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Does SWA Have Plans Of Adding ANC?  
User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 734 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6871 times:

Hey guys and gals. Not sure if this has been discussed but I wanted to know if SW has plans to add ANC in the summer or perhaps keep it year-round. Could it give CO DE and AS some competition for passengers connecting through Seattle??

37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9828 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6853 times:

ANC does not really fit the category of route that WN has. ANC is very seasonal, a limited market size, far away from any other city, and benefits from overwater equipped aircraft.

I don't expect ANC to be served by WN. SEA, OAK, LAX to ANC are a few routes that could work, but WN typically has 10 flights into a market that it serves. There isn't need for that much capacity there. Also it ties up a lot of airplanes since block times are about 5 hours from California which is longer than flights that WN typically operates.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2766 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6829 times:

I would think probably not, although only WN route planners would know for sure.

Too long, too thin, too few flights, too few WN stations that are near it, and already there is entrenched competition that would make this a station something that I don't think that WN would be interested in.....


User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5947 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6661 times:

Greetings from ANC.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
ANC is very seasonal,

No, it isn't. While the tourist peak is fairly seasonal (ignoring the winter sport tourists for the moment), those of us that live here are the flyingest people in the nation. Hence AS is able to support near-hourly service to SEA during peak times of the day.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
There isn't need for that much capacity there.

I both agree and disagree. The fares here are OUTRAGEOUS. I can easily spend more on an ANC-ORD ticket than I can an ORD-LHR ticket. Additional capacity would bring fares down (happy consumers), even while still keeping things above WN's cost of operation.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 1):
block times are about 5 hours from California

But only three from SEA, and a little longer for PDX...

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
entrenched competition that would make this a station something that I don't think that WN would be interested in.....

WN would put AS out of business in two months flat, if they decided to hub here, and serve all of AS's Alaska routes.
The only reason that AS is able to compete in the lower 48 is by ripping us off in AK, all the while earning the EAS subsidies. $600 from ANC to Nome?? PLUS the EAS cash.... sigh.


User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3778 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6605 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
No, it isn't. While the tourist peak is fairly seasonal (ignoring the winter sport tourists for the moment), those of us that live here are the flyingest people in the nation. Hence AS is able to support near-hourly service to SEA during peak times of the day.

So that's why a lot of the airlines that do service ANC, service it on a seasonal basis? Additionally, AS is a big part of the problem being as entrenched as it is, as you've pointed out. AS would ensure that ANC would be a blood bath if another airline sought a large scale entrance into the market.



PHX based
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6582 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):

Couldn't they work with a flight from SEA To ANC

I personally think it won't happen


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5855 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6565 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
WN would put AS out of business in two months flat, if they decided to hub here, and serve all of AS's Alaska routes.

If it were that easy, someone would have done it already...


User currently offlinehatbutton From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1500 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6508 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
WN would put AS out of business in two months flat, if they decided to hub here, and serve all of AS's Alaska routes.

This statement is laughable. Why has WN dropped out of routes like SEA-GEG? And why does WN not compete direct with AS on SEA-SoCal? Because AS is the only competitor that has so far proven tough for WN.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
The only reason that AS is able to compete in the lower 48 is by ripping us off in AK

Also laughable. The state of Alaska represents 15% of AS's total ASMs. Do you really think those 15% are supporting a $400m+ per year pretax profit and 10% margins?

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
all the while earning the EAS subsidies. $600 from ANC to Nome?? PLUS the EAS cash.... sigh.

You're just making yourself look bad now. The only EAS routes in Alaska for AS are YAK/CDV, PSG/WRG and ADK. Not OME. OME is served by AS on their own. And have you ever checked the load factor on ANC-OME? It's amazing the fare is only $600. Supply and demand right there. WN would not be able to come in and charge fares less than that and somehow spark enough demand. 5,000 people live in OME. Come on.

And take a look at those EAS routes. How many people fly on them? Do you really think AS is making boat loads of money on them even with the subsidy?


User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6477 times:

This is sort of off-topic, but do any of you know if CO once operated IAH-ANC nonstop with the 738 or 737? There was a thread a long time ago about the longest 737 nonstops, and this route came up, but now I think UACO does it with a stop in SEA. Anyone have any info? I believe the flight was something around 7 or 8 hours.

NM: It looks like it was operated with the 73G nonstop at 7h14m nonstop from IAH circa 2005.

UAL

[Edited 2012-01-22 15:02:15]

User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9828 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6402 times:

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 8):


This is sort of off-topic, but do any of you know if CO once operated IAH-ANC nonstop with the 738 or 737? There was a thread a long time ago about the longest 737 nonstops, and this route came up, but now I think UACO does it with a stop in SEA. Anyone have any info? I believe the flight was something around 7 or 8 hours.

They seasonally operate IAH-ANC nonstop in addition to one stop via SEA. It is on a 738 and blocked around 7 hours.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):

No, it isn't. While the tourist peak is fairly seasonal (ignoring the winter sport tourists for the moment), those of us that live here are the flyingest people in the nation. Hence AS is able to support near-hourly service to SEA during peak times of the day.

AS is able to maintain strong year round service to SEA, but that is it. There are about a half dozen other routes that maintain year round service to ANC. WN typically operates 10 flights a day from a station. ANC has only about 20 flights to the lower 48 year round. WN can't make that type of penetration.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):

I both agree and disagree. The fares here are OUTRAGEOUS. I can easily spend more on an ANC-ORD ticket than I can an ORD-LHR ticket. Additional capacity would bring fares down (happy consumers), even while still keeping things above WN's cost of operation.

Fares are certainly outrageous. AS tries to keep competition low and few airlines are able to sustain service. With the domination of AS, other airlines have struggled.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4330 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6385 times:
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Quoting UAL747 (Reply 8):
This is sort of off-topic, but do any of you know if CO once operated IAH-ANC nonstop with the 738 or 737?

I've done the one-stop in a 738. But the stop wasn't very long -- just long enough to step off the plane, get a copy of the Post-Intelligencer from a kiosk, and then get back on the plane. We couldn't have been on the ground more than 30 minutes in either direction


User currently offlineSuperDash From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 574 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6374 times:

The reality is anything is possible. Southwest is getting 737-800W and 737-8 MAX. It's a great sized plane for Anchorage. While Southwest has traditionally run cities with 8-12 departures a day, AirTran has changed that. The fact they are considering International and Hawaii service says....Alaska is absolutely a possibility and it might be with just 3 or 4 flights per day. Southwest has changed a lot over the past few years. If they feel they can make money doing it, count on it that they will be there.

User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 734 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6346 times:

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 8):

I flew that route on a 753 (completely full) after this past new year, around 6 hours

I think that with the way AS operates a year round schedule WN could do the same. I strongly believe WN could give AS a run for their money. All WN would have to do is have a twice daily flight to FLL from SEA to compete with the sole daily flight AS operates.   


User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9828 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6297 times:

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 12):
I think that with the way AS operates a year round schedule WN could do the same. I strongly believe WN could give AS a run for their money. All WN would have to do is have a twice daily flight to FLL from SEA to compete with the sole daily flight AS operates.

WN has nothing compared to AS with connections. They have a reasonable sized operation from SEA, but don't even serve Southern California from SEA, which is the largest market from SEA.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineusflyguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1079 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6247 times:

WN could get a lot more connections for OAK-ANC and DEN-ANC than SEA-ANC.


My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1984 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6193 times:

Gary Kelly has said several times that the -800 will allow WN to go the leisure places like Hawaii and Alaska. Google it and you'll find many times when he's said it.


My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3461 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6033 times:

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 14):
WN could get a lot more connections for OAK-ANC and DEN-ANC than SEA-ANC

For sure, LAS or PHX would also give those good connections, I could see WN doing ANC & FAI, but with 3-4 flights.
WN would be stupid to try SEA-ANC, during the summer AS has 18 flights a day, and numerous other carriers offer additional or increased schedules as well. But I doubt WN would go into AK and set up a hub in ANC to go head to head with AS, WN would be the biggest loser there. Alaskans are loyal to AS, yes they don't have many choices, but AS just offers more than WN will ever offer.

[Edited 2012-01-22 17:43:35]


AA AC AQ AS BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OO OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN
User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5941 times:
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Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 3):
.
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 16):
Alaskans are loyal to AS, yes they don't have many choices, but AS just offers more than WN will ever offer.

Apparently, not all Alaskans are loyal to AS. I don't disagree with AA737-823 on competition, but I think you'll only find it between major points like SEA-ANC or SEA-FAI...not to outlying communities.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):
Gary Kelly has said several times that the -800 will allow WN to go the leisure places like Hawaii and Alaska.

You don't need 737-800's to serve Alaska. The -700's can easily do the trip. Then even their -300 and -500's could do the job as well. Wien and Mark Air served SEA-ANC using 737-200's. WN could have served SEA-ANC back during the merger between Morris Air and WN. Oh yeah and Morris Air didn't put AS out of business either.


User currently offlinetsnamm From United States of America, joined May 2005, 632 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5882 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 9):

They seasonally operate IAH-ANC nonstop in addition to one stop via SEA. It is on a 738 and blocked around 7 hours.

CO has done EWR/ANC as well for a few seasons...though not for the last year or 2...


User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5859 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 17):
You don't need 737-800's to serve Alaska. The -700's can easily do the trip.

I think he/she means in terms of profit. The larger aircraft will allow for a larger payload....which would allow them to have a presence without having a ton of flights per day.

UAL


User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5827 times:
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Quoting UAL747 (Reply 19):
I think he/she means in terms of profit. The larger aircraft will allow for a larger payload....which would allow them to have a presence without having a ton of flights per day.

That's probably true. How much freight does WN move throughout their system? Probably much more than one would realize.

Gary Kelly's statement above is little misleading. Unlike Mainland-HI service, any WN airplane could fly to ANC.


User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5809 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):
How much freight does WN move throughout their system?

Not sure, though I'm sure quite a bit, but they can also carry more passengers, which would economically allow them to reduce the number of flights per day.


User currently offlineusflyguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1079 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5809 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):

Cargo is a BIG part of SWA's business...

It could but not with the economics of an -800. The longer flights need the larger ac to lower the costs.



My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1984 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5118 times:

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 19):
I think he/she means in terms of profit. The larger aircraft will allow for a larger payload....which would allow them to have a presence without having a ton of flights per day.

Yes, that is what I (and Gary) meant. Thanks.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 20):
How much freight does WN move throughout their system?

TONS. $100,000,000 a year worth. LAX is the top station for cargo with 3 million pounds per month. The number 2 station moves 1 million pounds per month (MDW or LAS, I think). WN hauls about 20 million pounds per month.



My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
User currently offlineANCsupercub From United States of America, joined May 2007, 140 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4982 times:

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 7):
Also laughable. The state of Alaska represents 15% of AS's total ASMs. Do you really think those 15% are supporting a $400m+ per year pretax profit and 10% margins?

While I do not believe that Alaska is subsiding their lower 48 fares, they use their monopoly to gouge Alaskans. It is "laughable" to suggest that their monopoly (and therefore prices) are not a very important part of their business. I challenge anyone to pick random dates and try to find more expensive fares out of Seattle (that are similar length) then ANC-SEA. I picked a few dates and cities at random and here is what I came up with:

Dates: 1/28/12 - 2/4/12 (all are Alaska fares and found on expedia after taxes and fees)
Route followed by cheapest RT fare: ANC-SEA $874, SEA-DFW $607, SEA-MCI $406, SEA-STL $546, SEA-ORD $434
Largest fare difference - $440

Dates: 3/17/12 - 3/24/12 (all flights flow on alaska and found on expedia after taxes and fees)
Route: ANC-SEA $785, SEA-DFW $332, SEA-MCI $325, SEA-STL $261, SEA-ORD $290, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $510
Largest fare difference - $524

Dates: 4/7/12 - 4/14/12
Route: ANC-SEA $566, SEA-DFW $290, SEA- MCI $305, SEA-STL $239, SEA-ORD $320, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $560
Largest fare difference - $327

Dates: 5/5/12 - 5/19/12
Route: ANC-SEA $497, SEA-DFW $326, SEA- MCI $290, SEA-STL $261, SEA-ORD $321, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $510
Largest fare difference - $236

Dates: 8/18/12 - 8/25/12 (all flights flow on alaska and found on expedia after taxes and fees)
Route: ANC-SEA $497, SEA-DFW $396, SEA-MCI $305, SEA-STL $390, SEA-ORD $391, SEA-DCA (a much longer flight) $510
Largest fare difference - $192

I believe every route is longer than ANC-SEA. Barring DCA, every root is at least $100 more RT. The biggest difference is over 500 dollars. This is just ANC-SEA. It is a lot worse on other alaska routes. One might be able to make the argument that some of the prices on intra alaska are justified, but that doesn't explain ANC-SEA.

As an Alaskan I fly Alaska a lot (should hit 75k this year). They have offer an all around good product. However, they do rip us off.


http://www.transtats.bts.gov/airport...asp?pn=1&Airport=ANC&carrier=FACTS Just an interesting breakdown of ANC traffic. It said there were 698,000 passengers on ANC-SEA from Oct 2010 to September 2011. I would like to see the carrier % share on just flights to the lower 48. I do not know the criteria Southwest uses to choose their new routes, but there is demand.

[Edited 2012-01-23 03:10:30]

25 threeifbyair : AS is simply charging what the market will bear. Many people, you included, are apparently willing to pay the prevailing prices. I can usually fly SE
26 cschleic : That may be true, but it's probably more than 15% of revenue. Other issues for WN and Anchorage... * With the long distances, wouldn't it be difficul
27 RWA380 : This is an issue already addressed in another thread. WN is going to have red-eye flights starting this year. It will start with those red-eye's alre
28 hatbutton : Probably? Do you know for sure? Take a look at the load factors on all the intra-Alaska flights and anything that isn't ANC to the lower 48 and you w
29 ANCsupercub : When there is a monopoly you cannot really to the market to set a fair price. As you mention later, competition will not enter the market because the
30 Post contains images rotating14 : While I do not believe that Alaska is subsiding their lower 48 fares, they use their monopoly to gouge Alaskans. It is "laughable" to suggest that th
31 cschleic : Ok, so that means SEA-ANC flights had very high load factors if the overall intra-Alaska and ANC - lower 48 combined isn't dragged down by the intra-
32 ScottB : The problem is that many people would simply book AS at the new, lower fares -- just as we've seen on routes like SEA-GEG and SEA-BOI. Sure, consumer
33 sxf24 : When posters complain about the high cost of flying to, from and within Alaska, they often forget that the cost of operating in Alaska - particularly
34 cschleic : WN is known for stimulating new business as well as lowering fares. If they entered Alaska, would they bring down fares? Probably yes. Would some AS
35 SurfandSnow : I think ANC is a possibility, but WN simply has bigger priorities - Hawaii, Mexico, the Caribbean. Alaska simply doesn't have the draw that those plac
36 RoseFlyer : Southwest's percentage of revenue for freight is 1.1%. It's quite low, compared to other large US airlines like American, Delta or United which are i
37 ANCsupercub : Agreed, that is why they have the monopoly. That being said there is more demand on ANC-SEA than then other routes and I would hazard a guess that lo
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