China is a given, even though China Eastern, from PVG, and Air China, from PEK, and Cathay, from HKG already serve YVR. I would think CAN would be likely with CZ. After that, more frequency I suppose. I can't think of other cities that would generate enough traffic to directly feed YVR.
Korea ? Already served, and after ICN, there really isn't another destination.
Japan ? Already served, but I believe only from NRT. KIX and/or NGO might be able to generate sufficient traffic, but given the state of the economy, I'm doubtful for at least five years.
Philippines ? Already served and this would be mostly a low-yield market.
Oz ? Well, QF ceded the market to AC and there does not seem to be any indication that they will re-enter. AC might have a go at YVR-MEL once the 787s arrive. Perhaps JQ or VA might make a stab at it for the low cost market.
NZ ? Already served and it's possible AC might try once the 787s arrive.
So, then, there's Indonesia, Singapore (lots of history on that file), Malaysia, Thailand, and India. Most of these would be Canada-driven, I'd think, except for India, as there isn't a lot of economic connection between Canada and these nations.
YVR are making a big investment on this ($1.8B) so I assume they have done some homework.
IndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2403 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (1 year 4 months 1 hour ago) and read 6718 times:
I don't see YVR-MEL working, given the length and likelihood of low yielding traffic. They tried it once before and it lasted a short time and things may be different this time but I have my doubts.
China is the big focus for nearly all airports within range at the point in time. That's the obvious target to look at.
NUAir From Malaysia, joined Jun 2000, 1181 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (1 year 4 months 1 hour ago) and read 6704 times:
Thailand may be interesting. PTT is shipping plenty of people back and forth to their investments in Canadian oil sands so a connection in Vancouver would actually be pretty convenient and these would be business class pax. Not sure if it would justify daily service but maybe there is enough other economic connections between Canada and Thailand to make it work or just through STAR connections for AC and TG?
"How Many Assholes we got on this ship?" - Lord Helmet
connies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 3857 posts, RR: 13 Reply 4, posted (1 year 4 months 1 hour ago) and read 6664 times:
Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 1): I don't see YVR-MEL working, given the length and likelihood of low yielding traffic. They tried it once before and it lasted a short time and things may be different this time but I have my doubts.
AC operating into MEL didn't last long. Started in 2001, ended in 2002. Basically 9/11 and an economic cooling off killed it. Also, the flight was YYZ-HNL-MEL on a 763, scissoring with the then YVR-HNL-SYD (also 763) in HNL. A n/s YVR-MEL 787 has a much better chance of success, esp. if the YVR departure can be dovetailed with the daily YYZ-YVR-SYD service.
tayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1087 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (1 year 4 months ago) and read 6590 times:
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 4): A n/s YVR-MEL 787 has a much better chance of success, esp. if the YVR departure can be dovetailed with the daily YYZ-YVR-SYD service.
originating a new YVR-MEL flight in YUL would make it even more attractive from both ends - full widebody services between all 5 cities.
current YYZ-YVR-SYD-YVR-YYZ
8:20 pm → 10:15 pm YYZ-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada 33
11:45 pm → 10:20 am YVR-SYD S M T W T F S Air Canada 33
12:15 pm → 7:25 am SYD-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada 34
9:00 am → 4:20 pm YVR-YYZ S M T W T F S Air Canada 34
potential YUL-YVR-MEL-YVR-YUL
7:45 pm → 10:00 pm YYZ-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX (AC129 currently on 320)
11:25 pm → 10:30 am YVR-MEL S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX
12:30 pm → 8:00 am MEL-YVR S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX
9:30 am → 5:00 pm YVR-YYZ S M T W T F S Air Canada XXX (AC150 currently on 320)
the arrival back in Montreal ties in well for the plane to go through some maintenance then operate a European leg in the evening assuming 4-5 planes will eventually be based there.
YUL-YVR is about 20 minutes longer than YYZ-YVR, and YVR-MEL would be 40-45 minutes longer than YVR-SYD. A 787 could no doubt be turned around quicker than a 77L as well.
IndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2403 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (1 year 4 months ago) and read 6556 times:
YUL would be an interesting option. Good thinking.
My main query would be on yields, given the lack of business ties and the existing capacity into SYD.
Would a move to start MEL bring the SYD service back to a 787, in place of the 77L? This would give a daily SYD and a 3X weekly MEL flight, which would likely have less overall capacity increase but with expansion capacity on the latter if needed, with what should be a more efficient aircraft?
wedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5534 posts, RR: 5 Reply 7, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6432 times:
Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter): I would think CAN would be likely with CZ. After that, more frequency I suppose. I can't think of other cities that would generate enough traffic to directly feed YVR.
I thought China Southern already serves YVR that started last June. As some mentioned, YVR is missing west Asia and SE Asia. Singapore was the last SE Asian carrier to serve YVR. I would imagine that TG or VN could make a run at YVR.
pnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2046 posts, RR: 12 Reply 8, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6314 times:
Quoting tayser (Reply 5): Quoting connies4ever (Reply 4):A n/s YVR-MEL 787 has a much better chance of success, esp. if the YVR departure can be dovetailed with the daily YYZ-YVR-SYD service.
originating a new YVR-MEL flight in YUL would make it even more attractive from both ends - full widebody services between all 5 cities.
I like this idea. It is kind of like JET's flight from YYZ to BRU that co-ordinates with the two destinations in India. All Jet now has to do is add YVR to BRU. But we know that is mostly VFR traffic.
With both flights landing OZ flights landing in YVR close together people can switch between aircraft so YYZ passengers could switch to MEL and YUL switch to SYD.
threepoint From Canada, joined Oct 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 8 Reply 10, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6157 times:
Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter): So, then, there's Indonesia, Singapore (lots of history on that file), Malaysia, Thailand, and India. Most of these would be Canada-driven, I'd think, except for India, as there isn't a lot of economic connection between Canada and these nations.
Assuming Canada can solve its dairy/poultry protection issues and we are invited to join the Trans Pacific Partnership, the 'economic connection' could all very well change. I'd assume membership within the TPP will generate a lot more business passenger and cargo demand between Canada and various nations not currently served directly. And YVR is perfectly positioned to be the springboard from which airlines launch to & from Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and perhaps Chile as well.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
IrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1731 posts, RR: 5 Reply 11, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5859 times:
Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter): China is a given, even though China Eastern, from PVG, and Air China, from PEK, and Cathay, from HKG already serve YVR. I would think CAN would be likely with CZ. After that, more frequency I suppose. I can't think of other cities that would generate enough traffic to directly feed YVR.
I guess the question here is, how strong are AC's ties with Star partners in Asia? You have YVR flights on AC metal feeding into PEK, ICN and NRT, so that is 1-stop onto CA, OZ and NH respectively to get into mainland China, Japan and Korea, as well as SE Asia.
Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter): So, then, there's Indonesia, Singapore (lots of history on that file), Malaysia, Thailand, and India. Most of these would be Canada-driven, I'd think, except for India, as there isn't a lot of economic connection between Canada and these nations.
Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia? Ugh, idk...just such busted yields going between North America and those stations. Vancouver really is not THAT large of a city.
The nonstop Indian flights have been rumored off-and-on again for years, first with AC, then AI, then IT, it just seems like those will never happen. If Toronto couldn't support YYZDEL, then YVR likely cannot either. Neither Indian nor Canadian legacy carriers have the bandwidth to venture into loss-making ULH routes hoping to break even at some point in the future. The yield is simply not there.
But, as long as Canada-UAE bilaterals remain in place, the barriers to entry still remain low...the question is, how much can they afford to bleed?
YVR's network is pretty well-rounded as-is. You have 10 Asian carriers (CA, CZ, CI, CE, CX, BR, PR, NZ, JL, KE) plus service on AC to PEK, PVG, SEL, HKG, NRT and SYD.
That's pretty darn impressive for a city with a population of slightly less than 600,000 inhabitants, and an MSA of 2,116,581 individuals!!!
Viscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 21498 posts, RR: 24 Reply 12, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 5744 times:
Quoting connies4ever (Thread starter): China is a given, even though China Eastern, from PVG, and Air China, from PEK, and Cathay, from HKG already serve YVR. I would think CAN would be likely with CZ. After that, more frequency I suppose. I can't think of other cities that would generate enough traffic to directly feed YVR.
I don't see why the already large and rapidly-growing Chinese market doesn't have as much potential for adding direct service between many additional cities in China and North America, just like the many flights already operating to Europe from quite a few cities other than those already served by AC. Within the next 10 years I would bet there will be nonstops between at least 10 cities in China and major North American gateways. It will be a huge market with China's 1.3 billion population and rapidly growing middle class who want to travel and can increasingly afford to. You see more Chinese visitors in Europe now than Japanese.
zbbylw From Canada, joined Nov 2006, 1923 posts, RR: 7 Reply 13, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5660 times:
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 11): That's pretty darn impressive for a city with a population of slightly less than 600,000 inhabitants, and an MSA of 2,116,581 individuals!!!
The thing about YVR is it is very different from most US cities. First off the "600,000 inhabitants" is not an issue because Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, Richmond, New West, North Vancouver, West Vancouver, and to a lesser extent Abbotsford are all integrated into one city. The 2.1 million total is also out dated, it is closer to 2.4 or so now mostly due to immigration. Many of Vancouver's population is from overseas, to a far greater % than most cities and there for the number of flight/travelers may seem high for someone with no knowledge of the area. Another thing to note is YVR is technically in Richmond a town of even less than 600,000 people.
Viscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 21498 posts, RR: 24 Reply 14, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5629 times:
Quoting zbbylw (Reply 13): The 2.1 million total is also out dated, it is closer to 2.4 or so now mostly due to immigration. Many of Vancouver's population is from overseas, to a far greater % than most cities and there for the number of flight/travelers may seem high for someone with no knowledge of the area.
Quoting zbbylw (Reply 13): Another thing to note is YVR airport is technically in Richmond a town of even less than 600,000 people.
Metro Vancouver, including Richmond, not only has the highest proportion of ethnic Chinese in Canada, it is the most Asian city in the world outside of Asia. Since the late 1980s, waves of Chinese immigrants have refashioned a commercial district of Richmond bordered by No. 3 Road, Garden City Road, Alderbridge Way and Sea Island Way into a new Chinatown
Forty-five per cent of the residents of Richmond are ethnic Chinese, the highest rate in the country. Six out of 10 Richmond residents are new immigrants. And almost half of all Richmond residents do not speak English in their homes, according to the census. Like Richmond, north Surrey is another region of Metro Vancouver where one ethnic group, South Asians, predominates. Despite this, English remains the prevalent language of most signs in those Surrey enclaves.
threepoint From Canada, joined Oct 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 8 Reply 16, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5528 times:
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 11): That's pretty darn impressive for a city with a population of slightly less than 600,000 inhabitants, and an MSA of 2,116,581 individuals!!!
As was mentioned, these figures are a bit outdated. Keep in mind that YVR serves all of BC (4+ M) and a good deal of Alberta/Sask residents as well (as there are few eastbound nonstop options from these provinces). The catchment population is likely more than 8 million.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
JL downgraded NRT from 744 to 77E to 763. The fact it was one of the few international routes not cut must mean its worth something, but doesnt look a healthy market looking at this equipment downgrade. I hear the yields are terrible due to all the cheap packages. AC also fly and fluctuate seasonally between a 763 & 333. I believe CP then AC served KIX back in the day. I think AC announced HND a year or two ago, but never started it. NH are happy codesharing with AC.
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 9): Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 7):
I thought China Southern already serves YVR that started last June.
I checked YVR's site and you're right. Good catch !
3 per week (Mon/Wed/Fri) with a 77E - plus a 77F freighter too, think also 3/week! I hear loads & yields are good, would not be surprised to see an extra flight or two by the summer and eventually daily.
As to other prospects....
YVR is rumored to be an early destination for Skymark and their A380 adventure. Can only hurt JL IMO.
China is going to be #1. AC will be increasing frequency to existing destinations first, I believe HKG first and would not be surprised at a couple of new routes once 787's finally start arriving.
I can see places like SZX, TSN, CTU & XMN. The local carriers are all picking up A330's and with the recent widebody orders including 748 / A380 by the HNA Group, I would not be surprised to see someone at YVR from their home bases. I could see HK Airlines trying to compete with CX. Oasis HK tried and failed, maybe these guys will get it right and have deeper pockets to do so.
CA added a secondly daily with the 332 a while back now, they could grow with bigger equipment if necessary.
I think MU may go twice daily to PVG.
CX dropped a flight, but upgraded the daytime flight from 343 to 744. This would be an A380 route for them if there ever was one. Not sure if it could come back, they should consolidate before AC does IMO, but I think more competition will come from home.
Other than that, I dont actually know there is any real market for Malaysia & Thailand for example. I wondered if Air Asia X may have given YVR a try from KUL, but their bubble doesnt seem to be flying so high right now. Then again, they will have to send those 330's somewhere - not sure if they will have the legs for KUL-YVR though and a stop would make it even less feasible. One option could be via NAN, there is a sizeable Fijian population here and FJ pulled out a few years ago now, but they were using the wrong equipment in 737's via HNL.
As for India, look at the AC potential 787 routes thread. Dont see India any time soon, certainly not from YVR and there is no Indian carrier in any fit state to launch it. IT seriously looked at it 4-5 years ago when they were ordering 5 of every type of Airbus, and Vijay Mallya was here for a few days, but we know how that is going for them.
Australia - AC are doing well on SYD, but Im not convinced on MEL. I think it would be better served by Jetstar with a 787, though Im not convinced the 787 is going to be the game changer for long thin routes as some think, but thats for a different thread.
Another interesting tidbit from this conference outside the scope of this article (we were there) was re VS to LHR. Apparantly, they are not targeting O&D but looking for connecting pax and intend to go year round then daily. Connections to...... 5 places? Stick with BA, LH or KL metinks!
One thing from the article is the processing of baggage faster - a huge need!
As to spening money on security & safety, I guess thats what the new fence 4' higher than the old one with razor wire on top which has ruined things for photographers is in the name of..... and what a waste of money the engine run up bay is IMO - its facing east, the city is to the east, you only really hear the noise when there is a westerly wind, so you still hear the noise anyway - very smart. I sure hope all this money is not going to be further invested in crap like this.
CPA62 From Canada, joined Jan 2012, 29 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 5192 times:
Vancouver's 2011 estimated population should be around 2.4 million, this does not includes eastern suburbs
from Abbotsford east. The population of the lower mainland is approx 2.7 million.
Before YVR comes out with a plan to attract more Asian carriers, they need to convince the federal government
to ease up on the restrictions placed on carriers wanting access into Vancouver. There is also a lack of flights into the USA. YVR needs to address the problem of passengers using Seattle and Bellingham as a gateway into the US. More USA frequencies and destinations will help sustain and attract service from Asia?
A route to South America would also be nice, all be it wishfull thinking?
connies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 3857 posts, RR: 13 Reply 21, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4999 times:
Quoting CPA62 (Reply 19): A route to South America would also be nice, all be it wishfull thinking?
Well, of course, back in the day Canadian Pacific used to run DC-8-43s YVR-MEX-LIM-SCL-EZE. I think perhaps 3x weekly, with 1 stopping at YYC en route MEX. Given AC's current YYZ focus for most longhaul, it's not likely to happen. There is a YVR-MEX daily (I think A319), but I wonder if there is a sustainable YVR-LIM market (or SCL) ? Perhaps 3x 763 for each service, but then again where do you find the lift ?
connies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 3857 posts, RR: 13 Reply 23, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4920 times:
Quoting Akiestar (Reply 22): Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 7):
SE Asia. Singapore was the last SE Asian carrier to serve YVR. I would imagine that TG or VN could make a run at YVR.
Uh...the Philippines is in Southeast Asia and PR is still serving YVR.
Very true. Is MNL-YVR run nonstop ? There is a tag on to LAS. I believe the service is with 744, no ?
As for TG, most of the traffic is O&D low yield, so I don't see TG or anyone else dedicating a 77L/W so as to make the flight nonstop. Maybe on of their A345s if they still have them.
As for VN, hmmm...Vietnam is developing much faster than Thailand, so it's possible they could make an appearance at YVR in the not so distant future, but would it be with a 77W possibly nonstop, or a 763, if they have them, via an intermediate point.
Akiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 607 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (1 year 3 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4811 times:
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23): Very true. Is MNL-YVR run nonstop ? There is a tag on to LAS. I believe the service is with 744, no ?
MNL-YVR is non-stop and runs daily: three terminator and four with continuing service to LAS. The former uses the 77W, while the latter uses the A343.
25 ACT7: I personally don't see VS lasting much more than 2 - 3 years, and only seasonal. They are primarily an O&D VFR type of airline (despite their fan
26 CPA62: It will be interesting to see what effect this service will have on Vancouver passengers and yields. My guess is there will be some bleeding. I would
27 RAGAZZO777: Maybe not on AC metal, but LATAM (LP) could definitely fly GRU-LIM-YVR with the 767.
28 Viscount724: CP moved their Latin America gateway from YVR to YYZ in the 1980s. It proved more successful than YVR since YYZ works as a hub for all of Canada and
29 FlyboyOz: Two more asian airlines - China Airlines (B744) and Eva Air (B744). They also fly to Vancouver from Taipei (Taiwan) as well. They also can get more Ho
30 YVRLTN: Mostly 343 these days. Often 77W. There are quite a few South Americans here, and we move quite a bit of cargo to particularly Chile, Colombia &
31 ACT7: Don't forget that AC's flights to South America are aimed at European and Asian connecting pax through YYZ. I was on the SCL-EZE flight last year and
32 ACT7: I agree that I don't think too many people will drive to Seattle to catch an EK flight but all it will take is an interline agreement with someone as
33 YVRLTN: Exactly, Im thinking of the East Indian population looking for cheap fares for VFR. From Surrey for example, getting to YVR is not much more cost eff
34 trex8: And mainland Chinese pax especially with CI in Skyteam. Do the Taiwanese carriers have rights to fly from Canada to the US? YVr would be a good stop
35 longhauler: What you also have to remember, is that routes from Asia to South America are not much further through YYZ than YVR. And in come cases it is longer t
36 CPA62: No rights granted, EVA applied to get 5th freedom right into NYC years ago
37 TheCol: They can't. The only way to curb that is for the Feds to cut back on the taxes and fees for both YVR and the airlines that fly there. When WS moves i
38 YVRLTN: CZ increasing 5 weekly, X24 - a step i nthe right direction and not at all surprising.
39 ftornik: The fastest way to MEL may be through AKL. NZ is an AC code-share partner and flies YVR-AKL with tight connections to MEL. AC's own metal to MEL is a
40 connies4ever: I agree, and this applies also to YYZ - BUF and YUL - BTV. Even YWG - GFK to some degree. The airport authorities themselves have some level of respo
41 CPA62: SOmewhat realted to this subject, an article in the "Business in Vancouver" jan 31-feb 6 magazine story "Emirates Airline set to take another run at V
42 CPA62: regret the spelling errors, pressed the wrong tab!
43 YVRLTN: Yeah, from 200 kms down the road in SEA
44 mogandoCI: Surprising that they denied it to BR, but granted YVR-JFK to CX.....
45 lightsaber: I've always wondered why YVR wasn't a major hub from the US to Asia. IMHO, with *significant* additional US service, YVR would fill significant TPAC
46 Viscount724: That's no doubt because Canadian carriers also have 5th freedom rights to/from HKG although they're not being used currently. For decades CP Air oper
47 cslusarc: In the 1990s, I remember that CP flew YVR - HKG - TPE / BKK.
48 connies4ever: I wasn't aware that CP ever flew to TPE. I thought the route was YVR-HKG-BKK (BKK only on select days).
49 mogandoCI: Ahhh brings back memories... I've flown the YVR-HKG roundtrip at least 5/6 times... back then AirCanada is still a mostly east side airline
50 YVRSpeedBird: Actually, TPE was a non-stop terminator route from YVR. YVR-HKG-BKK was flown daily using 744 until mid-90's when CP flew YVR-HKG-BKK 4 x a week and
51 connector4you: After operating YVR - DEN in recent times (2007), Frontier just announced its new daily BLI - DEN to start May 24 2012 ... not necessarily, I'm sure
52 koruman: I would think that Brisbane and Melbourne could probably both support 788-sized aircraft configured 12 lie-flat Business, 21 (7 abreast) Premium Econo
53 mogandoCI: If AC/UA has JV/ATI across the Pacific, can they technically sell through seats YVR-MEL by flying YVR-SYD on AC then leverage UA's SYD-MEL tag ?
54 planemaker: From what I read in one of the articles, the "temporary" pax fee has become permanent and it seems that the mgmt at YVR are continuing to milk it (an
55 Viscount724: They don't as far as I know. Their JV/ATI (involving about 8 Star Alliance carriers) only covers transatlantic routes. ATI normally requires an open
56 ACT7: Westjet is focusing on YYC and YYZ. YVR is a bit of an after-thought - for now anyway.
57 threepoint: I will agree that the increase of the AIF at YVR is likely permanent. Rarely do organizations reduce or eliminate tolls, fees, surcharges etc unless
58 mogandoCI: If anything, YVR is one of my favorite medium sized airports. Very unique and elegant design by using eco/nature and First Nation elements, but not o
59 Kaiarahi: Rights are not granted to airlines, they're negotiated bilaterally between countries, and are typically reciprocal. The bilateral with Taiwan does no
60 YVRLTN: KE going daily vs 5 weekly June/July/August this summer, but no upgrade to 744, all flights continue to be operated by 77E, which is still an addition
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