took that flight - EY250 - and had a great time! OK Etihad do, alas, have 3-4-3 seating on their 777-300ERs, but a great interior, printed menu, great catering, plenty of IFE, good timings (dep 2100ish, arr 1900+1ish); seriously, if this doesn't rock your world, don't ever fly a US carrier, or most European carriers. They are not better.

Quoting ordjoe (Reply 16):
Could EK or QR do a fifth freedom ORD-DEL direct if they suddently wanted

No way. Not in a million years. EK aren't even allowed to fly A380s on DXB-DEL (or any Indian city).



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlinemd94 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 149 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4542 times:

I flew AA ORD-DEL several times and it was almost always near full or full. I guess there are other factors causing AA to loose money, but I just don't seem them loosing $40 million a year on it. Maybe it was light on cargo, fuel costs too high and the landing fees in Delhi were supposedly outrageous.


72?, 732/3/7/8, 763/4, 773, 744, MD88/90, F100, 319/20/21, E145/135/175/195, CRJ200/700, B206, 152/72/82, CH47, F16D,
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8424 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4343 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting md94 (Reply 18):
but I just don't seem them loosing $40 million a year on it. Maybe it was light on cargo, fuel costs too high and the landing fees in Delhi were supposedly outrageous.

Probably a combination of all the above.


User currently offlinehohd From United States of America, joined May 2008, 433 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4313 times:

Quoting yeogeo (Reply 15):
For example, these maps do not include any interlining from hubs which could occur, any transfers that could be made in DEL from AI’s nonstop or any that could be made in PK’s hubs to other South Asian destinations or any transfers that could be made in other US, Canadian or East Asian hubs. -Did I forget anything?

ORD-DEL on AI continues to HYD (same plane service). Also RJ flies ORD-Amman, which provides connections to many middle east cities.


User currently offlineyeogeo From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 883 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 4255 times:

Quoting hohd (Reply 20):
RJ flies ORD-Amman, which provides connections to many middle east cities.

AMM is on the first map with its S. Asian connections, in case you didn't notice. The OP specifically alluded to connections to S. Asia (as well as SE Asia), not to the M-E.

Quoting hohd (Reply 20):
ORD-DEL on AI continues to HYD (same plane service)

That I had never noticed before. Thanks for pointing that out!

yeo



Yokoso! to my world
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13250 posts, RR: 100
Reply 22, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3994 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 13):
I don't think that AA's removal of ORD-DEL traffic will affect EK that much. If PK (or even more drastically, AI) were to pull the plug on ORD, THEN I think the barriers to entry would be lowered for EK and they would certainly jump in.

   I do not see enough service removed to spike ORD demand. I see EK at ORD, just not for a few years.


After DFW, MIA is the next city I would expect to see on EK's america route map.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineaeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3979 times:

Quoting ordjoe (Reply 16):
Could EK or QR do a fifth freedom ORD-DEL direct if they suddently wanted

Haha, no. I would be shocked if the Ministry of Aviation let a private INDIAN carrier (9W, IT) compete with AI. A carrier from another country? No way. Not happening.


American's issue was that the yield wasn't enough to cover the ULH nonstop. Having a connection in Europe reduces cost, and therefore is profitable at a similar yield.

AA's costs sucked as well, but the biggest problem was yield.



Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
User currently offlineWROORD From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 958 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3677 times:

Does it make sense to pull out when Kingfisher is about to enter oneworld. This certainly would improve AA's numbers. Unless AA is making space for Kingfisher to fill.

25 klwright69 : It's all fine and good but as you said their seating is the pits, and the most uncomfortable coach seats in the sky. Back on the topic... AA's move w
26 seabosdca : Agreed, but that still doesn't imply they're losing money, as opposed to merely not making enough. We just don't know.
27 IrishAyes : Not by much. Kingfisher is practically toast unless it gets its act together, which isn't a promising/compelling reason for AA to keep bleeding money
28 jfk777 : In a non BK world I would view India a destination AA should fly to, tying up a 777 for 35 hours for a roundtrip from ORD-DEL-ORD. That 777 could be
29 Mexicana757 : As the rest have pointed out, EK at the moment does have plenty of competition to India from ORD. I'm sure that will not stop them from coming to ORD
30 IrishAyes : Although a significant chunk of the capacity EK is funneling over DXB from North America, Indian traffic alone isn't the only segment EK can carry. T
31 Post contains images teme82 : They should look HEL since AY is there. If you look where the flight paths from JFK and ORD goes HEL is better suited than LHR or NRT
32 Post contains images yeogeo : Seeing as AY only flies to Delhi in S. Asia and that AA only flies to HEL seasonally (at least I hope its a seasonal pause and not a route jettisoned
33 klwright69 : Along with EK's planning, I doubt the departure of ORD-DEL will make any difference at all in what EY does. I wonder just how many paying first class
34 behramjee : I have been informed by friends who work at ORD airport itself that EK will be launching daily ORD-DXB nonstop flights effective 6th July 2012 with a
35 Post contains images teme82 : They were on ORD-HEL-DEL route they would got 7 hours layover at HEL. And return would have been over 24 hours ... But if they would put their heads
36 Post contains images yeogeo : Wouldn't that be ironic! Perhaps you should start a separate thread (with the word "rumor" in the title) on the tip and see what shakes out. Helsinki
37 IrishAyes : Well, I mean its fair for people to speculate. It's not a completely outrageous idea. Stranger things have happened. Again, not really a valid compar
38 teme82 : Yeah it seems that their R&D department is not trying to gain foot hold in the US - S. Asia market. One reason would be the time tables. Even the
39 moderators : This thread will be archived as it has run its course with no concrete, factual information being added. All posts added after the thread lock will be
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
AA Drops DEL, BUR posted Mon Jan 9 2012 09:40:26 by aacun
AA Drops DAL-ORD posted Thu Mar 12 2009 10:05:19 by LAXintl
AA Drops PDX-ORD Again posted Mon Sep 29 2008 15:26:19 by TPAPDX
Trying To Nonrev AA ORD-DEL posted Tue Oct 3 2006 02:51:45 by LHUSA
Flying AA ORD-DEL Questions! posted Fri Mar 31 2006 05:48:03 by Medinaj
Loads For AA's ORD-DEL posted Sat Mar 25 2006 03:27:37 by Atrude777
AA Non-Rev Checkin Procedures In DEL For ORD-DEL posted Wed Mar 15 2006 19:50:22 by Mahan
AA ORD-DEL posted Sun Feb 19 2006 18:37:53 by CHI787ORD
How Is AA's ORD-DEL Doing? posted Wed Jan 4 2006 06:38:46 by DIA77
AA ORD-DEL Direct: Which A/c? posted Mon Oct 10 2005 08:18:50 by AirIndia