Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
WN & HI Routes--inaugral Dates?  
User currently offlineolddominion727 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 395 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 6056 times:

I know everybody has been chattering and guessing, throwing around dates, timelines and facts, but has anyone heard anything legitimate as to if they are even flying to HI and if they are, when and what routes? I know lots of speculation from from LAS, PHX, OAK, SEA, RNO, SMF, SAN ,PDX since TZ yanked their routes ultimately when bankrupt. But it's going to take time to build their 738 stash (unless they use some FL equipment)...

Thanks for the info

39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 820 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 5649 times:

Personally, I believe twenty five flights a day is optimistic. I have no doubt there is a market for SW, but I suspect the level of competition, frequent flyer loyalists, etc will keep them from being huge in the market. LAS is a good example. The vast majority of traffic on the route originates in Hawaii which HA dominates with its frequent flyer program. It will be difficult for WN to crack that. Local HA customers are very loyal.


Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5577 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I think WN has a lot of potential for HI flights, especially from those destinations that have excellent connection opportunities like LAS, OAK, LAX. Maybe others could include PHX, SJC and SAN.

Quoting HNL-Jack" class="quote" target="_blank">HNL-Jack (Reply 2):
Personally, I believe twenty five flights a day is optimistic. I have no doubt there is a market for SW, but I suspect the level of competition, frequent flyer loyalists, etc will keep them from being huge in the market. LAS is a good example. The vast majority of traffic on the route originates in Hawaii which HA dominates with its frequent flyer program. It will be difficult for WN to crack that. Local HA customers are very loyal.

I think it's all going to boil down to the right price. But I don't doubt WN will have an uphill battle with HA out LAS. As I said earlier, WN will probably have to rely on connections to bolster their HI flights.

HA isn't the only airline that flies LAS-Hawaii. Doesn't Omni International fly 757 with charters to and from HNL?


User currently offlineRamblinMan From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 1138 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5400 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 3):
WN will probably have to rely on connections to bolster their HI flights.

Connections which HA does not have. And I wouldn't be too worried about frequent flier loyalties either...the free baggage allowance alone will sell it to the tourists.


User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5290 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 4):
Connections which HA does not have. And I wouldn't be too worried about frequent flier loyalties either...the free baggage allowance alone will sell it to the tourists.

True. Southwest has plenty of loyal customers...so that would be icing on the cake for them.


User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5181 times:

Couldnt the 737-700 make that route though as it has longer range legs then the 738, though the 800 is more economical?

[Edited 2012-01-25 20:28:12 by SA7700]


ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 463 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5116 times:

Quoting Atlwest1 (Reply 7):
Couldnt the 737-700 make that route though as it has longer range legs then the 738, though the 800 is more economical?

Not really. First of all WN's 73Gs are not ETOPS planes. Secondly, Hawaii operates at 180-minute ETOPS requiring significant reserve fuel in case of a diversion. Long story short, the 73Gs reach their structural payload limits quicker than the 738s on long ETOPS flights (738s become tank limited). When reserve fuel is not necessary (long non-ETOPS flights) the lower fuel burn of the 73G vs. the 738 gives the G slightly more range overall.

Pilots/ops planners, please let me know if this is in the right ballpark concerning 73G/738 ETOPS and feel free to correct anything I messed up.



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13767 posts, RR: 61
Reply 7, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 5026 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 3):
WN will probably have to rely on connections to bolster their HI flights.

Perhaps, save for the LAX-HNL market. I can see WN cleaning up there, stealing just enough share from HA/AA/UA/DL to fill 2x daily 738s. I can't see them doing more than that though, unless they start believing in redeyes, and that seems to be something they avoid like the plague.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineusflyguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1079 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 4918 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 9):

Hawaii will bring redeyes from the islands to the mainland.



My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
User currently offlineHypoxik From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 50 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 4864 times:

AQ had an easier time with the 73G.

ATA sometimes struggled with their 738's.

I commuted on both for a while between the West Coast and PHOG (OGG).

P.S. CAL never uses the 800's. They use 900ERs.



California Native. KIWA, PHOG, KEWR, KIAH, KLAX, KIAH, KEWR, KORD
User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 463 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4685 times:

Quoting Hypoxik (Reply 12):

P.S. CAL never uses the 800's. They use 900ERs.

739ERs are only in the summer. 738s are used the rest of the year. Positive on this



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlineGEN2STEW From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 99 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4054 times:

Like another LCC I think WN is being overly optimistc re: ETOPS cert. in such a short time span. Also, I thought that not all 800's would be for over water flying i.e. MDW-LGA and other slot restricted fields. On the demand side of HI, yes people WANT to go but few seem to PAY; most use miles, points, etc... to pay for air,hotel, and car. In preium cabins on UA/AA there is a very diluted lower quality service compared to similar length flights over the Atlantic not to mention BOB in Y; that certianly points to lower yeilds in the cabins. Another point: the carriers that fly 757's and bigger can at least take cargo wich usually pays better than pax, will WN be able to take cargo?


I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 463 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3927 times:

Quoting GEN2STEW (Reply 17):
On the demand side of HI, yes people WANT to go but few seem to PAY; most use miles, points, etc... to pay for air,hotel, and car. In preium cabins on UA/AA there is a very diluted lower quality service compared to similar length flights over the Atlantic not to mention BOB in Y; that certianly points to lower yeilds in the cabins. Another point: the carriers that fly 757's and bigger can at least take cargo wich usually pays better than pax, will WN be able to take cargo?

Current capacity to Hawaii from the mainland is constraining demand and allowing for better revenue management. It's difficult to snag the cheaper awards to Hawaii since there is almost unlimited demand at those award levels. Premium cabins don't matter much to Hawaii...why do you think HA and UA, the two largest carriers to the mainland, have domestic FC seats in the premium cabin? Hawaii makes money in coach if at all.

Regarding widebody vs. narrowbody to Hawaii, NBs work since they have significantly fewer seats that can be revenue managed higher. Plus, seat costs for an airline like AS are likely very similar to the WBs and since fewer total seats need to be filled, the NBs can be filled at a higher average yield than the WBs. Cargo helps for WBs, but it's not an immense profitability driver once carrying cost and associated handling fees are deducted (Hawaii China where cargo is gigantic). Outside of HA and UA which operate well defined hubs and have aircraft with the correct LOPAs for Hawaii demand, nearly all westcoast-Hawaii frequency operates on NBs, so it must be working...



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlineDFWHeavy From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 560 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3843 times:

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know on average how much cargo the CO 738 and 739ER can take from the West Coast to Hawaii?


Christopher W Slovacek
User currently offlinewnflyguy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 592 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3823 times:

From what I have heard Hawaii flight will only be from the West coast cities and no PHX OR LAS flights are planned due to weight restrictions would make it nonprofitable. WN learned from ATA that PHX
and LAS only work with 757's and not 737-800 and WN will not be getting any time soon. Wnfg



my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
User currently offlinejetsetter629 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 462 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3738 times:

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 20):
From what I have heard Hawaii flight will only be from the West coast cities and no PHX OR LAS flights are planned due to weight restrictions would make it nonprofitable. WN learned from ATA that PHX
and LAS only work with 757's and not 737-800 and WN will not be getting any time soon.

I agree with this, but you limit the amount of connecting cities if you focus on OAK and LAX. With WN cutting transcontinental routes a few years ago, you would need to double connect if you are coming from a city east of the Mississippi River. PHX and LAS give you advantage of connections to: PHL, BOS, RDU, BDL, etc. Plus it also opens up the smaller Midwest markets not served out of OAK and LAX like OKC, TUL, OMA, IND, etc.

[Edited 2012-01-20 08:41:06]

User currently offlineDFWHeavy From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 560 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3702 times:

This is a hypothetical example.

What if WN sent 3 flights a day from LAX-HNL, but only had 2 flights return to LAX, while the 3rd would fly HNL-LAS/PHX?

Flying eastbound, there shouldn't be any payload/weight restriction problems. That means coming back, passengers would have the option of either connecting in LA or making a likely one stop connection to the many other destinations via LAS or PHX.

Why wouldn't something like this work?



Christopher W Slovacek
User currently offlinealoha73g From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2372 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3666 times:

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 20):
From what I have heard Hawaii flight will only be from the West coast cities and no PHX OR LAS flights are planned due to weight restrictions would make it nonprofitable.

Good call on their part. AQ had trouble with HNL-LAS nonstop on a 73G. The ETOPS requirements on such a long route are killer. While it was operating I regularly heard AQ pilots saying they shouldn't be trying to fly a 737 on the route. AQ only flew it nonstop for a short period of time & then returned to 1-stop service via OAK and/or SNA.

WN should (and I think will) stick to Bay Area and Southern California routes. SJC, OAK, SFO, SMF, LAX, ONT, BUR & SAN should provide more than enough O&D and connections for them to work up to an AS sized operation in a few years.

-Aloha!



Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3778 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3622 times:

Quoting Tdan (Reply 15):
739ERs are only in the summer. 738s are used the rest of the year. Positive on this

I agree. I know I've personally seen CO 738s at HNL before.



PHX based
User currently offlinetravelin man From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3556 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3608 times:

Maybe I am mistaken, but I thought WN was basically "at capacity" at LAX in T1. So, in order to support Hawaii flights from LAX, wouldn't they have to cut some flights to/from other destinations? Or would they think about utilizing the AirTran space in T3?

User currently offlinewnflyguy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 592 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3696 times:

I'm sure you will see a flight depart mid day in BWI and go BWI-LAX-HNL(red eye)-LAX-BWI which would cover connection at LAX and BWI ...wnfg  


my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
User currently offlineBluewave 707 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3152 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3678 times:

Would be nice to see WN do an ONT-HNL run ... I'm sure there will be a demand for that, especially with the 60-90 minute drive from the Inland Empire to LAX. An SNA-HNL run should give good competition to UA.

Just the fact that WN and G4 are entering the Hawai‘i market, is a welcome boost to the economy here.



"The best use of your life will be to so live your life, that the use of your life will outlive your life" -- D Severn
User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 1016 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3595 times:

Quoting Bluewave 707 (Reply 28):
Would be nice to see WN do an ONT-HNL run ... I'm sure there will be a demand for that

If there was a market out of ONT to Hawaii then AS would already be flying it. ONT is a deadzone. If WN can feed it with connecting pax then it might fly but that would be the only way it would be practical AND profitable. I see WN flying out of OAK, LAX, PHX and SAN to Hawaii.



Next trip...DL RJ SEA-LAX/AM LAX-MEX Dec 23
User currently offlineusflyguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1079 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3525 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):

I'd agree with those along with SJC, SNA and possibly even SMF.



My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
User currently offlinealoha73g From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2372 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3466 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 29):
I see WN flying out of OAK, LAX, PHX and SAN to Hawaii.

I don't think PHX will happen for the reason as LAS...its just a little too far to consistently fly a fully loaded 737 under ETOPS. I think this will be a California exclusive operation, with SEA & PDX more likely than LAS or PHX.

SNA will not be happening on a 738. They would need a 73G-ETOPS which according to WN is not happening.

-Aloha!



Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
25 Tdan : Agreed. I think all westcoast WN stations are fair game aside from those with operational issues (SNA and BUR). Don't sell SMF and SJC short either.
26 HiFlyerAS : It will be interesting to see which cities they go up against AS to Hawaii. I think the inaugurals will be out of OAK and LAX...with maybe SJC, SMF an
27 Post contains images SurfandSnow : Unless WN's ETOPS certification process is drastically prolonged (a la G4), I doubt we'll see WN take Hawaii by storm overnight. They will only be abl
28 wedgetail737 : WN is actually diminishing its presence at SEA. I think there is already enough capacity to Hawaii from SEA.
29 LV : How about one stopping through LAX, SAN or OAK onward to LAS or PHX for connections. For example HNL-LAX-LAS and then connect onward to midwest or ea
30 DocLightning : An odd thing, but a lot of Hawaiians LOVE to go to Vegas and gamble. So HA flies an A330 there.
31 SANFan : I wanted to weigh in here on a few subjects near and dear to my heart -- WN, Hawaii, and of course, SAN. "I, like some others, would expect the best c
32 egcarter : Every time I get on a plane between SEA and HNL or OGG, it's packed (either direction).
33 RWA380 : I don't expect you'd have to double connect HNL-SFO-GEG, HNL-DEN-DSM or HNL-DFW-DSM, HNL-ATL-RSW
34 aztrainer : I could see PHX-SAN/SNA-HNL/OGG/KON, LAS-LAX/OAK/SFO-HNL/OGG/KON I also wonder if WN will use SNA as they were a location Aloha used to fly Yes and n
35 HiFlyerAS : AS has revenue management down to a science...it's rare to see ANY AS flight that isn't full. This is true in particular to Hawaii....there might be
36 Tdan : See every other US carrier domestically. AS is not unique in this area. I've analyzed this before, but statistically, once airlines run 80%+ systemwi
37 Post contains links HiFlyerAS : I'm curious...'spilled' to who? Another airline? A different flight on the same airline? "Didn't" is the keyword here. WN doesn't have a cost advanta
38 Post contains images Tdan : Another airline or the passengers simply did not travel You should see WN's loads steadily increase this year
39 EA CO AS : The spill point varies from carrier to carrier, however as a general point anything north of 85% systemwide is a "full" operation.
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Will WN Expand Routes To North Part Of US? posted Sat Jul 14 2007 04:16:38 by Boeing743
WN New Routes + Expansion For 07 posted Thu Nov 16 2006 18:03:45 by R311music
LH North America Routes Start Dates? posted Sun Aug 20 2006 22:49:17 by Tango-Bravo
WN's OAK Routes? posted Sun Oct 23 2005 04:00:22 by Wedgetail737
WN: Started Routes But Then Ended Them? posted Mon Nov 3 2003 12:47:12 by Pe@rson
WN 737NG Routes? posted Sun Jul 15 2001 20:42:05 by Boeing747-400
WN -800 Delivery Dates posted Tue Jan 3 2012 10:03:58 by QANTAS747-438
WN/FL Extends Sked--New Intl/Domestic Routes posted Sun Nov 13 2011 10:12:18 by atrude777
WN Finally To Announce Routes From GSP & CHS posted Thu Oct 14 2010 15:22:38 by GSPSPOT
WN/FL Merger: Impact On Fleets & Routes posted Tue Sep 28 2010 11:16:07 by Moderators